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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CST Mon Dec 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An amplifying midlevel trough will advance from the Midwest through the Northeast into the weekend, while an attendant/deepening surface low tracks eastward across eastern Canada. On the backside of this system, a cold air mass will infiltrate the eastern half of the CONUS, limiting fire-weather concerns. Thereafter, medium-range guidance depicts a large-scale trough developing over the Rockies, and an upstream ridge over the West Coast. Substantial spread among the guidance limits forecast confidence into early next week, though trends will be monitored for dry offshore flow across southern CA. ..Weinman.. 12/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CST Mon Dec 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An amplifying midlevel trough will advance from the Midwest through the Northeast into the weekend, while an attendant/deepening surface low tracks eastward across eastern Canada. On the backside of this system, a cold air mass will infiltrate the eastern half of the CONUS, limiting fire-weather concerns. Thereafter, medium-range guidance depicts a large-scale trough developing over the Rockies, and an upstream ridge over the West Coast. Substantial spread among the guidance limits forecast confidence into early next week, though trends will be monitored for dry offshore flow across southern CA. ..Weinman.. 12/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CST Mon Dec 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An amplifying midlevel trough will advance from the Midwest through the Northeast into the weekend, while an attendant/deepening surface low tracks eastward across eastern Canada. On the backside of this system, a cold air mass will infiltrate the eastern half of the CONUS, limiting fire-weather concerns. Thereafter, medium-range guidance depicts a large-scale trough developing over the Rockies, and an upstream ridge over the West Coast. Substantial spread among the guidance limits forecast confidence into early next week, though trends will be monitored for dry offshore flow across southern CA. ..Weinman.. 12/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CST Mon Dec 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An amplifying midlevel trough will advance from the Midwest through the Northeast into the weekend, while an attendant/deepening surface low tracks eastward across eastern Canada. On the backside of this system, a cold air mass will infiltrate the eastern half of the CONUS, limiting fire-weather concerns. Thereafter, medium-range guidance depicts a large-scale trough developing over the Rockies, and an upstream ridge over the West Coast. Substantial spread among the guidance limits forecast confidence into early next week, though trends will be monitored for dry offshore flow across southern CA. ..Weinman.. 12/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 PM CST Mon Dec 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 101200Z An amplifying midlevel trough will advance from the Midwest through the Northeast into the weekend, while an attendant/deepening surface low tracks eastward across eastern Canada. On the backside of this system, a cold air mass will infiltrate the eastern half of the CONUS, limiting fire-weather concerns. Thereafter, medium-range guidance depicts a large-scale trough developing over the Rockies, and an upstream ridge over the West Coast. Substantial spread among the guidance limits forecast confidence into early next week, though trends will be monitored for dry offshore flow across southern CA. ..Weinman.. 12/02/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Mon Dec 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Mon Dec 02 2024/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough will persist over the eastern states today, while developing slowly eastward towards the western Atlantic through tonight. Rather cold mid-level temperatures will be present across the Great Lakes, which may support sporadic lightning flashes with ongoing lake effect snow bands. The best chance for isolated lightning appears to be with the band over Lake Huron. Across deep south TX, the potential for thunderstorms over land appears lower than earlier, as a stout cap noted on the observed 12Z BRO sounding will likely inhibit deep convection. While there may still be some chance for thunderstorms along/near a coastal surface front, the better lightning potential should tend to remain offshore through the end of the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Mon Dec 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Mon Dec 02 2024/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough will persist over the eastern states today, while developing slowly eastward towards the western Atlantic through tonight. Rather cold mid-level temperatures will be present across the Great Lakes, which may support sporadic lightning flashes with ongoing lake effect snow bands. The best chance for isolated lightning appears to be with the band over Lake Huron. Across deep south TX, the potential for thunderstorms over land appears lower than earlier, as a stout cap noted on the observed 12Z BRO sounding will likely inhibit deep convection. While there may still be some chance for thunderstorms along/near a coastal surface front, the better lightning potential should tend to remain offshore through the end of the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Mon Dec 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Mon Dec 02 2024/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough will persist over the eastern states today, while developing slowly eastward towards the western Atlantic through tonight. Rather cold mid-level temperatures will be present across the Great Lakes, which may support sporadic lightning flashes with ongoing lake effect snow bands. The best chance for isolated lightning appears to be with the band over Lake Huron. Across deep south TX, the potential for thunderstorms over land appears lower than earlier, as a stout cap noted on the observed 12Z BRO sounding will likely inhibit deep convection. While there may still be some chance for thunderstorms along/near a coastal surface front, the better lightning potential should tend to remain offshore through the end of the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Mon Dec 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Mon Dec 02 2024/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough will persist over the eastern states today, while developing slowly eastward towards the western Atlantic through tonight. Rather cold mid-level temperatures will be present across the Great Lakes, which may support sporadic lightning flashes with ongoing lake effect snow bands. The best chance for isolated lightning appears to be with the band over Lake Huron. Across deep south TX, the potential for thunderstorms over land appears lower than earlier, as a stout cap noted on the observed 12Z BRO sounding will likely inhibit deep convection. While there may still be some chance for thunderstorms along/near a coastal surface front, the better lightning potential should tend to remain offshore through the end of the period. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 PM CST Mon Dec 02 2024 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1020 AM CST Mon Dec 02 2024/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough will persist over the eastern states today, while developing slowly eastward towards the western Atlantic through tonight. Rather cold mid-level temperatures will be present across the Great Lakes, which may support sporadic lightning flashes with ongoing lake effect snow bands. The best chance for isolated lightning appears to be with the band over Lake Huron. Across deep south TX, the potential for thunderstorms over land appears lower than earlier, as a stout cap noted on the observed 12Z BRO sounding will likely inhibit deep convection. While there may still be some chance for thunderstorms along/near a coastal surface front, the better lightning potential should tend to remain offshore through the end of the period. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Mon Dec 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 12/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0232 AM CST Mon Dec 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will continue overspread the southeast quadrant of the U.S. as a mid-level shortwave trough traverses the eastern CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday). Overall cool or moist surface conditions will be present over most areas, resulting in relatively quiescent fire weather conditions. The southern Florida Peninsula may still experience dry 5-10 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 25-35 percent RH during the afternoon. However, marginal fuel receptiveness precludes fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Mon Dec 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 12/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0232 AM CST Mon Dec 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will continue overspread the southeast quadrant of the U.S. as a mid-level shortwave trough traverses the eastern CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday). Overall cool or moist surface conditions will be present over most areas, resulting in relatively quiescent fire weather conditions. The southern Florida Peninsula may still experience dry 5-10 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 25-35 percent RH during the afternoon. However, marginal fuel receptiveness precludes fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Mon Dec 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 12/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0232 AM CST Mon Dec 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will continue overspread the southeast quadrant of the U.S. as a mid-level shortwave trough traverses the eastern CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday). Overall cool or moist surface conditions will be present over most areas, resulting in relatively quiescent fire weather conditions. The southern Florida Peninsula may still experience dry 5-10 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 25-35 percent RH during the afternoon. However, marginal fuel receptiveness precludes fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Mon Dec 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 12/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0232 AM CST Mon Dec 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will continue overspread the southeast quadrant of the U.S. as a mid-level shortwave trough traverses the eastern CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday). Overall cool or moist surface conditions will be present over most areas, resulting in relatively quiescent fire weather conditions. The southern Florida Peninsula may still experience dry 5-10 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 25-35 percent RH during the afternoon. However, marginal fuel receptiveness precludes fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CST Mon Dec 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 12/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0232 AM CST Mon Dec 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will continue overspread the southeast quadrant of the U.S. as a mid-level shortwave trough traverses the eastern CONUS tomorrow (Tuesday). Overall cool or moist surface conditions will be present over most areas, resulting in relatively quiescent fire weather conditions. The southern Florida Peninsula may still experience dry 5-10 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds amid 25-35 percent RH during the afternoon. However, marginal fuel receptiveness precludes fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Mon Dec 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible from East Texas into the ArkLaMiss on Wednesday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong shortwave trough and accompanying intense jet streak are forecast to progress quickly southeastward from the Canadian Prairies/northern Plains through the Upper Midwest, Upper Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley on Wednesday. By early Thursday morning, the mid-latitude cyclone associated with this shortwave is forecast to be over the Lower Great Lakes, with the strong jet streak (i.e. over 120 kt at 500 mb) stretching through its base from IN through the Mid-Atlantic. Strong height falls and cold mid-level temperatures will spread eastward with this system, but the cold, dry, and stable airmass in place across the region will preclude thunderstorm development. Some moderate low-level moisture advection is anticipated from the TX Coast into the Lower MS Valley, with mid 60s dewpoints likely extending from the Middle TX Coastal Plain into far southwest LA by late Wednesday afternoon. Enhanced low/mid-level flow will persist throughout the day across this region, contributing to a large area of precipitation from the Middle TX Coast through east and much of LA and southern AR. A few deeper updrafts are possible embedded within this larger area of precipitation, with occasional lightning flashes possible throughout the afternoon and overnight. ..Mosier.. 