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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday across parts of the Southeast and Carolinas, with the greatest threat currently expected from late morning into the afternoon. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Thursday, an upper trough will move across the eastern states with a strong midlevel speed max sweeping east across the Appalachians and Mid Atlantic. A surface low is forecast to move quickly across VA/MD/DE and toward southern New England by late afternoon. South of a low, a cold front will extend across the Carolinas, central GA and into far southern AL, MS, and LA by midday, with a plume of 60s F dewpoints ahead of it. MLCAPE around 1000 to 1500 J/kg may develop along southern portions of the front with modest heating possible. Forecast shear and thermodynamic profiles appear most favorable in these same areas, with conditional risk of wind, perhaps localized hail. The primary issue regarding storm coverage and severity, especially over southern areas, appears to be the rapidly veering low-level flow, combined with drying aloft and a departing wave to the north. These factors may reduce overall storm coverage. Farther north closer to the surface low, instability will be weaker, however, low-level shear and hodographs may favor a conditional/brief tornado risk prior to frontal passage. ..Jewell.. 11/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday across parts of the Southeast and Carolinas, with the greatest threat currently expected from late morning into the afternoon. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Thursday, an upper trough will move across the eastern states with a strong midlevel speed max sweeping east across the Appalachians and Mid Atlantic. A surface low is forecast to move quickly across VA/MD/DE and toward southern New England by late afternoon. South of a low, a cold front will extend across the Carolinas, central GA and into far southern AL, MS, and LA by midday, with a plume of 60s F dewpoints ahead of it. MLCAPE around 1000 to 1500 J/kg may develop along southern portions of the front with modest heating possible. Forecast shear and thermodynamic profiles appear most favorable in these same areas, with conditional risk of wind, perhaps localized hail. The primary issue regarding storm coverage and severity, especially over southern areas, appears to be the rapidly veering low-level flow, combined with drying aloft and a departing wave to the north. These factors may reduce overall storm coverage. Farther north closer to the surface low, instability will be weaker, however, low-level shear and hodographs may favor a conditional/brief tornado risk prior to frontal passage. ..Jewell.. 11/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday across parts of the Southeast and Carolinas, with the greatest threat currently expected from late morning into the afternoon. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Thursday, an upper trough will move across the eastern states with a strong midlevel speed max sweeping east across the Appalachians and Mid Atlantic. A surface low is forecast to move quickly across VA/MD/DE and toward southern New England by late afternoon. South of a low, a cold front will extend across the Carolinas, central GA and into far southern AL, MS, and LA by midday, with a plume of 60s F dewpoints ahead of it. MLCAPE around 1000 to 1500 J/kg may develop along southern portions of the front with modest heating possible. Forecast shear and thermodynamic profiles appear most favorable in these same areas, with conditional risk of wind, perhaps localized hail. The primary issue regarding storm coverage and severity, especially over southern areas, appears to be the rapidly veering low-level flow, combined with drying aloft and a departing wave to the north. These factors may reduce overall storm coverage. Farther north closer to the surface low, instability will be weaker, however, low-level shear and hodographs may favor a conditional/brief tornado risk prior to frontal passage. ..Jewell.. 11/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few strong to potentially severe thunderstorms are possible Thursday across parts of the Southeast and Carolinas, with the greatest threat currently expected from late morning into the afternoon. ...Synopsis and Discussion... On Thursday, an upper trough will move across the eastern states with a strong midlevel speed max sweeping east across the Appalachians and Mid Atlantic. A surface low is forecast to move quickly across VA/MD/DE and toward southern New England by late afternoon. South of a low, a cold front will extend across the Carolinas, central GA and into far southern AL, MS, and LA by midday, with a plume of 60s F dewpoints ahead of it. MLCAPE around 1000 to 1500 J/kg may develop along southern portions of the front with modest heating possible. Forecast shear and thermodynamic profiles appear most favorable in these same areas, with conditional risk of wind, perhaps localized hail. The primary issue regarding storm coverage and severity, especially over southern areas, appears to be the rapidly veering low-level flow, combined with drying aloft and a departing wave to the north. These factors may reduce overall storm coverage. Farther north closer to the surface low, instability will be weaker, however, low-level shear and hodographs may favor a conditional/brief tornado risk prior to frontal passage. ..Jewell.. 11/27/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes. A few hours of gusty winds and downslope flow are likely over eastern NM and west TX. This could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions, but fuels are marginal. Additionally, a strong cold front is rapidly advancing southward over the High Plains. Behind the front, cooler conditions and higher RH will limit the threat. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 11/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1202 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will gradually amplify across the central CONUS as a surface low translates from the Southern Plains to the Atlantic Coast today. Behind a surface cold front, cool temperatures amid surface high pressure will sweep across much of the CONUS west of the Appalachians. As a result, cool and/or moist conditions will prevail, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the U.S. Downslope flow may occur across much of western TX during the afternoon, supporting dry and windy conditions. However, fuels are marginally receptive at best for fire spread, so any fire weather concerns should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes. A few hours of gusty winds and downslope flow are likely over eastern NM and west TX. This could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions, but fuels are marginal. Additionally, a strong cold front is rapidly advancing southward over the High Plains. Behind the front, cooler conditions and higher RH will limit the threat. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 11/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1202 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will gradually amplify across the central CONUS as a surface low translates from the Southern Plains to the Atlantic Coast today. Behind a surface cold front, cool temperatures amid surface high pressure will sweep across much of the CONUS west of the Appalachians. As a result, cool and/or moist conditions will prevail, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the U.S. Downslope flow may occur across much of western TX during the afternoon, supporting dry and windy conditions. However, fuels are marginally receptive at best for fire spread, so any fire weather concerns should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes. A few hours of gusty winds and downslope flow are likely over eastern NM and west TX. This could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions, but fuels are marginal. Additionally, a strong cold front is rapidly advancing southward over the High Plains. Behind the front, cooler conditions and higher RH will limit the threat. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 11/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1202 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will gradually amplify across the central CONUS as a surface low translates from the Southern Plains to the Atlantic Coast today. Behind a surface cold front, cool temperatures amid surface high pressure will sweep across much of the CONUS west of the Appalachians. As a result, cool and/or moist conditions will prevail, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the U.S. Downslope flow may occur across much of western TX during the afternoon, supporting dry and windy conditions. However, fuels are marginally receptive at best for fire spread, so any fire weather concerns should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes. A few hours of gusty winds and downslope flow are likely over eastern NM and west TX. This could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions, but fuels are marginal. Additionally, a strong cold front is rapidly advancing southward over the High Plains. Behind the front, cooler conditions and higher RH will limit the threat. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 11/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1202 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will gradually amplify across the central CONUS as a surface low translates from the Southern Plains to the Atlantic Coast today. Behind a surface cold front, cool temperatures amid surface high pressure will sweep across much of the CONUS west of the Appalachians. As a result, cool and/or moist conditions will prevail, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the U.S. Downslope flow may occur across much of western TX during the afternoon, supporting dry and windy conditions. However, fuels are marginally receptive at best for fire spread, so any fire weather concerns should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes. A few hours of gusty winds and downslope flow are likely over eastern NM and west TX. This could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions, but fuels are marginal. Additionally, a strong cold front is rapidly advancing southward over the High Plains. Behind the front, cooler conditions and higher RH will limit the threat. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 11/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1202 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will gradually amplify across the central CONUS as a surface low translates from the Southern Plains to the Atlantic Coast today. Behind a surface cold front, cool temperatures amid surface high pressure will sweep across much of the CONUS west of the Appalachians. As a result, cool and/or moist conditions will prevail, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the U.S. Downslope flow may occur across much of western TX during the afternoon, supporting dry and windy conditions. However, fuels are marginally receptive at best for fire spread, so any fire weather concerns should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes. A few hours of gusty winds and downslope flow are likely over eastern NM and west TX. This could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions, but fuels are marginal. Additionally, a strong cold front is rapidly advancing southward over the High Plains. Behind the front, cooler conditions and higher RH will limit the threat. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 11/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1202 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will gradually amplify across the central CONUS as a surface low translates from the Southern Plains to the Atlantic Coast today. Behind a surface cold front, cool temperatures amid surface high pressure will sweep across much of the CONUS west of the Appalachians. As a result, cool and/or moist conditions will prevail, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the U.S. Downslope flow may occur across much of western TX during the afternoon, supporting dry and windy conditions. However, fuels are marginally receptive at best for fire spread, so any fire weather concerns should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1048 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 Valid 271700Z - 281200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...17z Update... No changes. A few hours of gusty winds and downslope flow are likely over eastern NM and west TX. This could support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather conditions, but fuels are marginal. Additionally, a strong cold front is rapidly advancing southward over the High Plains. Behind the front, cooler conditions and higher RH will limit the threat. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 11/27/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1202 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will gradually amplify across the central CONUS as a surface low translates from the Southern Plains to the Atlantic Coast today. Behind a surface cold front, cool temperatures amid surface high pressure will sweep across much of the CONUS west of the Appalachians. As a result, cool and/or moist conditions will prevail, promoting quiescent fire weather conditions across much of the U.S. Downslope flow may occur across much of western TX during the afternoon, supporting dry and windy conditions. However, fuels are marginally receptive at best for fire spread, so any fire weather concerns should remain localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2242 CONCERNING WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2242 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0935 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 Areas affected...north central Kansas Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation Valid 271535Z - 271730Z SUMMARY...Light accumulations of freezing rain to continue through the morning. DISCUSSION...Recent observations across northern Kansas have shown light accumulations of freezing rain ongoing. Sounding analysis shows a shallow layer of warmer air aloft around 700-850 mb, with colder near surface air. Surface temperatures are hovering around freezing with dew points in the 30s. Within the more moderate band of precipitation, surface temperatures have dropped 2-3 degrees with light freezing rain reported. Overall, accumulations should remain light (a few hundredths) but elevated surfaces may become slick. ..Thornton.. 11/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 39789690 39649640 39479645 39249799 39129892 39089943 39319950 39529933 39739834 39819700 39789690 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible late tonight into early Thanksgiving morning over eastern Mississippi, central and northern Alabama, and the western/central Florida Panhandle. ...Southeast States... A progressive and strong shortwave trough is moving across the central Rockies this morning, and will spread into the Plains tonight. Ahead of this system, low-level cyclogenesis will result in strengthening southwesterly low-level winds across the southeastern states. Gulf moisture will stream northward, with 60s dewpoints expected tonight across most areas from TN southward. A cold front will impinge on the low-level moisture after dark, leading to at least a conditional risk of a few intense thunderstorms. A strong low-level inversion is present across the southeast this morning, and will persist into the evening. However, increasing large scale ascent will slowly erode the cap, improving the potential for a few thunderstorms along the approaching cold front. This is most likely to occur after midnight, and mainly from eastern MS eastward across parts of AL into GA. Low-level wind fields are strong, suggesting some concern for gusty/damaging winds or perhaps a tornado overnight. Farther south, morning model guidance continues to suggest the development of scattered thunderstorms along a pre-frontal convergence zone over southern AL and the FL Panhandle - mainly after 09z. Shear profiles are strong enough in this region for rotating storms, although the area is south of the low-level jet axis and displaced from the more favorable large scale forcing. ..Hart/Thornton.. 11/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible late tonight into early Thanksgiving morning over eastern Mississippi, central and northern Alabama, and the western/central Florida Panhandle. ...Southeast States... A progressive and strong shortwave trough is moving across the central Rockies this morning, and will spread into the Plains tonight. Ahead of this system, low-level cyclogenesis will result in strengthening southwesterly low-level winds across the southeastern states. Gulf moisture will stream northward, with 60s dewpoints expected tonight across most areas from TN southward. A cold front will impinge on the low-level moisture after dark, leading to at least a conditional risk of a few intense thunderstorms. A strong low-level inversion is present across the southeast this morning, and will persist into the evening. However, increasing large scale ascent will slowly erode the cap, improving the potential for a few thunderstorms along the approaching cold front. This is most likely to occur after midnight, and mainly from eastern MS eastward across parts of AL into GA. Low-level wind fields are strong, suggesting some concern for gusty/damaging winds or perhaps a tornado overnight. Farther south, morning model guidance continues to suggest the development of scattered thunderstorms along a pre-frontal convergence zone over southern AL and the FL Panhandle - mainly after 09z. Shear profiles are strong enough in this region for rotating storms, although the area is south of the low-level jet axis and displaced from the more favorable large scale forcing. ..Hart/Thornton.. 