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SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little if any thunderstorms are expected over the USA on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a negative-tilt upper trough will pivot out of the Great Lakes and into Quebec, with rising heights and a zonal flow regime from the Plains eastward. Meanwhile, a strong but positive-tilt wave will move across the Great Basin and toward the central Rockies. At the surface, low pressure will likewise pivot into Quebec, with a cold front pushing off the Mid Atlantic Coast and stalling along the north-central Gulf Coast. While a small plume of low 60s F dewpoints may exist ahead of the front over parts of AL into southern GA during the day, rapid drying will occur aloft. Minuscule instability may be present early, but both lapse rates and ascent appear hostile to much moist convection. ..Jewell.. 11/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little if any thunderstorms are expected over the USA on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a negative-tilt upper trough will pivot out of the Great Lakes and into Quebec, with rising heights and a zonal flow regime from the Plains eastward. Meanwhile, a strong but positive-tilt wave will move across the Great Basin and toward the central Rockies. At the surface, low pressure will likewise pivot into Quebec, with a cold front pushing off the Mid Atlantic Coast and stalling along the north-central Gulf Coast. While a small plume of low 60s F dewpoints may exist ahead of the front over parts of AL into southern GA during the day, rapid drying will occur aloft. Minuscule instability may be present early, but both lapse rates and ascent appear hostile to much moist convection. ..Jewell.. 11/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little if any thunderstorms are expected over the USA on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a negative-tilt upper trough will pivot out of the Great Lakes and into Quebec, with rising heights and a zonal flow regime from the Plains eastward. Meanwhile, a strong but positive-tilt wave will move across the Great Basin and toward the central Rockies. At the surface, low pressure will likewise pivot into Quebec, with a cold front pushing off the Mid Atlantic Coast and stalling along the north-central Gulf Coast. While a small plume of low 60s F dewpoints may exist ahead of the front over parts of AL into southern GA during the day, rapid drying will occur aloft. Minuscule instability may be present early, but both lapse rates and ascent appear hostile to much moist convection. ..Jewell.. 11/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little if any thunderstorms are expected over the USA on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a negative-tilt upper trough will pivot out of the Great Lakes and into Quebec, with rising heights and a zonal flow regime from the Plains eastward. Meanwhile, a strong but positive-tilt wave will move across the Great Basin and toward the central Rockies. At the surface, low pressure will likewise pivot into Quebec, with a cold front pushing off the Mid Atlantic Coast and stalling along the north-central Gulf Coast. While a small plume of low 60s F dewpoints may exist ahead of the front over parts of AL into southern GA during the day, rapid drying will occur aloft. Minuscule instability may be present early, but both lapse rates and ascent appear hostile to much moist convection. ..Jewell.. 11/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Little if any thunderstorms are expected over the USA on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... On Tuesday, a negative-tilt upper trough will pivot out of the Great Lakes and into Quebec, with rising heights and a zonal flow regime from the Plains eastward. Meanwhile, a strong but positive-tilt wave will move across the Great Basin and toward the central Rockies. At the surface, low pressure will likewise pivot into Quebec, with a cold front pushing off the Mid Atlantic Coast and stalling along the north-central Gulf Coast. While a small plume of low 60s F dewpoints may exist ahead of the front over parts of AL into southern GA during the day, rapid drying will occur aloft. Minuscule instability may be present early, but both lapse rates and ascent appear hostile to much moist convection. ..Jewell.. 11/24/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will take on a negative tilt across the Great Lakes on Monday, helping to deepen a surface low across the eastern Great Lakes. Showers will develop along the attendant surface cold front as it progress east across the lower Mississippi Valley and much of the Ohio Valley before approaching the East Coast early Tuesday. To the west, zonal to broadly anticyclonic mid-level flow will develop across the central United States ahead of another mid-level trough. This will support/maintain a surface ridge across the Plains, allowing winds to relax and promoting limited fire weather concerns. ..Marsh.. 11/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will take on a negative tilt across the Great Lakes on Monday, helping to deepen a surface low across the eastern Great Lakes. Showers will develop along the attendant surface cold front as it progress east across the lower Mississippi Valley and much of the Ohio Valley before approaching the East Coast early Tuesday. To the west, zonal to broadly anticyclonic mid-level flow will develop across the central United States ahead of another mid-level trough. This will support/maintain a surface ridge across the Plains, allowing winds to relax and promoting limited fire weather concerns. ..Marsh.. 