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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Broad troughing aloft will continue over much of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest on Tuesday. A lead shortwave perturbation will initially be located in the Ozarks/lower Ohio Valley region and move northeastward and weaken with time. In the Plains, another shortwave perturbation will dig southward into the southern Plains by Wednesday morning. This feature will get cut off from the stronger upper-level flow in the Upper Great Lakes. Overall, a generally weakening upper-level system will promote weak to modest height falls across parts of the Tennessee Valley with a weak cold front/surface low moving slowly eastward with time. ...Tennessee Valley... Early day precipitation potential will again be possible. The location and degree of surface destabilization remains in question. It is possible for a few storms to develop during the afternoon along the cold front. Mid-level flow will be sufficient for modest storm organization in the strongest storms. However, continued poor mid-level lapse rates and lack of focused forcing for ascent leaves coverage of potentially severe storms in doubt. While a conditional threat for isolated large hail and damaging winds may develop, severe probabilities will be withheld and trends in guidance will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Broad troughing aloft will continue over much of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest on Tuesday. A lead shortwave perturbation will initially be located in the Ozarks/lower Ohio Valley region and move northeastward and weaken with time. In the Plains, another shortwave perturbation will dig southward into the southern Plains by Wednesday morning. This feature will get cut off from the stronger upper-level flow in the Upper Great Lakes. Overall, a generally weakening upper-level system will promote weak to modest height falls across parts of the Tennessee Valley with a weak cold front/surface low moving slowly eastward with time. ...Tennessee Valley... Early day precipitation potential will again be possible. The location and degree of surface destabilization remains in question. It is possible for a few storms to develop during the afternoon along the cold front. Mid-level flow will be sufficient for modest storm organization in the strongest storms. However, continued poor mid-level lapse rates and lack of focused forcing for ascent leaves coverage of potentially severe storms in doubt. While a conditional threat for isolated large hail and damaging winds may develop, severe probabilities will be withheld and trends in guidance will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Broad troughing aloft will continue over much of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest on Tuesday. A lead shortwave perturbation will initially be located in the Ozarks/lower Ohio Valley region and move northeastward and weaken with time. In the Plains, another shortwave perturbation will dig southward into the southern Plains by Wednesday morning. This feature will get cut off from the stronger upper-level flow in the Upper Great Lakes. Overall, a generally weakening upper-level system will promote weak to modest height falls across parts of the Tennessee Valley with a weak cold front/surface low moving slowly eastward with time. ...Tennessee Valley... Early day precipitation potential will again be possible. The location and degree of surface destabilization remains in question. It is possible for a few storms to develop during the afternoon along the cold front. Mid-level flow will be sufficient for modest storm organization in the strongest storms. However, continued poor mid-level lapse rates and lack of focused forcing for ascent leaves coverage of potentially severe storms in doubt. While a conditional threat for isolated large hail and damaging winds may develop, severe probabilities will be withheld and trends in guidance will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Broad troughing aloft will continue over much of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest on Tuesday. A lead shortwave perturbation will initially be located in the Ozarks/lower Ohio Valley region and move northeastward and weaken with time. In the Plains, another shortwave perturbation will dig southward into the southern Plains by Wednesday morning. This feature will get cut off from the stronger upper-level flow in the Upper Great Lakes. Overall, a generally weakening upper-level system will promote weak to modest height falls across parts of the Tennessee Valley with a weak cold front/surface low moving slowly eastward with time. ...Tennessee Valley... Early day precipitation potential will again be possible. The location and degree of surface destabilization remains in question. It is possible for a few storms to develop during the afternoon along the cold front. Mid-level flow will be sufficient for modest storm organization in the strongest storms. However, continued poor mid-level lapse rates and lack of focused forcing for ascent leaves coverage of potentially severe storms in doubt. While a conditional threat for isolated large hail and damaging winds may develop, severe probabilities will be withheld and trends in guidance will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Broad troughing aloft will continue over much of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest on Tuesday. A lead shortwave perturbation will initially be located in