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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0651 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... A strong storm or two will be possible over the next couple of hours over the southeastern Georgia vicinity, after which storms diurnally diminish. ...Discussion... While most of the southeastern U.S. convection has moved off the Atlantic Coast, in conjunction with the offshore advance of the surface cold front, a minor uptick in coverage/intensity has occurred over the past couple of hours across southeastern Georgia, near the remnant front. Around 1000 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE is indicated within a narrow axis along the front, which is thermodynamically supporting the convection. The flow field across this region is essentially unidirectional/west-southwesterly through the lower half of the troposphere, but with flow increasing with height to around 50 kt at mid levels, shear remains sufficient to allow some updraft organization. Hints of a storm split are indicated by radar just southwest of Waycross, GA -- suggesting weak supercell organization remains possible. The more prominent left-split member has maintained rather vigorous appearance over the past 20 minutes or so, and as such, a stronger gust or small hail would appear possible in the short term. Still, overall risk for severe-caliber events is quite low, and will diminish over the next few hours. At this time, will maintain a very small portion of the MRGL risk over southeastern Georgia, but expect any remnant potential to have ended by midnight. ..Goss.. 11/29/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Nov 28 22:31:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Nov 28 22:31:02 UTC 2024.

MD 2244 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR THE EASTERN CAROLINAS INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA
Mesoscale Discussion 2244 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Areas affected...the eastern Carolinas into southern Georgia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 282024Z - 282230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Marginal risk for hail and wind to continue with thunderstorms through the afternoon. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorm activity along cold front extending across the Carolinas into southern Georgia is ongoing this afternoon, with a few cells becoming briefly organized (with echo tops around 30-35 kft). Overall, storms have struggled to remain organized likely with weakening large scale ascent and poor mid-level lapse rates. Ahead of the front, daytime heating has allowed development of SBCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg amid deep layer shear around 50-65 kts. A few of the longer lived cells that can become organized may pose a risk for hail. As cells become clustered and linearly forced along the front, a few damaging wind gusts will be possible. This will continue to be monitored but a watch is unlikely to be needed at this time. ..Thornton/Hart.. 11/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC... TAE... LAT...LON 31388382 32228228 33628058 35157872 36157700 36387590 35887550 35497553 35047582 34727628 34447732 34037794 33627892 33017960 32608010 32278074 31808129 31398194 31148274 31048346 31068374 31388382 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z Fire-weather concerns through the extended forecast period are low. Persistent broad troughing over the Eastern US will support strong northwesterly flow into the center of the Continent. Ridging over the West will become quasi stationary, further bolstering the high pressure and northwesterly flow over the CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will be in place with a post-frontal air mass over the central and eastern US. A second, stronger front will move through the central and eastern US early next week. This will favor a much colder air mass with widespread precipitation. ...Southern CA... As high intensifies over the interior West, weak to moderate offshore flow is possible across parts of southern CA. A strong warming and drying trend will accompany the offshore flow, potentially supporting some localized fire-weather concerns through midweek next week. The lack of stronger offshore winds aloft should keep overall winds below critical criteria, but some model guidance does show an increase in offshore gradients late next week. Given the increased drying, this could support some critical fire-weather concerns. However, confidence is very low. ...FL... Northerly flow is likely to develop across the FL Peninsula through next week. This could support a much drier air mass as the front scours remaining moisture. The most likely time for this is following the second, stronger front, D5 Monday and early next week. RH values could fall to near 30% with winds gusting to 15 mph. However, some potential for precipitation could moderate fuels, and uncertainty with regard to fire-weather concerns is high. ..Lyons.. 