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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from North/East Texas to the ArkLaMiss today and tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected. ...East/Southeast Texas to southwest Louisiana... Widely scattered elevated thunderstorms have developed through the early morning hours across east-central/parts of North Texas, with persistent convection also off the coast of South Texas near a weak surface wave, and into the maritime warm sector where a narrow zone of near 70F/lower 70s F dewpoints reside. Some northward inland advancement of the Texas coastal front is expected today with a related increase in low-level moisture. However, low-level lapse rates are expected to remain weak due to semi-persistent multi-layer cloud cover and muted heating. While low-level SRH is currently weak per 12z observed soundings and regional WSR-88D VWP data, it is expected to increase within the zone of warm advection, particularly near the inland-advancing frontal boundary, coincident with modest surface-based destabilization this afternoon along the middle/upper Texas coast, and eventually southwest Louisiana this evening. While a few weakly rotating storms could occur offshore, current thinking is that the supercell and related tornado/wind potential will remain limited inland, largely due to the poor low-level lapse rates and weak parcel accelerations. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from North/East Texas to the ArkLaMiss today and tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected. ...East/Southeast Texas to southwest Louisiana... Widely scattered elevated thunderstorms have developed through the early morning hours across east-central/parts of North Texas, with persistent convection also off the coast of South Texas near a weak surface wave, and into the maritime warm sector where a narrow zone of near 70F/lower 70s F dewpoints reside. Some northward inland advancement of the Texas coastal front is expected today with a related increase in low-level moisture. However, low-level lapse rates are expected to remain weak due to semi-persistent multi-layer cloud cover and muted heating. While low-level SRH is currently weak per 12z observed soundings and regional WSR-88D VWP data, it is expected to increase within the zone of warm advection, particularly near the inland-advancing frontal boundary, coincident with modest surface-based destabilization this afternoon along the middle/upper Texas coast, and eventually southwest Louisiana this evening. While a few weakly rotating storms could occur offshore, current thinking is that the supercell and related tornado/wind potential will remain limited inland, largely due to the poor low-level lapse rates and weak parcel accelerations. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/04/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 041300Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are expected from North/East Texas to the ArkLaMiss today and tonight. Severe thunderstorms are not currently expected. ...East/Southeast Texas to southwest Louisiana... Widely scattered elevated thunderstorms have developed through the early morning hours across east-central/parts of North Texas, with persistent convection also off the coast of South Texas near a weak surface wave, and into the maritime warm sector where a narrow zone of near 70F/lower 70s F dewpoints reside. Some northward inland advancement of the Texas coastal front is expected today with a related increase in low-level moisture. However, low-level lapse rates are expected to remain weak due to semi-persistent multi-layer cloud cover and muted heating. While low-level SRH is currently weak per 12z observed soundings and regional WSR-88D VWP data, it is expected to increase within the zone of warm advection, particularly near the inland-advancing frontal boundary, coincident with modest surface-based destabilization this afternoon along the middle/upper Texas coast, and eventually southwest Louisiana this evening. While a few weakly rotating storms could occur offshore, current thinking is that the supercell and related tornado/wind potential will remain limited inland, largely due to the poor low-level lapse rates and weak parcel accelerations. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/04/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... After an extended period with troughing in the eastern CONUS and ridging across the west, a pattern change is expected starting this weekend. Ridging will start to build into the Southeast with a series of troughs moving through the western CONUS as a more progressive pattern evolves. As ridging builds across the Southeast, the surface pattern will result in favorable trajectories for significant moisture recovery across the Gulf of Mexico. Some of this richer moisture will likely advect inland across portions of the Gulf Coast and Southeast early next week. The inland moisture intrusion combined with the arrival of several troughs within a progressive pattern would suggest the potential for some severe weather. However, there still remains uncertainty in the upper-level pattern with an elongated, positively tilted trough from the GFS which lacks significant cyclogenesis. In contrast, the ECMWF eventually has a negatively tilted trough emerge from the western trough with a surface cyclone, but it strengthens much later across the Great Lakes with much of the mass response disconnected from the better low-level instability. Will continue to monitor the severe weather potential early next week, but uncertainty remains too high to highlight any specific periods at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... After an extended period with troughing in the eastern