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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were made with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 12/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1200 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify over the northern Mississippi Valley while another trough ejects into the Atlantic today. As a result, surface high pressure will overspread the Southeast as a surface lee trough and accompanying cold front sweeps across the Plains states. Cool and/or moist surface conditions will limit widespread significant wildfire growth potential over most locales. Dry downslope flow is possible across portions of the central and northern High Plains behind the cold front, with dry northwesterly flow also likely during the afternoon over the southern Florida Peninsula. Beyond the modest dry and breezy conditions, fuels across the central/northern High Plains and southern Florida Peninsula are marginally receptive to fire spread, suggesting localized wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were made with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 12/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1200 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify over the northern Mississippi Valley while another trough ejects into the Atlantic today. As a result, surface high pressure will overspread the Southeast as a surface lee trough and accompanying cold front sweeps across the Plains states. Cool and/or moist surface conditions will limit widespread significant wildfire growth potential over most locales. Dry downslope flow is possible across portions of the central and northern High Plains behind the cold front, with dry northwesterly flow also likely during the afternoon over the southern Florida Peninsula. Beyond the modest dry and breezy conditions, fuels across the central/northern High Plains and southern Florida Peninsula are marginally receptive to fire spread, suggesting localized wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were made with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 12/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1200 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify over the northern Mississippi Valley while another trough ejects into the Atlantic today. As a result, surface high pressure will overspread the Southeast as a surface lee trough and accompanying cold front sweeps across the Plains states. Cool and/or moist surface conditions will limit widespread significant wildfire growth potential over most locales. Dry downslope flow is possible across portions of the central and northern High Plains behind the cold front, with dry northwesterly flow also likely during the afternoon over the southern Florida Peninsula. Beyond the modest dry and breezy conditions, fuels across the central/northern High Plains and southern Florida Peninsula are marginally receptive to fire spread, suggesting localized wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were made with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 12/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1200 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify over the northern Mississippi Valley while another trough ejects into the Atlantic today. As a result, surface high pressure will overspread the Southeast as a surface lee trough and accompanying cold front sweeps across the Plains states. Cool and/or moist surface conditions will limit widespread significant wildfire growth potential over most locales. Dry downslope flow is possible across portions of the central and northern High Plains behind the cold front, with dry northwesterly flow also likely during the afternoon over the southern Florida Peninsula. Beyond the modest dry and breezy conditions, fuels across the central/northern High Plains and southern Florida Peninsula are marginally receptive to fire spread, suggesting localized wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were made with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 12/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1200 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify over the northern Mississippi Valley while another trough ejects into the Atlantic today. As a result, surface high pressure will overspread the Southeast as a surface lee trough and accompanying cold front sweeps across the Plains states. Cool and/or moist surface conditions will limit widespread significant wildfire growth potential over most locales. Dry downslope flow is possible across portions of the central and northern High Plains behind the cold front, with dry northwesterly flow also likely during the afternoon over the southern Florida Peninsula. Beyond the modest dry and breezy conditions, fuels across the central/northern High Plains and southern Florida Peninsula are marginally receptive to fire spread, suggesting localized wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1034 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes were made with this update. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 12/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1200 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify over the northern Mississippi Valley while another trough ejects into the Atlantic today. As a result, surface high pressure will overspread the Southeast as a surface lee trough and accompanying cold front sweeps across the Plains states. Cool and/or moist surface conditions will limit widespread significant wildfire growth potential over most locales. Dry downslope flow is possible across portions of the central and northern High Plains behind the cold front, with dry northwesterly flow also likely during the afternoon over the southern Florida Peninsula. Beyond the modest dry and breezy conditions, fuels across the central/northern High Plains and southern Florida Peninsula are marginally receptive to fire spread, suggesting localized wildfire-spread potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible through tonight along the lower/middle Texas Coast into central Texas, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough over the eastern CONUS will be reinforced by an amplifying and southeastward-digging shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairie provinces toward the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through tonight. Surface high pressure across the Southeast and cool/stable low-level trajectories across most of the Gulf of Mexico will generally limit/spatially confine thunderstorm potential through the period. However, across TX weak mid-level height rises are expected, with persistent weak low-level ascent and moistening near a coastal front. This will further influenced by modestly increasing south-southeasterly low-level flow/warm advection late this evening and tonight. Elevated convection over inland areas on the cool side of the boundary may produce occasional lightning, potentially in a northward-expanding fashion across parts of central TX tonight into early Wednesday morning. Modest surface-based instability may develop inland along the immediate lower/middle TX coast late this afternoon into tonight, but low-level SRH and lapse rates/parcel accelerations are expected to remain weak. Therefore, severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible through tonight along the lower/middle Texas Coast into central Texas, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough over the eastern CONUS will be reinforced by an amplifying and southeastward-digging shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairie provinces toward the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through tonight. Surface high pressure across the Southeast and cool/stable low-level trajectories across most of the Gulf of Mexico will generally limit/spatially confine thunderstorm potential through the period. However, across TX weak mid-level height rises are expected, with persistent weak low-level ascent and moistening near a coastal front. This will further influenced by modestly increasing south-southeasterly low-level flow/warm advection late this evening and tonight. Elevated convection over inland areas on the cool side of the boundary may produce occasional lightning, potentially in a northward-expanding fashion across parts of central TX tonight into early Wednesday morning. Modest surface-based instability may develop inland along the immediate lower/middle TX coast late this afternoon into tonight, but low-level SRH and lapse rates/parcel accelerations are expected to remain weak. Therefore, severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible through tonight along the lower/middle Texas Coast into central Texas, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough over the eastern CONUS will be reinforced by an amplifying and southeastward-digging shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairie provinces toward the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through tonight. Surface high pressure across the Southeast and cool/stable low-level trajectories across most of the Gulf of Mexico will generally limit/spatially confine thunderstorm potential through the period. However, across TX weak mid-level height rises are expected, with persistent weak low-level ascent and moistening near a coastal front. This will further influenced by modestly increasing south-southeasterly low-level flow/warm advection late this evening and tonight. Elevated convection over inland areas on the cool side of the boundary may produce occasional lightning, potentially in a northward-expanding fashion across parts of central TX tonight into early Wednesday morning. Modest surface-based instability may develop inland along the immediate lower/middle TX coast late this afternoon into tonight, but low-level SRH and lapse rates/parcel accelerations are expected to remain weak. Therefore, severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible through tonight along the lower/middle Texas Coast into central Texas, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough over the eastern CONUS will be reinforced by an amplifying and southeastward-digging shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairie provinces toward the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through tonight. Surface high pressure across the Southeast and cool/stable low-level trajectories across most of the Gulf of Mexico will generally limit/spatially confine thunderstorm potential through the period. However, across TX weak mid-level height rises are expected, with persistent weak low-level ascent and moistening near a coastal front. This will further influenced by modestly increasing south-southeasterly low-level flow/warm advection late this evening and tonight. Elevated convection over inland areas on the cool side of the boundary may produce occasional lightning, potentially in a northward-expanding fashion across parts of central TX tonight into early Wednesday morning. Modest surface-based instability may develop inland along the immediate lower/middle TX coast late this afternoon into tonight, but low-level SRH and lapse rates/parcel accelerations are expected to remain weak. Therefore, severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible through tonight along the lower/middle Texas Coast into central Texas, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough over the eastern CONUS will be reinforced by an amplifying and southeastward-digging shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairie provinces toward