the Ozarks/lower Ohio Valley region and move northeastward and weaken with time. In the Plains, another shortwave perturbation will dig southward into the southern Plains by Wednesday morning. This feature will get cut off from the stronger upper-level flow in the Upper Great Lakes. Overall, a generally weakening upper-level system will promote weak to modest height falls across parts of the Tennessee Valley with a weak cold front/surface low moving slowly eastward with time. ...Tennessee Valley... Early day precipitation potential will again be possible. The location and degree of surface destabilization remains in question. It is possible for a few storms to develop during the afternoon along the cold front. Mid-level flow will be sufficient for modest storm organization in the strongest storms. However, continued poor mid-level lapse rates and lack of focused forcing for ascent leaves coverage of potentially severe storms in doubt. While a conditional threat for isolated large hail and damaging winds may develop, severe probabilities will be withheld and trends in guidance will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. Fire weather concerns remain minimal on Monday. ..Bentley.. 09/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on Monday across the CONUS. Across the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with warming conditions. Though some dry conditions are expected to continue across the southwest, generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. Fire weather concerns remain minimal on Monday. ..Bentley.. 09/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on Monday across the CONUS. Across the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with warming conditions. Though some dry conditions are expected to continue across the southwest, generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. Fire weather concerns remain minimal on Monday. ..Bentley.. 09/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on Monday across the CONUS. Across the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with warming conditions. Though some dry conditions are expected to continue across the southwest, generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. Fire weather concerns remain minimal on Monday. ..Bentley.. 09/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on Monday across the CONUS. Across the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with warming conditions. Though some dry conditions are expected to continue across the southwest, generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. Fire weather concerns remain minimal on Monday. ..Bentley.. 09/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on Monday across the CONUS. Across the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with warming conditions. Though some dry conditions are expected to continue across the southwest, generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. Fire weather concerns remain minimal on Monday. ..Bentley.. 09/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0151 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on Monday across the CONUS. Across the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with warming conditions. Though some dry conditions are expected to continue across the southwest, generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221751
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 22 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP94):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with an area of low pressure located less than 200 miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions
appear conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is likely to form during the next day
or two while the system drifts northeastward or northward toward the
coast of southern Mexico. Interests in southern Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system, as watches or warnings could be
required later today or tonight. Regardless of development, this
system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of southern
Mexico this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Central Portion of the East Pacific:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles
west-southwest of southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for some slow development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form during the middle part of the week while the
system moves slowly eastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE OZARKS INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys on Monday. ...Synopsis... A broad, positively-tilted trough will slowly progress eastward through the central Plains and into the Ozarks/lower Ohio Valley vicinity by Tuesday morning. A belt of moderate mid-level flow will stretch from near the Red River into Tennessee, Kentucky, and southern Illinois/Indiana. Given the nature of the trough, a rather weak surface pattern is expected. However, a cold front is expected to reside from the southern Great Lakes region into the Ozarks with a weak surface low in the Mid-South making some northward progress during the period. To the south of the front, a moist airmass should remain in place with mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints. ...Ozarks Vicinity... Cloud cover and precipitation will likely be present Monday morning. The degree of destabilization during the afternoon will be uncertain. Model guidance has some confidence in heating into parts of central Arkansas, but the northern extent of stronger heating is the primary question. With the cold front taking on a more north-south orientation in this region, 35-45 kts of effective shear across the boundary could promote a more discrete storm mode. Should sufficient destabilization occur, isolated large hail and damaging winds would be possible. Poor mid-level lapse rates should tend to limit overall intensity of most storms. ...Portions of Tennessee/lower Ohio Valleys... As with areas farther west, there will be some potential for precipitation and cloud cover Monday morning, especially with northern extent. South of the surface boundary, at least broken cloud cover should allow for sufficient heating to promote around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. 