Aggregator

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and parts of the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC/southeast NC... Latest forecast track guidance from the National Hurricane Center has Hurricane Helene over the eastern Gulf of Mexico (about 225 miles west-southwest of SRQ) early Thursday morning. This system is forecast to continue northward and make landfall in the FL Big Bend vicinity just east of AAF Thursday evening. As the storm moves northward throughout the day, the strong wind field accompanying it will expand northward as well, beginning over the FL Peninsula Thursday morning before reaching into GA during the afternoon and into SC by Thursday evening. These increased winds will result in long, looping hodographs with more than enough low-level shear to support tornadogenesis. As such, buoyancy-related updraft strength/persistence will be the primary factor determining thunderstorm severity and overall tornado potential and frequency. Initial rainbands will likely be impacting the west coast of the FL Peninsula at the beginning of the period before gradually spreading northward/northeastward throughout the day as the system moves northward. Tornadoes are most likely within the low-topped convection within these rainbands, so a low-probability tornado risk will begin early across the FL Peninsula before spreading northeastward over time. A relatively greater tornado risk is anticipated later, with best overlap between these rainbands and the strong low/mid-level flow beginning over FL during the late afternoon and moving into GA and SC during the evening and overnight. Highest tornado potential is still anticipated across coastal GA and SC Low Country after 00Z Friday. ...Southern New England/Hudson Valley... A compact upper low is forecast to progress eastward across southern Quebec and adjacent portions of New England on Thursday. Strong large-scale forcing for ascent will aid in the development of a convective line during the afternoon from southern New England into the Hudson Valley. Buoyancy will be modest, but enhanced mid-level flow through the base of the upper low will support moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear. Consequently, a few stronger storms capable of damaging gusts are possible. Overall coverage of damaging gusts is currently expected to remain below 5%. ..Mosier.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and parts of the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC/southeast NC... Latest forecast track guidance from the National Hurricane Center has Hurricane Helene over the eastern Gulf of Mexico (about 225 miles west-southwest of SRQ) early Thursday morning. This system is forecast to continue northward and make landfall in the FL Big Bend vicinity just east of AAF Thursday evening. As the storm moves northward throughout the day, the strong wind field accompanying it will expand northward as well, beginning over the FL Peninsula Thursday morning before reaching into GA during the afternoon and into SC by Thursday evening. These increased winds will result in long, looping hodographs with more than enough low-level shear to support tornadogenesis. As such, buoyancy-related updraft strength/persistence will be the primary factor determining thunderstorm severity and overall tornado potential and frequency. Initial rainbands will likely be impacting the west coast of the FL Peninsula at the beginning of the period before gradually spreading northward/northeastward throughout the day as the system moves northward. Tornadoes are most likely within the low-topped convection within these rainbands, so a low-probability tornado risk will begin early across the FL Peninsula before spreading northeastward over time. A relatively greater tornado risk is anticipated later, with best overlap between these rainbands and the strong low/mid-level flow beginning over FL during the late afternoon and moving into GA and SC during the evening and overnight. Highest tornado potential is still anticipated across coastal GA and SC Low Country after 00Z Friday. ...Southern New England/Hudson Valley... A compact upper low is forecast to progress eastward across southern Quebec and adjacent portions of New England on Thursday. Strong large-scale forcing for ascent will aid in the development of a convective line during the afternoon from southern New England into the Hudson Valley. Buoyancy will be modest, but enhanced mid-level flow through the base of the upper low will support moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear. Consequently, a few stronger storms capable of damaging gusts are possible. Overall coverage of damaging gusts is currently expected to remain below 5%. ..Mosier.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and parts of the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC/southeast NC... Latest forecast track guidance from the National Hurricane Center has Hurricane Helene over the eastern Gulf of Mexico (about 225 miles west-southwest of SRQ) early Thursday morning. This system is forecast to continue northward and make landfall in the FL Big Bend vicinity just east of AAF Thursday evening. As the storm moves northward throughout the day, the strong wind field accompanying it will expand northward as well, beginning over the FL Peninsula Thursday morning before reaching into GA during the afternoon and into SC by Thursday evening. These increased winds will result in long, looping hodographs with more than enough low-level shear to support tornadogenesis. As such, buoyancy-related updraft strength/persistence will be the primary factor determining thunderstorm severity and overall tornado potential and frequency. Initial rainbands will likely be impacting the west