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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... The threat for a few tornadoes will continue this afternoon and evening over eastern North Carolina and vicinity. Thunderstorms capable of producing severe gusts and large hail should occur today in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated severe wind and hail also appears possible across parts of the Great Basin to Four Corners. ...Four Corners/Arizona... The primary adjustment was to expand the Marginal risk area southward into eastern AZ. Dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s are supporting MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 J/kg with negligible inhibition based on latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates. A deepening and expansive cumulus field across the region (including a few early attempts at convective initiation) corroborate these estimates, suggesting that adequate buoyancy resides across the region for robust convection. Regional VWPs are sampling 30-40 knot winds around 2-3 km AGL with stronger flow analyzed aloft in recent upper-air analyses. Consequently, adequate deep-layer wind shear appears to be in place to support organized convection, including a supercell or two with an attendant severe hail/wind threat, though storm coverage should remain somewhat limited due to modest forcing for ascent (largely driven by orographic lift). For additional information regarding near-term convective trends further north across the Four Corners see MCD #2072. ...North Dakota... The forecast largely remains on track across ND with only some northwestward expansion of the Slight risk/15% hail probability line. Latest high-res solutions continue to suggest that robust convection will most likely develop near the vorticity maximum (noted just to the west/southwest of Minot, ND as of 19 UTC) and propagate northeast along the warm front. This scenario aligns well with recent satellite trends with gradual convective development observed ahead of the vort max and along the front amid continued diurnal destabilization. This alignment of observed trends and recent guidance yields sufficiently high confidence to warrant adjusting the risk probabilities. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track. See the prior discussion (below) or MCDs #2071 and #2073 for the latest details regarding convective trends across coastal North Carolina and portions of the Great Basin, respectively. ..Moore.. 09/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024/ ...North Dakota into Northwest Minnesota... Elevated thunderstorms which have produced sporadic, marginally severe hail earlier this morning across parts of ND into northwest MN have generally remained sub-severe over the past couple of hours as a southerly low-level jet has gradually weakened. In the wake of this activity, a surface low should consolidate over the northern High Plains, with a front and convectively reinforced outflow expected to lift slowly northward across ND this afternoon/evening as an effective warm front. Airmass recovery is expected along/south of this boundary, with steepening mid-level lapse rates, moistening at low-levels, and daytime heating all contributing to moderate instability by later this afternoon. While low/mid-level flow will not be overly strong for most of the day, strengthening low-level southerly flow is expected again this evening as a low-level jet strengthens across the northern/central Plains. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop along/near the front late this afternoon and early evening. Enough deep-layer shear should be present to support a threat of large hail with any supercells initially. With time, some clustering should occur. A potentially greater wind threat may exist through the evening as activity spreads east-northeastward across central/eastern ND into northwest MN. A tornado or two also appears possible with any surface-based convection along/south of the front, especially this evening as 0-1 km shear increases with the strengthening low-level jet. ...Eastern North Carolina and Vicinity... The surface low off the NC/SC Coast (Potential Tropical Cyclone 8) is forecast by NHC to move northwest and inland across parts of SC through this evening. A surface trough/weak baroclinic zone extends northeastward from the low just off the NC Coast/Outer Banks. As the system moves inland, enhanced low-level flow should turn more east-southeasterly. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest that as low 70s surface dewpoints advance inland along the coastal plain of eastern NC, then only modest/filtered daytime heating will be needed to support weak boundary-layer destabilization. Sufficiently enlarged low-level hodographs should support a threat for a few tornadoes with any low-topped supercells that can form offshore and be sustained inland across coastal portions of eastern NC. The Slight Risk for this region has been maintained with only small adjustments based on recent observations and 12Z guidance. ...Great Basin into the Four Corners... A deep, closed upper low centered over CA this morning will advance slowly eastward across parts of the Great Basin through the period. An attendant south-southwesterly mid-level jet will overspread eastern portions of the Great Basin into the Four Corners region this afternoon and evening. Although cloud cover remains prevalent across parts of these areas, some daytime heating will encourage the development of weak instability by mid to late afternoon. Stronger mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are forecast across the Four Corners vicinity, where marginal supercell structures could pose an isolated hail threat. Even though instability should generally remain weak owing to limited low-level moisture, occasional strong to severe wind gusts should be the main threat with various small clusters that can form/consolidate and subsequently spread north-northeastward through the early evening. This wind threat will be locally maximized where filtered diurnal heating can help steepen low-level lapse rates. ...Central High Plains... Relatively high-based thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across parts of the central High Plains, generally along/east of a weak surface trough. This region will be mostly displaced to the east of large-scale ascent associated with the upper low over the West. Even so, a narrow zone of weak to moderate instability should be in place across parts of central NE into western KS by peak afternoon heating. Although flow through low/mid levels should remain modest for much of the afternoon, a veering wind profile with height should foster around 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear, sufficient for some updraft organization. The primary uncertainty regarding any isolated severe hail/wind threat remains whether convection will initiate or not. Have therefore not added a Marginal Risk across parts of the central High Plains with this update, but trends will continue to be monitored. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... The threat for a few tornadoes will continue this afternoon and evening over eastern North Carolina and vicinity. Thunderstorms capable of producing severe gusts and large hail should occur today in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated severe wind and hail also appears possible across parts of the Great Basin to Four Corners. ...Four Corners/Arizona... The primary adjustment was to expand the Marginal risk area southward into eastern AZ. Dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s are supporting MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 J/kg with negligible inhibition based on latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates. A deepening and expansive cumulus field across the region (including a few early attempts at convective initiation) corroborate these estimates, suggesting that adequate buoyancy resides across the region for robust convection. Regional VWPs are sampling 30-40 knot winds around 2-3 km AGL with stronger flow analyzed aloft in recent upper-air analyses. Consequently, adequate deep-layer wind shear appears to be in place to support organized convection, including a supercell or two with an attendant severe hail/wind threat, though storm coverage should remain somewhat limited due to modest forcing for ascent (largely driven by orographic lift). For additional information regarding near-term convective trends further north across the Four Corners see MCD #2072. ...North Dakota... The forecast largely remains on track across ND with only some northwestward expansion of the Slight risk/15% hail probability line. Latest high-res solutions continue to suggest that robust convection will most likely develop near the vorticity maximum (noted just to the west/southwest of Minot, ND as of 19 UTC) and propagate northeast along the warm front. This scenario aligns well with recent satellite trends with gradual convective development observed ahead of the vort max and along the front amid continued diurnal destabilization. This alignment of observed trends and recent guidance yields sufficiently high confidence to warrant adjusting the risk probabilities. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track. See the prior discussion (below) or MCDs #2071 and #2073 for the latest details regarding convective trends across coastal North Carolina and portions of the Great Basin, respectively. ..Moore.. 09/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024/ ...North Dakota into Northwest Minnesota... Elevated thunderstorms which have produced sporadic, marginally severe hail earlier this morning across parts of ND into northwest MN have generally remained sub-severe over the past couple of hours as a southerly low-level jet has gradually weakened. In the wake of this activity, a surface low should consolidate over the northern High Plains, with a front and convectively reinforced outflow expected to lift slowly northward across ND this afternoon/evening as an effective warm front. Airmass recovery is expected along/south of this boundary, with steepening mid-level lapse rates, moistening at low-levels, and daytime heating all contributing to moderate instability by later this afternoon. While low/mid-level flow will not be overly strong for most of the day, strengthening low-level southerly flow is expected again this evening as a low-level jet strengthens across the northern/central Plains. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop along/near the front late this afternoon and early evening. Enough deep-layer shear should be present to support a threat of large hail with any supercells initially. With time, some clustering should occur. A potentially greater wind threat may exist through the evening as activity spreads east-northeastward across central/eastern ND into northwest MN. A tornado or two also appears possible with any surface-based convection along/south of the front, especially this evening as 0-1 km shear increases with the strengthening low-level jet. ...Eastern North Carolina and Vicinity... The surface low off the NC/SC Coast (Potential Tropical Cyclone 8) is forecast by NHC to move northwest and inland across parts of SC through this evening. A surface trough/weak baroclinic zone extends northeastward from the low just off the NC Coast/Outer Banks. As the system moves inland, enhanced low-level flow should turn more east-southeasterly. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest that as low 70s surface dewpoints advance inland along the coastal plain of eastern NC, then only modest/filtered daytime heating will be needed to support weak boundary-layer destabilization. Sufficiently enlarged low-level hodographs should support a threat for a few tornadoes with any low-topped supercells that can form offshore and be sustained inland across coastal portions of eastern NC. The Slight Risk for this region has been maintained with only small adjustments based on recent observations and 12Z guidance. ...Great Basin into the Four Corners... A deep, closed upper low centered over CA this morning will advance slowly eastward across parts of the Great Basin through the period. An attendant south-southwesterly mid-level jet will overspread eastern portions of the Great Basin into the Four Corners region this afternoon and evening. Although cloud cover remains prevalent across parts of these areas, some daytime heating will encourage the development of weak instability by mid to late afternoon. Stronger mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are forecast across the Four Corners vicinity, where marginal supercell structures could pose an isolated hail threat. Even though instability should generally remain weak owing to limited low-level moisture, occasional strong to severe wind gusts should be the main threat with various small clusters that can form/consolidate and subsequently spread north-northeastward through the early evening. This wind threat will be locally maximized where filtered diurnal heating can help steepen low-level lapse rates. ...Central High Plains... Relatively high-based thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across parts of the central High Plains, generally along/east of a weak surface trough. This region will be mostly displaced to the east of large-scale ascent associated with the upper low over the West. Even so, a narrow zone of weak to moderate instability should be in place across parts of central NE into western KS by peak afternoon heating. Although flow through low/mid levels should remain modest for much of the afternoon, a veering wind profile with height should foster around 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear, sufficient for some updraft organization. The primary uncertainty regarding any isolated severe hail/wind threat remains whether convection will initiate or not. Have therefore not added a Marginal Risk across parts of the central High Plains with this update, but trends will continue to be monitored. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... The threat for a few tornadoes will continue this afternoon and evening over eastern North Carolina and vicinity. Thunderstorms capable of producing severe gusts and large hail should occur today in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated severe wind and hail also appears possible across parts of the Great Basin to Four Corners. ...Four Corners/Arizona... The primary adjustment was to expand the Marginal risk area southward into eastern AZ. Dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s are supporting MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 J/kg with negligible inhibition based on latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates. A deepening and expansive cumulus field across the region (including a few early attempts at convective initiation) corroborate these estimates, suggesting that adequate buoyancy resides across the region for robust convection. Regional VWPs are sampling 30-40 knot winds around 2-3 km AGL with stronger flow analyzed aloft in recent upper-air analyses. Consequently, adequate deep-layer wind shear appears to be in place to support organized convection, including a supercell or two with an attendant severe hail/wind threat, though storm coverage should remain somewhat limited due to modest forcing for ascent (largely driven by orographic lift). For additional information regarding near-term convective trends further north across the Four Corners see MCD #2072. ...North Dakota... The forecast largely remains on track across ND with only some northwestward expansion of the Slight risk/15% hail probability line. Latest high-res solutions continue to suggest that robust convection will most likely develop near the vorticity maximum (noted just to the west/southwest of Minot, ND as of 19 UTC) and propagate northeast along the warm front. This scenario aligns well with recent satellite trends with gradual convective development observed ahead of the vort max and along the front amid continued diurnal destabilization. This alignment of observed trends and recent guidance yields sufficiently high confidence to warrant adjusting the risk probabilities. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track. See the prior discussion (below) or MCDs #2071 and #2073 for the latest details regarding convective trends across coastal North Carolina and portions of the Great Basin, respectively. ..Moore.. 09/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024/ ...North Dakota into Northwest Minnesota... Elevated thunderstorms which have produced sporadic, marginally severe hail earlier this morning across parts of ND into northwest MN have generally remained sub-severe over the past couple of hours as a southerly low-level jet has gradually weakened. In the wake of this activity, a surface low should consolidate over the northern High Plains, with a front and convectively reinforced outflow expected to lift slowly northward across ND this afternoon/evening as an effective warm front. Airmass recovery is expected along/south of this boundary, with steepening mid-level lapse rates, moistening at low-levels, and daytime heating all contributing to moderate instability by later this afternoon. While low/mid-level flow will not be overly strong for most of the day, strengthening low-level southerly flow is expected again this evening as a low-level jet strengthens across the northern/central Plains. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop along/near the front late this afternoon and early evening. Enough deep-layer shear should be present to support a threat of large hail with any supercells initially. With time, some clustering should occur. A potentially greater wind threat may exist through the evening as activity spreads east-northeastward across central/eastern ND into northwest MN. A tornado or two also appears possible with any surface-based convection along/south of the front, especially this evening as 0-1 km shear increases with the strengthening low-level jet. ...Eastern North Carolina and Vicinity... The surface low off the NC/SC Coast (Potential Tropical Cyclone 8) is forecast by NHC to move northwest and inland across parts of SC through this evening. A surface trough/weak baroclinic zone extends northeastward from the low just off the NC Coast/Outer Banks. As the system moves inland, enhanced low-level flow should turn more east-southeasterly. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest that as low 70s surface dewpoints advance inland along the coastal plain of eastern NC, then only modest/filtered daytime heating will be needed to support weak boundary-layer destabilization. Sufficiently enlarged low-level hodographs should support a threat for a few tornadoes with any low-topped supercells that can form offshore and be sustained inland across coastal portions of eastern NC. The Slight Risk for this region has been maintained with only small adjustments based on recent observations and 12Z guidance. ...Great Basin into the Four Corners... A deep, closed upper low centered over CA this morning will advance slowly eastward across parts of the Great Basin through the period. An attendant south-southwesterly mid-level jet will overspread eastern portions of the Great Basin into the Four Corners region this afternoon and evening. Although cloud cover remains prevalent across parts of these areas, some daytime heating will encourage the development of weak instability by mid to late afternoon. Stronger mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are forecast across the Four Corners vicinity, where marginal supercell structures could pose an isolated hail threat. Even though instability should generally remain weak owing to limited low-level moisture, occasional strong to severe wind gusts should be the main threat with various small clusters that can form/consolidate and subsequently spread north-northeastward through the early evening. This wind threat will be locally maximized where filtered diurnal heating can help steepen low-level lapse rates. ...Central High Plains... Relatively high-based thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across parts of the central High Plains, generally along/east of a weak surface trough. This region will be mostly displaced to the east of large-scale ascent associated with the upper low over the West. Even so, a narrow zone of weak to moderate instability should be in place across parts of central NE into western KS by peak afternoon heating. Although flow through low/mid levels should remain modest for much of the afternoon, a veering wind profile with height should foster around 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear, sufficient for some updraft organization. The primary uncertainty regarding any isolated severe hail/wind threat remains whether convection will initiate or not. Have therefore not added a Marginal Risk across parts of the central High Plains with this update, but trends will continue to be monitored. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... The threat for a few tornadoes will continue this afternoon and evening over eastern North Carolina and vicinity. Thunderstorms capable of producing severe gusts and large hail should occur today in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated severe wind and hail also appears possible across parts of the Great Basin to Four Corners. ...Four Corners/Arizona... The primary adjustment was to expand the Marginal risk area southward into eastern AZ. Dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s are supporting MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 J/kg with negligible inhibition based on latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates. A deepening and expansive cumulus field across the region (including a few early attempts at convective initiation) corroborate these estimates, suggesting that adequate buoyancy resides across the region for robust convection. Regional VWPs are sampling 30-40 knot winds around 2-3 km AGL with stronger flow analyzed aloft in recent upper-air analyses. Consequently, adequate deep-layer wind shear appears to be in place to support organized convection, including a supercell or two with an attendant severe hail/wind threat, though storm coverage should remain somewhat limited due to modest forcing for ascent (largely driven by orographic lift). For additional information regarding near-term convective trends further north across the Four Corners see MCD #2072. ...North Dakota... The forecast largely remains on track across ND with only some northwestward expansion of the Slight risk/15% hail probability line. Latest high-res solutions continue to suggest that robust convection will most likely develop near the vorticity maximum (noted just to the west/southwest of Minot, ND as of 19 UTC) and propagate northeast along the warm front. This scenario aligns well with recent satellite trends with gradual convective development observed ahead of the vort max and along the front amid continued diurnal destabilization. This alignment of observed trends and recent guidance yields sufficiently high confidence to warrant adjusting the risk probabilities. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track. See the prior discussion (below) or MCDs #2071 and #2073 for the latest details regarding convective trends across coastal North Carolina and portions of the Great Basin, respectively. ..Moore.. 09/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024/ ...North Dakota into Northwest Minnesota... Elevated thunderstorms which have produced sporadic, marginally severe hail earlier this morning across parts of ND into northwest MN have generally remained sub-severe over the past couple of hours as a southerly low-level jet has gradually weakened. In the wake of this activity, a surface low should consolidate over the northern High Plains, with a front and convectively reinforced outflow expected to lift slowly northward across ND this afternoon/evening as an effective warm front. Airmass recovery is expected along/south of this boundary, with steepening mid-level lapse rates, moistening at low-levels, and daytime heating all contributing to moderate instability by later this afternoon. While low/mid-level flow will not be overly strong for most of the day, strengthening low-level southerly flow is expected again this evening as a low-level jet strengthens across the northern/central Plains. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop along/near the front late this afternoon and early evening. Enough deep-layer shear should be present to support a threat of large hail with any supercells initially. With time, some clustering should occur. A potentially greater wind threat may exist through the evening as activity spreads east-northeastward across central/eastern ND into northwest MN. A tornado or two also appears possible with any surface-based convection along/south of the front, especially this evening as 0-1 km shear increases with the strengthening low-level jet. ...Eastern North Carolina and Vicinity... The surface low off the NC/SC Coast (Potential Tropical Cyclone 8) is forecast by NHC to move northwest and inland across parts of SC through this evening. A surface trough/weak baroclinic zone extends northeastward from the low just off the NC Coast/Outer Banks. As the system moves inland, enhanced low-level flow should turn more east-southeasterly. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest that as low 70s surface dewpoints advance inland along the coastal plain of eastern NC, then only modest/filtered daytime heating will be needed to support weak boundary-layer destabilization. Sufficiently enlarged low-level hodographs should support a threat for a few tornadoes with any low-topped supercells that can form offshore and be sustained inland across coastal portions of eastern NC. The Slight Risk for this region has been maintained with only small adjustments based on recent observations and 12Z guidance. ...Great Basin into the Four Corners... A deep, closed upper low centered over CA this morning will advance slowly eastward across parts of the Great Basin through the period. An attendant south-southwesterly mid-level jet will overspread eastern portions of the Great Basin into the Four Corners region this afternoon and evening. Although cloud cover remains prevalent across parts of these areas, some daytime heating will encourage the development of weak instability by mid to late afternoon. Stronger mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are forecast across the Four Corners vicinity, where marginal supercell structures could pose an isolated hail threat. Even though instability should generally remain weak owing to limited low-level moisture, occasional strong to severe wind gusts should be the main threat with various small clusters that can form/consolidate and subsequently spread north-northeastward through the early evening. This wind threat will be locally maximized where filtered diurnal heating can help steepen low-level lapse rates. ...Central High Plains... Relatively high-based thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across parts of the central High Plains, generally along/east of a weak surface trough. This region will be mostly displaced to the east of large-scale ascent associated with the upper low over the West. Even so, a narrow zone of weak to moderate instability should be in place across parts of central NE into western KS by peak afternoon heating. Although flow through low/mid levels should remain modest for much of the afternoon, a veering wind profile with height should foster around 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear, sufficient for some updraft organization. The primary uncertainty regarding any isolated severe hail/wind threat remains whether convection will initiate or not. Have therefore not added a Marginal Risk across parts of the central High Plains with this update, but trends will continue to be monitored. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... The threat for a few tornadoes will continue this afternoon and evening over eastern North Carolina and vicinity. Thunderstorms capable of producing severe gusts and large hail should occur today in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated severe wind and hail also appears possible across parts of the Great Basin to Four Corners. ...Four Corners/Arizona... The primary adjustment was to expand the Marginal risk area southward into eastern AZ. Dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s are supporting MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 J/kg with negligible inhibition based on latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates. A deepening and expansive cumulus field across the region (including a few early attempts at convective initiation) corroborate these estimates, suggesting that adequate buoyancy resides across the region for robust convection. Regional VWPs are sampling 30-40 knot winds around 2-3 km AGL with stronger flow analyzed aloft in recent upper-air analyses. Consequently, adequate deep-layer wind shear appears to be in place to support organized convection, including a supercell or two with an attendant severe hail/wind threat, though storm coverage should remain somewhat limited due to modest forcing for ascent (largely driven by orographic lift). For additional information regarding near-term convective trends further north across the Four Corners see MCD #2072. ...North Dakota... The forecast largely remains on track across ND with only some northwestward expansion of the Slight risk/15% hail probability line. Latest high-res solutions continue to suggest that robust convection will most likely develop near the vorticity maximum (noted just to the west/southwest of Minot, ND as of 19 UTC) and propagate northeast along the warm front. This scenario aligns well with recent satellite trends with gradual convective development observed ahead of the vort max and along the front amid continued diurnal destabilization. This alignment of observed trends and recent guidance yields sufficiently high confidence to warrant adjusting the risk probabilities. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track. See the prior discussion (below) or MCDs #2071 and #2073 for the latest details regarding convective trends across coastal North Carolina and portions of the Great Basin, respectively. ..Moore.. 