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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated severe gust and a brief tornado will be possible this evening across parts of central and northern Alabama. ...Central and Northern Alabama... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a corridor of maximized low-level moisture is located from Alabama into Tennessee, where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing from south-central Alabama north-northwestward into Tennessee. The Birmingham 00Z sounding is located near the instability axis, and has a low-end supercell wind profile with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range. This could support an isolated threat for severe gusts over the next couple of hours. A brief tornado could also occur. However, low-level lapse rates are poor and low-level shear is weak. As the boundary layer cools, the environment should become less favorable for severe storms. ..Broyles.. 09/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated severe gust and a brief tornado will be possible this evening across parts of central and northern Alabama. ...Central and Northern Alabama... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a corridor of maximized low-level moisture is located from Alabama into Tennessee, where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing from south-central Alabama north-northwestward into Tennessee. The Birmingham 00Z sounding is located near the instability axis, and has a low-end supercell wind profile with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range. This could support an isolated threat for severe gusts over the next couple of hours. A brief tornado could also occur. However, low-level lapse rates are poor and low-level shear is weak. As the boundary layer cools, the environment should become less favorable for severe storms. ..Broyles.. 09/14/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0756 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 140100Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of isolated severe gust and a brief tornado will be possible this evening across parts of central and northern Alabama. ...Central and Northern Alabama... The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over the mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a corridor of maximized low-level moisture is located from Alabama into Tennessee, where the RAP is analyzing MLCAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing from south-central Alabama north-northwestward into Tennessee. The Birmingham 00Z sounding is located near the instability axis, and has a low-end supercell wind profile with 0-6 km shear in the 35 to 40 knot range. This could support an isolated threat for severe gusts over the next couple of hours. A brief tornado could also occur. However, low-level lapse rates are poor and low-level shear is weak. As the boundary layer cools, the environment should become less favorable for severe storms. ..Broyles.. 09/14/2024 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2024 00:02:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 21:28:46 GMT

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 23:49:10 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 21:28:46 GMT

Issued at 500 PM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 132347 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 6A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 500 PM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 ...CENTER OF ILEANA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 500 PM MST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 109.4W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM ENE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to Loreto * Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM MST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 109.4 West. Ileana is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h). A slow northward to north-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Ileana is forecast to move near or over the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula this evening, and over the southern and central Gulf of California this weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Ileana is expected to weaken to a tropical depression on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Through this weekend, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce rainfall of 4 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Tropical Storm Ileana may result between 6 to 8 inches with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the warning area in southern Baja California Peninsula through this evening and into early Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...CENTER OF ILEANA MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 5:00 PM MST Fri Sep 13 the center of Ileana was located near 23.0, -109.4 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 132312
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Sep 13 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ileana, located near the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