12/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Mon Dec 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible from East Texas into the ArkLaMiss on Wednesday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong shortwave trough and accompanying intense jet streak are forecast to progress quickly southeastward from the Canadian Prairies/northern Plains through the Upper Midwest, Upper Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley on Wednesday. By early Thursday morning, the mid-latitude cyclone associated with this shortwave is forecast to be over the Lower Great Lakes, with the strong jet streak (i.e. over 120 kt at 500 mb) stretching through its base from IN through the Mid-Atlantic. Strong height falls and cold mid-level temperatures will spread eastward with this system, but the cold, dry, and stable airmass in place across the region will preclude thunderstorm development. Some moderate low-level moisture advection is anticipated from the TX Coast into the Lower MS Valley, with mid 60s dewpoints likely extending from the Middle TX Coastal Plain into far southwest LA by late Wednesday afternoon. Enhanced low/mid-level flow will persist throughout the day across this region, contributing to a large area of precipitation from the Middle TX Coast through east and much of LA and southern AR. A few deeper updrafts are possible embedded within this larger area of precipitation, with occasional lightning flashes possible throughout the afternoon and overnight. ..Mosier.. 12/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Mon Dec 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible from East Texas into the ArkLaMiss on Wednesday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong shortwave trough and accompanying intense jet streak are forecast to progress quickly southeastward from the Canadian Prairies/northern Plains through the Upper Midwest, Upper Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley on Wednesday. By early Thursday morning, the mid-latitude cyclone associated with this shortwave is forecast to be over the Lower Great Lakes, with the strong jet streak (i.e. over 120 kt at 500 mb) stretching through its base from IN through the Mid-Atlantic. Strong height falls and cold mid-level temperatures will spread eastward with this system, but the cold, dry, and stable airmass in place across the region will preclude thunderstorm development. Some moderate low-level moisture advection is anticipated from the TX Coast into the Lower MS Valley, with mid 60s dewpoints likely extending from the Middle TX Coastal Plain into far southwest LA by late Wednesday afternoon. Enhanced low/mid-level flow will persist throughout the day across this region, contributing to a large area of precipitation from the Middle TX Coast through east and much of LA and southern AR. A few deeper updrafts are possible embedded within this larger area of precipitation, with occasional lightning flashes possible throughout the afternoon and overnight. ..Mosier.. 12/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Mon Dec 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible from East Texas into the ArkLaMiss on Wednesday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong shortwave trough and accompanying intense jet streak are forecast to progress quickly southeastward from the Canadian Prairies/northern Plains through the Upper Midwest, Upper Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley on Wednesday. By early Thursday morning, the mid-latitude cyclone associated with this shortwave is forecast to be over the Lower Great Lakes, with the strong jet streak (i.e. over 120 kt at 500 mb) stretching through its base from IN through the Mid-Atlantic. Strong height falls and cold mid-level temperatures will spread eastward with this system, but the cold, dry, and stable airmass in place across the region will preclude thunderstorm development. Some moderate low-level moisture advection is anticipated from the TX Coast into the Lower MS Valley, with mid 60s dewpoints likely extending from the Middle TX Coastal Plain into far southwest LA by late Wednesday afternoon. Enhanced low/mid-level flow will persist throughout the day across this region, contributing to a large area of precipitation from the Middle TX Coast through east and much of LA and southern AR. A few deeper updrafts are possible embedded within this larger area of precipitation, with occasional lightning flashes possible throughout the afternoon and overnight. ..Mosier.. 12/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0125 PM CST Mon Dec 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible from East Texas into the ArkLaMiss on Wednesday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong shortwave trough and accompanying intense jet streak are forecast to progress quickly southeastward from the Canadian Prairies/northern Plains through the Upper Midwest, Upper Great Lakes, and Ohio Valley on Wednesday. By early Thursday morning, the mid-latitude cyclone associated with this shortwave is forecast to be over the Lower Great Lakes, with the strong jet streak (i.e. over 120 kt at 500 mb) stretching through its base from IN through the Mid-Atlantic. Strong height falls and cold mid-level temperatures will spread eastward with this system, but the cold, dry, and stable airmass in place across the region will preclude thunderstorm development. Some moderate low-level moisture advection is anticipated from the TX Coast into the Lower MS Valley, with mid 60s dewpoints likely extending from the Middle TX Coastal Plain into far southwest LA by late Wednesday afternoon. Enhanced low/mid-level flow will persist throughout the day across this region, contributing to a large area of precipitation from the Middle TX Coast through east and much of LA and southern AR. A few deeper updrafts are possible embedded within this larger area of precipitation, with occasional lightning flashes possible throughout the afternoon and overnight. ..Mosier.. 12/02/2024 Read more