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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms not expected through tonight. ...Upper OH Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a strong and progressive shortwave trough moving across the central/northern Plains. As this feature tracks eastward, the associated surface cold front will advance across the upper OH and TN Valleys. Most 12z CAM solutions suggest a corridor of slightly greater thunderstorm potential - mainly after dark - along the front from eastern KY into adjacent parts of OH/WV and eventually southwest PA. Strong winds aloft and a rather focused low-level jet feature may aid in the development of gusty winds in sustained showers or thunderstorms in this region. However, very minimal CAPE suggests the risk of severe storms is rather low. ..Hart/Thornton.. 11/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1011 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024 Valid 251630Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms not expected through tonight. ...Upper OH Valley... Morning water vapor imagery shows a strong and progressive shortwave trough moving across the central/northern Plains. As this feature tracks eastward, the associated surface cold front will advance across the upper OH and TN Valleys. Most 12z CAM solutions suggest a corridor of slightly greater thunderstorm potential - mainly after dark - along the front from eastern KY into adjacent parts of OH/WV and eventually southwest PA. Strong winds aloft and a rather focused low-level jet feature may aid in the development of gusty winds in sustained showers or thunderstorms in this region. However, very minimal CAPE suggests the risk of severe storms is rather low. ..Hart/Thornton.. 11/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0626 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe-thunderstorm areas are forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A progressive, lower-amplitude pattern will prevail across the CONUS this period, compared to the preceding week. A small cyclone now centered over the southern SK/MB border area is forecast to accelerate slightly and elongate southeastward, reaching that part of ON just north of the MN border by 12Z tomorrow. As this occurs, a basal shortwave trough -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery from eastern SD to western CO -- should move eastward. This trough will cross the mid/upper Mississippi Valley in the 21-03Z time frame, then become negatively tilted, reaching Georgian Bay, southern ON, and Lake Erie by 12Z. The associated surface frontal-wave low was analyzed at 11Z from a low over northern IL, southwestward near STL, FYV and ADM, to a weak low near HOB. By 00Z, the main/northern low should reach eastern Lower MI, with cold front across western parts of OH/KY/TN, northern parts of LA/MS, and the TX Gulf Coastal Plain. By 12Z, the cold front should extend from eastern PA across western parts of VA/NC, northern GA/AL, southern MS/LA, and across the northwestern Gulf shelf waters to near BRO. Farther west, another mid/upper-level cyclone was centered over Pacific waters west of OR, near 44N130W. This feature is expected to devolve to an open-wave, positively tilted trough as it approaches the coast today. The trough should cross the coast between the Olympic Peninsula and northwestern CA obliquely, from north-south, from 00Z to 12Z. Preceding the trough, DCVA/cooling in midlevels will steepen lapse rates and support potential for isolated thunderstorms, particularly over the relatively moist Pacific boundary layer near the coast. ...Lower Mississippi to Tennessee Valleys... Stronger deep-layer/large-scale lift will occur near the front in the Ohio Valley to north-central Appalachians, but with poor moisture return greatly limiting overall buoyancy. Somewhat greater moisture -- but still in quite incompletely modified return-flow trajectories with dewpoints generally low/mid 60s F in a shallow layer -- is forecast in a narrow prefrontal corridor over the lower Mississippi to Tennessee Valleys from late afternoon through this evening. However, weak low/middle-level lapse rates (only barely above moist adiabatic) will limit buoyancy there, with MLCAPE mostly remaining under 500 J/kg. Briefly enlarged low-level hodographs appear in some forecast soundings along or just east of the prefrontal moist axis, especially from northern/eastern LA to northern MS, suggesting non-zero storm-scale rotation potential for any cell(s) that can mature fast enough before moving out of surface-based inflow. At this time, severe risk appears too minimal and conditional for an outlook. However, the scenario will be revisited for evidence of greater unconditional potential, in succeeding outlook cycles. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 11/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0626 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe-thunderstorm areas are forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A progressive, lower-amplitude pattern will prevail across the CONUS this period, compared to the preceding week. A small cyclone now centered over the southern SK/MB border area is forecast to accelerate slightly and elongate southeastward, reaching that part of ON just north of the MN border by 12Z tomorrow. As this occurs, a basal shortwave trough -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery from eastern SD to western CO -- should move eastward. This trough will cross the mid/upper Mississippi Valley in the 21-03Z time frame, then become negatively tilted, reaching Georgian Bay, southern ON, and Lake Erie by 12Z. The associated surface frontal-wave low was analyzed at 11Z from a low over northern IL, southwestward near STL, FYV and ADM, to a weak low near HOB. By 00Z, the main/northern low should reach eastern Lower MI, with cold front across western parts of OH/KY/TN, northern parts of LA/MS, and the TX Gulf Coastal Plain. By 12Z, the cold front should extend from eastern PA across western parts of VA/NC, northern GA/AL, southern MS/LA, and across the northwestern Gulf shelf waters to near BRO. Farther west, another mid/upper-level cyclone was centered over Pacific waters west of OR, near 44N130W. This feature is expected to devolve to an open-wave, positively tilted trough as it approaches the coast today. The trough should cross the coast between the Olympic Peninsula and northwestern CA obliquely, from north-south, from 00Z to 12Z. Preceding the trough, DCVA/cooling in midlevels will steepen lapse rates and support potential for isolated thunderstorms, particularly over the relatively moist Pacific boundary layer near the coast. ...Lower Mississippi to Tennessee Valleys... Stronger deep-layer/large-scale lift will occur near the front in the Ohio Valley to north-central Appalachians, but with poor moisture return greatly limiting overall buoyancy. Somewhat greater moisture -- but still in quite incompletely modified return-flow trajectories with dewpoints generally low/mid 60s F in a shallow layer -- is forecast in a narrow prefrontal corridor over the lower Mississippi to Tennessee Valleys from late afternoon through this evening. However, weak low/middle-level lapse rates (only barely above moist adiabatic) will limit buoyancy there, with MLCAPE mostly remaining under 500 J/kg. Briefly enlarged low-level hodographs appear in some forecast soundings along or just east of the prefrontal moist axis, especially from northern/eastern LA to northern MS, suggesting non-zero storm-scale rotation potential for any cell(s) that can mature fast enough before moving out of surface-based inflow. At this time, severe risk appears too minimal and conditional for an outlook. However, the scenario will be revisited for evidence of greater unconditional potential, in succeeding outlook cycles. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 11/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0626 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe-thunderstorm areas are forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A progressive, lower-amplitude pattern will prevail across the CONUS this period, compared to the preceding week. A small cyclone now centered over the southern SK/MB border area is forecast to accelerate slightly and elongate southeastward, reaching that part of ON just north of the MN border by 12Z tomorrow. As this occurs, a basal shortwave trough -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery from eastern SD to western CO -- should move eastward. This trough will cross the mid/upper Mississippi Valley in the 21-03Z time frame, then become negatively tilted, reaching Georgian Bay, southern ON, and Lake Erie by 12Z. The associated surface frontal-wave low was analyzed at 11Z from a low over northern IL, southwestward near STL, FYV and ADM, to a weak low near HOB. By 00Z, the main/northern low should reach eastern Lower MI, with cold front across western parts of OH/KY/TN, northern parts of LA/MS, and the TX Gulf Coastal Plain. By 12Z, the cold front should extend from eastern PA across western parts of VA/NC, northern GA/AL, southern MS/LA, and across the northwestern Gulf shelf waters to near BRO. Farther west, another mid/upper-level cyclone was centered over Pacific waters west of OR, near 44N130W. This feature is expected to devolve to an open-wave, positively tilted trough as it approaches the coast today. The trough should cross the coast between the Olympic Peninsula and northwestern CA obliquely, from north-south, from 00Z to 12Z. Preceding the trough, DCVA/cooling in midlevels will steepen lapse rates and support potential for isolated thunderstorms, particularly over the relatively moist Pacific boundary layer near the coast. ...Lower