Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z ...Update... Increasing west-southwesterly winds are expected near and west of the upper Snake River of ID this afternoon and evening. Although relative humidity will likely remain just above critical thresholds of 15 percent, sustained wind speeds at or above 20 mph should persist for a few hours across receptive fuels. Therefore, an additional small Elevated area has been included in the forecast for today for the aforementioned region. The rest of the forecast remains valid and accurate for NV. Please see the previous discussion for details pertaining to that region. ..Barnes.. 07/22/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0128 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025/ ...Synopsis... While mid-level winds will steadily weaken across the Great Basin today, enough flow across the Sierra and strong heating in Nevada will promote a weak surface trough in northern Nevada. This feature will drive downslope winds into parts of southern and central Nevada. Winds around 15 to perhaps 20 mph will occur in a confined zone. RH will fall to 10-15% by the afternoon. Local, marginally critical conditions may occur very briefly as well. A few hours of elevated fire weather is expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley later today into tonight. ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging will remain anchored over the MS Valley and Southeast today. A positively tilted upper trough will persist over the Northwest and northern Rockies, with enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow continuing though the period over the northern Plains. At the surface, a weak low is forecast to gradually develop eastward across western/central SD by this evening, with a lee trough extending southward from this low across the central High Plains. A convectively reinforced boundary extending northeastward from the surface low into northern MN may act as a focus for robust thunderstorm development later today. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Extensive convective overturning has occurred overnight across the northern Plains into parts of MN, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms generally remaining sub-severe while tracking east-northeastward along/north of the surface front. This activity has been aided by a southerly low-level jet across the Plains, which is forecast to gradually weaken though midday. While isolated hail or strong to severe gusts may occur with ongoing thunderstorms, the net effect of this convection may be to displace the surface boundary farther south than most guidance indicates. In the wake of this early day convection and associated weak mid-level shortwave trough, heights are forecast to remain neutral or even rise slightly through the day across much of ND/SD into MN. This weak/nebulous large-scale forcing casts considerable uncertainty regarding convective development with eastward extent across the Dakotas into MN this afternoon and evening. Even so, it does appear probable that thunderstorms will once again form along/near the Bighorns in northern WY/southern MT, as a weak embedded mid-level perturbation and related jet overspread the northern High Plains. This region will generally be post-frontal, but steep mid-level lapse rates combined with diurnal heating of the modestly moist low-level airmass should still aid in the development of at least weak instability by the time convection initiates this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear should support supercells initially, with associated threat for large to perhaps isolated very large hail. Some potential should exist for this convection to grow upscale this evening across parts of the Dakotas and pose a greater threat for severe/damaging winds overnight. But, uncertainty remains high regarding the placement of this possible cluster, and whether it will remain surface-based or elevated. Farther east into the upper MS Valley, it appears less likely that robust convection will develop before this evening due to the stabilizing influence of the ongoing morning activity. If thunderstorms can develop later, most short-term guidance continues to suggest that sufficient airmass recovery will occur to support severe convection with mainly a hail/wind threat. Sufficient low-level shear should also be present near the front to support some risk for a tornado. This activity would probably remain tied close the surface boundary, with less potential for a forward-propagating MCS into central/southern MN. Accordingly, have trimmed the southern extent of the Slight Risk in MN. Finally, a MCV related to extensive convection in KS yesterday is forecast to develop northeastward across IA this afternoon/evening. Sufficient instability and shear should be present with this feature to support an isolated threat for severe thunderstorms, assuming convection can develop and persist. ...Central High Plains... Scattered to numerous high-based thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/near the surface lee trough extending southward across the central High Plains. While low/mid-level flow and deep-layer shear are all expected to remain weak today across this region due to closer proximity to the upper ridge, low-level lapse rates should become steepened through the afternoon and early evening with ample daytime heating. Given the deeply mixed boundary layer forecast, any of this high-based convection could produce occasional strong to severe wind gusts. Have therefore expanded the Marginal Risk southward a bit into eastern CO and western KS to account for this potential. ...Southeast... A weak cold front will shift southward today across parts of GA/SC. A rather moist low-level airmass will be in place ahead of the front, with daytime heating encouraging the development of moderate to locally strong instability through the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms that develop along/ahead of the front, and along various sea breeze circulations, may be capable of producing occasional damaging winds, even though shear will remain weak. ..Gleason/Grams.