Aggregator

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of southern Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper troughing is forecast to cover much of the CONUS early Tuesday, anchored by a shortwave trough moving into the southern High Plains. This shortwave is expected to continue eastward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley, ending the period over the TN Valley. Progression of this shortwave will foster a more neutral tilt to the parent upper troughing while also significantly strengthening the mid-level flow through its eastern periphery. Consequently, a belt of 100-120 kt 500 mb flow will likely extend from AL into the central Appalachians early Wednesday morning. At the surface, a low associated with a leading shortwave trough is expected to progress from the ArkLaMiss northeastward through the TN Valley. As it does, an attendant cold front will push across the Southeast. By early Wednesday, this front will likely extend from a low over eastern PA southwestward through the eastern FL Panhandle. A moderately moist warm sector will precede this front, characterized by mid 60s dewpoints throughout much of the region. Even with this low-level moisture in place, overall buoyancy will be mitigated by poor lapse rates and relatively warm profiles. While buoyancy will be minimal (i.e. less than 750 J/kg), surface-based storms appear probable along and just ahead of the front during the afternoon across portions of southern AL, southwest GA, and the adjacent FL Panhandle. The strengthening low to mid-level flow will result in long hodographs indicative of an environment that supports organized storm structures. A gradually narrowing warm sector will likely limit the eastern extent of the severe threat. ..Mosier.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of southern Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper troughing is forecast to cover much of the CONUS early Tuesday, anchored by a shortwave trough moving into the southern High Plains. This shortwave is expected to continue eastward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley, ending the period over the TN Valley. Progression of this shortwave will foster a more neutral tilt to the parent upper troughing while also significantly strengthening the mid-level flow through its eastern periphery. Consequently, a belt of 100-120 kt 500 mb flow will likely extend from AL into the central Appalachians early Wednesday morning. At the surface, a low associated with a leading shortwave trough is expected to progress from the ArkLaMiss northeastward through the TN Valley. As it does, an attendant cold front will push across the Southeast. By early Wednesday, this front will likely extend from a low over eastern PA southwestward through the eastern FL Panhandle. A moderately moist warm sector will precede this front, characterized by mid 60s dewpoints throughout much of the region. Even with this low-level moisture in place, overall buoyancy will be mitigated by poor lapse rates and relatively warm profiles. While buoyancy will be minimal (i.e. less than 750 J/kg), surface-based storms appear probable along and just ahead of the front during the afternoon across portions of southern AL, southwest GA, and the adjacent FL Panhandle. The strengthening low to mid-level flow will result in long hodographs indicative of an environment that supports organized storm structures. A gradually narrowing warm sector will likely limit the eastern extent of the severe threat. ..Mosier.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of southern Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper troughing is forecast to cover much of the CONUS early Tuesday, anchored by a shortwave trough moving into the southern High Plains. This shortwave is expected to continue eastward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley, ending the period over the TN Valley. Progression of this shortwave will foster a more neutral tilt to the parent upper troughing while also significantly strengthening the mid-level flow through its eastern periphery. Consequently, a belt of 100-120 kt 500 mb flow will likely extend from AL into the central Appalachians early Wednesday morning. At the surface, a low associated with a leading shortwave trough is expected to progress from the ArkLaMiss northeastward through the TN Valley. As it does, an attendant cold front will push across the Southeast. By early Wednesday, this front will likely extend from a low over eastern PA southwestward through the eastern FL Panhandle. A moderately moist warm sector will precede this front, characterized by mid 60s dewpoints throughout much of the region. Even with this low-level moisture in place, overall buoyancy will be mitigated by poor lapse rates and relatively warm profiles. While buoyancy will be minimal (i.e. less than 750 J/kg), surface-based storms appear probable along and just ahead of the front during the afternoon across portions of southern AL, southwest GA, and the adjacent FL Panhandle. The strengthening low to mid-level flow will result in long hodographs indicative of an environment that supports organized storm structures. A gradually narrowing warm sector will likely limit the eastern extent of the severe threat. ..Mosier.