Mississippi to Tennessee Valleys... Stronger deep-layer/large-scale lift will occur near the front in the Ohio Valley to north-central Appalachians, but with poor moisture return greatly limiting overall buoyancy. Somewhat greater moisture -- but still in quite incompletely modified return-flow trajectories with dewpoints generally low/mid 60s F in a shallow layer -- is forecast in a narrow prefrontal corridor over the lower Mississippi to Tennessee Valleys from late afternoon through this evening. However, weak low/middle-level lapse rates (only barely above moist adiabatic) will limit buoyancy there, with MLCAPE mostly remaining under 500 J/kg. Briefly enlarged low-level hodographs appear in some forecast soundings along or just east of the prefrontal moist axis, especially from northern/eastern LA to northern MS, suggesting non-zero storm-scale rotation potential for any cell(s) that can mature fast enough before moving out of surface-based inflow. At this time, severe risk appears too minimal and conditional for an outlook. However, the scenario will be revisited for evidence of greater unconditional potential, in succeeding outlook cycles. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 11/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0626 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe-thunderstorm areas are forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A progressive, lower-amplitude pattern will prevail across the CONUS this period, compared to the preceding week. A small cyclone now centered over the southern SK/MB border area is forecast to accelerate slightly and elongate southeastward, reaching that part of ON just north of the MN border by 12Z tomorrow. As this occurs, a basal shortwave trough -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery from eastern SD to western CO -- should move eastward. This trough will cross the mid/upper Mississippi Valley in the 21-03Z time frame, then become negatively tilted, reaching Georgian Bay, southern ON, and Lake Erie by 12Z. The associated surface frontal-wave low was analyzed at 11Z from a low over northern IL, southwestward near STL, FYV and ADM, to a weak low near HOB. By 00Z, the main/northern low should reach eastern Lower MI, with cold front across western parts of OH/KY/TN, northern parts of LA/MS, and the TX Gulf Coastal Plain. By 12Z, the cold front should extend from eastern PA across western parts of VA/NC, northern GA/AL, southern MS/LA, and across the northwestern Gulf shelf waters to near BRO. Farther west, another mid/upper-level cyclone was centered over Pacific waters west of OR, near 44N130W. This feature is expected to devolve to an open-wave, positively tilted trough as it approaches the coast today. The trough should cross the coast between the Olympic Peninsula and northwestern CA obliquely, from north-south, from 00Z to 12Z. Preceding the trough, DCVA/cooling in midlevels will steepen lapse rates and support potential for isolated thunderstorms, particularly over the relatively moist Pacific boundary layer near the coast. ...Lower Mississippi to Tennessee Valleys... Stronger deep-layer/large-scale lift will occur near the front in the Ohio Valley to north-central Appalachians, but with poor moisture return greatly limiting overall buoyancy. Somewhat greater moisture -- but still in quite incompletely modified return-flow trajectories with dewpoints generally low/mid 60s F in a shallow layer -- is forecast in a narrow prefrontal corridor over the lower Mississippi to Tennessee Valleys from late afternoon through this evening. However, weak low/middle-level lapse rates (only barely above moist adiabatic) will limit buoyancy there, with MLCAPE mostly remaining under 500 J/kg. Briefly enlarged low-level hodographs appear in some forecast soundings along or just east of the prefrontal moist axis, especially from northern/eastern LA to northern MS, suggesting non-zero storm-scale rotation potential for any cell(s) that can mature fast enough before moving out of surface-based inflow. At this time, severe risk appears too minimal and conditional for an outlook. However, the scenario will be revisited for evidence of greater unconditional potential, in succeeding outlook cycles. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 11/25/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0626 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... No severe-thunderstorm areas are forecast through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... A progressive, lower-amplitude pattern will prevail across the CONUS this period, compared to the preceding week. A small cyclone now centered over the southern SK/MB border area is forecast to accelerate slightly and elongate southeastward, reaching that part of ON just north of the MN border by 12Z tomorrow. As this occurs, a basal shortwave trough -- apparent in moisture-channel imagery from eastern SD to western CO -- should move eastward. This trough will cross the mid/upper Mississippi Valley in the 21-03Z time frame, then become negatively tilted, reaching Georgian Bay, southern ON, and Lake Erie by 12Z. The associated surface frontal-wave low was analyzed at 11Z from a low over northern IL, southwestward near STL, FYV and ADM, to a weak low near HOB. By 00Z, the main/northern low should reach eastern Lower MI, with cold front across western parts of OH/KY/TN, northern parts of LA/MS, and the TX Gulf Coastal Plain. By 12Z, the cold front should extend from eastern PA across western parts of VA/NC, northern GA/AL, southern MS/LA, and across the northwestern Gulf shelf waters to near BRO. Farther west, another mid/upper-level cyclone was centered over Pacific waters west of OR, near 44N130W. This feature is expected to devolve to an open-wave, positively tilted trough as it approaches the coast today. The trough should cross the coast between the Olympic Peninsula and northwestern CA obliquely, from north-south, from 00Z to 12Z. Preceding the trough, DCVA/cooling in midlevels will steepen lapse rates and support potential for isolated thunderstorms, particularly over the relatively moist Pacific boundary layer near the coast. ...Lower Mississippi to Tennessee Valleys... Stronger deep-layer/large-scale lift will occur near the front in the Ohio Valley to north-central Appalachians, but with poor moisture return greatly limiting overall buoyancy. Somewhat greater moisture -- but still in quite incompletely modified return-flow trajectories with dewpoints generally low/mid 60s F in a shallow layer -- is forecast in a narrow prefrontal corridor over the lower Mississippi to Tennessee Valleys from late afternoon through this evening. However, weak low/middle-level lapse rates (only barely above moist adiabatic) will limit buoyancy there, with MLCAPE mostly remaining under 500 J/kg. Briefly enlarged low-level hodographs appear in some forecast soundings along or just east of the prefrontal moist axis, especially from northern/eastern LA to northern MS, suggesting non-zero storm-scale rotation potential for any cell(s) that can mature fast enough before moving out of surface-based inflow. At this time, severe risk appears too minimal and conditional for an outlook. However, the scenario will be revisited for evidence of greater unconditional potential, in succeeding outlook cycles. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 11/25/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... For the Thu/D4 to Fri/D5 period, an upper trough over the MS/OH/TN Valleys will continue to amplify, aided by a backside speed max moving from the northern Plains toward the OH Valley. Given the phasing aspect of this setup, models show appreciable variability with timing and location of the resulting large trough, and surface low position. However, the primary facet to severe potential will be the less-than-optimal warm sector which will exist ahead of the cold front. GFS members are slower with both the front and the upper trough as compared to ECWMF, which has the front offshore by Thu/D4 evening. In either case, strongly veering 850 mb winds and associated drying will impact severe potential. While predictability is currently low due to large model spread, potential does exist for scattered strong storms, primary over parts of AL and GA on Thursday. However, a faster model solution could result in minimal threat over land, except perhaps far eastern GA and the Carolinas. As such, trends will be monitored in coming days for potential risk areas. After this front moves offshore late Thursday, the remainder of the period will see a relatively cool and stable pattern, with strong northwest flow aloft persisting across the Plains, and periodic surges of high pressure. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... For the Thu/D4 to Fri/D5 period, an upper trough over the MS/OH/TN Valleys will continue to amplify, aided by a backside speed max moving from the northern Plains toward the OH Valley. Given the phasing aspect of this setup, models show appreciable variability with timing and location of the resulting large trough, and surface low position. However, the primary facet to severe potential will be the less-than-optimal warm sector which will exist ahead of the cold front. GFS members are slower with both the front and the upper trough as compared to ECWMF, which has the front offshore by Thu/D4 evening. In either case, strongly veering 850 mb winds and associated drying will impact severe potential. While predictability is currently low due to large model spread, potential does exist for scattered strong storms, primary over parts of AL and GA on Thursday. However, a faster model solution could result in minimal threat over land, except perhaps far eastern GA and the Carolinas. As such, trends will be monitored in coming days for potential risk areas. After this front moves offshore late Thursday, the remainder of the period will see a relatively cool and stable pattern, with strong northwest flow aloft persisting across the Plains, and periodic surges of high pressure. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... For the Thu/D4 to Fri/D5 period, an upper trough over the MS/OH/TN Valleys will continue to amplify, aided by a backside speed max moving from the northern Plains toward the OH Valley. Given the phasing aspect of this setup, models show appreciable variability with timing and location of the resulting large trough, and surface low position. However, the primary facet to severe potential will be the less-than-optimal warm sector which will exist ahead of the cold front. GFS members are slower with both the front and the upper trough as compared to ECWMF, which has the front offshore by Thu/D4 evening. In either case, strongly veering 850 mb winds and associated drying will impact severe potential. While predictability is currently low due to large model spread, potential does exist for scattered strong storms, primary over parts of AL and GA on Thursday. However, a faster model solution could result in minimal threat over land, except perhaps far eastern GA and the Carolinas. As such, trends will be monitored in coming days for potential risk areas. After this front moves offshore late Thursday, the remainder of the period will see a relatively cool and stable pattern, with strong northwest flow aloft persisting across the Plains, and periodic surges of high pressure. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... For the Thu/D4 to Fri/D5 period, an upper trough over the MS/OH/TN Valleys will continue to amplify, aided by a backside speed max moving from the northern Plains toward the OH Valley. Given the phasing aspect of this setup, models show appreciable variability with timing and location of the resulting large trough, and surface low position. However, the primary facet to severe potential will be the less-than-optimal warm sector which will exist ahead of the cold front. GFS members are slower with both the front and the upper trough as compared to ECWMF, which has the front offshore by Thu/D4 evening. In either case, strongly veering 850 mb winds and associated drying will impact severe potential. While predictability is currently low due to large model spread, potential does exist for scattered strong storms, primary over parts of AL and GA on Thursday. However, a faster model solution could result in minimal threat over land, except perhaps far eastern GA and the Carolinas. As such, trends will be monitored in coming days for potential risk areas. After this front moves offshore late Thursday, the remainder of the period will see a relatively cool and stable pattern, with strong northwest flow aloft persisting across the Plains, and periodic surges of high pressure. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0337 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024 Valid 281200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... For the Thu/D4 to Fri/D5 period, an upper trough over the MS/OH/TN Valleys will continue to amplify, aided by a backside speed max moving from the northern Plains toward the OH Valley. Given the phasing aspect of this setup, models show appreciable variability with timing and location of the resulting large trough, and surface low position. However, the primary facet to severe potential will be the less-than-optimal warm sector which will exist ahead of the cold front. GFS members are slower with both the front and the upper trough as compared to ECWMF, which has the front offshore by Thu/D4 evening. In either case, strongly veering 850 mb winds and associated drying will impact severe potential. While predictability is currently low due to large model spread, potential does exist for scattered strong storms, primary over parts of AL and GA on Thursday. However, a faster model solution could result in minimal threat over land, except perhaps far eastern GA and the Carolinas. As such, trends will be monitored in coming days for potential risk areas. After this front moves offshore late Thursday, the remainder of the period will see a relatively cool and stable pattern, with strong northwest flow aloft persisting across the Plains, and periodic surges of high pressure. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are most likely Wednesday night over parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, an upper trough will develop from the Upper MS Valley into the central Plains as an 80 kt 500 mb speed max moves across northern TX and OK. Height falls with this system will spread over much of the OH/TN Valleys and southeastern states, with the speed max likely intensifying through 12Z Thursday. At the surface, low pressure will move from OK toward the MO Bootheel trough 00Z, then will gradually deepen into WV overnight. A cold front will trail southwestward from the low, providing lift as it interacts with a developing moist plume across the Gulf Coast States. ...Sabine Valley into the TN Valley... A warm front will be situated along the northern Gulf Coast Wednesday morning, and will move north across much of LA during the day. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will likely exist from southeast TX across southern LA by 00Z. The air mass will likely remain capped during the day, but scattered thunderstorms are forecast overnight as the front continues east. Despite strengthening deep-layer shear (with strongly veered 850 mb flow), the main mitigating factor will be the relatively cool boundary layer and inversion near 700 mb. This should preclude much activity away from the front, and reduce severe potential overall. However, deepening of the moist boundary layer overnight along the front, beneath strong westerly flow, could result in a few strong storms producing damaging gusts. Given these factors, will not introduce low severe probabilities this outlook cycle. ..Jewell.. 11/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are most likely Wednesday night over parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, an upper trough will develop from the Upper MS Valley into the central Plains as an 80 kt 500 mb speed max moves across northern TX and OK. Height falls with this system will spread over much of the OH/TN Valleys and southeastern states, with the speed max likely intensifying through 12Z Thursday. At the surface, low pressure will move from OK toward the MO Bootheel trough 00Z, then will gradually deepen into WV overnight. A cold front will trail southwestward from the low, providing lift as it interacts with a developing moist plume across the Gulf Coast States. ...Sabine Valley into the TN Valley... A warm front will be situated along the northern Gulf Coast Wednesday morning, and will move north across much of LA during the day. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will likely exist from southeast TX across southern LA by 00Z. The air mass will likely remain capped during the day, but scattered thunderstorms are forecast overnight as the front continues east. Despite strengthening deep-layer shear (with strongly veered 850 mb flow), the main mitigating factor will be the relatively cool boundary layer and inversion near 700 mb. This should preclude much activity away from the front, and reduce severe potential overall. However, deepening of the moist boundary layer overnight along the front, beneath strong westerly flow, could result in a few strong storms producing damaging gusts. Given these factors, will not introduce low severe probabilities this outlook cycle. ..Jewell.. 11/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are most likely Wednesday night over parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, an upper trough will develop from the Upper MS Valley into the central Plains as an 80 kt 500 mb speed max moves across northern TX and OK. Height falls with this system will spread over much of the OH/TN Valleys and southeastern states, with the speed max likely intensifying through 12Z Thursday. At the surface, low pressure will move from OK toward the MO Bootheel trough 00Z, then will gradually deepen into WV overnight. A cold front will trail southwestward from the low, providing lift as it interacts with a developing moist plume across the Gulf Coast States. ...Sabine Valley into the TN Valley... A warm front will be situated along the northern Gulf Coast Wednesday morning, and will move north across much of LA during the day. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will likely exist from southeast TX across southern LA by 00Z. The air mass will likely remain capped during the day, but scattered thunderstorms are forecast overnight as the front continues east. Despite strengthening deep-layer shear (with strongly veered 850 mb flow), the main mitigating factor will be the relatively cool boundary layer and inversion near 700 mb. This should preclude much activity away from the front, and reduce severe potential overall. However, deepening of the moist boundary layer overnight along the front, beneath strong westerly flow, could result in a few strong storms producing damaging gusts. Given these factors, will not introduce low severe probabilities this outlook cycle. ..Jewell.. 