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A Level 6 drought alert was issued for Danvers after the town’s water supply fell very low. All outdoor water use was prohibited. An extreme drought alert was announced for the entire Ipswich River basin. The Salem News (Danvers, Mass.), Dec 4, 2024

Trout stocking has been delayed in Oklahoma due to drought and warm water temperatures. Trout fishing areas include Robbers Cave, Sunset Lake, Medicine Creek, Lake Watonga, Turtle Pond, and Blue River. KOKH FOX 25 (Oklahoma City, Okla.), Dec 4, 2024

Gov. Dan McKee issued a drought advisory for all of Rhode Island on Dec. 4. The state’s Drought Steering Committee recommended the advisory, which is the first of four progressive drought declarations, followed by watch, warning, and emergency. WLNE-TV ABC 6 (Providence, R.I.), Dec 4, 2024

No watches are valid as of Wed Dec 4 22:27:01 UTC 2024.

MD 2248 CONCERNING SNOW SQUALL FOR EAST-CENTRAL WISCONSIN INTO PARTS OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 2248 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Areas affected...East-central Wisconsin into parts of central/southern Lower Michigan Concerning...Snow Squall Valid 042140Z - 050045Z SUMMARY...Reduced visibility, moderate to heavy snow, and strong wind gusts are possible with a shallow convective line of snow along the quickly advancing cold front. DISCUSSION...A line of semi-organized, shallow convective snow has continued across eastern Wisconsin. Recent surface observations from Fond du Lac/Oshkosh and vicinity show moderate to heavy snowfall and visibility reduced to around 1/4 mile in some locations. Wind gusts of 40+ kts remain possible as well per surface observation and regional VAD wind profiles. Given the strong frontal forcing, the expectation is for this line to continue across Lake Michigan and eventually impact portions of central/southern Lower Michigan. Some southward expansion of the line is possible, but this should be limited by much warmer temperatures in northeast Illinois into northern Indiana. ..Wendt.. 12/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...GRB...MKX... LAT...LON 43878842 44268793 44248708 43978529 43708411 43358328 42738336 42328383 42308438 42448605 42538657 42588662 43238842 43878842 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z ...Days 3-5/Friday-Sunday... A low-latitude midlevel trough will migrate slowly eastward across the Southwest this weekend, remaining largely cut off from the primary midlevel westerlies. Upstream surface high pressure over the Intermountain West will encourage locally dry/breezy offshore flow across southern CA through the weekend. While elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, the potential for any more than locally critical conditions appears too low for probabilities during this timeframe. On Day 5/Sunday, the midlevel trough will continue eastward across the southern Rockies, promoting lee troughing and strong westerly surface winds amid marginally low RH across the southern High Plains. Critical fire-weather conditions are not currently expected. ...Days 6-7/Monday-Tuesday - Southern California... A strong midlevel jet will advance southward over the West Coast, yielding large-scale trough amplification over the western CONUS. At the same time, a highly amplified midlevel ridge will build over the eastern Pacific, supporting strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. As a result, the offshore pressure gradient will likely strengthen to critical values across southern CA (around -5 to -6 mb LAX-DAG gradient), generally peaking on Day 7/Tuesday morning. This gradient and ample upper-level support will favor a moderate offshore wind event and the potential for critical fire-weather conditions. 40-percent Critical probabilities are in place across the wind-prone areas of southern CA for both days, and higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details become clearer regarding overall timing of the event. ..Weinman.. 12/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z ...Days 3-5/Friday-Sunday... A low-latitude midlevel trough will migrate slowly eastward across the Southwest this weekend, remaining largely cut off from the primary midlevel westerlies. Upstream surface high pressure over the Intermountain West will encourage locally dry/breezy offshore flow across southern CA through the weekend. While elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, the potential for any more than locally critical conditions appears too low for probabilities during this timeframe. On Day 5/Sunday, the midlevel trough will continue eastward across the southern Rockies, promoting lee troughing and strong westerly surface winds amid marginally low RH across the southern High Plains. Critical fire-weather conditions are not currently expected. ...Days 6-7/Monday-Tuesday - Southern California... A strong midlevel jet will advance southward over the West Coast, yielding large-scale trough amplification over the western CONUS. At the same time, a highly amplified midlevel ridge will build over the eastern Pacific, supporting strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. As a result, the offshore pressure gradient will likely strengthen to critical values across southern CA (around -5 to -6 mb LAX-DAG gradient), generally peaking on Day 7/Tuesday morning. This gradient and ample upper-level support will favor a moderate offshore wind event and the potential for critical fire-weather conditions. 40-percent Critical probabilities are in place across the wind-prone areas of southern CA for both days, and higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details become clearer regarding overall timing of the event. ..Weinman.. 