SPC Sep 23, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

9 months 4 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is uncertain, but limited, on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough across the Midwest into the Mid-South is expected to evolve into a strong trough in the lower Great Lakes/Northeast and a cut-off low in the Ozarks. A surface cold front is expected to be positioned from near the upper Ohio Valley southward into Mid-South and westward into the southern Plains. In the Gulf of Mexico, current NHC forecasts show a hurricane moving north-northeastward in parts of the eastern Gulf. ...Western/central New York... A narrow warm sector may exist ahead of the cold front. Subtle forcing from the trough to the north may promote storm development during the afternoon. Given the potential for cloud cover/precipitation early in the day, along with the strongest mid-level ascent arriving during the evening, uncertainty is too high for severe probabilities. ...Mid-South/Southeast... Strong mid-level flow around the eventual cut-off low could allow for some storm organization near the cold front. There is a fairly strong signal for precipitation to be ongoing during morning and into the afternoon. Surface-based destabilization is at best uncertain and perhaps not very likely. No severe probabilities will be added. ...Portions of the Florida Peninsula... Given the forecast track of the tropical cyclone by NHC and available model guidance, there is some potential for low-level wind fields to increase in parts of the southern/central Florida Peninsula towards Thursday morning. Given the trough to the north of the expected hurricane and the uncertainty of the exact position of the system and any related outer convective bands, will continue to withhold low tornado probabilities. ..Wendt.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 23, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

9 months 4 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is uncertain, but limited, on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough across the Midwest into the Mid-South is expected to evolve into a strong trough in the lower Great Lakes/Northeast and a cut-off low in the Ozarks. A surface cold front is expected to be positioned from near the upper Ohio Valley southward into Mid-South and westward into the southern Plains. In the Gulf of Mexico, current NHC forecasts show a hurricane moving north-northeastward in parts of the eastern Gulf. ...Western/central New York... A narrow warm sector may exist ahead of the cold front. Subtle forcing from the trough to the north may promote storm development during the afternoon. Given the potential for cloud cover/precipitation early in the day, along with the strongest mid-level ascent arriving during the evening, uncertainty is too high for severe probabilities. ...Mid-South/Southeast... Strong mid-level flow around the eventual cut-off low could allow for some storm organization near the cold front. There is a fairly strong signal for precipitation to be ongoing during morning and into the afternoon. Surface-based destabilization is at best uncertain and perhaps not very likely. No severe probabilities will be added. ...Portions of the Florida Peninsula... Given the forecast track of the tropical cyclone by NHC and available model guidance, there is some potential for low-level wind fields to increase in parts of the southern/central Florida Peninsula towards Thursday morning. Given the trough to the north of the expected hurricane and the uncertainty of the exact position of the system and any related outer convective bands, will continue to withhold low tornado probabilities. ..Wendt.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 23, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

9 months 4 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is uncertain, but limited, on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough across the Midwest into the Mid-South is expected to evolve into a strong trough in the lower Great Lakes/Northeast and a cut-off low in the Ozarks. A surface cold front is expected to be positioned from near the upper Ohio Valley southward into Mid-South and westward into the southern Plains. In the Gulf of Mexico, current NHC forecasts show a hurricane moving north-northeastward in parts of the eastern Gulf. ...Western/central New York... A narrow warm sector may exist ahead of the cold front. Subtle forcing from the trough to the north may promote storm development during the afternoon. Given the potential for cloud cover/precipitation early in the day, along with the strongest mid-level ascent arriving during the evening, uncertainty is too high for severe probabilities. ...Mid-South/Southeast... Strong mid-level flow around the eventual cut-off low could allow for some storm organization near the cold front. There is a fairly strong signal for precipitation to be ongoing during morning and into the afternoon. Surface-based destabilization is at best uncertain and perhaps not very likely. No severe probabilities will be added. ...Portions of the Florida Peninsula... Given the forecast track of the tropical cyclone by NHC and available model guidance, there is some potential for low-level wind fields to increase in parts of the southern/central Florida Peninsula towards Thursday morning. Given the trough to the north of the expected hurricane and the uncertainty of the exact position of the system and any related outer convective bands, will continue to withhold low tornado probabilities. ..Wendt.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 23, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

9 months 4 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is uncertain, but limited, on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough across the Midwest into the Mid-South is expected to evolve into a strong trough in the lower Great Lakes/Northeast and a cut-off low in the Ozarks. A surface cold front is expected to be positioned from near the upper Ohio Valley southward into Mid-South and westward into the southern Plains. In the Gulf of Mexico, current NHC forecasts show a hurricane moving north-northeastward in parts of the eastern Gulf. ...Western/central New York... A narrow warm sector may exist ahead of the cold front. Subtle forcing from the trough to the north may promote storm development during the afternoon. Given the potential for cloud cover/precipitation early in the day, along with the strongest mid-level ascent arriving during the evening, uncertainty is too high for severe probabilities. ...Mid-South/Southeast... Strong mid-level flow around the eventual cut-off low could allow for some storm organization near the cold front. There is a fairly strong signal for precipitation to be ongoing during morning and into the afternoon. Surface-based destabilization is at best uncertain and perhaps not very likely. No severe probabilities will be added. ...Portions of the Florida Peninsula... Given the forecast track of the tropical cyclone by NHC and available model guidance, there is some potential for low-level wind fields to increase in parts of the southern/central Florida Peninsula towards Thursday morning. Given the trough to the north of the expected hurricane and the uncertainty of the exact position of the system and any related outer convective bands, will continue to withhold low tornado probabilities. ..Wendt.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC Sep 23, 2024 1930 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