CONUS and ridging across the west, a pattern change is expected starting this weekend. Ridging will start to build into the Southeast with a series of troughs moving through the western CONUS as a more progressive pattern evolves. As ridging builds across the Southeast, the surface pattern will result in favorable trajectories for significant moisture recovery across the Gulf of Mexico. Some of this richer moisture will likely advect inland across portions of the Gulf Coast and Southeast early next week. The inland moisture intrusion combined with the arrival of several troughs within a progressive pattern would suggest the potential for some severe weather. However, there still remains uncertainty in the upper-level pattern with an elongated, positively tilted trough from the GFS which lacks significant cyclogenesis. In contrast, the ECMWF eventually has a negatively tilted trough emerge from the western trough with a surface cyclone, but it strengthens much later across the Great Lakes with much of the mass response disconnected from the better low-level instability. Will continue to monitor the severe weather potential early next week, but uncertainty remains too high to highlight any specific periods at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... After an extended period with troughing in the eastern CONUS and ridging across the west, a pattern change is expected starting this weekend. Ridging will start to build into the Southeast with a series of troughs moving through the western CONUS as a more progressive pattern evolves. As ridging builds across the Southeast, the surface pattern will result in favorable trajectories for significant moisture recovery across the Gulf of Mexico. Some of this richer moisture will likely advect inland across portions of the Gulf Coast and Southeast early next week. The inland moisture intrusion combined with the arrival of several troughs within a progressive pattern would suggest the potential for some severe weather. However, there still remains uncertainty in the upper-level pattern with an elongated, positively tilted trough from the GFS which lacks significant cyclogenesis. In contrast, the ECMWF eventually has a negatively tilted trough emerge from the western trough with a surface cyclone, but it strengthens much later across the Great Lakes with much of the mass response disconnected from the better low-level instability. Will continue to monitor the severe weather potential early next week, but uncertainty remains too high to highlight any specific periods at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... After an extended period with troughing in the eastern CONUS and ridging across the west, a pattern change is expected starting this weekend. Ridging will start to build into the Southeast with a series of troughs moving through the western CONUS as a more progressive pattern evolves. As ridging builds across the Southeast, the surface pattern will result in favorable trajectories for significant moisture recovery across the Gulf of Mexico. Some of this richer moisture will likely advect inland across portions of the Gulf Coast and Southeast early next week. The inland moisture intrusion combined with the arrival of several troughs within a progressive pattern would suggest the potential for some severe weather. However, there still remains uncertainty in the upper-level pattern with an elongated, positively tilted trough from the GFS which lacks significant cyclogenesis. In contrast, the ECMWF eventually has a negatively tilted trough emerge from the western trough with a surface cyclone, but it strengthens much later across the Great Lakes with much of the mass response disconnected from the better low-level instability. Will continue to monitor the severe weather potential early next week, but uncertainty remains too high to highlight any specific periods at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 071200Z - 121200Z ...DISCUSSION... After an extended period with troughing in the eastern CONUS and ridging across the west, a pattern change is expected starting this weekend. Ridging will start to build into the Southeast with a series of troughs moving through the western CONUS as a more progressive pattern evolves. As ridging builds across the Southeast, the surface pattern will result in favorable trajectories for significant moisture recovery across the Gulf of Mexico. Some of this richer moisture will likely advect inland across portions of the Gulf Coast and Southeast early next week. The inland moisture intrusion combined with the arrival of several troughs within a progressive pattern would suggest the potential for some severe weather. However, there still remains uncertainty in the upper-level pattern with an elongated, positively tilted trough from the GFS which lacks significant cyclogenesis. In contrast, the ECMWF eventually has a negatively tilted trough emerge from the western trough with a surface cyclone, but it strengthens much later across the Great Lakes with much of the mass response disconnected from the better low-level instability. Will continue to monitor the severe weather potential early next week, but uncertainty remains too high to highlight any specific periods at this time. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across portions of central Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will shift slowly east across the southern Plains on Friday. As this occurs, some weak instability will develop as mid-level moisture increases and moves north across central Texas with a modest increase in the low-level jet. Cooling mid-level temperatures may result in some weak instability, sufficient for isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorms. ..Bentley.. 