Aggregator

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale cyclonic flow aloft will continue over the eastern CONUS today. With dry and/or stable conditions persisting over land, thunderstorm potential is expected to remain very low through the period. One possible exception will be with snow bands occurring in western NY off Lakes Erie and Ontario. But, any lightning flashes should remain quite sparse/isolated due to very limited instability. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 11/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Valid 301630Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Large-scale cyclonic flow aloft will continue over the eastern CONUS today. With dry and/or stable conditions persisting over land, thunderstorm potential is expected to remain very low through the period. One possible exception will be with snow bands occurring in western NY off Lakes Erie and Ontario. But, any lightning flashes should remain quite sparse/isolated due to very limited instability. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 11/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... Longwave troughing will persist east of the Rockies, with prevalent surface high pressure and cool/stable conditions. This will contribute to a virtually nil thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. An exception may the possibility of a few lightning flashes in the immediate lee of Lakes Erie and Ontario, although this potential should remain limited/sporadic overall. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 11/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... Longwave troughing will persist east of the Rockies, with prevalent surface high pressure and cool/stable conditions. This will contribute to a virtually nil thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. An exception may the possibility of a few lightning flashes in the immediate lee of Lakes Erie and Ontario, although this potential should remain limited/sporadic overall. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 11/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... Longwave troughing will persist east of the Rockies, with prevalent surface high pressure and cool/stable conditions. This will contribute to a virtually nil thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. An exception may the possibility of a few lightning flashes in the immediate lee of Lakes Erie and Ontario, although this potential should remain limited/sporadic overall. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 11/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... Longwave troughing will persist east of the Rockies, with prevalent surface high pressure and cool/stable conditions. This will contribute to a virtually nil thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. An exception may the possibility of a few lightning flashes in the immediate lee of Lakes Erie and Ontario, although this potential should remain limited/sporadic overall. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 11/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... Longwave troughing will persist east of the Rockies, with prevalent surface high pressure and cool/stable conditions. This will contribute to a virtually nil thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. An exception may the possibility of a few lightning flashes in the immediate lee of Lakes Erie and Ontario, although this potential should remain limited/sporadic overall. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 11/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... Longwave troughing will persist east of the Rockies, with prevalent surface high pressure and cool/stable conditions. This will contribute to a virtually nil thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. An exception may the possibility of a few lightning flashes in the immediate lee of Lakes Erie and Ontario, although this potential should remain limited/sporadic overall. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 11/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0640 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Valid 301300Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... Longwave troughing will persist east of the Rockies, with prevalent surface high pressure and cool/stable conditions. This will contribute to a virtually nil thunderstorm potential across the CONUS. An exception may the possibility of a few lightning flashes in the immediate lee of Lakes Erie and Ontario, although this potential should remain limited/sporadic overall. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 11/30/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A series of upper-level troughs will move across the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast U.S. during the Day 4-8 time frame. Farther west, an upper low initially near the West Coast will move slowly east across the southwest states/northern Mexico. Low-level moisture will gradually increase from east TX eastward across the central Gulf Coast Tuesday/D4-Thursday/D6, however latest GEFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance reflects only weak instability across this area and with large-scale lift remaining displaced well to the north. Although some thunderstorm potential may ultimately exist within this environment, the severe weather potential remains low. Thereafter, very limited instability suggests continued low severe potential through the remaining outlook period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A series of upper-level troughs will move across the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast U.S. during the Day 4-8 time frame. Farther west, an upper low initially near the West Coast will move slowly east across the southwest states/northern Mexico. Low-level moisture will gradually increase from east TX eastward across the central Gulf Coast Tuesday/D4-Thursday/D6, however latest GEFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance reflects only weak instability across this area and with large-scale lift remaining displaced well to the north. Although some thunderstorm potential may ultimately exist within this environment, the severe weather potential remains low. Thereafter, very limited instability suggests continued low severe potential through the remaining outlook period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A series of upper-level troughs will move across the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast U.S. during the Day 4-8 time frame. Farther west, an upper low initially near the West Coast will move slowly east across the southwest states/northern