9 months 4 weeks ago
SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorm potential is uncertain, but limited, on Wednesday. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough across the Midwest into the Mid-South is expected to evolve into a strong trough in the lower Great Lakes/Northeast and a cut-off low in the Ozarks. A surface cold front is expected to be positioned from near the upper Ohio Valley southward into Mid-South and westward into the southern Plains. In the Gulf of Mexico, current NHC forecasts show a hurricane moving north-northeastward in parts of the eastern Gulf. ...Western/central New York... A narrow warm sector may exist ahead of the cold front. Subtle forcing from the trough to the north may promote storm development during the afternoon. Given the potential for cloud cover/precipitation early in the day, along with the strongest mid-level ascent arriving during the evening, uncertainty is too high for severe probabilities. ...Mid-South/Southeast... Strong mid-level flow around the eventual cut-off low could allow for some storm organization near the cold front. There is a fairly strong signal for precipitation to be ongoing during morning and into the afternoon. Surface-based destabilization is at best uncertain and perhaps not very likely. No severe probabilities will be added. ...Portions of the Florida Peninsula... Given the forecast track of the tropical cyclone by NHC and available model guidance, there is some potential for low-level wind fields to increase in parts of the southern/central Florida Peninsula towards Thursday morning. Given the trough to the north of the expected hurricane and the uncertainty of the exact position of the system and any related outer convective bands, will continue to withhold low tornado probabilities. ..Wendt.. 09/23/2024 Read more

SPC MD 2097

9 months 4 weeks ago
MD 2097 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KENTUCKY...MIDDLE/EASTERN TENNESSEE AND FAR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 2097 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0113 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Areas affected...Portions of southern Kentucky...middle/eastern Tennessee and far western North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 231813Z - 231945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Convection should gradually expand in coverage this afternoon with a few stronger multi-cell clusters possible. Isolated damaging winds are the most likely threat with the more persistent/stronger storms. Environmental conditions are not overly conducive for longevity or severity, a watch appears unlikely. DISCUSSION...As of 1810 UTC, afternoon visible and radar imagery showed scattered thunderstorms developing south of a stationary frontal zone over parts of the TN Valley and southern KY. Driven primarily by strong diurnal heating of a seasonably moist (upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints) air mass, SPC mesoanalysis shows 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE, despite poor mid-level lapse rates. In the absence of significant height falls aloft, convective coverage should gradually increase through the afternoon with continued heating. As storms deepen, flow aloft will also gradually increase from the west. While area VADs are not overly strong, especially with eastward extent, 25-30 kt of flow aloft will support some potential for organization into multi-cell clusters. Damaging winds associated with water-loaded downdrafts appear to be the most likely threat given poor low and mid-level lapse rates and limited storm organization. Hi-res model guidance and observational trends suggest storms will gradually move eastward into parts of eastern TN/southeast KY and the western Carolinas later this afternoon/evening. An isolated risk for damaging winds will accompany the stronger/more persistent clusters. However, the lack of more significant upper-level support, poor lapse rates and marginal deep-layer shear suggests the threat is unlikely to be widespread enough to warrant a WW. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 09/23/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX... HUN... LAT...LON 37698535 36928641 36288662 35678647 35258610 35168512 34918339 34948284 35218233 35468170 35818142 36348144 37378254 37738517 37698535 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

9 months 4 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on Tuesday across the CONUS. A ridge will build in across the western US, with dry and warming conditions amid generally light winds. Longwave troughing will deepen across the Plains, with some post-frontal northwesterly breezes across the High Plains. Overall, cool conditions will keep relative humidity values high and there is potential for wetting rainfall Monday into Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

9 months 4 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on Tuesday across the CONUS. A ridge will build in across the western US, with dry and warming conditions amid generally light winds. Longwave troughing will deepen across the Plains, with some post-frontal northwesterly breezes across the High Plains. Overall, cool conditions will keep relative humidity values high and there is potential for wetting rainfall Monday into Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

9 months 4 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on Tuesday across the CONUS. A ridge will build in across the western US, with dry and warming conditions amid generally light winds. Longwave troughing will deepen across the Plains, with some post-frontal northwesterly breezes across the High Plains. Overall, cool conditions will keep relative humidity values high and there is potential for wetting rainfall Monday into Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

9 months 4 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on Tuesday across the CONUS. A ridge will build in across the western US, with dry and warming conditions amid generally light winds. Longwave troughing will deepen across the Plains, with some post-frontal northwesterly breezes across the High Plains. Overall, cool conditions will keep relative humidity values high and there is potential for wetting rainfall Monday into Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

9 months 4 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on Tuesday across the CONUS. A ridge will build in across the western US, with dry and warming conditions amid generally light winds. Longwave troughing will deepen across the Plains, with some post-frontal northwesterly breezes across the High Plains. Overall, cool conditions will keep relative humidity values high and there is potential for wetting rainfall Monday into Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

9 months 4 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on Tuesday across the CONUS. A ridge will build in across the western US, with dry and warming conditions amid generally light winds. Longwave troughing will deepen across the Plains, with some post-frontal northwesterly breezes across the High Plains. Overall, cool conditions will keep relative humidity values high and there is potential for wetting rainfall Monday into Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

9 months 4 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on Tuesday across the CONUS. A ridge will build in across the western US, with dry and warming conditions amid generally light winds. Longwave troughing will deepen across the Plains, with some post-frontal northwesterly breezes across the High Plains. Overall, cool conditions will keep relative humidity values high and there is potential for wetting rainfall Monday into Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

9 months 4 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on Tuesday across the CONUS. A ridge will build in across the western US, with dry and warming conditions amid generally light winds. Longwave troughing will deepen across the Plains, with some post-frontal northwesterly breezes across the High Plains. Overall, cool conditions will keep relative humidity values high and there is potential for wetting rainfall Monday into Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

9 months 4 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on Tuesday across the CONUS. A ridge will build in across the western US, with dry and warming conditions amid generally light winds. Longwave troughing will deepen across the Plains, with some post-frontal northwesterly breezes across the High Plains. Overall, cool conditions will keep relative humidity values high and there is potential for wetting rainfall Monday into Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

9 months 4 weeks ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0118 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/23/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will remain low on Tuesday across the CONUS. A ridge will build in across the western US, with dry and warming conditions amid generally light winds. Longwave troughing will deepen across the Plains, with some post-frontal northwesterly breezes across the High Plains. Overall, cool conditions will keep relative humidity values high and there is potential for wetting rainfall Monday into Tuesday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Apples shriveling on the tree in Fayette County, Ohio

9 months 4 weeks ago
Apples were shriveling on the trees in a Fayette County orchard. A 17-acre wetland preserve has been dry for the past month. What would have been the deepest part of the wetland where the water was about five feet deep has cracks in the soil about six inches deep. Farmers’ Advance (Camden, Mich.), Sept 23, 2024

Hurricane John Forecast Discussion Number 5

9 months 4 weeks ago
Issued at 1200 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 231758 TCDEP5 Hurricane John Special Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102024 1200 PM CST Mon Sep 23 2024 John has continued to rapidly intensify and the latest images suggest an eye may be forming on visible and infrared imagery. Recent objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range from 65 to 85 kt. The current intensity estimate is increased to 75 kt. The new NHC intensity forecast shows John strengthening to a major hurricane prior to reaching the coast of Mexico. It is possible that the hurricane could strengthen more than forecast. Only a minor tweak was made to the previous NHC track forecast to show landfall occurring a bit sooner. Residents of Mexico in the hurricane warning area should rush preparations to completion this afternoon. KEY MESSAGES: 1. John is expected to continue rapidly intensifying, and is forecast to become a major hurricane before the center reaches the coast of southern Mexico within the Hurricane Warning area on Tuesday. Damaging hurricane-force winds and a dangerous storm surge are expected within portions of the warning area. 2. John will bring very heavy rainfall to coastal portions of southern Mexico through this week. This heavy rainfall will likely cause significant and possibly catastrophic, life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides to the Mexican States of Chiapas, Oaxaca, and southeast Guerrero, particularly in areas near the coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1800Z 15.1N 98.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 15.3N 98.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 15.8N 97.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 16.1N 97.6W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 48H 25/1200Z 16.3N 97.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 60H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen
NHC Webmaster

Hurricane John Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5

9 months 4 weeks ago
Issued at 1800 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 231757 PWSEP5 HURRICANE JOHN SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102024 1800 UTC MON SEP 23 2024 AT 1800Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOHN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS ...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 100W 34 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 4(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ACAPULCO 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) 4(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) P MALDONADO 34 16 45(61) 10(71) 2(73) X(73) X(73) X(73) P MALDONADO 50 1 12(13) 9(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) P MALDONADO 64 X 6( 6) 4(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) P ANGEL 34 2 25(27) 33(60) 6(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) P ANGEL 50 X 2( 2) 12(14) 6(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) P ANGEL 64 X X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HUATULCO 34 X 6( 6) 19(25) 5(30) X(30) X(30) X(30) HUATULCO 50 X X( X) 6( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) HUATULCO 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 95W 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN
NHC Webmaster