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Issued at 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 240231 TCMEP5 HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 0300 UTC TUE SEP 24 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 98.8W AT 24/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 959 MB EYE DIAMETER 5 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 120 KT. 64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 10NE 90SE 60SW 10NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 98.8W AT 24/0300Z AT 24/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 98.6W FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 17.0N 98.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 10SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 20NE 40SE 50SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 17.5N 99.1W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 98.8W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 24/0600Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0900Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. ...01z Update... Positive-tilt short-wave trough has advanced into IA-eastern KS-OK early this evening as upstream height falls appear to now be influencing the movement of this feature. Large-scale ascent is spreading across the mid Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley, and one reflection of this stronger forcing is expressed as a corridor of convection that extends from south of Springfield IL-STL-extreme northern AR. Low-level warm advection continues ahead of this activity with 10-15kt, 1km southwesterly flow from near the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers into central KY. While effective shear is not particularly strong, it's adequate for at least organized clusters and perhaps a weak supercell or two. Given the weak lapse rates, locally damaging winds should be the greatest concern this evening. ..Darrow.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. ...01z Update... Positive-tilt short-wave trough has advanced into IA-eastern KS-OK early this evening as upstream height falls appear to now be influencing the movement of this feature. Large-scale ascent is spreading across the mid Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley, and one reflection of this stronger forcing is expressed as a corridor of convection that extends from south of Springfield IL-STL-extreme northern AR. Low-level warm advection continues ahead of this activity with 10-15kt, 1km southwesterly flow from near the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers into central KY. While effective shear is not particularly strong, it's adequate for at least organized clusters and perhaps a weak supercell or two. Given the weak lapse rates, locally damaging winds should be the greatest concern this evening. ..Darrow.. 09/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0738 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 240100Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE OZARKS TO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from the Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. ...01z Update... Positive-tilt short-wave trough has advanced into IA-eastern KS-OK early this evening as upstream height falls appear to now be influencing the movement of this feature. Large-scale ascent is spreading across the mid Mississippi Valley into the lower Ohio Valley, and one reflection of this stronger forcing is expressed as a corridor of convection that extends from south of Springfield IL-STL-extreme northern AR. Low-level warm advection continues ahead of this activity with 10-15kt, 1km southwesterly flow from near the confluence of the MS/OH Rivers into central KY. While effective shear is not particularly strong, it's adequate for at least organized clusters and perhaps a weak supercell or two. Given the weak lapse rates, locally damaging winds should be the greatest concern this evening. ..Darrow.. 09/24/2024 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 23:49:12 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 23 Sep 2024 21:28:56 GMT

...EYEWALL OF JOHN VERY NEAR THE COAST... ...DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND FLASH FLOODING ARE IMMINENT... As of 6:00 PM CST Mon Sep 23 the center of John was located near 15.9, -98.6 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 970 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 105 mph.

Issued at 600 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 232348 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane John Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 600 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 ...EYEWALL OF JOHN VERY NEAR THE COAST... ...DAMAGING HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS, LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND FLASH FLOODING ARE IMMINENT... SUMMARY OF 600 PM CST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.9N 98.6W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM S OF PUNTA MALDONADO MEXICO ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM W OF PUERTO ESCONDIDO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * East of Acapulco to Bahias de Huatulco A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * East of Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next few hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next few hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 PM CST (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane John was located near latitude 15.9 North, longitude 98.6 West. John is moving toward the north near 8 mph (15 km/h). A slow motion to the north or north-northwest is expected during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track, the center of John is forecast to move inland along the coast of southern Mexico late tonight or early Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. John is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Additional strengthening is possible over the next few hours and John could become a major hurricane before making landfall along the coast of southern Mexico. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb (28.64 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for John can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Through Thursday, John is expected to produce 6 to 12 inches of rain with isolated totals around 15 inches across the coastal areas of Chiapas. In areas along and near the Oaxaca coast to southeast Guerrero, between 10 and 20 inches of rain with isolated totals near 30 inches can be expected through Thursday. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A life-threatening storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are imminent within portions of the hurricane warning area. Tropical-storm-force winds are already occuring within the warning area. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue affecting the coast of southern Mexico during the next couple of days, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents much of the week. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Kelly

No watches are valid as of Mon Sep 23 23:20:07 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Mon Sep 23 23:20:07 UTC 2024.

600
ABPZ20 KNHC 232303
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Sep 23 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
John, located near the coast of southern Mexico.

East-Central Portion of the East Pacific:
A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Development of this system is no longer expected as
it moves eastward towards the coast of southern Mexico the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

MD 2098 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI AND NORTHEASTERN ARKANSAS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO/TENNESSEE VALLEYS
Mesoscale Discussion 2098 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Areas affected...southeastern Missouri and northeastern Arkansas into the Mid Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 232032Z - 232300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Gradually increasing convection will pose some risk for gusty winds and hail, possibly reaching severe levels locally. A tornado also cannot be ruled out, though overall limited/marginal nature of the risk expected at this time may preclude the need for WW consideration. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery shows some thinning of the high clouds across southeastern Missouri and into Arkansas, near and ahead of the surface cold front. Resulting, filtered heating has allowed 1000 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE to evolve near and ahead of the boundary. This is supporting a gradual increase in convective coverage across the Mid Mississippi/Lower Ohio/Tennessee Valleys -- and westward into the Ozarks just to the cool side of the front. This increase includes a small/weakly rotating storm moving eastward across New Madrid County Missouri at this time. Low-level flow remains generally veered across the warm sector, limiting shear in the lowest 1km AGL. Still, 30 to 40 kt west-southwesterlies at mid levels will continue to provide shear sufficient to support organized updrafts. Ascent crossing Missouri/Arkansas at this time -- associated with a mid-level vort max -- suggests some further increase in convective coverage/intensity over the next couple of hours. While we will continue to monitor evolution, present indications remain that WW issuance should remain unnecessary. ..Goss/Guyer.. 09/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...PAH...MEG...LSX...LZK...SGF... LAT...LON 36509225 37129079 37688976 37898795 37858688 36998690 35858800 34489103 34549181 35129232 36509225 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z A cutoff low will bring cool/moist conditions to much of the south-central and eastern CONUS with limited fire weather concerns. In addition, a tropical system will bring significant rainfall to much of the southeast CONUS and parts of the East Coast. West of this cutoff low, ridging will build across the western CONUS. As this occurs, some warm and dry conditions are expected from the Southwest to the Great Basin. On Wednesday, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the lee of the northern Sierra and southern Cascades as a mid-level trough traverses the region and mid-level flow strengthens. Fuels in this region and are not critically dry. In addition, relative humidity will only drop to around 18 to 25 percent in the afternoon. Therefore, while some Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, Critical conditions seem unlikely due to the combination of unreceptive fuels and only Elevated winds/relative humidity. Beyond Wednesday, minimal overlap between low relative humidity and windy conditions, especially where fuels are critically dry, precludes any significant fire weather concerns. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z A cutoff low will bring cool/moist conditions to much of the south-central and eastern CONUS with limited fire weather concerns. In addition, a tropical system will bring significant rainfall to much of the southeast CONUS and parts of the East Coast. West of this cutoff low, ridging will build across the western CONUS. As this occurs, some warm and dry conditions are expected from the Southwest to the Great Basin. On Wednesday, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the lee of the northern Sierra and southern Cascades as a mid-level trough traverses the region and mid-level flow strengthens. Fuels in this region and are not critically dry. In addition, relative humidity will only drop to around 18 to 25 percent in the afternoon. Therefore, while some Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, Critical conditions seem unlikely due to the combination of unreceptive fuels and only Elevated winds/relative humidity. Beyond Wednesday, minimal overlap between low relative humidity and windy conditions, especially where fuels are critically dry, precludes any significant fire weather concerns. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z A cutoff low will bring cool/moist conditions to much of the south-central and eastern CONUS with limited fire weather concerns. In addition, a tropical system will bring significant rainfall to much of the southeast CONUS and parts of the East Coast. West of this cutoff low, ridging will build across the western CONUS. As this occurs, some warm and dry conditions are expected from the Southwest to the Great Basin. On Wednesday, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the lee of the northern Sierra and southern Cascades as a mid-level trough traverses the region and mid-level flow strengthens. Fuels in this region and are not critically dry. In addition, relative humidity will only drop to around 18 to 25 percent in the afternoon. Therefore, while some Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, Critical conditions seem unlikely due to the combination of unreceptive fuels and only Elevated winds/relative humidity. Beyond Wednesday, minimal overlap between low relative humidity and windy conditions, especially where fuels are critically dry, precludes any significant fire weather concerns. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z A cutoff low will bring cool/moist conditions to much of the south-central and eastern CONUS with limited fire weather concerns. In addition, a tropical system will bring significant rainfall to much of the southeast CONUS and parts of the East Coast. West of this cutoff low, ridging will build across the western CONUS. As this occurs, some warm and dry conditions are expected from the Southwest to the Great Basin. On Wednesday, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the lee of the northern Sierra and southern Cascades as a mid-level trough traverses the region and mid-level flow strengthens. Fuels in this region and are not critically dry. In addition, relative humidity will only drop to around 18 to 25 percent in the afternoon. Therefore, while some Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, Critical conditions seem unlikely due to the combination of unreceptive fuels and only Elevated winds/relative humidity. Beyond Wednesday, minimal overlap between low relative humidity and windy conditions, especially where fuels are critically dry, precludes any significant fire weather concerns. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z A cutoff low will bring cool/moist conditions to much of the south-central and eastern CONUS with limited fire weather concerns. In addition, a tropical system will bring significant rainfall to much of the southeast CONUS and parts of the East Coast. West of this cutoff low, ridging will build across the western CONUS. As this occurs, some warm and dry conditions are expected from the Southwest to the Great Basin. On Wednesday, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the lee of the northern Sierra and southern Cascades as a mid-level trough traverses the region and mid-level flow strengthens. Fuels in this region and are not critically dry. In addition, relative humidity will only drop to around 18 to 25 percent in the afternoon. Therefore, while some Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, Critical conditions seem unlikely due to the combination of unreceptive fuels and only Elevated winds/relative humidity. Beyond Wednesday, minimal overlap between low relative humidity and windy conditions, especially where fuels are critically dry, precludes any significant fire weather concerns. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z A cutoff low will bring cool/moist conditions to much of the south-central and eastern CONUS with limited fire weather concerns. In addition, a tropical system will bring significant rainfall to much of the southeast CONUS and parts of the East Coast. West of this cutoff low, ridging will build across the western CONUS. As this occurs, some warm and dry conditions are expected from the Southwest to the Great Basin. On Wednesday, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the lee of the northern Sierra and southern Cascades as a mid-level trough traverses the region and mid-level flow strengthens. Fuels in this region and are not critically dry. In addition, relative humidity will only drop to around 18 to 25 percent in the afternoon. Therefore, while some Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, Critical conditions seem unlikely due to the combination of unreceptive fuels and only Elevated winds/relative humidity. Beyond Wednesday, minimal overlap between low relative humidity and windy conditions, especially where fuels are critically dry, precludes any significant fire weather concerns. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z A cutoff low will bring cool/moist conditions to much of the south-central and eastern CONUS with limited fire weather concerns. In addition, a tropical system will bring significant rainfall to much of the southeast CONUS and parts of the East Coast. West of this cutoff low, ridging will build across the western CONUS. As this occurs, some warm and dry conditions are expected from the Southwest to the Great Basin. On Wednesday, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the lee of the northern Sierra and southern Cascades as a mid-level trough traverses the region and mid-level flow strengthens. Fuels in this region and are not critically dry. In addition, relative humidity will only drop to around 18 to 25 percent in the afternoon. Therefore, while some Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, Critical conditions seem unlikely due to the combination of unreceptive fuels and only Elevated winds/relative humidity. Beyond Wednesday, minimal overlap between low relative humidity and windy conditions, especially where fuels are critically dry, precludes any significant fire weather concerns. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z A cutoff low will bring cool/moist conditions to much of the south-central and eastern CONUS with limited fire weather concerns. In addition, a tropical system will bring significant rainfall to much of the southeast CONUS and parts of the East Coast. West of this cutoff low, ridging will build across the western CONUS. As this occurs, some warm and dry conditions are expected from the Southwest to the Great Basin. On Wednesday, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the lee of the northern Sierra and southern Cascades as a mid-level trough traverses the region and mid-level flow strengthens. Fuels in this region and are not critically dry. In addition, relative humidity will only drop to around 18 to 25 percent in the afternoon. Therefore, while some Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, Critical conditions seem unlikely due to the combination of unreceptive fuels and only Elevated winds/relative humidity. Beyond Wednesday, minimal overlap between low relative humidity and windy conditions, especially where fuels are critically dry, precludes any significant fire weather concerns. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 011200Z A cutoff low will bring cool/moist conditions to much of the south-central and eastern CONUS with limited fire weather concerns. In addition, a tropical system will bring significant rainfall to much of the southeast CONUS and parts of the East Coast. West of this cutoff low, ridging will build across the western CONUS. As this occurs, some warm and dry conditions are expected from the Southwest to the Great Basin. On Wednesday, some dry and breezy conditions are possible in the lee of the northern Sierra and southern Cascades as a mid-level trough traverses the region and mid-level flow strengthens. Fuels in this region and are not critically dry. In addition, relative humidity will only drop to around 18 to 25 percent in the afternoon. Therefore, while some Elevated fire weather conditions are possible, Critical conditions seem unlikely due to the combination of unreceptive fuels and only Elevated winds/relative humidity. Beyond Wednesday, minimal overlap between low relative humidity and windy conditions, especially where fuels are critically dry, precludes any significant fire weather concerns. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more