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley later today into tonight. ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging will remain anchored over the MS Valley and Southeast today. A positively tilted upper trough will persist over the Northwest and northern Rockies, with enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow continuing though the period over the northern Plains. At the surface, a weak low is forecast to gradually develop eastward across western/central SD by this evening, with a lee trough extending southward from this low across the central High Plains. A convectively reinforced boundary extending northeastward from the surface low into northern MN may act as a focus for robust thunderstorm development later today. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Extensive convective overturning has occurred overnight across the northern Plains into parts of MN, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms generally remaining sub-severe while tracking east-northeastward along/north of the surface front. This activity has been aided by a southerly low-level jet across the Plains, which is forecast to gradually weaken though midday. While isolated hail or strong to severe gusts may occur with ongoing thunderstorms, the net effect of this convection may be to displace the surface boundary farther south than most guidance indicates. In the wake of this early day convection and associated weak mid-level shortwave trough, heights are forecast to remain neutral or even rise slightly through the day across much of ND/SD into MN. This weak/nebulous large-scale forcing casts considerable uncertainty regarding convective development with eastward extent across the Dakotas into MN this afternoon and evening. Even so, it does appear probable that thunderstorms will once again form along/near the Bighorns in northern WY/southern MT, as a weak embedded mid-level perturbation and related jet overspread the northern High Plains. This region will generally be post-frontal, but steep mid-level lapse rates combined with diurnal heating of the modestly moist low-level airmass should still aid in the development of at least weak instability by the time convection initiates this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear should support supercells initially, with associated threat for large to perhaps isolated very large hail. Some potential should exist for this convection to grow upscale this evening across parts of the Dakotas and pose a greater threat for severe/damaging winds overnight. But, uncertainty remains high regarding the placement of this possible cluster, and whether it will remain surface-based or elevated. Farther east into the upper MS Valley, it appears less likely that robust convection will develop before this evening due to the stabilizing influence of the ongoing morning activity. If thunderstorms can develop later, most short-term guidance continues to suggest that sufficient airmass recovery will occur to support severe convection with mainly a hail/wind threat. Sufficient low-level shear should also be present near the front to support some risk for a tornado. This activity would probably remain tied close the surface boundary, with less potential for a forward-propagating MCS into central/southern MN. Accordingly, have trimmed the southern extent of the Slight Risk in MN. Finally, a MCV related to extensive convection in KS yesterday is forecast to develop northeastward across IA this afternoon/evening. Sufficient instability and shear should be present with this feature to support an isolated threat for severe thunderstorms, assuming convection can develop and persist. ...Central High Plains... Scattered to numerous high-based thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/near the surface lee trough extending southward across the central High Plains. While low/mid-level flow and deep-layer shear are all expected to remain weak today across this region due to closer proximity to the upper ridge, low-level lapse rates should become steepened through the afternoon and early evening with ample daytime heating. Given the deeply mixed boundary layer forecast, any of this high-based convection could produce occasional strong to severe wind gusts. Have therefore expanded the Marginal Risk southward a bit into eastern CO and western KS to account for this potential. ...Southeast... A weak cold front will shift southward today across parts of GA/SC. A rather moist low-level airmass will be in place ahead of the front, with daytime heating encouraging the development of moderate to locally strong instability through the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms that develop along/ahead of the front, and along various sea breeze circulations, may be capable of producing occasional damaging winds, even though shear will remain weak. ..Gleason/Grams.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley later today into tonight. ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging will remain anchored over the MS Valley and Southeast today. A positively tilted upper trough will persist over the Northwest and northern Rockies, with enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow continuing though the period over the northern Plains. At the surface, a weak low is forecast to gradually develop eastward across western/central SD by this evening, with a lee trough extending southward from this low across the central High Plains. A convectively reinforced boundary extending northeastward from the surface low into northern MN may act as a focus for robust thunderstorm development later today. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Extensive convective overturning has occurred overnight across the northern Plains into parts of MN, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms generally remaining sub-severe while tracking east-northeastward along/north of the surface front. This activity has been aided by a southerly low-level jet across the Plains, which is forecast to gradually weaken though midday. While isolated hail or strong to severe gusts may occur with ongoing thunderstorms, the net effect of this convection may be to displace the surface boundary farther south than most guidance indicates. In the wake of this early day convection and associated weak mid-level shortwave trough, heights are forecast to remain neutral or even rise slightly through the day across much of ND/SD into MN. This weak/nebulous large-scale forcing casts considerable uncertainty regarding convective development with eastward extent across the Dakotas into MN this afternoon and evening. Even so, it does appear probable that thunderstorms will once again form along/near the Bighorns in northern WY/southern MT, as a weak embedded mid-level perturbation and related jet overspread the northern High Plains. This region will generally be post-frontal, but steep mid-level lapse rates combined with diurnal heating of the modestly moist low-level airmass should still aid in the development of at least weak instability by the time convection initiates this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear should support supercells initially, with associated threat for large to perhaps isolated very large hail. Some potential should exist for this convection to grow upscale this evening across parts of the Dakotas and pose a greater threat for severe/damaging winds overnight. But, uncertainty remains high regarding the placement of this possible cluster, and whether it will remain surface-based or elevated. Farther east into the upper MS Valley, it appears less likely that robust convection will develop before this evening due to the stabilizing influence of the ongoing morning activity. If thunderstorms can develop later, most short-term guidance continues to suggest that sufficient airmass recovery will occur to support severe convection with mainly a hail/wind threat. Sufficient low-level shear should also be present near the front to support some risk for a tornado. This activity would probably remain tied close the surface boundary, with less potential for a forward-propagating MCS into central/southern MN. Accordingly, have trimmed the southern extent of the Slight Risk in MN. Finally, a MCV related to extensive convection in KS yesterday is forecast to develop northeastward across IA this afternoon/evening. Sufficient instability and shear should be present with this feature to support an isolated threat for severe thunderstorms, assuming convection can develop and persist. ...Central High Plains... Scattered to numerous high-based thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/near the surface lee trough extending southward across the central High Plains. While low/mid-level flow and deep-layer shear are all expected to remain weak today across this region due to closer proximity to the upper ridge, low-level lapse rates should become steepened through the afternoon and early evening with ample daytime heating. Given the deeply mixed boundary layer forecast, any of this high-based convection could produce occasional strong to severe wind gusts. Have therefore expanded the Marginal Risk southward a bit into eastern CO and western KS to account for this potential. ...Southeast... A weak cold front will shift southward today across parts of GA/SC. A rather moist low-level airmass will be in place ahead of the front, with daytime heating encouraging the development of moderate to locally strong instability through the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms that develop along/ahead of the front, and along various sea breeze circulations, may be capable of producing occasional damaging winds, even though shear will remain weak. ..Gleason/Grams.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0732 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley later today into tonight. ...Synopsis... Large-scale upper ridging will remain anchored over the MS Valley and Southeast today. A positively tilted upper trough will persist over the Northwest and northern Rockies, with enhanced southwesterly mid-level flow continuing though the period over the northern Plains. At the surface, a weak low is forecast to gradually develop eastward across western/central SD by this evening, with a lee trough extending southward from this low across the central High Plains. A convectively reinforced boundary extending northeastward from the surface low into northern MN may act as a focus for robust thunderstorm development later today. ...Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley... Extensive convective overturning has occurred overnight across the northern Plains into parts of MN, with scattered to numerous thunderstorms generally remaining sub-severe while tracking east-northeastward along/north of the surface front. This activity has been aided by a southerly low-level jet across the Plains, which is forecast to gradually weaken though midday. While isolated hail or strong to severe gusts may occur with ongoing thunderstorms, the net effect of this convection may be to displace the surface boundary farther south than most guidance indicates. In the wake of this early day convection and associated weak mid-level shortwave trough, heights are forecast to remain neutral or even rise slightly through the day across much of ND/SD into MN. This weak/nebulous large-scale forcing casts considerable uncertainty regarding convective development with eastward extent across the Dakotas into MN this afternoon and evening. Even so, it does appear probable that thunderstorms will once again form along/near the Bighorns in northern WY/southern MT, as a weak embedded mid-level perturbation and related jet overspread the northern High Plains. This region will generally be post-frontal, but steep mid-level lapse rates combined with diurnal heating of the modestly moist low-level airmass should still aid in the development of at least weak instability by the time