the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through tonight. Surface high pressure across the Southeast and cool/stable low-level trajectories across most of the Gulf of Mexico will generally limit/spatially confine thunderstorm potential through the period. However, across TX weak mid-level height rises are expected, with persistent weak low-level ascent and moistening near a coastal front. This will further influenced by modestly increasing south-southeasterly low-level flow/warm advection late this evening and tonight. Elevated convection over inland areas on the cool side of the boundary may produce occasional lightning, potentially in a northward-expanding fashion across parts of central TX tonight into early Wednesday morning. Modest surface-based instability may develop inland along the immediate lower/middle TX coast late this afternoon into tonight, but low-level SRH and lapse rates/parcel accelerations are expected to remain weak. Therefore, severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible through tonight along the lower/middle Texas Coast into central Texas, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough over the eastern CONUS will be reinforced by an amplifying and southeastward-digging shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairie provinces toward the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through tonight. Surface high pressure across the Southeast and cool/stable low-level trajectories across most of the Gulf of Mexico will generally limit/spatially confine thunderstorm potential through the period. However, across TX weak mid-level height rises are expected, with persistent weak low-level ascent and moistening near a coastal front. This will further influenced by modestly increasing south-southeasterly low-level flow/warm advection late this evening and tonight. Elevated convection over inland areas on the cool side of the boundary may produce occasional lightning, potentially in a northward-expanding fashion across parts of central TX tonight into early Wednesday morning. Modest surface-based instability may develop inland along the immediate lower/middle TX coast late this afternoon into tonight, but low-level SRH and lapse rates/parcel accelerations are expected to remain weak. Therefore, severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible through tonight along the lower/middle Texas Coast into central Texas, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A large-scale upper trough over the eastern CONUS will be reinforced by an amplifying and southeastward-digging shortwave trough over the Canadian Prairie provinces toward the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through tonight. Surface high pressure across the Southeast and cool/stable low-level trajectories across most of the Gulf of Mexico will generally limit/spatially confine thunderstorm potential through the period. However, across TX weak mid-level height rises are expected, with persistent weak low-level ascent and moistening near a coastal front. This will further influenced by modestly increasing south-southeasterly low-level flow/warm advection late this evening and tonight. Elevated convection over inland areas on the cool side of the boundary may produce occasional lightning, potentially in a northward-expanding fashion across parts of central TX tonight into early Wednesday morning. Modest surface-based instability may develop inland along the immediate lower/middle TX coast late this afternoon into tonight, but low-level SRH and lapse rates/parcel accelerations are expected to remain weak. Therefore, severe thunderstorms appear unlikely. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the south Texas Coast, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion including South Texas... A persistent longwave trough over the eastern CONUS will be reinforced by an amplifying and southeastward-digging upper trough over the Canadian Prairies toward the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through tonight. A continued prevalence of surface high pressure and cool/stable continental trajectories will considerably limit and spatially confine thunderstorm potential. Across Deep South Texas, weak mid-level height rises are expected, with persistent weak low-level ascent and moistening near a coastal boundary, further influenced by strengthening southeasterly low-level flow/warm advection late today and tonight. Elevated convection over inland areas on the cool side of the boundary may produce occasional lightning, potentially in a northward-expanding fashion tonight. Modest surface-based destabilization may develop inland along the immediate coast late this afternoon into tonight, but low-level SRH and lapse rates/parcel accelerations are expected to remain weak, and thus severe thunderstorms are unlikely. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the south Texas Coast, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion including South Texas... A persistent longwave trough over the eastern CONUS will be reinforced by an amplifying and southeastward-digging upper trough over the Canadian Prairies toward the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through tonight. A continued prevalence of surface high pressure and cool/stable continental trajectories will considerably limit and spatially confine thunderstorm potential. Across Deep South Texas, weak mid-level height rises are expected, with persistent weak low-level ascent and moistening near a coastal boundary, further influenced by strengthening southeasterly low-level flow/warm advection late today and tonight. Elevated convection over inland areas on the cool side of the boundary may produce occasional lightning, potentially in a northward-expanding fashion tonight. Modest surface-based destabilization may develop inland along the immediate coast late this afternoon into tonight, but low-level SRH and lapse rates/parcel accelerations are expected to remain weak, and thus severe thunderstorms are unlikely. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the south Texas Coast, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion including South Texas... A persistent longwave trough over the eastern CONUS will be reinforced by an amplifying and southeastward-digging upper trough over the Canadian Prairies toward the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through tonight. A continued prevalence of surface high pressure and cool/stable continental trajectories will considerably limit and spatially confine thunderstorm potential. Across Deep South Texas, weak mid-level height rises are expected, with persistent weak low-level ascent and moistening near a coastal boundary, further influenced by strengthening southeasterly low-level flow/warm advection late today and tonight. Elevated convection over inland areas on the cool side of the boundary may produce occasional lightning, potentially in a northward-expanding fashion tonight. Modest surface-based destabilization may develop inland along the immediate coast late this afternoon into tonight, but low-level SRH and lapse rates/parcel accelerations are expected to remain weak, and thus severe thunderstorms are unlikely. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the south Texas Coast, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion including South Texas... A persistent longwave trough over the eastern CONUS will be reinforced by an amplifying and southeastward-digging upper trough over the Canadian Prairies toward the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through tonight. A continued prevalence of surface high pressure and cool/stable continental trajectories will considerably limit and spatially confine thunderstorm potential. Across Deep South Texas, weak mid-level height rises are expected, with persistent weak low-level ascent and moistening near a coastal boundary, further influenced by strengthening southeasterly low-level flow/warm advection late today and tonight. Elevated convection over inland areas on the cool side of the boundary may produce occasional lightning, potentially in a northward-expanding fashion tonight. Modest surface-based destabilization may develop inland along the immediate coast late this afternoon into tonight, but low-level SRH and lapse rates/parcel accelerations are expected to remain weak, and thus severe thunderstorms are unlikely. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0659 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the south Texas Coast, but severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Discussion including South Texas... A persistent longwave trough over the eastern CONUS will be reinforced by an amplifying and southeastward-digging upper trough over the Canadian Prairies toward the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes through tonight. A continued prevalence of surface high pressure and cool/stable continental trajectories will considerably limit and spatially confine thunderstorm potential. Across Deep South Texas, weak mid-level height rises are expected, with persistent weak low-level ascent and moistening near a coastal boundary, further influenced by strengthening southeasterly low-level flow/warm advection late today and tonight. Elevated convection over inland areas on the cool side of the boundary may produce occasional lightning, potentially in a northward-expanding fashion tonight. Modest surface-based destabilization may develop inland along the immediate coast late this afternoon into tonight, but low-level SRH and lapse rates/parcel accelerations are expected to remain weak, and thus severe thunderstorms are unlikely. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/03/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Significant low-level moisture will remain offshore through the middle of the weekend. However, by Sunday and especially Monday, the GFS and ECMWF both show mid 60s dewpoints inland perhaps as far north as the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Once this moisture moves inland, some severe weather is possible. Greatest concern at this time is Day8/Tuesday as both the ECMWF and GFS (as well as their ensemble mean) have a strong, positively tilted mid-level trough moving into the southern Plains with surface cyclogenesis. Despite the mid 60s dewpoints inland, current forecast instability from the ECMWF and GFS remains quite weak. This combined with uncertainty regarding timing and evolution of the trough precludes any significant severe weather concern at this time. However, this period will continue to be monitored as the details become more clear. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0202 AM CST Tue Dec 03 2024 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Significant low-level moisture will remain offshore through the middle of the weekend. However, by Sunday and especially Monday, the GFS and ECMWF both show mid 60s dewpoints inland perhaps as far north as the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Once this moisture moves inland, some severe weather is possible. Greatest concern at this time is Day8/Tuesday as both the ECMWF and GFS (as well as their ensemble mean) have a strong, positively tilted mid-level trough moving into the southern Plains with surface cyclogenesis. Despite the mid 60s dewpoints inland, current forecast instability from the ECMWF and GFS remains quite weak. This combined with uncertainty regarding timing and evolution of the trough precludes any significant severe weather concern at this time. However, this period will continue to be monitored as the details become more clear. Read more