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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing and cyclonic flow aloft will continue to prevail east of the Rockies through the period, while an upper ridge builds over the West. A cool/stable pattern, with the influence of surface high pressure over the Southeast and continental trajectories over the Gulf of Mexico, will limit lightning potential across the CONUS through tonight. Shallow convection will persist in lake effect snow bands off Lakes Erie and Ontario, but the probability for lightning flashes should remain less than 10 percent. Across deep south Texas and vicinity, weak low-level warm advection along a coastal front near the lower Texas Coast may eventually lead to an increase in convection offshore, although the potential for thunderstorms over land is expected to remain low. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing and cyclonic flow aloft will continue to prevail east of the Rockies through the period, while an upper ridge builds over the West. A cool/stable pattern, with the influence of surface high pressure over the Southeast and continental trajectories over the Gulf of Mexico, will limit lightning potential across the CONUS through tonight. Shallow convection will persist in lake effect snow bands off Lakes Erie and Ontario, but the probability for lightning flashes should remain less than 10 percent. Across deep south Texas and vicinity, weak low-level warm advection along a coastal front near the lower Texas Coast may eventually lead to an increase in convection offshore, although the potential for thunderstorms over land is expected to remain low. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing and cyclonic flow aloft will continue to prevail east of the Rockies through the period, while an upper ridge builds over the West. A cool/stable pattern, with the influence of surface high pressure over the Southeast and continental trajectories over the Gulf of Mexico, will limit lightning potential across the CONUS through tonight. Shallow convection will persist in lake effect snow bands off Lakes Erie and Ontario, but the probability for lightning flashes should remain less than 10 percent. Across deep south Texas and vicinity, weak low-level warm advection along a coastal front near the lower Texas Coast may eventually lead to an increase in convection offshore, although the potential for thunderstorms over land is expected to remain low. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing and cyclonic flow aloft will continue to prevail east of the Rockies through the period, while an upper ridge builds over the West. A cool/stable pattern, with the influence of surface high pressure over the Southeast and continental trajectories over the Gulf of Mexico, will limit lightning potential across the CONUS through tonight. Shallow convection will persist in lake effect snow bands off Lakes Erie and Ontario, but the probability for lightning flashes should remain less than 10 percent. Across deep south Texas and vicinity, weak low-level warm advection along a coastal front near the lower Texas Coast may eventually lead to an increase in convection offshore, although the potential for thunderstorms over land is expected to remain low. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing and cyclonic flow aloft will continue to prevail east of the Rockies through the period, while an upper ridge builds over the West. A cool/stable pattern, with the influence of surface high pressure over the Southeast and continental trajectories over the Gulf of Mexico, will limit lightning potential across the CONUS through tonight. Shallow convection will persist in lake effect snow bands off Lakes Erie and Ontario, but the probability for lightning flashes should remain less than 10 percent. Across deep south Texas and vicinity, weak low-level warm advection along a coastal front near the lower Texas Coast may eventually lead to an increase in convection offshore, although the potential for thunderstorms over land is expected to remain low. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024 Valid 011630Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale upper troughing and cyclonic flow aloft will continue to prevail east of the Rockies through the period, while an upper ridge builds over the West. A cool/stable pattern, with the influence of surface high pressure over the Southeast and continental trajectories over the Gulf of Mexico, will limit lightning potential across the CONUS through tonight. Shallow convection will persist in lake effect snow bands off Lakes Erie and Ontario, but the probability for lightning flashes should remain less than 10 percent. Across deep south Texas and vicinity, weak low-level warm advection along a coastal front near the lower Texas Coast may eventually lead to an increase in convection offshore, although the potential for thunderstorms over land is expected to remain low. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 12/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Longwave troughing and prevalent cyclonic flow aloft will continue to prevail east of the Rockies while an upper ridge builds over the West. A cool/stable pattern via the influence of high pressure and continental trajectories will considerably limit convective potential today and tonight. Shallow convection will persist in lake effect bands off Lakes Erie and Ontario, but the potential for lightning flashes should remain limited. Across far south Texas, warm advection along a coastal front near the lower Texas coast could lead to an increase in convection, although the potential for thunderstorms inland is expected to remain low. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Longwave troughing and prevalent cyclonic flow aloft will continue to prevail east of the Rockies while an upper ridge builds over the West. A cool/stable pattern via the influence of high pressure and continental trajectories will considerably limit convective potential today and tonight. Shallow convection will persist in lake effect bands off Lakes Erie and Ontario, but the potential for lightning flashes should remain limited. Across far south Texas, warm advection along a coastal front near the lower Texas coast could lead to an increase in convection, although the potential for thunderstorms inland is expected to remain low. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/01/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024 Valid 011300Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Discussion... Longwave troughing and prevalent cyclonic flow aloft will continue to prevail east of the Rockies while an upper ridge builds over the West. A cool/stable pattern via the influence of high pressure and continental trajectories will considerably limit convective potential today and tonight. Shallow convection will persist in lake effect bands off Lakes Erie and Ontario, but the potential for lightning flashes should remain limited. Across far south Texas, warm advection along a coastal front near the lower Texas coast could lead to an increase in convection, although the potential for thunderstorms inland is expected to remain low. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 12/01/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper-level trough will move off the East Coast toward the middle of this week. Additional reinforcing troughs are forecast in its wake through the end of this week and potentially into next weekend. This will keep a dry, continental polar airmass across the eastern CONUS through the extended period. Some low-level moisture will slowly drift inland across Texas and potentially the central Gulf coast by the end of the week, however this will likely be quickly shunted offshore with the arrival of another cold front before any appreciable instability can develop. Therefore, a few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast, but minimal instability should limit any severe weather threat. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper-level trough will move off the East Coast toward the middle of this week. Additional reinforcing troughs are forecast in its wake through the end of this week and potentially into next weekend. This will keep a dry, continental polar airmass across the eastern CONUS through the extended period. Some low-level moisture will slowly drift inland across Texas and potentially the central Gulf coast by the end of the week, however this will likely be quickly shunted offshore with the arrival of another cold front before any appreciable instability can develop. Therefore, a few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast, but minimal instability should limit any severe weather threat. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper-level trough will move off the East Coast toward the middle of this week. Additional reinforcing troughs are forecast in its wake through the end of this week and potentially into next weekend. This will keep a dry, continental polar airmass across the eastern CONUS through the extended period. Some low-level moisture will slowly drift inland across Texas and potentially the central Gulf coast by the end of the week, however this will likely be quickly shunted offshore with the arrival of another cold front before any appreciable instability can develop. Therefore, a few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast, but minimal instability should limit any severe weather threat. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper-level trough will move off the East Coast toward the middle of this week. Additional reinforcing troughs are forecast in its wake through the end of this week and potentially into next weekend. This will keep a dry, continental polar airmass across the eastern CONUS through the extended period. Some low-level moisture will slowly drift inland across Texas and potentially the central Gulf coast by the end of the week, however this will likely be quickly shunted offshore with the arrival of another cold front before any appreciable instability can develop. Therefore, a few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast, but minimal instability should limit any severe weather threat. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0115 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024 Valid 041200Z - 091200Z ...DISCUSSION... A strong upper-level trough will move off the East Coast toward the middle of this week. Additional reinforcing troughs are forecast in its wake through the end of this week and potentially into next weekend. This will keep a dry, continental polar airmass across the eastern CONUS through the extended period. Some low-level moisture will slowly drift inland across Texas and potentially the central Gulf coast by the end of the week, however this will likely be quickly shunted offshore with the arrival of another cold front before any appreciable instability can develop. Therefore, a few thunderstorms are possible along the Gulf Coast, but minimal instability should limit any severe weather threat. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected across the CONUS. ...Synopsis... A strong anticyclone will migrate across the eastern CONUS on Tuesday which will result in 15 to 20 knots of east-southeasterly flow across the western Gulf. As a result, some mid to upper 60s dewpoints may advect inland across south Texas. However, these dewpoints are expected to be confined to coastal areas with minimal instability present. A few thunderstorms are possible over the western Gulf, but they will likely remain offshore on Tuesday. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected across the CONUS. ...Synopsis... A strong anticyclone will migrate across the eastern CONUS on Tuesday which will result in 15 to 20 knots of east-southeasterly flow across the western Gulf. As a result, some mid to upper 60s dewpoints may advect inland across south Texas. However, these dewpoints are expected to be confined to coastal areas with minimal instability present. A few thunderstorms are possible over the western Gulf, but they will likely remain offshore on Tuesday. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected across the CONUS. ...Synopsis... A strong anticyclone will migrate across the eastern CONUS on Tuesday which will result in 15 to 20 knots of east-southeasterly flow across the western Gulf. As a result, some mid to upper 60s dewpoints may advect inland across south Texas. However, these dewpoints are expected to be confined to coastal areas with minimal instability present. A few thunderstorms are possible over the western Gulf, but they will likely remain offshore on Tuesday. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected across the CONUS. ...Synopsis... A strong anticyclone will migrate across the eastern CONUS on Tuesday which will result in 15 to 20 knots of east-southeasterly flow across the western Gulf. As a result, some mid to upper 60s dewpoints may advect inland across south Texas. However, these dewpoints are expected to be confined to coastal areas with minimal instability present. A few thunderstorms are possible over the western Gulf, but they will likely remain offshore on Tuesday. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No thunderstorms are expected across the CONUS. ...Synopsis... A strong anticyclone will migrate across the eastern CONUS on Tuesday which will result in 15 to 20 knots of east-southeasterly flow across the western Gulf. As a result, some mid to upper 60s dewpoints may advect inland across south Texas. However, these dewpoints are expected to be confined to coastal areas with minimal instability present. A few thunderstorms are possible over the western Gulf, but they will likely remain offshore on Tuesday. ..Bentley.. 12/01/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1212 AM CST Sun Dec 01 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough is expected to be situated over the eastern portions of the CONUS through the day on Monday, though some shortening of the wavelength should allow for some eastward progression through the day. At the surface, a broad area of high pressure is expected to translate southward across the central Plains, reinforcing the cool surface conditions and bringing generally light winds. As such, no significant fire concerns are expected across much of the CONUS on Monday. The exception may be western parts of the Florida peninsula, which may be in an unmodified dry continental air mass, resulting in low RH. Along with modestly dry fuels, this may create localized conditions favorable for fire spread. However, winds currently appear to be too light to introduce Elevated highlights on this outlook. ..Supinie.. 12/01/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more