convection initiates this afternoon. Strong deep-layer shear should support supercells initially, with associated threat for large to perhaps isolated very large hail. Some potential should exist for this convection to grow upscale this evening across parts of the Dakotas and pose a greater threat for severe/damaging winds overnight. But, uncertainty remains high regarding the placement of this possible cluster, and whether it will remain surface-based or elevated. Farther east into the upper MS Valley, it appears less likely that robust convection will develop before this evening due to the stabilizing influence of the ongoing morning activity. If thunderstorms can develop later, most short-term guidance continues to suggest that sufficient airmass recovery will occur to support severe convection with mainly a hail/wind threat. Sufficient low-level shear should also be present near the front to support some risk for a tornado. This activity would probably remain tied close the surface boundary, with less potential for a forward-propagating MCS into central/southern MN. Accordingly, have trimmed the southern extent of the Slight Risk in MN. Finally, a MCV related to extensive convection in KS yesterday is forecast to develop northeastward across IA this afternoon/evening. Sufficient instability and shear should be present with this feature to support an isolated threat for severe thunderstorms, assuming convection can develop and persist. ...Central High Plains... Scattered to numerous high-based thunderstorms should develop this afternoon along/near the surface lee trough extending southward across the central High Plains. While low/mid-level flow and deep-layer shear are all expected to remain weak today across this region due to closer proximity to the upper ridge, low-level lapse rates should become steepened through the afternoon and early evening with ample daytime heating. Given the deeply mixed boundary layer forecast, any of this high-based convection could produce occasional strong to severe wind gusts. Have therefore expanded the Marginal Risk southward a bit into eastern CO and western KS to account for this potential. ...Southeast... A weak cold front will shift southward today across parts of GA/SC. A rather moist low-level airmass will be in place ahead of the front, with daytime heating encouraging the development of moderate to locally strong instability through the afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms that develop along/ahead of the front, and along various sea breeze circulations, may be capable of producing occasional damaging winds, even though shear will remain weak. ..Gleason/Grams.. 07/22/2025 Read more

000
ABNT20 KNHC 221130
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.


$$
Forecaster Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221124
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Jul 22 2025

For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

WW 0536 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 536 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW VVV TO 25 NW FAR. WW 536 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 221000Z. ..GRAMS..07/22/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 536 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC027-167-221000- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY WILKIN NDC017-077-221000- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CASS RICHLAND THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 536 SEVERE TSTM MN ND SD 220310Z - 221000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 536 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 PM CDT Mon Jul 21 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West Central Minnesota Southern North Dakota Northern South Dakota * Effective this Monday night and Tuesday morning from 1010 PM until 500 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...A cluster of thunderstorms in north-central South Dakota will track east-northeastward through the overnight period, with other scattered storms out ahead. Locally damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible with the stronger cells. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 80 miles west northwest of Mobridge SD to 45 miles south southeast of Fargo ND. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 535... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Hart Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance suggests that strongest destabilization (including large potential instability) by next weekend into early next week will become focused once again from the lee of the northern U.S. Rockies across and northeast of the middle and lower Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest. This is forecast to be supported by seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content, beneath a plume of steepening mid-level lapse rates near the southwestern periphery of an increasingly northwesterly regime, between building mid-level ridging along/east of the Rockies and another significant low digging southeast of the central Canadian Arctic latitudes through Hudson Bay. By next Sunday into Monday, it appears possible that this environment could become supportive of the evolution of one or two organizing, east-southeastward propagating convective systems. However, the forcing for any such development remains unclear, and probably will be tied to sub-synoptic perturbations with very low predictability at this extended range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance suggests that strongest destabilization (including large potential instability) by next weekend into early next week will become focused once again from the lee of the northern U.S. Rockies across and northeast of the middle and lower Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest. This is forecast to be supported by seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content, beneath a plume of steepening mid-level lapse rates near the southwestern periphery of an increasingly