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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible today from northern Florida to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe wind gusts (some significant) are expected across eastern Montana into western North Dakota this afternoon through early/mid-evening. ...Northern Great Plains including eastern MT/western ND... Have upgraded portions of eastern Montana and western North Dakota for a heightened/focused potential for severe storms capable of large hail and potentially significant-caliber severe wind gusts later this afternoon through around mid-evening. Strong-severe thunderstorms are expected, along and behind the front, as early as early/mid-afternoon, with the most probable severe potential arising from activity moving north-northeastward from northern Wyoming and far southern Montana. High-based supercells and multicells are possible, offering large hail and severe wind gusts. These storms may aggregate and grow upscale into one or two bowing clusters, racing north-northeastward accompanied by a swath of better-organized, potentially significant (65+ kt) gust potential. This scenario will be supported by trough-related cooling mid-level temperatures and steep low/mid-level rates atop a modestly moist boundary layer, as the exit region of a strong upper-level jet overspreads the region. MLCAPE of 500-1200 J/kg and 45-55 kt effective-shear magnitudes will support the severe potential including fast-moving and relatively long-lived storms into western North Dakota. The near-surface airmass over the central Dakotas should stabilize with time and eastward extent tonight, limiting duration and eastward shift of the threat. ...Southeast... Current Tropical Depression Francine is forecast to continue moving generally northward over Mississippi, and to lose definition as it interacts more closely with the mid/upper-level low. Associated deep-layer winds will continue to weaken, but low-level shear will remain favorable through most of the day, well to the east-southeast of its center. A destabilizing airmass along and south of the warm/marine front will support a continued, slow inland shift of supercell potential amid enlarged hodographs. The favorable environment will be bounded on the west by a dry slot and veering low-level flow, on the northeast by more stable air in heavy precip north of the front, and on the south by a gradual weakening of low-level winds and shear as the cyclone center pulls away and fills. In the favorable corridor, where inflow parcels are surface-based, expect effective SRH in the 200-500 m2/s2 range, very rich moisture, low LCL, and weak MLCINH. In the shorter term, a tornado threat may persist this afternoon across northern Florida, while potentially increasing later this afternoon through early evening near the warm front across southern into central Alabama. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible today from northern Florida to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe wind gusts (some significant) are expected across eastern Montana into western North Dakota this afternoon through early/mid-evening. ...Northern Great Plains including eastern MT/western ND... Have upgraded portions of eastern Montana and western North Dakota for a heightened/focused potential for severe storms capable of large hail and potentially significant-caliber severe wind gusts later this afternoon through around mid-evening. Strong-severe thunderstorms are expected, along and behind the front, as early as early/mid-afternoon, with the most probable severe potential arising from activity moving north-northeastward from northern Wyoming and far southern Montana. High-based supercells and multicells are possible, offering large hail and severe wind gusts. These storms may aggregate and grow upscale into one or two bowing clusters, racing north-northeastward accompanied by a swath of better-organized, potentially significant (65+ kt) gust potential. This scenario will be supported by trough-related cooling mid-level temperatures and steep low/mid-level rates atop a modestly moist boundary layer, as the exit region of a strong upper-level jet overspreads the region. MLCAPE of 500-1200 J/kg and 45-55 kt effective-shear magnitudes will support the severe potential including fast-moving and relatively long-lived storms into western North Dakota. The near-surface airmass over the central Dakotas should stabilize with time and eastward extent tonight, limiting duration and eastward shift of the threat. ...Southeast... Current Tropical Depression Francine is forecast to continue moving generally northward over Mississippi, and to lose definition as it interacts more closely with the mid/upper-level low. Associated deep-layer winds will continue to weaken, but low-level shear will remain favorable through most of the day, well to the east-southeast of its center. A destabilizing airmass along and south of the warm/marine front will support a continued, slow inland shift of supercell potential amid enlarged hodographs. The favorable environment will be bounded on the west by a dry slot and veering low-level flow, on the northeast by more stable air in heavy precip north of the front, and on the south by a gradual weakening of low-level winds and shear as the cyclone center pulls away and fills. In the favorable corridor, where inflow parcels are surface-based, expect effective SRH in the 200-500 m2/s2 range, very rich moisture, low LCL, and weak MLCINH. In the shorter term, a tornado threat may persist this afternoon across northern Florida, while potentially increasing later this afternoon through early evening near the warm front across southern into central Alabama. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible today from northern Florida to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe wind gusts (some significant) are expected across eastern Montana into western North Dakota this afternoon through early/mid-evening. ...Northern Great Plains including eastern MT/western ND... Have upgraded portions of eastern Montana and western North Dakota for a heightened/focused potential for severe storms capable of large hail and potentially significant-caliber severe wind gusts later this afternoon through around mid-evening. Strong-severe thunderstorms are expected, along and behind the front, as early as early/mid-afternoon, with the most probable severe potential arising from activity moving north-northeastward from northern Wyoming and far southern Montana. High-based supercells and multicells are possible, offering large hail and severe wind gusts. These storms may aggregate and grow upscale into one or two bowing clusters, racing north-northeastward accompanied by a swath of better-organized, potentially significant (65+ kt) gust potential. This scenario will be supported by trough-related cooling mid-level temperatures and steep low/mid-level rates atop a modestly moist boundary layer, as the exit region of a strong upper-level jet overspreads the region. MLCAPE of 500-1200 J/kg and 45-55 kt effective-shear magnitudes will support the severe potential including fast-moving and relatively long-lived storms into western North Dakota. The near-surface airmass over the central Dakotas should stabilize with time and eastward extent tonight, limiting duration and eastward shift of the threat. ...Southeast... Current Tropical Depression Francine is forecast to continue moving generally northward over Mississippi, and to lose definition as it interacts more closely with the mid/upper-level low. Associated deep-layer winds will continue to weaken, but low-level shear will remain favorable through most of the day, well to the east-southeast of its center. A destabilizing airmass along and south of the warm/marine front will support a continued, slow inland shift of supercell potential amid enlarged hodographs. The favorable environment will be bounded on the west by a dry slot and veering low-level flow, on the northeast by more stable air in heavy precip north of the front, and on the south by a gradual weakening of low-level winds and shear as the cyclone center pulls away and fills. In the favorable corridor, where inflow parcels are surface-based, expect effective SRH in the 200-500 m2/s2 range, very rich moisture, low LCL, and weak MLCINH. In the shorter term, a tornado threat may persist this afternoon across northern Florida, while potentially increasing later this afternoon through early evening near the warm front across southern into central Alabama. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible today from northern Florida to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe wind gusts (some significant) are expected across eastern Montana into western North Dakota this afternoon through early/mid-evening. ...Northern Great Plains including eastern MT/western ND... Have upgraded portions of eastern Montana and western North Dakota for a heightened/focused potential for severe storms capable of large hail and potentially significant-caliber severe wind gusts later this afternoon through around mid-evening. Strong-severe thunderstorms are expected, along and behind the front, as early as early/mid-afternoon, with the most probable severe potential arising from activity moving north-northeastward from northern Wyoming and far southern Montana. High-based supercells and multicells are possible, offering large hail and severe wind gusts. These storms may aggregate and grow upscale into one or two bowing clusters, racing north-northeastward accompanied by a swath of better-organized, potentially significant (65+ kt) gust potential. This scenario will be supported by trough-related cooling mid-level temperatures and steep low/mid-level rates atop a modestly moist boundary layer, as the exit region of a strong upper-level jet overspreads the region. MLCAPE of 500-1200 J/kg and 45-55 kt effective-shear magnitudes will support the severe potential including fast-moving and relatively long-lived storms into western North Dakota. The near-surface airmass over the central Dakotas should stabilize with time and eastward extent tonight, limiting duration and eastward shift of the threat. ...Southeast... Current Tropical Depression Francine is forecast to continue moving generally northward over Mississippi, and to lose definition as it interacts more closely with the mid/upper-level low. Associated deep-layer winds will continue to weaken, but low-level shear will remain favorable through most of the day, well to the east-southeast of its center. A destabilizing airmass along and south of the warm/marine front will support a continued, slow inland shift of supercell potential amid enlarged hodographs. The favorable environment will be bounded on the west by a dry slot and veering low-level flow, on the northeast by more stable air in heavy precip north of the front, and on the south by a gradual weakening of low-level winds and shear as the cyclone center pulls away and fills. In the favorable corridor, where inflow parcels are surface-based, expect effective SRH in the 200-500 m2/s2 range, very rich moisture, low LCL, and weak MLCINH. In the shorter term, a tornado threat may persist this afternoon across northern Florida, while potentially increasing later this afternoon through early evening near the warm front across southern into central Alabama. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible today from northern Florida to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe wind gusts (some significant) are expected across eastern Montana into western North Dakota this afternoon through early/mid-evening. ...Northern Great Plains including eastern MT/western ND... Have upgraded portions of eastern Montana and western North Dakota for a heightened/focused potential for severe storms capable of large hail and potentially significant-caliber severe wind gusts later this afternoon through around mid-evening. Strong-severe thunderstorms are expected, along and behind the front, as early as early/mid-afternoon, with the most probable severe potential arising from activity moving north-northeastward from northern Wyoming and far southern Montana. High-based supercells and multicells are possible, offering large hail and severe wind gusts. These storms may aggregate and grow upscale into one or two bowing clusters, racing north-northeastward accompanied by a swath of better-organized, potentially significant (65+ kt) gust potential. This scenario will be supported by trough-related cooling mid-level temperatures and steep low/mid-level rates atop a modestly moist boundary layer, as the exit region of a strong upper-level jet overspreads the region. MLCAPE of 500-1200 J/kg and 45-55 kt effective-shear magnitudes will support the severe potential including fast-moving and relatively long-lived storms into western North Dakota. The near-surface airmass over the central Dakotas should stabilize with time and eastward extent tonight, limiting duration and eastward shift of the threat. ...Southeast... Current Tropical Depression Francine is forecast to continue moving generally northward over Mississippi, and to lose definition as it interacts more closely with the mid/upper-level low. Associated deep-layer winds will continue to weaken, but low-level shear will remain favorable through most of the day, well to the east-southeast of its center. A destabilizing airmass along and south of the warm/marine front will support a continued, slow inland shift of supercell potential amid enlarged hodographs. The favorable environment will be bounded on the west by a dry slot and veering low-level flow, on the northeast by more stable air in heavy precip north of the front, and on the south by a gradual weakening of low-level winds and shear as the cyclone center pulls away and fills. In the favorable corridor, where inflow parcels are surface-based, expect effective SRH in the 200-500 m2/s2 range, very rich moisture, low LCL, and weak MLCINH. In the shorter term, a tornado threat may persist this afternoon across northern Florida, while potentially increasing later this afternoon through early evening near the warm front across southern into central Alabama. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1138 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible today from northern Florida to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe wind gusts (some significant) are expected across eastern Montana into western North Dakota this afternoon through early/mid-evening. ...Northern Great Plains including eastern MT/western ND... Have upgraded portions of eastern Montana and western North Dakota for a heightened/focused potential for severe storms capable of large hail and potentially significant-caliber severe wind gusts later this afternoon through around mid-evening. Strong-severe thunderstorms are expected, along and behind the front, as early as early/mid-afternoon, with the most probable severe potential arising from activity moving north-northeastward from northern Wyoming and far southern Montana. High-based supercells and multicells are possible, offering large hail and severe wind gusts. These storms may aggregate and grow upscale into one or two bowing clusters, racing north-northeastward accompanied by a swath of better-organized, potentially significant (65+ kt) gust potential. This scenario will be supported by trough-related cooling mid-level temperatures and steep low/mid-level rates atop a modestly moist boundary layer, as the exit region of a strong upper-level jet overspreads the region. MLCAPE of 500-1200 J/kg and 45-55 kt effective-shear magnitudes will support the severe potential including fast-moving and relatively long-lived storms into western North Dakota. The near-surface airmass over the central Dakotas should stabilize with time and eastward extent tonight, limiting duration and eastward shift of the threat. ...Southeast... Current Tropical Depression Francine is forecast to continue moving generally northward over Mississippi, and to lose definition as it interacts more closely with the mid/upper-level low. Associated deep-layer winds will continue to weaken, but low-level shear will remain favorable through most of the day, well to the east-southeast of its center. A destabilizing airmass along and south of the warm/marine front will support a continued, slow inland shift of supercell potential amid enlarged hodographs. The favorable environment will be bounded on the west by a dry slot and veering low-level flow, on the northeast by more stable air in heavy precip north of the front, and on the south by a gradual weakening of low-level winds and shear as the cyclone center pulls away and fills. In the favorable corridor, where inflow parcels are surface-based, expect effective SRH in the 200-500 m2/s2 range, very rich moisture, low LCL, and weak MLCINH. In the shorter term, a tornado threat may persist this afternoon across northern Florida, while potentially increasing later this afternoon through early evening near the warm front across southern into central Alabama. ..Guyer/Jirak.. 09/12/2024 Read more

