Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 231757
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 23 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane John, located just south of southern Mexico.

East-Central Portion of the East Pacific:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
southwestern Mexico is producing limited shower and thunderstorm
activity. Environmental conditions only appear marginally favorable
for gradual development of this system while it moves slowly
eastward to the south of the coast of Mexico through the middle of
this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Hurricane John are issued under WMO header
WTPZ35 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP5.
Forecast/Advisories on Hurricane John are issued under WMO header
WTPZ25 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP5.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 1800 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 231756 TCMEP5 HURRICANE JOHN SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 1800 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 98.4W AT 23/1800Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 5 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 75SE 75SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 98.4W AT 23/1800Z AT 23/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 98.6W FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 15.3N 98.2W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 15.8N 97.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 60SE 60SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 16.1N 97.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 5NE 10SE 10SW 5NW. 50 KT... 15NE 20SE 20SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 80SE 80SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 16.3N 97.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 40SE 30SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.1N 98.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 23/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 1200 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 231756 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane John Special Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 1200 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 ...JOHN CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AND FORECAST TO BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE... ...DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE, AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING EXPECTED IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 98.4W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning from west of Punta Maldonado to Acapulco. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Bahias de Huatulco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz * West of Punta Maldonado to Acapulco A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 h. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 98.4 West. John is moving toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow motion to the north-northeast or northeast is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to approach the southern coast of Mexico tonight, and move inland on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and John is expected to become a major hurricane before the center reaches the coast of southern Mexico on Tuesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for John can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Through Thursday, John is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected to reach the coast within the hurricane warning area tonight or early Tuesday morning. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength later today, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the tropical storm warning area early Tuesday. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of days, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of the week. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 1145 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTPZ65 KNHC 231747 TCUEP5 Hurricane John Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 1145 AM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 Satellite imagery indicates that John continues to rapidly strengthen with estimated maximum sustained winds of 85 mph (140 km/h). A special advisory will be issued by 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC) to reflect this intensity change and update the track and intensity forecast. The special advisory will be issued in lieu of the 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC) intermediate advisory. SUMMARY OF 1145 AM CST...1745 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.1N 98.4W ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 5 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES $$ Forecaster Brown

...EYEWALL OF JOHN VERY NEAR THE COAST... ...DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND FLASH FLOODING ARE IMMINENT... As of 6:00 PM CST Mon Sep 23 the center of John was located near 15.9, -98.6 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A lead shortwave trough will be moving through parts of the Ohio Valley Tuesday morning with a stronger mid-level jet digging southward through the central Plains. Trends in model guidance have suggested a stronger large-scale trough across the Midwest over the last few cycles. However, the surface pattern still remains a point of uncertainty. At least a weak surface low is expected to be positioned near the Illinois/Indiana border Tuesday morning. The exact position and evolution are not clear, but a general movement to the north-northeast is expected. This will aid in slowly pushing an effective warm front north in Indiana/Ohio/western Pennsylvania. Farther to the west, a secondary, weak surface low is forecast to develop in the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma. A weak cold front will push southward as mid-level jet/trough moves south and eastward, respectively. ...Central/Eastern Kentucky... Confidence in scattered storm coverage has increased. While some activity may be ongoing early Tuesday, model guidance generally suggested that at least broken heating is possible. Additional storms are expected