northwesterly regime, between building mid-level ridging along/east of the Rockies and another significant low digging southeast of the central Canadian Arctic latitudes through Hudson Bay. By next Sunday into Monday, it appears possible that this environment could become supportive of the evolution of one or two organizing, east-southeastward propagating convective systems. However, the forcing for any such development remains unclear, and probably will be tied to sub-synoptic perturbations with very low predictability at this extended range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance suggests that strongest destabilization (including large potential instability) by next weekend into early next week will become focused once again from the lee of the northern U.S. Rockies across and northeast of the middle and lower Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest. This is forecast to be supported by seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content, beneath a plume of steepening mid-level lapse rates near the southwestern periphery of an increasingly northwesterly regime, between building mid-level ridging along/east of the Rockies and another significant low digging southeast of the central Canadian Arctic latitudes through Hudson Bay. By next Sunday into Monday, it appears possible that this environment could become supportive of the evolution of one or two organizing, east-southeastward propagating convective systems. However, the forcing for any such development remains unclear, and probably will be tied to sub-synoptic perturbations with very low predictability at this extended range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance suggests that strongest destabilization (including large potential instability) by next weekend into early next week will become focused once again from the lee of the northern U.S. Rockies across and northeast of the middle and lower Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest. This is forecast to be supported by seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content, beneath a plume of steepening mid-level lapse rates near the southwestern periphery of an increasingly northwesterly regime, between building mid-level ridging along/east of the Rockies and another significant low digging southeast of the central Canadian Arctic latitudes through Hudson Bay. By next Sunday into Monday, it appears possible that this environment could become supportive of the evolution of one or two organizing, east-southeastward propagating convective systems. However, the forcing for any such development remains unclear, and probably will be tied to sub-synoptic perturbations with very low predictability at this extended range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance suggests that strongest destabilization (including large potential instability) by next weekend into early next week will become focused once again from the lee of the northern U.S. Rockies across and northeast of the middle and lower Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest. This is forecast to be supported by seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content, beneath a plume of steepening mid-level lapse rates near the southwestern periphery of an increasingly northwesterly regime, between building mid-level ridging along/east of the Rockies and another significant low digging southeast of the central Canadian Arctic latitudes through Hudson Bay. By next Sunday into Monday, it appears possible that this environment could become supportive of the evolution of one or two organizing, east-southeastward propagating convective systems. However, the forcing for any such development remains unclear, and probably will be tied to sub-synoptic perturbations with very low predictability at this extended range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance suggests that strongest destabilization (including large potential instability) by next weekend into early next week will become focused once again from the lee of the northern U.S. Rockies across and northeast of the middle and lower Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest. This is forecast to be supported by seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content, beneath a plume of steepening mid-level lapse rates near the southwestern periphery of an increasingly northwesterly regime, between building mid-level ridging along/east of the Rockies and another significant low digging southeast of the central Canadian Arctic latitudes through Hudson Bay. By next Sunday into Monday, it appears possible that this environment could become supportive of the evolution of one or two organizing, east-southeastward propagating convective systems. However, the forcing for any such development remains unclear, and probably will be tied to sub-synoptic perturbations with very low predictability at this extended range. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 251200Z - 301200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance suggests that strongest destabilization (including large potential instability) by next weekend into early next week will become focused once again from the lee of the northern U.S. Rockies across and northeast of the middle and lower Missouri Valley into Upper Midwest. This is forecast to be supported by seasonably high boundary-layer moisture content, beneath a plume of steepening mid-level lapse rates near the southwestern periphery of an increasingly northwesterly regime, between building mid-level ridging along/east of the Rockies and another significant low digging southeast of the central Canadian Arctic latitudes through Hudson Bay. By next Sunday into Monday, it appears possible that this environment could become supportive of the evolution of one or two organizing, east-southeastward propagating convective systems. However, the forcing for any such development remains unclear, and probably will be tied to sub-synoptic perturbations with very low predictability at this extended range. Read more

