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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across portions of central Texas. ...Synopsis... The upper low/trough over the Southwest and northwest Mexico will minutely shift east on Friday. As this occurs, modestly enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains. Boundary layer moisture will remain scant across TX due to prior cold frontal intrusion into the Gulf of Mexico. However, a few elevated thunderstorms will be possible across central TX. Increasing midlevel moisture coupled with steep midlevel lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will support meager elevated instability. Subtle large-scale ascent associated with the eastward creeping upper trough may be sufficient to aid in isolated lightning flashes. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 12/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across portions of central Texas. ...Synopsis... The upper low/trough over the Southwest and northwest Mexico will minutely shift east on Friday. As this occurs, modestly enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains. Boundary layer moisture will remain scant across TX due to prior cold frontal intrusion into the Gulf of Mexico. However, a few elevated thunderstorms will be possible across central TX. Increasing midlevel moisture coupled with steep midlevel lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will support meager elevated instability. Subtle large-scale ascent associated with the eastward creeping upper trough may be sufficient to aid in isolated lightning flashes. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 12/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across portions of central Texas. ...Synopsis... The upper low/trough over the Southwest and northwest Mexico will minutely shift east on Friday. As this occurs, modestly enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains. Boundary layer moisture will remain scant across TX due to prior cold frontal intrusion into the Gulf of Mexico. However, a few elevated thunderstorms will be possible across central TX. Increasing midlevel moisture coupled with steep midlevel lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will support meager elevated instability. Subtle large-scale ascent associated with the eastward creeping upper trough may be sufficient to aid in isolated lightning flashes. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 12/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across portions of central Texas. ...Synopsis... The upper low/trough over the Southwest and northwest Mexico will minutely shift east on Friday. As this occurs, modestly enhanced mid/upper southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains. Boundary layer moisture will remain scant across TX due to prior cold frontal intrusion into the Gulf of Mexico. However, a few elevated thunderstorms will be possible across central TX. Increasing midlevel moisture coupled with steep midlevel lapse rates and cool temperatures aloft will support meager elevated instability. Subtle large-scale ascent associated with the eastward creeping upper trough may be sufficient to aid in isolated lightning flashes. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 12/04/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. In the vicinity of a passing cold front, marginally dry/breezy conditions are possible across portions of the Southeast during the afternoon. However, a limited spatial and temporal overlap of the dry/breezy conditions should generally limit fire-weather concerns here. ..Weinman.. 12/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will continue to advance eastward across the Northeast on D2 - Thursday as cold upstream air infiltrates the eastern half of the CONUS. Across the western US, a weak midlevel trough will remain over the Southwest with upstream surface high pressure encouraging locally dry/breezy offshore flow across southern CA. Some locally Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, though areas will remain isolated with sparse availability of fuels. This will preclude the need to add areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. In the vicinity of a passing cold front, marginally dry/breezy conditions are possible across portions of the Southeast during the afternoon. However, a limited spatial and temporal overlap of the dry/breezy conditions should generally limit fire-weather concerns here. ..Weinman.. 12/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will continue to advance eastward across the Northeast on D2 - Thursday as cold upstream air infiltrates the eastern half of the CONUS. Across the western US, a weak midlevel trough will remain over the Southwest with upstream surface high pressure encouraging locally dry/breezy offshore flow across southern CA. Some locally Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, though areas will remain isolated with sparse availability of fuels. This will preclude the need to add areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. In the vicinity of a passing cold front, marginally dry/breezy conditions are possible across portions of the Southeast during the afternoon. However, a limited spatial and temporal overlap of the dry/breezy conditions should generally limit fire-weather concerns here. ..Weinman.. 12/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will continue to advance eastward across the Northeast on D2 - Thursday as cold upstream air infiltrates the eastern half of the CONUS. Across the western US, a weak midlevel trough will remain over the Southwest with upstream surface high pressure encouraging locally dry/breezy offshore flow across southern CA. Some locally Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, though areas will remain isolated with sparse availability of fuels. This will preclude the need to add areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. In the vicinity of a passing cold front, marginally dry/breezy conditions are possible across portions of the Southeast during the afternoon. However, a limited spatial and temporal overlap of the dry/breezy conditions should generally limit fire-weather concerns here. ..Weinman.. 12/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will continue to advance eastward across the Northeast on D2 - Thursday as cold upstream air infiltrates the eastern half of the CONUS. Across the western US, a weak midlevel trough will remain over the Southwest with upstream surface high pressure encouraging locally dry/breezy offshore flow across southern CA. Some locally Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, though areas will remain isolated with sparse availability of fuels. This will preclude the need to add areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. In the vicinity of a passing cold front, marginally dry/breezy conditions are possible across portions of the Southeast during the afternoon. However, a limited spatial and temporal overlap of the dry/breezy conditions should generally limit fire-weather concerns here. ..Weinman.. 