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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis... Persistent onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft will once again pose a risk of thunderstorms over coastal WA/OR and northern CA through tonight. Thunderstorms are also possible this afternoon and evening farther inland into parts of eastern OR and ID as a strong upper trough and associated mid level jet track into the region. Weak instability is expected to preclude organized severe storms. ..Hart/Supinie.. 11/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis... Persistent onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft will once again pose a risk of thunderstorms over coastal WA/OR and northern CA through tonight. Thunderstorms are also possible this afternoon and evening farther inland into parts of eastern OR and ID as a strong upper trough and associated mid level jet track into the region. Weak instability is expected to preclude organized severe storms. ..Hart/Supinie.. 11/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis... Persistent onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft will once again pose a risk of thunderstorms over coastal WA/OR and northern CA through tonight. Thunderstorms are also possible this afternoon and evening farther inland into parts of eastern OR and ID as a strong upper trough and associated mid level jet track into the region. Weak instability is expected to preclude organized severe storms. ..Hart/Supinie.. 11/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis... Persistent onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft will once again pose a risk of thunderstorms over coastal WA/OR and northern CA through tonight. Thunderstorms are also possible this afternoon and evening farther inland into parts of eastern OR and ID as a strong upper trough and associated mid level jet track into the region. Weak instability is expected to preclude organized severe storms. ..Hart/Supinie.. 11/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1024 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 231630Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis... Persistent onshore flow and cold temperatures aloft will once again pose a risk of thunderstorms over coastal WA/OR and northern CA through tonight. Thunderstorms are also possible this afternoon and evening farther inland into parts of eastern OR and ID as a strong upper trough and associated mid level jet track into the region. Weak instability is expected to preclude organized severe storms. ..Hart/Supinie.. 11/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, the presence of a cyclone near the coastal Northeast, and progressive synoptic ridging moving eastward over the central CONUS, should contribute to keeping most of the lower 48 states too dry and/or stable in low/middle levels for thunderstorms. A substantial synoptic-scale trough is apparent in moisture-channel imagery from north-central BC south-southwestward, offshore from the Pacific Northwest and CA. Shortwave troughs and vorticity lobes will continue to eject inland within southwest flow, across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, as a cutoff cyclone forms offshore from Vancouver Island and retrogrades southwestward. One of those shortwave perturbations is evident from central OR to northern CA, and will destabilize a marginally moist low/middle- level profile enough to support isolated thunderstorms as far inland today as portions of MT. This feature should develop a small, closed cyclone overnight near the southern part of the AB/SK border, while a trailing perturbation crosses northern CA and the northern Great Basin. Ahead of that feature, and beneath cold midlevel temperatures closer to the cyclone core, isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the Pacific Coast, from northwestern CA to the Olympic Peninsula. The greatest buoyancy and deepest convective towers accessing the marine layer should remain offshore, though strong gusts or small hail may accompany the strongest near-shore cells inland a short distance. Severe potential appears too isolated and conditional to warrant an outlook area. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 11/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, the presence of a cyclone near the coastal Northeast, and progressive synoptic ridging moving eastward over the central CONUS, should contribute to keeping most of the lower 48 states too dry and/or stable in low/middle levels for thunderstorms. A substantial synoptic-scale trough is apparent in moisture-channel imagery from north-central BC south-southwestward, offshore from the Pacific Northwest and CA. Shortwave troughs and vorticity lobes will continue to eject inland within southwest flow, across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, as a cutoff cyclone forms offshore from Vancouver Island and retrogrades southwestward. One of those shortwave perturbations is evident from central OR to northern CA, and will destabilize a marginally moist