SPC Dec 8, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Lower MS Valley... A weak upper low is tracking northeastward across the TX Panhandle today, with the subtropical mid-level jet extending from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. Broad large-scale ascent has resulted in periodic episodes of thunderstorms across TX overnight and this morning. This regime is expected to shift eastward today into more of AR/LA and eventually the TN Valley overnight. Low-level and deep-layer vertical shear is very strong, and there is a low probability of a strong storm or two across northeast LA into western/central MS late this afternoon capable of gusty winds. However, thermodynamics are quite weak and the overall severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC Dec 8, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Lower MS Valley... A weak upper low is tracking northeastward across the TX Panhandle today, with the subtropical mid-level jet extending from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. Broad large-scale ascent has resulted in periodic episodes of thunderstorms across TX overnight and this morning. This regime is expected to shift eastward today into more of AR/LA and eventually the TN Valley overnight. Low-level and deep-layer vertical shear is very strong, and there is a low probability of a strong storm or two across northeast LA into western/central MS late this afternoon capable of gusty winds. However, thermodynamics are quite weak and the overall severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC Dec 8, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Lower MS Valley... A weak upper low is tracking northeastward across the TX Panhandle today, with the subtropical mid-level jet extending from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. Broad large-scale ascent has resulted in periodic episodes of thunderstorms across TX overnight and this morning. This regime is expected to shift eastward today into more of AR/LA and eventually the TN Valley overnight. Low-level and deep-layer vertical shear is very strong, and there is a low probability of a strong storm or two across northeast LA into western/central MS late this afternoon capable of gusty winds. However, thermodynamics are quite weak and the overall severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC Dec 8, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Lower MS Valley... A weak upper low is tracking northeastward across the TX Panhandle today, with the subtropical mid-level jet extending from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. Broad large-scale ascent has resulted in periodic episodes of thunderstorms across TX overnight and this morning. This regime is expected to shift eastward today into more of AR/LA and eventually the TN Valley overnight. Low-level and deep-layer vertical shear is very strong, and there is a low probability of a strong storm or two across northeast LA into western/central MS late this afternoon capable of gusty winds. However, thermodynamics are quite weak and the overall severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC Dec 8, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 months ago
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1013 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Lower MS Valley... A weak upper low is tracking northeastward across the TX Panhandle today, with the subtropical mid-level jet extending from northern Mexico into the lower MS Valley. Broad large-scale ascent has resulted in periodic episodes of thunderstorms across TX overnight and this morning. This regime is expected to shift eastward today into more of AR/LA and eventually the TN Valley overnight. Low-level and deep-layer vertical shear is very strong, and there is a low probability of a strong storm or two across northeast LA into western/central MS late this afternoon capable of gusty winds. However, thermodynamics are quite weak and the overall severe threat appears too low to introduce probabilities. ..Hart/Squitieri.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC Dec 8, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Split upper-level flow will initially prevail over the CONUS, with an east/northeastward-accelerating southern-stream shortwave trough advancing from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley, while an additional upper trough amplifies over the Northwest. A broad area of warm advection will support scattered elevated convection today near the upper Texas coast and southern Louisiana, northward into North Texas/southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. The potential for lightning-producing convection is expected to expand east-northeastward toward the ArkLaMiss and Mid-South into tonight. Due to the elevated nature of the convection and weak instability, severe weather is not expected. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC Dec 8, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Split upper-level flow will initially prevail over the CONUS, with an east/northeastward-accelerating southern-stream shortwave trough advancing from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley, while an additional upper trough amplifies over the Northwest. A broad area of warm advection will support scattered elevated convection today near the upper Texas coast and southern Louisiana, northward into North Texas/southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. The potential for lightning-producing convection is expected to expand east-northeastward toward the ArkLaMiss and Mid-South into tonight. Due to the elevated nature of the convection and weak instability, severe weather is not expected. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC Dec 8, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Split upper-level flow will initially prevail over the CONUS, with an east/northeastward-accelerating southern-stream shortwave trough advancing from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley, while an additional upper trough amplifies over the Northwest. A broad area of warm advection will support scattered elevated convection today near the upper Texas coast and southern Louisiana, northward into North Texas/southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. The potential for lightning-producing convection is expected to expand east-northeastward toward the ArkLaMiss and Mid-South into tonight. Due to the elevated nature of the convection and weak instability, severe weather is not expected. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC Dec 8, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Split upper-level flow will initially prevail over the CONUS, with an east/northeastward-accelerating southern-stream shortwave trough advancing from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley, while an additional upper trough amplifies over the Northwest. A broad area of warm advection will support scattered elevated convection today near the upper Texas coast and southern Louisiana, northward into North Texas/southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. The potential for lightning-producing convection is expected to expand east-northeastward toward the ArkLaMiss and Mid-South into tonight. Due to the elevated nature of the convection and weak instability, severe weather is not expected. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC Dec 8, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Split upper-level flow will initially prevail over the CONUS, with an east/northeastward-accelerating southern-stream shortwave trough advancing from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley, while an additional upper trough amplifies over the Northwest. A broad area of warm advection will support scattered elevated convection today near the upper Texas coast and southern Louisiana, northward into North Texas/southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. The potential for lightning-producing convection is expected to expand east-northeastward toward the ArkLaMiss and Mid-South into tonight. Due to the elevated nature of the convection and weak instability, severe weather is not expected. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC Dec 8, 2024 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