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... ...Southern California Coast... Fire weather concerns will likely emerge along the southern CA coast by late Monday amid strengthening offshore pressure gradient winds. A gradual amplification of the upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is anticipated over the next 48 hours as it shifts east/southeast. In its wake, an unseasonably strong 1035-1040 mb surface high (around the 90th percentile for early December) is expected to settle into the northern Great Basin through late Monday into early Tuesday. This will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast with the DAG-LAX gradient approaching elevated thresholds by Monday afternoon and critical thresholds (-9 to -11 mb) by 12 UTC Tuesday. As such, northeasterly winds are expected to increase through the afternoon and into the overnight hours with gusts upwards of 40-60 mph possible within the terrain. 07 UTC surface observations show dry conditions (10-20% RH) already in place within the coastal mountains, which should see limited RH recovery prior to the onset of stronger winds. As such, elevated fire weather conditions are expected by Monday afternoon with critical conditions becoming increasingly likely/widespread during the 06-12 UTC period Monday night/Tuesday morning. ...Southeast New Mexico into southwestern Texas... West/northwesterly gradient winds are forecast to increase through the day across southeast NM into southwestern TX ahead of a southward-pushing cold front. Latest ensemble guidance suggests sustained winds between 15-20 mph are likely with RH reductions into the teens and low 20s probable. While elevated fire weather conditions will likely emerge, latest ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are not supportive of a robust fire threat at this time. ..Moore.. 12/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... ...Southern California Coast... Fire weather concerns will likely emerge along the southern CA coast by late Monday amid strengthening offshore pressure gradient winds. A gradual amplification of the upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is anticipated over the next 48 hours as it shifts east/southeast. In its wake, an unseasonably strong 1035-1040 mb surface high (around the 90th percentile for early December) is expected to settle into the northern Great Basin through late Monday into early Tuesday. This will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast with the DAG-LAX gradient approaching elevated thresholds by Monday afternoon and critical thresholds (-9 to -11 mb) by 12 UTC Tuesday. As such, northeasterly winds are expected to increase through the afternoon and into the overnight hours with gusts upwards of 40-60 mph possible within the terrain. 07 UTC surface observations show dry conditions (10-20% RH) already in place within the coastal mountains, which should see limited RH recovery prior to the onset of stronger winds. As such, elevated fire weather conditions are expected by Monday afternoon with critical conditions becoming increasingly likely/widespread during the 06-12 UTC period Monday night/Tuesday morning. ...Southeast New Mexico into southwestern Texas... West/northwesterly gradient winds are forecast to increase through the day across southeast NM into southwestern TX ahead of a southward-pushing cold front. Latest ensemble guidance suggests sustained winds between 15-20 mph are likely with RH reductions into the teens and low 20s probable. While elevated fire weather conditions will likely emerge, latest ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are not supportive of a robust fire threat at this time. ..Moore.. 12/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... ...Southern California Coast... Fire weather concerns will likely emerge along the southern CA coast by late Monday amid strengthening offshore pressure gradient winds. A gradual amplification of the upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is anticipated over the next 48 hours as it shifts east/southeast. In its wake, an unseasonably strong 1035-1040 mb surface high (around the 90th percentile for early December) is expected to settle into the northern Great Basin through late Monday into early Tuesday. This will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast with the DAG-LAX gradient approaching elevated thresholds by Monday afternoon and critical thresholds (-9 to -11 mb) by 12 UTC Tuesday. As such, northeasterly winds are expected to increase through the afternoon and into the overnight hours with gusts upwards of 40-60 mph possible within the terrain. 07 UTC surface observations show dry conditions (10-20% RH) already in place within the coastal mountains, which should see limited RH recovery prior to the onset of stronger winds. As such, elevated fire weather conditions are expected by Monday afternoon with critical conditions becoming increasingly likely/widespread during the 06-12 UTC period Monday night/Tuesday morning. ...Southeast New Mexico into southwestern Texas... West/northwesterly gradient winds are forecast to increase through the day across southeast NM into southwestern TX ahead of a southward-pushing cold front. Latest ensemble guidance suggests sustained winds between 15-20 mph are likely with RH reductions into the teens and low 20s probable. While elevated fire weather conditions will likely emerge, latest ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are not supportive of a robust fire threat at this time. ..Moore.. 