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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain over eastern North America on Saturday, with a ridge near the West Coast. An embedded wave will move across New England, while a secondary wave drops southeast across the Midwest. Cold air aloft will remain over the Great Lakes region, an rogue lightning flash cannot be ruled out over the warmer waters early. Otherwise, high pressure will maintain stable conditions across most of the CONUS, with offshore flow across the Gulf Of Mexico and East Coast. ..Jewell.. 11/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain over eastern North America on Saturday, with a ridge near the West Coast. An embedded wave will move across New England, while a secondary wave drops southeast across the Midwest. Cold air aloft will remain over the Great Lakes region, an rogue lightning flash cannot be ruled out over the warmer waters early. Otherwise, high pressure will maintain stable conditions across most of the CONUS, with offshore flow across the Gulf Of Mexico and East Coast. ..Jewell.. 11/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain over eastern North America on Saturday, with a ridge near the West Coast. An embedded wave will move across New England, while a secondary wave drops southeast across the Midwest. Cold air aloft will remain over the Great Lakes region, an rogue lightning flash cannot be ruled out over the warmer waters early. Otherwise, high pressure will maintain stable conditions across most of the CONUS, with offshore flow across the Gulf Of Mexico and East Coast. ..Jewell.. 11/28/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... Weak offshore flow will continue across parts of Southern CA. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions remain possible into this weekend as RH continues to dip and fuels dry. Given the sporadic nature of the offshore winds the fire-weather risk appears localized and no areas will be added. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 11/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will continue to support cooler temperatures across most of the CONUS as broad upper-level troughing persists through tomorrow (Friday). Quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over most areas. The surface pressure gradient over southern California may relax somewhat through the day. As such, any offshore-driven fire weather conditions should remain constrained to very localized, terrain-favoring areas for brief periods of time. The brief and localized nature of these conditions precludes fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... Weak offshore flow will continue across parts of Southern CA. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions remain possible into this weekend as RH continues to dip and fuels dry. Given the sporadic nature of the offshore winds the fire-weather risk appears localized and no areas will be added. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 11/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will continue to support cooler temperatures across most of the CONUS as broad upper-level troughing persists through tomorrow (Friday). Quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over most areas. The surface pressure gradient over southern California may relax somewhat through the day. As such, any offshore-driven fire weather conditions should remain constrained to very localized, terrain-favoring areas for brief periods of time. The brief and localized nature of these conditions precludes fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... Weak offshore flow will continue across parts of Southern CA. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions remain possible into this weekend as RH continues to dip and fuels dry. Given the sporadic nature of the offshore winds the fire-weather risk appears localized and no areas will be added. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 11/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will continue to support cooler temperatures across most of the CONUS as broad upper-level troughing persists through tomorrow (Friday). Quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over most areas. The surface pressure gradient over southern California may relax somewhat through the day. As such, any offshore-driven fire weather conditions should remain constrained to very localized, terrain-favoring areas for brief periods of time. The brief and localized nature of these conditions precludes fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... Weak offshore flow will continue across parts of Southern CA. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions remain possible into this weekend as RH continues to dip and fuels dry. Given the sporadic nature of the offshore winds the fire-weather risk appears localized and no areas will be added. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 11/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will continue to support cooler temperatures across most of the CONUS as broad upper-level troughing persists through tomorrow (Friday). Quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over most areas. The surface pressure gradient over southern California may relax somewhat through the day. As such, any offshore-driven fire weather conditions should remain constrained to very localized, terrain-favoring areas for brief periods of time. The brief and localized nature of these conditions precludes fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... Weak offshore flow will continue across parts of Southern CA. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions remain possible into this weekend as RH continues to dip and fuels dry. Given the sporadic nature of the offshore winds the fire-weather risk appears localized and no areas will be added. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 11/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will continue to support cooler temperatures across most of the CONUS as broad upper-level troughing persists through tomorrow (Friday). Quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over most areas. The surface pressure gradient over southern California may relax somewhat through the day. As such, any offshore-driven fire weather conditions should remain constrained to very localized, terrain-favoring areas for brief periods of time. The brief and localized nature of these conditions precludes fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... Weak offshore flow will continue across parts of Southern CA. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions remain possible into this weekend as RH continues to dip and fuels dry. Given the sporadic nature of the offshore winds the fire-weather risk appears localized and no areas will be added. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 11/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will continue to support cooler temperatures across most of the CONUS as broad upper-level troughing persists through tomorrow (Friday). Quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over most areas. The surface pressure gradient over southern California may relax somewhat through the day. As such, any offshore-driven fire weather conditions should remain constrained to very localized, terrain-favoring areas for brief periods of time. The brief and localized nature of these conditions precludes fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0109 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...19z Update... Weak offshore flow will continue across parts of Southern CA. Locally elevated fire-weather conditions remain possible into this weekend as RH continues to dip and fuels dry. Given the sporadic nature of the offshore winds the fire-weather risk appears localized and no areas will be added. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 11/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0137 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... Surface high pressure will continue to support cooler temperatures across most of the CONUS as broad upper-level troughing persists through tomorrow (Friday). Quiescent fire weather conditions are expected over most areas. The surface pressure gradient over southern California may relax somewhat through the day. As such, any offshore-driven fire weather conditions should remain constrained to very localized, terrain-favoring areas for brief periods of time. The brief and localized nature of these conditions precludes fire weather highlights this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2243 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK...SOUTHERN VERMONT...NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINE
Mesoscale Discussion 2243 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0947 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Areas affected...parts of east central New York...southern Vermont...New Hampshire and southwestern Maine Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 281547Z - 281845Z SUMMARY...Heavy snow rates on the order of 1-2 inches per hour appear probable in a corridor from the vicinity of the Capital District of New York through the southern Green into White Mountains of Vermont and New Hampshire, into areas north of Portland ME through 1-3 PM EST. DISCUSSION...Rapid (2-4 mb 2-hourly) surface pressure falls are ongoing across the northern Mid Atlantic coast vicinity through southern New England, where substantive surface cyclogenesis is forecast to proceed beneath strengthening divergent flow between coupling upper jet streaks. Downstream of a mid-level short wave trough pivoting into the northern Mid Atlantic region, models indicate strengthening upward vertical motion becoming maximized within a saturating layer near/just above 600 mb, where temperatures around -15C are conducive to large dendritic ice crystal growth. Thermodynamic profiles across the lower Hudson/Champlain Valley vicinity into New England are still largely sub-freezing, aside from a slowly deepening near-surface layer slowly advecting across the lower Hudson Valley into southern New England. It appears that the near-surface environment will remain cold enough in a corridor (roughly) near/northeast of the Capital District of New York through the Portland ME to support heavy accumulating snow, which various model output indicates probably will include rates on the order of 1-2 inches per hour. ..Kerr.. 11/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BTV...ALY... LAT...LON 42997395 43617318 44677165 45307005 44796886 44067030 43067223 42667321 42997395 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain over eastern North America on Friday with an upper low over northeastern Ontario. Cool temperatures aloft will extend far south across the northern Gulf of Mexico and FL as well, where a band of steeper midlevel lapse rates will exist. At the surface, high pressure will encompass most of the CONUS, resulting in a stable surface air mass. The lone area with any thunderstorm/lightning potential will be over parts of FL, where a band of midlevel moisture will remain above the more stable surface layer. The steep midlevel lapse rates and a band of moisture around 700 mb may foster elevated convection/weak thunderstorms over central and northern FL. Given such weak instability, severe hail appears unlikely. ..Jewell.. 11/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain over eastern North America on Friday with an upper low over northeastern Ontario. Cool temperatures aloft will extend far south across the northern Gulf of Mexico and FL as well, where a band of steeper midlevel lapse rates will exist. At the surface, high pressure will encompass most of the CONUS, resulting in a stable surface air mass. The lone area with any thunderstorm/lightning potential will be over parts of FL, where a band of midlevel moisture will remain above the more stable surface layer. The steep midlevel lapse rates and a band of moisture around 700 mb may foster elevated convection/weak thunderstorms over central and northern FL. Given such weak instability, severe hail appears unlikely. ..Jewell.. 11/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain over eastern North America on Friday with an upper low over northeastern Ontario. Cool temperatures aloft will extend far south across the northern Gulf of Mexico and FL as well, where a band of steeper midlevel lapse rates will exist. At the surface, high pressure will encompass most of the CONUS, resulting in a stable surface air mass. The lone area with any thunderstorm/lightning potential will be over parts of FL, where a band of midlevel moisture will remain above the more stable surface layer. The steep midlevel lapse rates and a band of moisture around 700 mb may foster elevated convection/weak thunderstorms over central and northern FL. Given such weak instability, severe hail appears unlikely. ..Jewell.. 11/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain over eastern North America on Friday with an upper low over northeastern Ontario. Cool temperatures aloft will extend far south across the northern Gulf of Mexico and FL as well, where a band of steeper midlevel lapse rates will exist. At the surface, high pressure will encompass most of the CONUS, resulting in a stable surface air mass. The lone area with any thunderstorm/lightning potential will be over parts of FL, where a band of midlevel moisture will remain above the more stable surface layer. The steep midlevel lapse rates and a band of moisture around 700 mb may foster elevated convection/weak thunderstorms over central and northern FL. Given such weak instability, severe hail appears unlikely. ..Jewell.. 11/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain over eastern North America on Friday with an upper low over northeastern Ontario. Cool temperatures aloft will extend far south across the northern Gulf of Mexico and FL as well, where a band of steeper midlevel lapse rates will exist. At the surface, high pressure will encompass most of the CONUS, resulting in a stable surface air mass. The lone area with any thunderstorm/lightning potential will be over parts of FL, where a band of midlevel moisture will remain above the more stable surface layer. The steep midlevel lapse rates and a band of moisture around 700 mb may foster elevated convection/weak thunderstorms over central and northern FL. Given such weak instability, severe hail appears unlikely. ..Jewell.. 11/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain over eastern North America on Friday with an upper low over northeastern Ontario. Cool temperatures aloft will extend far south across the northern Gulf of Mexico and FL as well, where a band of steeper midlevel lapse rates will exist. At the surface, high pressure will encompass most of the CONUS, resulting in a stable surface air mass. The lone area with any thunderstorm/lightning potential will be over parts of FL, where a band of midlevel moisture will remain above the more stable surface layer. The steep midlevel lapse rates and a band of moisture around 700 mb may foster elevated convection/weak thunderstorms over central and northern FL. Given such weak instability, severe hail appears unlikely. ..Jewell.. 11/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain over eastern North America on Friday with an upper low over northeastern Ontario. Cool temperatures aloft will extend far south across the northern Gulf of Mexico and FL as well, where a band of steeper midlevel lapse rates will exist. At the surface, high pressure will encompass most of the CONUS, resulting in a stable surface air mass. The lone area with any thunderstorm/lightning potential will be over parts of FL, where a band of midlevel moisture will remain above the more stable surface layer. The steep midlevel lapse rates and a band of moisture around 700 mb may foster elevated convection/weak thunderstorms over central and northern FL. Given such weak instability, severe hail appears unlikely. ..Jewell.. 11/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1056 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain over eastern North America on Friday with an upper low over northeastern Ontario. Cool temperatures aloft will extend far south across the northern Gulf of Mexico and FL as well, where a band of steeper midlevel lapse rates will exist. At the surface, high pressure will encompass most of the CONUS, resulting in a stable surface air mass. The lone area with any thunderstorm/lightning potential will be over parts of FL, where a band of midlevel moisture will remain above the more stable surface layer. The steep midlevel lapse rates and a band of moisture around 700 mb may foster elevated convection/weak thunderstorms over central and northern FL. Given such weak instability, severe hail appears unlikely. ..Jewell.. 11/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST US... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Southeast. ...Southeast States... Fast westerly flow aloft is present across the eastern CONUS, with a progressive shortwave trough crossing the central/northern Appalachians. The associated cold front currently extends from VA into parts of NC/SC/GA/AL to the FL panhandle. Thunderstorms along/ahead of the front have been very sparse with this system due to veered low-level winds, weak convergence, and relatively poor thermodynamic parameters. This trend will likely continue today, with only isolated convective elements achieving sufficient depth for lightning. Nevertheless, wind fields are quite strong across the pre-frontal zone from north FL into NC, and appear conditionally sufficient for a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado if a thunderstorm can sustain. The corridor that appears to have the greatest potential for a strong storm or two runs across southern GA into coastal SC, where daytime heating/destabilization will be maximized. ..Hart/Thornton.. 11/28/2024 Read more