40-50 kts of shear parallel to the boundary will allow some potential for storm organization. Damaging winds would likely be the primary threat, though isolated large hail is possible in the strongest, discrete storms. As the trough moves east and the surface boundary slowly lifts northward into Tuesday morning, some stronger elevated activity could move into southern Illinois/Indiana during the overnight. There is spread in how far north the boundary moves and the degree of elevated buoyancy, but some potential for small to marginally severe hail and an isolated damaging wind gust will exist. ..Wendt.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE OZARKS INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys on Monday. ...Synopsis... A broad, positively-tilted trough will slowly progress eastward through the central Plains and into the Ozarks/lower Ohio Valley vicinity by Tuesday morning. A belt of moderate mid-level flow will stretch from near the Red River into Tennessee, Kentucky, and southern Illinois/Indiana. Given the nature of the trough, a rather weak surface pattern is expected. However, a cold front is expected to reside from the southern Great Lakes region into the Ozarks with a weak surface low in the Mid-South making some northward progress during the period. To the south of the front, a moist airmass should remain in place with mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints. ...Ozarks Vicinity... Cloud cover and precipitation will likely be present Monday morning. The degree of destabilization during the afternoon will be uncertain. Model guidance has some confidence in heating into parts of central Arkansas, but the northern extent of stronger heating is the primary question. With the cold front taking on a more north-south orientation in this region, 35-45 kts of effective shear across the boundary could promote a more discrete storm mode. Should sufficient destabilization occur, isolated large hail and damaging winds would be possible. Poor mid-level lapse rates should tend to limit overall intensity of most storms. ...Portions of Tennessee/lower Ohio Valleys... As with areas farther west, there will be some potential for precipitation and cloud cover Monday morning, especially with northern extent. South of the surface boundary, at least broken cloud cover should allow for sufficient heating to promote around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. 40-50 kts of shear parallel to the boundary will allow some potential for storm organization. Damaging winds would likely be the primary threat, though isolated large hail is possible in the strongest, discrete storms. As the trough moves east and the surface boundary slowly lifts northward into Tuesday morning, some stronger elevated activity could move into southern Illinois/Indiana during the overnight. There is spread in how far north the boundary moves and the degree of elevated buoyancy, but some potential for small to marginally severe hail and an isolated damaging wind gust will exist. ..Wendt.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE OZARKS INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys on Monday. ...Synopsis... A broad, positively-tilted trough will slowly progress eastward through the central Plains and into the Ozarks/lower Ohio Valley vicinity by Tuesday morning. A belt of moderate mid-level flow will stretch from near the Red River into Tennessee, Kentucky, and southern Illinois/Indiana. Given the nature of the trough, a rather weak surface pattern is expected. However, a cold front is expected to reside from the southern Great Lakes region into the Ozarks with a weak surface low in the Mid-South making some northward progress during the period. To the south of the front, a moist airmass should remain in place with mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints. ...Ozarks Vicinity... Cloud cover and precipitation will likely be present Monday morning. The degree of destabilization during the afternoon will be uncertain. Model guidance has some confidence in heating into parts of central Arkansas, but the northern extent of stronger heating is the primary question. With the cold front taking on a more north-south orientation in this region, 35-45 kts of effective shear across the boundary could promote a more discrete storm mode. Should sufficient destabilization occur, isolated large hail and damaging winds would be possible. Poor mid-level lapse rates should tend to limit overall intensity of most storms. ...Portions of Tennessee/lower Ohio Valleys... As with areas farther west, there will be some potential for precipitation and cloud cover Monday morning, especially with northern extent. South of the surface boundary, at least broken cloud cover should allow for sufficient heating to promote around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. 