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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 PM CST Sun Dec 01 2024 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...20z Update... No forecast changes are needed; thunderstorm potential over the country remains minimal for today. See the previous discussion for additional details. ..Moore.. 12/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing and cyclonic flow aloft will continue to prevail east of the Rockies through the period, while an upper ridge builds over the West. A cool/stable pattern, with the influence of surface high pressure over the Southeast and continental trajectories over the Gulf of Mexico, will limit lightning potential across the CONUS through tonight. Shallow convection will persist in lake effect snow bands off Lakes Erie and Ontario, but the probability for lightning flashes should remain less than 10 percent. Across deep south Texas and vicinity, weak low-level warm advection along a coastal front near the lower Texas Coast may eventually lead to an increase in convection offshore, although the potential for thunderstorms over land is expected to remain low. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Sun Dec 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Texas Coast. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is forecast to cover the eastern CONUS early Tuesday morning, with an embedded shortwave trough progressing through the Mid-Atlantic States. Mean upper troughing is expected to continue gradually eastward throughout the day, while another shortwave trough drops southeastward through the Canadian Prairies and into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest late Tuesday/early Wednesday. At the surface, ridging associated with a dry, continental airmass is forecast to gradually shift eastward from the Mid MS Valley into the central Appalachians. Presence of this ridging and associated dry airmass will help to maintain stable conditions across the majority of the eastern CONUS. The only exception is along the TX coast. Here, easterly low-level trajectories around the surface ridging will moisten the low-levels while larger scale mass response ahead of the shortwave trough entering the northern Plains increases the low to mid-level southerly flow. Resulting warm-air advection could be enough for isolated thunderstorms along the TX coast, beginning across south TX early Tuesday before gradually shifting northward throughout the period. ..Mosier.. 12/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Sun Dec 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Texas Coast. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is forecast to cover the eastern CONUS early Tuesday morning, with an embedded shortwave trough progressing through the Mid-Atlantic States. Mean upper troughing is expected to continue gradually eastward throughout the day, while another shortwave trough drops southeastward through the Canadian Prairies and into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest late Tuesday/early Wednesday. At the surface, ridging associated with a dry, continental airmass is forecast to gradually shift eastward from the Mid MS Valley into the central Appalachians. Presence of this ridging and associated dry airmass will help to maintain stable conditions across the majority of the eastern CONUS. The only exception is along the TX coast. Here, easterly low-level trajectories around the surface ridging will moisten the low-levels while larger scale mass response ahead of the shortwave trough entering the northern Plains increases the low to mid-level southerly flow. Resulting warm-air advection could be enough for isolated thunderstorms along the TX coast, beginning across south TX early Tuesday before gradually shifting northward throughout the period. ..Mosier.. 12/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Sun Dec 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Texas Coast. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is forecast to cover the eastern CONUS early Tuesday morning, with an embedded shortwave trough progressing through the Mid-Atlantic States. Mean upper troughing is expected to continue gradually eastward throughout the day, while another shortwave trough drops southeastward through the Canadian Prairies and into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest late Tuesday/early Wednesday. At the surface, ridging associated with a dry, continental airmass is forecast to gradually shift eastward from the Mid MS Valley into the central Appalachians. Presence of this ridging and associated dry airmass will help to maintain stable conditions across the majority of the eastern CONUS. The only exception is along the TX coast. Here, easterly low-level trajectories around the surface ridging will moisten the low-levels while larger scale mass response ahead of the shortwave trough entering the northern Plains increases the low to mid-level southerly flow. Resulting warm-air advection could be enough for isolated thunderstorms along the TX coast, beginning across south TX early Tuesday before gradually shifting northward throughout the period. ..Mosier.. 12/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Sun Dec 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Texas Coast. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is forecast to cover the eastern CONUS early Tuesday morning, with an embedded shortwave trough progressing through the Mid-Atlantic States. Mean upper troughing is expected to continue gradually eastward throughout the day, while another shortwave trough drops southeastward through the Canadian Prairies and into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest late Tuesday/early Wednesday. At the surface, ridging associated with a dry, continental airmass is forecast to gradually shift eastward from the Mid MS Valley into the central Appalachians. Presence of this ridging and associated dry airmass will help to maintain stable conditions across the majority of the eastern CONUS. The only exception is along the TX coast. Here, easterly low-level trajectories around the surface ridging will moisten the low-levels while larger scale mass response ahead of the shortwave trough entering the northern Plains increases the low to mid-level southerly flow. Resulting warm-air advection could be enough for isolated thunderstorms along the TX coast, beginning across south TX early Tuesday before gradually shifting northward throughout the period. ..Mosier.. 12/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Sun Dec 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Texas Coast. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is forecast to cover the eastern CONUS early Tuesday morning, with an embedded shortwave trough progressing through the Mid-Atlantic States. Mean upper troughing is expected to continue gradually eastward throughout the day, while another shortwave trough drops southeastward through the Canadian Prairies and into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest late Tuesday/early Wednesday. At the surface, ridging associated with a dry, continental airmass is forecast to gradually shift eastward from the Mid MS Valley into the central Appalachians. Presence of this ridging and associated dry airmass will help to maintain stable conditions across the majority of the eastern CONUS. The only exception is along the TX coast. Here, easterly low-level trajectories around the surface ridging will moisten the low-levels while larger scale mass response ahead of the shortwave trough entering the northern Plains increases the low to mid-level southerly flow. Resulting warm-air advection could be enough for isolated thunderstorms along the TX coast, beginning across south TX early Tuesday before gradually shifting northward throughout the period. ..Mosier.. 12/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CST Sun Dec 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Texas Coast. No severe thunderstorms are expected. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is forecast to cover the eastern CONUS early Tuesday morning, with an embedded shortwave trough progressing through the Mid-Atlantic States. Mean upper troughing is expected to continue gradually eastward throughout the day, while another shortwave trough drops southeastward through the Canadian Prairies and into the northern Plains/Upper Midwest late Tuesday/early Wednesday. At the surface, ridging associated with a dry, continental airmass is forecast to gradually shift eastward from the Mid MS Valley into the central Appalachians. Presence of this ridging and associated dry airmass will help to maintain stable conditions across the majority of the eastern CONUS. The only exception is along the TX coast. Here, easterly low-level trajectories around the surface ridging will moisten the low-levels while larger scale mass response ahead of the shortwave trough entering the northern Plains increases the low to mid-level southerly flow. Resulting warm-air advection could be enough for isolated thunderstorms along the TX coast, beginning across south TX early Tuesday before gradually shifting northward throughout the period. ..Mosier.. 12/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across south Texas. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing will gradually shift eastward across the eastern CONUS on Monday, as a embedded shortwave trough progresses from Mid MS Valley through the TN Valley and central Appalachians. Upper ridging will persist west of the Rockies while a pair of modest cyclones impinge on its western periphery along the West Coast. Surface high pressure is forecast to build over the northern and central Plains, accompanied by a reinforcing surge of cold air. The overall pattern will maintain a dry, continental air mass across the majority of the CONUS, with no thunderstorms anticipated. The only exception is along the deep south TX coast, where warm-air advection north of a slowly deepening surface low could support isolated deep convection and a few lightning flashes. ..Mosier.. 12/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across south Texas. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing will gradually shift eastward across the eastern CONUS on Monday, as a embedded shortwave trough progresses from Mid MS Valley through the TN Valley and central Appalachians. Upper ridging will persist west of the Rockies while a pair of modest cyclones impinge on its western periphery along the West Coast. Surface high pressure is forecast to build over the northern and central Plains, accompanied by a reinforcing surge of cold air. The overall pattern will maintain a dry, continental air mass across the majority of the CONUS, with no thunderstorms anticipated. The only exception is along the deep south TX coast, where warm-air advection north of a slowly deepening surface low could support isolated deep convection and a few lightning flashes. ..Mosier.. 12/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across south Texas. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing will gradually shift eastward across the eastern CONUS on Monday, as a embedded shortwave trough progresses from Mid MS Valley through the TN Valley and central Appalachians. Upper ridging will persist west of the Rockies while a pair of modest cyclones impinge on its western periphery along the West Coast. Surface high pressure is forecast to build over the northern and central Plains, accompanied by a reinforcing surge of cold air. The overall pattern will maintain a dry, continental air mass across the majority of the CONUS, with no thunderstorms anticipated. The only exception is along the deep south TX coast, where warm-air advection north of a slowly deepening surface low could support isolated deep convection and a few lightning flashes. ..Mosier.. 12/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across south Texas. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing will gradually shift eastward across the eastern CONUS on Monday, as a embedded shortwave trough progresses from Mid MS Valley through the TN Valley and central Appalachians. Upper ridging will persist west of the Rockies while a pair of modest cyclones impinge on its western periphery along the West Coast. Surface high pressure is forecast to build over the northern and central Plains, accompanied by a reinforcing surge of cold air. The overall pattern will maintain a dry, continental air mass across the majority of the CONUS, with no thunderstorms anticipated. The only exception is along the deep south TX coast, where warm-air advection north of a slowly deepening surface low could support isolated deep convection and a few lightning flashes. ..Mosier.. 12/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across south Texas. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing will gradually shift eastward across the eastern CONUS on Monday, as a embedded shortwave trough progresses from Mid MS Valley through the TN Valley and central Appalachians. Upper ridging will persist west of the Rockies while a pair of modest cyclones impinge on its western periphery along the West Coast. Surface high pressure is forecast to build over the northern and central Plains, accompanied by a reinforcing surge of cold air. The overall pattern will maintain a dry, continental air mass across the majority of the CONUS, with no thunderstorms anticipated. The only exception is along the deep south TX coast, where warm-air advection north of a slowly deepening surface low could support isolated deep convection and a few lightning flashes. ..Mosier.. 12/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across south Texas. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing will gradually shift eastward across the eastern CONUS on Monday, as a embedded shortwave trough progresses from Mid MS Valley through the TN Valley and central Appalachians. Upper ridging will persist west of the Rockies while a pair of modest cyclones impinge on its western periphery along the West Coast. Surface high pressure is forecast to build over the northern and central Plains, accompanied by a reinforcing surge of cold air. The overall pattern will maintain a dry, continental air mass across the majority of the CONUS, with no thunderstorms anticipated. The only exception is along the deep south TX coast, where warm-air advection north of a slowly deepening surface low could support isolated deep convection and a few lightning flashes. ..Mosier.. 12/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1103 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across south Texas. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Deep upper troughing will gradually shift eastward across the eastern CONUS on Monday, as a embedded shortwave trough progresses from Mid MS Valley through the TN Valley and central Appalachians. Upper ridging will persist west of the Rockies while a pair of modest cyclones impinge on its western periphery along the West Coast. Surface high pressure is forecast to build over the northern and central Plains, accompanied by a reinforcing surge of cold air. The overall pattern will maintain a dry, continental air mass across the majority of the CONUS, with no thunderstorms anticipated. The only exception is along the deep south TX coast, where warm-air advection north of a slowly deepening surface low could support isolated deep convection and a few lightning flashes. ..Mosier.. 12/01/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 12/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will remain in place over the eastern half of the CONUS through the day on Sunday, with northwesterly mid-level flow resulting in expansive surface high pressure across much of the CONUS. With the cool surface conditions and light winds, fire concerns are largely expected to be minimal. The exception may be portions of the western Florida peninsula, where unmodified dry continental air may be present, resulting in low RH for the area along with modestly dry fuels. However, confidence in breezy conditions in the area is currently poor, so no highlights will be introduced at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 12/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will remain in place over the eastern half of the CONUS through the day on Sunday, with northwesterly mid-level flow resulting in expansive surface high pressure across much of the CONUS. With the cool surface conditions and light winds, fire concerns are largely expected to be minimal. The exception may be portions of the western Florida peninsula, where unmodified dry continental air may be present, resulting in low RH for the area along with modestly dry fuels. However, confidence in breezy conditions in the area is currently poor, so no highlights will be introduced at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 12/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will remain in place over the eastern half of the CONUS through the day on Sunday, with northwesterly mid-level flow resulting in expansive surface high pressure across much of the CONUS. With the cool surface conditions and light winds, fire concerns are largely expected to be minimal. The exception may be portions of the western Florida peninsula, where unmodified dry continental air may be present, resulting in low RH for the area along with modestly dry fuels. However, confidence in breezy conditions in the area is currently poor, so no highlights will be introduced at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 12/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will remain in place over the eastern half of the CONUS through the day on Sunday, with northwesterly mid-level flow resulting in expansive surface high pressure across much of the CONUS. With the cool surface conditions and light winds, fire concerns are largely expected to be minimal. The exception may be portions of the western Florida peninsula, where unmodified dry continental air may be present, resulting in low RH for the area along with modestly dry fuels. However, confidence in breezy conditions in the area is currently poor, so no highlights will be introduced at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 12/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will remain in place over the eastern half of the CONUS through the day on Sunday, with northwesterly mid-level flow resulting in expansive surface high pressure across much of the CONUS. With the cool surface conditions and light winds, fire concerns are largely expected to be minimal. The exception may be portions of the western Florida peninsula, where unmodified dry continental air may be present, resulting in low RH for the area along with modestly dry fuels. However, confidence in breezy conditions in the area is currently poor, so no highlights will be introduced at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024 Valid 011700Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, and no changes were made with this update. ..Weinman.. 12/01/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1212 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad mid-level trough will remain in place over the eastern half of the CONUS through the day on Sunday, with northwesterly mid-level flow resulting in expansive surface high pressure across much of the CONUS. With the cool surface conditions and light winds, fire concerns are largely expected to be minimal. The exception may be portions of the western Florida peninsula, where unmodified dry continental air may be present, resulting in low RH for the area along with modestly dry fuels. However, confidence in breezy conditions in the area is currently poor, so no highlights will be introduced at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more