12/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... ...Southern California Coast... Fire weather concerns will likely emerge along the southern CA coast by late Monday amid strengthening offshore pressure gradient winds. A gradual amplification of the upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is anticipated over the next 48 hours as it shifts east/southeast. In its wake, an unseasonably strong 1035-1040 mb surface high (around the 90th percentile for early December) is expected to settle into the northern Great Basin through late Monday into early Tuesday. This will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast with the DAG-LAX gradient approaching elevated thresholds by Monday afternoon and critical thresholds (-9 to -11 mb) by 12 UTC Tuesday. As such, northeasterly winds are expected to increase through the afternoon and into the overnight hours with gusts upwards of 40-60 mph possible within the terrain. 07 UTC surface observations show dry conditions (10-20% RH) already in place within the coastal mountains, which should see limited RH recovery prior to the onset of stronger winds. As such, elevated fire weather conditions are expected by Monday afternoon with critical conditions becoming increasingly likely/widespread during the 06-12 UTC period Monday night/Tuesday morning. ...Southeast New Mexico into southwestern Texas... West/northwesterly gradient winds are forecast to increase through the day across southeast NM into southwestern TX ahead of a southward-pushing cold front. Latest ensemble guidance suggests sustained winds between 15-20 mph are likely with RH reductions into the teens and low 20s probable. While elevated fire weather conditions will likely emerge, latest ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are not supportive of a robust fire threat at this time. ..Moore.. 12/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... ...Southern California Coast... Fire weather concerns will likely emerge along the southern CA coast by late Monday amid strengthening offshore pressure gradient winds. A gradual amplification of the upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is anticipated over the next 48 hours as it shifts east/southeast. In its wake, an unseasonably strong 1035-1040 mb surface high (around the 90th percentile for early December) is expected to settle into the northern Great Basin through late Monday into early Tuesday. This will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast with the DAG-LAX gradient approaching elevated thresholds by Monday afternoon and critical thresholds (-9 to -11 mb) by 12 UTC Tuesday. As such, northeasterly winds are expected to increase through the afternoon and into the overnight hours with gusts upwards of 40-60 mph possible within the terrain. 07 UTC surface observations show dry conditions (10-20% RH) already in place within the coastal mountains, which should see limited RH recovery prior to the onset of stronger winds. As such, elevated fire weather conditions are expected by Monday afternoon with critical conditions becoming increasingly likely/widespread during the 06-12 UTC period Monday night/Tuesday morning. ...Southeast New Mexico into southwestern Texas... West/northwesterly gradient winds are forecast to increase through the day across southeast NM into southwestern TX ahead of a southward-pushing cold front. Latest ensemble guidance suggests sustained winds between 15-20 mph are likely with RH reductions into the teens and low 20s probable. While elevated fire weather conditions will likely emerge, latest ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are not supportive of a robust fire threat at this time. ..Moore.. 12/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0144 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...Synopsis... ...Southern California Coast... Fire weather concerns will likely emerge along the southern CA coast by late Monday amid strengthening offshore pressure gradient winds. A gradual amplification of the upper trough currently over the Pacific Northwest is anticipated over the next 48 hours as it shifts east/southeast. In its wake, an unseasonably strong 1035-1040 mb surface high (around the 90th percentile for early December) is expected to settle into the northern Great Basin through late Monday into early Tuesday. This will promote a strengthening offshore pressure gradient along the southern CA coast with the DAG-LAX gradient approaching elevated thresholds by Monday afternoon and critical thresholds (-9 to -11 mb) by 12 UTC Tuesday. As such, northeasterly winds are expected to increase through the afternoon and into the overnight hours with gusts upwards of 40-60 mph possible within the terrain. 07 UTC surface observations show dry conditions (10-20% RH) already in place within the coastal mountains, which should see limited RH recovery prior to the onset of stronger winds. As such, elevated fire weather conditions are expected by Monday afternoon with critical conditions becoming increasingly likely/widespread during the 06-12 UTC period Monday night/Tuesday morning. ...Southeast New Mexico into southwestern Texas... West/northwesterly gradient winds are forecast to increase through the day across southeast NM into southwestern TX ahead of a southward-pushing cold front. Latest ensemble guidance suggests sustained winds between 15-20 mph are likely with RH reductions into the teens and low 20s probable. While elevated fire weather conditions will likely emerge, latest ERC analyses continue to suggest that fuels are not supportive of a robust fire threat at this time. ..Moore.. 12/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the country. Steady surface pressure falls are noted along the High Plains as an upper wave migrates from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies/northern High Plains. This trend will continue for the next 24 hours as a surface cyclone consolidates over the Dakotas. An attendant cold front is forecast to push southeast across the Plains through the day, but downslope flow off the northern Rockies will modulate temperature reductions and may support areas of dry/windy conditions (winds gusting up to 30 mph with 20-30% RH minimums) within the post-frontal regime. Along the lee of the central and southern Rockies, westerly downslope flow to the west of a deepening surface trough will support areas of elevated fire weather conditions across central CO into eastern NM. Wind speeds up to 15-25 mph are expected, and will likely coincide with 15-25% RH minimums. However, latest fuel guidance continues to suggest that fuels across much of the Plains are not receptive, which will limit fire concerns outside of finer/grassier fuel beds. ..Moore.. 12/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the country. Steady surface pressure falls are noted along the High Plains as an upper wave migrates from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies/northern High Plains. This trend will continue for the next 24 hours as a surface cyclone consolidates over the Dakotas. An attendant cold front is forecast to push southeast across the Plains through the day, but downslope flow off the northern Rockies will modulate temperature reductions and may support areas of dry/windy conditions (winds gusting up to 30 mph with 20-30% RH minimums) within the post-frontal regime. Along the lee of the central and southern Rockies, westerly downslope flow to the west of a deepening surface trough will support areas of elevated fire weather conditions across central CO into eastern NM. Wind speeds up to 15-25 mph are expected, and will likely coincide with 15-25% RH minimums. However, latest fuel guidance continues to suggest that fuels across much of the Plains are not receptive, which will limit fire concerns outside of finer/grassier fuel beds. ..Moore.. 12/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the country. Steady surface pressure falls are noted along the High Plains as an upper wave migrates from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies/northern High Plains. This trend will continue for the next 24 hours as a surface cyclone consolidates over the Dakotas. An attendant cold front is forecast to push southeast across the Plains through the day, but downslope flow off the northern Rockies will modulate temperature reductions and may support areas of dry/windy conditions (winds gusting up to 30 mph with 20-30% RH minimums) within the post-frontal regime. Along the lee of the central and southern Rockies, westerly downslope flow to the west of a deepening surface trough will support areas of elevated fire weather conditions across central CO into eastern NM. Wind speeds up to 15-25 mph are expected, and will likely coincide with 15-25% RH minimums. However, latest fuel guidance continues to suggest that fuels across much of the Plains are not receptive, which will limit fire concerns outside of finer/grassier fuel beds. ..Moore.. 12/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the country. Steady surface pressure falls are noted along the High Plains as an upper wave migrates from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies/northern High Plains. This trend will continue for the next 24 hours as a surface cyclone consolidates over the Dakotas. An attendant cold front is forecast to push southeast across the Plains through the day, but downslope flow off the northern Rockies will modulate temperature reductions and may support areas of dry/windy conditions (winds gusting up to 30 mph with 20-30% RH minimums) within the post-frontal regime. Along the lee of the central and southern Rockies, westerly downslope flow to the west of a deepening surface trough will support areas of elevated fire weather conditions across central CO into eastern NM. Wind speeds up to 15-25 mph are expected, and will likely coincide with 15-25% RH minimums. However, latest fuel guidance continues to suggest that fuels across much of the Plains are not receptive, which will limit fire concerns outside of finer/grassier fuel beds. ..Moore.. 12/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the country. Steady surface pressure falls are noted along the High Plains as an upper wave migrates from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies/northern High Plains. This trend will continue for the next 24 hours as a surface cyclone consolidates over the Dakotas. An attendant cold front is forecast to push southeast across the Plains through the day, but downslope flow off the northern Rockies will modulate temperature reductions and may support areas of dry/windy conditions (winds gusting up to 30 mph with 20-30% RH minimums) within the post-frontal regime. Along the lee of the central and southern Rockies, westerly downslope flow to the west of a deepening surface trough will support areas of elevated fire weather conditions across central CO into eastern NM. Wind speeds up to 15-25 mph are expected, and will likely coincide with 15-25% RH minimums. However, latest fuel guidance continues to suggest that fuels across much of the Plains are not receptive, which will limit fire concerns outside of finer/grassier fuel beds. ..Moore.. 12/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0110 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain limited for today across the country. Steady surface pressure falls are noted along the High Plains as an upper wave migrates from the Pacific Northwest into the northern Rockies/northern High Plains. This trend will continue for the next 24 hours as a surface cyclone consolidates over the Dakotas. An attendant cold front is forecast to push southeast across the Plains through the day, but downslope flow off the northern Rockies will modulate temperature reductions and may support areas of dry/windy conditions (winds gusting up to 30 mph with 20-30% RH minimums) within the post-frontal regime. Along the lee of the central and southern Rockies, westerly downslope flow to the west of a deepening surface trough will support areas of elevated fire weather conditions across central CO into eastern NM. Wind speeds up to 15-25 mph are expected, and will likely coincide with 15-25% RH minimums. However, latest fuel guidance continues to suggest that fuels across much of the Plains are not receptive, which will limit fire concerns outside of finer/grassier fuel beds. ..Moore.. 12/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The upper pattern is forecast to undergo significant amplification on Monday, resulting in a deep upper trough that is expected to extend across much of the CONUS by Tuesday morning. The initial evolution of this upper trough will begin as a shortwave trough moves through the Great Basin into the Southwest while another moves from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes and Ontario. A surface low attendant to the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes shortwave trough will move eastward just ahead of its parent shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will push southeastward through the Mid MS and the Lower OH Valleys, and the southern Plains. A secondary low is forecast to develop along the front across north TX, before then moving eastward and ending the period over northern LA/west-central MS. This overall evolution will encourage the development of a broad warm sector across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast, with dewpoints likely reaching the mid 60s before the front moves through. A broad area of precipitation is anticipated within this warm sector throughout the day, but buoyancy will be minimized by poor lapse rates and relatively warm profiles. Initially strong low-level flow will weaken throughout the day before then increasing again Monday night ahead of the front. This will lengthen low-level hodographs, with low-level shear high enough to support severe potential. Localized severe potential may exist near the surface low as it moves across the ArkLaMiss vicinity late Monday night. However, minimal buoyancy will remain in place, with surface stability potentially persisting as well. These factors suggest the overall severe threat will remain low, precluding the need for any probabilities. ..Mosier.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The upper pattern is forecast to undergo significant amplification on Monday, resulting in a deep upper trough that is expected to extend across much of the CONUS by Tuesday morning. The initial evolution of this upper trough will begin as a shortwave trough moves through the Great Basin into the Southwest while another moves from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes and Ontario. A surface low attendant to the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes shortwave trough will move eastward just ahead of its parent shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will push southeastward through the Mid MS and the Lower OH Valleys, and the southern Plains. A secondary low is forecast to develop along the front across north TX, before then moving eastward and ending the period over northern LA/west-central MS. This overall evolution will encourage the development of a broad warm sector across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast, with dewpoints likely reaching the mid 60s before the front moves through. A broad area of precipitation is anticipated within this warm sector throughout the day, but buoyancy will be minimized by poor lapse rates and relatively warm profiles. Initially strong low-level flow will weaken throughout the day before then increasing again Monday night ahead of the front. This will lengthen low-level hodographs, with low-level shear high enough to support severe potential. Localized severe potential may exist near the surface low as it moves across the ArkLaMiss vicinity late Monday night. However, minimal buoyancy will remain in place, with surface stability potentially persisting as well. These factors suggest the overall severe threat will remain low, precluding the need for any probabilities. ..Mosier.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The upper pattern is forecast to undergo significant amplification on Monday, resulting in a deep upper trough that is expected to extend across much of the CONUS by Tuesday morning. The initial evolution of this upper trough will begin as a shortwave trough moves through the Great Basin into the Southwest while another moves from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes and Ontario. A surface low attendant to the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes shortwave trough will move eastward just ahead of its parent shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will push southeastward through the Mid MS and the Lower OH Valleys, and the southern Plains. A secondary low is forecast to develop along the front across north TX, before then moving eastward and ending the period over northern LA/west-central MS. This overall evolution will encourage the development of a broad warm sector across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast, with dewpoints likely reaching the mid 60s before the front moves through. A broad area of precipitation is anticipated within this warm sector throughout the day, but buoyancy will be minimized by poor lapse rates and relatively warm profiles. Initially strong low-level flow will weaken throughout the day before then increasing again Monday night ahead of the front. This will lengthen low-level hodographs, with low-level shear high enough to support severe potential. Localized severe potential may exist near the surface low as it moves across the ArkLaMiss vicinity late Monday night. However, minimal buoyancy will remain in place, with surface stability potentially persisting as well. These factors suggest the overall severe threat will remain low, precluding the need for any probabilities. ..Mosier.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The upper pattern is forecast to undergo significant amplification on Monday, resulting in a deep upper trough that is expected to extend across much of the CONUS by Tuesday morning. The initial evolution of this upper trough will begin as a shortwave trough moves through the Great Basin into the Southwest while another moves from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes and Ontario. A surface low attendant to the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes shortwave trough will move eastward just ahead of its parent shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will push southeastward through the Mid MS and the Lower OH Valleys, and the southern Plains. A secondary low is forecast to develop along the front across north TX, before then moving eastward and ending the period over northern LA/west-central MS. This overall evolution will encourage the development of a broad warm sector across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast, with dewpoints likely reaching the mid 60s before the front moves through. A broad area of precipitation is anticipated within this warm sector throughout the day, but buoyancy will be minimized by poor lapse rates and relatively warm profiles. Initially strong low-level flow will weaken throughout the day before then increasing again Monday night ahead of the front. This will lengthen low-level hodographs, with low-level shear high enough to support severe potential. Localized severe potential may exist near the surface low as it moves across the ArkLaMiss vicinity late Monday night. However, minimal buoyancy will remain in place, with surface stability potentially persisting as well. These factors suggest the overall severe threat will remain low, precluding the need for any probabilities. ..Mosier.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1253 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of the Southeast States on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis and Discussion... The upper pattern is forecast to undergo significant amplification on Monday, resulting in a deep upper trough that is expected to extend across much of the CONUS by Tuesday morning. The initial evolution of this upper trough will begin as a shortwave trough moves through the Great Basin into the Southwest while another moves from the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes and Ontario. A surface low attendant to the Upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes shortwave trough will move eastward just ahead of its parent shortwave. As it does, an associated cold front will push southeastward through the Mid MS and the Lower OH Valleys, and the southern Plains. A secondary low is forecast to develop along the front across north TX, before then moving eastward and ending the period over northern LA/west-central MS. This overall evolution will encourage the development of a broad warm sector across the Lower MS Valley and Southeast, with dewpoints likely reaching the mid 60s before the front moves through. A broad area of precipitation is anticipated within this warm sector throughout the day, but buoyancy will be minimized by poor lapse rates and relatively warm profiles. Initially strong low-level flow will weaken throughout the day before then increasing again Monday night ahead of the front. This will lengthen low-level hodographs, with low-level shear high enough to support severe potential. Localized severe potential may exist near the surface low as it moves across the ArkLaMiss vicinity late Monday night. However, minimal buoyancy will remain in place, with surface stability potentially persisting as well. These factors suggest the overall severe threat will remain low, precluding the need for any probabilities. ..Mosier.. 12/08/2024 Read more