Aggregator

...CENTER OF ILEANA MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... As of 2:00 PM MST Fri Sep 13 the center of Ileana was located near 22.7, -109.4 with movement NNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 132040 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 2100 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JOSE CABO 34 12 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) LA PAZ 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GUAYMAS 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 132040 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 2100 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 109.4W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 45SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.7N 109.4W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 109.2W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 23.7N 109.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 24.9N 109.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 25.8N 110.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 26.6N 110.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.5N 111.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.7N 109.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 14/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal/isolated tornado threat should continue through this afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia, and middle Tennessee. Isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Southeast... The remnant surface circulation associated with Francine located over AR late this morning is forecast to continue filling/weakening through the day as a weak mid-level trough across the Mid-South moves slowly eastward. Surface observations/analysis indicate a front is draped northwest to southeast from western TN into northern/central AL and southern GA. This boundary may serve as a focus for additional convective development this afternoon, even though the overall system is weakening. Cloud cover remains prevalent across much of this region, which should hinder daytime heating to some extent. Poor mid-level lapse rates are also present, which will likely limit updraft intensities. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment expected, modest but sufficient low-level shear will persist through at least early afternoon. This may support occasional low-level updraft rotation, and the threat for a tornado or two. Otherwise, occasional damaging winds may also occur with any robust thunderstorm that can persist. This isolated/marginal severe threat should remain focused along/near the surface front, before waning this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal/isolated tornado threat should continue through this afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia, and middle Tennessee. Isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Southeast... The remnant surface circulation associated with Francine located over AR late this morning is forecast to continue filling/weakening through the day as a weak mid-level trough across the Mid-South moves slowly eastward. Surface observations/analysis indicate a front is draped northwest to southeast from western TN into northern/central AL and southern GA. This boundary may serve as a focus for additional convective development this afternoon, even though the overall system is weakening. Cloud cover remains prevalent across much of this region, which should hinder daytime heating to some extent. Poor mid-level lapse rates are also present, which will likely limit updraft intensities. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment expected, modest but sufficient low-level shear will persist through at least early afternoon. This may support occasional low-level updraft rotation, and the threat for a tornado or two. Otherwise, occasional damaging winds may also occur with any robust thunderstorm that can persist. This isolated/marginal severe threat should remain focused along/near the surface front, before waning this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal/isolated tornado threat should continue through this afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia, and middle Tennessee. Isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Southeast... The remnant surface circulation associated with Francine located over AR late this morning is forecast to continue filling/weakening through the day as a weak mid-level trough across the Mid-South moves slowly eastward. Surface observations/analysis indicate a front is draped northwest to southeast from western TN into northern/central AL and southern GA. This boundary may serve as a focus for additional convective development this afternoon, even though the overall system is weakening. Cloud cover remains prevalent across much of this region, which should hinder daytime heating to some extent. Poor mid-level lapse rates are also present, which will likely limit updraft intensities. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment expected, modest but sufficient low-level shear will persist through at least early afternoon. This may support occasional low-level updraft rotation, and the threat for a tornado or two. Otherwise, occasional damaging winds may also occur with any robust thunderstorm that can persist. This isolated/marginal severe threat should remain focused along/near the surface front, before waning this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal/isolated tornado threat should continue through this afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia, and middle Tennessee. Isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Southeast... The remnant surface circulation associated with Francine located over AR late this morning is forecast to continue filling/weakening through the day as a weak mid-level trough across the Mid-South moves slowly eastward. Surface observations/analysis indicate a front is draped northwest to southeast from western TN into northern/central AL and southern GA. This boundary may serve as a focus for additional convective development this afternoon, even though the overall system is weakening. Cloud cover remains prevalent across much of this region, which should hinder daytime heating to some extent. Poor mid-level lapse rates are also present, which will likely limit updraft intensities. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment expected, modest but sufficient low-level shear will persist through at least early afternoon. This may support occasional low-level updraft rotation, and the threat for a tornado or two. Otherwise, occasional damaging winds may also occur with any robust thunderstorm that can persist. This isolated/marginal severe threat should remain focused along/near the surface front, before waning this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal/isolated tornado threat should continue through this afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia, and middle Tennessee. Isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Southeast... The remnant surface circulation associated with Francine located over AR late this morning is forecast to continue filling/weakening through the day as a weak mid-level trough across the Mid-South moves slowly eastward. Surface observations/analysis indicate a front is draped northwest to southeast from western TN into northern/central AL and southern GA. This boundary may serve as a focus for additional convective development this afternoon, even though the overall system is weakening. Cloud cover remains prevalent across much of this region, which should hinder daytime heating to some extent. Poor mid-level lapse rates are also present, which will likely limit updraft intensities. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment expected, modest but sufficient low-level shear will persist through at least early afternoon. This may support occasional low-level updraft rotation, and the threat for a tornado or two. Otherwise, occasional damaging winds may also occur with any robust thunderstorm that can persist. This isolated/marginal severe threat should remain focused along/near the surface front, before waning this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal/isolated tornado threat should continue through this afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia, and middle Tennessee. Isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Southeast... The remnant surface circulation associated with Francine located over AR late this morning is forecast to continue filling/weakening through the day as a weak mid-level trough across the Mid-South moves slowly eastward. Surface observations/analysis indicate a front is draped northwest to southeast from western TN into northern/central AL and southern GA. This boundary may serve as a focus for additional convective development this afternoon, even though the overall system is weakening. Cloud cover remains prevalent across much of this region, which should hinder daytime heating to some extent. Poor mid-level lapse rates are also present, which will likely limit updraft intensities. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment expected, modest but sufficient low-level shear will persist through at least early afternoon. This may support occasional low-level updraft rotation, and the threat for a tornado or two. Otherwise, occasional damaging winds may also occur with any robust thunderstorm that can persist. This isolated/marginal severe threat should remain focused along/near the surface front, before waning this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0245 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal/isolated tornado threat should continue through this afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia, and middle Tennessee. Isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Southeast... The remnant surface circulation associated with Francine located over AR late this morning is forecast to continue filling/weakening through the day as a weak mid-level trough across the Mid-South moves slowly eastward. Surface observations/analysis indicate a front is draped northwest to southeast from western TN into northern/central AL and southern GA. This boundary may serve as a focus for additional convective development this afternoon, even though the overall system is weakening. Cloud cover remains prevalent across much of this region, which should hinder daytime heating to some extent. Poor mid-level lapse rates are also present, which will likely limit updraft intensities. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment expected, modest but sufficient low-level shear will persist through at least early afternoon. This may support occasional low-level updraft rotation, and the threat for a tornado or two. Otherwise, occasional damaging winds may also occur with any robust thunderstorm that can persist. This isolated/marginal severe threat should remain focused along/near the surface front, before waning this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday. ...Discussion... A stagnant blocking pattern will exist over the East on Sunday, while an upper-level trough is expected to dig south-southeastward along the West Coast, reaching northern California Sunday night. The overall potential for severe storms should generally remain limited by weak deep-layer/low-level shear where low-level moisture and buoyancy will persist across the Plains/Upper Midwest and coastal Southeast. A few stronger storms could occur across the north-central High Plains Sunday late afternoon into evening with moderate instability near/east of the surface trough, potentially further influenced by an approaching shortwave trough. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday. ...Discussion... A stagnant blocking pattern will exist over the East on Sunday, while an upper-level trough is expected to dig south-southeastward along the West Coast, reaching northern California Sunday night. The overall potential for severe storms should generally remain limited by weak deep-layer/low-level shear where low-level moisture and buoyancy will persist across the Plains/Upper Midwest and coastal Southeast. A few stronger storms could occur across the north-central High Plains Sunday late afternoon into evening with moderate instability near/east of the surface trough, potentially further influenced by an approaching shortwave trough. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday. ...Discussion... A stagnant blocking pattern will exist over the East on Sunday, while an upper-level trough is expected to dig south-southeastward along the West Coast, reaching northern California Sunday night. The overall potential for severe storms should generally remain limited by weak deep-layer/low-level shear where low-level moisture and buoyancy will persist across the Plains/Upper Midwest and coastal Southeast. A few stronger storms could occur across the north-central High Plains Sunday late afternoon into evening with moderate instability near/east of the surface trough, potentially further influenced by an approaching shortwave trough. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday. ...Discussion... A stagnant blocking pattern will exist over the East on Sunday, while an upper-level trough is expected to dig south-southeastward along the West Coast, reaching northern California Sunday night. The overall potential for severe storms should generally remain limited by weak deep-layer/low-level shear where low-level moisture and buoyancy will persist across the Plains/Upper Midwest and coastal Southeast. A few stronger storms could occur across the north-central High Plains Sunday late afternoon into evening with moderate instability near/east of the surface trough, potentially further influenced by an approaching shortwave trough. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday. ...Discussion... A stagnant blocking pattern will exist over the East on Sunday, while an upper-level trough is expected to dig south-southeastward along the West Coast, reaching northern California Sunday night. The overall potential for severe storms should generally remain limited by weak deep-layer/low-level shear where low-level moisture and buoyancy will persist across the Plains/Upper Midwest and coastal Southeast. A few stronger storms could occur across the north-central High Plains Sunday late afternoon into evening with moderate instability near/east of the surface trough, potentially further influenced by an approaching shortwave trough. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday. ...Discussion... A stagnant blocking pattern will exist over the East on Sunday, while an upper-level trough is expected to dig south-southeastward along the West Coast, reaching northern California Sunday night. The overall potential for severe storms should generally remain limited by weak deep-layer/low-level shear where low-level moisture and buoyancy will persist across the Plains/Upper Midwest and coastal Southeast. A few stronger storms could occur across the north-central High Plains Sunday late afternoon into evening with moderate instability near/east of the surface trough, potentially further influenced by an approaching shortwave trough. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday. ...Discussion... A stagnant blocking pattern will exist over the East on Sunday, while an upper-level trough is expected to dig south-southeastward along the West Coast, reaching northern California Sunday night. The overall potential for severe storms should generally remain limited by weak deep-layer/low-level shear where low-level moisture and buoyancy will persist across the Plains/Upper Midwest and coastal Southeast. A few stronger storms could occur across the north-central High Plains Sunday late afternoon into evening with moderate instability near/east of the surface trough, potentially further influenced by an approaching shortwave trough. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

MD 2066 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE FL PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHEAST AL/SOUTHWEST GA
Mesoscale Discussion 2066 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Areas affected...Parts of the FL Panhandle into southeast AL/southwest GA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131751Z - 131945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Locally damaging wind and perhaps a tornado are possible this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A small thunderstorm cluster has recently become better organized across the FL Panhandle. The KEVX VWP depicts backed (but also relatively weak) low-level flow with modest southwesterly flow aloft, supporting effective shear of 30-35 kt. Modest heating is ongoing downstream of this cluster, with MLCAPE increasing into the 1000-1500 J/kg range. This may help to sustain the ongoing cluster, along with some potential for additional development into southwest GA with time. Locally damaging gusts will be possible, along with some potential for a tornado where surface flow remains backed through the afternoon. ..Dean/Gleason.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE... LAT...LON 31138617 31558524 32018376 31368328 30968342 30228388 29998463 30118551 30318602 30528600 31138617 Read more

MD 2065 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF AL INTO MIDDLE TN
Mesoscale Discussion 2065 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Areas affected...Parts of AL into middle TN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131721Z - 131945Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The threat for locally damaging wind and possibly a tornado may increase into this afternoon. DISCUSSION...A remnant surface low is located over northern AR early this afternoon. An occluded front extends east-northeast of the low into western TN, then extends southeast as a stationary or warm front across parts of northern/central AL into western GA. Farther south, a cold front is moving across MS, with a surface trough/wind shift noted to the east from western AL into southern MS. In the vicinity of these boundaries, convection is gradually increasing from western AL into southern middle TN, and a few cells across northwest AL have exhibited some weak rotation. While low-level flow/shear has gradually decreased as the remnant of Tropical Cyclone Francine has weakened, effective SRH of around 100 m2/s2 and modestly favorable deep-layer shear will continue to favor occasionally organized convection into this afternoon. MLCAPE will increase to near or above 1000 J/kg, with an increase in convective coverage expected with time within a weakly capped environment. A few marginal supercells could evolve with time, and a tornado cannot be ruled out, especially in a zone between the surface trough/wind shift approaching from the west and the effective warm front to the east, where low-level flow will remain locally backed as gradual heating/destabilization continues. Otherwise, locally damaging winds will be possible, especially if any localized clustering of convection can develop with time. ..Dean/Gleason.. 09/13/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG... LAT...LON 32228565 31618689 31888728 32568749 34138797 34948822 35448837 35718835 35898821 36088759 36108707 35658637 33948592 32638572 32228565 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z The combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer with moderate mid-level flow and some downslope flow will lead to some dry and breezy conditions across portions of south-central and southeast Wyoming. An Elevated delineation has been added to cover the fire weather concern in this region. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of midlevel westerly flow will strengthen from the Northwest into the northern Plains, as a large-scale trough begins to amplify over the western CONUS. Associated lee troughing over the northern High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of WY during the afternoon. While this could result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overall threat appears too minimal for highlights at this time. Farther west, breezy southerly surface winds are expected across parts of the Great Basin ahead of the gradually amplifying large-scale trough. However, a modest increase in moisture/RH, and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, should generally limit fire-weather potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more