Aggregator

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across parts of south Texas and the central Gulf Coast. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A strong cold front is forecast to extend from northern GA into southeast LA and the western Gulf of Mexico Thursday morning. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across southeast LA and perhaps along the immediate central Gulf Coast during the day. The southward push of the cold front across south TX and the western Gulf is faster in the latest suite of forecast guidance. As a result, thunderstorm chances appear lower across TX through the period, and the general thunderstorm delineation has been trimmed quite a bit across TX. ..Leitman.. 12/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across parts of south Texas and the central Gulf Coast. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... A strong cold front is forecast to extend from northern GA into southeast LA and the western Gulf of Mexico Thursday morning. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across southeast LA and perhaps along the immediate central Gulf Coast during the day. The southward push of the cold front across south TX and the western Gulf is faster in the latest suite of forecast guidance. As a result, thunderstorm chances appear lower across TX through the period, and the general thunderstorm delineation has been trimmed quite a bit across TX. ..Leitman.. 12/03/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 12/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1200 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly amplify while impinging on the East Coast tomorrow (Wednesday), resulting in a surface cold front sweeping across the eastern U.S. as high pressure builds across the Plains states. Modestly dry and breezy conditions may precede the surface cold front over the Southeast, while some dry downslope flow occurs over the central High Plains by afternoon peak heating. Given modestly receptive fuels in both locales, the marginally dry and breezy conditions suggest that wildfire-spread potential should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 12/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1200 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly amplify while impinging on the East Coast tomorrow (Wednesday), resulting in a surface cold front sweeping across the eastern U.S. as high pressure builds across the Plains states. Modestly dry and breezy conditions may precede the surface cold front over the Southeast, while some dry downslope flow occurs over the central High Plains by afternoon peak heating. Given modestly receptive fuels in both locales, the marginally dry and breezy conditions suggest that wildfire-spread potential should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 12/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1200 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly amplify while impinging on the East Coast tomorrow (Wednesday), resulting in a surface cold front sweeping across the eastern U.S. as high pressure builds across the Plains states. Modestly dry and breezy conditions may precede the surface cold front over the Southeast, while some dry downslope flow occurs over the central High Plains by afternoon peak heating. Given modestly receptive fuels in both locales, the marginally dry and breezy conditions suggest that wildfire-spread potential should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 12/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1200 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly amplify while impinging on the East Coast tomorrow (Wednesday), resulting in a surface cold front sweeping across the eastern U.S. as high pressure builds across the Plains states. Modestly dry and breezy conditions may precede the surface cold front over the Southeast, while some dry downslope flow occurs over the central High Plains by afternoon peak heating. Given modestly receptive fuels in both locales, the marginally dry and breezy conditions suggest that wildfire-spread potential should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 12/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1200 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly amplify while impinging on the East Coast tomorrow (Wednesday), resulting in a surface cold front sweeping across the eastern U.S. as high pressure builds across the Plains states. Modestly dry and breezy conditions may precede the surface cold front over the Southeast, while some dry downslope flow occurs over the central High Plains by afternoon peak heating. Given modestly receptive fuels in both locales, the marginally dry and breezy conditions suggest that wildfire-spread potential should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 12/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1200 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly amplify while impinging on the East Coast tomorrow (Wednesday), resulting in a surface cold front sweeping across the eastern U.S. as high pressure builds across the Plains states. Modestly dry and breezy conditions may precede the surface cold front over the Southeast, while some dry downslope flow occurs over the central High Plains by afternoon peak heating. Given modestly receptive fuels in both locales, the marginally dry and breezy conditions suggest that wildfire-spread potential should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 12/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1200 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly amplify while impinging on the East Coast tomorrow (Wednesday), resulting in a surface cold front sweeping across the eastern U.S. as high pressure builds across the Plains states. Modestly dry and breezy conditions may precede the surface cold front over the Southeast, while some dry downslope flow occurs over the central High Plains by afternoon peak heating. Given modestly receptive fuels in both locales, the marginally dry and breezy conditions suggest that wildfire-spread potential should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 12/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1200 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will