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 566 WTPZ24 KNHC 121530 TCMEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 107.6W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 107.6W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 107.4W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 20.4N 108.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.0N 109.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 23.5N 110.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 25.0N 110.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 26.1N 110.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 27.0N 110.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 28.6N 111.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 107.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 12/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

WW 0669 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 669 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2059 ..DEAN..09/12/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 669 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC013-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-067-069-099-131-121640- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON MONROE WILCOX FLC005-013-033-037-045-059-063-077-091-113-129-131-133-121640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA FRANKLIN GULF HOLMES JACKSON LIBERTY OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WAKULLA WALTON WASHINGTON GMZ633-634-635-636-655-730-750-752-755-121640- Read more

WW 0669 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 669 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2059 ..DEAN..09/12/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 669 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC013-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-067-069-099-131-121640- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON MONROE WILCOX FLC005-013-033-037-045-059-063-077-091-113-129-131-133-121640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA FRANKLIN GULF HOLMES JACKSON LIBERTY OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WAKULLA WALTON WASHINGTON GMZ633-634-635-636-655-730-750-752-755-121640- Read more

WW 0669 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 669 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2059 ..DEAN..09/12/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 669 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC013-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-067-069-099-131-121640- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON MONROE WILCOX FLC005-013-033-037-045-059-063-077-091-113-129-131-133-121640- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA FRANKLIN GULF HOLMES JACKSON LIBERTY OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WAKULLA WALTON WASHINGTON GMZ633-634-635-636-655-730-750-752-755-121640- Read more

WW 669 TORNADO AL FL CW 121050Z - 121800Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 669 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 550 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Alabama Florida Panhandle Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday morning and afternoon from 550 AM until 100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes possible SUMMARY...As Francine's center continues moving northward over MS and weakens further through midday (per NHC forecast), a slot of wind/moisture/instability fields favorable for supercells and a few tornadoes will shift slowly northward/inland as well. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles west southwest of Evergreen AL to 35 miles south southeast of Marianna FL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...This tornado watch replaces tornado watch number 668. Watch number 668 will not be in effect after 550 AM CDT. AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 50 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector 16030. ...Edwards Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 15:00:19 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Sep 2024 15:34:50 GMT

Issued at 800 AM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 121459 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 800 AM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 Geostationary satellite imagery indicates that the growing area of deep convection associated with the low pressure system off the coast of west-central Mexico has been quite persistent with increased banding noted over the past 6 to 12 h. The subjective intensity estimate from TAFB is T-2.0/30 kt, and on this basis, the system is upgraded to a 30-kt tropical depression. The initial motion is an uncertain northwest, or 325/6 kt. There is a fair amount of uncertainty in the initial position of the center, but it appears to be near the eastern edge of the convection, based on recent microwave imagery. A deep-layer trough located over the western United States will steer the cyclone toward the north-northwest over the next 24 to 36 h, bringing the system near the southern portion of Baja California Sur. After that time, the deep-layer trough is forecast to weaken, which should cause steering currents to weaken. This pattern will likely induce a slower motion toward the north, likely over the waters of the southern Gulf of California. The cyclone could approach the coast of northern Sinaloa or Sonora Saturday night into Sunday. The track forecast guidance is in good agreement for the first 48 h, but then starts to diverge a bit while the system is over the southern Gulf of California. The NHC track forecast is near the middle of the guidance envelope. Due to some uncertainty in the track beyond that time, coastal residents of the Mexican states of Sinaloa and Sonora should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Tropical Depression Nine-E is currently located within an environment of warm ocean waters, low to moderate vertical wind shear, and within a fairly moist low- to mid-level troposphere. However, very dry air is evident on water vapor imagery to the northwest of the cyclone. These conditions are unlikely to change before the cyclone reaches Baja California Sur, and the NHC forecast shows the system becoming a tropical storm later today. Land interaction with the peninsula should cause some temporary weakening. However, water temperatures in the Gulf of California are quite warm, so some restrengthening is possible after the cyclone emerges back over water. The NHC intensity forecast is near the higher end of the intensity guidance. Beyond 60 h, westerly wind shear is expected to increase while the cyclone moves into a drier environment. Even if the system is still over water at that time, the cyclone is likely to begin weakening. The GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery products show the cyclone losing its convection around 72 h. The NHC forecast shows weakening at that time, with the system becoming a remnant low beyond 72 h. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Depression Nine-E will bring heavy rainfall to portions of western Mexico and southern Baja California through this weekend. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of the Baja California Sur on Friday, where Tropical Storm Warnings have been issued. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 19.2N 107.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 20.4N 108.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 22.0N 109.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 23.5N 110.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 14/1200Z 25.0N 110.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 15/0000Z 26.1N 110.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 15/1200Z 27.0N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 16/1200Z 28.6N 111.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 120H 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Hagen