9 months ago
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0642 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Split upper-level flow will initially prevail over the CONUS, with an east/northeastward-accelerating southern-stream shortwave trough advancing from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley and Lower Ohio Valley, while an additional upper trough amplifies over the Northwest. A broad area of warm advection will support scattered elevated convection today near the upper Texas coast and southern Louisiana, northward into North Texas/southeast Oklahoma and the ArkLaTex region. The potential for lightning-producing convection is expected to expand east-northeastward toward the ArkLaMiss and Mid-South into tonight. Due to the elevated nature of the convection and weak instability, severe weather is not expected. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC Dec 8, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

9 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a deep upper trough will be over much of the central and eastern CONUS early D4/Wednesday morning. At the same time, a surface low is forecast to be over eastern PA, with an attendant cold front extending southwestward from this low across the central Carolinas, southeastern GA, and northern FL. A shortwave trough is forecast to move within the larger upper troughing, moving from the TN Valley/Southeast through the Mid-Atlantic on D4/Wednesday. This evolution will help induce a more negative tilt to the parent troughing while encouraging an eastward shift and deamplification as well. The cold front will also quickly shift eastward off the East Coast. A fairly narrow warm sector may precede this front, but poor lapse rates will limit instability. This low buoyancy will counter the strong shear expected, resulting in mostly weak updrafts and tempering any severe potential. Stable conditions are expected across the CONUS on D5/Thursday as high pressure shifts from the northern Plains into the OH Valley. Some modest moisture return may potentially begin across TX on D6/Friday ahead of a low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough expected to move across the southern Plains late D6/Friday and early D7/Saturday. Guidance varies on the strength and speed of this wave, limiting predictability, but some thunderstorms are possible across central/east TX and LA late D6/Friday and early D7/Saturday as this wave interacts with the return moisture. Read more

SPC Dec 8, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

9 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a deep upper trough will be over much of the central and eastern CONUS early D4/Wednesday morning. At the same time, a surface low is forecast to be over eastern PA, with an attendant cold front extending southwestward from this low across the central Carolinas, southeastern GA, and northern FL. A shortwave trough is forecast to move within the larger upper troughing, moving from the TN Valley/Southeast through the Mid-Atlantic on D4/Wednesday. This evolution will help induce a more negative tilt to the parent troughing while encouraging an eastward shift and deamplification as well. The cold front will also quickly shift eastward off the East Coast. A fairly narrow warm sector may precede this front, but poor lapse rates will limit instability. This low buoyancy will counter the strong shear expected, resulting in mostly weak updrafts and tempering any severe potential. Stable conditions are expected across the CONUS on D5/Thursday as high pressure shifts from the northern Plains into the OH Valley. Some modest moisture return may potentially begin across TX on D6/Friday ahead of a low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough expected to move across the southern Plains late D6/Friday and early D7/Saturday. Guidance varies on the strength and speed of this wave, limiting predictability, but some thunderstorms are possible across central/east TX and LA late D6/Friday and early D7/Saturday as this wave interacts with the return moisture. Read more