12/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z ...Days 3-5/Friday-Sunday... A low-latitude midlevel trough will migrate slowly eastward across the Southwest this weekend, remaining largely cut off from the primary midlevel westerlies. Upstream surface high pressure over the Intermountain West will encourage locally dry/breezy offshore flow across southern CA through the weekend. While elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, the potential for any more than locally critical conditions appears too low for probabilities during this timeframe. On Day 5/Sunday, the midlevel trough will continue eastward across the southern Rockies, promoting lee troughing and strong westerly surface winds amid marginally low RH across the southern High Plains. Critical fire-weather conditions are not currently expected. ...Days 6-7/Monday-Tuesday - Southern California... A strong midlevel jet will advance southward over the West Coast, yielding large-scale trough amplification over the western CONUS. At the same time, a highly amplified midlevel ridge will build over the eastern Pacific, supporting strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. As a result, the offshore pressure gradient will likely strengthen to critical values across southern CA (around -5 to -6 mb LAX-DAG gradient), generally peaking on Day 7/Tuesday morning. This gradient and ample upper-level support will favor a moderate offshore wind event and the potential for critical fire-weather conditions. 40-percent Critical probabilities are in place across the wind-prone areas of southern CA for both days, and higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details become clearer regarding overall timing of the event. ..Weinman.. 12/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z ...Days 3-5/Friday-Sunday... A low-latitude midlevel trough will migrate slowly eastward across the Southwest this weekend, remaining largely cut off from the primary midlevel westerlies. Upstream surface high pressure over the Intermountain West will encourage locally dry/breezy offshore flow across southern CA through the weekend. While elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, the potential for any more than locally critical conditions appears too low for probabilities during this timeframe. On Day 5/Sunday, the midlevel trough will continue eastward across the southern Rockies, promoting lee troughing and strong westerly surface winds amid marginally low RH across the southern High Plains. Critical fire-weather conditions are not currently expected. ...Days 6-7/Monday-Tuesday - Southern California... A strong midlevel jet will advance southward over the West Coast, yielding large-scale trough amplification over the western CONUS. At the same time, a highly amplified midlevel ridge will build over the eastern Pacific, supporting strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. As a result, the offshore pressure gradient will likely strengthen to critical values across southern CA (around -5 to -6 mb LAX-DAG gradient), generally peaking on Day 7/Tuesday morning. This gradient and ample upper-level support will favor a moderate offshore wind event and the potential for critical fire-weather conditions. 40-percent Critical probabilities are in place across the wind-prone areas of southern CA for both days, and higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details become clearer regarding overall timing of the event. ..Weinman.. 12/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 121200Z ...Days 3-5/Friday-Sunday... A low-latitude midlevel trough will migrate slowly eastward across the Southwest this weekend, remaining largely cut off from the primary midlevel westerlies. Upstream surface high pressure over the Intermountain West will encourage locally dry/breezy offshore flow across southern CA through the weekend. While elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, the potential for any more than locally critical conditions appears too low for probabilities during this timeframe. On Day 5/Sunday, the midlevel trough will continue eastward across the southern Rockies, promoting lee troughing and strong westerly surface winds amid marginally low RH across the southern High Plains. Critical fire-weather conditions are not currently expected. ...Days 6-7/Monday-Tuesday - Southern California... A strong midlevel jet will advance southward over the West Coast, yielding large-scale trough amplification over the western CONUS. At the same time, a highly amplified midlevel ridge will build over the eastern Pacific, supporting strengthening surface high pressure over the Intermountain West. As a result, the offshore pressure gradient will likely strengthen to critical values across southern CA (around -5 to -6 mb LAX-DAG gradient), generally peaking on Day 7/Tuesday morning. This gradient and ample upper-level support will favor a moderate offshore wind event and the potential for critical fire-weather conditions. 40-percent Critical probabilities are in place across the wind-prone areas of southern CA for both days, and higher probabilities could eventually be needed as the details become clearer regarding overall timing of the event. ..Weinman.. 12/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Dec 4 21:28:01 UTC 2024.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from North/East Texas to the ArkLaMiss this evening and tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains largely on track with minimal changes to the western edge of the thunder area. A large area of low-level warm-air advection is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of east-central TX and the ArkLaMiss. Elevated atop a relatively cool boundary layer, weak buoyancy and marginal deep-layer shear should limit the severe potential as storms gradually expand north and eastward into tonight. Farther south near the TX/LA Gulf Coast, scattered cloud breaks have materialized allowing for temperatures and surface dewpoints to warm into the low to mid 70s and upper 60s F, respectively. Despite poor low and mid-level lapse rates, continued advection of the higher theta-E airmass inland could support stronger storm development near or just offshore late this afternoon and into the evening. Any stronger storms that do develop may exhibit weak low-level rotation due to large low-level hodographs near the coast. However, the confined nature of the weakly unstable warm sector and overall modest forcing for ascent should tend to limit storm intensity and the severe potential inland. ..Lyons.. 