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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes. Weak mid-level warm advection will continue to support isolated thunderstorms through this afternoon across parts of central and eastern TX. Recent Hi-res guidance also suggests storms will gradually decrease in coverage with lightning becoming more sporadic through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Pacific Northwest with weak buoyancy and steepening mid-level lapse rates ahead of the advancing Pacific Trough. Severe storms are not expected, see the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024/ ...TX... Broad southwest flow aloft will maintain mid-level warm/moist advection and persistent showers and isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. It appears the highest probability of lightning will be this afternoon, with decreasing coverage after dark. No severe storms are expected. ...Northwest WA... A few thunderstorms are possible this evening and tonight over northwest WA as a progressive upper trough and associated cold pocket aloft moves into the area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes. Weak mid-level warm advection will continue to support isolated thunderstorms through this afternoon across parts of central and eastern TX. Recent Hi-res guidance also suggests storms will gradually decrease in coverage with lightning becoming more sporadic through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Pacific Northwest with weak buoyancy and steepening mid-level lapse rates ahead of the advancing Pacific Trough. Severe storms are not expected, see the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024/ ...TX... Broad southwest flow aloft will maintain mid-level warm/moist advection and persistent showers and isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. It appears the highest probability of lightning will be this afternoon, with decreasing coverage after dark. No severe storms are expected. ...Northwest WA... A few thunderstorms are possible this evening and tonight over northwest WA as a progressive upper trough and associated cold pocket aloft moves into the area. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0147 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes. Weak mid-level warm advection will continue to support isolated thunderstorms through this afternoon across parts of central and eastern TX. Recent Hi-res guidance also suggests storms will gradually decrease in coverage with lightning becoming more sporadic through tonight. Isolated thunderstorms are possible over parts of the Pacific Northwest with weak buoyancy and steepening mid-level lapse rates ahead of the advancing Pacific Trough. Severe storms are not expected, see the prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 12/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024/ ...TX... Broad southwest flow aloft will maintain mid-level warm/moist advection and persistent showers and isolated thunderstorms through the forecast period. It appears the highest probability of lightning will be this afternoon, with decreasing coverage after dark. No severe storms are expected. ...Northwest WA... A few thunderstorms are possible this evening and tonight over northwest WA as a progressive upper trough and associated cold pocket aloft moves into the area. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will deepen across the central CONUS, encouraging appreciable low-level moisture return across portions of the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast on Monday. The approaching mid-level trough, and increasing low-level flow/advection over the Lower MS Valley, will result in strengthening vertical wind shear, depicted as modestly curved but elongated hodographs in forecast soundings. However, tropospheric lapse rates are forecast to be poor, with forecast soundings depicting thin SBCAPE under 500 J/kg, constrained mainly below 500 mb. As such, buoyancy continues to appear too scant for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook. However, given the available wind shear and adequate synoptic forcing for thunderstorms, the need for severe probabilities may increase over the Lower MS Valley if greater buoyancy than what is forecast becomes apparent. ..Squitieri.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will deepen across the central CONUS, encouraging appreciable low-level moisture return across portions of the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast on Monday. The approaching mid-level trough, and increasing low-level flow/advection over the Lower MS Valley, will result in strengthening vertical wind shear, depicted as modestly curved but elongated hodographs in forecast soundings. However, tropospheric lapse rates are forecast to be poor, with forecast soundings depicting thin SBCAPE under 500 J/kg, constrained mainly below 500 mb. As such, buoyancy continues to appear too scant for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook. However, given the available wind shear and adequate synoptic forcing for thunderstorms, the need for severe probabilities may increase over the Lower MS Valley if greater buoyancy than what is forecast becomes apparent. ..Squitieri.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will deepen across the central CONUS, encouraging appreciable low-level moisture return across portions of the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast on Monday. The approaching mid-level trough, and increasing low-level flow/advection over the Lower MS Valley, will result in strengthening vertical wind shear, depicted as modestly curved but elongated hodographs in forecast soundings. However, tropospheric lapse rates are forecast to be poor, with forecast soundings depicting thin SBCAPE under 500 J/kg, constrained mainly below 500 mb. As such, buoyancy continues to appear too scant for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook. However, given the available wind shear and adequate synoptic forcing for thunderstorms, the need for severe probabilities may increase over the Lower MS Valley if greater buoyancy than what is forecast becomes apparent. ..Squitieri.