coast of the FL Peninsula at the beginning of the period before gradually spreading northward/northeastward throughout the day as the system moves northward. Tornadoes are most likely within the low-topped convection within these rainbands, so a low-probability tornado risk will begin early across the FL Peninsula before spreading northeastward over time. A relatively greater tornado risk is anticipated later, with best overlap between these rainbands and the strong low/mid-level flow beginning over FL during the late afternoon and moving into GA and SC during the evening and overnight. Highest tornado potential is still anticipated across coastal GA and SC Low Country after 00Z Friday. ...Southern New England/Hudson Valley... A compact upper low is forecast to progress eastward across southern Quebec and adjacent portions of New England on Thursday. Strong large-scale forcing for ascent will aid in the development of a convective line during the afternoon from southern New England into the Hudson Valley. Buoyancy will be modest, but enhanced mid-level flow through the base of the upper low will support moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear. Consequently, a few stronger storms capable of damaging gusts are possible. Overall coverage of damaging gusts is currently expected to remain below 5%. ..Mosier.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and parts of the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC/southeast NC... Latest forecast track guidance from the National Hurricane Center has Hurricane Helene over the eastern Gulf of Mexico (about 225 miles west-southwest of SRQ) early Thursday morning. This system is forecast to continue northward and make landfall in the FL Big Bend vicinity just east of AAF Thursday evening. As the storm moves northward throughout the day, the strong wind field accompanying it will expand northward as well, beginning over the FL Peninsula Thursday morning before reaching into GA during the afternoon and into SC by Thursday evening. These increased winds will result in long, looping hodographs with more than enough low-level shear to support tornadogenesis. As such, buoyancy-related updraft strength/persistence will be the primary factor determining thunderstorm severity and overall tornado potential and frequency. Initial rainbands will likely be impacting the west coast of the FL Peninsula at the beginning of the period before gradually spreading northward/northeastward throughout the day as the system moves northward. Tornadoes are most likely within the low-topped convection within these rainbands, so a low-probability tornado risk will begin early across the FL Peninsula before spreading northeastward over time. A relatively greater tornado risk is anticipated later, with best overlap between these rainbands and the strong low/mid-level flow beginning over FL during the late afternoon and moving into GA and SC during the evening and overnight. Highest tornado potential is still anticipated across coastal GA and SC Low Country after 00Z Friday. ...Southern New England/Hudson Valley... A compact upper low is forecast to progress eastward across southern Quebec and adjacent portions of New England on Thursday. Strong large-scale forcing for ascent will aid in the development of a convective line during the afternoon from southern New England into the Hudson Valley. Buoyancy will be modest, but enhanced mid-level flow through the base of the upper low will support moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear. Consequently, a few stronger storms capable of damaging gusts are possible. Overall coverage of damaging gusts is currently expected to remain below 5%. ..Mosier.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and parts of the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC/southeast NC... Latest forecast track guidance from the National Hurricane Center has Hurricane Helene over the eastern Gulf of Mexico (about 225 miles west-southwest of SRQ) early Thursday morning. This system is forecast to continue northward and make landfall in the FL Big Bend vicinity just east of AAF Thursday evening. As the storm moves northward throughout the day, the strong wind field accompanying it will expand northward as well, beginning over the FL Peninsula Thursday morning before reaching into GA during the afternoon and into SC by Thursday evening. These increased winds will result in long, looping hodographs with more than enough low-level shear to support tornadogenesis. As such, buoyancy-related updraft strength/persistence will be the primary factor determining thunderstorm severity and overall tornado potential and frequency. Initial rainbands will likely be impacting the west coast of the FL Peninsula at the beginning of the period before gradually spreading northward/northeastward throughout the day as the system moves northward. Tornadoes are most likely within the low-topped convection within these rainbands, so a low-probability tornado risk will begin early across the FL Peninsula before spreading northeastward over time. A relatively greater tornado risk is anticipated later, with best overlap between these rainbands and the strong low/mid-level flow beginning over FL during the late afternoon and moving into GA and SC during the evening and overnight. Highest tornado potential is still anticipated across coastal GA and SC Low Country after 00Z Friday. ...Southern New England/Hudson Valley... A compact upper low is forecast to progress eastward across southern Quebec and adjacent portions of New England on Thursday. Strong large-scale forcing for ascent will aid in the development of a convective line during the afternoon from southern New England into the Hudson Valley. Buoyancy will be modest, but enhanced mid-level flow through the base of the upper low will support moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear. Consequently, a few stronger storms capable of damaging gusts are possible. Overall coverage of damaging gusts is currently expected to remain below 5%. ..Mosier.