low/middle- level profile enough to support isolated thunderstorms as far inland today as portions of MT. This feature should develop a small, closed cyclone overnight near the southern part of the AB/SK border, while a trailing perturbation crosses northern CA and the northern Great Basin. Ahead of that feature, and beneath cold midlevel temperatures closer to the cyclone core, isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the Pacific Coast, from northwestern CA to the Olympic Peninsula. The greatest buoyancy and deepest convective towers accessing the marine layer should remain offshore, though strong gusts or small hail may accompany the strongest near-shore cells inland a short distance. Severe potential appears too isolated and conditional to warrant an outlook area. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 11/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, the presence of a cyclone near the coastal Northeast, and progressive synoptic ridging moving eastward over the central CONUS, should contribute to keeping most of the lower 48 states too dry and/or stable in low/middle levels for thunderstorms. A substantial synoptic-scale trough is apparent in moisture-channel imagery from north-central BC south-southwestward, offshore from the Pacific Northwest and CA. Shortwave troughs and vorticity lobes will continue to eject inland within southwest flow, across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, as a cutoff cyclone forms offshore from Vancouver Island and retrogrades southwestward. One of those shortwave perturbations is evident from central OR to northern CA, and will destabilize a marginally moist low/middle- level profile enough to support isolated thunderstorms as far inland today as portions of MT. This feature should develop a small, closed cyclone overnight near the southern part of the AB/SK border, while a trailing perturbation crosses northern CA and the northern Great Basin. Ahead of that feature, and beneath cold midlevel temperatures closer to the cyclone core, isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the Pacific Coast, from northwestern CA to the Olympic Peninsula. The greatest buoyancy and deepest convective towers accessing the marine layer should remain offshore, though strong gusts or small hail may accompany the strongest near-shore cells inland a short distance. Severe potential appears too isolated and conditional to warrant an outlook area. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 11/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, the presence of a cyclone near the coastal Northeast, and progressive synoptic ridging moving eastward over the central CONUS, should contribute to keeping most of the lower 48 states too dry and/or stable in low/middle levels for thunderstorms. A substantial synoptic-scale trough is apparent in moisture-channel imagery from north-central BC south-southwestward, offshore from the Pacific Northwest and CA. Shortwave troughs and vorticity lobes will continue to eject inland within southwest flow, across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, as a cutoff cyclone forms offshore from Vancouver Island and retrogrades southwestward. One of those shortwave perturbations is evident from central OR to northern CA, and will destabilize a marginally moist low/middle- level profile enough to support isolated thunderstorms as far inland today as portions of MT. This feature should develop a small, closed cyclone overnight near the southern part of the AB/SK border, while a trailing perturbation crosses northern CA and the northern Great Basin. Ahead of that feature, and beneath cold midlevel temperatures closer to the cyclone core, isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the Pacific Coast, from northwestern CA to the Olympic Peninsula. The greatest buoyancy and deepest convective towers accessing the marine layer should remain offshore, though strong gusts or small hail may accompany the strongest near-shore cells inland a short distance. Severe potential appears too isolated and conditional to warrant an outlook area. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 11/23/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0641 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 231300Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, the presence of a cyclone near the coastal Northeast, and progressive synoptic ridging moving eastward over the central CONUS, should contribute to keeping most of the lower 48 states too dry and/or stable in low/middle levels for thunderstorms. A substantial synoptic-scale trough is apparent in moisture-channel imagery from north-central BC south-southwestward, offshore from the Pacific Northwest and CA. Shortwave troughs and vorticity lobes will continue to eject inland within southwest flow, across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies, as a cutoff cyclone forms offshore from Vancouver Island and retrogrades southwestward. One of those shortwave perturbations is evident from central OR to northern CA, and will destabilize a marginally moist low/middle- level profile enough to support isolated thunderstorms as far inland today as portions of MT. This feature should develop a small, closed cyclone overnight near the southern part of the AB/SK border, while a trailing perturbation crosses northern CA and the northern Great Basin. Ahead of that feature, and beneath cold midlevel temperatures closer to the cyclone core, isolated thunderstorms will be possible near the Pacific Coast, from northwestern CA to the Olympic Peninsula. The greatest buoyancy and deepest convective towers accessing the marine layer should remain offshore, though strong gusts or small hail may accompany the strongest near-shore cells inland a short distance. Severe potential appears too isolated and conditional to warrant an outlook area. ..Edwards/Leitman.. 11/23/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Tue/D4, an upper trough will pivot northeastward from the Great Lakes into southern Quebec, with temporary zonal flow across much of the CONUS. Moisture along the central Gulf Coast will be quickly shunted offshore as a cold front pushes south. Models are in good agreement depicting another shortwave trough over the central Rockies on Wed/D5, with some amplification possible into the southern Plains Wed night. This trough will maintain a positive tilt on Thu/D6 with a 65-75 kt 500 mb speed max extending from TX to the TN/OH Valleys by 00Z Fri/D7. During the day on Wed/D5, low pressure is forecast to develop over OK, and will translate east/northeast into KY/TN Wed night ahead of a cold front. South of this front, a relatively large area of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will develop, especially Wed night, from eastern TX across LA and MS. Given the positive tilt of the upper trough, winds around 850 mb will be out of the west/southwest, reducing low-level shear somewhat. In addition, speeds are not expected to be particularly strong. Still, thunderstorms will likely develop late Wed/D5 over the lower MS and TN Valleys near the cold front. Greater thunderstorm coverage is expected on Thu/D6 over much of the Southeast and ahead of a strengthening cold front. Even with veered low-level winds, the strong deep-layer shear and focus along the front may provide a risk of severe/wind storms. This area will be monitored for upgrades in later outlooks as predictability increases. From Fri/D7 into Sat/D8, a secondary speed max moving out of the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes will likely phase with the southern trough, eventually enveloping the eastern CONUS, and reinforcing stable air behind the cold front. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Tue/D4, an upper trough will pivot northeastward from the Great Lakes into southern Quebec, with temporary zonal flow across much of the CONUS. Moisture along the central Gulf Coast will be quickly shunted offshore as a cold front pushes south. Models are in good agreement depicting another shortwave trough over the central Rockies on Wed/D5, with some amplification possible into the southern Plains Wed night. This trough will maintain a positive tilt on Thu/D6 with a 65-75 kt 500 mb speed max extending from TX to the TN/OH Valleys by 00Z Fri/D7. During the day on Wed/D5, low pressure is forecast to develop over OK, and will translate east/northeast into KY/TN Wed night ahead of a cold front. South of this front, a relatively large area of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will develop, especially Wed night, from eastern TX across LA and MS. Given the positive tilt of the upper trough, winds around 850 mb will be out of the west/southwest, reducing low-level shear somewhat. In addition, speeds are not expected to be particularly strong. Still, thunderstorms will likely develop late Wed/D5 over the lower MS and TN Valleys near the cold front. Greater thunderstorm coverage is expected on Thu/D6 over much of the Southeast and ahead of a strengthening cold front. Even with veered low-level winds, the strong deep-layer shear and focus along the front may provide a risk of severe/wind storms. This area will be monitored for upgrades in later outlooks as predictability increases. From Fri/D7 into Sat/D8, a secondary speed max moving out of the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes will likely phase with the southern trough, eventually enveloping the eastern CONUS, and reinforcing stable air behind the cold front. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Tue/D4, an upper trough will pivot northeastward from the Great Lakes into southern Quebec, with temporary zonal flow across much of the CONUS. Moisture along the central Gulf Coast will be quickly shunted offshore as a cold front pushes south. Models are in good agreement depicting another shortwave trough over the central Rockies on Wed/D5, with some amplification possible into the southern Plains Wed night. This trough will maintain a positive tilt on Thu/D6 with a 65-75 kt 500 mb speed max extending from TX to the TN/OH Valleys by 00Z Fri/D7. During the day on Wed/D5, low pressure is forecast to develop over OK, and will translate east/northeast into KY/TN Wed night ahead of a cold front. South of this front, a relatively large area of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will develop, especially Wed night, from eastern TX across LA and MS. Given the positive tilt of the upper trough, winds around 850 mb will be out of the west/southwest, reducing low-level shear somewhat. In addition, speeds are not expected to be particularly strong. Still, thunderstorms will likely develop late Wed/D5 over the lower MS and TN Valleys near the cold front. Greater thunderstorm coverage is expected on Thu/D6 over much of the Southeast and ahead of a strengthening cold front. Even with veered low-level winds, the strong deep-layer shear and focus along the front may provide a risk of severe/wind storms. This area will be monitored for upgrades in later outlooks as predictability increases. From Fri/D7 into Sat/D8, a secondary speed max moving out of the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes will likely phase with the southern trough, eventually enveloping the eastern CONUS, and reinforcing stable air behind the cold front. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Tue/D4, an upper trough will pivot northeastward from the Great Lakes into southern Quebec, with temporary zonal flow across much of the CONUS. Moisture along the central Gulf Coast will be quickly shunted offshore as a cold front pushes south. Models are in good agreement depicting another shortwave trough over the central Rockies on Wed/D5, with some amplification possible into the southern Plains Wed night. This trough will maintain a positive tilt on Thu/D6 with a 65-75 kt 500 mb speed max extending from TX to the TN/OH Valleys by 00Z Fri/D7. During the day on Wed/D5, low pressure is forecast to develop over OK, and will translate east/northeast into KY/TN Wed night ahead of a cold front. South of this front, a relatively large area of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will develop, especially Wed night, from eastern TX across LA and MS. Given the positive tilt of the upper trough, winds around 850 mb will be out of the west/southwest, reducing low-level shear somewhat. In addition, speeds are not expected to be particularly strong. Still, thunderstorms will likely develop late Wed/D5 over the lower MS and TN Valleys near the cold front. Greater thunderstorm coverage is expected on Thu/D6 over much of the Southeast and ahead of a strengthening cold front. Even with veered low-level winds, the strong deep-layer shear and focus along the front may provide a risk of severe/wind storms. This area will be monitored for upgrades in later outlooks as predictability increases. From Fri/D7 into Sat/D8, a secondary speed max moving out of the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes will likely phase with the southern trough, eventually enveloping the eastern CONUS, and reinforcing stable air behind the cold front. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 261200Z - 011200Z ...DISCUSSION... On Tue/D4, an upper trough will pivot northeastward from the Great Lakes into southern Quebec, with temporary zonal flow across much of the CONUS. Moisture along the central Gulf Coast will be quickly shunted offshore as a cold front pushes south. Models are in good agreement depicting another shortwave trough over the central Rockies on Wed/D5, with some amplification possible into the southern Plains Wed night. This trough will maintain a positive tilt on Thu/D6 with a 65-75 kt 500 mb speed max extending from TX to the TN/OH Valleys by 00Z Fri/D7. During the day on Wed/D5, low pressure is forecast to develop over OK, and will translate east/northeast into KY/TN Wed night ahead of a cold front. South of this front, a relatively large area of mid to upper 60s F dewpoints will develop, especially Wed night, from eastern TX across LA and MS. Given the positive tilt of the upper trough, winds around 850 mb will be out of the west/southwest, reducing low-level shear somewhat. In addition, speeds are not expected to be particularly strong. Still, thunderstorms will likely develop late Wed/D5 over the lower MS and TN Valleys near the cold front. Greater thunderstorm coverage is expected on Thu/D6 over much of the Southeast and ahead of a strengthening cold front. Even with veered low-level winds, the strong deep-layer shear and focus along the front may provide a risk of severe/wind storms. This area will be monitored for upgrades in later outlooks as predictability increases. From Fri/D7 into Sat/D8, a secondary speed max moving out of the upper MS Valley/Great Lakes will likely phase with the southern trough, eventually enveloping the eastern CONUS, and reinforcing stable air behind the cold front. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorms may occur late Monday mainly from the Sabine Valley into central Mississippi. ...Synopsis... On Monday, an upper low will be located over northern MN, within a broader cyclonic flow regime stretching from the northern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a broad fetch of strong westerlies will extend westward toward the West Coast. As a leading shortwave trough moves across the Midwestern states and OH Valley, a surface low will move from Lower MI into Southwest Ontario, with a cold front extending southwestward toward the Lower MS and Sabine Valleys by 00Z. Areas of heating will lead to modest steepening of low-level lapse rates from southeast TX into MS ahead of the front, also within a moist plume with low to mid 60s F dewpoints. Lift along this front may be enough for sporadic weak thunderstorms, with the primary mitigating factor weak instability and poor lapse rates aloft. Therefore, despite strengthening deep-layer shear, severe weather is not forecast. ..Jewell.. 11/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorms may occur late Monday mainly from the Sabine Valley into central Mississippi. ...Synopsis... On Monday, an upper low will be located over northern MN, within a broader cyclonic flow regime stretching from the northern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a broad fetch of strong westerlies will extend westward toward the West Coast. As a leading shortwave trough moves across the Midwestern states and OH Valley, a surface low will move from Lower MI into Southwest Ontario, with a cold front extending southwestward toward the Lower MS and Sabine Valleys by 00Z. Areas of heating will lead to modest steepening of low-level lapse rates from southeast TX into MS ahead of the front, also within a moist plume with low to mid 60s F dewpoints. Lift along this front may be enough for sporadic weak thunderstorms, with the primary mitigating factor weak instability and poor lapse rates aloft. Therefore, despite strengthening deep-layer shear, severe weather is not forecast. ..Jewell.. 11/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorms may occur late Monday mainly from the Sabine Valley into central Mississippi. ...Synopsis... On Monday, an upper low will be located over northern MN, within a broader cyclonic flow regime stretching from the northern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a broad fetch of strong westerlies will extend westward toward the West Coast. As a leading shortwave trough moves across the Midwestern states and OH Valley, a surface low will move from Lower MI into Southwest Ontario, with a cold front extending southwestward toward the Lower MS and Sabine Valleys by 00Z. Areas of heating will lead to modest steepening of low-level lapse rates from southeast TX into MS ahead of the front, also within a moist plume with low to mid 60s F dewpoints. Lift along this front may be enough for sporadic weak thunderstorms, with the primary mitigating factor weak instability and poor lapse rates aloft. Therefore, despite strengthening deep-layer shear, severe weather is not forecast. ..Jewell.. 11/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorms may occur late Monday mainly from the Sabine Valley into central Mississippi. ...Synopsis... On Monday, an upper low will be located over northern MN, within a broader cyclonic flow regime stretching from the northern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a broad fetch of strong westerlies will extend westward toward the West Coast. As a leading shortwave trough moves across the Midwestern states and OH Valley, a surface low will move from Lower MI into Southwest Ontario, with a cold front extending southwestward toward the Lower MS and Sabine Valleys by 00Z. Areas of heating will lead to modest steepening of low-level lapse rates from southeast TX into MS ahead of the front, also within a moist plume with low to mid 60s F dewpoints. Lift along this front may be enough for sporadic weak thunderstorms, with the primary mitigating factor weak instability and poor lapse rates aloft. Therefore, despite strengthening deep-layer shear, severe weather is not forecast. ..Jewell.. 11/23/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0223 AM CST Sat Nov 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated weak thunderstorms may occur late Monday mainly from the Sabine Valley into central Mississippi. ...Synopsis... On Monday, an upper low will be located over northern MN, within a broader cyclonic flow regime stretching from the northern Plains to the Upper Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a broad fetch of strong westerlies will extend westward toward the West Coast. As a leading shortwave trough moves across the Midwestern states and OH Valley, a surface low will move from Lower MI into Southwest Ontario, with a cold front extending southwestward toward the Lower MS and Sabine Valleys by 00Z. Areas of heating will lead to modest steepening of low-level lapse rates from southeast TX into MS ahead of the front, also within a moist plume with low to mid 60s F dewpoints. Lift along this front may be enough for sporadic weak thunderstorms, with the primary mitigating factor weak instability and poor lapse rates aloft. Therefore, despite strengthening deep-layer shear, severe weather is not forecast. ..Jewell.. 11/23/2024 Read more