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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z The combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer with moderate mid-level flow and some downslope flow will lead to some dry and breezy conditions across portions of south-central and southeast Wyoming. An Elevated delineation has been added to cover the fire weather concern in this region. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of midlevel westerly flow will strengthen from the Northwest into the northern Plains, as a large-scale trough begins to amplify over the western CONUS. Associated lee troughing over the northern High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of WY during the afternoon. While this could result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overall threat appears too minimal for highlights at this time. Farther west, breezy southerly surface winds are expected across parts of the Great Basin ahead of the gradually amplifying large-scale trough. However, a modest increase in moisture/RH, and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, should generally limit fire-weather potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z The combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer with moderate mid-level flow and some downslope flow will lead to some dry and breezy conditions across portions of south-central and southeast Wyoming. An Elevated delineation has been added to cover the fire weather concern in this region. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of midlevel westerly flow will strengthen from the Northwest into the northern Plains, as a large-scale trough begins to amplify over the western CONUS. Associated lee troughing over the northern High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of WY during the afternoon. While this could result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overall threat appears too minimal for highlights at this time. Farther west, breezy southerly surface winds are expected across parts of the Great Basin ahead of the gradually amplifying large-scale trough. However, a modest increase in moisture/RH, and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, should generally limit fire-weather potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z The combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer with moderate mid-level flow and some downslope flow will lead to some dry and breezy conditions across portions of south-central and southeast Wyoming. An Elevated delineation has been added to cover the fire weather concern in this region. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of midlevel westerly flow will strengthen from the Northwest into the northern Plains, as a large-scale trough begins to amplify over the western CONUS. Associated lee troughing over the northern High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of WY during the afternoon. While this could result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overall threat appears too minimal for highlights at this time. Farther west, breezy southerly surface winds are expected across parts of the Great Basin ahead of the gradually amplifying large-scale trough. However, a modest increase in moisture/RH, and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, should generally limit fire-weather potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z The combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer with moderate mid-level flow and some downslope flow will lead to some dry and breezy conditions across portions of south-central and southeast Wyoming. An Elevated delineation has been added to cover the fire weather concern in this region. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of midlevel westerly flow will strengthen from the Northwest into the northern Plains, as a large-scale trough begins to amplify over the western CONUS. Associated lee troughing over the northern High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of WY during the afternoon. While this could result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overall threat appears too minimal for highlights at this time. Farther west, breezy southerly surface winds are expected across parts of the Great Basin ahead of the gradually amplifying large-scale trough. However, a modest increase in moisture/RH, and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, should generally limit fire-weather potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z The combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer with moderate mid-level flow and some downslope flow will lead to some dry and breezy conditions across portions of south-central and southeast Wyoming. An Elevated delineation has been added to cover the fire weather concern in this region. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of midlevel westerly flow will strengthen from the Northwest into the northern Plains, as a large-scale trough begins to amplify over the western CONUS. Associated lee troughing over the northern High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of WY during the afternoon. While this could result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overall threat appears too minimal for highlights at this time. Farther west, breezy southerly surface winds are expected across parts of the Great Basin ahead of the gradually amplifying large-scale trough. However, a modest increase in moisture/RH, and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, should generally limit fire-weather potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0218 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z The combination of a deeply mixed boundary layer with moderate mid-level flow and some downslope flow will lead to some dry and breezy conditions across portions of south-central and southeast Wyoming. An Elevated delineation has been added to cover the fire weather concern in this region. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A belt of midlevel westerly flow will strengthen from the Northwest into the northern Plains, as a large-scale trough begins to amplify over the western CONUS. Associated lee troughing over the northern High Plains will favor dry/breezy conditions across portions of WY during the afternoon. While this could result in locally elevated fire-weather conditions, the overall threat appears too minimal for highlights at this time. Farther west, breezy southerly surface winds are expected across parts of the Great Basin ahead of the gradually amplifying large-scale trough. However, a modest increase in moisture/RH, and a lack of stronger sustained surface winds, should generally limit fire-weather potential. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131742
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 13 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ileana, located southeast of the southern tip of the
Baja California Peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 17:42:01 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 15:28:58 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 131741 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 1100 AM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 ...CENTER OF ILEANA NEARING THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 109.3W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to Loreto * Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM MST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 22.4 North, longitude 109.3 West. Ileana is moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slower north-northwestward to northward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Ileana is expected to move across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula this afternoon and over the southern and central Gulf of California this weekend. Recently-received satellite wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before Ileana reaches the Baja California peninsula. Weakening is expected over the weekend, and Ileana is forecast to dissipate by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) to the east of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Through this weekend, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce rainfall of 4 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Tropical Storm Ileana may result between 6 to 8 inches with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the warning area during the next few hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...CENTER OF ILEANA NEARING THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS... As of 11:00 AM MST Fri Sep 13 the center of Ileana was located near 22.4, -109.3 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...North-Central High Plains including parts of NE/SD... A north/south-oriented boundary will be in place Saturday afternoon and evening across the north-central High Plains, spanning northeast Colorado and western Nebraska into the western Dakotas. Influenced by stronger westerlies centered over the Pacific Northwest, semi-cool mid-level temperatures and relatively steep lapse rates will coincide with 50s F surface dewpoints near/east of the surface trough/boundary, leading to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE by mid-afternoon. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid/late afternoon. Effective shear of 25-30 kt could support some multicellular storm sustenance. A few of these storms could produce marginally severe hail and/or strong wind gusts, although some spatial/intensity details very in guidance. Subsequent outlooks into the Day 1 time frame will reevaluate for the potential introduction of severe probabilities. ...Southeast... The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine will continue to weaken and remain nearly stationary across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. At least modest buoyancy should be displaced well to its southeast across Florida and the coastal Southeast Saturday afternoon, well away from the Tennessee Valley. The overall potential for organized severe storms appears low. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...North-Central High Plains including parts of NE/SD... A north/south-oriented boundary will be in place Saturday afternoon and evening across the north-central High Plains, spanning northeast Colorado and western Nebraska into the western Dakotas. Influenced by stronger westerlies centered over the Pacific Northwest, semi-cool mid-level temperatures and relatively steep lapse rates will coincide with 50s F surface dewpoints near/east of the surface trough/boundary, leading to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE by mid-afternoon. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid/late afternoon. Effective shear of 25-30 kt could support some multicellular storm sustenance. A few of these storms could produce marginally severe hail and/or strong wind gusts, although some spatial/intensity details very in guidance. Subsequent outlooks into the Day 1 time frame will reevaluate for the potential introduction of severe probabilities. ...Southeast... The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine will continue to weaken and remain nearly stationary across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. At least modest buoyancy should be displaced well to its southeast across Florida and the coastal Southeast Saturday afternoon, well away from the Tennessee Valley. The overall potential for organized severe storms appears low. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...North-Central High Plains including parts of NE/SD... A north/south-oriented boundary will be in place Saturday afternoon and evening across the north-central High Plains, spanning northeast Colorado and western Nebraska into the western Dakotas. Influenced by stronger westerlies centered over the Pacific Northwest, semi-cool mid-level temperatures and relatively steep lapse rates will coincide with 50s F surface dewpoints near/east of the surface trough/boundary, leading to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE by mid-afternoon. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid/late afternoon. Effective shear of 25-30 kt could support some multicellular storm sustenance. A few of these storms could produce marginally severe hail and/or strong wind gusts, although some spatial/intensity details very in guidance. Subsequent outlooks into the Day 1 time frame will reevaluate for the potential introduction of severe probabilities. ...Southeast... The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine will continue to weaken and remain nearly stationary across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. At least modest buoyancy should be displaced well to its southeast across Florida and the coastal Southeast Saturday afternoon, well away from the Tennessee Valley. The overall potential for organized severe storms appears low. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...North-Central High Plains including parts of NE/SD... A north/south-oriented boundary will be in place Saturday afternoon and evening across the north-central High Plains, spanning northeast Colorado and western Nebraska into the western Dakotas. Influenced by stronger westerlies centered over the Pacific Northwest, semi-cool mid-level temperatures and relatively steep lapse rates will coincide with 50s F surface dewpoints near/east of the surface trough/boundary, leading to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE by mid-afternoon. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid/late afternoon. Effective shear of 25-30 kt could support some multicellular storm sustenance. A few of these storms could produce marginally severe hail and/or strong wind gusts, although some spatial/intensity details very in guidance. Subsequent outlooks into the Day 1 time frame will reevaluate for the potential introduction of severe probabilities. ...Southeast... The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine will continue to weaken and remain nearly stationary across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. At least modest buoyancy should be displaced well to its southeast across Florida and the coastal Southeast Saturday afternoon, well away from the Tennessee Valley. The overall potential for organized severe storms appears low. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...North-Central High Plains including parts of NE/SD... A north/south-oriented boundary will be in place Saturday afternoon and evening across the north-central High Plains, spanning northeast Colorado and western Nebraska into the western Dakotas. Influenced by stronger westerlies centered over the Pacific Northwest, semi-cool mid-level temperatures and relatively steep lapse rates will coincide with 50s F surface dewpoints near/east of the surface trough/boundary, leading to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE by mid-afternoon. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid/late afternoon. Effective shear of 25-30 kt could support some multicellular storm sustenance. A few of these storms could produce marginally severe hail and/or strong wind gusts, although some spatial/intensity details very in guidance. Subsequent outlooks into the Day 1 time frame will reevaluate for the potential introduction of severe probabilities. ...Southeast... The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine will continue to weaken and remain nearly stationary across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. At least modest buoyancy should be displaced well to its southeast across Florida and the coastal Southeast Saturday afternoon, well away from the Tennessee Valley. The overall potential for organized severe storms appears low. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...North-Central High Plains including parts of NE/SD... A north/south-oriented boundary will be in place Saturday afternoon and evening across the north-central High Plains, spanning northeast Colorado and western Nebraska into the western Dakotas. Influenced by stronger westerlies centered over the Pacific Northwest, semi-cool mid-level temperatures and relatively steep lapse rates will coincide with 50s F surface dewpoints near/east of the surface trough/boundary, leading to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE by mid-afternoon. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid/late afternoon. Effective shear of 25-30 kt could support some multicellular storm sustenance. A few of these storms could produce marginally severe hail and/or strong wind gusts, although some spatial/intensity details very in guidance. Subsequent outlooks into the Day 1 time frame will reevaluate for the potential introduction of severe probabilities. ...Southeast... The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine will continue to weaken and remain nearly stationary across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. At least modest buoyancy should be displaced well to its southeast across Florida and the coastal Southeast Saturday afternoon, well away from the Tennessee Valley. The overall potential for organized severe storms appears low. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms are not forecast on Saturday. ...North-Central High Plains including parts of NE/SD... A north/south-oriented boundary will be in place Saturday afternoon and evening across the north-central High Plains, spanning northeast Colorado and western Nebraska into the western Dakotas. Influenced by stronger westerlies centered over the Pacific Northwest, semi-cool mid-level temperatures and relatively steep lapse rates will coincide with 50s F surface dewpoints near/east of the surface trough/boundary, leading to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE by mid-afternoon. At least widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop by mid/late afternoon. Effective shear of 25-30 kt could support some multicellular storm sustenance. A few of these storms could produce marginally severe hail and/or strong wind gusts, although some spatial/intensity details very in guidance. Subsequent outlooks into the Day 1 time frame will reevaluate for the potential introduction of severe probabilities. ...Southeast... The remnants of Post-Tropical Cyclone Francine will continue to weaken and remain nearly stationary across the Lower Mississippi Valley on Saturday. At least modest buoyancy should be displaced well to its southeast across Florida and the coastal Southeast Saturday afternoon, well away from the Tennessee Valley. The overall potential for organized severe storms appears low. ..Guyer.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough over the West will deamplify, though moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the Rockies will maintain a lee trough/dryline along the central/southern High Plains. Behind the dryline over northeastern NM into the TX Panhandle, breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will develop in response to a weak lee cyclone over the TX/OK Panhandles. These winds will overlap a hot/dry boundary layer during the afternoon, potentially yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough over the West will deamplify, though moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the Rockies will maintain a lee trough/dryline along the central/southern High Plains. Behind the dryline over northeastern NM into the TX Panhandle, breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will develop in response to a weak lee cyclone over the TX/OK Panhandles. These winds will overlap a hot/dry boundary layer during the afternoon, potentially yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough over the West will deamplify, though moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the Rockies will maintain a lee trough/dryline along the central/southern High Plains. Behind the dryline over northeastern NM into the TX Panhandle, breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will develop in response to a weak lee cyclone over the TX/OK Panhandles. These winds will overlap a hot/dry boundary layer during the afternoon, potentially yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more