11/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z Fire-weather concerns through the extended forecast period are low. Persistent broad troughing over the Eastern US will support strong northwesterly flow into the center of the Continent. Ridging over the West will become quasi stationary, further bolstering the high pressure and northwesterly flow over the CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will be in place with a post-frontal air mass over the central and eastern US. A second, stronger front will move through the central and eastern US early next week. This will favor a much colder air mass with widespread precipitation. ...Southern CA... As high intensifies over the interior West, weak to moderate offshore flow is possible across parts of southern CA. A strong warming and drying trend will accompany the offshore flow, potentially supporting some localized fire-weather concerns through midweek next week. The lack of stronger offshore winds aloft should keep overall winds below critical criteria, but some model guidance does show an increase in offshore gradients late next week. Given the increased drying, this could support some critical fire-weather concerns. However, confidence is very low. ...FL... Northerly flow is likely to develop across the FL Peninsula through next week. This could support a much drier air mass as the front scours remaining moisture. The most likely time for this is following the second, stronger front, D5 Monday and early next week. RH values could fall to near 30% with winds gusting to 15 mph. However, some potential for precipitation could moderate fuels, and uncertainty with regard to fire-weather concerns is high. ..Lyons.. 11/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z Fire-weather concerns through the extended forecast period are low. Persistent broad troughing over the Eastern US will support strong northwesterly flow into the center of the Continent. Ridging over the West will become quasi stationary, further bolstering the high pressure and northwesterly flow over the CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will be in place with a post-frontal air mass over the central and eastern US. A second, stronger front will move through the central and eastern US early next week. This will favor a much colder air mass with widespread precipitation. ...Southern CA... As high intensifies over the interior West, weak to moderate offshore flow is possible across parts of southern CA. A strong warming and drying trend will accompany the offshore flow, potentially supporting some localized fire-weather concerns through midweek next week. The lack of stronger offshore winds aloft should keep overall winds below critical criteria, but some model guidance does show an increase in offshore gradients late next week. Given the increased drying, this could support some critical fire-weather concerns. However, confidence is very low. ...FL... Northerly flow is likely to develop across the FL Peninsula through next week. This could support a much drier air mass as the front scours remaining moisture. The most likely time for this is following the second, stronger front, D5 Monday and early next week. RH values could fall to near 30% with winds gusting to 15 mph. However, some potential for precipitation could moderate fuels, and uncertainty with regard to fire-weather concerns is high. ..Lyons.. 11/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z Fire-weather concerns through the extended forecast period are low. Persistent broad troughing over the Eastern US will support strong northwesterly flow into the center of the Continent. Ridging over the West will become quasi stationary, further bolstering the high pressure and northwesterly flow over the CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will be in place with a post-frontal air mass over the central and eastern US. A second, stronger front will move through the central and eastern US early next week. This will favor a much colder air mass with widespread precipitation. ...Southern CA... As high intensifies over the interior West, weak to moderate offshore flow is possible across parts of southern CA. A strong warming and drying trend will accompany the offshore flow, potentially supporting some localized fire-weather concerns through midweek next week. The lack of stronger offshore winds aloft should keep overall winds below critical criteria, but some model guidance does show an increase in offshore gradients late next week. Given the increased drying, this could support some critical fire-weather concerns. However, confidence is very low. ...FL... Northerly flow is likely to develop across the FL Peninsula through next week. This could support a much drier air mass as the front scours remaining moisture. The most likely time for this is following the second, stronger front, D5 Monday and early next week. RH values could fall to near 30% with winds gusting to 15 mph. However, some potential for precipitation could moderate fuels, and uncertainty with regard to fire-weather concerns is high. ..Lyons.. 11/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 061200Z Fire-weather concerns through the extended forecast period are low. Persistent broad troughing over the Eastern US will support strong northwesterly flow into the center of the Continent. Ridging over the West will become quasi stationary, further bolstering the high pressure and northwesterly flow over the CONUS. At the surface, high pressure will be in place with a post-frontal air mass over the central and eastern US. A second, stronger front will move through the central and eastern US early next week. This will favor a much colder air mass with widespread precipitation. ...Southern CA... As high intensifies over the interior West, weak to moderate offshore flow is possible across parts of southern CA. A strong warming and drying trend will accompany the offshore flow, potentially supporting some localized fire-weather concerns through midweek next week. The lack of stronger offshore winds aloft should keep overall winds below critical criteria, but some model guidance does show an increase in offshore gradients late next week. Given the increased drying, this could support some critical fire-weather concerns. However, confidence is very low. ...FL... Northerly flow is likely to develop across the FL Peninsula through next week. This could support a much drier air mass as the front scours remaining moisture. The most likely time for this is following the second, stronger front, D5 Monday and early next week. RH values could fall to near 30% with winds gusting to 15 mph. However, some potential for precipitation could moderate fuels, and uncertainty with regard to fire-weather concerns is high. ..Lyons.. 