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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...LOWER MICHIGAN AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms could develop across parts of the Upper Midwest into Great Lakes region Thursday, accompanied by potential for producing damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a notable short wave trough may merge into the stronger westerlies across Ontario through Quebec, to the south of a lingering mid-level low slowly progressing east of Hudson Bay. It appears that this will be trailed by another increasingly sheared perturbation, progressing around the northwestern periphery of initially more prominent mid-level ridging centered near the Ohio Valley. This is forecast to lead to gradual mid-height falls across much of the Great Lakes region through this period, while mid/upper heights otherwise remain high across much of the southern Rockies, and central/southern Great Plains into middle and southern Atlantic Seaboard. In lower levels, a cold front initially across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region appears likely to advance southeastward across much of the remainder of the Great Lakes region Thursday through Thursday night. Southward across the Missouri Valley into the central and southern Great Plains, the front probably will weaken, but continuing southward advancement beneath the mid-level ridging remains more unclear. ...Rockies/Great Plains into Great Lakes... Models indicate that moderate to large potential instability will develop with insolation Thursday, along the surface front and within moist easterly flow across the high plains into Rockies. Stronger deep-layer mean flow/shear and synoptic forcing for ascent would seem to favor better potential for organized strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of the Midwest into Great Lakes region. However, the extent of this potential remains unclear at this time, as this may still be considerably impacted by sub-synoptic developments with low predictability at this time frame. Steeper lapse rates to the lee of the Rockies and across parts of the central and southern high plains could contribute to a risk for severe wind and perhaps hail in developing storms. However, in the presence of a generally benign large-scale synoptic environment, any such activity may remain highly sparse in coverage. ..Kerr.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...LOWER MICHIGAN AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms could develop across parts of the Upper Midwest into Great Lakes region Thursday, accompanied by potential for producing damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a notable short wave trough may merge into the stronger westerlies across Ontario through Quebec, to the south of a lingering mid-level low slowly progressing east of Hudson Bay. It appears that this will be trailed by another increasingly sheared perturbation, progressing around the northwestern periphery of initially more prominent mid-level ridging centered near the Ohio Valley. This is forecast to lead to gradual mid-height falls across much of the Great Lakes region through this period, while mid/upper heights otherwise remain high across much of the southern Rockies, and central/southern Great Plains into middle and southern Atlantic Seaboard. In lower levels, a cold front initially across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region appears likely to advance southeastward across much of the remainder of the Great Lakes region Thursday through Thursday night. Southward across the Missouri Valley into the central and southern Great Plains, the front probably will weaken, but continuing southward advancement beneath the mid-level ridging remains more unclear. ...Rockies/Great Plains into Great Lakes... Models indicate that moderate to large potential instability will develop with insolation Thursday, along the surface front and within moist easterly flow across the high plains into Rockies. Stronger deep-layer mean flow/shear and synoptic forcing for ascent would seem to favor better potential for organized strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of the Midwest into Great Lakes region. However, the extent of this potential remains unclear at this time, as this may still be considerably impacted by sub-synoptic developments with low predictability at this time frame. Steeper lapse rates to the lee of the Rockies and across parts of the central and southern high plains could contribute to a risk for severe wind and perhaps hail in developing storms. However, in the presence of a generally benign large-scale synoptic environment, any such activity may remain highly sparse in coverage. ..Kerr.. 07/22/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN IOWA...MUCH OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN...NORTHERN ILLINOIS...LOWER MICHIGAN AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO... ...SUMMARY... One or two clusters of thunderstorms could develop across parts of the Upper Midwest into Great Lakes region Thursday, accompanied by potential for producing damaging wind gusts. ...Discussion... Models indicate that a notable short wave trough may merge into the stronger westerlies across Ontario through Quebec, to the south of a lingering mid-level low slowly progressing east of Hudson Bay. It appears that this will be trailed by another increasingly sheared perturbation, progressing around the northwestern periphery of initially more prominent mid-level ridging centered near the Ohio Valley. This is forecast to lead to gradual mid-height falls across much of the Great Lakes region through this period, while mid/upper heights otherwise remain high across much of the southern Rockies, and central/southern Great Plains into middle and southern Atlantic Seaboard. In lower levels, a cold front initially across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region appears likely to advance southeastward across much of the remainder of the Great Lakes region Thursday through Thursday night. Southward across the Missouri Valley into the central and southern Great Plains, the front probably will weaken, but continuing southward advancement beneath the mid-level ridging remains more unclear. ...Rockies/Great Plains into Great Lakes... Models indicate that moderate to large potential instability will develop with insolation Thursday, along the surface front and within moist easterly flow across the high plains into Rockies. Stronger deep-layer mean flow/shear and synoptic forcing for ascent would seem to favor better potential for organized strong to severe thunderstorm development across parts of the Midwest into Great Lakes region. However, the extent of this potential remains unclear at this time, as this may still be considerably impacted by sub-synoptic developments with low predictability at this time frame. Steeper lapse rates to the lee of the Rockies and across parts of the central and southern high plains could contribute to a risk for severe wind and perhaps hail in developing storms. However, in the presence of a generally benign large-scale synoptic environment, any such activity may remain highly sparse in coverage. ..Kerr.. 07/22/2025 Read more

