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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... The previous forecast remains valid, and no changes are required. South to southwest surface winds are still expected to increase to 15 to 25 mph across portions of central NM Saturday afternoon as an upper low impacts the region. Although localized areas of elevated to critical fire weather conditions will be possible here, widespread fuels do not appear particularly receptive. Please see the discussion below for additional details. ..Barnes.. 09/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low across the CONUS on Saturday as a cold front brings cooler temperatures and increasing precipitation chances across much of the central/northern Plains. Brief periods of Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible across portions of New Mexico as enhanced mid-level flow rounds the western US upper low. Fuels across this region remain unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time with potential for additional rainfall from thunderstorm activity on Saturday. As such, no areas were included with this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST...CENTRAL PLAINS...AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon over parts of the Midwest including southwest Lower Michigan, Illinois, and Indiana. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible across parts of the south-central Plains and the northern High Plains. ...Central Plains... Low-level moisture will advect north-northwestward throughout the day associated with a warm front. As a result, low to mid 60s dewpoints will likely be in place across south-central/southeast KS during the late afternoon. Dewpoints will likely be in upper 50s farther west in southwest KS, with notably drier conditions across the adjacent TX/OK Panhandles where downsloping southwesterly surface winds are likely. Southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the approaching upper low will advect steep mid-level lapse rates northeastward through the southern High Plains into western portions of the central Plains. Modest buoyancy is anticipated during the late afternoon where these lapse rates overlay the more favorable low-level moisture across southern KS. Limited large-scale ascent and low-level confluence near the warm front are anticipated over this region as well, with isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms anticipated. Vertical shear will be modest, but still strong enough for persistent/organized storm structures, and the potential for some strong gusts with the more robust storms. Some isolated hail is also possible over south-central KS where buoyancy is maximized. Low-level moisture will continue advection northward during the evening and overnight, with a strengthening low-level jet anticipated as well. Consequently, additional thunderstorm development is expected after 04Z over northeast KS and adjacent far southeast NE and northwest MO. Isolated hail is possible with the strongest storms. ...Midwest including Illinois/Indiana to Lower Michigan... Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are expected from southwest Lower MI southwestward across western IN, southern IL, and southeast MO. Daytime heating of this moist low-level air mass will yield a moderately unstable and uncapped air mass ahead of the approaching front, and thunderstorm development is anticipated as the front interacts with this airmass. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but poor lapse rates and notable mid-level dry air could make updraft maintenance difficult. A multicellular storm mode is anticipated. Highest storm coverage is expected over southwest Lower MI and western IN, with warm mid-level temperatures tending to limit coverage farther southwest. Locally strong wind gusts will be the primary severe risk, with isolated, marginally severe hail possible as well. ...Northern Montana/northwest North Dakota... At least widely scattered low-topped thunderstorms should develop across northern Montana and/or move into the region from southern Alberta as a cold front moves southeastward. This will be influenced by a southeastward-digging shortwave trough and a related strengthening of cyclonic westerlies within its base. Even with modest overall buoyancy, a diurnal steepening of low-level lapse rates and strengthening low/mid-tropospheric westerlies could potentially yield severe-caliber convectively enhanced wind gusts late this afternoon through around sunset. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST...CENTRAL PLAINS...AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon over parts of the Midwest including southwest Lower Michigan, Illinois, and Indiana. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible across parts of the south-central Plains and the northern High Plains. ...Central Plains... Low-level moisture will advect north-northwestward throughout the day associated with a warm front. As a result, low to mid 60s dewpoints will likely be in place across south-central/southeast KS during the late afternoon. Dewpoints will likely be in upper 50s farther west in southwest KS, with notably drier conditions across the adjacent TX/OK Panhandles where downsloping southwesterly surface winds are likely. Southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the approaching upper low will advect steep mid-level lapse rates northeastward through the southern High Plains into western portions of the central Plains. Modest buoyancy is anticipated during the late afternoon where these lapse rates overlay the more favorable low-level moisture across southern KS. Limited large-scale ascent and low-level confluence near the warm front are anticipated over this region as well, with isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms anticipated. Vertical shear will be modest, but still strong enough for persistent/organized storm structures, and the potential for some strong gusts with the more robust storms. Some isolated hail is also possible over south-central KS where buoyancy is maximized. Low-level moisture will continue advection northward during the evening and overnight, with a strengthening low-level jet anticipated as well. Consequently, additional thunderstorm development is expected after 04Z over northeast KS and adjacent far southeast NE and northwest MO. Isolated hail is possible with the strongest storms. ...Midwest including Illinois/Indiana to Lower Michigan... Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are expected from southwest Lower MI southwestward across western IN, southern IL, and southeast MO. Daytime heating of this moist low-level air mass will yield a moderately unstable and uncapped air mass ahead of the approaching front, and thunderstorm development is anticipated as the front interacts with this airmass. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but poor lapse rates and notable mid-level dry air could make updraft maintenance difficult. A multicellular storm mode is anticipated. Highest storm coverage is expected over southwest Lower MI and western IN, with warm mid-level temperatures tending to limit coverage farther southwest. Locally strong wind gusts will be the primary severe risk, with isolated, marginally severe hail possible as well. ...Northern Montana/northwest North Dakota... At least widely scattered low-topped thunderstorms should develop across northern Montana and/or move into the region from southern Alberta as a cold front moves southeastward. This will be influenced by a southeastward-digging shortwave trough and a related strengthening of cyclonic westerlies within its base. Even with modest overall buoyancy, a diurnal steepening of low-level lapse rates and strengthening low/mid-tropospheric westerlies could potentially yield severe-caliber convectively enhanced wind gusts late this afternoon through around sunset. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST...CENTRAL PLAINS...AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon over parts of the Midwest including southwest Lower Michigan, Illinois, and Indiana. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible across parts of the south-central Plains and the northern High Plains. ...Central Plains... Low-level moisture will advect north-northwestward throughout the day associated with a warm front. As a result, low to mid 60s dewpoints will likely be in place across south-central/southeast KS during the late afternoon. Dewpoints will likely be in upper 50s farther west in southwest KS, with notably drier conditions across the adjacent TX/OK Panhandles where downsloping southwesterly surface winds are likely. Southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the approaching upper low will advect steep mid-level lapse rates northeastward through the southern High Plains into western portions of the central Plains. Modest buoyancy is anticipated during the late afternoon where these lapse rates overlay the more favorable low-level moisture across southern KS. Limited large-scale ascent and low-level confluence near the warm front are anticipated over this region as well, with isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms anticipated. Vertical shear will be modest, but still strong enough for persistent/organized storm structures, and the potential for some strong gusts with the more robust storms. Some isolated hail is also possible over south-central KS where buoyancy is maximized. Low-level moisture will continue advection northward during the evening and overnight, with a strengthening low-level jet anticipated as well. Consequently, additional thunderstorm development is expected after 04Z over northeast KS and adjacent far southeast NE and northwest MO. Isolated hail is possible with the strongest storms. ...Midwest including Illinois/Indiana to Lower Michigan... Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are expected from southwest Lower MI southwestward across western IN, southern IL, and southeast MO. Daytime heating of this moist low-level air mass will yield a moderately unstable and uncapped air mass ahead of the approaching front, and thunderstorm development is anticipated as the front interacts with this airmass. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but poor lapse rates and notable mid-level dry air could make updraft maintenance difficult. A multicellular storm mode is anticipated. Highest storm coverage is expected over southwest Lower MI and western IN, with warm mid-level temperatures tending to limit coverage farther southwest. Locally strong wind gusts will be the primary severe risk, with isolated, marginally severe hail possible as well. ...Northern Montana/northwest North Dakota... At least widely scattered low-topped thunderstorms should develop across northern Montana and/or move into the region from southern Alberta as a cold front moves southeastward. This will be influenced by a southeastward-digging shortwave trough and a related strengthening of cyclonic westerlies within its base. Even with modest overall buoyancy, a diurnal steepening of low-level lapse rates and strengthening low/mid-tropospheric westerlies could potentially yield severe-caliber convectively enhanced wind gusts late this afternoon through around sunset. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST...CENTRAL PLAINS...AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon over parts of the Midwest including southwest Lower Michigan, Illinois, and Indiana. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible across parts of the south-central Plains and the northern High Plains. ...Central Plains... Low-level moisture will advect north-northwestward throughout the day associated with a warm front. As a result, low to mid 60s dewpoints will likely be in place across south-central/southeast KS during the late afternoon. Dewpoints will likely be in upper 50s farther west in southwest KS, with notably drier conditions across the adjacent TX/OK Panhandles where downsloping southwesterly surface winds are likely. Southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the approaching upper low will advect steep mid-level lapse rates northeastward through the southern High Plains into western portions of the central Plains. Modest buoyancy is anticipated during the late afternoon where these lapse rates overlay the more favorable low-level moisture across southern KS. Limited large-scale ascent and low-level confluence near the warm front are anticipated over this region as well, with isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms anticipated. Vertical shear will be modest, but still strong enough for persistent/organized storm structures, and the potential for some strong gusts with the more robust storms. Some isolated hail is also possible over south-central KS where buoyancy is maximized. Low-level moisture will continue advection northward during the evening and overnight, with a strengthening low-level jet anticipated as well. Consequently, additional thunderstorm development is expected after 04Z over northeast KS and adjacent far southeast NE and northwest MO. Isolated hail is possible with the strongest storms. ...Midwest including Illinois/Indiana to Lower Michigan... Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are expected from southwest Lower MI southwestward across western IN, southern IL, and southeast MO. Daytime heating of this moist low-level air mass will yield a moderately unstable and uncapped air mass ahead of the approaching front, and thunderstorm development is anticipated as the front interacts with this airmass. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but poor lapse rates and notable mid-level dry air could make updraft maintenance difficult. A multicellular storm mode is anticipated. Highest storm coverage is expected over southwest Lower MI and western IN, with warm mid-level temperatures tending to limit coverage farther southwest. Locally strong wind gusts will be the primary severe risk, with isolated, marginally severe hail possible as well. ...Northern Montana/northwest North Dakota... At least widely scattered low-topped thunderstorms should develop across northern Montana and/or move into the region from southern Alberta as a cold front moves southeastward. This will be influenced by a southeastward-digging shortwave trough and a related strengthening of cyclonic westerlies within its base. Even with modest overall buoyancy, a diurnal steepening of low-level lapse rates and strengthening low/mid-tropospheric westerlies could potentially yield severe-caliber convectively enhanced wind gusts late this afternoon through around sunset. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST...CENTRAL PLAINS...AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon over parts of the Midwest including southwest Lower Michigan, Illinois, and Indiana. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible across parts of the south-central Plains and the northern High Plains. ...Central Plains... Low-level moisture will advect north-northwestward throughout the day associated with a warm front. As a result, low to mid 60s dewpoints will likely be in place across south-central/southeast KS during the late afternoon. Dewpoints will likely be in upper 50s farther west in southwest KS, with notably drier conditions across the adjacent TX/OK Panhandles where downsloping southwesterly surface winds are likely. Southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the approaching upper low will advect steep mid-level lapse rates northeastward through the southern High Plains into western portions of the central Plains. Modest buoyancy is anticipated during the late afternoon where these lapse rates overlay the more favorable low-level moisture across southern KS. Limited large-scale ascent and low-level confluence near the warm front are anticipated over this region as well, with isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms anticipated. Vertical shear will be modest, but still strong enough for persistent/organized storm structures, and the potential for some strong gusts with the more robust storms. Some isolated hail is also possible over south-central KS where buoyancy is maximized. Low-level moisture will continue advection northward during the evening and overnight, with a strengthening low-level jet anticipated as well. Consequently, additional thunderstorm development is expected after 04Z over northeast KS and adjacent far southeast NE and northwest MO. Isolated hail is possible with the strongest storms. ...Midwest including Illinois/Indiana to Lower Michigan... Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are expected from southwest Lower MI southwestward across western IN, southern IL, and southeast MO. Daytime heating of this moist low-level air mass will yield a moderately unstable and uncapped air mass ahead of the approaching front, and thunderstorm development is anticipated as the front interacts with this airmass. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but poor lapse rates and notable mid-level dry air could make updraft maintenance difficult. A multicellular storm mode is anticipated. Highest storm coverage is expected over southwest Lower MI and western IN, with warm mid-level temperatures tending to limit coverage farther southwest. Locally strong wind gusts will be the primary severe risk, with isolated, marginally severe hail possible as well. ...Northern Montana/northwest North Dakota... At least widely scattered low-topped thunderstorms should develop across northern Montana and/or move into the region from southern Alberta as a cold front moves southeastward. This will be influenced by a southeastward-digging shortwave trough and a related strengthening of cyclonic westerlies within its base. Even with modest overall buoyancy, a diurnal steepening of low-level lapse rates and strengthening low/mid-tropospheric westerlies could potentially yield severe-caliber convectively enhanced wind gusts late this afternoon through around sunset. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST...CENTRAL PLAINS...AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon over parts of the Midwest including southwest Lower Michigan, Illinois, and Indiana. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible across parts of the south-central Plains and the northern High Plains. ...Central Plains... Low-level moisture will advect north-northwestward throughout the day associated with a warm front. As a result, low to mid 60s dewpoints will likely be in place across south-central/southeast KS during the late afternoon. Dewpoints will likely be in upper 50s farther west in southwest KS, with notably drier conditions across the adjacent TX/OK Panhandles where downsloping southwesterly surface winds are likely. Southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the approaching upper low will advect steep mid-level lapse rates northeastward through the southern High Plains into western portions of the central Plains. Modest buoyancy is anticipated during the late afternoon where these lapse rates overlay the more favorable low-level moisture across southern KS. Limited large-scale ascent and low-level confluence near the warm front are anticipated over this region as well, with isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms anticipated. Vertical shear will be modest, but still strong enough for persistent/organized storm structures, and the potential for some strong gusts with the more robust storms. Some isolated hail is also possible over south-central KS where buoyancy is maximized. Low-level moisture will continue advection northward during the evening and overnight, with a strengthening low-level jet anticipated as well. Consequently, additional thunderstorm development is expected after 04Z over northeast KS and adjacent far southeast NE and northwest MO. Isolated hail is possible with the strongest storms. ...Midwest including Illinois/Indiana to Lower Michigan... Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are expected from southwest Lower MI southwestward across western IN, southern IL, and southeast MO. Daytime heating of this moist low-level air mass will yield a moderately unstable and uncapped air mass ahead of the approaching front, and thunderstorm development is anticipated as the front interacts with this airmass. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but poor lapse rates and notable mid-level dry air could make updraft maintenance difficult. A multicellular storm mode is anticipated. Highest storm coverage is expected over southwest Lower MI and western IN, with warm mid-level temperatures tending to limit coverage farther southwest. Locally strong wind gusts will be the primary severe risk, with isolated, marginally severe hail possible as well. ...Northern Montana/northwest North Dakota... At least widely scattered low-topped thunderstorms should develop across northern Montana and/or move into the region from southern Alberta as a cold front moves southeastward. This will be influenced by a southeastward-digging shortwave trough and a related strengthening of cyclonic westerlies within its base. Even with modest overall buoyancy, a diurnal steepening of low-level lapse rates and strengthening low/mid-tropospheric westerlies could potentially yield severe-caliber convectively enhanced wind gusts late this afternoon through around sunset. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST...CENTRAL PLAINS...AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon over parts of the Midwest including southwest Lower Michigan, Illinois, and Indiana. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible across parts of the south-central Plains and the northern High Plains. ...Central Plains... Low-level moisture will advect north-northwestward throughout the day associated with a warm front. As a result, low to mid 60s dewpoints will likely be in place across south-central/southeast KS during the late afternoon. Dewpoints will likely be in upper 50s farther west in southwest KS, with notably drier conditions across the adjacent TX/OK Panhandles where downsloping southwesterly surface winds are likely. Southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the approaching upper low will advect steep mid-level lapse rates northeastward through the southern High Plains into western portions of the central Plains. Modest buoyancy is anticipated during the late afternoon where these lapse rates overlay the more favorable low-level moisture across southern KS. Limited large-scale ascent and low-level confluence near the warm front are anticipated over this region as well, with isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms anticipated. Vertical shear will be modest, but still strong enough for persistent/organized storm structures, and the potential for some strong gusts with the more robust storms. Some isolated hail is also possible over south-central KS where buoyancy is maximized. Low-level moisture will continue advection northward during the evening and overnight, with a strengthening low-level jet anticipated as well. Consequently, additional thunderstorm development is expected after 04Z over northeast KS and adjacent far southeast NE and northwest MO. Isolated hail is possible with the strongest storms. ...Midwest including Illinois/Indiana to Lower Michigan... Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are expected from southwest Lower MI southwestward across western IN, southern IL, and southeast MO. Daytime heating of this moist low-level air mass will yield a moderately unstable and uncapped air mass ahead of the approaching front, and thunderstorm development is anticipated as the front interacts with this airmass. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but poor lapse rates and notable mid-level dry air could make updraft maintenance difficult. A multicellular storm mode is anticipated. Highest storm coverage is expected over southwest Lower MI and western IN, with warm mid-level temperatures tending to limit coverage farther southwest. Locally strong wind gusts will be the primary severe risk, with isolated, marginally severe hail possible as well. ...Northern Montana/northwest North Dakota... At least widely scattered low-topped thunderstorms should develop across northern Montana and/or move into the region from southern Alberta as a cold front moves southeastward. This will be influenced by a southeastward-digging shortwave trough and a related strengthening of cyclonic westerlies within its base. Even with modest overall buoyancy, a diurnal steepening of low-level lapse rates and strengthening low/mid-tropospheric westerlies could potentially yield severe-caliber convectively enhanced wind gusts late this afternoon through around sunset. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST...CENTRAL PLAINS...AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon over parts of the Midwest including southwest Lower Michigan, Illinois, and Indiana. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible across parts of the south-central Plains and the northern High Plains. ...Central Plains... Low-level moisture will advect north-northwestward throughout the day associated with a warm front. As a result, low to mid 60s dewpoints will likely be in place across south-central/southeast KS during the late afternoon. Dewpoints will likely be in upper 50s farther west in southwest KS, with notably drier conditions across the adjacent TX/OK Panhandles where downsloping southwesterly surface winds are likely. Southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the approaching upper low will advect steep mid-level lapse rates northeastward through the southern High Plains into western portions of the central Plains. Modest buoyancy is anticipated during the late afternoon where these lapse rates overlay the more favorable low-level moisture across southern KS. Limited large-scale ascent and low-level confluence near the warm front are anticipated over this region as well, with isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms anticipated. Vertical shear will be modest, but still strong enough for persistent/organized storm structures, and the potential for some strong gusts with the more robust storms. Some isolated hail is also possible over south-central KS where buoyancy is maximized. Low-level moisture will continue advection northward during the evening and overnight, with a strengthening low-level jet anticipated as well. Consequently, additional thunderstorm development is expected after 04Z over northeast KS and adjacent far southeast NE and northwest MO. Isolated hail is possible with the strongest storms. ...Midwest including Illinois/Indiana to Lower Michigan... Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are expected from southwest Lower MI southwestward across western IN, southern IL, and southeast MO. Daytime heating of this moist low-level air mass will yield a moderately unstable and uncapped air mass ahead of the approaching front, and thunderstorm development is anticipated as the front interacts with this airmass. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but poor lapse rates and notable mid-level dry air could make updraft maintenance difficult. A multicellular storm mode is anticipated. Highest storm coverage is expected over southwest Lower MI and western IN, with warm mid-level temperatures tending to limit coverage farther southwest. Locally strong wind gusts will be the primary severe risk, with isolated, marginally severe hail possible as well. ...Northern Montana/northwest North Dakota... At least widely scattered low-topped thunderstorms should develop across northern Montana and/or move into the region from southern Alberta as a cold front moves southeastward. This will be influenced by a southeastward-digging shortwave trough and a related strengthening of cyclonic westerlies within its base. Even with modest overall buoyancy, a diurnal steepening of low-level lapse rates and strengthening low/mid-tropospheric westerlies could potentially yield severe-caliber convectively enhanced wind gusts late this afternoon through around sunset. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST...CENTRAL PLAINS...AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible during the late afternoon over parts of the Midwest including southwest Lower Michigan, Illinois, and Indiana. Isolated strong to severe storms are also possible across parts of the south-central Plains and the northern High Plains. ...Central Plains... Low-level moisture will advect north-northwestward throughout the day associated with a warm front. As a result, low to mid 60s dewpoints will likely be in place across south-central/southeast KS during the late afternoon. Dewpoints will likely be in upper 50s farther west in southwest KS, with notably drier conditions across the adjacent TX/OK Panhandles where downsloping southwesterly surface winds are likely. Southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the approaching upper low will advect steep mid-level lapse rates northeastward through the southern High Plains into western portions of the central Plains. Modest buoyancy is anticipated during the late afternoon where these lapse rates overlay the more favorable low-level moisture across southern KS. Limited large-scale ascent and low-level confluence near the warm front are anticipated over this region as well, with isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms anticipated. Vertical shear will be modest, but still strong enough for persistent/organized storm structures, and the potential for some strong gusts with the more robust storms. Some isolated hail is also possible over south-central KS where buoyancy is maximized. Low-level moisture will continue advection northward during the evening and overnight, with a strengthening low-level jet anticipated as well. Consequently, additional thunderstorm development is expected after 04Z over northeast KS and adjacent far southeast NE and northwest MO. Isolated hail is possible with the strongest storms. ...Midwest including Illinois/Indiana to Lower Michigan... Upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints are expected from southwest Lower MI southwestward across western IN, southern IL, and southeast MO. Daytime heating of this moist low-level air mass will yield a moderately unstable and uncapped air mass ahead of the approaching front, and thunderstorm development is anticipated as the front interacts with this airmass. Moderate vertical shear will be in place, but poor lapse rates and notable mid-level dry air could make updraft maintenance difficult. A multicellular storm mode is anticipated. Highest storm coverage is expected over southwest Lower MI and western IN, with warm mid-level temperatures tending to limit coverage farther southwest. Locally strong wind gusts will be the primary severe risk, with isolated, marginally severe hail possible as well. ...Northern Montana/northwest North Dakota... At least widely scattered low-topped thunderstorms should develop across northern Montana and/or move into the region from southern Alberta as a cold front moves southeastward. This will be influenced by a southeastward-digging shortwave trough and a related strengthening of cyclonic westerlies within its base. Even with modest overall buoyancy, a diurnal steepening of low-level lapse rates and strengthening low/mid-tropospheric westerlies could potentially yield severe-caliber convectively enhanced wind gusts late this afternoon through around sunset. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/20/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...Update... The latest model data suite continues to suggest elevated fire weather conditions for this afternoon across portions of eastern WY due to warm, dry, and breezy westerly downslope flow. Another area of minor concern will be ahead of an approaching upper level trough from southeastern NM through the Caprock of TX. A narrow corridor of drying, and southwest sustained winds near 15 to 20 mph, could support a couple of hours of localized elevated fire weather there. However, recent trends in relatively higher boundary layer moisture and increasing cloud cover over this region (less mixing expected) do not warrant an additional Elevated area at this time. Please see the previous discussion for details pertaining to the Southwest. ..Barnes.. 09/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Central/Northern Plains... A shortwave trough moving across the Canadian Provinces will bring enhanced westerly flow across the northern Rockies. Warm and dry downslope flow east of the Bighorn Mountains will be likely across eastern Wyoming into portions of far southeastern South Dakota. A period of elevated fire weather conditions will be likely, with relative humidity reductions to 10-15% amid sustained westerly winds 15-20 mph. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support wildfire spread, with little observed rainfall in the last 30 days. ...Southwest... An enhanced belt of mid-level flow within a deepening mid-level low will spread across the Southwest. Boundary-layer mixing into this strong deep-layer flow will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of western NM and eastern AZ during this afternoon. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible. Fuels across the southwest are generally unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time. Elsewhere, a minimal overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...Update... The latest model data suite continues to suggest elevated fire weather conditions for this afternoon across portions of eastern WY due to warm, dry, and breezy westerly downslope flow. Another area of minor concern will be ahead of an approaching upper level trough from southeastern NM through the Caprock of TX. A narrow corridor of drying, and southwest sustained winds near 15 to 20 mph, could support a couple of hours of localized elevated fire weather there. However, recent trends in relatively higher boundary layer moisture and increasing cloud cover over this region (less mixing expected) do not warrant an additional Elevated area at this time. Please see the previous discussion for details pertaining to the Southwest. ..Barnes.. 09/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Central/Northern Plains... A shortwave trough moving across the Canadian Provinces will bring enhanced westerly flow across the northern Rockies. Warm and dry downslope flow east of the Bighorn Mountains will be likely across eastern Wyoming into portions of far southeastern South Dakota. A period of elevated fire weather conditions will be likely, with relative humidity reductions to 10-15% amid sustained westerly winds 15-20 mph. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support wildfire spread, with little observed rainfall in the last 30 days. ...Southwest... An enhanced belt of mid-level flow within a deepening mid-level low will spread across the Southwest. Boundary-layer mixing into this strong deep-layer flow will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of western NM and eastern AZ during this afternoon. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible. Fuels across the southwest are generally unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time. Elsewhere, a minimal overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...Update... The latest model data suite continues to suggest elevated fire weather conditions for this afternoon across portions of eastern WY due to warm, dry, and breezy westerly downslope flow. Another area of minor concern will be ahead of an approaching upper level trough from southeastern NM through the Caprock of TX. A narrow corridor of drying, and southwest sustained winds near 15 to 20 mph, could support a couple of hours of localized elevated fire weather there. However, recent trends in relatively higher boundary layer moisture and increasing cloud cover over this region (less mixing expected) do not warrant an additional Elevated area at this time. Please see the previous discussion for details pertaining to the Southwest. ..Barnes.. 09/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Central/Northern Plains... A shortwave trough moving across the Canadian Provinces will bring enhanced westerly flow across the northern Rockies. Warm and dry downslope flow east of the Bighorn Mountains will be likely across eastern Wyoming into portions of far southeastern South Dakota. A period of elevated fire weather conditions will be likely, with relative humidity reductions to 10-15% amid sustained westerly winds 15-20 mph. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support wildfire spread, with little observed rainfall in the last 30 days. ...Southwest... An enhanced belt of mid-level flow within a deepening mid-level low will spread across the Southwest. Boundary-layer mixing into this strong deep-layer flow will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of western NM and eastern AZ during this afternoon. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible. Fuels across the southwest are generally unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time. Elsewhere, a minimal overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...Update... The latest model data suite continues to suggest elevated fire weather conditions for this afternoon across portions of eastern WY due to warm, dry, and breezy westerly downslope flow. Another area of minor concern will be ahead of an approaching upper level trough from southeastern NM through the Caprock of TX. A narrow corridor of drying, and southwest sustained winds near 15 to 20 mph, could support a couple of hours of localized elevated fire weather there. However, recent trends in relatively higher boundary layer moisture and increasing cloud cover over this region (less mixing expected) do not warrant an additional Elevated area at this time. Please see the previous discussion for details pertaining to the Southwest. ..Barnes.. 09/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Central/Northern Plains... A shortwave trough moving across the Canadian Provinces will bring enhanced westerly flow across the northern Rockies. Warm and dry downslope flow east of the Bighorn Mountains will be likely across eastern Wyoming into portions of far southeastern South Dakota. A period of elevated fire weather conditions will be likely, with relative humidity reductions to 10-15% amid sustained westerly winds 15-20 mph. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support wildfire spread, with little observed rainfall in the last 30 days. ...Southwest... An enhanced belt of mid-level flow within a deepening mid-level low will spread across the Southwest. Boundary-layer mixing into this strong deep-layer flow will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of western NM and eastern AZ during this afternoon. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible. Fuels across the southwest are generally unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time. Elsewhere, a minimal overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...Update... The latest model data suite continues to suggest elevated fire weather conditions for this afternoon across portions of eastern WY due to warm, dry, and breezy westerly downslope flow. Another area of minor concern will be ahead of an approaching upper level trough from southeastern NM through the Caprock of TX. A narrow corridor of drying, and southwest sustained winds near 15 to 20 mph, could support a couple of hours of localized elevated fire weather there. However, recent trends in relatively higher boundary layer moisture and increasing cloud cover over this region (less mixing expected) do not warrant an additional Elevated area at this time. Please see the previous discussion for details pertaining to the Southwest. ..Barnes.. 09/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Central/Northern Plains... A shortwave trough moving across the Canadian Provinces will bring enhanced westerly flow across the northern Rockies. Warm and dry downslope flow east of the Bighorn Mountains will be likely across eastern Wyoming into portions of far southeastern South Dakota. A period of elevated fire weather conditions will be likely, with relative humidity reductions to 10-15% amid sustained westerly winds 15-20 mph. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support wildfire spread, with little observed rainfall in the last 30 days. ...Southwest... An enhanced belt of mid-level flow within a deepening mid-level low will spread across the Southwest. Boundary-layer mixing into this strong deep-layer flow will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of western NM and eastern AZ during this afternoon. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible. Fuels across the southwest are generally unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time. Elsewhere, a minimal overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...Update... The latest model data suite continues to suggest elevated fire weather conditions for this afternoon across portions of eastern WY due to warm, dry, and breezy westerly downslope flow. Another area of minor concern will be ahead of an approaching upper level trough from southeastern NM through the Caprock of TX. A narrow corridor of drying, and southwest sustained winds near 15 to 20 mph, could support a couple of hours of localized elevated fire weather there. However, recent trends in relatively higher boundary layer moisture and increasing cloud cover over this region (less mixing expected) do not warrant an additional Elevated area at this time. Please see the previous discussion for details pertaining to the Southwest. ..Barnes.. 09/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Central/Northern Plains... A shortwave trough moving across the Canadian Provinces will bring enhanced westerly flow across the northern Rockies. Warm and dry downslope flow east of the Bighorn Mountains will be likely across eastern Wyoming into portions of far southeastern South Dakota. A period of elevated fire weather conditions will be likely, with relative humidity reductions to 10-15% amid sustained westerly winds 15-20 mph. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support wildfire spread, with little observed rainfall in the last 30 days. ...Southwest... An enhanced belt of mid-level flow within a deepening mid-level low will spread across the Southwest. Boundary-layer mixing into this strong deep-layer flow will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of western NM and eastern AZ during this afternoon. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible. Fuels across the southwest are generally unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time. Elsewhere, a minimal overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...Update... The latest model data suite continues to suggest elevated fire weather conditions for this afternoon across portions of eastern WY due to warm, dry, and breezy westerly downslope flow. Another area of minor concern will be ahead of an approaching upper level trough from southeastern NM through the Caprock of TX. A narrow corridor of drying, and southwest sustained winds near 15 to 20 mph, could support a couple of hours of localized elevated fire weather there. However, recent trends in relatively higher boundary layer moisture and increasing cloud cover over this region (less mixing expected) do not warrant an additional Elevated area at this time. Please see the previous discussion for details pertaining to the Southwest. ..Barnes.. 09/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Central/Northern Plains... A shortwave trough moving across the Canadian Provinces will bring enhanced westerly flow across the northern Rockies. Warm and dry downslope flow east of the Bighorn Mountains will be likely across eastern Wyoming into portions of far southeastern South Dakota. A period of elevated fire weather conditions will be likely, with relative humidity reductions to 10-15% amid sustained westerly winds 15-20 mph. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support wildfire spread, with little observed rainfall in the last 30 days. ...Southwest... An enhanced belt of mid-level flow within a deepening mid-level low will spread across the Southwest. Boundary-layer mixing into this strong deep-layer flow will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of western NM and eastern AZ during this afternoon. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible. Fuels across the southwest are generally unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time. Elsewhere, a minimal overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...Update... The latest model data suite continues to suggest elevated fire weather conditions for this afternoon across portions of eastern WY due to warm, dry, and breezy westerly downslope flow. Another area of minor concern will be ahead of an approaching upper level trough from southeastern NM through the Caprock of TX. A narrow corridor of drying, and southwest sustained winds near 15 to 20 mph, could support a couple of hours of localized elevated fire weather there. However, recent trends in relatively higher boundary layer moisture and increasing cloud cover over this region (less mixing expected) do not warrant an additional Elevated area at this time. Please see the previous discussion for details pertaining to the Southwest. ..Barnes.. 09/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Central/Northern Plains... A shortwave trough moving across the Canadian Provinces will bring enhanced westerly flow across the northern Rockies. Warm and dry downslope flow east of the Bighorn Mountains will be likely across eastern Wyoming into portions of far southeastern South Dakota. A period of elevated fire weather conditions will be likely, with relative humidity reductions to 10-15% amid sustained westerly winds 15-20 mph. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support wildfire spread, with little observed rainfall in the last 30 days. ...Southwest... An enhanced belt of mid-level flow within a deepening mid-level low will spread across the Southwest. Boundary-layer mixing into this strong deep-layer flow will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of western NM and eastern AZ during this afternoon. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible. Fuels across the southwest are generally unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time. Elsewhere, a minimal overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...Update... The latest model data suite continues to suggest elevated fire weather conditions for this afternoon across portions of eastern WY due to warm, dry, and breezy westerly downslope flow. Another area of minor concern will be ahead of an approaching upper level trough from southeastern NM through the Caprock of TX. A narrow corridor of drying, and southwest sustained winds near 15 to 20 mph, could support a couple of hours of localized elevated fire weather there. However, recent trends in relatively higher boundary layer moisture and increasing cloud cover over this region (less mixing expected) do not warrant an additional Elevated area at this time. Please see the previous discussion for details pertaining to the Southwest. ..Barnes.. 09/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024/ ...Synopsis... ...Central/Northern Plains... A shortwave trough moving across the Canadian Provinces will bring enhanced westerly flow across the northern Rockies. Warm and dry downslope flow east of the Bighorn Mountains will be likely across eastern Wyoming into portions of far southeastern South Dakota. A period of elevated fire weather conditions will be likely, with relative humidity reductions to 10-15% amid sustained westerly winds 15-20 mph. Fuels within this region are sufficiently dry to support wildfire spread, with little observed rainfall in the last 30 days. ...Southwest... An enhanced belt of mid-level flow within a deepening mid-level low will spread across the Southwest. Boundary-layer mixing into this strong deep-layer flow will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of western NM and eastern AZ during this afternoon. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions will be possible. Fuels across the southwest are generally unsupportive of large-fire spread at this time. Elsewhere, a minimal overlap of breezy surface winds and low RH should limit fire-weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Buckeye Lake has become even more shallow than usual and was just four to six feet deep in most areas. The lack of rain has left the lake about 15 inches lower than it ought to be. The main part of the lake was still navigable, but the edges and many of the canals where boats dock were not passable. The low water levels were causing people to damage their props. Some have opted to end the boating season early and take their boats out of the lake. The lakefront restaurants and bars were seeing less business, and the marina was not selling as much gas or service. Spectrum 1 (Columbus, Ohio), Sept 20, 2024