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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday. ...TN/OH Valley into the Central Appalachians... An upper trough will shift east across the central U.S. on Tuesday, however there is uncertainty in the exact evolution/timing of this feature among various forecast guidance. Nevertheless, modestly enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow ahead of the upper trough will overspread portions of the OH/TN Valleys and central Appalachian vicinity. A moist airmass will be in place, characterized by 60s F dewpoints. Ongoing precipitation is possible Tuesday morning, associated with a lead shortwave impulse/convectively enhanced vorticity max over the OH Valley. As a result, the degree of daytime destabilization across the warm sector is uncertain. Some severe thunderstorm potential may develop from KY/TN toward the central Appalachians vicinity given modestly enhanced mid/upper level flow overspreading the moist warm sector. However, given large uncertainty in the evolution/timing of the central U.S. upper trough and concerns over a recovering/destabilizing warm sector, will hold off on introducing severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on Monday across the CONUS. Across the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with warming conditions. Though some dry conditions are expected to continue across the southwest, generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 09/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on Monday across the CONUS. Across the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with warming conditions. Though some dry conditions are expected to continue across the southwest, generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 09/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on Monday across the CONUS. Across the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with warming conditions. Though some dry conditions are expected to continue across the southwest, generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 09/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... No fire weather concerns are expected across the CONUS today. A cool post-frontal air mass is expected across the Plains with potential for widespread precipitation. Dry conditions will continue across the southwestern US. As the upper low moves eastward across the Rockies, winds will also decrease with cooler temperatures expected across the region which will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low. ..Thornton.. 09/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... No fire weather concerns are expected across the CONUS today. A cool post-frontal air mass is expected across the Plains with potential for widespread precipitation. Dry conditions will continue across the southwestern US. As the upper low moves eastward across the Rockies, winds will also decrease with cooler temperatures expected across the region which will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low. ..Thornton.. 09/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... No fire weather concerns are expected across the CONUS today. A cool post-frontal air mass is expected across the Plains with potential for widespread precipitation. Dry conditions will continue across the southwestern US. As the upper low moves eastward across the Rockies, winds will also decrease with cooler temperatures expected across the region which will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low. ..Thornton.. 09/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS INTO PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks into parts of Kentucky and Tennessee on Monday. ...Ozarks to KY/TN... An upper shortwave trough from the Mid/Lower MO Valley to the southern Plains vicinity will not progress eastward very much on Monday. However, enhanced midlevel flow (around 40 kt at 500 mb) associated with this feature will overspread the Ozarks to the Lower OH and TN Valley vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will develop south and east across southern MO and AR, becoming located near the MS River by 12z Tuesday. Meanwhile a quasi-stationary surface boundary will be oriented west to east near the OH River. While a moist boundary layer will exist across the warm sector, bounded by these surface fronts, considerable uncertainty remains in the Day 2/Mon forecast. This uncertainty is largely driven by widespread cloudiness and perhaps areas of ongoing precipitation Monday morning, possibly resulting in stunted daytime heating/destabilization. Additionally, given the less progressive nature of the mid/upper trough, large-scale ascent may remain somewhat nebulous/unfocused through peak heating. Nevertheless, where pockets of stronger heating and destabilization occur across the warm sector, strong to severe storms will be possible given moderate vertical shear overspreading the moist boundary layer in the presence of a surface boundary. Isolated damaging gusts and sporadic hail will be the main hazards with this activity Monday afternoon into the evening. ..Leitman.