09/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024/ ...North Dakota into Northwest Minnesota... Elevated thunderstorms which have produced sporadic, marginally severe hail earlier this morning across parts of ND into northwest MN have generally remained sub-severe over the past couple of hours as a southerly low-level jet has gradually weakened. In the wake of this activity, a surface low should consolidate over the northern High Plains, with a front and convectively reinforced outflow expected to lift slowly northward across ND this afternoon/evening as an effective warm front. Airmass recovery is expected along/south of this boundary, with steepening mid-level lapse rates, moistening at low-levels, and daytime heating all contributing to moderate instability by later this afternoon. While low/mid-level flow will not be overly strong for most of the day, strengthening low-level southerly flow is expected again this evening as a low-level jet strengthens across the northern/central Plains. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop along/near the front late this afternoon and early evening. Enough deep-layer shear should be present to support a threat of large hail with any supercells initially. With time, some clustering should occur. A potentially greater wind threat may exist through the evening as activity spreads east-northeastward across central/eastern ND into northwest MN. A tornado or two also appears possible with any surface-based convection along/south of the front, especially this evening as 0-1 km shear increases with the strengthening low-level jet. ...Eastern North Carolina and Vicinity... The surface low off the NC/SC Coast (Potential Tropical Cyclone 8) is forecast by NHC to move northwest and inland across parts of SC through this evening. A surface trough/weak baroclinic zone extends northeastward from the low just off the NC Coast/Outer Banks. As the system moves inland, enhanced low-level flow should turn more east-southeasterly. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest that as low 70s surface dewpoints advance inland along the coastal plain of eastern NC, then only modest/filtered daytime heating will be needed to support weak boundary-layer destabilization. Sufficiently enlarged low-level hodographs should support a threat for a few tornadoes with any low-topped supercells that can form offshore and be sustained inland across coastal portions of eastern NC. The Slight Risk for this region has been maintained with only small adjustments based on recent observations and 12Z guidance. ...Great Basin into the Four Corners... A deep, closed upper low centered over CA this morning will advance slowly eastward across parts of the Great Basin through the period. An attendant south-southwesterly mid-level jet will overspread eastern portions of the Great Basin into the Four Corners region this afternoon and evening. Although cloud cover remains prevalent across parts of these areas, some daytime heating will encourage the development of weak instability by mid to late afternoon. Stronger mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are forecast across the Four Corners vicinity, where marginal supercell structures could pose an isolated hail threat. Even though instability should generally remain weak owing to limited low-level moisture, occasional strong to severe wind gusts should be the main threat with various small clusters that can form/consolidate and subsequently spread north-northeastward through the early evening. This wind threat will be locally maximized where filtered diurnal heating can help steepen low-level lapse rates. ...Central High Plains... Relatively high-based thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across parts of the central High Plains, generally along/east of a weak surface trough. This region will be mostly displaced to the east of large-scale ascent associated with the upper low over the West. Even so, a narrow zone of weak to moderate instability should be in place across parts of central NE into western KS by peak afternoon heating. Although flow through low/mid levels should remain modest for much of the afternoon, a veering wind profile with height should foster around 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear, sufficient for some updraft organization. The primary uncertainty regarding any isolated severe hail/wind threat remains whether convection will initiate or not. Have therefore not added a Marginal Risk across parts of the central High Plains with this update, but trends will continue to be monitored. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF COASTAL NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... The threat for a few tornadoes will continue this afternoon and evening over eastern North Carolina and vicinity. Thunderstorms capable of producing severe gusts and large hail should occur today in parts of the northern Plains. Isolated severe wind and hail also appears possible across parts of the Great Basin to Four Corners. ...Four Corners/Arizona... The primary adjustment was to expand the Marginal risk area southward into eastern AZ. Dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s are supporting MLCAPE values upwards of 1000 J/kg with negligible inhibition based on latest RAP mesoanalysis estimates. A deepening and expansive cumulus field across the region (including a few early attempts at convective initiation) corroborate these estimates, suggesting that adequate buoyancy resides across the region for robust convection. Regional VWPs are sampling 30-40 knot winds around 2-3 km AGL with stronger flow analyzed aloft in recent upper-air analyses. Consequently, adequate deep-layer wind shear appears to be in place to support organized convection, including a supercell or two with an attendant severe hail/wind threat, though storm coverage should remain somewhat limited due to modest forcing for ascent (largely driven by orographic lift). For additional information regarding near-term convective trends further north across the Four Corners see MCD #2072. ...North Dakota... The forecast largely remains on track across ND with only some northwestward expansion of the Slight risk/15% hail probability line. Latest high-res solutions continue to suggest that robust convection will most likely develop near the vorticity maximum (noted just to the west/southwest of Minot, ND as of 19 UTC) and propagate northeast along the warm front. This scenario aligns well with recent satellite trends with gradual convective development observed ahead of the vort max and along the front amid continued diurnal destabilization. This alignment of observed trends and recent guidance yields sufficiently high confidence to warrant adjusting the risk probabilities. Elsewhere, the previous forecast remains on track. See the prior discussion (below) or MCDs #2071 and #2073 for the latest details regarding convective trends across coastal North Carolina and portions of the Great Basin, respectively. ..Moore.. 