Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 120535
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Sep 11 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles
west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing a large area of
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next couple of days while the system moves
slowly northwestward, near the coast of southwestern Mexico and
toward the Baja California Peninsula. Regardless of development,
heavy rainfall is likely across coastal portions of southwestern and
west-central Mexico during the next day or two. Interests in the
southern Baja California peninsula should monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

WW 0668 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0668 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0668 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0668 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0667 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 667 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 105 SSE BVE TO 45 ESE BVE TO 30 ENE BVE TO 30 ESE MSY TO 5 W MSY TO 25 W MSY TO 50 WNW MSY TO 55 SW MCB. ..JEWELL..09/12/24 ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 667 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC063-071-087-095-103-105-117-120240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS ST. BERNARD ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON MSC045-047-059-109-120240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON PEARL RIVER GMZ530-532-534-536-538-555-557-575-577-632-650-670-120240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0667 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 667 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 105 SSE BVE TO 45 ESE BVE TO 30 ENE BVE TO 30 ESE MSY TO 5 W MSY TO 25 W MSY TO 50 WNW MSY TO 55 SW MCB. ..JEWELL..09/12/24 ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 667 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC063-071-087-095-103-105-117-120240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS ST. BERNARD ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON MSC045-047-059-109-120240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON PEARL RIVER GMZ530-532-534-536-538-555-557-575-577-632-650-670-120240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0667 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 667 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 105 SSE BVE TO 45 ESE BVE TO 30 ENE BVE TO 30 ESE MSY TO 5 W MSY TO 25 W MSY TO 50 WNW MSY TO 55 SW MCB. ..JEWELL..09/12/24 ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 667 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC063-071-087-095-103-105-117-120240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS ST. BERNARD ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON MSC045-047-059-109-120240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON PEARL RIVER GMZ530-532-534-536-538-555-557-575-577-632-650-670-120240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0667 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 667 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 105 SSE BVE TO 45 ESE BVE TO 30 ENE BVE TO 30 ESE MSY TO 5 W MSY TO 25 W MSY TO 50 WNW MSY TO 55 SW MCB. ..JEWELL..09/12/24 ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 667 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC063-071-087-095-103-105-117-120240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS ST. BERNARD ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON MSC045-047-059-109-120240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON PEARL RIVER GMZ530-532-534-536-538-555-557-575-577-632-650-670-120240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 0667 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 667 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 105 SSE BVE TO 45 ESE BVE TO 30 ENE BVE TO 30 ESE MSY TO 5 W MSY TO 25 W MSY TO 50 WNW MSY TO 55 SW MCB. ..JEWELL..09/12/24 ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 667 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC063-071-087-095-103-105-117-120240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS ST. BERNARD ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON MSC045-047-059-109-120240- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON PEARL RIVER GMZ530-532-534-536-538-555-557-575-577-632-650-670-120240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 667 TORNADO LA MS CW 111740Z - 120400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 667 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Louisiana Far Southern Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1240 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes likely SUMMARY...Hurricane Francine will continue to approach the southern Louisiana coast and move inland as it progresses northeastward across the region through tonight. The potential for tornadoes is expected to increase through the afternoon and early evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west southwest of Houma LA to 40 miles east southeast of Gulfport MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 16045. ...Guyer Read more