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and parts of the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC/southeast NC... Latest forecast track guidance from the National Hurricane Center has Hurricane Helene over the eastern Gulf of Mexico (about 225 miles west-southwest of SRQ) early Thursday morning. This system is forecast to continue northward and make landfall in the FL Big Bend vicinity just east of AAF Thursday evening. As the storm moves northward throughout the day, the strong wind field accompanying it will expand northward as well, beginning over the FL Peninsula Thursday morning before reaching into GA during the afternoon and into SC by Thursday evening. These increased winds will result in long, looping hodographs with more than enough low-level shear to support tornadogenesis. As such, buoyancy-related updraft strength/persistence will be the primary factor determining thunderstorm severity and overall tornado potential and frequency. Initial rainbands will likely be impacting the west coast of the FL Peninsula at the beginning of the period before gradually spreading northward/northeastward throughout the day as the system moves northward. Tornadoes are most likely within the low-topped convection within these rainbands, so a low-probability tornado risk will begin early across the FL Peninsula before spreading northeastward over time. A relatively greater tornado risk is anticipated later, with best overlap between these rainbands and the strong low/mid-level flow beginning over FL during the late afternoon and moving into GA and SC during the evening and overnight. Highest tornado potential is still anticipated across coastal GA and SC Low Country after 00Z Friday. ...Southern New England/Hudson Valley... A compact upper low is forecast to progress eastward across southern Quebec and adjacent portions of New England on Thursday. Strong large-scale forcing for ascent will aid in the development of a convective line during the afternoon from southern New England into the Hudson Valley. Buoyancy will be modest, but enhanced mid-level flow through the base of the upper low will support moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear. Consequently, a few stronger storms capable of damaging gusts are possible. Overall coverage of damaging gusts is currently expected to remain below 5%. ..Mosier.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and parts of the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC/southeast NC... Latest forecast track guidance from the National Hurricane Center has Hurricane Helene over the eastern Gulf of Mexico (about 225 miles west-southwest of SRQ) early Thursday morning. This system is forecast to continue northward and make landfall in the FL Big Bend vicinity just east of AAF Thursday evening. As the storm moves northward throughout the day, the strong wind field accompanying it will expand northward as well, beginning over the FL Peninsula Thursday morning before reaching into GA during the afternoon and into SC by Thursday evening. These increased winds will result in long, looping hodographs with more than enough low-level shear to support tornadogenesis. As such, buoyancy-related updraft strength/persistence will be the primary factor determining thunderstorm severity and overall tornado potential and frequency. Initial rainbands will likely be impacting the west coast of the FL Peninsula at the beginning of the period before gradually spreading northward/northeastward throughout the day as the system moves northward. Tornadoes are most likely within the low-topped convection within these rainbands, so a low-probability tornado risk will begin early across the FL Peninsula before spreading northeastward over time. A relatively greater tornado risk is anticipated later, with best overlap between these rainbands and the strong low/mid-level flow beginning over FL during the late afternoon and moving into GA and SC during the evening and overnight. Highest tornado potential is still anticipated across coastal GA and SC Low Country after 00Z Friday. ...Southern New England/Hudson Valley... A compact upper low is forecast to progress eastward across southern Quebec and adjacent portions of New England on Thursday. Strong large-scale forcing for ascent will aid in the development of a convective line during the afternoon from southern New England into the Hudson Valley. Buoyancy will be modest, but enhanced mid-level flow through the base of the upper low will support moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear. Consequently, a few stronger storms capable of damaging gusts are possible. Overall coverage of damaging gusts is currently expected to remain below 5%. ..Mosier.