rapidly amplify while impinging on the East Coast tomorrow (Wednesday), resulting in a surface cold front sweeping across the eastern U.S. as high pressure builds across the Plains states. Modestly dry and breezy conditions may precede the surface cold front over the Southeast, while some dry downslope flow occurs over the central High Plains by afternoon peak heating. Given modestly receptive fuels in both locales, the marginally dry and breezy conditions suggest that wildfire-spread potential should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from East Texas into the ArkLaMiss on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over south-central Canada will dig south and east across much of the Great Lakes and Midwest vicinity on Wednesday. At the same time, a trough over the Southwest will become increasingly cut-off as shortwave ridging develops over the northern Rockies and southern Plains. Stronger deep-layer flow will generally remain confined to the Great Lakes/Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast as a strong jet streak enters the base of the deepening upper trough across those regions. However, moderately enhanced southern stream westerly mid/upper flow will overspread the Southeast. A surface low over Ontario and the Great Lakes will shift east toward the Northeast, bringing a cold front south and east across much of the eastern half of the CONUS by Thursday morning. ...Southeast TX into LA... Ahead of the synoptic cold front, a weak surface low is forecast to develop northeast across southeast TX and the Lower MS Valley. A warm front will lift north during the morning and extend across portions of the Upper TX Coast and southern LA. This will allow for mid to upper 60s F dewpoints to spread north on increasing southerly low-level flow. At the same time, a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet will develop over the region. This will result in vertically veering wind profiles. Enlarged, looping hodographs are evident in forecast soundings, with 0-1 km SRH near 150-200 m2/s2 by early evening. Effective shear magnitudes also are forecast to top out around 30-35 kt. While this typically would support organized convection, thermodynamic profiles suggest that surface based storms may be mostly confined to very near the coast, with increasing inhibition with northward extent. Furthermore, surface heating will be limited, and MLCAPE is expected to remain at or below 500 J/kg across most of the area. While a strong storm or two is possible near the coast, overall severe potential appears limited. ..Leitman.. 12/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from East Texas into the ArkLaMiss on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over south-central Canada will dig south and east across much of the Great Lakes and Midwest vicinity on Wednesday. At the same time, a trough over the Southwest will become increasingly cut-off as shortwave ridging develops over the northern Rockies and southern Plains. Stronger deep-layer flow will generally remain confined to the Great Lakes/Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast as a strong jet streak enters the base of the deepening upper trough across those regions. However, moderately enhanced southern stream westerly mid/upper flow will overspread the Southeast. A surface low over Ontario and the Great Lakes will shift east toward the Northeast, bringing a cold front south and east across much of the eastern half of the CONUS by Thursday morning. ...Southeast TX into LA... Ahead of the synoptic cold front, a weak surface low is forecast to develop northeast across southeast TX and the Lower MS Valley. A warm front will lift north during the morning and extend across portions of the Upper TX Coast and southern LA. This will allow for mid to upper 60s F dewpoints to spread north on increasing southerly low-level flow. At the same time, a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet will develop over the region. This will result in vertically veering wind profiles. Enlarged, looping hodographs are evident in forecast soundings, with 0-1 km SRH near 150-200 m2/s2 by early evening. Effective shear magnitudes also are forecast to top out around 30-35 kt. While this typically would support organized convection, thermodynamic profiles suggest that surface based storms may be mostly confined to very near the coast, with increasing inhibition with northward extent. Furthermore, surface heating will be limited, and MLCAPE is expected to remain at or below 500 J/kg across most of the area. While a strong storm or two is possible near the coast, overall severe potential appears limited. ..Leitman.. 12/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from East Texas into the ArkLaMiss on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over south-central Canada will dig south and east across much of the Great Lakes and Midwest vicinity on Wednesday. At the same time, a trough over the Southwest will become increasingly cut-off as shortwave ridging develops over the northern Rockies and southern Plains. Stronger deep-layer flow will generally remain confined to the Great Lakes/Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast as a strong jet streak enters the base of the deepening upper trough across those regions. However, moderately enhanced southern stream westerly mid/upper flow will overspread the Southeast. A surface low over Ontario and the Great Lakes will shift east toward the Northeast, bringing a cold front south and east across much of the eastern half of the CONUS by Thursday morning. ...Southeast TX into LA... Ahead of the synoptic cold front, a weak surface low is forecast to develop northeast across southeast TX and the Lower MS Valley. A warm front will lift north during the morning and extend across portions of the Upper TX Coast and southern LA. This will allow for mid to upper 60s F dewpoints to spread north on increasing southerly low-level flow. At the same time, a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet will develop over the region. This will result in vertically veering wind profiles. Enlarged, looping hodographs are evident in forecast soundings, with 0-1 km SRH near 150-200 m2/s2 by early evening. Effective shear magnitudes also are forecast to top out around 30-35 kt. While this typically would support organized convection, thermodynamic profiles suggest that surface based storms may be mostly confined to very near the coast, with increasing inhibition with northward extent. Furthermore, surface heating will be limited, and MLCAPE is expected to remain at or below 500 J/kg across most of the area. While a strong storm or two is possible near the coast, overall severe potential appears limited. ..Leitman.. 