12/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will continue to advance eastward across the Northeast on D2 - Thursday as cold upstream air infiltrates the eastern half of the CONUS. Across the western US, a weak midlevel trough will remain over the Southwest with upstream surface high pressure encouraging locally dry/breezy offshore flow across southern CA. Some locally Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, though areas will remain isolated with sparse availability of fuels. This will preclude the need to add areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. In the vicinity of a passing cold front, marginally dry/breezy conditions are possible across portions of the Southeast during the afternoon. However, a limited spatial and temporal overlap of the dry/breezy conditions should generally limit fire-weather concerns here. ..Weinman.. 12/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will continue to advance eastward across the Northeast on D2 - Thursday as cold upstream air infiltrates the eastern half of the CONUS. Across the western US, a weak midlevel trough will remain over the Southwest with upstream surface high pressure encouraging locally dry/breezy offshore flow across southern CA. Some locally Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, though areas will remain isolated with sparse availability of fuels. This will preclude the need to add areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. In the vicinity of a passing cold front, marginally dry/breezy conditions are possible across portions of the Southeast during the afternoon. However, a limited spatial and temporal overlap of the dry/breezy conditions should generally limit fire-weather concerns here. ..Weinman.. 12/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will continue to advance eastward across the Northeast on D2 - Thursday as cold upstream air infiltrates the eastern half of the CONUS. Across the western US, a weak midlevel trough will remain over the Southwest with upstream surface high pressure encouraging locally dry/breezy offshore flow across southern CA. Some locally Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, though areas will remain isolated with sparse availability of fuels. This will preclude the need to add areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across parts of south Texas and the central Gulf Coast. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will persist across the eastern CONUS on Thursday. Meanwhile, an upper shortwave trough over the Southwest will deepen and modestly progress eastward, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow across the southern Rockies vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from southern AL southwestward to the western Gulf of Mexico/far south TX. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible in a warm advection regime in the vicinity of the front, mainly across southeast LA and near the central Gulf coast. As the front shifts east/southeast through the day, convection will largely move offshore by afternoon. Modest instability and poor low and midlevel lapse rates will preclude severe potential. A couple of lightning flashes are possible during the last 2-4 hours of the forecast period across southern NM and far west TX. Increasing large-scale ascent will impinge on the area as the Southwest shortwave trough approaches the region early Friday morning. Steepening midlevel lapse rates and cooling temperatures aloft will support very minor MUCAPE (generally less than 150-200 J/kg). Midlevel moistening will occur in tandem, and a couple of lightning flashes are possible with elevated convection. ..Leitman.. 12/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across parts of south Texas and the central Gulf Coast. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will persist across the eastern CONUS on Thursday. Meanwhile, an upper shortwave trough over the Southwest will deepen and modestly progress eastward, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow across the southern Rockies vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from southern AL southwestward to the western Gulf of Mexico/far south TX. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible in a warm advection regime in the vicinity of the front, mainly across southeast LA and near the central Gulf coast. As the front shifts east/southeast through the day, convection will largely move offshore by afternoon. Modest instability and poor low and midlevel lapse rates will preclude severe potential. A couple of lightning flashes are possible during the last 2-4 hours of the forecast period across southern NM and far west TX. Increasing large-scale ascent will impinge on the area as the Southwest shortwave trough approaches the region early Friday morning. Steepening midlevel lapse rates and cooling temperatures aloft will support very minor MUCAPE (generally less than 150-200 J/kg). Midlevel moistening will occur in tandem, and a couple of lightning flashes are possible with elevated convection. ..Leitman.. 12/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across parts of south Texas and the central Gulf Coast. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will persist across the eastern CONUS on Thursday. Meanwhile, an upper shortwave trough over the Southwest will deepen and modestly progress eastward, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow across the southern Rockies vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from southern AL southwestward to the western Gulf of Mexico/far south TX. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible in a warm advection regime in the vicinity of the front, mainly across southeast LA and near the central Gulf coast. As the front shifts east/southeast through the day, convection will largely move offshore by afternoon. Modest instability and poor low and midlevel lapse rates will preclude severe potential. A couple of lightning flashes are possible during the last 2-4 hours of the forecast period across southern NM and far west TX. Increasing large-scale ascent will impinge on the area as the Southwest shortwave trough approaches the region early Friday morning. Steepening midlevel lapse rates and cooling temperatures aloft will support very minor MUCAPE (generally less than 150-200 J/kg). Midlevel moistening will occur in tandem, and a couple of lightning flashes are possible with elevated convection. ..Leitman.. 12/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across parts of south Texas and the central Gulf Coast. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will persist across the eastern CONUS on Thursday. Meanwhile, an upper shortwave trough over the Southwest will deepen and modestly progress eastward, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow across the southern Rockies vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from southern AL southwestward to the western Gulf of Mexico/far south TX. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible in a warm advection regime in the vicinity of the front, mainly across southeast LA and near the central Gulf coast. As the front shifts east/southeast through the day, convection will largely move offshore by afternoon. Modest instability and poor low and midlevel lapse rates will preclude severe potential. A couple of lightning flashes are possible during the last 2-4 hours of the forecast period across southern NM and far west TX. Increasing large-scale ascent will impinge on the area as the Southwest shortwave trough approaches the region early Friday morning. Steepening midlevel lapse rates and cooling temperatures aloft will support very minor MUCAPE (generally less than 150-200 J/kg). Midlevel moistening will occur in tandem, and a couple of lightning flashes are possible with elevated convection. ..Leitman.. 12/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across parts of south Texas and the central Gulf Coast. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will persist across the eastern CONUS on Thursday. Meanwhile, an upper shortwave trough over the Southwest will deepen and modestly progress eastward, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow across the southern Rockies vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from southern AL southwestward to the western Gulf of Mexico/far south TX. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible in a warm advection regime in the vicinity of the front, mainly across southeast LA and near the central Gulf coast. As the front shifts east/southeast through the day, convection will largely move offshore by afternoon. Modest instability and poor low and midlevel lapse rates will preclude severe potential. A couple of lightning flashes are possible during the last 2-4 hours of the forecast period across southern NM and far west TX. Increasing large-scale ascent will impinge on the area as the Southwest shortwave trough approaches the region early Friday morning. Steepening midlevel lapse rates and cooling temperatures aloft will support very minor MUCAPE (generally less than 150-200 J/kg). Midlevel moistening will occur in tandem, and a couple of lightning flashes are possible with elevated convection. ..Leitman.. 12/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across parts of south Texas and the central Gulf Coast. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will persist across the eastern CONUS on Thursday. Meanwhile, an upper shortwave trough over the Southwest will deepen and modestly progress eastward, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow across the southern Rockies vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from southern AL southwestward to the western Gulf of Mexico/far south TX. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible in a warm advection regime in the vicinity of the front, mainly across southeast LA and near the central Gulf coast. As the front shifts east/southeast through the day, convection will largely move offshore by afternoon. Modest instability and poor low and midlevel lapse rates will preclude severe potential. A couple of lightning flashes are possible during the last 2-4 hours of the forecast period across southern NM and far west TX. Increasing large-scale ascent will impinge on the area as the Southwest shortwave trough approaches the region early Friday morning. Steepening midlevel lapse rates and cooling temperatures aloft will support very minor MUCAPE (generally less than 150-200 J/kg). Midlevel moistening will occur in tandem, and a couple of lightning flashes are possible with elevated convection. ..Leitman.. 12/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1117 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across parts of south Texas and the central Gulf Coast. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A broad upper trough will persist across the eastern CONUS on Thursday. Meanwhile, an upper shortwave trough over the Southwest will deepen and modestly progress eastward, bringing enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow across the southern Rockies vicinity. At the surface, a cold front will be oriented from southern AL southwestward to the western Gulf of Mexico/far south TX. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible in a warm advection regime in the vicinity of the front, mainly across southeast LA and near the central Gulf coast. As the front shifts east/southeast through the day, convection will largely move offshore by afternoon. Modest instability and poor low and midlevel lapse rates will preclude severe potential. A couple of lightning flashes are possible during the last 2-4 hours of the forecast period across southern NM and far west TX. Increasing large-scale ascent will impinge on the area as the Southwest shortwave trough approaches the region early Friday morning. Steepening midlevel lapse rates and cooling temperatures aloft will support very minor MUCAPE (generally less than 150-200 J/kg). Midlevel moistening will occur in tandem, and a couple of lightning flashes are possible with elevated convection. ..Leitman.. 12/04/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were made with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 12/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will deepen across the eastern US as a cold front drops southward from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes/northeast bringing widespread rain/snowfall. Strong northwesterly flow will be possible behind the passing cold front across the northern Plains. However, cooler temperatures along with moist fuels will keep fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1036 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 041700Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were made with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 12/04/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will deepen across the eastern US as a cold front drops southward from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes/northeast bringing widespread rain/snowfall. Strong northwesterly flow will be possible behind the passing cold front across the northern Plains. However, cooler temperatures along with moist fuels will keep fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more