MD 2056 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 667... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...FAR SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
Mesoscale Discussion 2056 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0720 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Louisiana...far southern Mississippi and southwest Alabama Concerning...Tornado Watch 667... Valid 120020Z - 120145Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 667 continues. SUMMARY...The tornado threat continues over the northeastern quadrant of Francine. While storms have not been overly active so far, strong low-level shear remains in place and a greater threat could evolve tonight. DISCUSSION...As of 0015z, the center of Hurricane Francine was located 55 miles southwest of New Orleans, LA. Within the northeastern quadrant, low-level hodographs have continued to enlarge this evening with the HDC VAD showing 500-600 m2/s2 of 0-1km SRH. While low-level shear remains very strong, east/northeasterly surface flow has prevented the more unstable air mass farther south from moving inland to this point. As the center of Francine continues to move inland, low-level flow should begin to veer, allowing the higher theta-E air mass to move onshore. This looks most likely to occur over eastern portions of WW667 into southern MS and far southwest AL later this evening. Convective cells within the eastern most spiral bands have shown more cellular mode and occasional rotation. Hi-res guidance shows a few of these supercells potentially moving inland tonight. Ahead of these storms, RAP soundings show enlarging hodographs and modest buoyancy (~500-700 J/kg of MLCAPE) that could support the potential for a few tornadoes this evening. ..Lyons.. 09/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX... LAT...LON 30608816 30298753 30158747 29678755 29548789 29538851 29418889 29308918 29418958 29779059 30059076 30439054 30629042 30938974 30928909 30818852 30608816 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE FRANCINE.... ...SUMMARY... Tornado threat continues with Hurricane Francine across the middle Gulf Coast region. ...01z Update... Center of Hurricane Francine has moved onshore and will continue lifting slowly north through sunrise. Stronger, deeper updrafts are currently located within the eastern hemisphere of the low, per lightning data, along with a few longer-lived supercells. Have adjusted severe probabilities down along the western portion of Francine to reflect the latest position. Tornado threat continues with stronger supercells. High-level diffluent flow is noted across the northern Rockies this evening ahead of a pronounced short-wave trough that currently extends across eastern WA/OR into NV. 500mb speed max will dig into the base of the trough later tonight across the Great Basin which will ensure the left-exit region of the jet will spread across eastern ID/southern MT/western WY. Considerable amount of lightning is currently noted with convection ahead of the short wave, and some stronger wind gusts have also been observed. 00z sounding from Great Falls, MT exhibited meager buoyancy, but steep lapse rates are contributing to MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg across southern MT into eastern ID/western WY. This continues to favor some risk for locally severe winds with the more robust convection this evening. ..Darrow.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE FRANCINE.... ...SUMMARY... Tornado threat continues with Hurricane Francine across the middle Gulf Coast region. ...01z Update... Center of Hurricane Francine has moved onshore and will continue lifting slowly north through sunrise. Stronger, deeper updrafts are currently located within the eastern hemisphere of the low, per lightning data, along with a few longer-lived supercells. Have adjusted severe probabilities down along the western portion of Francine to reflect the latest position. Tornado threat continues with stronger supercells. High-level diffluent flow is noted across the northern Rockies this evening ahead of a pronounced short-wave trough that currently extends across eastern WA/OR into NV. 500mb speed max will dig into the base of the trough later tonight across the Great Basin which will ensure the left-exit region of the jet will spread across eastern ID/southern MT/western WY. Considerable amount of lightning is currently noted with convection ahead of the short wave, and some stronger wind gusts have also been observed. 00z sounding from Great Falls, MT exhibited meager buoyancy, but steep lapse rates are contributing to MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg across southern MT into eastern ID/western WY. This continues to favor some risk for locally severe winds with the more robust convection this evening. ..Darrow.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE FRANCINE.... ...SUMMARY... Tornado threat continues with Hurricane Francine across the middle Gulf Coast region. ...01z Update... Center of Hurricane Francine has moved onshore and will continue lifting slowly north through sunrise. Stronger, deeper updrafts are currently located within the eastern hemisphere of the low, per lightning data, along with a few longer-lived supercells. Have adjusted severe probabilities down along the western portion of Francine to reflect the latest position. Tornado threat continues with stronger supercells. High-level diffluent flow is noted across the northern Rockies this evening ahead of a pronounced short-wave trough that currently extends across eastern WA/OR into NV. 500mb speed max will dig into the base of the trough later tonight across the Great Basin which will ensure the left-exit region of the jet will spread across eastern ID/southern MT/western WY. Considerable amount of lightning is currently noted with convection ahead of the short wave, and some stronger wind gusts have also been observed. 00z sounding from Great Falls, MT exhibited meager buoyancy, but steep lapse rates are contributing to MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg across southern MT into eastern ID/western WY. This continues to favor some risk for locally severe winds with the more robust convection this evening. ..Darrow.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE FRANCINE.... ...SUMMARY... Tornado threat continues with Hurricane Francine across the middle Gulf Coast region. ...01z Update... Center of Hurricane Francine has moved onshore and will continue lifting slowly north through sunrise. Stronger, deeper updrafts are currently located within the eastern hemisphere of the low, per lightning data, along with a few longer-lived supercells. Have adjusted severe probabilities down along the western portion of Francine to reflect the latest position. Tornado threat continues with stronger supercells. High-level diffluent flow is noted across the northern Rockies this evening ahead of a pronounced short-wave trough that currently extends across eastern WA/OR into NV. 500mb speed max will dig into the base of the trough later tonight across the Great Basin which will ensure the left-exit region of the jet will spread across eastern ID/southern MT/western WY. Considerable amount of lightning is currently noted with convection ahead of the short wave, and some stronger wind gusts have also been observed. 00z sounding from Great Falls, MT exhibited meager buoyancy, but steep lapse rates are contributing to MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg across southern MT into eastern ID/western WY. This continues to favor some risk for locally severe winds with the more robust convection this evening. ..Darrow.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 120100Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST IN ASSOCIATION WITH HURRICANE FRANCINE.... ...SUMMARY... Tornado threat continues with Hurricane Francine across the middle Gulf Coast region. ...01z Update... Center of Hurricane Francine has moved onshore and will continue lifting slowly north through sunrise. Stronger, deeper updrafts are currently located within the eastern hemisphere of the low, per lightning data, along with a few longer-lived supercells. Have adjusted severe probabilities down along the western portion of Francine to reflect the latest position. Tornado threat continues with stronger supercells. High-level diffluent flow is noted across the northern Rockies this evening ahead of a pronounced short-wave trough that currently extends across eastern WA/OR into NV. 500mb speed max will dig into the base of the trough later tonight across the Great Basin which will ensure the left-exit region of the jet will spread across eastern ID/southern MT/western WY. Considerable amount of lightning is currently noted with convection ahead of the short wave, and some stronger wind gusts have also been observed. 00z sounding from Great Falls, MT exhibited meager buoyancy, but steep lapse rates are contributing to MLCAPE on the order of 500 J/kg across southern MT into eastern ID/western WY. This continues to favor some risk for locally severe winds with the more robust convection this evening. ..Darrow.. 09/12/2024 Read more

