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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The only change with this update was the addition of an Elevated area for portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties in southern CA. Here, high-resolution guidance has come into good agreement, depicting 15-20 mph sustained northeasterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 10-15 percent RH. Given the potential for brief/localized critical conditions and substantial fuel loading, the targeted Elevated highlights are warranted. ..Weinman.. 12/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on Friday, as much of the CONUS remains under a cool air mass with widespread precipitation across the eastern US. Weak midlevel trough will remain over the Southwest with upstream surface high pressure encouraging locally dry/breezy offshore flow across southern CA. Some locally Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Areas are expected to remain localized, which will preclude the need to add areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The only change with this update was the addition of an Elevated area for portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties in southern CA. Here, high-resolution guidance has come into good agreement, depicting 15-20 mph sustained northeasterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 10-15 percent RH. Given the potential for brief/localized critical conditions and substantial fuel loading, the targeted Elevated highlights are warranted. ..Weinman.. 12/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on Friday, as much of the CONUS remains under a cool air mass with widespread precipitation across the eastern US. Weak midlevel trough will remain over the Southwest with upstream surface high pressure encouraging locally dry/breezy offshore flow across southern CA. Some locally Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Areas are expected to remain localized, which will preclude the need to add areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z The only change with this update was the addition of an Elevated area for portions of Ventura and Los Angeles Counties in southern CA. Here, high-resolution guidance has come into good agreement, depicting 15-20 mph sustained northeasterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid 10-15 percent RH. Given the potential for brief/localized critical conditions and substantial fuel loading, the targeted Elevated highlights are warranted. ..Weinman.. 12/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1253 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low on Friday, as much of the CONUS remains under a cool air mass with widespread precipitation across the eastern US. Weak midlevel trough will remain over the Southwest with upstream surface high pressure encouraging locally dry/breezy offshore flow across southern CA. Some locally Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Areas are expected to remain localized, which will preclude the need to add areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are likely across a large portion of Texas on Saturday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... An upper low and attendant trough will continue to shift east on Saturday, tracking from the southern Rockies/northern Mexico toward the southern/central Plains. In response, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with this feature will overspread the southern Plains. Boundary layer moisture will remain scant, but moist midlevels and somewhat steep midlevel lapse rates amid large scale ascent will support weak elevated instability. Isolated elevated thunderstorms will be possible across portions of Texas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 12/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are likely across a large portion of Texas on Saturday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... An upper low and attendant trough will continue to shift east on Saturday, tracking from the southern Rockies/northern Mexico toward the southern/central Plains. In response, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with this feature will overspread the southern Plains. Boundary layer moisture will remain scant, but moist midlevels and somewhat steep midlevel lapse rates amid large scale ascent will support weak elevated instability. Isolated elevated thunderstorms will be possible across portions of Texas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 12/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are likely across a large portion of Texas on Saturday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... An upper low and attendant trough will continue to shift east on Saturday, tracking from the southern Rockies/northern Mexico toward the southern/central Plains. In response, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with this feature will overspread the southern Plains. Boundary layer moisture will remain scant, but moist midlevels and somewhat steep midlevel lapse rates amid large scale ascent will support weak elevated instability. Isolated elevated thunderstorms will be possible across portions of Texas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 12/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are likely across a large portion of Texas on Saturday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... An upper low and attendant trough will continue to shift east on Saturday, tracking from the southern Rockies/northern Mexico toward the southern/central Plains. In response, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with this feature will overspread the southern Plains. Boundary layer moisture will remain scant, but moist midlevels and somewhat steep midlevel lapse rates amid large scale ascent will support weak elevated instability. Isolated elevated thunderstorms will be possible across portions of Texas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 12/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are likely across a large portion of Texas on Saturday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... An upper low and attendant trough will continue to shift east on Saturday, tracking from the southern Rockies/northern Mexico toward the southern/central Plains. In response, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with this feature will overspread the southern Plains. Boundary layer moisture will remain scant, but moist midlevels and somewhat steep midlevel lapse rates amid large scale ascent will support weak elevated instability. Isolated elevated thunderstorms will be possible across portions of Texas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 12/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1250 PM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered thunderstorms are likely across a large portion of Texas on Saturday. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... An upper low and attendant trough will continue to shift east on Saturday, tracking from the southern Rockies/northern Mexico toward the southern/central Plains. In response, enhanced deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with this feature will overspread the southern Plains. Boundary layer moisture will remain scant, but moist midlevels and somewhat steep midlevel lapse rates amid large scale ascent will support weak elevated instability. Isolated elevated thunderstorms will be possible across portions of Texas. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 12/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from southeast New Mexico to central Texas. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... The upper low and attendant trough over AZ and northwest Mexico will slowly pivot eastward on Friday. As modestly enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow overspreads portions of the southern Rockies and TX, midlevel moisture also will increase. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will support weak elevated instability, and isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of southern NM into central TX. Severe potential is expected to remain low. ..Leitman.. 12/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from southeast New Mexico to central Texas. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... The upper low and attendant trough over AZ and northwest Mexico will slowly pivot eastward on Friday. As modestly enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow overspreads portions of the southern Rockies and TX, midlevel moisture also will increase. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will support weak elevated instability, and isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of southern NM into central TX. Severe potential is expected to remain low. ..Leitman.. 12/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from southeast New Mexico to central Texas. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... The upper low and attendant trough over AZ and northwest Mexico will slowly pivot eastward on Friday. As modestly enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow overspreads portions of the southern Rockies and TX, midlevel moisture also will increase. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will support weak elevated instability, and isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of southern NM into central TX. Severe potential is expected to remain low. ..Leitman.. 12/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from southeast New Mexico to central Texas. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... The upper low and attendant trough over AZ and northwest Mexico will slowly pivot eastward on Friday. As modestly enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow overspreads portions of the southern Rockies and TX, midlevel moisture also will increase. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will support weak elevated instability, and isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of southern NM into central TX. Severe potential is expected to remain low. ..Leitman.. 12/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from southeast New Mexico to central Texas. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... The upper low and attendant trough over AZ and northwest Mexico will slowly pivot eastward on Friday. As modestly enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow overspreads portions of the southern Rockies and TX, midlevel moisture also will increase. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will support weak elevated instability, and isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of southern NM into central TX. Severe potential is expected to remain low. ..Leitman.. 12/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from southeast New Mexico to central Texas. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... The upper low and attendant trough over AZ and northwest Mexico will slowly pivot eastward on Friday. As modestly enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow overspreads portions of the southern Rockies and TX, midlevel moisture also will increase. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will support weak elevated instability, and isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of southern NM into central TX. Severe potential is expected to remain low. ..Leitman.. 12/05/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1054 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible from southeast New Mexico to central Texas. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... The upper low and attendant trough over AZ and northwest Mexico will slowly pivot eastward on Friday. As modestly enhanced midlevel southwesterly flow overspreads portions of the southern Rockies and TX, midlevel moisture also will increase. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will support weak elevated instability, and isolated thunderstorms are possible across parts of southern NM into central TX. Severe potential is expected to remain low. ..Leitman.. 12/05/2024 Read more

MD 2250 CONCERNING SNOW SQUALL FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST
Mesoscale Discussion 2250 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0850 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Areas affected...parts of the Northeast Concerning...Snow Squall Valid 051450Z - 051715Z SUMMARY...Multiple clusters and loosely banded snow squalls may persist east into early afternoon, mainly across the southern half of New York into northern parts of Pennsylvania and New Jersey. DISCUSSION...Near a low-level cyclone centered just north of the Binghamton area, scattered bursts of heavy snow are ongoing across parts of southern NY into northeast PA, where surface temperatures have fallen below freezing along the leading edge of stronger westerly winds. Upstream, a lake-induced hybrid squall is ongoing across western NY into northwest PA where more widespread quarter-mile visibilities have been observed. Per 12Z CAM guidance, both areas should move east into midday. The western area will be replaced by a lake-effect snow band this afternoon, connected from the southern portion of Lake Huron to the eastern part of Lake Erie within a west-northwesterly flow regime. Surface temperatures will remain marginal for snow-squall conditions along the southern/eastern portion of the region (near the I-95 corridor). ..Grams.. 12/05/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP... LAT...LON 42997377 41897358 41397393 41027426 40917449 40917488 41487585 41557761 41527865 41957923 42677830 43047747 43267624 43277469 42997377 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible this afternoon along/immediately behind a cold front moving across portions of far southeast VA, the Carolinas, and northeast GA. Here, breezy west-northwesterly surface winds (sustained around 15-20 mph) will briefly overlap 25-30 percent RH. However, a limited spatial and temporal overlap of the dry/breezy conditions should limit the overall threat. ..Weinman.. 12/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northeast today as cold upstream air infiltrates the eastern US. Across the western US, a weak midlevel trough will remain over the Southwest with upstream surface high pressure encouraging locally dry/breezy offshore flow across southern CA. Some locally Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, though areas will remain isolated with sparse availability of fuels. This will preclude the need to add areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible this afternoon along/immediately behind a cold front moving across portions of far southeast VA, the Carolinas, and northeast GA. Here, breezy west-northwesterly surface winds (sustained around 15-20 mph) will briefly overlap 25-30 percent RH. However, a limited spatial and temporal overlap of the dry/breezy conditions should limit the overall threat. ..Weinman.. 12/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northeast today as cold upstream air infiltrates the eastern US. Across the western US, a weak midlevel trough will remain over the Southwest with upstream surface high pressure encouraging locally dry/breezy offshore flow across southern CA. Some locally Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, though areas will remain isolated with sparse availability of fuels. This will preclude the need to add areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1053 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024 Valid 051700Z - 061200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were needed with this update. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions are also possible this afternoon along/immediately behind a cold front moving across portions of far southeast VA, the Carolinas, and northeast GA. Here, breezy west-northwesterly surface winds (sustained around 15-20 mph) will briefly overlap 25-30 percent RH. However, a limited spatial and temporal overlap of the dry/breezy conditions should limit the overall threat. ..Weinman.. 12/05/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1252 AM CST Thu Dec 05 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance eastward across the Northeast today as cold upstream air infiltrates the eastern US. Across the western US, a weak midlevel trough will remain over the Southwest with upstream surface high pressure encouraging locally dry/breezy offshore flow across southern CA. Some locally Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible, though areas will remain isolated with sparse availability of fuels. This will preclude the need to add areas at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more