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 121458 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 107.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 14(14) 24(38) 1(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) CABO SAN LUCAS 50 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 11(11) 25(36) 2(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) SAN JOSE CABO 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LA PAZ 34 X 2( 2) 17(19) 9(28) 2(30) X(30) X(30) LA PAZ 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LORETO 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) LOS MOCHIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 110W 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN

Issued at 800 AM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 121458 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 800 AM MST Thu Sep 12 2024 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.2N 107.6W ABOUT 295 MI...475 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the southern portion of Baja California Sur from Santa Fe southward on the west coast and La Paz southward on the east coast. The government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Watch along the east coast of Baja California Sur north of La Paz to San Evaristo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from La Paz southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico north of La Paz to San Evaristo A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Tropical Depression Nine-E. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Nine-E was located near latitude 19.2 North, longitude 107.6 West. The depression is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through early Friday, followed by a turn toward the north and a slight decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of the cyclone should pass near or over Baja California Sur Friday or Friday night before emerging over the southern Gulf of California late Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 to 36 hours, and the depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm later today, with some slight additional strengthening possible before the system reaches the southern Baja California peninsula. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the depression can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Nine-E is expected to produce 4-6 inches of rain with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches across the coastal areas of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through early Friday. From Friday through Sunday, the system is forecast to produce 4-6 inches of rain, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, the system may produce between 6-8 inches of rain with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the warning area by early Friday, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Friday night or early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Tropical Depression Nine-E will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico during the next day or so, and will spread northward along the coasts of the southern Baja California Peninsula and mainland Mexico beginning tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM MST. Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Hagen

...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA OF MEXICO... As of 8:00 AM MST Thu Sep 12 the center of Nine-E was located near 19.2, -107.6 with movement NW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 ZCZC MIATCMEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 1500 UTC THU SEP 12 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 107.6W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 107.6W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 107.4W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 20.4N 108.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 22.0N 109.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 23.5N 110.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 25.0N 110.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 26.1N 110.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 27.0N 110.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 28.6N 111.2W...POST-TROP/INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.2N 107.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 12/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN NNNN

A pumpkin grower in Madison County put in a lot of extra work irrigating to get a crop of small pumpkins. The corn field has turned brown like it would normally look in November and will be harvested early. The ears were stunted and had fewer kernels than usual. The soybeans will likely yield tiny beans. WCMH-TV NBC 4 (Columbus, Ohio), Sept 12, 2024

