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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will persist over the eastern U.S. today. Surface high pressure over the southern Plains/Southeast and offshore low-level flow trajectories over the Gulf and western Atlantic are expected to generally limit thunderstorm potential across the CONUS through the period, with a couple of exceptions. A front will continue southward over the FL Peninsula, with limited low-level convergence due to weak/veered boundary-layer flow. While isolated convection may occur today along/near the front, this activity should generally remain elevated. A strong inversion noted between 670-630 mb on the 12Z TBW sounding should also limit updraft intensities. Finally, low-topped convection occurring with snow bands in the lee of the Lower Great Lakes may reach sufficient depth to support charge separation and occasional lightning flashes. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 11/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1025 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2024 Valid 291630Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Broadly cyclonic flow aloft will persist over the eastern U.S. today. Surface high pressure over the southern Plains/Southeast and offshore low-level flow trajectories over the Gulf and western Atlantic are expected to generally limit thunderstorm potential across the CONUS through the period, with a couple of exceptions. A front will continue southward over the FL Peninsula, with limited low-level convergence due to weak/veered boundary-layer flow. While isolated convection may occur today along/near the front, this activity should generally remain elevated. A strong inversion noted between 670-630 mb on the 12Z TBW sounding should also limit updraft intensities. Finally, low-topped convection occurring with snow bands in the lee of the Lower Great Lakes may reach sufficient depth to support charge separation and occasional lightning flashes. ..Gleason/Wendt.. 11/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2024 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... West-northwesterly flow aloft will be prevalent today across the majority of the CONUS with eastward-progressive mid/upper-level troughing from the lower Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. With a general prevalence of surface high pressure and cool/stable conditions, thunderstorm potential will remain very limited, with a couple of possible exceptions. Scattered showers and possibly some thunderstorms may occur along and north of a southward-moving cold front from the northeast Gulf of Mexico toward the Florida Peninsula and nearby Atlantic within a marginally unstable environment. Additionally, a few lightning flashes could also occur in the immediate lee of the Lower Great Lakes, as cold air aloft overspreads the relatively warm lake waters resulting in low-topped convective snow bands. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 11/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2024 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... West-northwesterly flow aloft will be prevalent today across the majority of the CONUS with eastward-progressive mid/upper-level troughing from the lower Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. With a general prevalence of surface high pressure and cool/stable conditions, thunderstorm potential will remain very limited, with a couple of possible exceptions. Scattered showers and possibly some thunderstorms may occur along and north of a southward-moving cold front from the northeast Gulf of Mexico toward the Florida Peninsula and nearby Atlantic within a marginally unstable environment. Additionally, a few lightning flashes could also occur in the immediate lee of the Lower Great Lakes, as cold air aloft overspreads the relatively warm lake waters resulting in low-topped convective snow bands. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 11/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2024 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... West-northwesterly flow aloft will be prevalent today across the majority of the CONUS with eastward-progressive mid/upper-level troughing from the lower Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. With a general prevalence of surface high pressure and cool/stable conditions, thunderstorm potential will remain very limited, with a couple of possible exceptions. Scattered showers and possibly some thunderstorms may occur along and north of a southward-moving cold front from the northeast Gulf of Mexico toward the Florida Peninsula and nearby Atlantic within a marginally unstable environment. Additionally, a few lightning flashes could also occur in the immediate lee of the Lower Great Lakes, as cold air aloft overspreads the relatively warm lake waters resulting in low-topped convective snow bands. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 11/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2024 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... West-northwesterly flow aloft will be prevalent today across the majority of the CONUS with eastward-progressive mid/upper-level troughing from the lower Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. With a general prevalence of surface high pressure and cool/stable conditions, thunderstorm potential will remain very limited, with a couple of possible exceptions. Scattered showers and possibly some thunderstorms may occur along and north of a southward-moving cold front from the northeast Gulf of Mexico toward the Florida Peninsula and nearby Atlantic within a marginally unstable environment. Additionally, a few lightning flashes could also occur in the immediate lee of the Lower Great Lakes, as cold air aloft overspreads the relatively warm lake waters resulting in low-topped convective snow bands. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 11/29/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0643 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2024 Valid 291300Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Discussion... West-northwesterly flow aloft will be prevalent today across the majority of the CONUS with eastward-progressive mid/upper-level troughing from the lower Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast. With a general prevalence of surface high pressure and cool/stable conditions, thunderstorm potential will remain very limited, with a couple of possible exceptions. Scattered showers and possibly some thunderstorms may occur along and north of a southward-moving cold front from the northeast Gulf of Mexico toward the Florida Peninsula and nearby Atlantic within a marginally unstable environment. Additionally, a few lightning flashes could also occur in the immediate lee of the Lower Great Lakes, as cold air aloft overspreads the relatively warm lake waters resulting in low-topped convective snow bands. ..Guyer/Broyles.. 11/29/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... The large-scale pattern during the Day 4-8 period will be characterized by a series of upper troughs impacting the eastern half of the CONUS. Meanwhile, a cut-off low within the broader western upper ridge will persist off the southern CA and Baja coasts. Some thunderstorm activity is possible across parts of Texas around Days 4-5/Mon-Tue and portions of LA/southern MS into midweek. Modest southerly return flow ahead of a southeast-advancing cold front will bring 60s F dewpoints into the western/central Gulf Coast vicinity as an upper shortwave trough and surface low moves from the northern Plains through the Midwest. Large-scale ascent will remain displaced well to the north and destabilization is expected to be very modest, precluding severe potential. Otherwise, cool and stable conditions will prevail across much of the CONUS, and thunderstorm activity will be low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... The large-scale pattern during the Day 4-8 period will be characterized by a series of upper troughs impacting the eastern half of the CONUS. Meanwhile, a cut-off low within the broader western upper ridge will persist off the southern CA and Baja coasts. Some thunderstorm activity is possible across parts of Texas around Days 4-5/Mon-Tue and portions of LA/southern MS into midweek. Modest southerly return flow ahead of a southeast-advancing cold front will bring 60s F dewpoints into the western/central Gulf Coast vicinity as an upper shortwave trough and surface low moves from the northern Plains through the Midwest. Large-scale ascent will remain displaced well to the north and destabilization is expected to be very modest, precluding severe potential. Otherwise, cool and stable conditions will prevail across much of the CONUS, and thunderstorm activity will be low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... The large-scale pattern during the Day 4-8 period will be characterized by a series of upper troughs impacting the eastern half of the CONUS. Meanwhile, a cut-off low within the broader western upper ridge will persist off the southern CA and Baja coasts. Some thunderstorm activity is possible across parts of Texas around Days 4-5/Mon-Tue and portions of LA/southern MS into midweek. Modest southerly return flow ahead of a southeast-advancing cold front will bring 60s F dewpoints into the western/central Gulf Coast vicinity as an upper shortwave trough and surface low moves from the northern Plains through the Midwest. Large-scale ascent will remain displaced well to the north and destabilization is expected to be very modest, precluding severe potential. Otherwise, cool and stable conditions will prevail across much of the CONUS, and thunderstorm activity will be low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... The large-scale pattern during the Day 4-8 period will be characterized by a series of upper troughs impacting the eastern half of the CONUS. Meanwhile, a cut-off low within the broader western upper ridge will persist off the southern CA and Baja coasts. Some thunderstorm activity is possible across parts of Texas around Days 4-5/Mon-Tue and portions of LA/southern MS into midweek. Modest southerly return flow ahead of a southeast-advancing cold front will bring 60s F dewpoints into the western/central Gulf Coast vicinity as an upper shortwave trough and surface low moves from the northern Plains through the Midwest. Large-scale ascent will remain displaced well to the north and destabilization is expected to be very modest, precluding severe potential. Otherwise, cool and stable conditions will prevail across much of the CONUS, and thunderstorm activity will be low. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2024 Valid 021200Z - 071200Z ...DISCUSSION... The large-scale pattern during the Day 4-8 period will be characterized by a series of upper troughs impacting the eastern half of the CONUS. Meanwhile, a cut-off low within the broader western upper ridge will persist off the southern CA and Baja coasts. Some thunderstorm activity is possible across parts of Texas around Days 4-5/Mon-Tue and portions of LA/southern MS into midweek. Modest southerly return flow ahead of a southeast-advancing cold front will bring 60s F dewpoints into the western/central Gulf Coast vicinity as an upper shortwave trough and surface low moves from the northern Plains through the Midwest. Large-scale ascent will remain displaced well to the north and destabilization is expected to be very modest, precluding severe potential. Otherwise, cool and stable conditions will prevail across much of the CONUS, and thunderstorm activity will be low. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... The overall pattern will not change much from Day 2/Sat to Day 3/Sun. A broad upper trough will persist across the eastern CONUS while and Pacific coast upper ridge migrates modestly eastward. A lightning flash or two will remain possible across the Great Lakes within lake effect snow bands, but very minor instability will keep coverage less than 10 percent. Easterly low-level flow across the western Gulf of Mexico could also allow for a few thunderstorms in a warm advection regime just offshore the lower TX Coast. Otherwise, dry, stable surface high pressure will preclude thunderstorm activity across the rest of the country. ..Leitman.. 11/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... The overall pattern will not change much from Day 2/Sat to Day 3/Sun. A broad upper trough will persist across the eastern CONUS while and Pacific coast upper ridge migrates modestly eastward. A lightning flash or two will remain possible across the Great Lakes within lake effect snow bands, but very minor instability will keep coverage less than 10 percent. Easterly low-level flow across the western Gulf of Mexico could also allow for a few thunderstorms in a warm advection regime just offshore the lower TX Coast. Otherwise, dry, stable surface high pressure will preclude thunderstorm activity across the rest of the country. ..Leitman.. 11/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... The overall pattern will not change much from Day 2/Sat to Day 3/Sun. A broad upper trough will persist across the eastern CONUS while and Pacific coast upper ridge migrates modestly eastward. A lightning flash or two will remain possible across the Great Lakes within lake effect snow bands, but very minor instability will keep coverage less than 10 percent. Easterly low-level flow across the western Gulf of Mexico could also allow for a few thunderstorms in a warm advection regime just offshore the lower TX Coast. Otherwise, dry, stable surface high pressure will preclude thunderstorm activity across the rest of the country. ..Leitman.. 11/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... The overall pattern will not change much from Day 2/Sat to Day 3/Sun. A broad upper trough will persist across the eastern CONUS while and Pacific coast upper ridge migrates modestly eastward. A lightning flash or two will remain possible across the Great Lakes within lake effect snow bands, but very minor instability will keep coverage less than 10 percent. Easterly low-level flow across the western Gulf of Mexico could also allow for a few thunderstorms in a warm advection regime just offshore the lower TX Coast. Otherwise, dry, stable surface high pressure will preclude thunderstorm activity across the rest of the country. ..Leitman.. 11/29/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS will remain in place, while an upper-level ridge will begin to build across the West. A continuation of the overall pattern will result in generally quiet fire-weather conditions in most areas of the CONUS, with some offshore flow and resulting localized elevated fire-weather conditions possible across Southern CA. ..Karstens.. 11/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS will remain in place, while an upper-level ridge will begin to build across the West. A continuation of the overall pattern will result in generally quiet fire-weather conditions in most areas of the CONUS, with some offshore flow and resulting localized elevated fire-weather conditions possible across Southern CA. ..Karstens.. 11/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS will remain in place, while an upper-level ridge will begin to build across the West. A continuation of the overall pattern will result in generally quiet fire-weather conditions in most areas of the CONUS, with some offshore flow and resulting localized elevated fire-weather conditions possible across Southern CA. ..Karstens.. 11/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1209 AM CST Fri Nov 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A large-scale upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS will remain quasi-stationary throughout the day, allowing northwesterly flow to persist over much of the CONUS. This will reinforce cool/dry conditions for most areas, and quiet fire-weather conditions are expected. Some offshore flow is possible across parts of Southern CA that may yield locally elevated fire-weather conditions, but too localized/transient to introduce any highlights at this time. ..Karstens.. 11/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more