09/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024/ ...North Dakota into Northwest Minnesota... Elevated thunderstorms which have produced sporadic, marginally severe hail earlier this morning across parts of ND into northwest MN have generally remained sub-severe over the past couple of hours as a southerly low-level jet has gradually weakened. In the wake of this activity, a surface low should consolidate over the northern High Plains, with a front and convectively reinforced outflow expected to lift slowly northward across ND this afternoon/evening as an effective warm front. Airmass recovery is expected along/south of this boundary, with steepening mid-level lapse rates, moistening at low-levels, and daytime heating all contributing to moderate instability by later this afternoon. While low/mid-level flow will not be overly strong for most of the day, strengthening low-level southerly flow is expected again this evening as a low-level jet strengthens across the northern/central Plains. Current expectations are for robust thunderstorms to develop along/near the front late this afternoon and early evening. Enough deep-layer shear should be present to support a threat of large hail with any supercells initially. With time, some clustering should occur. A potentially greater wind threat may exist through the evening as activity spreads east-northeastward across central/eastern ND into northwest MN. A tornado or two also appears possible with any surface-based convection along/south of the front, especially this evening as 0-1 km shear increases with the strengthening low-level jet. ...Eastern North Carolina and Vicinity... The surface low off the NC/SC Coast (Potential Tropical Cyclone 8) is forecast by NHC to move northwest and inland across parts of SC through this evening. A surface trough/weak baroclinic zone extends northeastward from the low just off the NC Coast/Outer Banks. As the system moves inland, enhanced low-level flow should turn more east-southeasterly. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggest that as low 70s surface dewpoints advance inland along the coastal plain of eastern NC, then only modest/filtered daytime heating will be needed to support weak boundary-layer destabilization. Sufficiently enlarged low-level hodographs should support a threat for a few tornadoes with any low-topped supercells that can form offshore and be sustained inland across coastal portions of eastern NC. The Slight Risk for this region has been maintained with only small adjustments based on recent observations and 12Z guidance. ...Great Basin into the Four Corners... A deep, closed upper low centered over CA this morning will advance slowly eastward across parts of the Great Basin through the period. An attendant south-southwesterly mid-level jet will overspread eastern portions of the Great Basin into the Four Corners region this afternoon and evening. Although cloud cover remains prevalent across parts of these areas, some daytime heating will encourage the development of weak instability by mid to late afternoon. Stronger mid-level flow and related deep-layer shear are forecast across the Four Corners vicinity, where marginal supercell structures could pose an isolated hail threat. Even though instability should generally remain weak owing to limited low-level moisture, occasional strong to severe wind gusts should be the main threat with various small clusters that can form/consolidate and subsequently spread north-northeastward through the early evening. This wind threat will be locally maximized where filtered diurnal heating can help steepen low-level lapse rates. ...Central High Plains... Relatively high-based thunderstorms may develop this afternoon across parts of the central High Plains, generally along/east of a weak surface trough. This region will be mostly displaced to the east of large-scale ascent associated with the upper low over the West. Even so, a narrow zone of weak to moderate instability should be in place across parts of central NE into western KS by peak afternoon heating. Although flow through low/mid levels should remain modest for much of the afternoon, a veering wind profile with height should foster around 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear, sufficient for some updraft organization. The primary uncertainty regarding any isolated severe hail/wind threat remains whether convection will initiate or not. Have therefore not added a Marginal Risk across parts of the central High Plains with this update, but trends will continue to be monitored. Read more

MD 2071 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR COASTAL SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 2071 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1211 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Areas affected...coastal southern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 161711Z - 162015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...While the risk for a brief tornado may not be negligible across the southern North Carolina coastal plain, this potential still appears low. It is possible that it may not increase appreciably either, but trends are being closely monitored. DISCUSSION...The surface cyclone center appears to be slowly approaching coastal areas to the west/west-northwest of Myrtle Beach SC. Forcing for ascent aided by strongest low-level convergence and warm advection has been focused to its north, spreading inland near/south through southwest of Wilmington. This has been contributing to the most vigorous thunderstorm development, supported by inflow of tropically moist boundary-layer air within a narrow offshore plume wrapping around the periphery of the cyclone. Low-level hodographs across coastal southern North Carolina remain sizable and clockwise curved, supporting at least a couple of occasionally intensifying supercell structures over the past hour or two. However, inland of immediate coastal areas, the convection and embedded mesocyclones probably have been based above at least a residual shallow stable surface-based layer, based on surface observations and Rapid Refresh forecast soundings. Beneath a subsident mid-level dry slot wrapping around the southern periphery of the cyclone, model output suggests that low-level warming within a small inland advecting wedge may contribute to modest boundary-layer destabilization through mid to late afternoon, as the cyclone slowly begins to migrate inland. However, with strongest flow around 850 mb forecast to shift into the Carolina Piedmont, model forecast soundings generally indicate that this may coincide with shrinking and less clockwise curved low-level hodographs. Coupled with potentially increasing mid-level inhibition, the risk for convection capable of producing tornadoes remains uncertain. ..Kerr/Gleason.. 09/16/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MHX...ILM... LAT...LON 33957840 34277866 34587686 34207681 33397770 33657804 33957840 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Great Plains... Forecast guidance at 12z remains similar to previous cycles at Day 3/Wed. The cyclone over eastern MT will become stacked through the period and only progress modestly northeast toward ND and southern SK/MB by 12z Thursday. Enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of this feature will overspread the northern/central Plains, while southerly low-level flow allows 60s F dewpoints to remain in place from the southern Plains to the MO and Red River (north) Valleys. Convection may be ongoing across parts of the mid-MO Valley vicinity Wednesday morning, with areas of cloud debris expected across the broader Plains. This will result in some uncertainty in airmass recovery/destabilization during the afternoon. While outflow boundaries and pockets of stronger heating may focus mesoscale areas of thunderstorm potential during peak heating through early evening from the eastern Dakotas/MN south/southwest into the TX Panhandle, severe potential is uncertain. Large-scale ascent will remain nebulous across much of the Plains, and midlevel lapse rates will be modest due to relatively warm temperatures aloft. Vertical shear could support some organized/severe risk from eastern SD/NE into KS, but uncertainty and the conditional nature of potential risk precludes low severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Great Plains... Forecast guidance at 12z remains similar to previous cycles at Day 3/Wed. The cyclone over eastern MT will become stacked through the period and only progress modestly northeast toward ND and southern SK/MB by 12z Thursday. Enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of this feature will overspread the northern/central Plains, while southerly low-level flow allows 60s F dewpoints to remain in place from the southern Plains to the MO and Red River (north) Valleys. Convection may be ongoing across parts of the mid-MO Valley vicinity Wednesday morning, with areas of cloud debris expected across the broader Plains. This will result in some uncertainty in airmass recovery/destabilization during the afternoon. While outflow boundaries and pockets of stronger heating may focus mesoscale areas of thunderstorm potential during peak heating through early evening from the eastern Dakotas/MN south/southwest into the TX Panhandle, severe potential is uncertain. Large-scale ascent will remain nebulous across much of the Plains, and midlevel lapse rates will be modest due to relatively warm temperatures aloft. Vertical shear could support some organized/severe risk from eastern SD/NE into KS, but uncertainty and the conditional nature of potential risk precludes low severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Great Plains... Forecast guidance at 12z remains similar to previous cycles at Day 3/Wed. The cyclone over eastern MT will become stacked through the period and only progress modestly northeast toward ND and southern SK/MB by 12z Thursday. Enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of this feature will overspread the northern/central Plains, while southerly low-level flow allows 60s F dewpoints to remain in place from the southern Plains to the MO and Red River (north) Valleys. Convection may be ongoing across parts of the mid-MO Valley vicinity Wednesday morning, with areas of cloud debris expected across the broader Plains. This will result in some uncertainty in airmass recovery/destabilization during the afternoon. While outflow boundaries and pockets of stronger heating may focus mesoscale areas of thunderstorm potential during peak heating through early evening from the eastern Dakotas/MN south/southwest into the TX Panhandle, severe potential is uncertain. Large-scale ascent will remain nebulous across much of the Plains, and midlevel lapse rates will be modest due to relatively warm temperatures aloft. Vertical shear could support some organized/severe risk from eastern SD/NE into KS, but uncertainty and the conditional nature of potential risk precludes low severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Great Plains... Forecast guidance at 12z remains similar to previous cycles at Day 3/Wed. The cyclone over eastern MT will become stacked through the period and only progress modestly northeast toward ND and southern SK/MB by 12z Thursday. Enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of this feature will overspread the northern/central Plains, while southerly low-level flow allows 60s F dewpoints to remain in place from the southern Plains to the MO and Red River (north) Valleys. Convection may be ongoing across parts of the mid-MO Valley vicinity Wednesday morning, with areas of cloud debris expected across the broader Plains. This will result in some uncertainty in airmass recovery/destabilization during the afternoon. While outflow boundaries and pockets of stronger heating may focus mesoscale areas of thunderstorm potential during peak heating through early evening from the eastern Dakotas/MN south/southwest into the TX Panhandle, severe potential is uncertain. Large-scale ascent will remain nebulous across much of the Plains, and midlevel lapse rates will be modest due to relatively warm temperatures aloft. Vertical shear could support some organized/severe risk from eastern SD/NE into KS, but uncertainty and the conditional nature of potential risk precludes low severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Great Plains... Forecast guidance at 12z remains similar to previous cycles at Day 3/Wed. The cyclone over eastern MT will become stacked through the period and only progress modestly northeast toward ND and southern SK/MB by 12z Thursday. Enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of this feature will overspread the northern/central Plains, while southerly low-level flow allows 60s F dewpoints to remain in place from the southern Plains to the MO and Red River (north) Valleys. Convection may be ongoing across parts of the mid-MO Valley vicinity Wednesday morning, with areas of cloud debris expected across the broader Plains. This will result in some uncertainty in airmass recovery/destabilization during the afternoon. While outflow boundaries and pockets of stronger heating may focus mesoscale areas of thunderstorm potential during peak heating through early evening from the eastern Dakotas/MN south/southwest into the TX Panhandle, severe potential is uncertain. Large-scale ascent will remain nebulous across much of the Plains, and midlevel lapse rates will be modest due to relatively warm temperatures aloft. Vertical shear could support some organized/severe risk from eastern SD/NE into KS, but uncertainty and the conditional nature of potential risk precludes low severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Great Plains... Forecast guidance at 12z remains similar to previous cycles at Day 3/Wed. The cyclone over eastern MT will become stacked through the period and only progress modestly northeast toward ND and southern SK/MB by 12z Thursday. Enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of this feature will overspread the northern/central Plains, while southerly low-level flow allows 60s F dewpoints to remain in place from the southern Plains to the MO and Red River (north) Valleys. Convection may be ongoing across parts of the mid-MO Valley vicinity Wednesday morning, with areas of cloud debris expected across the broader Plains. This will result in some uncertainty in airmass recovery/destabilization during the afternoon. While outflow boundaries and pockets of stronger heating may focus mesoscale areas of thunderstorm potential during peak heating through early evening from the eastern Dakotas/MN south/southwest into the TX Panhandle, severe potential is uncertain. Large-scale ascent will remain nebulous across much of the Plains, and midlevel lapse rates will be modest due to relatively warm temperatures aloft. Vertical shear could support some organized/severe risk from eastern SD/NE into KS, but uncertainty and the conditional nature of potential risk precludes low severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Great Plains... Forecast guidance at 12z remains similar to previous cycles at Day 3/Wed. The cyclone over eastern MT will become stacked through the period and only progress modestly northeast toward ND and southern SK/MB by 12z Thursday. Enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of this feature will overspread the northern/central Plains, while southerly low-level flow allows 60s F dewpoints to remain in place from the southern Plains to the MO and Red River (north) Valleys. Convection may be ongoing across parts of the mid-MO Valley vicinity Wednesday morning, with areas of cloud debris expected across the broader Plains. This will result in some uncertainty in airmass recovery/destabilization during the afternoon. While outflow boundaries and pockets of stronger heating may focus mesoscale areas of thunderstorm potential during peak heating through early evening from the eastern Dakotas/MN south/southwest into the TX Panhandle, severe potential is uncertain. Large-scale ascent will remain nebulous across much of the Plains, and midlevel lapse rates will be modest due to relatively warm temperatures aloft. Vertical shear could support some organized/severe risk from eastern SD/NE into KS, but uncertainty and the conditional nature of potential risk precludes low severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Great Plains... Forecast guidance at 12z remains similar to previous cycles at Day 3/Wed. The cyclone over eastern MT will become stacked through the period and only progress modestly northeast toward ND and southern SK/MB by 12z Thursday. Enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of this feature will overspread the northern/central Plains, while southerly low-level flow allows 60s F dewpoints to remain in place from the southern Plains to the MO and Red River (north) Valleys. Convection may be ongoing across parts of the mid-MO Valley vicinity Wednesday morning, with areas of cloud debris expected across the broader Plains. This will result in some uncertainty in airmass recovery/destabilization during the afternoon. While outflow boundaries and pockets of stronger heating may focus mesoscale areas of thunderstorm potential during peak heating through early evening from the eastern Dakotas/MN south/southwest into the TX Panhandle, severe potential is uncertain. Large-scale ascent will remain nebulous across much of the Plains, and midlevel lapse rates will be modest due to relatively warm temperatures aloft. Vertical shear could support some organized/severe risk from eastern SD/NE into KS, but uncertainty and the conditional nature of potential risk precludes low severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/16/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0215 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected on Wednesday. ...Great Plains... Forecast guidance at 12z remains similar to previous cycles at Day 3/Wed. The cyclone over eastern MT will become stacked through the period and only progress modestly northeast toward ND and southern SK/MB by 12z Thursday. Enhanced southwesterly mid/upper flow ahead of this feature will overspread the northern/central Plains, while southerly low-level flow allows 60s F dewpoints to remain in place from the southern Plains to the MO and Red River (north) Valleys. Convection may be ongoing across parts of the mid-MO Valley vicinity Wednesday morning, with areas of cloud debris expected across the broader Plains. This will result in some uncertainty in airmass recovery/destabilization during the afternoon. While outflow boundaries and pockets of stronger heating may focus mesoscale areas of thunderstorm potential during peak heating through early evening from the eastern Dakotas/MN south/southwest into the TX Panhandle, severe potential is uncertain. Large-scale ascent will remain nebulous across much of the Plains, and midlevel lapse rates will be modest due to relatively warm temperatures aloft. Vertical shear could support some organized/severe risk from eastern SD/NE into KS, but uncertainty and the conditional nature of potential risk precludes low severe probabilities at this time. ..Leitman.. 09/16/2024 Read more

The six mainstem power plants along the Upper Missouri River generated 912 million kilowatt hours of electricity in August, compared to typical energy generation in August of 1,007 million kWh. The power plants were projected to generate 8.1 billion kWh of electricity in 2024, compared to the long-term average of 9.4 billion kWh. Billings Gazette (Mont.), Sept 11, 2024

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...19z Update... Minimal changes were made to the prior forecast. The latest model guidance has shown increasing humidity and rain chances across much of the High Plains. However, at least a few hours of strong southerly winds (20-25 mph) will likely interact with reasonably dry fuels and RH below 30%. While confidence is not overly high, a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible before rain and the cold front approach. Dry and breezy conditions are also possible across parts of southwest CO and eastern UT, but fuels here are not receptive. See prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow preceding an amplified large-scale trough over the West will impinge on the central High Plains during the day. Here, a tightening pressure gradient along a pronounced lee trough, and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with higher gusts). These winds should overlap 20-25 percent RH for a few hours, before a cold front and related precipitation overspread the area from the west during the evening. Given receptive fuels across the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon (prior to the arrival of precipitation). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...19z Update... Minimal changes were made to the prior forecast. The latest model guidance has shown increasing humidity and rain chances across much of the High Plains. However, at least a few hours of strong southerly winds (20-25 mph) will likely interact with reasonably dry fuels and RH below 30%. While confidence is not overly high, a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible before rain and the cold front approach. Dry and breezy conditions are also possible across parts of southwest CO and eastern UT, but fuels here are not receptive. See prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow preceding an amplified large-scale trough over the West will impinge on the central High Plains during the day. Here, a tightening pressure gradient along a pronounced lee trough, and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with higher gusts). These winds should overlap 20-25 percent RH for a few hours, before a cold front and related precipitation overspread the area from the west during the evening. Given receptive fuels across the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon (prior to the arrival of precipitation). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 PM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...19z Update... Minimal changes were made to the prior forecast. The latest model guidance has shown increasing humidity and rain chances across much of the High Plains. However, at least a few hours of strong southerly winds (20-25 mph) will likely interact with reasonably dry fuels and RH below 30%. While confidence is not overly high, a few hours of elevated fire-weather conditions are possible before rain and the cold front approach. Dry and breezy conditions are also possible across parts of southwest CO and eastern UT, but fuels here are not receptive. See prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 09/16/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0156 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... Strong deep-layer south-southwesterly flow preceding an amplified large-scale trough over the West will impinge on the central High Plains during the day. Here, a tightening pressure gradient along a pronounced lee trough, and boundary-layer mixing into the strong flow aloft, will favor 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds (with higher gusts). These winds should overlap 20-25 percent RH for a few hours, before a cold front and related precipitation overspread the area from the west during the evening. Given receptive fuels across the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon (prior to the arrival of precipitation). ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more