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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... Some severe potential may develop over parts of the South/Southeast on Day 4/Thu in relation to the potential tropical cyclone currently over the western Caribbean. Uncertainty in the evolution/track of this system precludes severe probabilities at this time. Beyond Day 4/Thu, increasing spread among forecast guidance and a somewhat anomalous mid/upper level pattern lends to low predictability. However, while uncertainty exists regarding the overall evolution of an eastern upper trough/cut-off cyclone, severe potential in general appears low given potential for widespread rainfall along with poor lapse rates/instability. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is uncertain, but limited, on Wednesday. ...Southeast into the central Appalachians... Forecast uncertainty is quite high for Day 3/Wed. The evolution of the upper trough over the Upper Midwest/MS Valley early in the day is varied across forecast guidance. A northern stream upper shortwave trough will probably migrate across the Great Lakes. The southern stream of this trough may develop a closed low over the Mid-South into the lower OH/TN Valley vicinity. Meanwhile, the tropical disturbance currently over the western Caribbean is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday per latest NHC guidance. The track of this feature is also uncertain and will be influenced by the evolution of the aforementioned upper trough. Some tropical cyclone related tornado risk could develop across the west coast of FL, but given the high degree of uncertainty at this time, will hold off on introducing a Marginal risk. Otherwise, a moist warm sector will exist across much of the Gulf coast states into parts oft he central Appalachians as moderate deep-layer south/southwesterly flow streams over the region. Precipitation will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning, resulting in uncertainty in daytime destabilization across the region. Some low-end severe thunderstorm potential may evolve, but uncertainty is too great to include probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is uncertain, but limited, on Wednesday. ...Southeast into the central Appalachians... Forecast uncertainty is quite high for Day 3/Wed. The evolution of the upper trough over the Upper Midwest/MS Valley early in the day is varied across forecast guidance. A northern stream upper shortwave trough will probably migrate across the Great Lakes. The southern stream of this trough may develop a closed low over the Mid-South into the lower OH/TN Valley vicinity. Meanwhile, the tropical disturbance currently over the western Caribbean is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday per latest NHC guidance. The track of this feature is also uncertain and will be influenced by the evolution of the aforementioned upper trough. Some tropical cyclone related tornado risk could develop across the west coast of FL, but given the high degree of uncertainty at this time, will hold off on introducing a Marginal risk. Otherwise, a moist warm sector will exist across much of the Gulf coast states into parts oft he central Appalachians as moderate deep-layer south/southwesterly flow streams over the region. Precipitation will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning, resulting in uncertainty in daytime destabilization across the region. Some low-end severe thunderstorm potential may evolve, but uncertainty is too great to include probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is uncertain, but limited, on Wednesday. ...Southeast into the central Appalachians... Forecast uncertainty is quite high for Day 3/Wed. The evolution of the upper trough over the Upper Midwest/MS Valley early in the day is varied across forecast guidance. A northern stream upper shortwave trough will probably migrate across the Great Lakes. The southern stream of this trough may develop a closed low over the Mid-South into the lower OH/TN Valley vicinity. Meanwhile, the tropical disturbance currently over the western Caribbean is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday per latest NHC guidance. The track of this feature is also uncertain and will be influenced by the evolution of the aforementioned upper trough. Some tropical cyclone related tornado risk could develop across the west coast of FL, but given the high degree of uncertainty at this time, will hold off on introducing a Marginal risk. Otherwise, a moist warm sector will exist across much of the Gulf coast states into parts oft he central Appalachians as moderate deep-layer south/southwesterly flow streams over the region. Precipitation will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning, resulting in uncertainty in daytime destabilization across the region. Some low-end severe thunderstorm potential may evolve, but uncertainty is too great to include probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is uncertain, but limited, on Wednesday. ...Southeast into the central Appalachians... Forecast uncertainty is quite high for Day 3/Wed. The evolution of the upper trough over the Upper Midwest/MS Valley early in the day is varied across forecast guidance. A northern stream upper shortwave trough will probably migrate across the Great Lakes. The southern stream of this trough may develop a closed low over the Mid-South into the lower OH/TN Valley vicinity. Meanwhile, the tropical disturbance currently over the western Caribbean is likely to develop into a tropical cyclone by Wednesday per latest NHC guidance. The track of this feature is also uncertain and will be influenced by the evolution of the aforementioned upper trough. Some tropical cyclone related tornado risk could develop across the west coast of FL, but given the high degree of uncertainty at this time, will hold off on introducing a Marginal risk. Otherwise, a moist warm sector will exist across much of the Gulf coast states into parts oft he central Appalachians as moderate deep-layer south/southwesterly flow streams over the region. Precipitation will likely be ongoing Wednesday morning, resulting in uncertainty in daytime destabilization across the region. Some low-end severe thunderstorm potential may evolve, but uncertainty is too great to include probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on Tuesday across the CONUS. A ridge will build in across the western US, with dry and warming conditions amid generally light winds. Longwave troughing will deepen across the Plains, with some post-frontal northwesterly breezes across the High Plains. Overall, cool conditions will keep relative humidity values high and there is potential for wetting rainfall Monday into Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 09/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on Tuesday across the CONUS. A ridge will build in across the western US, with dry and warming conditions amid generally light winds. Longwave troughing will deepen across the Plains, with some post-frontal northwesterly breezes across the High Plains. Overall, cool conditions will keep relative humidity values high and there is potential for wetting rainfall Monday into Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 09/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on Tuesday across the CONUS. A ridge will build in across the western US, with dry and warming conditions amid generally light winds. Longwave troughing will deepen across the Plains, with some post-frontal northwesterly breezes across the High Plains. Overall, cool conditions will keep relative humidity values high and there is potential for wetting rainfall Monday into Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 09/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on Tuesday across the CONUS. A ridge will build in across the western US, with dry and warming conditions amid generally light winds. Longwave troughing will deepen across the Plains, with some post-frontal northwesterly breezes across the High Plains. Overall, cool conditions will keep relative humidity values high and there is potential for wetting rainfall Monday into Tuesday. ..Thornton.. 09/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low today across the CONUS. Across the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with warming conditions. Dry conditions are expected across the southwest, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 09/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low today across the CONUS. Across the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with warming conditions. Dry conditions are expected across the southwest, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 09/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low today across the CONUS. Across the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with warming conditions. Dry conditions are expected across the southwest, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 09/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low today across the CONUS. Across the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with warming conditions. Dry conditions are expected across the southwest, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ..Thornton.. 09/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 05:40:01 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 03:24:07 GMT

