Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...Update... The latest model data suite continues to suggest elevated fire weather conditions for this afternoon across portions of eastern WY due to warm, dry, and breezy westerly downslope flow. Another area of minor concern will be ahead of an approaching upper level trough from southeastern NM through the Caprock of TX. A narrow corridor of drying, and southwest sustained winds near 15 to 20 mph, could support a couple of hours of localized elevated fire weather there. However, recent trends in relatively higher boundary layer moisture and increasing cloud cover over this region (less mixing expected) do not warrant an additional Elevated area at this time. Please see the previous discussion for details pertaining to the Southwest. ..Barnes.. 09/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Central/Northern Plains... A shortwave trough moving across the Canadian Provinces will bring enhanced westerly flow across the northern Rockies. Warm and dry downslope flow east of the Bighorn Mountains will be likely across eastern Wyoming into portions of far southeastern South Dakota. A period of elevated fire weather conditions will be likely, with relative humidity reductions to 10-15% amid sustained westerly winds 15-20 mph. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support wildfire spread, with little observed rainfall in the last 30 days. ...Southwest... An enhanced belt of mid-level flow within a deepening mid-level low will spread across the Southwest. Boundary-layer mixing into this strong deep-layer flow will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of western NM and eastern AZ during this afternoon. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible. Fuels across the southwest are generally unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time. Elsewhere, a minimal overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...Update... The latest model data suite continues to suggest elevated fire weather conditions for this afternoon across portions of eastern WY due to warm, dry, and breezy westerly downslope flow. Another area of minor concern will be ahead of an approaching upper level trough from southeastern NM through the Caprock of TX. A narrow corridor of drying, and southwest sustained winds near 15 to 20 mph, could support a couple of hours of localized elevated fire weather there. However, recent trends in relatively higher boundary layer moisture and increasing cloud cover over this region (less mixing expected) do not warrant an additional Elevated area at this time. Please see the previous discussion for details pertaining to the Southwest. ..Barnes.. 09/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Central/Northern Plains... A shortwave trough moving across the Canadian Provinces will bring enhanced westerly flow across the northern Rockies. Warm and dry downslope flow east of the Bighorn Mountains will be likely across eastern Wyoming into portions of far southeastern South Dakota. A period of elevated fire weather conditions will be likely, with relative humidity reductions to 10-15% amid sustained westerly winds 15-20 mph. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support wildfire spread, with little observed rainfall in the last 30 days. ...Southwest... An enhanced belt of mid-level flow within a deepening mid-level low will spread across the Southwest. Boundary-layer mixing into this strong deep-layer flow will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of western NM and eastern AZ during this afternoon. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible. Fuels across the southwest are generally unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time. Elsewhere, a minimal overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...Update... The latest model data suite continues to suggest elevated fire weather conditions for this afternoon across portions of eastern WY due to warm, dry, and breezy westerly downslope flow. Another area of minor concern will be ahead of an approaching upper level trough from southeastern NM through the Caprock of TX. A narrow corridor of drying, and southwest sustained winds near 15 to 20 mph, could support a couple of hours of localized elevated fire weather there. However, recent trends in relatively higher boundary layer moisture and increasing cloud cover over this region (less mixing expected) do not warrant an additional Elevated area at this time. Please see the previous discussion for details pertaining to the Southwest. ..Barnes.. 09/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Central/Northern Plains... A shortwave trough moving across the Canadian Provinces will bring enhanced westerly flow across the northern Rockies. Warm and dry downslope flow east of the Bighorn Mountains will be likely across eastern Wyoming into portions of far southeastern South Dakota. A period of elevated fire weather conditions will be likely, with relative humidity reductions to 10-15% amid sustained westerly winds 15-20 mph. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support wildfire spread, with little observed rainfall in the last 30 days. ...Southwest... An enhanced belt of mid-level flow within a deepening mid-level low will spread across the Southwest. Boundary-layer mixing into this strong deep-layer flow will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of western NM and eastern AZ during this afternoon. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible. Fuels across the southwest are generally unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time. Elsewhere, a minimal overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...Update... The latest model data suite continues to suggest elevated fire weather conditions for this afternoon across portions of eastern WY due to warm, dry, and breezy westerly downslope flow. Another area of minor concern will be ahead of an approaching upper level trough from southeastern NM through the Caprock of TX. A narrow corridor of drying, and southwest sustained winds near 15 to 20 mph, could support a couple of hours of localized elevated fire weather there. However, recent trends in relatively higher boundary layer moisture and increasing cloud cover over this region (less mixing expected) do not warrant an additional Elevated area at this time. Please see the previous discussion for details pertaining to the Southwest. ..Barnes.. 09/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Central/Northern Plains... A shortwave trough moving across the Canadian Provinces will bring enhanced westerly flow across the northern Rockies. Warm and dry downslope flow east of the Bighorn Mountains will be likely across eastern Wyoming into portions of far southeastern South Dakota. A period of elevated fire weather conditions will be likely, with relative humidity reductions to 10-15% amid sustained westerly winds 15-20 mph. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support wildfire spread, with little observed rainfall in the last 30 days. ...Southwest... An enhanced belt of mid-level flow within a deepening mid-level low will spread across the Southwest. Boundary-layer mixing into this strong deep-layer flow will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of western NM and eastern AZ during this afternoon. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible. Fuels across the southwest are generally unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time. Elsewhere, a minimal overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...Update... The latest model data suite continues to suggest elevated fire weather conditions for this afternoon across portions of eastern WY due to warm, dry, and breezy westerly downslope flow. Another area of minor concern will be ahead of an approaching upper level trough from southeastern NM through the Caprock of TX. A narrow corridor of drying, and southwest sustained winds near 15 to 20 mph, could support a couple of hours of localized elevated fire weather there. However, recent trends in relatively higher boundary layer moisture and increasing cloud cover over this region (less mixing expected) do not warrant an additional Elevated area at this time. Please see the previous discussion for details pertaining to the Southwest. ..Barnes.. 09/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Central/Northern Plains... A shortwave trough moving across the Canadian Provinces will bring enhanced westerly flow across the northern Rockies. Warm and dry downslope flow east of the Bighorn Mountains will be likely across eastern Wyoming into portions of far southeastern South Dakota. A period of elevated fire weather conditions will be likely, with relative humidity reductions to 10-15% amid sustained westerly winds 15-20 mph. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support wildfire spread, with little observed rainfall in the last 30 days. ...Southwest... An enhanced belt of mid-level flow within a deepening mid-level low will spread across the Southwest. Boundary-layer mixing into this strong deep-layer flow will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of western NM and eastern AZ during this afternoon. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible. Fuels across the southwest are generally unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time. Elsewhere, a minimal overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...Update... The latest model data suite continues to suggest elevated fire weather conditions for this afternoon across portions of eastern WY due to warm, dry, and breezy westerly downslope flow. Another area of minor concern will be ahead of an approaching upper level trough from southeastern NM through the Caprock of TX. A narrow corridor of drying, and southwest sustained winds near 15 to 20 mph, could support a couple of hours of localized elevated fire weather there. However, recent trends in relatively higher boundary layer moisture and increasing cloud cover over this region (less mixing expected) do not warrant an additional Elevated area at this time. Please see the previous discussion for details pertaining to the Southwest. ..Barnes.. 09/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Central/Northern Plains... A shortwave trough moving across the Canadian Provinces will bring enhanced westerly flow across the northern Rockies. Warm and dry downslope flow east of the Bighorn Mountains will be likely across eastern Wyoming into portions of far southeastern South Dakota. A period of elevated fire weather conditions will be likely, with relative humidity reductions to 10-15% amid sustained westerly winds 15-20 mph. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support wildfire spread, with little observed rainfall in the last 30 days. ...Southwest... An enhanced belt of mid-level flow within a deepening mid-level low will spread across the Southwest. Boundary-layer mixing into this strong deep-layer flow will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of western NM and eastern AZ during this afternoon. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible. Fuels across the southwest are generally unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time. Elsewhere, a minimal overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Buckeye Lake has become even more shallow than usual and was just four to six feet deep in most areas. The lack of rain has left the lake about 15 inches lower than it ought to be. The main part of the lake was still navigable, but the edges and many of the canals where boats dock were not passable. The low water levels were causing people to damage their props. Some have opted to end the boating season early and take their boats out of the lake. The lakefront restaurants and bars were seeing less business, and the marina was not selling as much gas or service. Spectrum 1 (Columbus, Ohio), Sept 20, 2024

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO PARTS OF ILLINOIS...INDIANA...AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon over parts of southwest Lower Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, and southeast Missouri. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible across parts of the south-central Plains. ...Synopsis... Shortwave trough currently moving through WI and Upper MI will continue eastward through the Upper Great Lakes region today. Another shortwave trough will follow quickly in its wake, progressing across Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, and adjacent portions of MT and the northern Plains this evening and overnight. Father south, a deep upper low with seasonably cold mid-level temperatures will move from southern CA into AZ. Progression of this low will dampen the northwestern periphery of the upper ridging centered over TX. A surface low attendant to this WI/Upper MI shortwave trough is currently near the IA/WI/IL border intersection, with weak cold front extending southwestward from this low to another subtle surface low over the central OK/KS border. Surface troughing continues southwestward from this secondary low, but this portion of the boundary has taken on more warm-front-like characteristics over the past several hours (evidenced by the dewpoint increase of 3-4 deg F over the past 3 hours across the eastern TX/OK Panhandle). Enhanced westerly/southwesterly flow aloft attendant to both the central Canada/MT shortwave trough and CA upper low will contribute to sharpening surface lee troughing throughout the day and into this evening. ...Central Plains... Low-level moisture is expected to advect northward/northwestward throughout the day as Thursday's cold front returns northward as a warm front. As a result, low to mid 60s dewpoints will likely be in place across south-central/southeast KS during the late afternoon. Dewpoints will likely be in upper 50s farther west in southwest KS, with notably drier conditions across the adjacent TX/OK Panhandles where downsloping southwesterly surface winds are likely. Southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the approaching upper low will advect steep mid-level lapse rates northeastward through the southern High Plains into western portions of the central Plains. Modest buoyancy is anticipated during the late afternoon where these lapse rates overlay the more favorable low-level moisture across southern KS. Limited large-scale ascent and low-level confluence near the warm front is anticipated over this region as well, with isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm anticipated. Vertical shear will be modest, but still strong enough for persist/organized storm structures, and the potential for some strong gusts with the more robust storms. Some isolated hail is also possible over south-central KS where buoyancy is maximized. Low-level moisture will continue advection northward during the evening and overnight, with a strengthening low-level jet anticipated as well. Consequently, additional thunderstorm development is expected after 04Z over northeast KS and adjacent far southeast NE and northwest MO. Isolated hail is possible with the strongest storms. ...Southwestern Lower MI into IN, IL, and southeast MO... Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are expected from southwest Lower MI southwestward across western IN, southern IL, and southeast MO. Daytime heating of this moist low-level air mass will yield a moderately unstable and uncapped air mass ahead of the approaching front, and thunderstorm development is anticipated as the front interacts with this airmass. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but poor lapse rates and notable mid-level dry air could make updraft maintenance difficult. As such, a more multicellular storm mode is anticipated. Highest storm coverage is expected over southwest Lower MI and western IN, with warm mid-level temperatures likely limiting coverage across southern IL and southeast MO. Locally strong gusts will be the primary severe risk, with isolated, marginally severe hail possible as well. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 09/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO PARTS OF ILLINOIS...INDIANA...AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon over parts of southwest Lower Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, and southeast Missouri. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible across parts of the south-central Plains. ...Synopsis... Shortwave trough currently moving through WI and Upper MI will continue eastward through the Upper Great Lakes region today. Another shortwave trough will follow quickly in its wake, progressing across Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, and adjacent portions of MT and the northern Plains this evening and overnight. Father south, a deep upper low with seasonably cold mid-level temperatures will move from southern CA into AZ. Progression of this low will dampen the northwestern periphery of the upper ridging centered over TX. A surface low attendant to this WI/Upper MI shortwave trough is currently near the IA/WI/IL border intersection, with weak cold front extending southwestward from this low to another subtle surface low over the central OK/KS border. Surface troughing continues southwestward from this secondary low, but this portion of the boundary has taken on more warm-front-like characteristics over the past several hours (evidenced by the dewpoint increase of 3-4 deg F over the past 3 hours across the eastern TX/OK Panhandle). Enhanced westerly/southwesterly flow aloft attendant to both the central Canada/MT shortwave trough and CA upper low will contribute to sharpening surface lee troughing throughout the day and into this evening. ...Central Plains... Low-level moisture is expected to advect northward/northwestward throughout the day as Thursday's cold front returns northward as a warm front. As a result, low to mid 60s dewpoints will likely be in place across south-central/southeast KS during the late afternoon. Dewpoints will likely be in upper 50s farther west in southwest KS, with notably drier conditions across the adjacent TX/OK Panhandles where downsloping southwesterly surface winds are likely. Southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the approaching upper low will advect steep mid-level lapse rates northeastward through the southern High Plains into western portions of the central Plains. Modest buoyancy is anticipated during the late afternoon where these lapse rates overlay the more favorable low-level moisture across southern KS. Limited large-scale ascent and low-level confluence near the warm front is anticipated over this region as well, with isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm anticipated. Vertical shear will be modest, but still strong enough for persist/organized storm structures, and the potential for some strong gusts with the more robust storms. Some isolated hail is also possible over south-central KS where buoyancy is maximized. Low-level moisture will continue advection northward during the evening and overnight, with a strengthening low-level jet anticipated as well. Consequently, additional thunderstorm development is expected after 04Z over northeast KS and adjacent far southeast NE and northwest MO. Isolated hail is possible with the strongest storms. ...Southwestern Lower MI into IN, IL, and southeast MO... Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are expected from southwest Lower MI southwestward across western IN, southern IL, and southeast MO. Daytime heating of this moist low-level air mass will yield a moderately unstable and uncapped air mass ahead of the approaching front, and thunderstorm development is anticipated as the front interacts with this airmass. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but poor lapse rates and notable mid-level dry air could make updraft maintenance difficult. As such, a more multicellular storm mode is anticipated. Highest storm coverage is expected over southwest Lower MI and western IN, with warm mid-level temperatures likely limiting coverage across southern IL and southeast MO. Locally strong gusts will be the primary severe risk, with isolated, marginally severe hail possible as well. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 09/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO PARTS OF ILLINOIS...INDIANA...AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon over parts of southwest Lower Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, and southeast Missouri. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible across parts of the south-central Plains. ...Synopsis... Shortwave trough currently moving through WI and Upper MI will continue eastward through the Upper Great Lakes region today. Another shortwave trough will follow quickly in its wake, progressing across Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, and adjacent portions of MT and the northern Plains this evening and overnight. Father south, a deep upper low with seasonably cold mid-level temperatures will move from southern CA into AZ. Progression of this low will dampen the northwestern periphery of the upper ridging centered over TX. A surface low attendant to this WI/Upper MI shortwave trough is currently near the IA/WI/IL border intersection, with weak cold front extending southwestward from this low to another subtle surface low over the central OK/KS border. Surface troughing continues southwestward from this secondary low, but this portion of the boundary has taken on more warm-front-like characteristics over the past several hours (evidenced by the dewpoint increase of 3-4 deg F over the past 3 hours across the eastern TX/OK Panhandle). Enhanced westerly/southwesterly flow aloft attendant to both the central Canada/MT shortwave