MD 1751 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 536... FOR NORTHERN SD AND SOUTHEAST ND
Mesoscale Discussion 1751 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0104 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Areas affected...northern SD and southeast ND Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 536... Valid 220604Z - 220730Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 536 continues. SUMMARY...A strong to isolated severe wind and hail threat may persist through the pre-dawn hours, mainly along parts of the North Dakota-South Dakota border area. DISCUSSION...Small bowing cluster across north-central SD has struggled to intensify with recent IR cloud-top warming and weakening of the radar reflectivity gradient. This trend may just be a short-term oscillation as the airmass remains amply unstable amid prevalent mid 70s surface dew points across eastern SD into southeast ND. Stronger low-level jet focus is over western SD per area VWP data, and this has supported deeper convective cores across far northwest SD atop the leading convective outflow. Amid stronger effective bulk shear, a few of these cores may produce isolated severe hail, and could likewise evolve into an emerging cluster to the east-southeast through dawn. Most evening CAM guidance suggests that the primary severe threat should still evolve out of the leading cluster across northeast SD and southeast ND. But this scenario will probably require renewed updrafts arcing to the northwest and southwest along the cluster's outflow to sustain any severe potential through dawn. ..Grams.. 07/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...UNR... LAT...LON 46350034 46950089 47310051 47559905 47539819 47179735 45979695 45229733 44869807 44499913 44510091 44970298 45330358 45710333 45600229 45550126 45750061 46350034 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0536 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 536 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE Y22 TO 40 SSW BIS TO 35 WNW BIS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1751. ..GRAMS..07/22/25 ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...ABR... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 536 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC027-167-220740- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CLAY WILKIN NDC003-015-017-021-029-037-043-045-047-051-059-065-073-077-081- 085-093-220740- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARNES BURLEIGH CASS DICKEY EMMONS GRANT KIDDER LAMOURE LOGAN MCINTOSH MORTON OLIVER RANSOM RICHLAND SARGENT SIOUX STUTSMAN SDC013-021-031-041-045-049-089-091-107-129-220740- Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Winds across the Great Basin will continue to weaken on Wednesday as the stronger upper-level winds depart into the northern Rockies and a weak cutoff low sits off the central California coast. This upper low will draw marginally greater mid-level moisture northward and provide weak lift. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from parts of northern California into far northwest/north-central Nevada near the Sierra Crest. A few storms may remain dry, though slow storm motions could allow some wetting rainfall locally. Given the state of fuels in these areas, some potential for new ignitions exists. ..Wendt.. 07/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Winds across the Great Basin will continue to weaken on Wednesday as the stronger upper-level winds depart into the northern Rockies and a weak cutoff low sits off the central California coast. This upper low will draw marginally greater mid-level moisture northward and provide weak lift. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from parts of northern California into far northwest/north-central Nevada near the Sierra Crest. A few storms may remain dry, though slow storm motions could allow some wetting rainfall locally. Given the state of fuels in these areas, some potential for new ignitions exists. ..Wendt.. 07/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Winds across the Great Basin will continue to weaken on Wednesday as the stronger upper-level winds depart into the northern Rockies and a weak cutoff low sits off the central California coast. This upper low will draw marginally greater mid-level moisture northward and provide weak lift. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from parts of northern California into far northwest/north-central Nevada near the Sierra Crest. A few storms may remain dry, though slow storm motions could allow some wetting rainfall locally. Given the state of fuels in these areas, some potential for new ignitions exists. ..Wendt.. 07/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Winds across the Great Basin will continue to weaken on Wednesday as the stronger upper-level winds depart into the northern Rockies and a weak cutoff low sits off the central California coast. This upper low will draw marginally greater mid-level moisture northward and provide weak lift. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from parts of northern California into far northwest/north-central Nevada near the Sierra Crest. A few storms may remain dry, though slow storm motions could allow some wetting rainfall locally. Given the state of fuels in these areas, some potential for new ignitions exists. ..Wendt.. 07/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Winds across the Great Basin will continue to weaken on Wednesday as the stronger upper-level winds depart into the northern Rockies and a weak cutoff low sits off the central California coast. This upper low will draw marginally greater mid-level moisture northward and provide weak lift. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from parts of northern California into far northwest/north-central Nevada near the Sierra Crest. A few storms may remain dry, though slow storm motions could allow some wetting rainfall locally. Given the state of fuels in these areas, some potential for new ignitions exists. ..Wendt.. 07/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Winds across the Great Basin will continue to weaken on Wednesday as the stronger upper-level winds depart into the northern Rockies and a weak cutoff low sits off the central California coast. This upper low will draw marginally greater mid-level moisture northward and provide weak lift. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from parts of northern California into far northwest/north-central Nevada near the Sierra Crest. A few storms may remain dry, though slow storm motions could allow some wetting rainfall locally. Given the state of fuels in these areas, some potential for new ignitions exists. ..Wendt.. 07/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Winds across the Great Basin will continue to weaken on Wednesday as the stronger upper-level winds depart into the northern Rockies and a weak cutoff low sits off the central California coast. This upper low will draw marginally greater mid-level moisture northward and provide weak lift. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from parts of northern California into far northwest/north-central Nevada near the Sierra Crest. A few storms may remain dry, though slow storm motions could allow some wetting rainfall locally. Given the state of fuels in these areas, some potential for new ignitions exists. ..Wendt.. 07/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Winds across the Great Basin will continue to weaken on Wednesday as the stronger upper-level winds depart into the northern Rockies and a weak cutoff low sits off the central California coast. This upper low will draw marginally greater mid-level moisture northward and provide weak lift. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from parts of northern California into far northwest/north-central Nevada near the Sierra Crest. A few storms may remain dry, though slow storm motions could allow some wetting rainfall locally. Given the state of fuels in these areas, some potential for new ignitions exists. ..Wendt.. 07/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Winds across the Great Basin will continue to weaken on Wednesday as the stronger upper-level winds depart into the northern Rockies and a weak cutoff low sits off the central California coast. This upper low will draw marginally greater mid-level moisture northward and provide weak lift. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from parts of northern California into far northwest/north-central Nevada near the Sierra Crest. A few storms may remain dry, though slow storm motions could allow some wetting rainfall locally. Given the state of fuels in these areas, some potential for new ignitions exists. ..Wendt.. 07/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...Synopsis... Winds across the Great Basin will continue to weaken on Wednesday as the stronger upper-level winds depart into the northern Rockies and a weak cutoff low sits off the central California coast. This upper low will draw marginally greater mid-level moisture northward and provide weak lift. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from parts of northern California into far northwest/north-central Nevada near the Sierra Crest. A few storms may remain dry, though slow storm motions could allow some wetting rainfall locally. Given the state of fuels in these areas, some potential for new ignitions exists. ..Wendt.. 07/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... While mid-level winds will steadily weaken across the Great Basin today, enough flow across the Sierra and strong heating in Nevada will promote a weak surface trough in northern Nevada. This feature will drive downslope winds into parts of southern and central Nevada. Winds around 15 to perhaps 20 mph will occur in a confined zone. RH will fall to 10-15% by the afternoon. Local, marginally critical conditions may occur very briefly as well. A few hours of elevated fire weather is expected. ..Wendt.. 07/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... While mid-level winds will steadily weaken across the Great Basin today, enough flow across the Sierra and strong heating in Nevada will promote a weak surface trough in northern Nevada. This feature will drive downslope winds into parts of southern and central Nevada. Winds around 15 to perhaps 20 mph will occur in a confined zone. RH will fall to 10-15% by the afternoon. Local, marginally critical conditions may occur very briefly as well. A few hours of elevated fire weather is expected. ..Wendt.. 07/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... While mid-level winds will steadily weaken across the Great Basin today, enough flow across the Sierra and strong heating in Nevada will promote a weak surface trough in northern Nevada. This feature will drive downslope winds into parts of southern and central Nevada. Winds around 15 to perhaps 20 mph will occur in a confined zone. RH will fall to 10-15% by the afternoon. Local, marginally critical conditions may occur very briefly as well. A few hours of elevated fire weather is expected. ..Wendt.. 07/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... While mid-level winds will steadily weaken across the Great Basin today, enough flow across the Sierra and strong heating in Nevada will promote a weak surface trough in northern Nevada. This feature will drive downslope winds into parts of southern and central Nevada. Winds around 15 to perhaps 20 mph will occur in a confined zone. RH will fall to 10-15% by the afternoon. Local, marginally critical conditions may occur very briefly as well. A few hours of elevated fire weather is expected. ..Wendt.. 07/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 AM CDT Tue Jul 22 2025 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...Synopsis... While mid-level winds will steadily weaken across the Great Basin today, enough flow across the Sierra and strong heating in Nevada will promote a weak surface trough in northern Nevada. This feature will drive downslope winds into parts of southern and central Nevada. Winds around 15 to perhaps 20 mph will occur in a confined zone. RH will fall to 10-15% by the afternoon. Local, marginally critical conditions may occur very briefly as well. A few hours of elevated fire weather is expected. ..Wendt.. 07/22/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more