Aggregator

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across parts of south Texas and the central Gulf Coast. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A cold front will sharpen and advance south into the Gulf of Mexico during the day Thursday. A few thunderstorms are possible along the Louisiana coast where some mid 60s dewpoints and marginal instability will be present before the front moves offshore. The front is expected to stall across far South Texas where isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the day and perhaps into the overnight hours as weak ascent arrives ahead of an approaching mid-level trough. ..Bentley.. 12/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across parts of south Texas and the central Gulf Coast. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A cold front will sharpen and advance south into the Gulf of Mexico during the day Thursday. A few thunderstorms are possible along the Louisiana coast where some mid 60s dewpoints and marginal instability will be present before the front moves offshore. The front is expected to stall across far South Texas where isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the day and perhaps into the overnight hours as weak ascent arrives ahead of an approaching mid-level trough. ..Bentley.. 12/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across parts of south Texas and the central Gulf Coast. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A cold front will sharpen and advance south into the Gulf of Mexico during the day Thursday. A few thunderstorms are possible along the Louisiana coast where some mid 60s dewpoints and marginal instability will be present before the front moves offshore. The front is expected to stall across far South Texas where isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the day and perhaps into the overnight hours as weak ascent arrives ahead of an approaching mid-level trough. ..Bentley.. 12/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1249 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across parts of south Texas and the central Gulf Coast. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A cold front will sharpen and advance south into the Gulf of Mexico during the day Thursday. A few thunderstorms are possible along the Louisiana coast where some mid 60s dewpoints and marginal instability will be present before the front moves offshore. The front is expected to stall across far South Texas where isolated thunderstorms will be possible during the day and perhaps into the overnight hours as weak ascent arrives ahead of an approaching mid-level trough. ..Bentley.. 12/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are likely from East Texas into the ArkLaMiss today and tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A deep upper low will swing southeast toward the upper Great Lakes today, as an intense speed max moves southeastward across the upper MS Valley and Midwest. Meanwhile, a belt of 35-40 kt 500 mb westerlies will extend from northern MX across TX, with seasonably cool temperatures aloft. At the surface, a trough will exist near the TX Coast during day, and will translate east/northeast across southern LA through tonight. Moisture return with mid to perhaps upper 60s F dewpoints will extend from the middle to the upper TX Coast through 00Z, and spread across southern LA overnight. The combination of increasing moisture with sufficiently steep lapse rates aloft will favor scattered thunderstorms within the low-level warm advection regime. ...Southeast TX toward the lower MS Valley... Scattered showers and a few elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing early this morning over parts of central TX, with more substantial storms possible along a north-south confluence line over the western Gulf of Mexico. While surface dewpoints are forecast to increase over land, low-level lapse rates will remain poor due to limited heating/cloud cover. Low-level SRH will increase within the warm advection zone, with values over 300 m2/s2 briefly coincident with SBCAPE of 500-750 J/kg. This will occur over eastern TX during the afternoon, with similar values into western LA during the evening. The primary mitigating factors to a tornado risk will be poor low-level lapse rates (as moisture returns into the relatively cool air mass), lack of any appreciable surface baroclinic zone, and marginal instability. These factors are expected to render much of the low-level SRH ineffective, reducing supercell potential over land. ..Jewell/Thornton.. 12/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are likely from East Texas into the ArkLaMiss today and tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A deep upper low will swing southeast toward the upper Great Lakes today, as an intense speed max moves southeastward across the upper MS Valley and Midwest. Meanwhile, a belt of 35-40 kt 500 mb westerlies will extend from northern MX across TX, with seasonably cool temperatures aloft. At the surface, a trough will exist near the TX Coast during day, and will translate east/northeast across southern LA through tonight. Moisture return with mid to perhaps upper 60s F dewpoints will extend from the middle to the upper TX Coast through 00Z, and spread across southern LA overnight. The combination of increasing moisture with sufficiently steep lapse rates aloft will favor scattered thunderstorms within the low-level warm advection regime. ...Southeast TX toward the lower MS Valley... Scattered showers and a few elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing early this morning over parts of central TX, with more substantial storms possible along a north-south confluence line over the western Gulf of Mexico. While surface dewpoints are forecast to increase over land, low-level lapse rates will remain poor due to limited heating/cloud cover. Low-level SRH will increase within the warm advection zone, with values over 300 m2/s2 briefly coincident with SBCAPE of 500-750 J/kg. This will occur over eastern TX during the afternoon, with similar values into western LA during the evening. The primary mitigating factors to a tornado risk will be poor low-level lapse rates (as moisture returns into the relatively cool air mass), lack of any appreciable surface baroclinic zone, and marginal instability. These factors are expected to render much of the low-level SRH ineffective, reducing supercell potential over land. ..Jewell/Thornton.. 