11/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are most likely Wednesday night over parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, an upper trough will develop from the Upper MS Valley into the central Plains as an 80 kt 500 mb speed max moves across northern TX and OK. Height falls with this system will spread over much of the OH/TN Valleys and southeastern states, with the speed max likely intensifying through 12Z Thursday. At the surface, low pressure will move from OK toward the MO Bootheel trough 00Z, then will gradually deepen into WV overnight. A cold front will trail southwestward from the low, providing lift as it interacts with a developing moist plume across the Gulf Coast States. ...Sabine Valley into the TN Valley... A warm front will be situated along the northern Gulf Coast Wednesday morning, and will move north across much of LA during the day. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will likely exist from southeast TX across southern LA by 00Z. The air mass will likely remain capped during the day, but scattered thunderstorms are forecast overnight as the front continues east. Despite strengthening deep-layer shear (with strongly veered 850 mb flow), the main mitigating factor will be the relatively cool boundary layer and inversion near 700 mb. This should preclude much activity away from the front, and reduce severe potential overall. However, deepening of the moist boundary layer overnight along the front, beneath strong westerly flow, could result in a few strong storms producing damaging gusts. Given these factors, will not introduce low severe probabilities this outlook cycle. ..Jewell.. 11/25/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are most likely Wednesday night over parts of the lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, an upper trough will develop from the Upper MS Valley into the central Plains as an 80 kt 500 mb speed max moves across northern TX and OK. Height falls with this system will spread over much of the OH/TN Valleys and southeastern states, with the speed max likely intensifying through 12Z Thursday. At the surface, low pressure will move from OK toward the MO Bootheel trough 00Z, then will gradually deepen into WV overnight. A cold front will trail southwestward from the low, providing lift as it interacts with a developing moist plume across the Gulf Coast States. ...Sabine Valley into the TN Valley... A warm front will be situated along the northern Gulf Coast Wednesday morning, and will move north across much of LA during the day. Mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will likely exist from southeast TX across southern LA by 00Z. The air mass will likely remain capped during the day, but scattered thunderstorms are forecast overnight as the front continues east. Despite strengthening deep-layer shear (with strongly veered 850 mb flow), the main mitigating factor will be the relatively cool boundary layer and inversion near 700 mb. This should preclude much activity away from the front, and reduce severe potential overall. However, deepening of the moist boundary layer overnight along the front, beneath strong westerly flow, could result in a few strong storms producing damaging gusts. Given these factors, will not introduce low severe probabilities this outlook cycle. ..Jewell.. 11/25/2024 Read more

Delaware’s outdoor burn ban that took effect on Oct. 15 has ended. The state remained in a drought watch. Delaware Online (Dover, Del.), Nov 25, 2024 Due to dry conditions, the Delaware State Fire Marshal enacted a burn ban on Tuesday, Oct. 15. Bonfires, controlled burns, agricultural burns, land clearing burns are some of the fires that are prohibited. The ban will remain in effect until measurable rain falls again. The News Journal Online (Delaware), Oct 15, 2024

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong, broad, zonal mid-level flow will overspread the CONUS as a mid-level trough traverses the Interior West tomorrow (Tuesday). Surface high pressure will build over the East and West Coasts while a surface low develops over the southern Plains. Modest return flow with the surface low will promote breezy conditions over the central and southern Plains. However, the lack of lower RH and receptive fuels precludes fire weather highlights. Elsewhere across the CONUS, the lack of either a stronger surface wind field, low enough RH, or dry enough fuels, suggest that widespread significant wildfire-spread concerns should remain limited. ..Squitieri.. 11/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Strong, broad, zonal mid-level flow will overspread the CONUS as a mid-level trough traverses the Interior West tomorrow (Tuesday). Surface high pressure will build over the East and West Coasts while a surface low develops over the southern Plains. Modest return flow with the surface low will promote breezy conditions over the central and southern Plains. However, the lack of lower RH and receptive fuels precludes fire weather highlights. Elsewhere across the CONUS, the lack of either a stronger surface wind field, low enough RH, or dry enough fuels, suggest that widespread significant wildfire-spread concerns should remain limited. ..Squitieri.. 11/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more