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS INTO PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks into parts of Kentucky and Tennessee on Monday. ...Ozarks to KY/TN... An upper shortwave trough from the Mid/Lower MO Valley to the southern Plains vicinity will not progress eastward very much on Monday. However, enhanced midlevel flow (around 40 kt at 500 mb) associated with this feature will overspread the Ozarks to the Lower OH and TN Valley vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will develop south and east across southern MO and AR, becoming located near the MS River by 12z Tuesday. Meanwhile a quasi-stationary surface boundary will be oriented west to east near the OH River. While a moist boundary layer will exist across the warm sector, bounded by these surface fronts, considerable uncertainty remains in the Day 2/Mon forecast. This uncertainty is largely driven by widespread cloudiness and perhaps areas of ongoing precipitation Monday morning, possibly resulting in stunted daytime heating/destabilization. Additionally, given the less progressive nature of the mid/upper trough, large-scale ascent may remain somewhat nebulous/unfocused through peak heating. Nevertheless, where pockets of stronger heating and destabilization occur across the warm sector, strong to severe storms will be possible given moderate vertical shear overspreading the moist boundary layer in the presence of a surface boundary. Isolated damaging gusts and sporadic hail will be the main hazards with this activity Monday afternoon into the evening. ..Leitman.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS INTO PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks into parts of Kentucky and Tennessee on Monday. ...Ozarks to KY/TN... An upper shortwave trough from the Mid/Lower MO Valley to the southern Plains vicinity will not progress eastward very much on Monday. However, enhanced midlevel flow (around 40 kt at 500 mb) associated with this feature will overspread the Ozarks to the Lower OH and TN Valley vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will develop south and east across southern MO and AR, becoming located near the MS River by 12z Tuesday. Meanwhile a quasi-stationary surface boundary will be oriented west to east near the OH River. While a moist boundary layer will exist across the warm sector, bounded by these surface fronts, considerable uncertainty remains in the Day 2/Mon forecast. This uncertainty is largely driven by widespread cloudiness and perhaps areas of ongoing precipitation Monday morning, possibly resulting in stunted daytime heating/destabilization. Additionally, given the less progressive nature of the mid/upper trough, large-scale ascent may remain somewhat nebulous/unfocused through peak heating. Nevertheless, where pockets of stronger heating and destabilization occur across the warm sector, strong to severe storms will be possible given moderate vertical shear overspreading the moist boundary layer in the presence of a surface boundary. Isolated damaging gusts and sporadic hail will be the main hazards with this activity Monday afternoon into the evening. ..Leitman.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1220 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS INTO PARTS OF KENTUCKY AND TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks into parts of Kentucky and Tennessee on Monday. ...Ozarks to KY/TN... An upper shortwave trough from the Mid/Lower MO Valley to the southern Plains vicinity will not progress eastward very much on Monday. However, enhanced midlevel flow (around 40 kt at 500 mb) associated with this feature will overspread the Ozarks to the Lower OH and TN Valley vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will develop south and east across southern MO and AR, becoming located near the MS River by 12z Tuesday. Meanwhile a quasi-stationary surface boundary will be oriented west to east near the OH River. While a moist boundary layer will exist across the warm sector, bounded by these surface fronts, considerable uncertainty remains in the Day 2/Mon forecast. This uncertainty is largely driven by widespread cloudiness and perhaps areas of ongoing precipitation Monday morning, possibly resulting in stunted daytime heating/destabilization. Additionally, given the less progressive nature of the mid/upper trough, large-scale ascent may remain somewhat nebulous/unfocused through peak heating. Nevertheless, where pockets of stronger heating and destabilization occur across the warm sector, strong to severe storms will be possible given moderate vertical shear overspreading the moist boundary layer in the presence of a surface boundary. Isolated damaging gusts and sporadic hail will be the main hazards with this activity Monday afternoon into the evening. ..Leitman.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS TO WESTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from west Texas to western Kentucky. ...West Texas to Western Kentucky... Notable upper low is currently located over the Four Corners region, shifting east in line with latest model guidance. This feature will gradually deamplify as it shifts east into the southern High Plains by the end of the period. As the trough shifts east, upper anticyclone will be suppressed toward the northwestern Gulf Basin and modest southwesterly 500mb flow will overspread west TX into the lower OH Valley. This evolution warrants a surface ridge building south across the High Plains and a sharp cold front should surge across the TX South Plains fairly early in the period, ultimately arcing from the Edwards Plateau-eastern OK-southern MO by 23/00z. This boundary should serve as the primary focus for potential robust convection through the period. Early this morning, scattered supercells, and more substantial clusters, are noted across the TX Panhandle into southern KS. This activity will gradually shift east and likely be ongoing in some fashion early in the period. Remnants of these storms, and left over convective debris, may inhibit surface heating near the front. Although, latest NAM suggests modest heating by 18z immediately ahead of the front from southwest TX-eastern OK-southwest MO, which should aid destabilization. Forecast soundings along this corridor exhibit steep 0-2km lapse rates, but mid-level values only around 6-6.5 C/km. While effective bulk shear will support organization, thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive, but likely adequate for robust updrafts capable of generating gusty winds and perhaps some hail, especially across portions of west TX. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS TO WESTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from west Texas to western Kentucky. ...West Texas to Western Kentucky... Notable upper low is currently located over the Four Corners region, shifting east in line with latest model guidance. This feature will gradually deamplify as it shifts east into the southern High Plains by the end of the period. As the trough shifts east, upper anticyclone will be suppressed toward the northwestern Gulf Basin and modest southwesterly 500mb flow will overspread west TX into the lower OH Valley. This evolution warrants a surface ridge building south across the High Plains and a sharp cold front should surge across the TX South Plains fairly early in the period, ultimately arcing from the Edwards Plateau-eastern OK-southern MO by 23/00z. This boundary should serve as the primary focus for potential robust convection through the period. Early this morning, scattered supercells, and more substantial clusters, are noted across the TX Panhandle into southern KS. This activity will gradually shift east and likely be ongoing in some fashion early in the period. Remnants of these storms, and left over convective debris, may inhibit surface heating near the front. Although, latest NAM suggests modest heating by 18z immediately ahead of the front from southwest TX-eastern OK-southwest MO, which should aid destabilization. Forecast soundings along this corridor exhibit steep 0-2km lapse rates, but mid-level values only around 6-6.5 C/km. While effective bulk shear will support organization, thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive, but likely adequate for robust updrafts capable of generating gusty winds and perhaps some hail, especially across portions of west TX. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS TO WESTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from west Texas to western Kentucky. ...West Texas to Western Kentucky... Notable upper low is currently located over the Four Corners region, shifting east in line with latest model guidance. This feature will gradually deamplify as it shifts east into the southern High Plains by the end of the period. As the trough shifts east, upper anticyclone will be suppressed toward the northwestern Gulf Basin and modest southwesterly 500mb flow will overspread west TX into the lower OH Valley. This evolution warrants a surface ridge building south across the High Plains and a sharp cold front should surge across the TX South Plains fairly early in the period, ultimately arcing from the Edwards Plateau-eastern OK-southern MO by 23/00z. This boundary should serve as the primary focus for potential robust convection through the period. Early this morning, scattered supercells, and more substantial clusters, are noted across the TX Panhandle into southern KS. This activity will gradually shift east and likely be ongoing in some fashion early in the period. Remnants of these storms, and left over convective debris, may inhibit surface heating near the front. Although, latest NAM suggests modest heating by 18z immediately ahead of the front from southwest TX-eastern OK-southwest MO, which should aid destabilization. Forecast soundings along this corridor exhibit steep 0-2km lapse rates, but mid-level values only around 6-6.5 C/km. While effective bulk shear will support organization, thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive, but likely adequate for robust updrafts capable of generating gusty winds and perhaps some hail, especially across portions of west TX. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS TO WESTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from west Texas to western Kentucky. ...West Texas to Western Kentucky... Notable upper low is currently located over the Four Corners region, shifting east in line with latest model guidance. This feature will gradually deamplify as it shifts east into the southern High Plains by the end of the period. As the trough shifts east, upper anticyclone will be suppressed toward the northwestern Gulf Basin and modest southwesterly 500mb flow will overspread west TX into the lower OH Valley. This evolution warrants a surface ridge building south across the High Plains and a sharp cold front should surge across the TX South Plains fairly early in the period, ultimately arcing from the Edwards Plateau-eastern OK-southern MO by 23/00z. This boundary should serve as the primary focus for potential robust convection through the period. Early this morning, scattered supercells, and more substantial clusters, are noted across the TX Panhandle into southern KS. This activity will gradually shift east and likely be ongoing in some fashion early in the period. Remnants of these storms, and left over convective debris, may inhibit surface heating near the front. Although, latest NAM suggests modest heating by 18z immediately ahead of the front from southwest TX-eastern OK-southwest MO, which should aid destabilization. Forecast soundings along this corridor exhibit steep 0-2km lapse rates, but mid-level values only around 6-6.5 C/km. While effective bulk shear will support organization, thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive, but likely adequate for robust updrafts capable of generating gusty winds and perhaps some hail, especially across portions of west TX. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF WEST TEXAS TO WESTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from west Texas to western Kentucky. ...West Texas to Western Kentucky... Notable upper low is currently located over the Four Corners region, shifting east in line with latest model guidance. This feature will gradually deamplify as it shifts east into the southern High Plains by the end of the period. As the trough shifts east, upper anticyclone will be suppressed toward the northwestern Gulf Basin and modest southwesterly 500mb flow will overspread west TX into the lower OH Valley. This evolution warrants a surface ridge building south across the High Plains and a sharp cold front should surge across the TX South Plains fairly early in the period, ultimately arcing from the Edwards Plateau-eastern OK-southern MO by 23/00z. This boundary should serve as the primary focus for potential robust convection through the period. Early this morning, scattered supercells, and more substantial clusters, are noted across the TX Panhandle into southern KS. This activity will gradually shift east and likely be ongoing in some fashion early in the period. Remnants of these storms, and left over convective debris, may inhibit surface heating near the front. Although, latest NAM suggests modest heating by 18z immediately ahead of the front from southwest TX-eastern OK-southwest MO, which should aid destabilization. Forecast soundings along this corridor exhibit steep 0-2km lapse rates, but mid-level values only around 6-6.5 C/km. While effective bulk shear will support organization, thermodynamic profiles are not particularly impressive, but likely adequate for robust updrafts capable of generating gusty winds and perhaps some hail, especially across portions of west TX. ..Darrow/Thornton.. 09/22/2024 Read more

918
ABPZ20 KNHC 220512
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Sep 21 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP94):
A broad area of low pressure is producing an area of showers and
thunderstorms located a few hundred miles south of the coast of
southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some
slow development of this system while it meanders offshore the next
few days, and a tropical depression could form during the early or
middle part of next week when the system begins to move slowly
eastward or northeastward toward the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Central Portion of the East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form well to the southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for some slow development
of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the
early or middle part of next week while the system moves slowly
eastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

WW 0680 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 680 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE HOB TO 20 SSE CAO. ..JEWELL..09/22/24 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 680 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC011-017-045-065-069-079-117-129-153-165-179-189-205-219-233- 279-303-341-359-369-375-381-393-437-445-501-220340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE CARSON CASTRO COCHRAN DEAF SMITH DONLEY FLOYD GAINES GRAY HALE HARTLEY HOCKLEY HUTCHINSON LAMB LUBBOCK MOORE OLDHAM PARMER POTTER RANDALL ROBERTS SWISHER TERRY YOAKUM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0680 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 680 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SE HOB TO 20 SSE CAO. ..JEWELL..09/22/24 ATTN...WFO...ABQ...MAF...AMA...LUB... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 680 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC011-017-045-065-069-079-117-129-153-165-179-189-205-219-233- 279-303-341-359-369-375-381-393-437-445-501-220340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE CARSON CASTRO COCHRAN DEAF SMITH DONLEY FLOYD GAINES GRAY HALE HARTLEY HOCKLEY HUTCHINSON LAMB LUBBOCK MOORE OLDHAM PARMER POTTER RANDALL ROBERTS SWISHER TERRY YOAKUM THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 2096 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 680... FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2096 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0713 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Areas affected...eastern New Mexico into western Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 680... Valid 220013Z - 220315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 680 continues. SUMMARY...The threat of large hail and scattered severe gusts continues from far eastern NM Into parts of the TX Panhandle and South Plains this evening. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis show a cold front extending from west-central OK into east-central NM, with a dryline punching northeastward across central NM. Gusty southeast winds persist across the warm sector over much of the South Plains and into southeast NM, with scattered strong to severe cells both north and south of the cold front. Around 2000 J/kg MLCAPE exists within the instability axis, as indicated on the 00Z MAF. Winds in the lowest few km are mostly unidirectional, before veering to southwesterly around 700 mb. Hodographs are therefore primarily straight line, with elongation in the mid to upper levels. While low-level shear is stronger along the cold front, much of this will remain ineffective due to the cooler air mass. However, the South Plains portion of the front is a bit more favorably oriented for storms to potentially interact for a longer duration before becoming elevated, and a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Otherwise, hail appears to be the primary risk this evening. ..Jewell.. 09/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 32190387 32940368 33690364 34470409 34690452 35190547 35670523 35750420 35430237 35240148 34930115 34080093 33340144 32260234 31850310 31910362 32190387 Read more