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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Mon Dec 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 12/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0231 AM CST Mon Dec 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will prevail across the eastern U.S., resulting in surface high pressure and associated cool conditions overspreading much of the CONUS. As such, quiescent fire weather conditions may be expected over most locales. One exception may be the southern Florida Peninsula, where dry northwesterly surface flow (i.e. 5-10 mph winds amid 25-35 percent RH) will be in place for at least a few hours around afternoon peak heating. However, relatively weaker surface winds, along with the marginal receptiveness of fuels, suggest that wildfire spread potential should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Mon Dec 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 12/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0231 AM CST Mon Dec 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will prevail across the eastern U.S., resulting in surface high pressure and associated cool conditions overspreading much of the CONUS. As such, quiescent fire weather conditions may be expected over most locales. One exception may be the southern Florida Peninsula, where dry northwesterly surface flow (i.e. 5-10 mph winds amid 25-35 percent RH) will be in place for at least a few hours around afternoon peak heating. However, relatively weaker surface winds, along with the marginal receptiveness of fuels, suggest that wildfire spread potential should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1052 AM CST Mon Dec 02 2024 Valid 021700Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. ..Weinman.. 12/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0231 AM CST Mon Dec 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Broad mid-level troughing will prevail across the eastern U.S., resulting in surface high pressure and associated cool conditions overspreading much of the CONUS. As such, quiescent fire weather conditions may be expected over most locales. One exception may be the southern Florida Peninsula, where dry northwesterly surface flow (i.e. 5-10 mph winds amid 25-35 percent RH) will be in place for at least a few hours around afternoon peak heating. However, relatively weaker surface winds, along with the marginal receptiveness of fuels, suggest that wildfire spread potential should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Mon Dec 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough will persist over the eastern states today, while developing slowly eastward towards the western Atlantic through tonight. Rather cold mid-level temperatures will be present across the Great Lakes, which may support sporadic lightning flashes with ongoing lake effect snow bands. The best chance for isolated lightning appears to be with the band over Lake Huron. Across deep south TX, the potential for thunderstorms over land appears lower than earlier, as a stout cap noted on the observed 12Z BRO sounding will likely inhibit deep convection. While there may still be some chance for thunderstorms along/near a coastal surface front, the better lightning potential should tend to remain offshore through the end of the period. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Mon Dec 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough will persist over the eastern states today, while developing slowly eastward towards the western Atlantic through tonight. Rather cold mid-level temperatures will be present across the Great Lakes, which may support sporadic lightning flashes with ongoing lake effect snow bands. The best chance for isolated lightning appears to be with the band over Lake Huron. Across deep south TX, the potential for thunderstorms over land appears lower than earlier, as a stout cap noted on the observed 12Z BRO sounding will likely inhibit deep convection. While there may still be some chance for thunderstorms along/near a coastal surface front, the better lightning potential should tend to remain offshore through the end of the period. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Mon Dec 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough will persist over the eastern states today, while developing slowly eastward towards the western Atlantic through tonight. Rather cold mid-level temperatures will be present across the Great Lakes, which may support sporadic lightning flashes with ongoing lake effect snow bands. The best chance for isolated lightning appears to be with the band over Lake Huron. Across deep south TX, the potential for thunderstorms over land appears lower than earlier, as a stout cap noted on the observed 12Z BRO sounding will likely inhibit deep convection. While there may still be some chance for thunderstorms along/near a coastal surface front, the better lightning potential should tend to remain offshore through the end of the period. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Mon Dec 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough will persist over the eastern states today, while developing slowly eastward towards the western Atlantic through tonight. Rather cold mid-level temperatures will be present across the Great Lakes, which may support sporadic lightning flashes with ongoing lake effect snow bands. The best chance for isolated lightning appears to be with the band over Lake Huron. Across deep south TX, the potential for thunderstorms over land appears lower than earlier, as a stout cap noted on the observed 12Z BRO sounding will likely inhibit deep convection. While there may still be some chance for thunderstorms along/near a coastal surface front, the better lightning potential should tend to remain offshore through the end of the period. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Mon Dec 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough will persist over the eastern states today, while developing slowly eastward towards the western Atlantic through tonight. Rather cold mid-level temperatures will be present across the Great Lakes, which may support sporadic lightning flashes with ongoing lake effect snow bands. The best chance for isolated lightning appears to be with the band over Lake Huron. Across deep south TX, the potential for thunderstorms over land appears lower than earlier, as a stout cap noted on the observed 12Z BRO sounding will likely inhibit deep convection. While there may still be some chance for thunderstorms along/near a coastal surface front, the better lightning potential should tend to remain offshore through the end of the period. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1020 AM CST Mon Dec 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough will persist over the eastern states today, while developing slowly eastward towards the western Atlantic through tonight. Rather cold mid-level temperatures will be present across the Great Lakes, which may support sporadic lightning flashes with ongoing lake effect snow bands. The best chance for isolated lightning appears to be with the band over Lake Huron. Across deep south TX, the potential for thunderstorms over land appears lower than earlier, as a stout cap noted on the observed 12Z BRO sounding will likely inhibit deep convection. While there may still be some chance for thunderstorms along/near a coastal surface front, the better lightning potential should tend to remain offshore through the end of the period. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Dec 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Longwave troughing will remain prevalent over the East with continued surface high pressure and mostly dry/stable conditions east of the Rockies. This scenario will considerably limit deep convective potential. A couple of lightning flashes could occur across parts of Deep South Texas, in conjunction with relatively rich low-level moisture and weak but persistent forcing for ascent. Low-topped convective snow bands, potentially including a couple of lightning flashes, are also expected over portions of the Great Lakes today. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Dec 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Longwave troughing will remain prevalent over the East with continued surface high pressure and mostly dry/stable conditions east of the Rockies. This scenario will considerably limit deep convective potential. A couple of lightning flashes could occur across parts of Deep South Texas, in conjunction with relatively rich low-level moisture and weak but persistent forcing for ascent. Low-topped convective snow bands, potentially including a couple of lightning flashes, are also expected over portions of the Great Lakes today. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Dec 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Longwave troughing will remain prevalent over the East with continued surface high pressure and mostly dry/stable conditions east of the Rockies. This scenario will considerably limit deep convective potential. A couple of lightning flashes could occur across parts of Deep South Texas, in conjunction with relatively rich low-level moisture and weak but persistent forcing for ascent. Low-topped convective snow bands, potentially including a couple of lightning flashes, are also expected over portions of the Great Lakes today. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Dec 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Longwave troughing will remain prevalent over the East with continued surface high pressure and mostly dry/stable conditions east of the Rockies. This scenario will considerably limit deep convective potential. A couple of lightning flashes could occur across parts of Deep South Texas, in conjunction with relatively rich low-level moisture and weak but persistent forcing for ascent. Low-topped convective snow bands, potentially including a couple of lightning flashes, are also expected over portions of the Great Lakes today. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Dec 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Longwave troughing will remain prevalent over the East with continued surface high pressure and mostly dry/stable conditions east of the Rockies. This scenario will considerably limit deep convective potential. A couple of lightning flashes could occur across parts of Deep South Texas, in conjunction with relatively rich low-level moisture and weak but persistent forcing for ascent. Low-topped convective snow bands, potentially including a couple of lightning flashes, are also expected over portions of the Great Lakes today. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Dec 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Longwave troughing will remain prevalent over the East with continued surface high pressure and mostly dry/stable conditions east of the Rockies. This scenario will considerably limit deep convective potential. A couple of lightning flashes could occur across parts of Deep South Texas, in conjunction with relatively rich low-level moisture and weak but persistent forcing for ascent. Low-topped convective snow bands, potentially including a couple of lightning flashes, are also expected over portions of the Great Lakes today. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0650 AM CST Mon Dec 02 2024 Valid 021300Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Longwave troughing will remain prevalent over the East with continued surface high pressure and mostly dry/stable conditions east of the Rockies. This scenario will considerably limit deep convective potential. A couple of lightning flashes could occur across parts of Deep South Texas, in conjunction with relatively rich low-level moisture and weak but persistent forcing for ascent. Low-topped convective snow bands, potentially including a couple of lightning flashes, are also expected over portions of the Great Lakes today. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/02/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CST Mon Dec 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong cold front will move into the Gulf on Thursday morning with a dry, continental polar airmass to spread across the eastern CONUS in its wake. This will keep thunderstorm activity limited to far south Texas late this week and into the early part of the weekend. Eventually, the moist sector will advect inland across Texas and the ArkLaTex ahead of an approaching mid-level trough late on Saturday and on Sunday. The associated cold front will likely trigger some thunderstorm activity on Sunday and Monday. However, instability appears quite limited at this time, and therefore, a substantial severe weather threat appears unlikely during the Day 4 to 8 period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CST Mon Dec 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong cold front will move into the Gulf on Thursday morning with a dry, continental polar airmass to spread across the eastern CONUS in its wake. This will keep thunderstorm activity limited to far south Texas late this week and into the early part of the weekend. Eventually, the moist sector will advect inland across Texas and the ArkLaTex ahead of an approaching mid-level trough late on Saturday and on Sunday. The associated cold front will likely trigger some thunderstorm activity on Sunday and Monday. However, instability appears quite limited at this time, and therefore, a substantial severe weather threat appears unlikely during the Day 4 to 8 period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CST Mon Dec 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong cold front will move into the Gulf on Thursday morning with a dry, continental polar airmass to spread across the eastern CONUS in its wake. This will keep thunderstorm activity limited to far south Texas late this week and into the early part of the weekend. Eventually, the moist sector will advect inland across Texas and the ArkLaTex ahead of an approaching mid-level trough late on Saturday and on Sunday. The associated cold front will likely trigger some thunderstorm activity on Sunday and Monday. However, instability appears quite limited at this time, and therefore, a substantial severe weather threat appears unlikely during the Day 4 to 8 period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CST Mon Dec 02 2024 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong cold front will move into the Gulf on Thursday morning with a dry, continental polar airmass to spread across the eastern CONUS in its wake. This will keep thunderstorm activity limited to far south Texas late this week and into the early part of the weekend. Eventually, the moist sector will advect inland across Texas and the ArkLaTex ahead of an approaching mid-level trough late on Saturday and on Sunday. The associated cold front will likely trigger some thunderstorm activity on Sunday and Monday. However, instability appears quite limited at this time, and therefore, a substantial severe weather threat appears unlikely during the Day 4 to 8 period. Read more