11/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will take on a negative tilt across the Great Lakes on Monday, helping to deepen a surface low across the eastern Great Lakes. Showers will develop along the attendant surface cold front as it progress east across the lower Mississippi Valley and much of the Ohio Valley before approaching the East Coast early Tuesday. To the west, zonal to broadly anticyclonic mid-level flow will develop across the central United States ahead of another mid-level trough. This will support/maintain a surface ridge across the Plains, allowing winds to relax and promoting limited fire weather concerns. ..Marsh.. 11/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0132 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will take on a negative tilt across the Great Lakes on Monday, helping to deepen a surface low across the eastern Great Lakes. Showers will develop along the attendant surface cold front as it progress east across the lower Mississippi Valley and much of the Ohio Valley before approaching the East Coast early Tuesday. To the west, zonal to broadly anticyclonic mid-level flow will develop across the central United States ahead of another mid-level trough. This will support/maintain a surface ridge across the Plains, allowing winds to relax and promoting limited fire weather concerns. ..Marsh.. 11/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move through the Northern Plains today, and as it does, the attendant surface low will also move east -- from the central Plains into the mid-Mississippi Valley. The cyclonic flow around this surface low will help drive a surface cold front south and east through the Southern Plains. The flow behind this front will be a dry, downslope flow that will support at least a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. However, recent rains have left fuel moisture sufficiently high that fire weather highlights are not warranted. ..Marsh.. 11/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move through the Northern Plains today, and as it does, the attendant surface low will also move east -- from the central Plains into the mid-Mississippi Valley. The cyclonic flow around this surface low will help drive a surface cold front south and east through the Southern Plains. The flow behind this front will be a dry, downslope flow that will support at least a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. However, recent rains have left fuel moisture sufficiently high that fire weather highlights are not warranted. ..Marsh.. 11/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move through the Northern Plains today, and as it does, the attendant surface low will also move east -- from the central Plains into the mid-Mississippi Valley. The cyclonic flow around this surface low will help drive a surface cold front south and east through the Southern Plains. The flow behind this front will be a dry, downslope flow that will support at least a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. However, recent rains have left fuel moisture sufficiently high that fire weather highlights are not warranted. ..Marsh.. 11/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move through the Northern Plains today, and as it does, the attendant surface low will also move east -- from the central Plains into the mid-Mississippi Valley. The cyclonic flow around this surface low will help drive a surface cold front south and east through the Southern Plains. The flow behind this front will be a dry, downslope flow that will support at least a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. However, recent rains have left fuel moisture sufficiently high that fire weather highlights are not warranted. ..Marsh.. 11/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0129 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will move through the Northern Plains today, and as it does, the attendant surface low will also move east -- from the central Plains into the mid-Mississippi Valley. The cyclonic flow around this surface low will help drive a surface cold front south and east through the Southern Plains. The flow behind this front will be a dry, downslope flow that will support at least a few hours of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions. However, recent rains have left fuel moisture sufficiently high that fire weather highlights are not warranted. ..Marsh.. 11/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible late Monday into Monday night from the Sabine Valley into parts of the Mid-South. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong shortwave trough will take on a negative tilt as it sweeps across the upper MS Valley on Monday, and across the upper Great Lakes overnight. Behind this system, a broad fetch of strong flow aloft will extend westward across the Plains and to another wave moving across the Pacific NW and toward the western Great Basin. In association with the leading wave, a surface low will be located over Lower MI during the day, with a cold front extending southwestward across the OH, Lower MS, and Sabine Valleys at 00Z. This front will progress to a southern Appalachians to northwest Gulf of Mexico line by 12Z Tuesday. Ahead of this front, weak instability will develop as 60s F dewpoints spread northeastward across LA, MS, and nosing into AL and western TN. Much of the instability will be elevated in nature, especially on the northern end of the moist plume. Even farther southwest into LA, MLCAPE should only reach about 500 J/kg. Forecast soundings are not particularly favorable for even general thunderstorms with a capping inversion noted. Still, deepening lift along the front and non-zero instability may result in isolated weak thunderstorms along the front. ..Jewell.. 11/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible late Monday into Monday night from the Sabine Valley into parts of the Mid-South. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong shortwave trough will take on a negative tilt as it sweeps across the upper MS Valley on Monday, and across the upper Great Lakes overnight. Behind this system, a broad fetch of strong flow aloft will extend westward across the Plains and to another wave moving across the Pacific NW and toward the western Great Basin. In association with the leading wave, a surface low will be located over Lower MI during the day, with a cold front extending southwestward across the OH, Lower MS, and Sabine Valleys at 00Z. This front will progress to a southern Appalachians to northwest Gulf of Mexico line by 12Z Tuesday. Ahead of this front, weak instability will develop as 60s F dewpoints spread northeastward across LA, MS, and nosing into AL and western TN. Much of the instability will be elevated in nature, especially on the northern end of the moist plume. Even farther southwest into LA, MLCAPE should only reach about 500 J/kg. Forecast soundings are not particularly favorable for even general thunderstorms with a capping inversion noted. Still, deepening lift along the front and non-zero instability may result in isolated weak thunderstorms along the front. ..Jewell.. 11/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible late Monday into Monday night from the Sabine Valley into parts of the Mid-South. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong shortwave trough will take on a negative tilt as it sweeps across the upper MS Valley on Monday, and across the upper Great Lakes overnight. Behind this system, a broad fetch of strong flow aloft will extend westward across the Plains and to another wave moving across the Pacific NW and toward the western Great Basin. In association with the leading wave, a surface low will be located over Lower MI during the day, with a cold front extending southwestward across the OH, Lower MS, and Sabine Valleys at 00Z. This front will progress to a southern Appalachians to northwest Gulf of Mexico line by 12Z Tuesday. Ahead of this front, weak instability will develop as 60s F dewpoints spread northeastward across LA, MS, and nosing into AL and western TN. Much of the instability will be elevated in nature, especially on the northern end of the moist plume. Even farther southwest into LA, MLCAPE should only reach about 500 J/kg. Forecast soundings are not particularly favorable for even general thunderstorms with a capping inversion noted. Still, deepening lift along the front and non-zero instability may result in isolated weak thunderstorms along the front. ..Jewell.. 11/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible late Monday into Monday night from the Sabine Valley into parts of the Mid-South. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong shortwave trough will take on a negative tilt as it sweeps across the upper MS Valley on Monday, and across the upper Great Lakes overnight. Behind this system, a broad fetch of strong flow aloft will extend westward across the Plains and to another wave moving across the Pacific NW and toward the western Great Basin. In association with the leading wave, a surface low will be located over Lower MI during the day, with a cold front extending southwestward across the OH, Lower MS, and Sabine Valleys at 00Z. This front will progress to a southern Appalachians to northwest Gulf of Mexico line by 12Z Tuesday. Ahead of this front, weak instability will develop as 60s F dewpoints spread northeastward across LA, MS, and nosing into AL and western TN. Much of the instability will be elevated in nature, especially on the northern end of the moist plume. Even farther southwest into LA, MLCAPE should only reach about 500 J/kg. Forecast soundings are not particularly favorable for even general thunderstorms with a capping inversion noted. Still, deepening lift along the front and non-zero instability may result in isolated weak thunderstorms along the front. ..Jewell.. 11/24/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible late Monday into Monday night from the Sabine Valley into parts of the Mid-South. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A strong shortwave trough will take on a negative tilt as it sweeps across the upper MS Valley on Monday, and across the upper Great Lakes overnight. Behind this system, a broad fetch of strong flow aloft will extend westward across the Plains and to another wave moving across the Pacific NW and toward the western Great Basin. In association with the leading wave, a surface low will be located over Lower MI during the day, with a cold front extending southwestward across the OH, Lower MS, and Sabine Valleys at 00Z. This front will progress to a southern Appalachians to northwest Gulf of Mexico line by 12Z Tuesday. Ahead of this front, weak instability will develop as 60s F dewpoints spread northeastward across LA, MS, and nosing into AL and western TN. Much of the instability will be elevated in nature, especially on the northern end of the moist plume. Even farther southwest into LA, MLCAPE should only reach about 500 J/kg. Forecast soundings are not particularly favorable for even general thunderstorms with a capping inversion noted. Still, deepening lift along the front and non-zero instability may result in isolated weak thunderstorms along the front. ..Jewell.. 11/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1139 PM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible today across parts of the western U.S., but no severe threat is expected. ...DISCUSSION... At mid-levels, a low will move slowly southward across the eastern Pacific today, as southwesterly flow remains over much of the Pacific Northwest. Strong large-scale ascent and steep mid-level lapse rates will make thunderstorm development possible across parts of western Oregon and northwestern California. No severe threat is expected across the continental U.S. today or tonight. ..Broyles/Marsh.. 11/24/2024 Read more