12/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from East Texas into the ArkLaMiss on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over south-central Canada will dig south and east across much of the Great Lakes and Midwest vicinity on Wednesday. At the same time, a trough over the Southwest will become increasingly cut-off as shortwave ridging develops over the northern Rockies and southern Plains. Stronger deep-layer flow will generally remain confined to the Great Lakes/Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast as a strong jet streak enters the base of the deepening upper trough across those regions. However, moderately enhanced southern stream westerly mid/upper flow will overspread the Southeast. A surface low over Ontario and the Great Lakes will shift east toward the Northeast, bringing a cold front south and east across much of the eastern half of the CONUS by Thursday morning. ...Southeast TX into LA... Ahead of the synoptic cold front, a weak surface low is forecast to develop northeast across southeast TX and the Lower MS Valley. A warm front will lift north during the morning and extend across portions of the Upper TX Coast and southern LA. This will allow for mid to upper 60s F dewpoints to spread north on increasing southerly low-level flow. At the same time, a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet will develop over the region. This will result in vertically veering wind profiles. Enlarged, looping hodographs are evident in forecast soundings, with 0-1 km SRH near 150-200 m2/s2 by early evening. Effective shear magnitudes also are forecast to top out around 30-35 kt. While this typically would support organized convection, thermodynamic profiles suggest that surface based storms may be mostly confined to very near the coast, with increasing inhibition with northward extent. Furthermore, surface heating will be limited, and MLCAPE is expected to remain at or below 500 J/kg across most of the area. While a strong storm or two is possible near the coast, overall severe potential appears limited. ..Leitman.. 12/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from East Texas into the ArkLaMiss on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over south-central Canada will dig south and east across much of the Great Lakes and Midwest vicinity on Wednesday. At the same time, a trough over the Southwest will become increasingly cut-off as shortwave ridging develops over the northern Rockies and southern Plains. Stronger deep-layer flow will generally remain confined to the Great Lakes/Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast as a strong jet streak enters the base of the deepening upper trough across those regions. However, moderately enhanced southern stream westerly mid/upper flow will overspread the Southeast. A surface low over Ontario and the Great Lakes will shift east toward the Northeast, bringing a cold front south and east across much of the eastern half of the CONUS by Thursday morning. ...Southeast TX into LA... Ahead of the synoptic cold front, a weak surface low is forecast to develop northeast across southeast TX and the Lower MS Valley. A warm front will lift north during the morning and extend across portions of the Upper TX Coast and southern LA. This will allow for mid to upper 60s F dewpoints to spread north on increasing southerly low-level flow. At the same time, a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet will develop over the region. This will result in vertically veering wind profiles. Enlarged, looping hodographs are evident in forecast soundings, with 0-1 km SRH near 150-200 m2/s2 by early evening. Effective shear magnitudes also are forecast to top out around 30-35 kt. While this typically would support organized convection, thermodynamic profiles suggest that surface based storms may be mostly confined to very near the coast, with increasing inhibition with northward extent. Furthermore, surface heating will be limited, and MLCAPE is expected to remain at or below 500 J/kg across most of the area. While a strong storm or two is possible near the coast, overall severe potential appears limited. ..Leitman.. 12/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from East Texas into the ArkLaMiss on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over south-central Canada will dig south and east across much of the Great Lakes and Midwest vicinity on Wednesday. At the same time, a trough over the Southwest will become increasingly cut-off as shortwave ridging develops over the northern Rockies and southern Plains. Stronger deep-layer flow will generally remain confined to the Great Lakes/Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast as a strong jet streak enters the base of the deepening upper trough across those regions. However, moderately enhanced southern stream westerly mid/upper flow will overspread the Southeast. A surface low over Ontario and the Great Lakes will shift east toward the Northeast, bringing a cold front south and east across much of the eastern half of the CONUS by Thursday morning. ...Southeast TX into LA... Ahead of the synoptic cold front, a weak surface low is forecast to develop northeast across southeast TX and the Lower MS Valley. A warm front will lift north during the morning and extend across portions of the Upper TX Coast and southern LA. This will allow for mid to upper 60s F dewpoints to spread north on increasing southerly low-level flow. At the same time, a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet will develop over the region. This will result in vertically veering wind profiles. Enlarged, looping hodographs are evident in forecast soundings, with 0-1 km SRH near 150-200 m2/s2 by early evening. Effective shear magnitudes also are forecast to top out around 30-35 kt. While this typically would support organized convection, thermodynamic profiles suggest that surface based storms may be mostly confined to very near the coast, with increasing inhibition with northward extent. Furthermore, surface heating will be limited, and MLCAPE is expected to remain at or below 500 J/kg across most of the area. While a strong storm or two is possible near the coast, overall severe potential appears limited. ..Leitman.. 