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and parts of the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC/southeast NC... Latest forecast track guidance from the National Hurricane Center has Hurricane Helene over the eastern Gulf of Mexico (about 225 miles west-southwest of SRQ) early Thursday morning. This system is forecast to continue northward and make landfall in the FL Big Bend vicinity just east of AAF Thursday evening. As the storm moves northward throughout the day, the strong wind field accompanying it will expand northward as well, beginning over the FL Peninsula Thursday morning before reaching into GA during the afternoon and into SC by Thursday evening. These increased winds will result in long, looping hodographs with more than enough low-level shear to support tornadogenesis. As such, buoyancy-related updraft strength/persistence will be the primary factor determining thunderstorm severity and overall tornado potential and frequency. Initial rainbands will likely be impacting the west coast of the FL Peninsula at the beginning of the period before gradually spreading northward/northeastward throughout the day as the system moves northward. Tornadoes are most likely within the low-topped convection within these rainbands, so a low-probability tornado risk will begin early across the FL Peninsula before spreading northeastward over time. A relatively greater tornado risk is anticipated later, with best overlap between these rainbands and the strong low/mid-level flow beginning over FL during the late afternoon and moving into GA and SC during the evening and overnight. Highest tornado potential is still anticipated across coastal GA and SC Low Country after 00Z Friday. ...Southern New England/Hudson Valley... A compact upper low is forecast to progress eastward across southern Quebec and adjacent portions of New England on Thursday. Strong large-scale forcing for ascent will aid in the development of a convective line during the afternoon from southern New England into the Hudson Valley. Buoyancy will be modest, but enhanced mid-level flow through the base of the upper low will support moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear. Consequently, a few stronger storms capable of damaging gusts are possible. Overall coverage of damaging gusts is currently expected to remain below 5%. ..Mosier.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Tropical Cyclone Helene is forecast to move inland across northern Florida and Georgia on Thursday. A risk for tropical-cyclone tornadoes will accompany this system, particularly from the central Florida Peninsula into southeast Georgia and parts of the Midlands and Low Country of South Carolina. ...FL/GA/SC/southeast NC... Latest forecast track guidance from the National Hurricane Center has Hurricane Helene over the eastern Gulf of Mexico (about 225 miles west-southwest of SRQ) early Thursday morning. This system is forecast to continue northward and make landfall in the FL Big Bend vicinity just east of AAF Thursday evening. As the storm moves northward throughout the day, the strong wind field accompanying it will expand northward as well, beginning over the FL Peninsula Thursday morning before reaching into GA during the afternoon and into SC by Thursday evening. These increased winds will result in long, looping hodographs with more than enough low-level shear to support tornadogenesis. As such, buoyancy-related updraft strength/persistence will be the primary factor determining thunderstorm severity and overall tornado potential and frequency. Initial rainbands will likely be impacting the west coast of the FL Peninsula at the beginning of the period before gradually spreading northward/northeastward throughout the day as the system moves northward. Tornadoes are most likely within the low-topped convection within these rainbands, so a low-probability tornado risk will begin early across the FL Peninsula before spreading northeastward over time. A relatively greater tornado risk is anticipated later, with best overlap between these rainbands and the strong low/mid-level flow beginning over FL during the late afternoon and moving into GA and SC during the evening and overnight. Highest tornado potential is still anticipated across coastal GA and SC Low Country after 00Z Friday. ...Southern New England/Hudson Valley... A compact upper low is forecast to progress eastward across southern Quebec and adjacent portions of New England on Thursday. Strong large-scale forcing for ascent will aid in the development of a convective line during the afternoon from southern New England into the Hudson Valley. Buoyancy will be modest, but enhanced mid-level flow through the base of the upper low will support moderate to strong deep-layer vertical shear. Consequently, a few stronger storms capable of damaging gusts are possible. Overall coverage of damaging gusts is currently expected to remain below 5%. ..Mosier.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon from parts of the Southeast and central/southern Appalachians to the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. Some tornado threat may develop across the Florida Peninsula by this evening, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ..Southeast and southern Appalachians... The influence of the upstream mid/upper-level trough and moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico and Helene will lead to widespread precipitation across parts of the Southeast and southern Appalachians. This will tend to limit available buoyancy in some areas, but strong to locally severe storms may occur. Favorable deep-layer winds/shear exist, especially across the southern Appalachians vicinity where a few semi-discrete supercells could occur aside from more prevalent quasi-linear convective bands. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms, before low/mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy become increasingly weak with time, and an outflow-reinforced effective front sags southward across the region. ...Texas Gulf Coast/Middle Gulf Coast... Somewhat stronger diurnal destabilization will be possible from parts of central/east Texas into Louisiana, and perhaps into Mississippi, with MLCAPE potentially increasing above 1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near a southward-moving cold front. Effective shear will generally range from 25-35 kt, and a few modestly organized storms are possible. Isolated damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms within this regime. ...Florida Peninsula and Keys... Hurricane Helene's wind field is forecast to be rather large, especially on the east side of the circulation, associated with a strengthening Helene through the afternoon and tonight. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest Helene details. This scenario will result in modestly strengthening low-level shear/SRH across the Florida Peninsula during the day, but more so into the evening and overnight after the peak diurnal instability cycle. Instability will likely remain rather weak overall, and details regarding the intensity of any outer rain bands remain uncertain. However, some tropical-cyclone tornado threat could evolve across parts of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, mainly into tonight. ...Eastern Washington/northern Idaho/northwest Montana... While buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will support thunderstorm potential late this afternoon through early evening from eastern Washington into northern Idaho and northwest Montana, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Strong deep-layer flow/shear could support a locally severe storm or two with gusty winds and possibly some hail. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon from parts of the Southeast and central/southern Appalachians to the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. Some tornado threat may develop across the Florida Peninsula by this evening, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ..Southeast and southern Appalachians... The influence of the upstream mid/upper-level trough and moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico and Helene will lead to widespread precipitation across parts of the Southeast and southern Appalachians. This will tend to limit available buoyancy in some areas, but strong to locally severe storms may occur. Favorable deep-layer winds/shear exist, especially across the southern Appalachians vicinity where a few semi-discrete supercells could occur aside from more prevalent quasi-linear convective bands. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms, before low/mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy become increasingly weak with time, and an outflow-reinforced effective front sags southward across the region. ...Texas Gulf Coast/Middle Gulf Coast... Somewhat stronger diurnal destabilization will be possible from parts of central/east Texas into Louisiana, and perhaps into Mississippi, with MLCAPE potentially increasing above 1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near a southward-moving cold front. Effective shear will generally range from 25-35 kt, and a few modestly organized storms are possible. Isolated damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms within this regime. ...Florida Peninsula and Keys... Hurricane Helene's wind field is forecast to be rather large, especially on the east side of the circulation, associated with a strengthening Helene through the afternoon and tonight. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest Helene details. This scenario will result in modestly strengthening low-level shear/SRH across the Florida Peninsula during the day, but more so into the evening and overnight after the peak diurnal instability cycle. Instability will likely remain rather weak overall, and details regarding the intensity of any outer rain bands remain uncertain. However, some tropical-cyclone tornado threat could evolve across parts of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, mainly into tonight. ...Eastern Washington/northern Idaho/northwest Montana... While buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will support thunderstorm potential late this afternoon through early evening from eastern Washington into northern Idaho and northwest Montana, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Strong deep-layer flow/shear could support a locally severe storm or two with gusty winds and possibly some hail. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon from parts of the Southeast and central/southern Appalachians to the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. Some tornado threat may develop across the Florida Peninsula by this evening, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ..Southeast and southern Appalachians... The influence of the upstream mid/upper-level trough and moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico and Helene will lead to widespread precipitation across parts of the Southeast and southern Appalachians. This will tend to limit available buoyancy in some areas, but strong to locally severe storms may occur. Favorable deep-layer winds/shear exist, especially across the southern Appalachians vicinity where a few semi-discrete supercells could occur aside from more prevalent quasi-linear convective bands. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms, before low/mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy become increasingly weak with time, and an outflow-reinforced effective front sags southward across the region. ...Texas Gulf Coast/Middle Gulf Coast... Somewhat stronger diurnal destabilization will be possible from parts of central/east Texas into Louisiana, and perhaps into Mississippi, with MLCAPE potentially increasing above 1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near a southward-moving cold front. Effective shear will generally range from 25-35 kt, and a few modestly organized storms are possible. Isolated damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms within this regime. ...Florida Peninsula and Keys... Hurricane Helene's wind field is forecast to be rather large, especially on the east side of the circulation, associated with a strengthening Helene through the afternoon and tonight. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest Helene details. This scenario will result in modestly strengthening low-level shear/SRH across the Florida Peninsula during the day, but more so into the evening and overnight after the peak diurnal instability cycle. Instability will likely remain rather weak overall, and details regarding the intensity of any outer rain bands remain uncertain. However, some tropical-cyclone tornado threat could evolve across parts of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, mainly into tonight. ...Eastern Washington/northern Idaho/northwest Montana... While buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will support thunderstorm potential late this afternoon through early evening from eastern Washington into northern Idaho and northwest Montana, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Strong deep-layer flow/shear could support a locally severe storm or two with gusty winds and possibly some hail. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon from parts of the Southeast and central/southern Appalachians to the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. Some tornado threat may develop across the Florida Peninsula by this evening, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ..Southeast and southern Appalachians... The influence of the upstream mid/upper-level trough and moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico and Helene will lead to widespread precipitation across parts of the Southeast and southern Appalachians. This will tend to limit available buoyancy in some areas, but strong to locally severe storms may occur. Favorable deep-layer winds/shear exist, especially across the southern Appalachians vicinity where a few semi-discrete supercells could occur aside from more prevalent quasi-linear convective bands. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms, before low/mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy become increasingly weak with time, and an outflow-reinforced effective front sags southward across the region. ...Texas Gulf Coast/Middle Gulf Coast... Somewhat stronger diurnal destabilization will be possible from parts of central/east Texas into Louisiana, and perhaps into Mississippi, with MLCAPE potentially increasing above 1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near a southward-moving cold front. Effective shear will generally range from 25-35 kt, and a few modestly organized storms are possible. Isolated damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms within this regime. ...Florida Peninsula and Keys... Hurricane Helene's wind field is forecast to be rather large, especially on the east side of the circulation, associated with a strengthening Helene through the afternoon and tonight. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest Helene details. This scenario will result in modestly strengthening low-level shear/SRH across the Florida Peninsula during the day, but more so into the evening and overnight after the peak diurnal instability cycle. Instability will likely remain rather weak overall, and details regarding the intensity of any outer rain bands remain uncertain. However, some tropical-cyclone tornado threat could evolve across parts of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, mainly into tonight. ...Eastern Washington/northern Idaho/northwest Montana... While buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will support thunderstorm potential late this afternoon through early evening from eastern Washington into northern Idaho and northwest Montana, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Strong deep-layer flow/shear could support a locally severe storm or two with gusty winds and possibly some hail. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon from parts of the Southeast and central/southern Appalachians to the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. Some tornado threat may develop across the Florida Peninsula by this evening, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ..Southeast and southern Appalachians... The influence of the upstream mid/upper-level trough and moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico and Helene will lead to widespread precipitation across parts of the Southeast and southern Appalachians. This will tend to limit available buoyancy in some areas, but strong to locally severe storms may occur. Favorable deep-layer winds/shear exist, especially across the southern Appalachians vicinity where a few semi-discrete supercells could occur aside from more prevalent quasi-linear convective bands. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms, before low/mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy become increasingly weak with time, and an outflow-reinforced effective front sags southward across the region. ...Texas Gulf Coast/Middle Gulf Coast... Somewhat stronger diurnal destabilization will be possible from parts of central/east Texas into Louisiana, and perhaps into Mississippi, with MLCAPE potentially increasing above 1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near a southward-moving cold front. Effective shear will generally range from 25-35 kt, and a few modestly organized storms are possible. Isolated damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms within this regime. ...Florida Peninsula and Keys... Hurricane Helene's wind field is forecast to be rather large, especially on the east side of the circulation, associated with a strengthening Helene through the afternoon and tonight. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest Helene details. This scenario will result in modestly strengthening low-level shear/SRH across the Florida Peninsula during the day, but more so into the evening and overnight after the peak diurnal instability cycle. Instability will likely remain rather weak overall, and details regarding the intensity of any outer rain bands remain uncertain. However, some tropical-cyclone tornado threat could evolve across parts of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, mainly into tonight. ...Eastern Washington/northern Idaho/northwest Montana... While buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will support thunderstorm potential late this afternoon through early evening from eastern Washington into northern Idaho and northwest Montana, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Strong deep-layer flow/shear could support a locally severe storm or two with gusty winds and possibly some hail. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon from parts of the Southeast and central/southern Appalachians to the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. Some tornado threat may develop across the Florida Peninsula by this evening, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ..Southeast and southern Appalachians... The influence of the upstream mid/upper-level trough and moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico and Helene will lead to widespread precipitation across parts of the Southeast and southern Appalachians. This will tend to limit available buoyancy in some areas, but strong to locally severe storms may occur. Favorable deep-layer winds/shear exist, especially across the southern Appalachians vicinity where a few semi-discrete supercells could occur aside from more prevalent quasi-linear convective bands. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms, before low/mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy become increasingly weak with time, and an outflow-reinforced effective front sags southward across the region. ...Texas Gulf Coast/Middle Gulf Coast... Somewhat stronger diurnal destabilization will be possible from parts of central/east Texas into Louisiana, and perhaps into Mississippi, with MLCAPE potentially increasing above 1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near a southward-moving cold front. Effective shear will generally range from 25-35 kt, and a few modestly organized storms are possible. Isolated damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms within this regime. ...Florida Peninsula and Keys... Hurricane Helene's wind field is forecast to be rather large, especially on the east side of the circulation, associated with a strengthening Helene through the afternoon and tonight. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest Helene details. This scenario will result in modestly strengthening low-level shear/SRH across the Florida Peninsula during the day, but more so into the evening and overnight after the peak diurnal instability cycle. Instability will likely remain rather weak overall, and details regarding the intensity of any outer rain bands remain uncertain. However, some tropical-cyclone tornado threat could evolve across parts of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, mainly into tonight. ...Eastern Washington/northern Idaho/northwest Montana... While buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will support thunderstorm potential late this afternoon through early evening from eastern Washington into northern Idaho and northwest Montana, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Strong deep-layer flow/shear could support a locally severe storm or two with gusty winds and possibly some hail. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon from parts of the Southeast and central/southern Appalachians to the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. Some tornado threat may develop across the Florida Peninsula by this evening, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ..Southeast and southern Appalachians... The influence of the upstream mid/upper-level trough and moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico and Helene will lead to widespread precipitation across parts of the Southeast and southern Appalachians. This will tend to limit available buoyancy in some areas, but strong to locally severe storms may occur. Favorable deep-layer winds/shear exist, especially across the southern Appalachians vicinity where a few semi-discrete supercells could occur aside from more prevalent quasi-linear convective bands. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms, before low/mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy become increasingly weak with time, and an outflow-reinforced effective front sags southward across the region. ...Texas Gulf Coast/Middle Gulf Coast... Somewhat stronger diurnal destabilization will be possible from parts of central/east Texas into Louisiana, and perhaps into Mississippi, with MLCAPE potentially increasing above 1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near a southward-moving cold front. Effective shear will generally range from 25-35 kt, and a few modestly organized storms are possible. Isolated damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms within this regime. ...Florida Peninsula and Keys... Hurricane Helene's wind field is forecast to be rather large, especially on the east side of the circulation, associated with a strengthening Helene through the afternoon and tonight. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest Helene details. This scenario will result in modestly strengthening low-level shear/SRH across the Florida Peninsula during the day, but more so into the evening and overnight after the peak diurnal instability cycle. Instability will likely remain rather weak overall, and details regarding the intensity of any outer rain bands remain uncertain. However, some tropical-cyclone tornado threat could evolve across parts of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, mainly into tonight. ...Eastern Washington/northern Idaho/northwest Montana... While buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will support thunderstorm potential late this afternoon through early evening from eastern Washington into northern Idaho and northwest Montana, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Strong deep-layer flow/shear could support a locally severe storm or two with gusty winds and possibly some hail. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1143 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE GULF COAST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon from parts of the Southeast and central/southern Appalachians to the Texas/Louisiana Gulf Coast. Some tornado threat may develop across the Florida Peninsula by this evening, in association with Tropical Cyclone Helene. ..Southeast and southern Appalachians... The influence of the upstream mid/upper-level trough and moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico and Helene will lead to widespread precipitation across parts of the Southeast and southern Appalachians. This will tend to limit available buoyancy in some areas, but strong to locally severe storms may occur. Favorable deep-layer winds/shear exist, especially across the southern Appalachians vicinity where a few semi-discrete supercells could occur aside from more prevalent quasi-linear convective bands. Locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado could accompany the strongest storms, before low/mid-level lapse rates and buoyancy become increasingly weak with time, and an outflow-reinforced effective front sags southward across the region. ...Texas Gulf Coast/Middle Gulf Coast... Somewhat stronger diurnal destabilization will be possible from parts of central/east Texas into Louisiana, and perhaps into Mississippi, with MLCAPE potentially increasing above 1500 J/kg. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible near a southward-moving cold front. Effective shear will generally range from 25-35 kt, and a few modestly organized storms are possible. Isolated damaging gusts could accompany the strongest storms within this regime. ...Florida Peninsula and Keys... Hurricane Helene's wind field is forecast to be rather large, especially on the east side of the circulation, associated with a strengthening Helene through the afternoon and tonight. Reference the National Hurricane Center for the latest Helene details. This scenario will result in modestly strengthening low-level shear/SRH across the Florida Peninsula during the day, but more so into the evening and overnight after the peak diurnal instability cycle. Instability will likely remain rather weak overall, and details regarding the intensity of any outer rain bands remain uncertain. However, some tropical-cyclone tornado threat could evolve across parts of the Florida Peninsula and Keys, mainly into tonight. ...Eastern Washington/northern Idaho/northwest Montana... While buoyancy is expected to remain quite weak, relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will support thunderstorm potential late this afternoon through early evening from eastern Washington into northern Idaho and northwest Montana, in advance of the approaching shortwave trough. Strong deep-layer flow/shear could support a locally severe storm or two with gusty winds and possibly some hail. ..Guyer/Lyons.. 09/25/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will traverse the northern portion of the western US ridge today, bringing enhanced mid-level flow over the Cascades into western Washington and Oregon. Across southwestern Oregon, sustained winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Receptive fuels in this region are spotty, which leads to low confidence in including an area at this time. In the lee of the Bighorn Mountains in Wyoming, some Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will be possible. Overall, sustained Elevated to Critical wind speeds appear brief and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will traverse the northern portion of the western US ridge today, bringing enhanced mid-level flow over the Cascades into western Washington and Oregon. Across southwestern Oregon, sustained winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Receptive fuels in this region are spotty, which leads to low confidence in including an area at this time. In the lee of the Bighorn Mountains in Wyoming, some Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will be possible. Overall, sustained Elevated to Critical wind speeds appear brief and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024 Valid 251700Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/25/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0113 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024/ ...Synopsis... A trough will traverse the northern portion of the western US ridge today, bringing enhanced mid-level flow over the Cascades into western Washington and Oregon. Across southwestern Oregon, sustained winds around 15-20 mph will overlap relative humidity reductions to around 20-25 percent. Elevated fire weather conditions will be possible. Receptive fuels in this region are spotty, which leads to low confidence in including an area at this time. In the lee of the Bighorn Mountains in Wyoming, some Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will be possible. Overall, sustained Elevated to Critical wind speeds appear brief and localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more