12/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are likely from East Texas into the ArkLaMiss today and tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A deep upper low will swing southeast toward the upper Great Lakes today, as an intense speed max moves southeastward across the upper MS Valley and Midwest. Meanwhile, a belt of 35-40 kt 500 mb westerlies will extend from northern MX across TX, with seasonably cool temperatures aloft. At the surface, a trough will exist near the TX Coast during day, and will translate east/northeast across southern LA through tonight. Moisture return with mid to perhaps upper 60s F dewpoints will extend from the middle to the upper TX Coast through 00Z, and spread across southern LA overnight. The combination of increasing moisture with sufficiently steep lapse rates aloft will favor scattered thunderstorms within the low-level warm advection regime. ...Southeast TX toward the lower MS Valley... Scattered showers and a few elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing early this morning over parts of central TX, with more substantial storms possible along a north-south confluence line over the western Gulf of Mexico. While surface dewpoints are forecast to increase over land, low-level lapse rates will remain poor due to limited heating/cloud cover. Low-level SRH will increase within the warm advection zone, with values over 300 m2/s2 briefly coincident with SBCAPE of 500-750 J/kg. This will occur over eastern TX during the afternoon, with similar values into western LA during the evening. The primary mitigating factors to a tornado risk will be poor low-level lapse rates (as moisture returns into the relatively cool air mass), lack of any appreciable surface baroclinic zone, and marginal instability. These factors are expected to render much of the low-level SRH ineffective, reducing supercell potential over land. ..Jewell/Thornton.. 12/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are likely from East Texas into the ArkLaMiss today and tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A deep upper low will swing southeast toward the upper Great Lakes today, as an intense speed max moves southeastward across the upper MS Valley and Midwest. Meanwhile, a belt of 35-40 kt 500 mb westerlies will extend from northern MX across TX, with seasonably cool temperatures aloft. At the surface, a trough will exist near the TX Coast during day, and will translate east/northeast across southern LA through tonight. Moisture return with mid to perhaps upper 60s F dewpoints will extend from the middle to the upper TX Coast through 00Z, and spread across southern LA overnight. The combination of increasing moisture with sufficiently steep lapse rates aloft will favor scattered thunderstorms within the low-level warm advection regime. ...Southeast TX toward the lower MS Valley... Scattered showers and a few elevated thunderstorms may be ongoing early this morning over parts of central TX, with more substantial storms possible along a north-south confluence line over the western Gulf of Mexico. While surface dewpoints are forecast to increase over land, low-level lapse rates will remain poor due to limited heating/cloud cover. Low-level SRH will increase within the warm advection zone, with values over 300 m2/s2 briefly coincident with SBCAPE of 500-750 J/kg. This will occur over eastern TX during the afternoon, with similar values into western LA during the evening. The primary mitigating factors to a tornado risk will be poor low-level lapse rates (as moisture returns into the relatively cool air mass), lack of any appreciable surface baroclinic zone, and marginal instability. These factors are expected to render much of the low-level SRH ineffective, reducing supercell potential over land. ..Jewell/Thornton.. 12/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0623 PM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible through tonight along the lower/middle Texas Coast into central Texas, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... An upper high will remain situated over the Pacific Northwest, with a large-scale upper trough from Northern Plains/Great Lakes to the East Coast. A low-latitude wave will move across the Gulf of CA, with modest midlevel flow around 40 kt nosing into southwestern TX by 12Z Wed. While high pressure will maintain stable conditions over most of the CONUS, a plume of 60s F dewpoints over the western Gulf of Mexico will extend farther inland tonight across the middle TX Coast. Increasing southerly winds just off the surface will result in weak levels of warm/moist advection over TX, in response to the aforementioned southern-stream wave. Indications are that elevated instability will develop over central TX, with over 500 J/kg MUCAPE. While ascent will be weak, little elevated CIN may yield a few showers and thunderstorms. ..Jewell.. 12/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0623 PM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible through tonight along the lower/middle Texas Coast into central Texas, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... An upper high will remain situated over the Pacific Northwest, with a large-scale upper trough from Northern Plains/Great Lakes to the East Coast. A low-latitude wave will move across the Gulf of CA, with modest midlevel flow around 40 kt nosing into southwestern TX by 12Z Wed. While high pressure will maintain stable conditions over most of the CONUS, a plume of 60s F dewpoints over the western Gulf of Mexico will extend farther inland tonight across the middle TX Coast. Increasing southerly winds just off the surface will result in weak levels of warm/moist advection over TX, in response to the aforementioned southern-stream wave. Indications are that elevated instability will develop over central TX, with over 500 J/kg MUCAPE. While ascent will be weak, little elevated CIN may yield a few showers and thunderstorms. ..Jewell.. 12/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0623 PM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible through tonight along the lower/middle Texas Coast into central Texas, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion... An upper high will remain situated over the Pacific Northwest, with a large-scale upper trough from Northern Plains/Great Lakes to the East Coast. A low-latitude wave will move across the Gulf of CA, with modest midlevel flow around 40 kt nosing into southwestern TX by 12Z Wed. While high pressure will maintain stable conditions over most of the CONUS, a plume of 60s F dewpoints over the western Gulf of Mexico will extend farther inland tonight across the middle TX Coast. Increasing southerly winds just off the surface will result in weak levels of warm/moist advection over TX, in response to the aforementioned southern-stream wave. Indications are that elevated instability will develop over central TX, with over 500 J/kg MUCAPE. While ascent will be weak, little elevated CIN may yield a few showers and thunderstorms. ..Jewell.. 