trough and CA upper low will contribute to sharpening surface lee troughing throughout the day and into this evening. ...Central Plains... Low-level moisture is expected to advect northward/northwestward throughout the day as Thursday's cold front returns northward as a warm front. As a result, low to mid 60s dewpoints will likely be in place across south-central/southeast KS during the late afternoon. Dewpoints will likely be in upper 50s farther west in southwest KS, with notably drier conditions across the adjacent TX/OK Panhandles where downsloping southwesterly surface winds are likely. Southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the approaching upper low will advect steep mid-level lapse rates northeastward through the southern High Plains into western portions of the central Plains. Modest buoyancy is anticipated during the late afternoon where these lapse rates overlay the more favorable low-level moisture across southern KS. Limited large-scale ascent and low-level confluence near the warm front is anticipated over this region as well, with isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm anticipated. Vertical shear will be modest, but still strong enough for persist/organized storm structures, and the potential for some strong gusts with the more robust storms. Some isolated hail is also possible over south-central KS where buoyancy is maximized. Low-level moisture will continue advection northward during the evening and overnight, with a strengthening low-level jet anticipated as well. Consequently, additional thunderstorm development is expected after 04Z over northeast KS and adjacent far southeast NE and northwest MO. Isolated hail is possible with the strongest storms. ...Southwestern Lower MI into IN, IL, and southeast MO... Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are expected from southwest Lower MI southwestward across western IN, southern IL, and southeast MO. Daytime heating of this moist low-level air mass will yield a moderately unstable and uncapped air mass ahead of the approaching front, and thunderstorm development is anticipated as the front interacts with this airmass. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but poor lapse rates and notable mid-level dry air could make updraft maintenance difficult. As such, a more multicellular storm mode is anticipated. Highest storm coverage is expected over southwest Lower MI and western IN, with warm mid-level temperatures likely limiting coverage across southern IL and southeast MO. Locally strong gusts will be the primary severe risk, with isolated, marginally severe hail possible as well. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 09/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO PARTS OF ILLINOIS...INDIANA...AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon over parts of southwest Lower Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, and southeast Missouri. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible across parts of the south-central Plains. ...Synopsis... Shortwave trough currently moving through WI and Upper MI will continue eastward through the Upper Great Lakes region today. Another shortwave trough will follow quickly in its wake, progressing across Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, and adjacent portions of MT and the northern Plains this evening and overnight. Father south, a deep upper low with seasonably cold mid-level temperatures will move from southern CA into AZ. Progression of this low will dampen the northwestern periphery of the upper ridging centered over TX. A surface low attendant to this WI/Upper MI shortwave trough is currently near the IA/WI/IL border intersection, with weak cold front extending southwestward from this low to another subtle surface low over the central OK/KS border. Surface troughing continues southwestward from this secondary low, but this portion of the boundary has taken on more warm-front-like characteristics over the past several hours (evidenced by the dewpoint increase of 3-4 deg F over the past 3 hours across the eastern TX/OK Panhandle). Enhanced westerly/southwesterly flow aloft attendant to both the central Canada/MT shortwave trough and CA upper low will contribute to sharpening surface lee troughing throughout the day and into this evening. ...Central Plains... Low-level moisture is expected to advect northward/northwestward throughout the day as Thursday's cold front returns northward as a warm front. As a result, low to mid 60s dewpoints will likely be in place across south-central/southeast KS during the late afternoon. Dewpoints will likely be in upper 50s farther west in southwest KS, with notably drier conditions across the adjacent TX/OK Panhandles where downsloping southwesterly surface winds are likely. Southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the approaching upper low will advect steep mid-level lapse rates northeastward through the southern High Plains into western portions of the central Plains. Modest buoyancy is anticipated during the late afternoon where these lapse rates overlay the more favorable low-level moisture across southern KS. Limited large-scale ascent and low-level confluence near the warm front is anticipated over this region as well, with isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm anticipated. Vertical shear will be modest, but still strong enough for persist/organized storm structures, and the potential for some strong gusts with the more robust storms. Some isolated hail is also possible over south-central KS where buoyancy is maximized. Low-level moisture will continue advection northward during the evening and overnight, with a strengthening low-level jet anticipated as well. Consequently, additional thunderstorm development is expected after 04Z over northeast KS and adjacent far southeast NE and northwest MO. Isolated hail is possible with the strongest storms. ...Southwestern Lower MI into IN, IL, and southeast MO... Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are expected from southwest Lower MI southwestward across western IN, southern IL, and southeast MO. Daytime heating of this moist low-level air mass will yield a moderately unstable and uncapped air mass ahead of the approaching front, and thunderstorm development is anticipated as the front interacts with this airmass. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but poor lapse rates and notable mid-level dry air could make updraft maintenance difficult. As such, a more multicellular storm mode is anticipated. Highest storm coverage is expected over southwest Lower MI and western IN, with warm mid-level temperatures likely limiting coverage across southern IL and southeast MO. Locally strong gusts will be the primary severe risk, with isolated, marginally severe hail possible as well. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 09/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0743 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 201300Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWEST LOWER MICHIGAN INTO PARTS OF ILLINOIS...INDIANA...AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon over parts of southwest Lower Michigan, Illinois, Indiana, and southeast Missouri. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible across parts of the south-central Plains. ...Synopsis... Shortwave trough currently moving through WI and Upper MI will continue eastward through the Upper Great Lakes region today. Another shortwave trough will follow quickly in its wake, progressing across Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba, and adjacent portions of MT and the northern Plains this evening and overnight. Father south, a deep upper low with seasonably cold mid-level temperatures will move from southern CA into AZ. Progression of this low will dampen the northwestern periphery of the upper ridging centered over TX. A surface low attendant to this WI/Upper MI shortwave trough is currently near the IA/WI/IL border intersection, with weak cold front extending southwestward from this low to another subtle surface low over the central OK/KS border. Surface troughing continues southwestward from this secondary low, but this portion of the boundary has taken on more warm-front-like characteristics over the past several hours (evidenced by the dewpoint increase of 3-4 deg F over the past 3 hours across the eastern TX/OK Panhandle). Enhanced westerly/southwesterly flow aloft attendant to both the central Canada/MT shortwave trough and CA upper low will contribute to sharpening surface lee troughing throughout the day and into this evening. ...Central Plains... Low-level moisture is expected to advect northward/northwestward throughout the day as Thursday's cold front returns northward as a warm front. As a result, low to mid 60s dewpoints will likely be in place across south-central/southeast KS during the late afternoon. Dewpoints will likely be in upper 50s farther west in southwest KS, with notably drier conditions across the adjacent TX/OK Panhandles where downsloping southwesterly surface winds are likely. Southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the approaching upper low will advect steep mid-level lapse rates northeastward through the southern High Plains into western portions of the central Plains. Modest buoyancy is anticipated during the late afternoon where these lapse rates overlay the more favorable low-level moisture across southern KS. Limited large-scale ascent and low-level confluence near the warm front is anticipated over this region as well, with isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorm anticipated. Vertical shear will be modest, but still strong enough for persist/organized storm structures, and the potential for some strong gusts with the more robust storms. Some isolated hail is also possible over south-central KS where buoyancy is maximized. Low-level moisture will continue advection northward during the evening and overnight, with a strengthening low-level jet anticipated as well. Consequently, additional thunderstorm development is expected after 04Z over northeast KS and adjacent far southeast NE and northwest MO. Isolated hail is possible with the strongest storms. ...Southwestern Lower MI into IN, IL, and southeast MO... Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are expected from southwest Lower MI southwestward across western IN, southern IL, and southeast MO. Daytime heating of this moist low-level air mass will yield a moderately unstable and uncapped air mass ahead of the approaching front, and thunderstorm development is anticipated as the front interacts with this airmass. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but poor lapse rates and notable mid-level dry air could make updraft maintenance difficult. As such, a more multicellular storm mode is anticipated. Highest storm coverage is expected over southwest Lower MI and western IN, with warm mid-level temperatures likely limiting coverage across southern IL and southeast MO. Locally strong gusts will be the primary severe risk, with isolated, marginally severe hail possible as well. ..Mosier/Broyles.. 09/20/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 201140