MD 2055 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2055 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Areas affected...portions of southern Alabama into the western Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 112040Z - 120015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The tropical-cyclone tornado threat should gradually increase through the remainder of the afternoon. A Tornado Watch will eventually be needed. DISCUSSION...The center of Hurricane Francine continues to translate northeast as it approaches the LA coastline. Extending east-northeast of Francine's center is a zonal rainband, comprised of relatively discrete cells (some possibly transient supercellular). At the moment, these storms are percolating in intensity offshore, where a greater theta-e/buoyant airmass resides. However, this airmass is expected to gradually advect northward/inland with the north-northeastward progression of Francine through the afternoon and evening hours. HDC and MOB VADs show increasing hodograph sizes/curvature, indicating stronger low-level shear become established along the Gulf Coast. As such, a corresponding tornado threat should increase with the more favorable low-level warm-air/moisture advection. A Tornado Watch will eventually be needed. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 09/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX... LAT...LON 29628497 29838549 30238646 30308736 30318792 30548839 31038848 31448845 31688811 31648734 31368622 31168580 30778518 30238464 29978456 29808453 29628497 Read more

WW 0667 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 667 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 110 S BVE TO 50 S BVE TO 15 SSW BVE TO 20 W BVE TO 30 E HUM TO 5 NE HUM TO 20 WNW HUM TO 40 WNW HUM TO 45 NW HUM TO 50 SW MCB. ..JEWELL..09/11/24 ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 667 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-047-051-057-063-071-075-087-089-093-095-103-105-117- 120040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION IBERVILLE JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON MSC045-047-059-109-120040- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON PEARL RIVER GMZ530-532-534-536-538-555-557-575-577-632-650-670-120040- Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 112347
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Sep 11 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP93):
A broad area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles off
the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing a large area of
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the next couple of days as the system moves slowly
northwestward, near the coast of southwestern Mexico and toward the
Baja California Peninsula. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall
is likely across coastal portions of southwestern and west-central
Mexico during the next day or two. Interests in the southern Baja
California peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

MD 2055 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN ALABAMA INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2055 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Areas affected...portions of southern Alabama into the western Florida Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely Valid 112040Z - 120015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The tropical-cyclone tornado threat should gradually increase through the remainder of the afternoon. A Tornado Watch will eventually be needed. DISCUSSION...The center of Hurricane Francine continues to translate northeast as it approaches the LA coastline. Extending east-northeast of Francine's center is a zonal rainband, comprised of relatively discrete cells (some possibly transient supercellular). At the moment, these storms are percolating in intensity offshore, where a greater theta-e/buoyant airmass resides. However, this airmass is expected to gradually advect northward/inland with the north-northeastward progression of Francine through the afternoon and evening hours. HDC and MOB VADs show increasing hodograph sizes/curvature, indicating stronger low-level shear become established along the Gulf Coast. As such, a corresponding tornado threat should increase with the more favorable low-level warm-air/moisture advection. A Tornado Watch will eventually be needed. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 09/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB...LIX... LAT...LON 29628497 29838549 30238646 30308736 30318792 30548839 31038848 31448845 31688811 31648734 31368622 31168580 30778518 30238464 29978456 29808453 29628497 Read more