12/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Scattered thunderstorms continue in East Texas and will spread into the ArkLaMiss through the remainder of today/tonight. Ahead of a very weak frontal wave along the middle Texas coast, a narrow zone of surface dewpoints in upper 60s to perhaps low 70s F will have some potential to advance inland along the immediate coast. This should continue into the evening/overnight into parts of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. ...Middle/Upper Texas Coast into Southwest Louisiana... Despite substantial cloud cover, a few surface observations in the vicinity of Matagorda Bay have warmed to the low 70s F. Dewpoints here have also risen to the upper 60s/low 70s F. It is possible a few more robust storms occur near the coast this afternoon into the evening, some of which may exhibit weak low-level rotation due to the low-level shear in the warm advection zone. However, weak lapse rates near the surface and aloft in combination with weak large-scale ascent suggest that storms will likely struggle to maintain intensity. That being said, the threat for severe weather continues to appear low today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from North/East Texas to the ArkLaMiss this evening and tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains largely on track with minimal changes to the western edge of the thunder area. A large area of low-level warm-air advection is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of east-central TX and the ArkLaMiss. Elevated atop a relatively cool boundary layer, weak buoyancy and marginal deep-layer shear should limit the severe potential as storms gradually expand north and eastward into tonight. Farther south near the TX/LA Gulf Coast, scattered cloud breaks have materialized allowing for temperatures and surface dewpoints to warm into the low to mid 70s and upper 60s F, respectively. Despite poor low and mid-level lapse rates, continued advection of the higher theta-E airmass inland could support stronger storm development near or just offshore late this afternoon and into the evening. Any stronger storms that do develop may exhibit weak low-level rotation due to large low-level hodographs near the coast. However, the confined nature of the weakly unstable warm sector and overall modest forcing for ascent should tend to limit storm intensity and the severe potential inland. ..Lyons.. 12/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Scattered thunderstorms continue in East Texas and will spread into the ArkLaMiss through the remainder of today/tonight. Ahead of a very weak frontal wave along the middle Texas coast, a narrow zone of surface dewpoints in upper 60s to perhaps low 70s F will have some potential to advance inland along the immediate coast. This should continue into the evening/overnight into parts of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. ...Middle/Upper Texas Coast into Southwest Louisiana... Despite substantial cloud cover, a few surface observations in the vicinity of Matagorda Bay have warmed to the low 70s F. Dewpoints here have also risen to the upper 60s/low 70s F. It is possible a few more robust storms occur near the coast this afternoon into the evening, some of which may exhibit weak low-level rotation due to the low-level shear in the warm advection zone. However, weak lapse rates near the surface and aloft in combination with weak large-scale ascent suggest that storms will likely struggle to maintain intensity. That being said, the threat for severe weather continues to appear low today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from North/East Texas to the ArkLaMiss this evening and tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains largely on track with minimal changes to the western edge of the thunder area. A large area of low-level warm-air advection is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of east-central TX and the ArkLaMiss. Elevated atop a relatively cool boundary layer, weak buoyancy and marginal deep-layer shear should limit the severe potential as storms gradually expand north and eastward into tonight. Farther south near the TX/LA Gulf Coast, scattered cloud breaks have materialized allowing for temperatures and surface dewpoints to warm into the low to mid 70s and upper 60s F, respectively. Despite poor low and mid-level lapse rates, continued advection of the higher theta-E airmass inland could support stronger storm development near or just offshore late this afternoon and into the evening. Any stronger storms that do develop may exhibit weak low-level rotation due to large low-level hodographs near the coast. However, the confined nature of the weakly unstable warm sector and overall modest forcing for ascent should tend to limit storm intensity and the severe potential inland. ..Lyons.. 