No watches are valid as of Fri Sep 13 22:35:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Sep 13 22:35:01 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A strong upper-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS late this weekend and early next week. This will overspread some dry and breezy conditions across portions of the southern Great Basin. Some Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions may be possible Sunday to Tuesday with the worst conditions likely on Monday as the strongest mid-level flow overspreads the region. Critical probabilities have not been added at this time due to only marginally dry fuels in the region that should be most affected by these stronger winds and only marginally low relative humidity given a Pacific/monsoonal moisture plume which will advect northward on Monday. Otherwise, wetting rainfall is forecast across much of the CONUS during the extended forecast period which should significantly lessen fire weather concerns by later in September. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A strong upper-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS late this weekend and early next week. This will overspread some dry and breezy conditions across portions of the southern Great Basin. Some Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions may be possible Sunday to Tuesday with the worst conditions likely on Monday as the strongest mid-level flow overspreads the region. Critical probabilities have not been added at this time due to only marginally dry fuels in the region that should be most affected by these stronger winds and only marginally low relative humidity given a Pacific/monsoonal moisture plume which will advect northward on Monday. Otherwise, wetting rainfall is forecast across much of the CONUS during the extended forecast period which should significantly lessen fire weather concerns by later in September. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A strong upper-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS late this weekend and early next week. This will overspread some dry and breezy conditions across portions of the southern Great Basin. Some Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions may be possible Sunday to Tuesday with the worst conditions likely on Monday as the strongest mid-level flow overspreads the region. Critical probabilities have not been added at this time due to only marginally dry fuels in the region that should be most affected by these stronger winds and only marginally low relative humidity given a Pacific/monsoonal moisture plume which will advect northward on Monday. Otherwise, wetting rainfall is forecast across much of the CONUS during the extended forecast period which should significantly lessen fire weather concerns by later in September. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A strong upper-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS late this weekend and early next week. This will overspread some dry and breezy conditions across portions of the southern Great Basin. Some Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions may be possible Sunday to Tuesday with the worst conditions likely on Monday as the strongest mid-level flow overspreads the region. Critical probabilities have not been added at this time due to only marginally dry fuels in the region that should be most affected by these stronger winds and only marginally low relative humidity given a Pacific/monsoonal moisture plume which will advect northward on Monday. Otherwise, wetting rainfall is forecast across much of the CONUS during the extended forecast period which should significantly lessen fire weather concerns by later in September. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A strong upper-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS late this weekend and early next week. This will overspread some dry and breezy conditions across portions of the southern Great Basin. Some Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions may be possible Sunday to Tuesday with the worst conditions likely on Monday as the strongest mid-level flow overspreads the region. Critical probabilities have not been added at this time due to only marginally dry fuels in the region that should be most affected by these stronger winds and only marginally low relative humidity given a Pacific/monsoonal moisture plume which will advect northward on Monday. Otherwise, wetting rainfall is forecast across much of the CONUS during the extended forecast period which should significantly lessen fire weather concerns by later in September. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A strong upper-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS late this weekend and early next week. This will overspread some dry and breezy conditions across portions of the southern Great Basin. Some Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions may be possible Sunday to Tuesday with the worst conditions likely on Monday as the strongest mid-level flow overspreads the region. Critical probabilities have not been added at this time due to only marginally dry fuels in the region that should be most affected by these stronger winds and only marginally low relative humidity given a Pacific/monsoonal moisture plume which will advect northward on Monday. Otherwise, wetting rainfall is forecast across much of the CONUS during the extended forecast period which should significantly lessen fire weather concerns by later in September. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A strong upper-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS late this weekend and early next week. This will overspread some dry and breezy conditions across portions of the southern Great Basin. Some Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions may be possible Sunday to Tuesday with the worst conditions likely on Monday as the strongest mid-level flow overspreads the region. Critical probabilities have not been added at this time due to only marginally dry fuels in the region that should be most affected by these stronger winds and only marginally low relative humidity given a Pacific/monsoonal moisture plume which will advect northward on Monday. Otherwise, wetting rainfall is forecast across much of the CONUS during the extended forecast period which should significantly lessen fire weather concerns by later in September. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 211200Z A strong upper-level trough will amplify across the western CONUS late this weekend and early next week. This will overspread some dry and breezy conditions across portions of the southern Great Basin. Some Elevated to Critical fire-weather conditions may be possible Sunday to Tuesday with the worst conditions likely on Monday as the strongest mid-level flow overspreads the region. Critical probabilities have not been added at this time due to only marginally dry fuels in the region that should be most affected by these stronger winds and only marginally low relative humidity given a Pacific/monsoonal moisture plume which will advect northward on Monday. Otherwise, wetting rainfall is forecast across much of the CONUS during the extended forecast period which should significantly lessen fire weather concerns by later in September. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 20:49:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 21:28:46 GMT

Issued at 200 PM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 132041 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 200 PM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 Satellite imagery and radar data from Cabo San Lucas indicate that Ileana remains poorly organized with poorly-defined convective banding around the elongated center. The latest satellite and radar imagery suggests the center is just east of the latest burst of convection south of Cabo San Lucas, and this is in reasonable agreement with positions from recently received ASCAT data. The scatterometer passes show 30-35 kt winds to the east of the center, and based on this and the possibility of undersampling, the initial intensity is held at a possibly generous 40 kt. The scatterometer and and an earlier microwave image show that Ileana is moving slower than thought previously, and the initial motion is now 345/6. A slow north-northwestward to northward motion should continue until the cyclone dissipates, with the center passing near or over the southern end of the Baja California peninsula during the next 6-12 h and then moving over the central and southern Gulf of California. The track guidance shifted a little to the east of the previous guidance, and the new forecast track is a little to the east of the previous track. The cyclone should be moving into an environment of increasing southwesterly to westerly shear and a drier airmass as it moves into the Gulf of California. The intensity guidance is in good agreement that Ileana should weaken, and the new intensity forecast follows this trend. The forecast now calls for the system to become a depression by 36 h, a remnant low by 48 h, and dissipate by 72 h. It is possible that Ileana could decay to a remnant low by 36 h, as the GFS and ECMWF forecast the associated convection to dissipate by that time. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Storm Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of western Mexico and southern Baja California through this weekend. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of Baja California Sur during the next several hours where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 22.7N 109.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 23.7N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 24.9N 109.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 25.8N 110.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 26.6N 110.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/0600Z 27.5N 111.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven