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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will traverse the northern portion of the western US ridge today, bringing enhanced mid-level flow over the Cascades into western Washington and Oregon. Across southwestern Oregon, sustained winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Receptive fuels in this region are spotty, which leads to low confidence in including an area at this time. In the lee of the Bighorn Mountains in Wyoming, some Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will be possible. Overall, sustained Elevated to Critical wind speeds appear brief and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will traverse the northern portion of the western US ridge today, bringing enhanced mid-level flow over the Cascades into western Washington and Oregon. Across southwestern Oregon, sustained winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Receptive fuels in this region are spotty, which leads to low confidence in including an area at this time. In the lee of the Bighorn Mountains in Wyoming, some Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will be possible. Overall, sustained Elevated to Critical wind speeds appear brief and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will traverse the northern portion of the western US ridge today, bringing enhanced mid-level flow over the Cascades into western Washington and Oregon. Across southwestern Oregon, sustained winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Receptive fuels in this region are spotty, which leads to low confidence in including an area at this time. In the lee of the Bighorn Mountains in Wyoming, some Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will be possible. Overall, sustained Elevated to Critical wind speeds appear brief and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will traverse the northern portion of the western US ridge today, bringing enhanced mid-level flow over the Cascades into western Washington and Oregon. Across southwestern Oregon, sustained winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Receptive fuels in this region are spotty, which leads to low confidence in including an area at this time. In the lee of the Bighorn Mountains in Wyoming, some Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will be possible. Overall, sustained Elevated to Critical wind speeds appear brief and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will traverse the northern portion of the western US ridge today, bringing enhanced mid-level flow over the Cascades into western Washington and Oregon. Across southwestern Oregon, sustained winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Receptive fuels in this region are spotty, which leads to low confidence in including an area at this time. In the lee of the Bighorn Mountains in Wyoming, some Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will be possible. Overall, sustained Elevated to Critical wind speeds appear brief and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2024 14:57:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 25 Sep 2024 15:28:45 GMT

Issued at 900 AM CST Wed Sep 25 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 251456 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm John Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 AM CST Wed Sep 25 2024 John has reformed near the southwestern coast of Mexico. The CIMSS-UW satellite vorticity analyses show remnants of vorticity, likely associated with the mid-level circulation of John, have merged with a larger source of vorticity from the monsoon trough. Convection has gradually become better organized based on geostationary infrared and visibly imagery. An AMSR2 microwave pass at 0807 UTC showed curved banding near the surface, indicating a well-defined surface center. A Dvorak classification from TAFB has given John a 2.0/35 kt and that is the initial intensity for this advisory. The environmental conditions appear conducive for John to strengthen in the next day or so, as long as the circulation stays over water. Global models show the vertical wind shear remaining weak-to-moderate, ample mid-level moisture, and very warm sea surface temperatures. Statistical guidance even suggests there is an above average possibility for strong-to-rapid intensification. The latest NHC intensity forecast shows John reaching a peak intensity of 55 kt in 24 h, which is near the HCCA intensity aid and at the top of the guidance envelope. However, there is a chance John may become a hurricane prior to landfall. The tropical storm is meandering eastward in the monsoonal flow with an estimate motion of 80/2 kt. Models indicate that John will gradually turn towards the north later today and accelerate slightly towards the coast on Thursday. Regional and global models vary the timing of landfall, with the GFS and GFS-based hurricane models showing John at the coast by tomorrow evening and the ECMWF lingering offshore until Friday. The official track forecast calls for landfall along the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico on Thursday evening, however, there is uncertainty associated with this timing. A Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning have been issued by the government of Mexico for portions of the coast of southern Mexico and interests there should closely monitor future forecasts for updates. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical Storm John will bring additional very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southwest Mexico through Friday. The additional rainfall totals will be falling across areas that have received very heavy rainfall amounts over the past few days. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Guerrero, Oaxaca, coastal Chiapas, and coastal Michoaca. 2. John is forecast to strengthen before landfall, and a Hurricane Watch and a Tropical Storm Warning have been issued for a portion of the coastline of southern and southwestern Mexico, where tropical storm conditions could begin later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/1500Z 16.2N 101.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/0000Z 16.3N 101.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 26/1200Z 16.7N 101.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 27/0000Z 17.3N 101.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 27/1200Z 17.8N 101.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Bucci/R. Zelinsky

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 25 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 251455 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOHN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 1500 UTC WED SEP 25 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 101.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 10(10) 14(24) 3(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) ZIHUATANEJO 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ZIHUATANEJO 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 15N 100W 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ACAPULCO 34 1 18(19) 9(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) ACAPULCO 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

Issued at 900 AM CST Wed Sep 25 2024 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 251455 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm John Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 900 AM CST Wed Sep 25 2024 ...JOHN REFORMS... ...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 101.4W ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM WSW OF ACAPULCO MEXICO ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM S OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Watch for the coast of Mexico from Acapulco to Zihuatanejo. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the coast of Mexico from Punta Maldonado to Lazaro Cardenas. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Acapulco to Zihuatanejo A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Punta Maldonado to Lazaro Cardenas A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm John was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 101.4 West. John is moving toward the east near 2 mph (4 km/h). A slow motion to the north is expected later today. On the forecast track, the center of the system is forecast to approach the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico on Thursday and move inland on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. John is forecast to strengthen as it approaches the coast of southern Mexico on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: Through Friday, Tropical Storm John is expected to produce additional rainfall amounts of 10 to 20 inches with isolated totals around 30 inches across the Mexican States of Guerrero, Oaxaca, coastal Chiapas, and coastal Michoaca. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm John, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible along the coast within the hurricane watch area Thursday. Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength as early as tonight, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the tropical storm warning area as early as tonight. SURF: Swells associated with John are forecast to continue to affect the coast of southern Mexico through the week, with the potential for dangerous surf and rip currents. Please see local statements for more information. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Bucci/R. Zelinsky

...JOHN REFORMS... ...HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM CST Wed Sep 25 the center of John was located near 16.2, -101.4 with movement E at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC WED SEP 25 2024 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 251454 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 1500 UTC WED SEP 25 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 101.4W AT 25/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 40NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 180SE 180SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 101.4W AT 25/1500Z AT 25/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 101.5W FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 16.3N 101.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 100SE 90SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 16.7N 101.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 110SE 100SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 17.3N 101.1W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 0NE 110SE 60SW 15NW. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 17.8N 101.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 101.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPEP5...AT 25/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BUCCI

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0823 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon from parts of the Southeast and central/southern Appalachians to the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. Some tornado threat may develop across the Florida Peninsula by this evening, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ...Southeast and southern Appalachians... Widespread precipitation is expected from parts of the Southeast into the southern Appalachians, due to the combined influence of the mid/upper-level flow to the west and moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico and Helene. While this will tend to limit available buoyancy in some areas, strong to locally severe storms will be possible with initial development, with preconvective MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg possible. This will generally be coincident with favorable deep-layer shear, especially across the southern Appalachians vicinity where a few supercells could occur pending sufficient destabilization. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms, before low/mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy become increasingly weak with time, and an outflow-reinforced front sags southward across the region. ...Texas Gulf Coast/Middle Gulf Coast... Somewhat stronger diurnal destabilization will be possible from parts of central/east Texas into Louisiana, and perhaps into Mississippi, with MLCAPE potentially increasing above 1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near a southward-moving cold front. Effective shear will generally range from 25-35 kt, and a few modestly organized storms are possible. Isolated damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms within this regime. ...Florida Peninsula and Keys... Helene's wind field is forecast to be rather large, especially on the east side of the circulation, associated with what is expected to be a strengthening Helene through the afternoon and night. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest Helene details. This scenario will result in modestly strengthening low-level shear/SRH across the Florida Peninsula during the day, but more so into the evening and overnight after the peak diurnal instability cycle. Instability will likely remain rather weak overall, and details regarding the intensity of any outer rain bands remain uncertain. However, some tropical-cyclone tornado threat could evolve across parts of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, mainly into tonight. ...Eastern Washington/northern Idaho/northwest Montana... While buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will support thunderstorm potential late this afternoon through early evening from eastern Washington into northern Idaho and northwest Montana, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Most guidance suggests that instability will remain too weak for an organized severe threat, although rather strong deep-layer flow/shear could support a strong storm or two with locally gusty winds and small hail. Subsequent outlooks will reevaluate the possibility of introducing low severe probabilities. ...Upper Ohio Valley to the Lower Great Lakes... Weak to locally moderate buoyancy may develop later today from parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the lower Great Lakes region, between a weakening cold front approaching from the west, and a slow-moving warm front draped from central Pennsylvania into western New York. Moderate southwesterly midlevel flow will support effective shear of 35-45 kt, sufficient for storm organization. However, with persistent cloud cover and mid-level lapse rates expected to remain rather weak, storm intensity and any attendant severe threat could be relatively limited. Confidence in sufficient destabilization remains too low to add severe probabilities. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0823 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon from parts of the Southeast and central/southern Appalachians to the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. Some tornado threat may develop across the Florida Peninsula by this evening, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ...Southeast and southern Appalachians... Widespread precipitation is expected from parts of the Southeast into the southern Appalachians, due to the combined influence of the mid/upper-level flow to the west and moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico and Helene. While this will tend to limit available buoyancy in some areas, strong to locally severe storms will be possible with initial development, with preconvective MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg possible. This will generally be coincident with favorable deep-layer shear, especially across the southern Appalachians vicinity where a few supercells could occur pending sufficient destabilization. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms, before low/mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy become increasingly weak with time, and an outflow-reinforced front sags southward across the region. ...Texas Gulf Coast/Middle Gulf Coast... Somewhat stronger diurnal destabilization will be possible from parts of central/east Texas into Louisiana, and perhaps into Mississippi, with MLCAPE potentially increasing above 1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near a southward-moving cold front. Effective shear will generally range from 25-35 kt, and a few modestly organized storms are possible. Isolated damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms within this regime. ...Florida Peninsula and Keys... Helene's wind field is forecast to be rather large, especially on the east side of the circulation, associated with what is expected to be a strengthening Helene through the afternoon and night. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest Helene details. This scenario will result in modestly strengthening low-level shear/SRH across the Florida Peninsula during the day, but more so into the evening and overnight after the peak diurnal instability cycle. Instability will likely remain rather weak overall, and details regarding the intensity of any outer rain bands remain uncertain. However, some tropical-cyclone tornado threat could evolve across parts of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, mainly into tonight. ...Eastern Washington/northern Idaho/northwest Montana... While buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will support thunderstorm potential late this afternoon through early evening from eastern Washington into northern Idaho and northwest Montana, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Most guidance suggests that instability will remain too weak for an organized severe threat, although rather strong deep-layer flow/shear could support a strong storm or two with locally gusty winds and small hail. Subsequent outlooks will reevaluate the possibility of introducing low severe probabilities. ...Upper Ohio Valley to the Lower Great Lakes... Weak to locally moderate buoyancy may develop later today from parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the lower Great Lakes region, between a weakening cold front approaching from the west, and a slow-moving warm front draped from central Pennsylvania into western New York. Moderate southwesterly midlevel flow will support effective shear of 35-45 kt, sufficient for storm organization. However, with persistent cloud cover and mid-level lapse rates expected to remain rather weak, storm intensity and any attendant severe threat could be relatively limited. Confidence in sufficient destabilization remains too low to add severe probabilities. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 2 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0823 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon from parts of the Southeast and central/southern Appalachians to the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. Some tornado threat may develop across the Florida Peninsula by this evening, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ...Southeast and southern Appalachians... Widespread precipitation is expected from parts of the Southeast into the southern Appalachians, due to the combined influence of the mid/upper-level flow to the west and moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico and Helene. While this will tend to limit available buoyancy in some areas, strong to locally severe storms will be possible with initial development, with preconvective MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg possible. This will generally be coincident with favorable deep-layer shear, especially across the southern Appalachians vicinity where a few supercells could occur pending sufficient destabilization. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms, before low/mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy become increasingly weak with time, and an outflow-reinforced front sags southward across the region. ...Texas Gulf Coast/Middle Gulf Coast... Somewhat stronger diurnal destabilization will be possible from parts of central/east Texas into Louisiana, and perhaps into Mississippi, with MLCAPE potentially increasing above 1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near a southward-moving cold front. Effective shear will generally range from 25-35 kt, and a few modestly organized storms are possible. Isolated damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms within this regime. ...Florida Peninsula and Keys... Helene's wind field is forecast to be rather large, especially on the east side of the circulation, associated with what is expected to be a strengthening Helene through the afternoon and night. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest Helene details. This scenario will result in modestly strengthening low-level shear/SRH across the Florida Peninsula during the day, but more so into the evening and overnight after the peak diurnal instability cycle. Instability will likely remain rather weak overall, and details regarding the intensity of any outer rain bands remain uncertain. However, some tropical-cyclone tornado threat could evolve across parts of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, mainly into tonight. ...Eastern Washington/northern Idaho/northwest Montana... While buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will support thunderstorm potential late this afternoon through early evening from eastern Washington into northern Idaho and northwest Montana, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Most guidance suggests that instability will remain too weak for an organized severe threat, although rather strong deep-layer flow/shear could support a strong storm or two with locally gusty winds and small hail. Subsequent outlooks will reevaluate the possibility of introducing low severe probabilities. ...Upper Ohio Valley to the Lower Great Lakes... Weak to locally moderate buoyancy may develop later today from parts of the upper Ohio Valley into the lower Great Lakes region, between a weakening cold front approaching from the west, and a slow-moving warm front draped from central Pennsylvania into western New York. Moderate southwesterly midlevel flow will support effective shear of 35-45 kt, sufficient for storm organization. However, with persistent cloud cover and mid-level lapse rates expected to remain rather weak, storm intensity and any attendant severe threat could be relatively limited. Confidence in sufficient destabilization remains too low to add severe probabilities. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 09/25/2024 Read more

The 2024 growing season was good for many Texas pumpkin producers, according to a Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service expert and pumpkin farmers. Yields and quality were mostly better than in 2023. This year’s pumpkin yields were below average but were better than the previous year when output was down 20% to 40% on average due to drought. The dry weather and extreme heat left the pumpkins slightly smaller than average. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), Sept 24, 2024

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251147
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Sep 25 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP95):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to increase and become better
organized this morning in association with an area of low pressure,
partially associated with the remnants of John, located offshore of
southern Mexico. Ship observations in the area also depict pressure
falling within the area the last several hours. If these trends
continue, advisories will likely be initiated later this morning,
with watches and warnings likely issued for portions of Mexico.
Interests in southern Mexico should closely monitor the progress of
this system as it is expected to produce heavy rainfall with the
potential for flash flooding and mudslides over a large portion of
southern Mexico through this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251010
TWOEP

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
310 AM PDT Wed Sep 25 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special Outlook Issued to update information about EP95, the system
offshore of Southern Mexico.

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP95):
Update: Recent ship observations indicate significant pressure falls
are occuring with an area of low pressure, partially associated with
the remnants of John, located offshore of Southern Mexico. Shower
and thunderstorm activity also continues to become better organized.
If these trends continue, a tropical depression or storm could form
as soon as later today, as long as the system remains over water.
Interests in southern Mexico should closely monitor the progress of
this system, and regardless of development, this system is expected
to produce heavy rainfall with the potential for flash flooding and
mudslides over a large portion of southern Mexico through this
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Beven

MD 2107 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR DALLAS/FORT WORTH METROPLEX
Mesoscale Discussion 2107 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Areas affected...Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 250805Z - 251000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated large hail and wind-damage threat may persist for another hour or two as a small complex of storms moves into the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. The severe threat area is expected to remain small, and watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar imagery shows a small cluster of strong to severe storms located just to the north of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. RAP analysis suggests that the airmass is moderately unstable with MLCAPE around 1000 J/kg. The latest WSR-88D VWP from Fort Worth has 0-6 km shear near 45 knots, with gradually veering winds in the low to mid-levels. In addition, RAP forecast soundings have steep mid-level lapse rates around 700 mb. This should be enough to continue an isolated large-hail threat with transient supercell structures embedded in the cluster. An isolated wind-damage threat may also accompany the leading edge of the more intense cells. The threats are expected to continue for another hour or two. ..Broyles/Leitman.. 09/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD... LAT...LON 33259646 32999616 32719612 32419633 32279664 32279704 32409731 32569742 32969741 33239715 33259646 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to remain low during the Day 4-8 period. The upper cyclone over the Mid-South on Day 4/Sat slowly weaken an meander east/northeast through Day 5/Sun. General upper troughing over the eastern third of the CONUS will then be reinforced by a shortwave trough developing east from the northern Plains to the Northeast Days 6-8/Mon-Wed. As this shortwave trough shifts east early next week, a surface cold front will sweep across the Midwest. However, severe potential associated with this system will be mitigated by weak instability and poor alignment of stronger vertical shear. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will persist over the Great Basin and portions of the Plains, with generally weak deep-layer flow expected across these areas. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential is expected to remain low during the Day 4-8 period. The upper cyclone over the Mid-South on Day 4/Sat slowly weaken an meander east/northeast through Day 5/Sun. General upper troughing over the eastern third of the CONUS will then be reinforced by a shortwave trough developing east from the northern Plains to the Northeast Days 6-8/Mon-Wed. As this shortwave trough shifts east early next week, a surface cold front will sweep across the Midwest. However, severe potential associated with this system will be mitigated by weak instability and poor alignment of stronger vertical shear. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will persist over the Great Basin and portions of the Plains, with generally weak deep-layer flow expected across these areas. Read more