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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... A broad and deep upper trough is present today over the eastern CONUS, with widespread stable conditions. The only areas with some risk of thunderstorms will be along the Gulf Coast this afternoon, and in vicinity of southern NM/southwest TX later tonight. In both areas, weak instability will preclude a concern for severe storms. ..Hart/Wendt.. 12/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... A broad and deep upper trough is present today over the eastern CONUS, with widespread stable conditions. The only areas with some risk of thunderstorms will be along the Gulf Coast this afternoon, and in vicinity of southern NM/southwest TX later tonight. In both areas, weak instability will preclude a concern for severe storms. ..Hart/Wendt.. 12/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... A broad and deep upper trough is present today over the eastern CONUS, with widespread stable conditions. The only areas with some risk of thunderstorms will be along the Gulf Coast this afternoon, and in vicinity of southern NM/southwest TX later tonight. In both areas, weak instability will preclude a concern for severe storms. ..Hart/Wendt.. 12/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... A broad and deep upper trough is present today over the eastern CONUS, with widespread stable conditions. The only areas with some risk of thunderstorms will be along the Gulf Coast this afternoon, and in vicinity of southern NM/southwest TX later tonight. In both areas, weak instability will preclude a concern for severe storms. ..Hart/Wendt.. 12/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... A broad and deep upper trough is present today over the eastern CONUS, with widespread stable conditions. The only areas with some risk of thunderstorms will be along the Gulf Coast this afternoon, and in vicinity of southern NM/southwest TX later tonight. In both areas, weak instability will preclude a concern for severe storms. ..Hart/Wendt.. 12/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... A broad and deep upper trough is present today over the eastern CONUS, with widespread stable conditions. The only areas with some risk of thunderstorms will be along the Gulf Coast this afternoon, and in vicinity of southern NM/southwest TX later tonight. In both areas, weak instability will preclude a concern for severe storms. ..Hart/Wendt.. 12/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1008 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... A broad and deep upper trough is present today over the eastern CONUS, with widespread stable conditions. The only areas with some risk of thunderstorms will be along the Gulf Coast this afternoon, and in vicinity of southern NM/southwest TX later tonight. In both areas, weak instability will preclude a concern for severe storms. ..Hart/Wendt.. 12/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... An upper trough will continue to shift quickly east-northeastward today over the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, with a secondary speed max/clipper-type wave spreading southeastward over Manitoba/northern Ontario toward the Upper Great Lakes tonight. Over the Southwest, an upper low will remain quasi-stationary over the southern Arizona and northwest Mexico vicinity. Along the middle Gulf Coast, a few isolated elevated thunderstorms may still occur early today, but the overall convective potential is expected to dwindle as a cold front continues south-southeastward into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes could occur tonight with a potential increase in elevated convection across far West Texas/far southern New Mexico in advance of an upper low over northwest Mexico, and possibly near the Deep South Texas coast. Severe storms are unlikely in each of these scenarios as overall buoyancy will be limited. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... An upper trough will continue to shift quickly east-northeastward today over the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, with a secondary speed max/clipper-type wave spreading southeastward over Manitoba/northern Ontario toward the Upper Great Lakes tonight. Over the Southwest, an upper low will remain quasi-stationary over the southern Arizona and northwest Mexico vicinity. Along the middle Gulf Coast, a few isolated elevated thunderstorms may still occur early today, but the overall convective potential is expected to dwindle as a cold front continues south-southeastward into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes could occur tonight with a potential increase in elevated convection across far West Texas/far southern New Mexico in advance of an upper low over northwest Mexico, and possibly near the Deep South Texas coast. Severe storms are unlikely in each of these scenarios as overall buoyancy will be limited. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... An upper trough will continue to shift quickly east-northeastward today over the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, with a secondary speed max/clipper-type wave spreading southeastward over Manitoba/northern Ontario toward the Upper Great Lakes tonight. Over the Southwest, an upper low will remain quasi-stationary over the southern Arizona and northwest Mexico vicinity. Along the middle Gulf Coast, a few isolated elevated thunderstorms may still occur early today, but the overall convective potential is expected to dwindle as a cold front continues south-southeastward into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes could occur tonight with a potential increase in elevated convection across far West Texas/far southern New Mexico in advance of an upper low over northwest Mexico, and possibly near the Deep South Texas coast. Severe storms are unlikely in each of these scenarios as overall buoyancy will be limited. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... An upper trough will continue to shift quickly east-northeastward today over the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, with a secondary speed max/clipper-type wave spreading southeastward over Manitoba/northern Ontario toward the Upper Great Lakes tonight. Over the Southwest, an upper low will remain quasi-stationary over the southern Arizona and northwest Mexico vicinity. Along the middle Gulf Coast, a few isolated elevated thunderstorms may still occur early today, but the overall convective potential is expected to dwindle as a cold front continues south-southeastward into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes could occur tonight with a potential increase in elevated convection across far West Texas/far southern New Mexico in advance of an upper low over northwest Mexico, and possibly near the Deep South Texas coast. Severe storms are unlikely in each of these scenarios as overall buoyancy will be limited. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... An upper trough will continue to shift quickly east-northeastward today over the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, with a secondary speed max/clipper-type wave spreading southeastward over Manitoba/northern Ontario toward the Upper Great Lakes tonight. Over the Southwest, an upper low will remain quasi-stationary over the southern Arizona and northwest Mexico vicinity. Along the middle Gulf Coast, a few isolated elevated thunderstorms may still occur early today, but the overall convective potential is expected to dwindle as a cold front continues south-southeastward into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes could occur tonight with a potential increase in elevated convection across far West Texas/far southern New Mexico in advance of an upper low over northwest Mexico, and possibly near the Deep South Texas coast. Severe storms are unlikely in each of these scenarios as overall buoyancy will be limited. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... An upper trough will continue to shift quickly east-northeastward today over the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, with a secondary speed max/clipper-type wave spreading southeastward over Manitoba/northern Ontario toward the Upper Great Lakes tonight. Over the Southwest, an upper low will remain quasi-stationary over the southern Arizona and northwest Mexico vicinity. Along the middle Gulf Coast, a few isolated elevated thunderstorms may still occur early today, but the overall convective potential is expected to dwindle as a cold front continues south-southeastward into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes could occur tonight with a potential increase in elevated convection across far West Texas/far southern New Mexico in advance of an upper low over northwest Mexico, and possibly near the Deep South Texas coast. Severe storms are unlikely in each of these scenarios as overall buoyancy will be limited. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 051300Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... An upper trough will continue to shift quickly east-northeastward today over the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast, with a secondary speed max/clipper-type wave spreading southeastward over Manitoba/northern Ontario toward the Upper Great Lakes tonight. Over the Southwest, an upper low will remain quasi-stationary over the southern Arizona and northwest Mexico vicinity. Along the middle Gulf Coast, a few isolated elevated thunderstorms may still occur early today, but the overall convective potential is expected to dwindle as a cold front continues south-southeastward into the northern Gulf of Mexico. Elsewhere, isolated lightning flashes could occur tonight with a potential increase in elevated convection across far West Texas/far southern New Mexico in advance of an upper low over northwest Mexico, and possibly near the Deep South Texas coast. Severe storms are unlikely in each of these scenarios as overall buoyancy will be limited. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/05/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Ridging will start to build into the Southeast this weekend with a series of troughs moving through the western CONUS as a more progressive pattern evolves. As ridging builds across the Southeast, the surface pattern will result in favorable trajectories for significant moisture recovery across the Gulf of Mexico. Some of this richer moisture will likely advect inland across portions of the Gulf Coast and Southeast early next week. The inland moisture intrusion combined with the arrival of several troughs within a progressive pattern would suggest the potential for some severe weather. However, there still remains uncertainty in the upper-level pattern and the degree of destabilization. The ECMWF shows a sharpening trough moving across east Texas late Sunday. A strengthening low-level jet will be associated with this trough with increasing low-level moisture across parts of East Texas and Louisiana. However, instability is forecast to remain quite weak with a mostly moist-adiabatic thermodynamic environment in the region. Some severe weather could be possible in this scenario, but the weak instability will likely preclude a greater threat. The GFS shows more of a closed low moving into the central Plains with forcing further displaced from the better low-level moisture and thus minimal severe weather potential on Day4/Sunday. Beyond Day 4 there will be some severe weather potential as a large trough crosses the western CONUS and digs into the southern Plains with moisture inland across the Gulf Coast and Southeast. A wide range of possibilities remain due to the complicated upper-level pattern and variance among forecast guidance. Therefore, there are no specific periods with greater severe weather concern, but the extended range will need to be monitored given the presence of an approaching large-scale trough and inland 60F+ dewpoints. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Ridging will start to build into the Southeast this weekend with a series of troughs moving through the western CONUS as a more progressive pattern evolves. As ridging builds across the Southeast, the surface pattern will result in favorable trajectories for significant moisture recovery across the Gulf of Mexico. Some of this richer moisture will likely advect inland across portions of the Gulf Coast and Southeast early next week. The inland moisture intrusion combined with the arrival of several troughs within a progressive pattern would suggest the potential for some severe weather. However, there still remains uncertainty in the upper-level pattern and the degree of destabilization. The ECMWF shows a sharpening trough moving across east Texas late Sunday. A strengthening low-level jet will be associated with this trough with increasing low-level moisture across parts of East Texas and Louisiana. However, instability is forecast to remain quite weak with a mostly moist-adiabatic thermodynamic environment in the region. Some severe weather could be possible in this scenario, but the weak instability will likely preclude a greater threat. The GFS shows more of a closed low moving into the central Plains with forcing further displaced from the better low-level moisture and thus minimal severe weather potential on Day4/Sunday. Beyond Day 4 there will be some severe weather potential as a large trough crosses the western CONUS and digs into the southern Plains with moisture inland across the Gulf Coast and Southeast. A wide range of possibilities remain due to the complicated upper-level pattern and variance among forecast guidance. Therefore, there are no specific periods with greater severe weather concern, but the extended range will need to be monitored given the presence of an approaching large-scale trough and inland 60F+ dewpoints. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Ridging will start to build into the Southeast this weekend with a series of troughs moving through the western CONUS as a more progressive pattern evolves. As ridging builds across the Southeast, the surface pattern will result in favorable trajectories for significant moisture recovery across the Gulf of Mexico. Some of this richer moisture will likely advect inland across portions of the Gulf Coast and Southeast early next week. The inland moisture intrusion combined with the arrival of several troughs within a progressive pattern would suggest the potential for some severe weather. However, there still remains uncertainty in the upper-level pattern and the degree of destabilization. The ECMWF shows a sharpening trough moving across east Texas late Sunday. A strengthening low-level jet will be associated with this trough with increasing low-level moisture across parts of East Texas and Louisiana. However, instability is forecast to remain quite weak with a mostly moist-adiabatic thermodynamic environment in the region. Some severe weather could be possible in this scenario, but the weak instability will likely preclude a greater threat. The GFS shows more of a closed low moving into the central Plains with forcing further displaced from the better low-level moisture and thus minimal severe weather potential on Day4/Sunday. Beyond Day 4 there will be some severe weather potential as a large trough crosses the western CONUS and digs into the southern Plains with moisture inland across the Gulf Coast and Southeast. A wide range of possibilities remain due to the complicated upper-level pattern and variance among forecast guidance. Therefore, there are no specific periods with greater severe weather concern, but the extended range will need to be monitored given the presence of an approaching large-scale trough and inland 60F+ dewpoints. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Ridging will start to build into the Southeast this weekend with a series of troughs moving through the western CONUS as a more progressive pattern evolves. As ridging builds across the Southeast, the surface pattern will result in favorable trajectories for significant moisture recovery across the Gulf of Mexico. Some of this richer moisture will likely advect inland across portions of the Gulf Coast and Southeast early next week. The inland moisture intrusion combined with the arrival of several troughs within a progressive pattern would suggest the potential for some severe weather. However, there still remains uncertainty in the upper-level pattern and the degree of destabilization. The ECMWF shows a sharpening trough moving across east Texas late Sunday. A strengthening low-level jet will be associated with this trough with increasing low-level moisture across parts of East Texas and Louisiana. However, instability is forecast to remain quite weak with a mostly moist-adiabatic thermodynamic environment in the region. Some severe weather could be possible in this scenario, but the weak instability will likely preclude a greater threat. The GFS shows more of a closed low moving into the central Plains with forcing further displaced from the better low-level moisture and thus minimal severe weather potential on Day4/Sunday. Beyond Day 4 there will be some severe weather potential as a large trough crosses the western CONUS and digs into the southern Plains with moisture inland across the Gulf Coast and Southeast. A wide range of possibilities remain due to the complicated upper-level pattern and variance among forecast guidance. Therefore, there are no specific periods with greater severe weather concern, but the extended range will need to be monitored given the presence of an approaching large-scale trough and inland 60F+ dewpoints. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Ridging will start to build into the Southeast this weekend with a series of troughs moving through the western CONUS as a more progressive pattern evolves. As ridging builds across the Southeast, the surface pattern will result in favorable trajectories for significant moisture recovery across the Gulf of Mexico. Some of this richer moisture will likely advect inland across portions of the Gulf Coast and Southeast early next week. The inland moisture intrusion combined with the arrival of several troughs within a progressive pattern would suggest the potential for some severe weather. However, there still remains uncertainty in the upper-level pattern and the degree of destabilization. The ECMWF shows a sharpening trough moving across east Texas late Sunday. A strengthening low-level jet will be associated with this trough with increasing low-level moisture across parts of East Texas and Louisiana. However, instability is forecast to remain quite weak with a mostly moist-adiabatic thermodynamic environment in the region. Some severe weather could be possible in this scenario, but the weak instability will likely preclude a greater threat. The GFS shows more of a closed low moving into the central Plains with forcing further displaced from the better low-level moisture and thus minimal severe weather potential on Day4/Sunday. Beyond Day 4 there will be some severe weather potential as a large trough crosses the western CONUS and digs into the southern Plains with moisture inland across the Gulf Coast and Southeast. A wide range of possibilities remain due to the complicated upper-level pattern and variance among forecast guidance. Therefore, there are no specific periods with greater severe weather concern, but the extended range will need to be monitored given the presence of an approaching large-scale trough and inland 60F+ dewpoints. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... Ridging will start to build into the Southeast this weekend with a series of troughs moving through the western CONUS as a more progressive pattern evolves. As ridging builds across the Southeast, the surface pattern will result in favorable trajectories for significant moisture recovery across the Gulf of Mexico. Some of this richer moisture will likely advect inland across portions of the Gulf Coast and Southeast early next week. The inland moisture intrusion combined with the arrival of several troughs within a progressive pattern would suggest the potential for some severe weather. However, there still remains uncertainty in the upper-level pattern and the degree of destabilization. The ECMWF shows a sharpening trough moving across east Texas late Sunday. A strengthening low-level jet will be associated with this trough with increasing low-level moisture across parts of East Texas and Louisiana. However, instability is forecast to remain quite weak with a mostly moist-adiabatic thermodynamic environment in the region. Some severe weather could be possible in this scenario, but the weak instability will likely preclude a greater threat. The GFS shows more of a closed low moving into the central Plains with forcing further displaced from the better low-level moisture and thus minimal severe weather potential on Day4/Sunday. Beyond Day 4 there will be some severe weather potential as a large trough crosses the western CONUS and digs into the southern Plains with moisture inland across the Gulf Coast and Southeast. A wide range of possibilities remain due to the complicated upper-level pattern and variance among forecast guidance. Therefore, there are no specific periods with greater severe weather concern, but the extended range will need to be monitored given the presence of an approaching large-scale trough and inland 60F+ dewpoints. Read more