40-50 kts of shear parallel to the boundary will allow some potential for storm organization. Damaging winds would likely be the primary threat, though isolated large hail is possible in the strongest, discrete storms. As the trough moves east and the surface boundary slowly lifts northward into Tuesday morning, some stronger elevated activity could move into southern Illinois/Indiana during the overnight. There is spread in how far north the boundary moves and the degree of elevated buoyancy, but some potential for small to marginally severe hail and an isolated damaging wind gust will exist. ..Wendt.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE OZARKS INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys on Monday. ...Synopsis... A broad, positively-tilted trough will slowly progress eastward through the central Plains and into the Ozarks/lower Ohio Valley vicinity by Tuesday morning. A belt of moderate mid-level flow will stretch from near the Red River into Tennessee, Kentucky, and southern Illinois/Indiana. Given the nature of the trough, a rather weak surface pattern is expected. However, a cold front is expected to reside from the southern Great Lakes region into the Ozarks with a weak surface low in the Mid-South making some northward progress during the period. To the south of the front, a moist airmass should remain in place with mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints. ...Ozarks Vicinity... Cloud cover and precipitation will likely be present Monday morning. The degree of destabilization during the afternoon will be uncertain. Model guidance has some confidence in heating into parts of central Arkansas, but the northern extent of stronger heating is the primary question. With the cold front taking on a more north-south orientation in this region, 35-45 kts of effective shear across the boundary could promote a more discrete storm mode. Should sufficient destabilization occur, isolated large hail and damaging winds would be possible. Poor mid-level lapse rates should tend to limit overall intensity of most storms. ...Portions of Tennessee/lower Ohio Valleys... As with areas farther west, there will be some potential for precipitation and cloud cover Monday morning, especially with northern extent. South of the surface boundary, at least broken cloud cover should allow for sufficient heating to promote around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. 40-50 kts of shear parallel to the boundary will allow some potential for storm organization. Damaging winds would likely be the primary threat, though isolated large hail is possible in the strongest, discrete storms. As the trough moves east and the surface boundary slowly lifts northward into Tuesday morning, some stronger elevated activity could move into southern Illinois/Indiana during the overnight. There is spread in how far north the boundary moves and the degree of elevated buoyancy, but some potential for small to marginally severe hail and an isolated damaging wind gust will exist. ..Wendt.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE OZARKS INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys on Monday. ...Synopsis... A broad, positively-tilted trough will slowly progress eastward through the central Plains and into the Ozarks/lower Ohio Valley vicinity by Tuesday morning. A belt of moderate mid-level flow will stretch from near the Red River into Tennessee, Kentucky, and southern Illinois/Indiana. Given the nature of the trough, a rather weak surface pattern is expected. However, a cold front is expected to reside from the southern Great Lakes region into the Ozarks with a weak surface low in the Mid-South making some northward progress during the period. To the south of the front, a moist airmass should remain in place with mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints. ...Ozarks Vicinity... Cloud cover and precipitation will likely be present Monday morning. The degree of destabilization during the afternoon will be uncertain. Model guidance has some confidence in heating into parts of central Arkansas, but the northern extent of stronger heating is the primary question. With the cold front taking on a more north-south orientation in this region, 35-45 kts of effective shear across the boundary could promote a more discrete storm mode. Should sufficient destabilization occur, isolated large hail and damaging winds would be possible. Poor mid-level lapse rates should tend to limit overall intensity of most storms. ...Portions of Tennessee/lower Ohio Valleys... As with areas farther west, there will be some potential for precipitation and cloud cover Monday morning, especially with northern extent. South of the surface boundary, at least broken cloud cover should allow for sufficient heating to promote around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. 40-50 kts of shear parallel to the boundary will allow some potential for storm organization. Damaging winds would likely be the primary threat, though isolated large hail is possible in the strongest, discrete storms. As the trough moves east and the surface boundary slowly lifts northward into Tuesday morning, some stronger elevated activity could move into southern Illinois/Indiana during the overnight. There is spread in how far north the boundary moves and the degree of elevated buoyancy, but some potential for small to marginally severe hail and an isolated damaging wind gust will exist. ..Wendt.