along/ahead of the cold front during the afternoon. While mid-level lapse rates will not be overly steep, 40-50 kts of effective shear should lead to organized storms capable of wind damage and isolated large hail. 15% wind probabilities have been limited to where the highest confidence in scattered storm coverage is. Some adjustments are still possible as details regarding low-level destabilization becomes more apparent. ...Mid-South into southern Appalachians... While low/mid-level forcing will be weaker in these areas, shear will still be strong enough to support organized convection along the cold front and within the higher terrain. Mid-level lapse rates will be modest, but a moist airmass (dewpoints in the upper 60s to perhaps low 70s F) will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE where heating occurs. Damaging winds are likely the primary threat, but effective shear of 40-45 kts will also support some risk of large hail with the strongest storms. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Uncertainty in the track of the surface low and effective warm front complicate the forecast for this region. Some guidance is more aggressive in destabilizing the boundary layer in the wake of early day activity. Wind profiles will support supercells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs near the effective warm front. While the tornado threat will be conditional on the degree of destabilization and overall storm evolution, a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a brief tornado. ...Western Oklahoma Vicinity... Some model guidance develops convection along the cold front and moves it southward through western Oklahoma. Moisture will likely be limited which will likely limit storm intensity if any form at all. Gusty winds and small hail could occur with strong northwesterly flow and cold temperatures aloft. Uncertainty is too high to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A lead shortwave trough will be moving through parts of the Ohio Valley Tuesday morning with a stronger mid-level jet digging southward through the central Plains. Trends in model guidance have suggested a stronger large-scale trough across the Midwest over the last few cycles. However, the surface pattern still remains a point of uncertainty. At least a weak surface low is expected to be positioned near the Illinois/Indiana border Tuesday morning. The exact position and evolution are not clear, but a general movement to the north-northeast is expected. This will aid in slowly pushing an effective warm front north in Indiana/Ohio/western Pennsylvania. Farther to the west, a secondary, weak surface low is forecast to develop in the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma. A weak cold front will push southward as mid-level jet/trough moves south and eastward, respectively. ...Central/Eastern Kentucky... Confidence in scattered storm coverage has increased. While some activity may be ongoing early Tuesday, model guidance generally suggested that at least broken heating is possible. Additional storms are expected along/ahead of the cold front during the afternoon. While mid-level lapse rates will not be overly steep, 40-50 kts of effective shear should lead to organized storms capable of wind damage and isolated large hail. 15% wind probabilities have been limited to where the highest confidence in scattered storm coverage is. Some adjustments are still possible as details regarding low-level destabilization becomes more apparent. ...Mid-South into southern Appalachians... While low/mid-level forcing will be weaker in these areas, shear will still be strong enough to support organized convection along the cold front and within the higher terrain. Mid-level lapse rates will be modest, but a moist airmass (dewpoints in the upper 60s to perhaps low 70s F) will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE where heating occurs. Damaging winds are likely the primary threat, but effective shear of 40-45 kts will also support some risk of large hail with the strongest storms. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Uncertainty in the track of the surface low and effective warm front complicate the forecast for this region. Some guidance is more aggressive in destabilizing the boundary layer in the wake of early day activity. Wind profiles will support supercells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs near the effective warm front. While the tornado threat will be conditional on the degree of destabilization and overall storm evolution, a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a brief tornado. ...Western Oklahoma Vicinity... Some model guidance develops convection along the cold front and moves it southward through western Oklahoma. Moisture will likely be limited which will likely limit storm intensity if any form at all. Gusty winds and small hail could occur with strong northwesterly flow and cold temperatures aloft. Uncertainty is too high to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A lead shortwave trough will be moving through parts of the Ohio Valley Tuesday morning with a stronger mid-level jet digging southward through the central Plains. Trends in model guidance have suggested a stronger large-scale trough across the Midwest over the last few cycles. However, the surface pattern still remains a point of uncertainty. At least a weak surface low is expected to be positioned near the Illinois/Indiana border Tuesday morning. The exact position and evolution are not clear, but a general movement to the north-northeast is expected. This will aid in slowly pushing an effective warm front north in Indiana/Ohio/western Pennsylvania. Farther to the west, a secondary, weak surface low is forecast to develop in the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma. A weak cold front will push southward as mid-level jet/trough moves south and eastward, respectively. ...Central/Eastern Kentucky... Confidence in scattered storm coverage has increased. While some activity may be ongoing early Tuesday, model guidance generally suggested that at least broken heating is possible. Additional storms are expected along/ahead of the cold front during the afternoon. While mid-level lapse rates will not be overly steep, 40-50 kts of effective shear should lead to organized storms capable of wind damage and isolated large hail. 15% wind probabilities have been limited to where the highest confidence in scattered storm coverage is. Some adjustments are still possible as details regarding low-level destabilization becomes more apparent. ...Mid-South into southern Appalachians... While low/mid-level forcing will be weaker in these areas, shear will still be strong enough to support organized convection along the cold front and within the higher terrain. Mid-level lapse rates will be modest, but a moist airmass (dewpoints in the upper 60s to perhaps low 70s F) will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE where heating occurs. Damaging winds are likely the primary threat, but effective shear of 40-45 kts will also support some risk of large hail with the strongest storms. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Uncertainty in the track of the surface low and effective warm front complicate the forecast for this region. Some guidance is more aggressive in destabilizing the boundary layer in the wake of early day activity. Wind profiles will support supercells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs near the effective warm front. While the tornado threat will be conditional on the degree of destabilization and overall storm evolution, a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a brief tornado. ...Western Oklahoma Vicinity... Some model guidance develops convection along the cold front and moves it southward through western Oklahoma. Moisture will likely be limited which will likely limit storm intensity if any form at all. Gusty winds and small hail could occur with strong northwesterly flow and cold temperatures aloft. Uncertainty is too high to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A lead shortwave trough will be moving through parts of the Ohio Valley Tuesday morning with a stronger mid-level jet digging southward through the central Plains. Trends in model guidance have suggested a stronger large-scale trough across the Midwest over the last few cycles. However, the surface pattern still remains a point of uncertainty. At least a weak surface low is expected to be positioned near the Illinois/Indiana border Tuesday morning. The exact position and evolution are not clear, but a general movement to the north-northeast is expected. This will aid in slowly pushing an effective warm front north in Indiana/Ohio/western Pennsylvania. Farther to the west, a secondary, weak surface low is forecast to develop in the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma. A weak cold front will push southward as mid-level jet/trough moves south and eastward, respectively. ...Central/Eastern Kentucky... Confidence in scattered storm coverage has increased. While some activity may be ongoing early Tuesday, model guidance generally suggested that at least broken heating is possible. Additional storms are expected along/ahead of the cold front during the afternoon. While mid-level lapse rates will not be overly steep, 40-50 kts of effective shear should lead to organized storms capable of wind damage and isolated large hail. 15% wind probabilities have been limited to where the highest confidence in scattered storm coverage is. Some adjustments are still possible as details regarding low-level destabilization becomes more apparent. ...Mid-South into southern Appalachians... While low/mid-level forcing will be weaker in these areas, shear will still be strong enough to support organized convection along the cold front and within the higher terrain. Mid-level lapse rates will be modest, but a moist airmass (dewpoints in the upper 60s to perhaps low 70s F) will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE where heating occurs. Damaging winds are likely the primary threat, but effective shear of 40-45 kts will also support some risk of large hail with the strongest storms. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Uncertainty in the track of the surface low and effective warm front complicate the forecast for this region. Some guidance is more aggressive in destabilizing the boundary layer in the wake of early day activity. Wind profiles will support supercells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs near the effective warm front. While the tornado threat will be conditional on the degree of destabilization and overall storm evolution, a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a brief tornado. ...Western Oklahoma Vicinity... Some model guidance develops convection along the cold front and moves it southward through western Oklahoma. Moisture will likely be limited which will likely limit storm intensity if any form at all. Gusty winds and small hail could occur with strong northwesterly flow and cold temperatures aloft. Uncertainty is too high to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A lead shortwave trough will be moving through parts of the Ohio Valley Tuesday morning with a stronger mid-level jet digging southward through the central Plains. Trends in model guidance have suggested a stronger large-scale trough across the Midwest over the last few cycles. However, the surface pattern still remains a point of uncertainty. At least a weak surface low is expected to be positioned near the Illinois/Indiana border Tuesday morning. The exact position and evolution are not clear, but a general movement to the north-northeast is expected. This will aid in slowly pushing an effective warm front north in Indiana/Ohio/western Pennsylvania. Farther to the west, a secondary, weak surface low is forecast to develop in the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma. A weak cold front will push southward as mid-level jet/trough moves south and eastward, respectively. ...Central/Eastern Kentucky... Confidence in scattered storm coverage has increased. While some activity may be ongoing early Tuesday, model guidance generally suggested that at least broken heating is possible. Additional storms are expected along/ahead of the cold front during the afternoon. While mid-level lapse rates will not be overly steep, 40-50 kts of effective shear should lead to organized storms capable of wind damage and isolated large hail. 15% wind probabilities have been limited to where the highest confidence in scattered storm coverage is. Some adjustments are still possible as details regarding low-level destabilization becomes more apparent. ...Mid-South into southern Appalachians... While low/mid-level forcing will be weaker in these areas, shear will still be strong enough to support organized convection along the cold front and within the higher terrain. Mid-level lapse rates will be modest, but a moist airmass (dewpoints in the upper 60s to perhaps low 70s F) will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE where heating occurs. Damaging winds are likely the primary threat, but effective shear of 40-45 kts will also support some risk of large hail with the strongest storms. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Uncertainty in the track of the surface low and effective warm front complicate the forecast for this region. Some guidance is more aggressive in destabilizing the boundary layer in the wake of early day activity. Wind profiles will support supercells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs near the effective warm front. While the tornado threat will be conditional on the degree of destabilization and overall storm evolution, a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a brief tornado. ...Western Oklahoma Vicinity... Some model guidance develops convection along the cold front and moves it southward through western Oklahoma. Moisture will likely be limited which will likely limit storm intensity if any form at all. Gusty winds and small hail could occur with strong northwesterly flow and cold temperatures aloft. Uncertainty is too high to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A lead shortwave trough will be moving through parts of the Ohio Valley Tuesday morning with a stronger mid-level jet digging southward through the central Plains. Trends in model guidance have suggested a stronger large-scale trough across the Midwest over the last few cycles. However, the surface pattern still remains a point of uncertainty. At least a weak surface low is expected to be positioned near the Illinois/Indiana border Tuesday morning. The exact position and evolution are not clear, but a general movement to the north-northeast is expected. This will aid in slowly pushing an effective warm front north in Indiana/Ohio/western Pennsylvania. Farther to the west, a secondary, weak surface low is forecast to develop in the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma. A weak cold front will push southward as mid-level jet/trough moves south and eastward, respectively. ...Central/Eastern Kentucky... Confidence in scattered storm coverage has increased. While some activity may be ongoing early Tuesday, model guidance generally suggested that at least broken heating is possible. Additional storms are expected along/ahead of the cold front during the afternoon. While mid-level lapse rates will not be overly steep, 40-50 kts of effective shear should lead to organized storms capable of wind damage and isolated large hail. 15% wind probabilities have been limited to where the highest confidence in scattered storm coverage is. Some adjustments are still possible as details regarding low-level destabilization becomes more apparent. ...Mid-South into southern Appalachians... While low/mid-level forcing will be weaker in these areas, shear will still be strong enough to support organized convection along the cold front and within the higher terrain. Mid-level lapse rates will be modest, but a moist airmass (dewpoints in the upper 60s to perhaps low 70s F) will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE where heating occurs. Damaging winds are likely the primary threat, but effective shear of 40-45 kts will also support some risk of large hail with the strongest storms. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Uncertainty in the track of the surface low and effective warm front complicate the forecast for this region. Some guidance is more aggressive in destabilizing the boundary layer in the wake of early day activity. Wind profiles will support supercells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs near the effective warm front. While the tornado threat will be conditional on the degree of destabilization and overall storm evolution, a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a brief tornado. ...Western Oklahoma Vicinity... Some model guidance develops convection along the cold front and moves it southward through western Oklahoma. Moisture will likely be limited which will likely limit storm intensity if any form at all. Gusty winds and small hail could occur with strong northwesterly flow and cold temperatures aloft. Uncertainty is too high to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A lead shortwave trough will be moving through parts of the Ohio Valley Tuesday morning with a stronger mid-level jet digging southward through the central Plains. Trends in model guidance have suggested a stronger large-scale trough across the Midwest over the last few cycles. However, the surface pattern still remains a point of uncertainty. At least a weak surface low is expected to be positioned near the Illinois/Indiana border Tuesday morning. The exact position and evolution are not clear, but a general movement to the north-northeast is expected. This will aid in slowly pushing an effective warm front north in Indiana/Ohio/western Pennsylvania. Farther to the west, a secondary, weak surface low is forecast to develop in the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma. A weak cold front will push southward as mid-level jet/trough moves south and eastward, respectively. ...Central/Eastern Kentucky... Confidence in scattered storm coverage has increased. While some activity may be ongoing early Tuesday, model guidance generally suggested that at least broken heating is possible. Additional storms are expected along/ahead of the cold front during the afternoon. While mid-level lapse rates will not be overly steep, 40-50 kts of effective shear should lead to organized storms capable of wind damage and isolated large hail. 15% wind probabilities have been limited to where the highest confidence in scattered storm coverage is. Some adjustments are still possible as details regarding low-level destabilization becomes more apparent. ...Mid-South into southern Appalachians... While low/mid-level forcing will be weaker in these areas, shear will still be strong enough to support organized convection along the cold front and within the higher terrain. Mid-level lapse rates will be modest, but a moist airmass (dewpoints in the upper 60s to perhaps low 70s F) will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE where heating occurs. Damaging winds are likely the primary threat, but effective shear of 40-45 kts will also support some risk of large hail with the strongest storms. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Uncertainty in the track of the surface low and effective warm front complicate the forecast for this region. Some guidance is more aggressive in destabilizing the boundary layer in the wake of early day activity. Wind profiles will support supercells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs near the effective warm front. While the tornado threat will be conditional on the degree of destabilization and overall storm evolution, a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a brief tornado. ...Western Oklahoma Vicinity... Some model guidance develops convection along the cold front and moves it southward through western Oklahoma. Moisture will likely be limited which will likely limit storm intensity if any form at all. Gusty winds and small hail could occur with strong northwesterly flow and cold temperatures aloft. Uncertainty is too high to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A lead shortwave trough will be moving through parts of the Ohio Valley Tuesday morning with a stronger mid-level jet digging southward through the central Plains. Trends in model guidance have suggested a stronger large-scale trough across the Midwest over the last few cycles. However, the surface pattern still remains a point of uncertainty. At least a weak surface low is expected to be positioned near the Illinois/Indiana border Tuesday morning. The exact position and evolution are not clear, but a general movement to the north-northeast is expected. This will aid in slowly pushing an effective warm front north in Indiana/Ohio/western Pennsylvania. Farther to the west, a secondary, weak surface low is forecast to develop in the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma. A weak cold front will push southward as mid-level jet/trough moves south and eastward, respectively. ...Central/Eastern Kentucky... Confidence in scattered storm coverage has increased. While some activity may be ongoing early Tuesday, model guidance generally suggested that at least broken heating is possible. Additional storms are expected along/ahead of the cold front during the afternoon. While mid-level lapse rates will not be overly steep, 40-50 kts of effective shear should lead to organized storms capable of wind damage and isolated large hail. 15% wind probabilities have been limited to where the highest confidence in scattered storm coverage is. Some adjustments are still possible as details regarding low-level destabilization becomes more apparent. ...Mid-South into southern Appalachians... While low/mid-level forcing will be weaker in these areas, shear will still be strong enough to support organized convection along the cold front and within the higher terrain. Mid-level lapse rates will be modest, but a moist airmass (dewpoints in the upper 60s to perhaps low 70s F) will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE where heating occurs. Damaging winds are likely the primary threat, but effective shear of 40-45 kts will also support some risk of large hail with the strongest storms. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Uncertainty in the track of the surface low and effective warm front complicate the forecast for this region. Some guidance is more aggressive in destabilizing the boundary layer in the wake of early day activity. Wind profiles will support supercells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs near the effective warm front. While the tornado threat will be conditional on the degree of destabilization and overall storm evolution, a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a brief tornado. ...Western Oklahoma Vicinity... Some model guidance develops convection along the cold front and moves it southward through western Oklahoma. Moisture will likely be limited which will likely limit storm intensity if any form at all. Gusty winds and small hail could occur with strong northwesterly flow and cold temperatures aloft. Uncertainty is too high to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A lead shortwave trough will be moving through parts of the Ohio Valley Tuesday morning with a stronger mid-level jet digging southward through the central Plains. Trends in model guidance have suggested a stronger large-scale trough across the Midwest over the last few cycles. However, the surface pattern still remains a point of uncertainty. At least a weak surface low is expected to be positioned near the Illinois/Indiana border Tuesday morning. The exact position and evolution are not clear, but a general movement to the north-northeast is expected. This will aid in slowly pushing an effective warm front north in Indiana/Ohio/western Pennsylvania. Farther to the west, a secondary, weak surface low is forecast to develop in the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma. A weak cold front will push southward as mid-level jet/trough moves south and eastward, respectively. ...Central/Eastern Kentucky... Confidence in scattered storm coverage has increased. While some activity may be ongoing early Tuesday, model guidance generally suggested that at least broken heating is possible. Additional storms are expected along/ahead of the cold front during the afternoon. While mid-level lapse rates will not be overly steep, 40-50 kts of effective shear should lead to organized storms capable of wind damage and isolated large hail. 15% wind probabilities have been limited to where the highest confidence in scattered storm coverage is. Some adjustments are still possible as details regarding low-level destabilization becomes more apparent. ...Mid-South into southern Appalachians... While low/mid-level forcing will be weaker in these areas, shear will still be strong enough to support organized convection along the cold front and within the higher terrain. Mid-level lapse rates will be modest, but a moist airmass (dewpoints in the upper 60s to perhaps low 70s F) will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE where heating occurs. Damaging winds are likely the primary threat, but effective shear of 40-45 kts will also support some risk of large hail with the strongest storms. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Uncertainty in the track of the surface low and effective warm front complicate the forecast for this region. Some guidance is more aggressive in destabilizing the boundary layer in the wake of early day activity. Wind profiles will support supercells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs near the effective warm front. While the tornado threat will be conditional on the degree of destabilization and overall storm evolution, a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a brief tornado. ...Western Oklahoma Vicinity... Some model guidance develops convection along the cold front and moves it southward through western Oklahoma. Moisture will likely be limited which will likely limit storm intensity if any form at all. Gusty winds and small hail could occur with strong northwesterly flow and cold temperatures aloft. Uncertainty is too high to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible on Tuesday across portions of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the central/southern Appalachians. ...Synopsis... A lead shortwave trough will be moving through parts of the Ohio Valley Tuesday morning with a stronger mid-level jet digging southward through the central Plains. Trends in model guidance have suggested a stronger large-scale trough across the Midwest over the last few cycles. However, the surface pattern still remains a point of uncertainty. At least a weak surface low is expected to be positioned near the Illinois/Indiana border Tuesday morning. The exact position and evolution are not clear, but a general movement to the north-northeast is expected. This will aid in slowly pushing an effective warm front north in Indiana/Ohio/western Pennsylvania. Farther to the west, a secondary, weak surface low is forecast to develop in the Texas Panhandle/western Oklahoma. A weak cold front will push southward as mid-level jet/trough moves south and eastward, respectively. ...Central/Eastern Kentucky... Confidence in scattered storm coverage has increased. While some activity may be ongoing early Tuesday, model guidance generally suggested that at least broken heating is possible. Additional storms are expected along/ahead of the cold front during the afternoon. While mid-level lapse rates will not be overly steep, 40-50 kts of effective shear should lead to organized storms capable of wind damage and isolated large hail. 15% wind probabilities have been limited to where the highest confidence in scattered storm coverage is. Some adjustments are still possible as details regarding low-level destabilization becomes more apparent. ...Mid-South into southern Appalachians... While low/mid-level forcing will be weaker in these areas, shear will still be strong enough to support organized convection along the cold front and within the higher terrain. Mid-level lapse rates will be modest, but a moist airmass (dewpoints in the upper 60s to perhaps low 70s F) will support 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE where heating occurs. Damaging winds are likely the primary threat, but effective shear of 40-45 kts will also support some risk of large hail with the strongest storms. ...Lower Great Lakes Vicinity... Uncertainty in the track of the surface low and effective warm front complicate the forecast for this region. Some guidance is more aggressive in destabilizing the boundary layer in the wake of early day activity. Wind profiles will support supercells capable of damaging winds and large hail. Forecast soundings show enlarged low-level hodographs near the effective warm front. While the tornado threat will be conditional on the degree of destabilization and overall storm evolution, a supercell interacting with the boundary could produce a brief tornado. ...Western Oklahoma Vicinity... Some model guidance develops convection along the cold front and moves it southward through western Oklahoma. Moisture will likely be limited which will likely limit storm intensity if any form at all. Gusty winds and small hail could occur with strong northwesterly flow and cold temperatures aloft. Uncertainty is too high to introduce probabilities at this time. ..Wendt.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. Fire weather concerns remain minimal. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low today across the CONUS. Across the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with warming conditions. Dry conditions are expected across the southwest, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. Fire weather concerns remain minimal. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low today across the CONUS. Across the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with warming conditions. Dry conditions are expected across the southwest, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. Fire weather concerns remain minimal. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low today across the CONUS. Across the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with warming conditions. Dry conditions are expected across the southwest, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. Fire weather concerns remain minimal. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low today across the CONUS. Across the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with warming conditions. Dry conditions are expected across the southwest, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 231700Z - 241200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. Fire weather concerns remain minimal. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0147 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be low today across the CONUS. Across the central US, cool and wet conditions continue beneath mid-level troughing. Ridging will begin building across the western US with warming conditions. Dry conditions are expected across the southwest, but generally light winds will keep fire concerns low. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more