11/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Southeast. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track. Although deep convection continues to develop along the cold front pushing across the Southeast, cells have struggled to maintain intensity - likely owing to a combination of modest mid-level lapse rates (poor vertical accelerations) and decreasing broadscale ascent as the primary synoptic wave continues to shift into the Northeast. Despite these limitations, the thermodynamic/kinematic environment from northern FL into the Carolinas remains adequate for organized convection, and latest high-res CAM solutions hint that one or two intense thunderstorms remain possible - especially across southeast GA into southern SC where the overlap of 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE and favorable low to mid-level flow is best. Aside from trimming probabilities behind the cold front, 5% wind probabilities were expanded slightly into northeast NC ahead of a convective line. Regional VWPs have recently sampled 40-50 knot flow within the 1-2 km layer, suggesting that a few strong/severe wind gusts are possible with this activity. ..Moore.. 11/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024/ ...Southeast States... Fast westerly flow aloft is present across the eastern CONUS, with a progressive shortwave trough crossing the central/northern Appalachians. The associated cold front currently extends from VA into parts of NC/SC/GA/AL to the FL panhandle. Thunderstorms along/ahead of the front have been very sparse with this system due to veered low-level winds, weak convergence, and relatively poor thermodynamic parameters. This trend will likely continue today, with only isolated convective elements achieving sufficient depth for lightning. Nevertheless, wind fields are quite strong across the pre-frontal zone from north FL into NC, and appear conditionally sufficient for a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado if a thunderstorm can sustain. The corridor that appears to have the greatest potential for a strong storm or two runs across southern GA into coastal SC, where daytime heating/destabilization will be maximized. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Southeast. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track. Although deep convection continues to develop along the cold front pushing across the Southeast, cells have struggled to maintain intensity - likely owing to a combination of modest mid-level lapse rates (poor vertical accelerations) and decreasing broadscale ascent as the primary synoptic wave continues to shift into the Northeast. Despite these limitations, the thermodynamic/kinematic environment from northern FL into the Carolinas remains adequate for organized convection, and latest high-res CAM solutions hint that one or two intense thunderstorms remain possible - especially across southeast GA into southern SC where the overlap of 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE and favorable low to mid-level flow is best. Aside from trimming probabilities behind the cold front, 5% wind probabilities were expanded slightly into northeast NC ahead of a convective line. Regional VWPs have recently sampled 40-50 knot flow within the 1-2 km layer, suggesting that a few strong/severe wind gusts are possible with this activity. ..Moore.. 11/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024/ ...Southeast States... Fast westerly flow aloft is present across the eastern CONUS, with a progressive shortwave trough crossing the central/northern Appalachians. The associated cold front currently extends from VA into parts of NC/SC/GA/AL to the FL panhandle. Thunderstorms along/ahead of the front have been very sparse with this system due to veered low-level winds, weak convergence, and relatively poor thermodynamic parameters. This trend will likely continue today, with only isolated convective elements achieving sufficient depth for lightning. Nevertheless, wind fields are quite strong across the pre-frontal zone from north FL into NC, and appear conditionally sufficient for a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado if a thunderstorm can sustain. The corridor that appears to have the greatest potential for a strong storm or two runs across southern GA into coastal SC, where daytime heating/destabilization will be maximized. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Southeast. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track. Although deep convection continues to develop along the cold front pushing across the Southeast, cells have struggled to maintain intensity - likely owing to a combination of modest mid-level lapse rates (poor vertical accelerations) and decreasing broadscale ascent as the primary synoptic wave continues to shift into the Northeast. Despite these limitations, the thermodynamic/kinematic environment from northern FL into the Carolinas remains adequate for organized convection, and latest high-res CAM solutions hint that one or two intense thunderstorms remain possible - especially across southeast GA into southern SC where the overlap of 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE and favorable low to mid-level flow is best. Aside from trimming probabilities behind the cold front, 5% wind probabilities were expanded slightly into northeast NC ahead of a convective line. Regional VWPs have recently sampled 40-50 knot flow within the 1-2 km layer, suggesting that a few strong/severe wind gusts are possible with this activity. ..Moore.. 11/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024/ ...Southeast States... Fast westerly flow aloft is present across the eastern CONUS, with a progressive shortwave trough crossing the central/northern Appalachians. The associated cold front currently extends from VA into parts of NC/SC/GA/AL to the FL panhandle. Thunderstorms along/ahead of the front have been very sparse with this system due to veered low-level winds, weak convergence, and relatively poor thermodynamic parameters. This trend will likely continue today, with only isolated convective elements achieving sufficient depth for lightning. Nevertheless, wind fields are quite strong across the pre-frontal zone from north FL into NC, and appear conditionally sufficient for a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado if a thunderstorm can sustain. The corridor that appears to have the greatest potential for a strong storm or two runs across southern GA into coastal SC, where daytime heating/destabilization will be maximized. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Southeast. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track. Although deep convection continues to develop along the cold front pushing across the Southeast, cells have struggled to maintain intensity - likely owing to a combination of modest mid-level lapse rates (poor vertical accelerations) and decreasing broadscale ascent as the primary synoptic wave continues to shift into the Northeast. Despite these limitations, the thermodynamic/kinematic environment from northern FL into the Carolinas remains adequate for organized convection, and latest high-res CAM solutions hint that one or two intense thunderstorms remain possible - especially across southeast GA into southern SC where the overlap of 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE and favorable low to mid-level flow is best. Aside from trimming probabilities behind the cold front, 5% wind probabilities were expanded slightly into northeast NC ahead of a convective line. Regional VWPs have recently sampled 40-50 knot flow within the 1-2 km layer, suggesting that a few strong/severe wind gusts are possible with this activity. ..Moore.. 11/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024/ ...Southeast States... Fast westerly flow aloft is present across the eastern CONUS, with a progressive shortwave trough crossing the central/northern Appalachians. The associated cold front currently extends from VA into parts of NC/SC/GA/AL to the FL panhandle. Thunderstorms along/ahead of the front have been very sparse with this system due to veered low-level winds, weak convergence, and relatively poor thermodynamic parameters. This trend will likely continue today, with only isolated convective elements achieving sufficient depth for lightning. Nevertheless, wind fields are quite strong across the pre-frontal zone from north FL into NC, and appear conditionally sufficient for a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado if a thunderstorm can sustain. The corridor that appears to have the greatest potential for a strong storm or two runs across southern GA into coastal SC, where daytime heating/destabilization will be maximized. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Southeast. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track. Although deep convection continues to develop along the cold front pushing across the Southeast, cells have struggled to maintain intensity - likely owing to a combination of modest mid-level lapse rates (poor vertical accelerations) and decreasing broadscale ascent as the primary synoptic wave continues to shift into the Northeast. Despite these limitations, the thermodynamic/kinematic environment from northern FL into the Carolinas remains adequate for organized convection, and latest high-res CAM solutions hint that one or two intense thunderstorms remain possible - especially across southeast GA into southern SC where the overlap of 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE and favorable low to mid-level flow is best. Aside from trimming probabilities behind the cold front, 5% wind probabilities were expanded slightly into northeast NC ahead of a convective line. Regional VWPs have recently sampled 40-50 knot flow within the 1-2 km layer, suggesting that a few strong/severe wind gusts are possible with this activity. ..Moore.. 11/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024/ ...Southeast States... Fast westerly flow aloft is present across the eastern CONUS, with a progressive shortwave trough crossing the central/northern Appalachians. The associated cold front currently extends from VA into parts of NC/SC/GA/AL to the FL panhandle. Thunderstorms along/ahead of the front have been very sparse with this system due to veered low-level winds, weak convergence, and relatively poor thermodynamic parameters. This trend will likely continue today, with only isolated convective elements achieving sufficient depth for lightning. Nevertheless, wind fields are quite strong across the pre-frontal zone from north FL into NC, and appear conditionally sufficient for a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado if a thunderstorm can sustain. The corridor that appears to have the greatest potential for a strong storm or two runs across southern GA into coastal SC, where daytime heating/destabilization will be maximized. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Southeast. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track. Although deep convection continues to develop along the cold front pushing across the Southeast, cells have struggled to maintain intensity - likely owing to a combination of modest mid-level lapse rates (poor vertical accelerations) and decreasing broadscale ascent as the primary synoptic wave continues to shift into the Northeast. Despite these limitations, the thermodynamic/kinematic environment from northern FL into the Carolinas remains adequate for organized convection, and latest high-res CAM solutions hint that one or two intense thunderstorms remain possible - especially across southeast GA into southern SC where the overlap of 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE and favorable low to mid-level flow is best. Aside from trimming probabilities behind the cold front, 5% wind probabilities were expanded slightly into northeast NC ahead of a convective line. Regional VWPs have recently sampled 40-50 knot flow within the 1-2 km layer, suggesting that a few strong/severe wind gusts are possible with this activity. ..Moore.. 