12/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from East Texas into the ArkLaMiss on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over south-central Canada will dig south and east across much of the Great Lakes and Midwest vicinity on Wednesday. At the same time, a trough over the Southwest will become increasingly cut-off as shortwave ridging develops over the northern Rockies and southern Plains. Stronger deep-layer flow will generally remain confined to the Great Lakes/Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast as a strong jet streak enters the base of the deepening upper trough across those regions. However, moderately enhanced southern stream westerly mid/upper flow will overspread the Southeast. A surface low over Ontario and the Great Lakes will shift east toward the Northeast, bringing a cold front south and east across much of the eastern half of the CONUS by Thursday morning. ...Southeast TX into LA... Ahead of the synoptic cold front, a weak surface low is forecast to develop northeast across southeast TX and the Lower MS Valley. A warm front will lift north during the morning and extend across portions of the Upper TX Coast and southern LA. This will allow for mid to upper 60s F dewpoints to spread north on increasing southerly low-level flow. At the same time, a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet will develop over the region. This will result in vertically veering wind profiles. Enlarged, looping hodographs are evident in forecast soundings, with 0-1 km SRH near 150-200 m2/s2 by early evening. Effective shear magnitudes also are forecast to top out around 30-35 kt. While this typically would support organized convection, thermodynamic profiles suggest that surface based storms may be mostly confined to very near the coast, with increasing inhibition with northward extent. Furthermore, surface heating will be limited, and MLCAPE is expected to remain at or below 500 J/kg across most of the area. While a strong storm or two is possible near the coast, overall severe potential appears limited. ..Leitman.. 12/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from East Texas into the ArkLaMiss on Wednesday. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough over south-central Canada will dig south and east across much of the Great Lakes and Midwest vicinity on Wednesday. At the same time, a trough over the Southwest will become increasingly cut-off as shortwave ridging develops over the northern Rockies and southern Plains. Stronger deep-layer flow will generally remain confined to the Great Lakes/Midwest to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast as a strong jet streak enters the base of the deepening upper trough across those regions. However, moderately enhanced southern stream westerly mid/upper flow will overspread the Southeast. A surface low over Ontario and the Great Lakes will shift east toward the Northeast, bringing a cold front south and east across much of the eastern half of the CONUS by Thursday morning. ...Southeast TX into LA... Ahead of the synoptic cold front, a weak surface low is forecast to develop northeast across southeast TX and the Lower MS Valley. A warm front will lift north during the morning and extend across portions of the Upper TX Coast and southern LA. This will allow for mid to upper 60s F dewpoints to spread north on increasing southerly low-level flow. At the same time, a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet will develop over the region. This will result in vertically veering wind profiles. Enlarged, looping hodographs are evident in forecast soundings, with 0-1 km SRH near 150-200 m2/s2 by early evening. Effective shear magnitudes also are forecast to top out around 30-35 kt. While this typically would support organized convection, thermodynamic profiles suggest that surface based storms may be mostly confined to very near the coast, with increasing inhibition with northward extent. Furthermore, surface heating will be limited, and MLCAPE is expected to remain at or below 500 J/kg across most of the area. While a strong storm or two is possible near the coast, overall severe potential appears limited. ..Leitman.. 12/03/2024 Read more

Drought may prevent the two reenactments of Washington and the Continental Army crossing the Delaware River on Christmas night in 1776 due to the low level of the river. The first reenactment was scheduled for Sunday, December 8, and the second on Christmas Day. The Coast Guard will determine whether the event can take place. The Durham boat could get stuck in the mud, and the water must be high enough for dock installation. PhillyBurbs.com (Philadelphia, Pa.), Dec 3, 2024

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were made with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 12/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1200 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify over the northern Mississippi Valley while another trough ejects into the Atlantic today. As a result, surface high pressure will overspread the Southeast as a surface lee trough and accompanying cold front sweeps across the Plains states. Cool and/or moist surface conditions will limit widespread significant wildfire growth potential over most locales. Dry downslope flow is possible across portions of the central and northern High Plains behind the cold front, with dry northwesterly flow also likely during the afternoon over the southern Florida Peninsula. Beyond the modest dry and breezy conditions, fuels across the central/northern High Plains and southern Florida Peninsula are marginally receptive to fire spread, suggesting localized wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more