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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Forecast guidance has come to a consensus for a cut off low which will dominate the weather for much of the central and eastern CONUS by the middle of this week. In addition, there is some potential for tropical development which may eventually merge with this upper low later this week. As this pattern evolves across the eastern CONUS, ridging will build across the western CONUS. Some warmer conditions are anticipated, however, winds are expected to be light across areas with dry fuels. The only period with even elevated fire-weather conditions forecast is on Day4/Wednesday when some dry and breezy conditions may develop in the lee of the northern Sierra/southern Cascades as a mid-level trough moves through the Pacific Northwest. However, fuels are not critically dry in this region. Therefore, only elevated conditions forecast at this time and unreceptive fuels preclude the need for any critical probabilities given the potential for fire-weather concerns is too low. ..Bentley.. 09/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Forecast guidance has come to a consensus for a cut off low which will dominate the weather for much of the central and eastern CONUS by the middle of this week. In addition, there is some potential for tropical development which may eventually merge with this upper low later this week. As this pattern evolves across the eastern CONUS, ridging will build across the western CONUS. Some warmer conditions are anticipated, however, winds are expected to be light across areas with dry fuels. The only period with even elevated fire-weather conditions forecast is on Day4/Wednesday when some dry and breezy conditions may develop in the lee of the northern Sierra/southern Cascades as a mid-level trough moves through the Pacific Northwest. However, fuels are not critically dry in this region. Therefore, only elevated conditions forecast at this time and unreceptive fuels preclude the need for any critical probabilities given the potential for fire-weather concerns is too low. ..Bentley.. 09/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Forecast guidance has come to a consensus for a cut off low which will dominate the weather for much of the central and eastern CONUS by the middle of this week. In addition, there is some potential for tropical development which may eventually merge with this upper low later this week. As this pattern evolves across the eastern CONUS, ridging will build across the western CONUS. Some warmer conditions are anticipated, however, winds are expected to be light across areas with dry fuels. The only period with even elevated fire-weather conditions forecast is on Day4/Wednesday when some dry and breezy conditions may develop in the lee of the northern Sierra/southern Cascades as a mid-level trough moves through the Pacific Northwest. However, fuels are not critically dry in this region. Therefore, only elevated conditions forecast at this time and unreceptive fuels preclude the need for any critical probabilities given the potential for fire-weather concerns is too low. ..Bentley.. 09/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Forecast guidance has come to a consensus for a cut off low which will dominate the weather for much of the central and eastern CONUS by the middle of this week. In addition, there is some potential for tropical development which may eventually merge with this upper low later this week. As this pattern evolves across the eastern CONUS, ridging will build across the western CONUS. Some warmer conditions are anticipated, however, winds are expected to be light across areas with dry fuels. The only period with even elevated fire-weather conditions forecast is on Day4/Wednesday when some dry and breezy conditions may develop in the lee of the northern Sierra/southern Cascades as a mid-level trough moves through the Pacific Northwest. However, fuels are not critically dry in this region. Therefore, only elevated conditions forecast at this time and unreceptive fuels preclude the need for any critical probabilities given the potential for fire-weather concerns is too low. ..Bentley.. 09/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Forecast guidance has come to a consensus for a cut off low which will dominate the weather for much of the central and eastern CONUS by the middle of this week. In addition, there is some potential for tropical development which may eventually merge with this upper low later this week. As this pattern evolves across the eastern CONUS, ridging will build across the western CONUS. Some warmer conditions are anticipated, however, winds are expected to be light across areas with dry fuels. The only period with even elevated fire-weather conditions forecast is on Day4/Wednesday when some dry and breezy conditions may develop in the lee of the northern Sierra/southern Cascades as a mid-level trough moves through the Pacific Northwest. However, fuels are not critically dry in this region. Therefore, only elevated conditions forecast at this time and unreceptive fuels preclude the need for any critical probabilities given the potential for fire-weather concerns is too low. ..Bentley.. 09/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0416 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 301200Z Forecast guidance has come to a consensus for a cut off low which will dominate the weather for much of the central and eastern CONUS by the middle of this week. In addition, there is some potential for tropical development which may eventually merge with this upper low later this week. As this pattern evolves across the eastern CONUS, ridging will build across the western CONUS. Some warmer conditions are anticipated, however, winds are expected to be light across areas with dry fuels. The only period with even elevated fire-weather conditions forecast is on Day4/Wednesday when some dry and breezy conditions may develop in the lee of the northern Sierra/southern Cascades as a mid-level trough moves through the Pacific Northwest. However, fuels are not critically dry in this region. Therefore, only elevated conditions forecast at this time and unreceptive fuels preclude the need for any critical probabilities given the potential for fire-weather concerns is too low. ..Bentley.. 