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Sep 20 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico this weekend. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for some slow development of this
system, and a tropical depression could form by the middle
part of next week while it slowly moves generally northward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... Th latest suite of forecast guidance continues to show large spread during the Day 4-8/Mon-Fri period. While the evolution of a central U.S. upper trough is uncertain, it seems likely general troughing across the eastern half of the U.S. will develop. Some severe potential could develop around Days 4-5/Mon-Tue from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic as a surface cold front advances east into a seasonally moist airmass amid moderately enhanced mid/upper flow. Severe potential should decrease late in the forecast period as the surface trough moves offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts and surface high pressure builds across the Midwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... Th latest suite of forecast guidance continues to show large spread during the Day 4-8/Mon-Fri period. While the evolution of a central U.S. upper trough is uncertain, it seems likely general troughing across the eastern half of the U.S. will develop. Some severe potential could develop around Days 4-5/Mon-Tue from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic as a surface cold front advances east into a seasonally moist airmass amid moderately enhanced mid/upper flow. Severe potential should decrease late in the forecast period as the surface trough moves offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts and surface high pressure builds across the Midwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... Th latest suite of forecast guidance continues to show large spread during the Day 4-8/Mon-Fri period. While the evolution of a central U.S. upper trough is uncertain, it seems likely general troughing across the eastern half of the U.S. will develop. Some severe potential could develop around Days 4-5/Mon-Tue from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic as a surface cold front advances east into a seasonally moist airmass amid moderately enhanced mid/upper flow. Severe potential should decrease late in the forecast period as the surface trough moves offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts and surface high pressure builds across the Midwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 231200Z - 281200Z ...DISCUSSION... Th latest suite of forecast guidance continues to show large spread during the Day 4-8/Mon-Fri period. While the evolution of a central U.S. upper trough is uncertain, it seems likely general troughing across the eastern half of the U.S. will develop. Some severe potential could develop around Days 4-5/Mon-Tue from the Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic as a surface cold front advances east into a seasonally moist airmass amid moderately enhanced mid/upper flow. Severe potential should decrease late in the forecast period as the surface trough moves offshore the Atlantic and Gulf coasts and surface high pressure builds across the Midwest. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low across the CONUS on Saturday as a cold front brings cooler temperatures and increasing precipitation chances across much of the central/northern Plains. Brief periods of Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across portions of New Mexico as enhanced mid-level flow rounds the western US upper low. Fuels across this region remain unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time with potential for additional rainfall from thunderstorm activity on Saturday. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 09/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low across the CONUS on Saturday as a cold front brings cooler temperatures and increasing precipitation chances across much of the central/northern Plains. Brief periods of Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across portions of New Mexico as enhanced mid-level flow rounds the western US upper low. Fuels across this region remain unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time with potential for additional rainfall from thunderstorm activity on Saturday. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 09/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0159 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low across the CONUS on Saturday as a cold front brings cooler temperatures and increasing precipitation chances across much of the central/northern Plains. Brief periods of Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across portions of New Mexico as enhanced mid-level flow rounds the western US upper low. Fuels across this region remain unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time with potential for additional rainfall from thunderstorm activity on Saturday. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ..Thornton.. 09/20/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more