Issued at 1200 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 933 WTPZ35 KNHC 230539 CCA TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm John Intermediate Advisory Number 2A...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 1200 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 Corrected to add size of tropical storm force winds ...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM JOHN... ...LIKELY TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO EARLY THIS WEEK... SUMMARY OF 1200 AM CST...0600 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.1N 98.5W ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Salina Cruz For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 AM CST (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was located near latitude 14.1 North, longitude 98.5 West. The system has been recently drifting northward, but a slow north-northeastward motion is expected to begin later today. A northeastward to east-northeastward motion is then anticipated on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to move near the southern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days until landfall. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km/h) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Through Thursday, John is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with John (formerly Tropical Depression Ten-E), please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep10.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within portions of the watch area beginning on Tuesday. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to begin to affect the coast of southern Mexico later today, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of the week. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Blake

...DEPRESSION BECOMES TROPICAL STORM JOHN... ...LIKELY TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING TO PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO EARLY THIS WEEK... As of 12:00 AM CST Mon Sep 23 the center of John was located near 14.1, -98.5 with movement Stationary. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 230535
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Sep 22 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm John, located just south of southern
Mexico.

Central Portion of the East Pacific:
Showers and thunderstorm activity has diminished somewhat with a
trough of low pressure located several hundred miles west-southwest
of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions only appear
marginally favorable for slow development of this system as it
moves slowly eastward to the south of the coast of Mexico through
the middle of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm John are issued under WMO
header WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm John are issued under
WMO header WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Papin

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 05:33:05 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 03:24:07 GMT

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. ...OH/TN Valleys toward the Central/Southern Appalachians... A complicated/messy scenario is unfolding for severe potential on Tuesday. Most 00z CAMs and deterministic guidance suggests potentially widespread convection may be ongoing Tuesday morning across the Ohio Valley vicinity. This will limit heating and destabilization across a broad warm sector ahead of an eastward-advancing surface cold front. Nevertheless, a deepening mid/upper trough will slowly shift east from eastern portions of the central/southern Plains toward the MS River. Strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region, providing support for organized convection, with a mix clusters and line segments possible. Given uncertainty due to morning convection and subsequent airmass destabilization, as well has some disagreement in timing of the mid/upper trough, have introduced a rather broad Marginal risk (level 1 of 5). Some refinement of this area, and/or potential upgrades may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence sufficiently increases in a more favorable/focused corridor of severe potential. Where stronger heating/destabilization can occur, damaging gusts will be possible. ..Leitman.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS TOWARD THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. ...OH/TN Valleys toward the Central/Southern Appalachians... A complicated/messy scenario is unfolding for severe potential on Tuesday. Most 00z CAMs and deterministic guidance suggests potentially widespread convection may be ongoing Tuesday morning across the Ohio Valley vicinity. This will limit heating and destabilization across a broad warm sector ahead of an eastward-advancing surface cold front. Nevertheless, a deepening mid/upper trough will slowly shift east from eastern portions of the central/southern Plains toward the MS River. Strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow will overspread the region, providing support for organized convection, with a mix clusters and line segments possible. Given uncertainty due to morning convection and subsequent airmass destabilization, as well has some disagreement in timing of the mid/upper trough, have introduced a rather broad Marginal risk (level 1 of 5). Some refinement of this area, and/or potential upgrades may be needed in subsequent outlooks if confidence sufficiently increases in a more favorable/focused corridor of severe potential. Where stronger heating/destabilization can occur, damaging gusts will be possible. ..Leitman.. 09/23/2024 Read more