SPC Dec 8, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

9 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a deep upper trough will be over much of the central and eastern CONUS early D4/Wednesday morning. At the same time, a surface low is forecast to be over eastern PA, with an attendant cold front extending southwestward from this low across the central Carolinas, southeastern GA, and northern FL. A shortwave trough is forecast to move within the larger upper troughing, moving from the TN Valley/Southeast through the Mid-Atlantic on D4/Wednesday. This evolution will help induce a more negative tilt to the parent troughing while encouraging an eastward shift and deamplification as well. The cold front will also quickly shift eastward off the East Coast. A fairly narrow warm sector may precede this front, but poor lapse rates will limit instability. This low buoyancy will counter the strong shear expected, resulting in mostly weak updrafts and tempering any severe potential. Stable conditions are expected across the CONUS on D5/Thursday as high pressure shifts from the northern Plains into the OH Valley. Some modest moisture return may potentially begin across TX on D6/Friday ahead of a low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough expected to move across the southern Plains late D6/Friday and early D7/Saturday. Guidance varies on the strength and speed of this wave, limiting predictability, but some thunderstorms are possible across central/east TX and LA late D6/Friday and early D7/Saturday as this wave interacts with the return moisture. Read more

SPC Dec 8, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

9 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a deep upper trough will be over much of the central and eastern CONUS early D4/Wednesday morning. At the same time, a surface low is forecast to be over eastern PA, with an attendant cold front extending southwestward from this low across the central Carolinas, southeastern GA, and northern FL. A shortwave trough is forecast to move within the larger upper troughing, moving from the TN Valley/Southeast through the Mid-Atlantic on D4/Wednesday. This evolution will help induce a more negative tilt to the parent troughing while encouraging an eastward shift and deamplification as well. The cold front will also quickly shift eastward off the East Coast. A fairly narrow warm sector may precede this front, but poor lapse rates will limit instability. This low buoyancy will counter the strong shear expected, resulting in mostly weak updrafts and tempering any severe potential. Stable conditions are expected across the CONUS on D5/Thursday as high pressure shifts from the northern Plains into the OH Valley. Some modest moisture return may potentially begin across TX on D6/Friday ahead of a low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough expected to move across the southern Plains late D6/Friday and early D7/Saturday. Guidance varies on the strength and speed of this wave, limiting predictability, but some thunderstorms are possible across central/east TX and LA late D6/Friday and early D7/Saturday as this wave interacts with the return moisture. Read more

SPC Dec 8, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

9 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a deep upper trough will be over much of the central and eastern CONUS early D4/Wednesday morning. At the same time, a surface low is forecast to be over eastern PA, with an attendant cold front extending southwestward from this low across the central Carolinas, southeastern GA, and northern FL. A shortwave trough is forecast to move within the larger upper troughing, moving from the TN Valley/Southeast through the Mid-Atlantic on D4/Wednesday. This evolution will help induce a more negative tilt to the parent troughing while encouraging an eastward shift and deamplification as well. The cold front will also quickly shift eastward off the East Coast. A fairly narrow warm sector may precede this front, but poor lapse rates will limit instability. This low buoyancy will counter the strong shear expected, resulting in mostly weak updrafts and tempering any severe potential. Stable conditions are expected across the CONUS on D5/Thursday as high pressure shifts from the northern Plains into the OH Valley. Some modest moisture return may potentially begin across TX on D6/Friday ahead of a low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough expected to move across the southern Plains late D6/Friday and early D7/Saturday. Guidance varies on the strength and speed of this wave, limiting predictability, but some thunderstorms are possible across central/east TX and LA late D6/Friday and early D7/Saturday as this wave interacts with the return moisture. Read more

SPC Dec 8, 2024 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

9 months ago
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance is in good agreement that a deep upper trough will be over much of the central and eastern CONUS early D4/Wednesday morning. At the same time, a surface low is forecast to be over eastern PA, with an attendant cold front extending southwestward from this low across the central Carolinas, southeastern GA, and northern FL. A shortwave trough is forecast to move within the larger upper troughing, moving from the TN Valley/Southeast through the Mid-Atlantic on D4/Wednesday. This evolution will help induce a more negative tilt to the parent troughing while encouraging an eastward shift and deamplification as well. The cold front will also quickly shift eastward off the East Coast. A fairly narrow warm sector may precede this front, but poor lapse rates will limit instability. This low buoyancy will counter the strong shear expected, resulting in mostly weak updrafts and tempering any severe potential. Stable conditions are expected across the CONUS on D5/Thursday as high pressure shifts from the northern Plains into the OH Valley. Some modest moisture return may potentially begin across TX on D6/Friday ahead of a low-amplitude, southern-stream shortwave trough expected to move across the southern Plains late D6/Friday and early D7/Saturday. Guidance varies on the strength and speed of this wave, limiting predictability, but some thunderstorms are possible across central/east TX and LA late D6/Friday and early D7/Saturday as this wave interacts with the return moisture. Read more