12/04/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Tue Dec 3 22:57:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Dec 3 22:57:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Days 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... A pronounced midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northeast late this week into the weekend, while a cold upstream air mass infiltrates the eastern half of the CONUS -- generally limiting fire-weather concerns. At the same time, a broad, low-latitude midlevel trough will meander over the Southwest through the weekend, while upstream surface high pressure encourages locally dry/breezy offshore flow across southern CA. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible during this timeframe, though critical conditions are not currently expected. By Day 6/Sunday, the low-latitude trough over the Southwest will move eastward across the southern Rockies, yielding lee troughing/cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains and modestly dry and breezy conditions. Despite good model agreement in the development of strong westerly surface winds, marginal RH reductions and only modestly receptive fuels cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather threat. ...Days 7-8/Monday-Tuesday - Southern California... Medium-range guidance has come into reasonably good agreement, depicting a highly amplified large-scale ridge over the eastern Pacific, and an amplified downstream trough over the West. This large-scale pattern will be favorable for a potentially strong offshore wind event across southern CA -- where a dry antecedent air mass will be in place. Given above-average agreement in deterministic and ensemble guidance, 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added for the wind-prone areas of southern CA. If guidance remains in good agreement, higher probabilities may eventually be needed as the details become clearer. ..Weinman.. 12/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Days 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... A pronounced midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northeast late this week into the weekend, while a cold upstream air mass infiltrates the eastern half of the CONUS -- generally limiting fire-weather concerns. At the same time, a broad, low-latitude midlevel trough will meander over the Southwest through the weekend, while upstream surface high pressure encourages locally dry/breezy offshore flow across southern CA. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible during this timeframe, though critical conditions are not currently expected. By Day 6/Sunday, the low-latitude trough over the Southwest will move eastward across the southern Rockies, yielding lee troughing/cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains and modestly dry and breezy conditions. Despite good model agreement in the development of strong westerly surface winds, marginal RH reductions and only modestly receptive fuels cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather threat. ...Days 7-8/Monday-Tuesday - Southern California... Medium-range guidance has come into reasonably good agreement, depicting a highly amplified large-scale ridge over the eastern Pacific, and an amplified downstream trough over the West. This large-scale pattern will be favorable for a potentially strong offshore wind event across southern CA -- where a dry antecedent air mass will be in place. Given above-average agreement in deterministic and ensemble guidance, 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added for the wind-prone areas of southern CA. If guidance remains in good agreement, higher probabilities may eventually be needed as the details become clearer. ..Weinman.. 12/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Days 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... A pronounced midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northeast late this week into the weekend, while a cold upstream air mass infiltrates the eastern half of the CONUS -- generally limiting fire-weather concerns. At the same time, a broad, low-latitude midlevel trough will meander over the Southwest through the weekend, while upstream surface high pressure encourages locally dry/breezy offshore flow across southern CA. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible during this timeframe, though critical conditions are not currently expected. By Day 6/Sunday, the low-latitude trough over the Southwest will move eastward across the southern Rockies, yielding lee troughing/cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains and modestly dry and breezy conditions. Despite good model agreement in the development of strong westerly surface winds, marginal RH reductions and only modestly receptive fuels cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather threat. ...Days 7-8/Monday-Tuesday - Southern California... Medium-range guidance has come into reasonably good agreement, depicting a highly amplified large-scale ridge over the eastern Pacific, and an amplified downstream trough over the West. This large-scale pattern will be favorable for a potentially strong offshore wind event across southern CA -- where a dry antecedent air mass will be in place. Given above-average agreement in deterministic and ensemble guidance, 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added for the wind-prone areas of southern CA. If guidance remains in good agreement, higher probabilities may eventually be needed as the details become clearer. ..Weinman.. 12/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Days 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... A pronounced midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northeast late this week into the weekend, while a cold upstream air mass infiltrates the eastern half of the CONUS -- generally limiting fire-weather concerns. At the same time, a broad, low-latitude midlevel trough will meander over the Southwest through the weekend, while upstream surface high pressure encourages locally dry/breezy offshore flow across southern CA. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible during this timeframe, though critical conditions are not currently expected. By Day 6/Sunday, the low-latitude trough over the Southwest will move eastward across the southern Rockies, yielding lee troughing/cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains and modestly dry and breezy conditions. Despite good model agreement in the development of strong westerly surface winds, marginal RH reductions and only modestly receptive fuels cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather threat. ...Days 7-8/Monday-Tuesday - Southern California... Medium-range guidance has come into reasonably good agreement, depicting a highly amplified large-scale ridge over the eastern Pacific, and an amplified downstream trough over the West. This large-scale pattern will be favorable for a potentially strong offshore wind event across southern CA -- where a dry antecedent air mass will be in place. Given above-average agreement in deterministic and ensemble guidance, 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added for the wind-prone areas of southern CA. If guidance remains in good agreement, higher probabilities may eventually be needed as the details become clearer. ..Weinman.. 12/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Days 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... A pronounced midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northeast late this week into the weekend, while a cold upstream air mass infiltrates the eastern half of the CONUS -- generally limiting fire-weather concerns. At the same time, a broad, low-latitude midlevel trough will meander over the Southwest through the weekend, while upstream surface high pressure encourages locally dry/breezy offshore flow across southern CA. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible during this timeframe, though critical conditions are not currently expected. By Day 6/Sunday, the low-latitude trough over the Southwest will move eastward across the southern Rockies, yielding lee troughing/cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains and modestly dry and breezy conditions. Despite good model agreement in the development of strong westerly surface winds, marginal RH reductions and only modestly receptive fuels cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather threat. ...Days 7-8/Monday-Tuesday - Southern California... Medium-range guidance has come into reasonably good agreement, depicting a highly amplified large-scale ridge over the eastern Pacific, and an amplified downstream trough over the West. This large-scale pattern will be favorable for a potentially strong offshore wind event across southern CA -- where a dry antecedent air mass will be in place. Given above-average agreement in deterministic and ensemble guidance, 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added for the wind-prone areas of southern CA. If guidance remains in good agreement, higher probabilities may eventually be needed as the details become clearer. ..Weinman.. 12/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 111200Z ...Days 3-6/Thursday-Sunday... A pronounced midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northeast late this week into the weekend, while a cold upstream air mass infiltrates the eastern half of the CONUS -- generally limiting fire-weather concerns. At the same time, a broad, low-latitude midlevel trough will meander over the Southwest through the weekend, while upstream surface high pressure encourages locally dry/breezy offshore flow across southern CA. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible during this timeframe, though critical conditions are not currently expected. By Day 6/Sunday, the low-latitude trough over the Southwest will move eastward across the southern Rockies, yielding lee troughing/cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains and modestly dry and breezy conditions. Despite good model agreement in the development of strong westerly surface winds, marginal RH reductions and only modestly receptive fuels cast uncertainty on the overall fire-weather threat. ...Days 7-8/Monday-Tuesday - Southern California... Medium-range guidance has come into reasonably good agreement, depicting a highly amplified large-scale ridge over the eastern Pacific, and an amplified downstream trough over the West. This large-scale pattern will be favorable for a potentially strong offshore wind event across southern CA -- where a dry antecedent air mass will be in place. Given above-average agreement in deterministic and ensemble guidance, 40-percent Critical probabilities have been added for the wind-prone areas of southern CA. If guidance remains in good agreement, higher probabilities may eventually be needed as the details become clearer. ..Weinman.. 12/03/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0138 PM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible through tonight along the lower/middle Texas Coast into central Texas, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...20z Update... No changes were made to the outlook. Sporadic thunderstorms are possible over parts of central and southern TX late this evening/overnight. Severe storms are not expected given very weak, elevated buoyancy and marginal deep-layer shear. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 12/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough over the eastern CONUS will be reinforced by an amplifying and southeastward-digging shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairie provinces toward the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through tonight. Surface high pressure across the Southeast and cool/stable low-level trajectories across most of the Gulf of Mexico will generally limit/spatially confine thunderstorm potential through the period. However, across TX weak mid-level height rises are expected, with persistent weak low-level ascent and moistening near a coastal front. This will further influenced by modestly increasing south-southeasterly low-level flow/warm advection late this evening and tonight. Elevated convection over inland areas on the cool side of the boundary may produce occasional lightning, potentially in a northward-expanding fashion across parts of central TX tonight into early Wednesday morning. Modest surface-based instability may develop inland along the immediate lower/middle TX coast late this afternoon into tonight, but low-level SRH and lapse rates/parcel accelerations are expected to remain weak. Therefore, severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. Read more