09/22/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Sep 22 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 222057 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 PM CST Sun Sep 22 2024 Convection has gradually become better organized today in association with an area of low pressure that the NHC has been monitoring off the coast of southern Mexico. A recent scatterometer pass shows the circulation is closed, with a well-defined center and peak winds of about 30 kt over the southern semicircle. Therefore, a new tropical depression has formed in the eastern Pacific basin. The depression is nearly stationary, but a slow northeastward drift is expected to begin later tonight. The track forecast is challenging, as there is a large spread in the guidance regarding the potential path of the system. Much of the track guidance shows the system moving generally east-northeastward as it becomes captured within the broader circulation of a developing Central American Gyre. However, a couple of global models (ECMWF and UKMET) instead show a northward drift over the next couple of days. The NHC track forecast favors the first scenario, and generally lies between the simple and corrected consensus aids. However, this track forecast is of low confidence given the large spread in the models, and adjustments will likely be required with future issuances. The moist, unstable environment and very warm waters should be conducive for some strengthening of the system during the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast lies between the IVCN and HCCA aids, but it should be noted that there are some models indicating the system could reach hurricane strength. While this is not explicitly forecast, it certainly cannot be ruled out given the environmental and oceanic conditions, and interests along the coast of southern Mexico should monitor the latest forecast updates. The peak intensity of the system will be highly dependent on how long the cyclone remains over water before reaching the coast, which is quite uncertain given the track challenges described above. Based on this forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the southern coast of Mexico from Punta Maldonado to Salina Cruz. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Slow-moving Tropical Depression Ten-E will bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southern and southwestern Mexico through the upcoming week. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of significant flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas and Oaxaca, particularly in areas near the coast. 2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm while moving near the coast of southern Mexico on Monday or Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for a portion of the coastline, where tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday. 3. The system could strengthen more than forecast if it remains over water. Interests along the coast of southern Mexico should monitor the latest forecast updates, as a Hurricane Watch could be required for a portion of the coastline later tonight or on Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 13.8N 98.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 14.0N 98.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 14.4N 98.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 14.8N 97.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 15.0N 96.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 25/0600Z 15.3N 95.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 16.1N 94.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 17.1N 92.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 120H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2024 20:52:02 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 22 Sep 2024 21:23:36 GMT

Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Sep 22 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 222050 TCDEP5 Tropical Depression Ten-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 PM CST Sun Sep 22 2024 Convection has gradually become better organized today in association with an area of low pressure that the NHC has been monitoring off the coast of southern Mexico. A recent scatterometer pass shows the circulation is closed, with a well-defined center and peak winds of about 30 kt over the southern semicircle. Therefore, a new tropical depression has formed in the eastern Pacific basin. The depression is nearly stationary, but a slow northeastward drift is expected to begin later tonight. The track forecast is challenging, as there is a large spread in the guidance regarding the potential path of the system. Much of the track guidance shows the system moving generally east-northeastward as it becomes captured within the broader circulation of a developing Central American Gyre. However, a couple of global models (ECMWF and UKMET) instead show a northward drift over the next couple of days. The NHC track forecast favors the first scenario, and generally lies between the simple and corrected consensus aids. However, this track forecast is of low confidence given the large spread in the models, and adjustments will likely be required with future issuances. The moist, unstable environment and very warm waters should be conducive for some strengthening of the system during the next couple of days. The NHC intensity forecast lies between the IVCN and HCCA aids, but it should be noted that there are some models indicating the system could reach hurricane strength. While this is not explicitly forecast, it certainly cannot be ruled out given the environmental and oceanic conditions, and interests along the coast of southern Mexico should monitor the latest forecast updates. The peak intensity of the system will be highly dependent on how long the cyclone remains over water before reaching the coast, which is quite uncertain given the track challenges described above. Based on this forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the southern coast of Mexico from Punta Maldonado to Salina Cruz. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Slow moving Tropical Depression Ten will bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southern and southwestern Mexico through the upcoming week. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of significant flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas and Oaxaca, particularly in areas near the coast. 2. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm while moving near the coast of southern Mexico on Monday or Tuesday. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for a portion of the coastline, where tropical storm conditions could begin on Tuesday. 3. The system could strengthen more than forecast if it remains over water. Interests along the coast of southern Mexico should monitor the latest forecast updates, as a Hurricane Watch could be required for a portion of the coastline later tonight or on Monday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 13.8N 98.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 14.0N 98.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 14.4N 98.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 14.8N 97.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 24/1800Z 15.0N 96.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 25/0600Z 15.3N 95.6W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 25/1800Z 16.1N 94.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 26/1800Z 17.1N 92.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 120H 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 222050 PWSEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 100W 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ACAPULCO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P MALDONADO 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) P ANGEL 34 X 3( 3) 10(13) 14(27) 9(36) 1(37) X(37) P ANGEL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P ANGEL 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) HUATULCO 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 4(12) 1(13) X(13) 15N 95W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 11(16) 28(44) 1(45) X(45) 15N 95W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 1(14) X(14) 15N 95W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SALINA CRUZ 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) TAPACHULA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 300 PM CST Sun Sep 22 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 222050 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Ten-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 300 PM CST Sun Sep 22 2024 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 300 PM CST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.8N 98.7W ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the southern coast of Mexico from Punta Maldonado to Salina Cruz. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Salina Cruz For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM CST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Ten-E was located near latitude 13.8 North, longitude 98.7 West. The depression is nearly stationary, but a slow northeastward motion is expected to begin later tonight and Monday. A northeastward to east-northeastward motion is anticipated on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move near the southern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. Satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next few days while the center of the system remains over water. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Through Thursday, the depression is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast, between 10 and 20 inches of rain can be expected through Thursday, with localized higher amounts near 30 inches. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area beginning on Tuesday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 3:00 PM CST Sun Sep 22 the center of Ten-E was located near 13.8, -98.7 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 222049 TCMEP5 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 2100 UTC SUN SEP 22 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 98.7W AT 22/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT STATIONARY ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 98.7W AT 22/2100Z AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 98.7W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 14.0N 98.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 14.4N 98.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 14.8N 97.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 10SE 10SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 15.0N 96.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 15.3N 95.6W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 16.1N 94.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 30SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 17.1N 92.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 98.7W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 23/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from southwest/west Texas to western Kentucky. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no adjustments required. Convection across West Texas into central Oklahoma continues to intensify per GOES IR imagery with further intensification probable through late afternoon. In general, the Texas Low Rolling Plains and portions of Ozarks remain relatively more favorable for organized severe convection due to better diurnal destabilization (MLCAPE has increased to 1500-2000 J/kg) along and ahead of the front, but instances of sporadic hail/damaging gusts remain possible across northwest TX into OK. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/ ...West Texas to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley... Within a split flow regime, a southern-stream shortwave trough will continue generally eastward while tending to weaken over the south-central High Plains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain common near an east/southeastward-moving cold front that extends from Lake Michigan southwestward across the middle Mississippi Valley, with convection also occurring along/behind the south/southeastward-moving portion of the front that extends from the Ozarks across Oklahoma toward west/southwest Texas. Outflows and cloud cover extending into the pre-frontal warm sector will be factors, but somewhat stronger destabilization (possibly 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) may occur by peak heating in areas such as the Texas Low Rolling Plains/Permian Basin, and potentially parts of the Ozarks. Moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will largely parallel the frontal zone, with near/pre-frontal effective shear limited to 20-30 kt, with an exception being the elevated convection from west/northwest Texas into Oklahoma where some stronger cores could produce hail in the post-frontal environment. Where storms intensify near the front this afternoon, strong to locally damaging wind gusts (50-60 mph) and some hail (up to around 1 inch in diameter) will be possible through the early part of the evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from southwest/west Texas to western Kentucky. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no adjustments required. Convection across West Texas into central Oklahoma continues to intensify per GOES IR imagery with further intensification probable through late afternoon. In general, the Texas Low Rolling Plains and portions of Ozarks remain relatively more favorable for organized severe convection due to better diurnal destabilization (MLCAPE has increased to 1500-2000 J/kg) along and ahead of the front, but instances of sporadic hail/damaging gusts remain possible across northwest TX into OK. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/ ...West Texas to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley... Within a split flow regime, a southern-stream shortwave trough will continue generally eastward while tending to weaken over the south-central High Plains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain common near an east/southeastward-moving cold front that extends from Lake Michigan southwestward across the middle Mississippi Valley, with convection also occurring along/behind the south/southeastward-moving portion of the front that extends from the Ozarks across Oklahoma toward west/southwest Texas. Outflows and cloud cover extending into the pre-frontal warm sector will be factors, but somewhat stronger destabilization (possibly 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) may occur by peak heating in areas such as the Texas Low Rolling Plains/Permian Basin, and potentially parts of the Ozarks. Moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will largely parallel the frontal zone, with near/pre-frontal effective shear limited to 20-30 kt, with an exception being the elevated convection from west/northwest Texas into Oklahoma where some stronger cores could produce hail in the post-frontal environment. Where storms intensify near the front this afternoon, strong to locally damaging wind gusts (50-60 mph) and some hail (up to around 1 inch in diameter) will be possible through the early part of the evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from southwest/west Texas to western Kentucky. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no adjustments required. Convection across West Texas into central Oklahoma continues to intensify per GOES IR imagery with further intensification probable through late afternoon. In general, the Texas Low Rolling Plains and portions of Ozarks remain relatively more favorable for organized severe convection due to better diurnal destabilization (MLCAPE has increased to 1500-2000 J/kg) along and ahead of the front, but instances of sporadic hail/damaging gusts remain possible across northwest TX into OK. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/ ...West Texas to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley... Within a split flow regime, a southern-stream shortwave trough will continue generally eastward while tending to weaken over the south-central High Plains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain common near an east/southeastward-moving cold front that extends from Lake Michigan southwestward across the middle Mississippi Valley, with convection also occurring along/behind the south/southeastward-moving portion of the front that extends from the Ozarks across Oklahoma toward west/southwest Texas. Outflows and cloud cover extending into the pre-frontal warm sector will be factors, but somewhat stronger destabilization (possibly 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) may occur by peak heating in areas such as the Texas Low Rolling Plains/Permian Basin, and potentially parts of the Ozarks. Moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will largely parallel the frontal zone, with near/pre-frontal effective shear limited to 20-30 kt, with an exception being the elevated convection from west/northwest Texas into Oklahoma where some stronger cores could produce hail in the post-frontal environment. Where storms intensify near the front this afternoon, strong to locally damaging wind gusts (50-60 mph) and some hail (up to around 1 inch in diameter) will be possible through the early part of the evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from southwest/west Texas to western Kentucky. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no adjustments required. Convection across West Texas into central Oklahoma continues to intensify per GOES IR imagery with further intensification probable through late afternoon. In general, the Texas Low Rolling Plains and portions of Ozarks remain relatively more favorable for organized severe convection due to better diurnal destabilization (MLCAPE has increased to 1500-2000 J/kg) along and ahead of the front, but instances of sporadic hail/damaging gusts remain possible across northwest TX into OK. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/ ...West Texas to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley... Within a split flow regime, a southern-stream shortwave trough will continue generally eastward while tending to weaken over the south-central High Plains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain common near an east/southeastward-moving cold front that extends from Lake Michigan southwestward across the middle Mississippi Valley, with convection also occurring along/behind the south/southeastward-moving portion of the front that extends from the Ozarks across Oklahoma toward west/southwest Texas. Outflows and cloud cover extending into the pre-frontal warm sector will be factors, but somewhat stronger destabilization (possibly 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) may occur by peak heating in areas such as the Texas Low Rolling Plains/Permian Basin, and potentially parts of the Ozarks. Moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will largely parallel the frontal zone, with near/pre-frontal effective shear limited to 20-30 kt, with an exception being the elevated convection from west/northwest Texas into Oklahoma where some stronger cores could produce hail in the post-frontal environment. Where storms intensify near the front this afternoon, strong to locally damaging wind gusts (50-60 mph) and some hail (up to around 1 inch in diameter) will be possible through the early part of the evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from southwest/west Texas to western Kentucky. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no adjustments required. Convection across West Texas into central Oklahoma continues to intensify per GOES IR imagery with further intensification probable through late afternoon. In general, the Texas Low Rolling Plains and portions of Ozarks remain relatively more favorable for organized severe convection due to better diurnal destabilization (MLCAPE has increased to 1500-2000 J/kg) along and ahead of the front, but instances of sporadic hail/damaging gusts remain possible across northwest TX into OK. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/ ...West Texas to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley... Within a split flow regime, a southern-stream shortwave trough will continue generally eastward while tending to weaken over the south-central High Plains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain common near an east/southeastward-moving cold front that extends from Lake Michigan southwestward across the middle Mississippi Valley, with convection also occurring along/behind the south/southeastward-moving portion of the front that extends from the Ozarks across Oklahoma toward west/southwest Texas. Outflows and cloud cover extending into the pre-frontal warm sector will be factors, but somewhat stronger destabilization (possibly 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) may occur by peak heating in areas such as the Texas Low Rolling Plains/Permian Basin, and potentially parts of the Ozarks. Moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will largely parallel the frontal zone, with near/pre-frontal effective shear limited to 20-30 kt, with an exception being the elevated convection from west/northwest Texas into Oklahoma where some stronger cores could produce hail in the post-frontal environment. Where storms intensify near the front this afternoon, strong to locally damaging wind gusts (50-60 mph) and some hail (up to around 1 inch in diameter) will be possible through the early part of the evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 222000Z - 231200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible from southwest/west Texas to western Kentucky. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no adjustments required. Convection across West Texas into central Oklahoma continues to intensify per GOES IR imagery with further intensification probable through late afternoon. In general, the Texas Low Rolling Plains and portions of Ozarks remain relatively more favorable for organized severe convection due to better diurnal destabilization (MLCAPE has increased to 1500-2000 J/kg) along and ahead of the front, but instances of sporadic hail/damaging gusts remain possible across northwest TX into OK. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 09/22/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024/ ...West Texas to the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley... Within a split flow regime, a southern-stream shortwave trough will continue generally eastward while tending to weaken over the south-central High Plains. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain common near an east/southeastward-moving cold front that extends from Lake Michigan southwestward across the middle Mississippi Valley, with convection also occurring along/behind the south/southeastward-moving portion of the front that extends from the Ozarks across Oklahoma toward west/southwest Texas. Outflows and cloud cover extending into the pre-frontal warm sector will be factors, but somewhat stronger destabilization (possibly 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) may occur by peak heating in areas such as the Texas Low Rolling Plains/Permian Basin, and potentially parts of the Ozarks. Moderately strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will largely parallel the frontal zone, with near/pre-frontal effective shear limited to 20-30 kt, with an exception being the elevated convection from west/northwest Texas into Oklahoma where some stronger cores could produce hail in the post-frontal environment. Where storms intensify near the front this afternoon, strong to locally damaging wind gusts (50-60 mph) and some hail (up to around 1 inch in diameter) will be possible through the early part of the evening. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... Broad troughing aloft will continue over much of the northern/central Plains into the Midwest on Tuesday. A lead shortwave perturbation will initially be located in the Ozarks/lower Ohio Valley region and move northeastward and weaken with time. In the Plains, another shortwave perturbation will dig southward into the southern Plains by Wednesday morning. This feature will get cut off from the stronger upper-level flow in the Upper Great Lakes. Overall, a generally weakening upper-level system will promote weak to modest height falls across parts of the Tennessee Valley with a weak cold front/surface low moving slowly eastward with time. ...Tennessee Valley... Early day precipitation potential will again be possible. The location and degree of surface destabilization remains in question. It is possible for a few storms to develop during the afternoon along the cold front. Mid-level flow will be sufficient for modest storm organization in the strongest storms. However, continued poor mid-level lapse rates and lack of focused forcing for ascent leaves coverage of potentially severe storms in doubt. While a conditional threat for isolated large hail and damaging winds may develop, severe probabilities will be withheld and trends in guidance will continue to be monitored. ..Wendt.. 09/22/2024 Read more