WW 0536 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 536 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE Y22 TO 45 NE ABR TO 25 SE JMS TO 25 ENE BIS. ..GRAMS..07/22/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 536 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC027-167-220940- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY WILKIN NDC003-015-017-043-073-077-081-093-220940- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES BURLEIGH CASS KIDDER RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT STUTSMAN SDC013-021-031-041-045-049-089-091-107-129-220940- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN CAMPBELL CORSON DEWEY EDMUNDS FAULK Read more

WW 0536 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 536 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNE Y22 TO 35 NE MBG TO 10 NNE BIS. ..GRAMS..07/22/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 536 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC027-167-220840- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY WILKIN NDC003-015-017-021-029-043-045-047-051-073-077-081-093-220840- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES BURLEIGH CASS DICKEY EMMONS KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT STUTSMAN SDC013-021-031-041-045-049-089-091-107-129-220840- SD . SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...LOWER MICHIGAN AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms could develop across parts of the Upper Midwest into Great Lakes region Thursday, accompanied by potential for producing damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a notable short wave trough may merge into the stronger westerlies across Ontario through Quebec, to the south of a lingering mid-level low slowly progressing east of Hudson Bay. It appears that this will be trailed by another increasingly sheared perturbation, progressing around the northwestern periphery of initially more prominent mid-level ridging centered near the Ohio Valley. This is forecast to lead to gradual mid-height falls across much of the Great Lakes region through this period, while mid/upper heights otherwise remain high across much of the southern Rockies, and central/southern Great Plains into middle and southern Atlantic Seaboard. In lower levels, a cold front initially across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region appears likely to advance southeastward across much of the remainder of the Great Lakes region Thursday through Thursday night. Southward across the Missouri Valley into the central and southern Great Plains, the front probably will weaken, but continuing southward advancement beneath the mid-level ridging remains more unclear. ...Rockies/Great Plains into Great Lakes... Models indicate that moderate to large potential instability will develop with insolation Thursday, along the surface front and within moist easterly flow across the high plains into Rockies. Stronger deep-layer mean flow/shear and synoptic forcing for ascent would seem to favor better potential for organized strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of the Midwest into Great Lakes region. However, the extent of this potential remains unclear at this time, as this may still be considerably impacted by sub-synoptic developments with low predictability at this time frame. Steeper lapse rates to the lee of the Rockies and across parts of the central and southern high plains could contribute to a risk for severe wind and perhaps hail in developing storms. However, in the presence of a generally benign large-scale synoptic environment, any such activity may remain highly sparse in coverage. ..Kerr.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...LOWER MICHIGAN AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms could develop across parts of the Upper Midwest into Great Lakes region Thursday, accompanied by potential for producing damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a notable short wave trough may merge into the stronger westerlies across Ontario through Quebec, to the south of a lingering mid-level low slowly progressing east of Hudson Bay. It appears that this will be trailed by another increasingly sheared perturbation, progressing around the northwestern periphery of initially more prominent mid-level ridging centered near the Ohio Valley. This is forecast to lead to gradual mid-height falls across much of the Great Lakes region through this period, while mid/upper heights otherwise remain high across much of the southern Rockies, and central/southern Great Plains into middle and southern Atlantic Seaboard. In lower levels, a cold front initially across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region appears likely to advance southeastward across much of the remainder of the Great Lakes region Thursday through Thursday night. Southward across the Missouri Valley into the central and southern Great Plains, the front probably will weaken, but continuing southward advancement beneath the mid-level ridging remains more unclear. ...Rockies/Great Plains into Great Lakes... Models indicate that moderate to large potential instability will develop with insolation Thursday, along the surface front and within moist easterly flow across the high plains into Rockies. Stronger deep-layer mean flow/shear and synoptic forcing for ascent would seem to favor better potential for organized strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of the Midwest into Great Lakes region. However, the extent of this potential remains unclear at this time, as this may still be considerably impacted by sub-synoptic developments with low predictability at this time frame. Steeper lapse rates to the lee of the Rockies and across parts of the central and southern high plains could contribute to a risk for severe wind and perhaps hail in developing storms. However, in the presence of a generally benign large-scale synoptic environment, any such activity may remain highly sparse in coverage. ..Kerr.. 07/22/2025 Read more