11/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible late tonight into early Thanksgiving morning over eastern Mississippi, central and northern Alabama, and the western/central Florida Panhandle. ...Southeast States... A progressive and strong shortwave trough is moving across the central Rockies this morning, and will spread into the Plains tonight. Ahead of this system, low-level cyclogenesis will result in strengthening southwesterly low-level winds across the southeastern states. Gulf moisture will stream northward, with 60s dewpoints expected tonight across most areas from TN southward. A cold front will impinge on the low-level moisture after dark, leading to at least a conditional risk of a few intense thunderstorms. A strong low-level inversion is present across the southeast this morning, and will persist into the evening. However, increasing large scale ascent will slowly erode the cap, improving the potential for a few thunderstorms along the approaching cold front. This is most likely to occur after midnight, and mainly from eastern MS eastward across parts of AL into GA. Low-level wind fields are strong, suggesting some concern for gusty/damaging winds or perhaps a tornado overnight. Farther south, morning model guidance continues to suggest the development of scattered thunderstorms along a pre-frontal convergence zone over southern AL and the FL Panhandle - mainly after 09z. Shear profiles are strong enough in this region for rotating storms, although the area is south of the low-level jet axis and displaced from the more favorable large scale forcing. ..Hart/Thornton.. 11/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible late tonight into early Thanksgiving morning over eastern Mississippi, central and northern Alabama, and the western/central Florida Panhandle. ...Southeast States... A progressive and strong shortwave trough is moving across the central Rockies this morning, and will spread into the Plains tonight. Ahead of this system, low-level cyclogenesis will result in strengthening southwesterly low-level winds across the southeastern states. Gulf moisture will stream northward, with 60s dewpoints expected tonight across most areas from TN southward. A cold front will impinge on the low-level moisture after dark, leading to at least a conditional risk of a few intense thunderstorms. A strong low-level inversion is present across the southeast this morning, and will persist into the evening. However, increasing large scale ascent will slowly erode the cap, improving the potential for a few thunderstorms along the approaching cold front. This is most likely to occur after midnight, and mainly from eastern MS eastward across parts of AL into GA. Low-level wind fields are strong, suggesting some concern for gusty/damaging winds or perhaps a tornado overnight. Farther south, morning model guidance continues to suggest the development of scattered thunderstorms along a pre-frontal convergence zone over southern AL and the FL Panhandle - mainly after 09z. Shear profiles are strong enough in this region for rotating storms, although the area is south of the low-level jet axis and displaced from the more favorable large scale forcing. ..Hart/Thornton.. 11/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible late tonight into early Thanksgiving morning over eastern Mississippi, central and northern Alabama, and the western/central Florida Panhandle. ...Southeast States... A progressive and strong shortwave trough is moving across the central Rockies this morning, and will spread into the Plains tonight. Ahead of this system, low-level cyclogenesis will result in strengthening southwesterly low-level winds across the southeastern states. Gulf moisture will stream northward, with 60s dewpoints expected tonight across most areas from TN southward. A cold front will impinge on the low-level moisture after dark, leading to at least a conditional risk of a few intense thunderstorms. A strong low-level inversion is present across the southeast this morning, and will persist into the evening. However, increasing large scale ascent will slowly erode the cap, improving the potential for a few thunderstorms along the approaching cold front. This is most likely to occur after midnight, and mainly from eastern MS eastward across parts of AL into GA. Low-level wind fields are strong, suggesting some concern for gusty/damaging winds or perhaps a tornado overnight. Farther south, morning model guidance continues to suggest the development of scattered thunderstorms along a pre-frontal convergence zone over southern AL and the FL Panhandle - mainly after 09z. Shear profiles are strong enough in this region for rotating storms, although the area is south of the low-level jet axis and displaced from the more favorable large scale forcing. ..Hart/Thornton.. 11/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible late tonight into early Thanksgiving morning over eastern Mississippi, central and northern Alabama, and the western/central Florida Panhandle. ...Southeast States... A progressive and strong shortwave trough is moving across the central Rockies this morning, and will spread into the Plains tonight. Ahead of this system, low-level cyclogenesis will result in strengthening southwesterly low-level winds across the southeastern states. Gulf moisture will stream northward, with 60s dewpoints expected tonight across most areas from TN southward. A cold front will impinge on the low-level moisture after dark, leading to at least a conditional risk of a few intense thunderstorms. A strong low-level inversion is present across the southeast this morning, and will persist into the evening. However, increasing large scale ascent will slowly erode the cap, improving the potential for a few thunderstorms along the approaching cold front. This is most likely to occur after midnight, and mainly from eastern MS eastward across parts of AL into GA. Low-level wind fields are strong, suggesting some concern for gusty/damaging winds or perhaps a tornado overnight. Farther south, morning model guidance continues to suggest the development of scattered thunderstorms along a pre-frontal convergence zone over southern AL and the FL Panhandle - mainly after 09z. Shear profiles are strong enough in this region for rotating storms, although the area is south of the low-level jet axis and displaced from the more favorable large scale forcing. ..Hart/Thornton.. 