Mexico. Low-level moisture will gradually increase from east TX eastward across the central Gulf Coast Tuesday/D4-Thursday/D6, however latest GEFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance reflects only weak instability across this area and with large-scale lift remaining displaced well to the north. Although some thunderstorm potential may ultimately exist within this environment, the severe weather potential remains low. Thereafter, very limited instability suggests continued low severe potential through the remaining outlook period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A series of upper-level troughs will move across the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast U.S. during the Day 4-8 time frame. Farther west, an upper low initially near the West Coast will move slowly east across the southwest states/northern Mexico. Low-level moisture will gradually increase from east TX eastward across the central Gulf Coast Tuesday/D4-Thursday/D6, however latest GEFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance reflects only weak instability across this area and with large-scale lift remaining displaced well to the north. Although some thunderstorm potential may ultimately exist within this environment, the severe weather potential remains low. Thereafter, very limited instability suggests continued low severe potential through the remaining outlook period. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... A series of upper-level troughs will move across the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast U.S. during the Day 4-8 time frame. Farther west, an upper low initially near the West Coast will move slowly east across the southwest states/northern Mexico. Low-level moisture will gradually increase from east TX eastward across the central Gulf Coast Tuesday/D4-Thursday/D6, however latest GEFS and ECMWF ensemble guidance reflects only weak instability across this area and with large-scale lift remaining displaced well to the north. Although some thunderstorm potential may ultimately exist within this environment, the severe weather potential remains low. Thereafter, very limited instability suggests continued low severe potential through the remaining outlook period. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across south Texas. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A pronounced upper trough from eastern Canada south into the eastern U.S. will move slowly east Monday, with broad cyclonic flow persisting over most of the CONUS east of the Rockies. Surface high pressure will build south across much of the Plains, Mississippi Valley and southeast, limiting the return of appreciable low-level moisture and instability over all but portions of south Texas. Across deep south Texas, isolated thunderstorms will be possible within a moistening boundary layer contributing to modest buoyancy in the vicinity of a weak surface trough. Severe storms are not expected. ..Bunting.. 11/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across south Texas. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A pronounced upper trough from eastern Canada south into the eastern U.S. will move slowly east Monday, with broad cyclonic flow persisting over most of the CONUS east of the Rockies. Surface high pressure will build south across much of the Plains, Mississippi Valley and southeast, limiting the return of appreciable low-level moisture and instability over all but portions of south Texas. Across deep south Texas, isolated thunderstorms will be possible within a moistening boundary layer contributing to modest buoyancy in the vicinity of a weak surface trough. Severe storms are not expected. ..Bunting.. 11/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across south Texas. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A pronounced upper trough from eastern Canada south into the eastern U.S. will move slowly east Monday, with broad cyclonic flow persisting over most of the CONUS east of the Rockies. Surface high pressure will build south across much of the Plains, Mississippi Valley and southeast, limiting the return of appreciable low-level moisture and instability over all but portions of south Texas. Across deep south Texas, isolated thunderstorms will be possible within a moistening boundary layer contributing to modest buoyancy in the vicinity of a weak surface trough. Severe storms are not expected. ..Bunting.. 11/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across south Texas. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A pronounced upper trough from eastern Canada south into the eastern U.S. will move slowly east Monday, with broad cyclonic flow persisting over most of the CONUS east of the Rockies. Surface high pressure will build south across much of the Plains, Mississippi Valley and southeast, limiting the return of appreciable low-level moisture and instability over all but portions of south Texas. Across deep south Texas, isolated thunderstorms will be possible within a moistening boundary layer contributing to modest buoyancy in the vicinity of a weak surface trough. Severe storms are not expected. ..Bunting.. 11/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0208 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across south Texas. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A pronounced upper trough from eastern Canada south into the eastern U.S. will move slowly east Monday, with broad cyclonic flow persisting over most of the CONUS east of the Rockies. Surface high pressure will build south across much of the Plains, Mississippi Valley and southeast, limiting the return of appreciable low-level moisture and instability over all but portions of south Texas. Across deep south Texas, isolated thunderstorms will be possible within a moistening boundary layer contributing to modest buoyancy in the vicinity of a weak surface trough. Severe storms are not expected. ..Bunting.. 11/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A large upper-level low centered over Ontario/Quebec provinces will persist through Sunday, with an expansive area of cyclonic flow across much of the central and eastern CONUS and a ridge over the western states. Surface high pressure from the Plains states into southeast U.S. will reinforce generally dry/stable conditions. With the exception of portions of deep South Texas, appreciable low-level moisture/instability will remain offshore Sunday and Sunday night. A sporadic lightning strike will be possible in association with lake-effect snow bands in the lee of Lakes Ontario and Erie, but overall coverage should remain limited. ..Bunting.. 11/30/2024 Read more