SPC Dec 8, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

9 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of southern Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper troughing is forecast to cover much of the CONUS early Tuesday, anchored by a shortwave trough moving into the southern High Plains. This shortwave is expected to continue eastward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley, ending the period over the TN Valley. Progression of this shortwave will foster a more neutral tilt to the parent upper troughing while also significantly strengthening the mid-level flow through its eastern periphery. Consequently, a belt of 100-120 kt 500 mb flow will likely extend from AL into the central Appalachians early Wednesday morning. At the surface, a low associated with a leading shortwave trough is expected to progress from the ArkLaMiss northeastward through the TN Valley. As it does, an attendant cold front will push across the Southeast. By early Wednesday, this front will likely extend from a low over eastern PA southwestward through the eastern FL Panhandle. A moderately moist warm sector will precede this front, characterized by mid 60s dewpoints throughout much of the region. Even with this low-level moisture in place, overall buoyancy will be mitigated by poor lapse rates and relatively warm profiles. While buoyancy will be minimal (i.e. less than 750 J/kg), surface-based storms appear probable along and just ahead of the front during the afternoon across portions of southern AL, southwest GA, and the adjacent FL Panhandle. The strengthening low to mid-level flow will result in long hodographs indicative of an environment that supports organized storm structures. A gradually narrowing warm sector will likely limit the eastern extent of the severe threat. ..Mosier.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC Dec 8, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

9 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of southern Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper troughing is forecast to cover much of the CONUS early Tuesday, anchored by a shortwave trough moving into the southern High Plains. This shortwave is expected to continue eastward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley, ending the period over the TN Valley. Progression of this shortwave will foster a more neutral tilt to the parent upper troughing while also significantly strengthening the mid-level flow through its eastern periphery. Consequently, a belt of 100-120 kt 500 mb flow will likely extend from AL into the central Appalachians early Wednesday morning. At the surface, a low associated with a leading shortwave trough is expected to progress from the ArkLaMiss northeastward through the TN Valley. As it does, an attendant cold front will push across the Southeast. By early Wednesday, this front will likely extend from a low over eastern PA southwestward through the eastern FL Panhandle. A moderately moist warm sector will precede this front, characterized by mid 60s dewpoints throughout much of the region. Even with this low-level moisture in place, overall buoyancy will be mitigated by poor lapse rates and relatively warm profiles. While buoyancy will be minimal (i.e. less than 750 J/kg), surface-based storms appear probable along and just ahead of the front during the afternoon across portions of southern AL, southwest GA, and the adjacent FL Panhandle. The strengthening low to mid-level flow will result in long hodographs indicative of an environment that supports organized storm structures. A gradually narrowing warm sector will likely limit the eastern extent of the severe threat. ..Mosier.. 12/08/2024 Read more

SPC Dec 8, 2024 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

9 months ago
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Sun Dec 08 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AL...SOUTHWEST GA...AND THE ADJACENT FL PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of southern Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the adjacent Florida Panhandle on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Deep upper troughing is forecast to cover much of the CONUS early Tuesday, anchored by a shortwave trough moving into the southern High Plains. This shortwave is expected to continue eastward across the southern Plains and Lower MS Valley, ending the period over the TN Valley. Progression of this shortwave will foster a more neutral tilt to the parent upper troughing while also significantly strengthening the mid-level flow through its eastern periphery. Consequently, a belt of 100-120 kt 500 mb flow will likely extend from AL into the central Appalachians early Wednesday morning. At the surface, a low associated with a leading shortwave trough is expected to progress from the ArkLaMiss northeastward through the TN Valley. As it does, an attendant cold front will push across the Southeast. By early Wednesday, this front will likely extend from a low over eastern PA southwestward through the eastern FL Panhandle. A moderately moist warm sector will precede this front, characterized by mid 60s dewpoints throughout much of the region. Even with this low-level moisture in place, overall buoyancy will be mitigated by poor lapse rates and relatively warm profiles. While buoyancy will be minimal (i.e. less than 750 J/kg), surface-based storms appear probable along and just ahead of the front during the afternoon across portions of southern AL, southwest GA, and the adjacent FL Panhandle. The strengthening low to mid-level flow will result in long hodographs indicative of an environment that supports organized storm structures. A gradually narrowing warm sector will likely limit the eastern extent of the severe threat. ..Mosier.. 12/08/2024 Read more