11/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024/ ...Southeast States... Fast westerly flow aloft is present across the eastern CONUS, with a progressive shortwave trough crossing the central/northern Appalachians. The associated cold front currently extends from VA into parts of NC/SC/GA/AL to the FL panhandle. Thunderstorms along/ahead of the front have been very sparse with this system due to veered low-level winds, weak convergence, and relatively poor thermodynamic parameters. This trend will likely continue today, with only isolated convective elements achieving sufficient depth for lightning. Nevertheless, wind fields are quite strong across the pre-frontal zone from north FL into NC, and appear conditionally sufficient for a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado if a thunderstorm can sustain. The corridor that appears to have the greatest potential for a strong storm or two runs across southern GA into coastal SC, where daytime heating/destabilization will be maximized. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Valid 282000Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible today across parts of the Southeast. ...20z Update... The previous forecast largely remains on track. Although deep convection continues to develop along the cold front pushing across the Southeast, cells have struggled to maintain intensity - likely owing to a combination of modest mid-level lapse rates (poor vertical accelerations) and decreasing broadscale ascent as the primary synoptic wave continues to shift into the Northeast. Despite these limitations, the thermodynamic/kinematic environment from northern FL into the Carolinas remains adequate for organized convection, and latest high-res CAM solutions hint that one or two intense thunderstorms remain possible - especially across southeast GA into southern SC where the overlap of 1000-2000 J/kg SBCAPE and favorable low to mid-level flow is best. Aside from trimming probabilities behind the cold front, 5% wind probabilities were expanded slightly into northeast NC ahead of a convective line. Regional VWPs have recently sampled 40-50 knot flow within the 1-2 km layer, suggesting that a few strong/severe wind gusts are possible with this activity. ..Moore.. 11/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Thu Nov 28 2024/ ...Southeast States... Fast westerly flow aloft is present across the eastern CONUS, with a progressive shortwave trough crossing the central/northern Appalachians. The associated cold front currently extends from VA into parts of NC/SC/GA/AL to the FL panhandle. Thunderstorms along/ahead of the front have been very sparse with this system due to veered low-level winds, weak convergence, and relatively poor thermodynamic parameters. This trend will likely continue today, with only isolated convective elements achieving sufficient depth for lightning. Nevertheless, wind fields are quite strong across the pre-frontal zone from north FL into NC, and appear conditionally sufficient for a risk of locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado if a thunderstorm can sustain. The corridor that appears to have the greatest potential for a strong storm or two runs across southern GA into coastal SC, where daytime heating/destabilization will be maximized. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain over eastern North America on Saturday, with a ridge near the West Coast. An embedded wave will move across New England, while a secondary wave drops southeast across the Midwest. Cold air aloft will remain over the Great Lakes region, an rogue lightning flash cannot be ruled out over the warmer waters early. Otherwise, high pressure will maintain stable conditions across most of the CONUS, with offshore flow across the Gulf Of Mexico and East Coast. ..Jewell.. 11/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain over eastern North America on Saturday, with a ridge near the West Coast. An embedded wave will move across New England, while a secondary wave drops southeast across the Midwest. Cold air aloft will remain over the Great Lakes region, an rogue lightning flash cannot be ruled out over the warmer waters early. Otherwise, high pressure will maintain stable conditions across most of the CONUS, with offshore flow across the Gulf Of Mexico and East Coast. ..Jewell.. 11/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain over eastern North America on Saturday, with a ridge near the West Coast. An embedded wave will move across New England, while a secondary wave drops southeast across the Midwest. Cold air aloft will remain over the Great Lakes region, an rogue lightning flash cannot be ruled out over the warmer waters early. Otherwise, high pressure will maintain stable conditions across most of the CONUS, with offshore flow across the Gulf Of Mexico and East Coast. ..Jewell.. 11/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 PM CST Thu Nov 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain over eastern North America on Saturday, with a ridge near the West Coast. An embedded wave will move across New England, while a secondary wave drops southeast across the Midwest. Cold air aloft will remain over the Great Lakes region, an rogue lightning flash cannot be ruled out over the warmer waters early. Otherwise, high pressure will maintain stable conditions across most of the CONUS, with offshore flow across the Gulf Of Mexico and East Coast. ..Jewell.. 11/28/2024 Read more