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE OZARKS INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys on Monday. ...Synopsis... A broad, positively-tilted trough will slowly progress eastward through the central Plains and into the Ozarks/lower Ohio Valley vicinity by Tuesday morning. A belt of moderate mid-level flow will stretch from near the Red River into Tennessee, Kentucky, and southern Illinois/Indiana. Given the nature of the trough, a rather weak surface pattern is expected. However, a cold front is expected to reside from the southern Great Lakes region into the Ozarks with a weak surface low in the Mid-South making some northward progress during the period. To the south of the front, a moist airmass should remain in place with mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints. ...Ozarks Vicinity... Cloud cover and precipitation will likely be present Monday morning. The degree of destabilization during the afternoon will be uncertain. Model guidance has some confidence in heating into parts of central Arkansas, but the northern extent of stronger heating is the primary question. With the cold front taking on a more north-south orientation in this region, 35-45 kts of effective shear across the boundary could promote a more discrete storm mode. Should sufficient destabilization occur, isolated large hail and damaging winds would be possible. Poor mid-level lapse rates should tend to limit overall intensity of most storms. ...Portions of Tennessee/lower Ohio Valleys... As with areas farther west, there will be some potential for precipitation and cloud cover Monday morning, especially with northern extent. South of the surface boundary, at least broken cloud cover should allow for sufficient heating to promote around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. 40-50 kts of shear parallel to the boundary will allow some potential for storm organization. Damaging winds would likely be the primary threat, though isolated large hail is possible in the strongest, discrete storms. As the trough moves east and the surface boundary slowly lifts northward into Tuesday morning, some stronger elevated activity could move into southern Illinois/Indiana during the overnight. There is spread in how far north the boundary moves and the degree of elevated buoyancy, but some potential for small to marginally severe hail and an isolated damaging wind gust will exist. ..Wendt.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE OZARKS INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys on Monday. ...Synopsis... A broad, positively-tilted trough will slowly progress eastward through the central Plains and into the Ozarks/lower Ohio Valley vicinity by Tuesday morning. A belt of moderate mid-level flow will stretch from near the Red River into Tennessee, Kentucky, and southern Illinois/Indiana. Given the nature of the trough, a rather weak surface pattern is expected. However, a cold front is expected to reside from the southern Great Lakes region into the Ozarks with a weak surface low in the Mid-South making some northward progress during the period. To the south of the front, a moist airmass should remain in place with mid 60s to low 70s F dewpoints. ...Ozarks Vicinity... Cloud cover and precipitation will likely be present Monday morning. The degree of destabilization during the afternoon will be uncertain. Model guidance has some confidence in heating into parts of central Arkansas, but the northern extent of stronger heating is the primary question. With the cold front taking on a more north-south orientation in this region, 35-45 kts of effective shear across the boundary could promote a more discrete storm mode. Should sufficient destabilization occur, isolated large hail and damaging winds would be possible. Poor mid-level lapse rates should tend to limit overall intensity of most storms. ...Portions of Tennessee/lower Ohio Valleys... As with areas farther west, there will be some potential for precipitation and cloud cover Monday morning, especially with northern extent. South of the surface boundary, at least broken cloud cover should allow for sufficient heating to promote around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE by the afternoon. 40-50 kts of shear parallel to the boundary will allow some potential for storm organization. Damaging winds would likely be the primary threat, though isolated large hail is possible in the strongest, discrete storms. As the trough moves east and the surface boundary slowly lifts northward into Tuesday morning, some stronger elevated activity could move into southern Illinois/Indiana during the overnight. There is spread in how far north the boundary moves and the degree of elevated buoyancy, but some potential for small to marginally severe hail and an isolated damaging wind gust will exist. ..Wendt.. 09/22/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 221700Z - 231200Z No changes. Fire weather concerns remain low. ..Bentley.. 09/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0150 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/ ...Synopsis... No fire weather concerns are expected across the CONUS today. A cool post-frontal air mass is expected across the Plains with potential for widespread precipitation. Dry conditions will continue across the southwestern US. As the upper low moves eastward across the Rockies, winds will also decrease with cooler temperatures expected across the region which will aid in keeping fire weather concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more