11/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 Valid 271630Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...WESTERN GEORGIA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible late tonight into early Thanksgiving morning over eastern Mississippi, central and northern Alabama, and the western/central Florida Panhandle. ...Southeast States... A progressive and strong shortwave trough is moving across the central Rockies this morning, and will spread into the Plains tonight. Ahead of this system, low-level cyclogenesis will result in strengthening southwesterly low-level winds across the southeastern states. Gulf moisture will stream northward, with 60s dewpoints expected tonight across most areas from TN southward. A cold front will impinge on the low-level moisture after dark, leading to at least a conditional risk of a few intense thunderstorms. A strong low-level inversion is present across the southeast this morning, and will persist into the evening. However, increasing large scale ascent will slowly erode the cap, improving the potential for a few thunderstorms along the approaching cold front. This is most likely to occur after midnight, and mainly from eastern MS eastward across parts of AL into GA. Low-level wind fields are strong, suggesting some concern for gusty/damaging winds or perhaps a tornado overnight. Farther south, morning model guidance continues to suggest the development of scattered thunderstorms along a pre-frontal convergence zone over southern AL and the FL Panhandle - mainly after 09z. Shear profiles are strong enough in this region for rotating storms, although the area is south of the low-level jet axis and displaced from the more favorable large scale forcing. ..Hart/Thornton.. 11/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0644 AM CST Wed Nov 27 2024 Valid 271300Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI TO CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA...AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN/CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms are possible late tonight into early Thanksgiving morning, over central Mississippi to central and northern Alabama, and parts of the western/central Florida Panhandle to southwestern Georgia. ...Synopsis... A progressive, nearly zonal middle/upper-level pattern over much of the CONUS will become more cyclonically curved east of the Rockies through the period. Contributing to this will be a positively tilted shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery from central WY across northern parts of UT/NV. This perturbation should move rapidly across the central Rockies today, reaching southern parts of KS and CO by 00Z. The trough then should pivot east- northeastward and elongate, reaching the Ohio Valley and Ozarks by 12Z tomorrow. 11Z surface analysis showed an area of low pressure over the northern TX Panhandle into northeastern NM, along and south of a cold front extending into the Sangre de Cristos between RTN-TAD. By 00Z, the low should consolidate and reach central or west-central AR, with cold front southwestward across north-central and west- central TX to southeastern NM. The main low should redevelop to the northeast over KY tonight, then move to a 12Z position roughly near MGW, with cold front then extending to near the NC/TN line, northern AL, south-central MS, southeastern LA, shelf waters off the middle/ upper TX Coast, to deep south TX. ...MS/AL... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop near the cold front overnight -- most likely after 06Z -- with marginal potential for a tornado, isolated damaging winds or severe hail. Despite the veered (southwesterly) surface flow ahead of the front, a 40-50-kt west-southwesterly LLJ should contribute to long low- level hodographs with some curvature. That will foster 200-300 J/kg effective and 0-1-km SRH values (locally higher), amidst 45-55-kt effective-shear magnitudes and a narrow, front-parallel plume of 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. However, with the veering prefrontal flow, lift along the front will be compromised to some extent, causing uncertainty on storm coverage. Also, weak boundary-layer lapse rates -- characteristic of this time of day in marginal-moisture scenarios -- may yield long time windows for convective deepening, potentially limiting storm strength at maturity if activity merges with other precip or moves into weaker instability, as progged. Given these concerns, the threat continues to appear limited but nonzero in nature, and has been removed from previous northwestern areas where it now appears frontal passage will precede substantial deep development. ...Coastal FL Panhandle to southwestern GA... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are possible late tonight, with a low-end but not negligible tornado and strong/ severe-gust threat. Development would be concentrated near a maximum in boundary-layer lift accompanying southwest/northeast-oriented, low-level, prefrontal confluence axis, undergoing theta-e advection from favorably modifying maritime air on the north rim of the Loop Current. Modified forecast soundings show progressive lift and erosion of a stable/capping layer from about 650-800 mb, located beneath 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE, as warm advection persists below that stable layer and lift continues along the kinematic boundary. This may support development of a few thunderstorms after 06Z, with enough low-level and deep shear on the east side of the boundary (where surface winds will be relatively backed) to support supercell potential, amidst roughly 40 kt effective-shear magnitudes and 100-150 J/kg of 0-1-km SRH. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 11/27/2024 Read more