WW 0669 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 669 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DEAN..09/12/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 669 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC013-031-035-039-041-045-053-061-067-069-099-131-121440- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUTLER COFFEE CONECUH COVINGTON CRENSHAW DALE ESCAMBIA GENEVA HENRY HOUSTON MONROE WILCOX FLC005-013-033-037-045-059-063-077-091-113-129-131-133-121440- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY CALHOUN ESCAMBIA FRANKLIN GULF HOLMES JACKSON LIBERTY OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WAKULLA WALTON WASHINGTON GMZ633-634-635-636-655-730-750-752-755-121440- CW Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0748 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS...AND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NORTH-CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes are possible today, mainly in the morning and afternoon from the Florida Panhandle to north-central Alabama. Scattered large hail and severe gusts (some significant) are expected across the eastern Montana vicinity during the afternoon to early evening. ...Synopsis... Over the CONUS, in mid/upper levels, a highly amplified initial pattern will become more blocky through the period. A strong northern-stream trough with an intermittently closed cyclone is apparent in moisture-channel imagery from the Canadian Rockies southward over ID to the central Great Basin. The 500-mb low is forecast to move northeastward across western and northern MT to near the southwestern corner of SK by the end of the period. By then, the attached trough will deamplify slightly and become more positively tilted, extending from the low to central UT. A baroclinic leaf with strongly difluent flow aloft precedes the trough in satellite imagery over southeastern ID, western WY and central MT, with an eastward shift and some reinforcement expected today as small vorticity maxima pivot northeastward out of the trough. Meanwhile, an initially separate, weak 500-mb low now over the Red River near PRX, and the remnants of Tropical Storm Francine aloft, are progged to merge over the upper Delta/Mid-South region today into tonight. The result after 06Z should be a slow-moving mid/upper-level low over AR, nearly stacked above the weakening low-level vortex just to the east around MEM. [See NHC advisories for latest forecast track/intensity guidance on Francine.] An anticyclone aloft should form later today and expand tonight northeast of that low, over the Upper Great Lakes region. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a warm front across northernmost FL to the coastal FL Panhandle, then slightly inland over the western Panhandle, southwestern AL and southeastern MS. This boundary will move slowly northward/inland today, demarcating the north rim of mid-70s F surface dewpoints. Meanwhile, a surface low was drawn over eastern MT west of GDV, with slow-moving cold front south-southwestward across northeastern/central WY. The low and front will continue slow/intermittent eastward progress today, then move into the western Dakotas around 22-00Z, then eastward to the central Dakotas late overnight. ...Northern Great Plains... Strong-severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon into evening, along and behind the front, with the most probable severe potential arising from activity moving north-northeastward from northern WY. High-based supercells and multicells are possible, offering large hail and severe gusts. Some of the activity may aggregate upscale into one or two bowing clusters, racing northward accompanied by a swath of better-organized, potentially significant (65+ kt) gust potential. Thunderstorms may develop along the front in early-mid afternoon, as well as in and near the Bighorns, where diurnal heating of elevated terrain preferentially removes MLCINH earliest. A corridor of favorable surface moisture will remain near and behind the front and ahead of this convection. Meanwhile, midlevel temperatures will cool and steepen low/middle-level lapse rates, as large-scale ascent spreads over the area, both ahead of the ejecting mid/upper trough and in the left-exit region of a cyclonically curved 300-mb jet segment. This will occur atop a deep and well-mixed boundary layer containing nearly dry-adiabatic lapse rates. A northerly flow component west of the front will enhance storm-relative winds in the inflow layer, as well as low-level and deep-layer shear, strengthening lift and helping to maintain and further organize the convection. MLCAPE of 500-1200 J/kg and 45-55 kt effective-shear magnitudes will support the severe potential. Convection forming later and farther east near the front over the western Dakotas, from late afternoon into evening, also may pose a strong to locally severe gust threat for a few hours, and the marginal outlook area has been expanded eastward somewhat to give more room for that process. Flow aloft will bear a substantial component parallel to the convective axis, indicating a largely training or linear configuration is possible, along the western rim of a 50-60-kt LLJ fostering warm advection and moisture transport above the surface. However, the near-surface airmass over the central Dakotas should stabilize with time and eastward extent tonight, limiting duration and eastward shift of the threat. ...Southeastern CONUS... Tropical Storm Francine is forecast to continue moving northward over MS, and to lose definition as it interacts more closely with the mid/upper-level low. Accordingly, associated deep-layer winds will continue to weaken, but low-level shear will remain favorable through most of the day well east-southeast to southeast of center. A destabilizing airmass along and south of the warm/marine front will support a continued, slow inland shift of supercell potential amid enlarged hodographs. The favorable environment will be bounded on the west by a dry slot and veering low-level flow, on the northeast by unsuitably stable air in heavy precip and north of the front, and on the south by a gradual weakening of low-level winds and shear as the cyclone center pulls away and fills. In the favorable corridor, where inflow parcels are surface-based, expect effective SRH in the 200-500 J/kg range, very rich moisture, low LCL, and weak MLCINH. The threat should diminish overnight as the airmass slowly stabilizes inland, and the system continues to weaken overall. ..Edwards/Kerr.. 09/12/2024 Read more