12/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Scattered thunderstorms continue in East Texas and will spread into the ArkLaMiss through the remainder of today/tonight. Ahead of a very weak frontal wave along the middle Texas coast, a narrow zone of surface dewpoints in upper 60s to perhaps low 70s F will have some potential to advance inland along the immediate coast. This should continue into the evening/overnight into parts of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. ...Middle/Upper Texas Coast into Southwest Louisiana... Despite substantial cloud cover, a few surface observations in the vicinity of Matagorda Bay have warmed to the low 70s F. Dewpoints here have also risen to the upper 60s/low 70s F. It is possible a few more robust storms occur near the coast this afternoon into the evening, some of which may exhibit weak low-level rotation due to the low-level shear in the warm advection zone. However, weak lapse rates near the surface and aloft in combination with weak large-scale ascent suggest that storms will likely struggle to maintain intensity. That being said, the threat for severe weather continues to appear low today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from North/East Texas to the ArkLaMiss this evening and tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains largely on track with minimal changes to the western edge of the thunder area. A large area of low-level warm-air advection is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of east-central TX and the ArkLaMiss. Elevated atop a relatively cool boundary layer, weak buoyancy and marginal deep-layer shear should limit the severe potential as storms gradually expand north and eastward into tonight. Farther south near the TX/LA Gulf Coast, scattered cloud breaks have materialized allowing for temperatures and surface dewpoints to warm into the low to mid 70s and upper 60s F, respectively. Despite poor low and mid-level lapse rates, continued advection of the higher theta-E airmass inland could support stronger storm development near or just offshore late this afternoon and into the evening. Any stronger storms that do develop may exhibit weak low-level rotation due to large low-level hodographs near the coast. However, the confined nature of the weakly unstable warm sector and overall modest forcing for ascent should tend to limit storm intensity and the severe potential inland. ..Lyons.. 12/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Scattered thunderstorms continue in East Texas and will spread into the ArkLaMiss through the remainder of today/tonight. Ahead of a very weak frontal wave along the middle Texas coast, a narrow zone of surface dewpoints in upper 60s to perhaps low 70s F will have some potential to advance inland along the immediate coast. This should continue into the evening/overnight into parts of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. ...Middle/Upper Texas Coast into Southwest Louisiana... Despite substantial cloud cover, a few surface observations in the vicinity of Matagorda Bay have warmed to the low 70s F. Dewpoints here have also risen to the upper 60s/low 70s F. It is possible a few more robust storms occur near the coast this afternoon into the evening, some of which may exhibit weak low-level rotation due to the low-level shear in the warm advection zone. However, weak lapse rates near the surface and aloft in combination with weak large-scale ascent suggest that storms will likely struggle to maintain intensity. That being said, the threat for severe weather continues to appear low today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from North/East Texas to the ArkLaMiss this evening and tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains largely on track with minimal changes to the western edge of the thunder area. A large area of low-level warm-air advection is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of east-central TX and the ArkLaMiss. Elevated atop a relatively cool boundary layer, weak buoyancy and marginal deep-layer shear should limit the severe potential as storms gradually expand north and eastward into tonight. Farther south near the TX/LA Gulf Coast, scattered cloud breaks have materialized allowing for temperatures and surface dewpoints to warm into the low to mid 70s and upper 60s F, respectively. Despite poor low and mid-level lapse rates, continued advection of the higher theta-E airmass inland could support stronger storm development near or just offshore late this afternoon and into the evening. Any stronger storms that do develop may exhibit weak low-level rotation due to large low-level hodographs near the coast. However, the confined nature of the weakly unstable warm sector and overall modest forcing for ascent should tend to limit storm intensity and the severe potential inland. ..Lyons.. 12/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Scattered thunderstorms continue in East Texas and will spread into the ArkLaMiss through the remainder of today/tonight. Ahead of a very weak frontal wave along the middle Texas coast, a narrow zone of surface dewpoints in upper 60s to perhaps low 70s F will have some potential to advance inland along the immediate coast. This should continue into the evening/overnight into parts of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. ...Middle/Upper Texas Coast into Southwest Louisiana... Despite substantial cloud cover, a few surface observations in the vicinity of Matagorda Bay have warmed to the low 70s F. Dewpoints here have also risen to the upper 60s/low 70s F. It is possible a few more robust storms occur near the coast this afternoon into the evening, some of which may exhibit weak low-level rotation due to the low-level shear in the warm advection zone. However, weak lapse rates near the surface and aloft in combination with weak large-scale ascent suggest that storms will likely struggle to maintain intensity. That being said, the threat for severe weather continues to appear low today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from North/East Texas to the ArkLaMiss this evening and tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains largely on track with minimal changes to the western edge of the thunder area. A large area of low-level warm-air advection is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of east-central TX and the ArkLaMiss. Elevated atop a relatively cool boundary layer, weak buoyancy and marginal deep-layer shear should limit the severe potential as storms gradually expand north and eastward into tonight. Farther south near the TX/LA Gulf Coast, scattered cloud breaks have materialized allowing for temperatures and surface dewpoints to warm into the low to mid 70s and upper 60s F, respectively. Despite poor low and mid-level lapse rates, continued advection of the higher theta-E airmass inland could support stronger storm development near or just offshore late this afternoon and into the evening. Any stronger storms that do develop may exhibit weak low-level rotation due to large low-level hodographs near the coast. However, the confined nature of the weakly unstable warm sector and overall modest forcing for ascent should tend to limit storm intensity and the severe potential inland. ..Lyons.. 12/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Scattered thunderstorms continue in East Texas and will spread into the ArkLaMiss through the remainder of today/tonight. Ahead of a very weak frontal wave along the middle Texas coast, a narrow zone of surface dewpoints in upper 60s to perhaps low 70s F will have some potential to advance inland along the immediate coast. This should continue into the evening/overnight into parts of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. ...Middle/Upper Texas Coast into Southwest Louisiana... Despite substantial cloud cover, a few surface observations in the vicinity of Matagorda Bay have warmed to the low 70s F. Dewpoints here have also risen to the upper 60s/low 70s F. It is possible a few more robust storms occur near the coast this afternoon into the evening, some of which may exhibit weak low-level rotation due to the low-level shear in the warm advection zone. However, weak lapse rates near the surface and aloft in combination with weak large-scale ascent suggest that storms will likely struggle to maintain intensity. That being said, the threat for severe weather continues to appear low today. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from North/East Texas to the ArkLaMiss this evening and tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected. ...20Z Update... The previous forecast remains largely on track with minimal changes to the western edge of the thunder area. A large area of low-level warm-air advection is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across portions of east-central TX and the ArkLaMiss. Elevated atop a relatively cool boundary layer, weak buoyancy and marginal deep-layer shear should limit the severe potential as storms gradually expand north and eastward into tonight. Farther south near the TX/LA Gulf Coast, scattered cloud breaks have materialized allowing for temperatures and surface dewpoints to warm into the low to mid 70s and upper 60s F, respectively. Despite poor low and mid-level lapse rates, continued advection of the higher theta-E airmass inland could support stronger storm development near or just offshore late this afternoon and into the evening. Any stronger storms that do develop may exhibit weak low-level rotation due to large low-level hodographs near the coast. However, the confined nature of the weakly unstable warm sector and overall modest forcing for ascent should tend to limit storm intensity and the severe potential inland. ..Lyons.. 12/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1023 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... Scattered thunderstorms continue in East Texas and will spread into the ArkLaMiss through the remainder of today/tonight. Ahead of a very weak frontal wave along the middle Texas coast, a narrow zone of surface dewpoints in upper 60s to perhaps low 70s F will have some potential to advance inland along the immediate coast. This should continue into the evening/overnight into parts of southeast Texas and southwest Louisiana. ...Middle/Upper Texas Coast into Southwest Louisiana... Despite substantial cloud cover, a few surface observations in the vicinity of Matagorda Bay have warmed to the low 70s F. Dewpoints here have also risen to the upper 60s/low 70s F. It is possible a few more robust storms occur near the coast this afternoon into the evening, some of which may exhibit weak low-level rotation due to the low-level shear in the warm advection zone. However, weak lapse rates near the surface and aloft in combination with weak large-scale ascent suggest that storms will likely struggle to maintain intensity. That being said, the threat for severe weather continues to appear low today. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across portions of central Texas. ...Synopsis... The upper low/trough over the Southwest and northwest Mexico will minutely shift east on Friday. As this occurs, modestly enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains. Boundary layer moisture will remain scant across TX due to prior cold frontal intrusion into the Gulf of Mexico. However, a few elevated thunderstorms will be possible across central TX. Increasing midlevel moisture coupled with steep midlevel lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will support meager elevated instability. Subtle large-scale ascent associated with the eastward creeping upper trough may be sufficient to aid in isolated lightning flashes. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 12/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across portions of central Texas. ...Synopsis... The upper low/trough over the Southwest and northwest Mexico will minutely shift east on Friday. As this occurs, modestly enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains. Boundary layer moisture will remain scant across TX due to prior cold frontal intrusion into the Gulf of Mexico. However, a few elevated thunderstorms will be possible across central TX. Increasing midlevel moisture coupled with steep midlevel lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will support meager elevated instability. Subtle large-scale ascent associated with the eastward creeping upper trough may be sufficient to aid in isolated lightning flashes. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 12/04/2024 Read more