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will deepen across the central CONUS, encouraging appreciable low-level moisture return across portions of the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast on Monday. The approaching mid-level trough, and increasing low-level flow/advection over the Lower MS Valley, will result in strengthening vertical wind shear, depicted as modestly curved but elongated hodographs in forecast soundings. However, tropospheric lapse rates are forecast to be poor, with forecast soundings depicting thin SBCAPE under 500 J/kg, constrained mainly below 500 mb. As such, buoyancy continues to appear too scant for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook. However, given the available wind shear and adequate synoptic forcing for thunderstorms, the need for severe probabilities may increase over the Lower MS Valley if greater buoyancy than what is forecast becomes apparent. ..Squitieri.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will deepen across the central CONUS, encouraging appreciable low-level moisture return across portions of the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast on Monday. The approaching mid-level trough, and increasing low-level flow/advection over the Lower MS Valley, will result in strengthening vertical wind shear, depicted as modestly curved but elongated hodographs in forecast soundings. However, tropospheric lapse rates are forecast to be poor, with forecast soundings depicting thin SBCAPE under 500 J/kg, constrained mainly below 500 mb. As such, buoyancy continues to appear too scant for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook. However, given the available wind shear and adequate synoptic forcing for thunderstorms, the need for severe probabilities may increase over the Lower MS Valley if greater buoyancy than what is forecast becomes apparent. ..Squitieri.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0121 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible from the Lower Mississippi Valley into much of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. The probability for severe thunderstorms is low. ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will deepen across the central CONUS, encouraging appreciable low-level moisture return across portions of the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast on Monday. The approaching mid-level trough, and increasing low-level flow/advection over the Lower MS Valley, will result in strengthening vertical wind shear, depicted as modestly curved but elongated hodographs in forecast soundings. However, tropospheric lapse rates are forecast to be poor, with forecast soundings depicting thin SBCAPE under 500 J/kg, constrained mainly below 500 mb. As such, buoyancy continues to appear too scant for the introduction of severe probabilities this outlook. However, given the available wind shear and adequate synoptic forcing for thunderstorms, the need for severe probabilities may increase over the Lower MS Valley if greater buoyancy than what is forecast becomes apparent. ..Squitieri.. 12/07/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Sunday across the country. An upper wave, evident in water-vapor imagery over the northeastern Pacific, is forecast to migrate into the northern Rockies/northern High Plains over the next 48 hours. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated across the northern Plains in response with a trailing cold front across the central Plains and lee troughing along the southern High Plains. Dry/windy conditions are probable within the post-frontal regime as well as in the immediate lee of the central/southern Rockies of CO and NM. Latest guidance suggests areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible within both regimes, though appear most probable across central CO into eastern NM. Despite this potential, above average 30-day precipitation totals have resulted in low ERCs for much of the Plains, which should mitigate most fire concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Sunday across the country. An upper wave, evident in water-vapor imagery over the northeastern Pacific, is forecast to migrate into the northern Rockies/northern High Plains over the next 48 hours. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated across the northern Plains in response with a trailing cold front across the central Plains and lee troughing along the southern High Plains. Dry/windy conditions are probable within the post-frontal regime as well as in the immediate lee of the central/southern Rockies of CO and NM. Latest guidance suggests areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible within both regimes, though appear most probable across central CO into eastern NM. Despite this potential, above average 30-day precipitation totals have resulted in low ERCs for much of the Plains, which should mitigate most fire concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Sunday across the country. An upper wave, evident in water-vapor imagery over the northeastern Pacific, is forecast to migrate into the northern Rockies/northern High Plains over the next 48 hours. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated across the northern Plains in response with a trailing cold front across the central Plains and lee troughing along the southern High Plains. Dry/windy conditions are probable within the post-frontal regime as well as in the immediate lee of the central/southern Rockies of CO and NM. Latest guidance suggests areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible within both regimes, though appear most probable across central CO into eastern NM. Despite this potential, above average 30-day precipitation totals have resulted in low ERCs for much of the Plains, which should mitigate most fire concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Sunday across the country. An upper wave, evident in water-vapor imagery over the northeastern Pacific, is forecast to migrate into the northern Rockies/northern High Plains over the next 48 hours. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated across the northern Plains in response with a trailing cold front across the central Plains and lee troughing along the southern High Plains. Dry/windy conditions are probable within the post-frontal regime as well as in the immediate lee of the central/southern Rockies of CO and NM. Latest guidance suggests areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible within both regimes, though appear most probable across central CO into eastern NM. Despite this potential, above average 30-day precipitation totals have resulted in low ERCs for much of the Plains, which should mitigate most fire concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Sunday across the country. An upper wave, evident in water-vapor imagery over the northeastern Pacific, is forecast to migrate into the northern Rockies/northern High Plains over the next 48 hours. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated across the northern Plains in response with a trailing cold front across the central Plains and lee troughing along the southern High Plains. Dry/windy conditions are probable within the post-frontal regime as well as in the immediate lee of the central/southern Rockies of CO and NM. Latest guidance suggests areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible within both regimes, though appear most probable across central CO into eastern NM. Despite this potential, above average 30-day precipitation totals have resulted in low ERCs for much of the Plains, which should mitigate most fire concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0103 PM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D2 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1249 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for Sunday across the country. An upper wave, evident in water-vapor imagery over the northeastern Pacific, is forecast to migrate into the northern Rockies/northern High Plains over the next 48 hours. Surface cyclogenesis is anticipated across the northern Plains in response with a trailing cold front across the central Plains and lee troughing along the southern High Plains. Dry/windy conditions are probable within the post-frontal regime as well as in the immediate lee of the central/southern Rockies of CO and NM. Latest guidance suggests areas of elevated fire weather conditions are possible within both regimes, though appear most probable across central CO into eastern NM. Despite this potential, above average 30-day precipitation totals have resulted in low ERCs for much of the Plains, which should mitigate most fire concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Early-morning (06 UTC) surface observations along the southern CA coast show areas of 15-20% RH with isolated pockets of 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to persist through roughly 18 UTC before gradually abating as low to mid-level flow over the region diminishes. While pockets of elevated conditions are possible within the higher coastal terrain, latest guidance continues to suggest that the fire weather threat should remain sufficiently isolated to preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Early-morning (06 UTC) surface observations along the southern CA coast show areas of 15-20% RH with isolated pockets of 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to persist through roughly 18 UTC before gradually abating as low to mid-level flow over the region diminishes. While pockets of elevated conditions are possible within the higher coastal terrain, latest guidance continues to suggest that the fire weather threat should remain sufficiently isolated to preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Early-morning (06 UTC) surface observations along the southern CA coast show areas of 15-20% RH with isolated pockets of 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to persist through roughly 18 UTC before gradually abating as low to mid-level flow over the region diminishes. While pockets of elevated conditions are possible within the higher coastal terrain, latest guidance continues to suggest that the fire weather threat should remain sufficiently isolated to preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Early-morning (06 UTC) surface observations along the southern CA coast show areas of 15-20% RH with isolated pockets of 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to persist through roughly 18 UTC before gradually abating as low to mid-level flow over the region diminishes. While pockets of elevated conditions are possible within the higher coastal terrain, latest guidance continues to suggest that the fire weather threat should remain sufficiently isolated to preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1047 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes are needed to the D1 Fire Weather Outlook. See previous discussion for more information. ..Thornton.. 12/07/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CST Sat Dec 07 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns are expected to remain limited for today across the country. Early-morning (06 UTC) surface observations along the southern CA coast show areas of 15-20% RH with isolated pockets of 15-20 mph winds. These conditions are expected to persist through roughly 18 UTC before gradually abating as low to mid-level flow over the region diminishes. While pockets of elevated conditions are possible within the higher coastal terrain, latest guidance continues to suggest that the fire weather threat should remain sufficiently isolated to preclude highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more