12/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across portions of central Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will shift slowly east across the southern Plains on Friday. As this occurs, some weak instability will develop as mid-level moisture increases and moves north across central Texas with a modest increase in the low-level jet. Cooling mid-level temperatures may result in some weak instability, sufficient for isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorms. ..Bentley.. 12/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across portions of central Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will shift slowly east across the southern Plains on Friday. As this occurs, some weak instability will develop as mid-level moisture increases and moves north across central Texas with a modest increase in the low-level jet. Cooling mid-level temperatures may result in some weak instability, sufficient for isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorms. ..Bentley.. 12/04/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible across portions of central Texas. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will shift slowly east across the southern Plains on Friday. As this occurs, some weak instability will develop as mid-level moisture increases and moves north across central Texas with a modest increase in the low-level jet. Cooling mid-level temperatures may result in some weak instability, sufficient for isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorms. ..Bentley.. 12/04/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will continue to advance eastward across the Northeast on D2 - Thursday as cold upstream air infiltrates the eastern half of the CONUS. Across the western US, a weak midlevel trough will remain over the Southwest with upstream surface high pressure encouraging locally dry/breezy offshore flow across southern CA. Some locally Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, though areas will remain isolated with sparse availability of fuels. This will preclude the need to add areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 12/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will continue to advance eastward across the Northeast on D2 - Thursday as cold upstream air infiltrates the eastern half of the CONUS. Across the western US, a weak midlevel trough will remain over the Southwest with upstream surface high pressure encouraging locally dry/breezy offshore flow across southern CA. Some locally Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, though areas will remain isolated with sparse availability of fuels. This will preclude the need to add areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 12/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will continue to advance eastward across the Northeast on D2 - Thursday as cold upstream air infiltrates the eastern half of the CONUS. Across the western US, a weak midlevel trough will remain over the Southwest with upstream surface high pressure encouraging locally dry/breezy offshore flow across southern CA. Some locally Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, though areas will remain isolated with sparse availability of fuels. This will preclude the need to add areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 12/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will continue to advance eastward across the Northeast on D2 - Thursday as cold upstream air infiltrates the eastern half of the CONUS. Across the western US, a weak midlevel trough will remain over the Southwest with upstream surface high pressure encouraging locally dry/breezy offshore flow across southern CA. Some locally Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, though areas will remain isolated with sparse availability of fuels. This will preclude the need to add areas at this time. ..Thornton.. 12/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will deepen across the eastern US as a cold front drops southward from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes/northeast bringing widespread rain/snowfall. Strong northwesterly flow will be possible behind the passing cold front across the northern Plains. However, cooler temperatures along with moist fuels will keep fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 12/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will deepen across the eastern US as a cold front drops southward from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes/northeast bringing widespread rain/snowfall. Strong northwesterly flow will be possible behind the passing cold front across the northern Plains. However, cooler temperatures along with moist fuels will keep fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 12/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will deepen across the eastern US as a cold front drops southward from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes/northeast bringing widespread rain/snowfall. Strong northwesterly flow will be possible behind the passing cold front across the northern Plains. However, cooler temperatures along with moist fuels will keep fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 12/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CST Wed Dec 04 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A trough will deepen across the eastern US as a cold front drops southward from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes/northeast bringing widespread rain/snowfall. Strong northwesterly flow will be possible behind the passing cold front across the northern Plains. However, cooler temperatures along with moist fuels will keep fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 12/04/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more