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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A strong upper level low will rotate eastward across the eastern CONUS tomorrow. A surface low will deepen and eventually occlude into the interior Northeast during the afternoon/evening. Isentropic ascent will lead to some elevated instability and thunderstorm potential from the Mid-Atlantic to New England tomorrow morning and afternoon. Weak instability should mitigate any severe weather concerns. Cold air aloft will result in some weak instability across the northeast Pacific. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the Washington coast, primarily during the morning and early afternoon. ..Bentley.. 11/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A strong upper level low will rotate eastward across the eastern CONUS tomorrow. A surface low will deepen and eventually occlude into the interior Northeast during the afternoon/evening. Isentropic ascent will lead to some elevated instability and thunderstorm potential from the Mid-Atlantic to New England tomorrow morning and afternoon. Weak instability should mitigate any severe weather concerns. Cold air aloft will result in some weak instability across the northeast Pacific. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the Washington coast, primarily during the morning and early afternoon. ..Bentley.. 11/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A strong upper level low will rotate eastward across the eastern CONUS tomorrow. A surface low will deepen and eventually occlude into the interior Northeast during the afternoon/evening. Isentropic ascent will lead to some elevated instability and thunderstorm potential from the Mid-Atlantic to New England tomorrow morning and afternoon. Weak instability should mitigate any severe weather concerns. Cold air aloft will result in some weak instability across the northeast Pacific. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the Washington coast, primarily during the morning and early afternoon. ..Bentley.. 11/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A strong upper level low will rotate eastward across the eastern CONUS tomorrow. A surface low will deepen and eventually occlude into the interior Northeast during the afternoon/evening. Isentropic ascent will lead to some elevated instability and thunderstorm potential from the Mid-Atlantic to New England tomorrow morning and afternoon. Weak instability should mitigate any severe weather concerns. Cold air aloft will result in some weak instability across the northeast Pacific. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the Washington coast, primarily during the morning and early afternoon. ..Bentley.. 11/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A strong upper level low will rotate eastward across the eastern CONUS tomorrow. A surface low will deepen and eventually occlude into the interior Northeast during the afternoon/evening. Isentropic ascent will lead to some elevated instability and thunderstorm potential from the Mid-Atlantic to New England tomorrow morning and afternoon. Weak instability should mitigate any severe weather concerns. Cold air aloft will result in some weak instability across the northeast Pacific. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the Washington coast, primarily during the morning and early afternoon. ..Bentley.. 11/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A strong upper level low will rotate eastward across the eastern CONUS tomorrow. A surface low will deepen and eventually occlude into the interior Northeast during the afternoon/evening. Isentropic ascent will lead to some elevated instability and thunderstorm potential from the Mid-Atlantic to New England tomorrow morning and afternoon. Weak instability should mitigate any severe weather concerns. Cold air aloft will result in some weak instability across the northeast Pacific. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the Washington coast, primarily during the morning and early afternoon. ..Bentley.. 11/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A strong upper level low will rotate eastward across the eastern CONUS tomorrow. A surface low will deepen and eventually occlude into the interior Northeast during the afternoon/evening. Isentropic ascent will lead to some elevated instability and thunderstorm potential from the Mid-Atlantic to New England tomorrow morning and afternoon. Weak instability should mitigate any severe weather concerns. Cold air aloft will result in some weak instability across the northeast Pacific. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the Washington coast, primarily during the morning and early afternoon. ..Bentley.. 11/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1104 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Synopsis... A strong upper level low will rotate eastward across the eastern CONUS tomorrow. A surface low will deepen and eventually occlude into the interior Northeast during the afternoon/evening. Isentropic ascent will lead to some elevated instability and thunderstorm potential from the Mid-Atlantic to New England tomorrow morning and afternoon. Weak instability should mitigate any severe weather concerns. Cold air aloft will result in some weak instability across the northeast Pacific. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the Washington coast, primarily during the morning and early afternoon. ..Bentley.. 11/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Mid-Atlantic into North Carolina... Midday water-vapor imagery shows a cyclone over the Upper Midwest that will move eastward across the Great Lakes through tonight. A cold front will advance eastward over these regions. While low-level moisture will gradually increase across NC into the southern Mid-Atlantic by early evening, considerable cloud cover and relatively meager lapse rates will only result in pockets of weak instability. Nonetheless, low-topped convection should still form along or just ahead of the cold front across eastern OH into western PA and WV by late this afternoon according to the latest guidance. This elevated convection is forecast to continue moving eastward over the southern Mid-Atlantic this evening and overnight. However, boundary-layer instability is forecast to remain minimal with eastward extent, which should limit the storm intensity. ...Coastal Pacific Northwest... A powerful upper cyclone west of British Columbia will occlude and gradually move away from the coast. Low-level warm advection will support intermittent low-topped convection across coastal portions of the Pacific Northwest. With surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 40s over land, instability will remain scant---precluding a severe risk. ..Smith/Flournoy.. 11/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Mid-Atlantic into North Carolina... Midday water-vapor imagery shows a cyclone over the Upper Midwest that will move eastward across the Great Lakes through tonight. A cold front will advance eastward over these regions. While low-level moisture will gradually increase across NC into the southern Mid-Atlantic by early evening, considerable cloud cover and relatively meager lapse rates will only result in pockets of weak instability. Nonetheless, low-topped convection should still form along or just ahead of the cold front across eastern OH into western PA and WV by late this afternoon according to the latest guidance. This elevated convection is forecast to continue moving eastward over the southern Mid-Atlantic this evening and overnight. However, boundary-layer instability is forecast to remain minimal with eastward extent, which should limit the storm intensity. ...Coastal Pacific Northwest... A powerful upper cyclone west of British Columbia will occlude and gradually move away from the coast. Low-level warm advection will support intermittent low-topped convection across coastal portions of the Pacific Northwest. With surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 40s over land, instability will remain scant---precluding a severe risk. ..Smith/Flournoy.. 11/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Mid-Atlantic into North Carolina... Midday water-vapor imagery shows a cyclone over the Upper Midwest that will move eastward across the Great Lakes through tonight. A cold front will advance eastward over these regions. While low-level moisture will gradually increase across NC into the southern Mid-Atlantic by early evening, considerable cloud cover and relatively meager lapse rates will only result in pockets of weak instability. Nonetheless, low-topped convection should still form along or just ahead of the cold front across eastern OH into western PA and WV by late this afternoon according to the latest guidance. This elevated convection is forecast to continue moving eastward over the southern Mid-Atlantic this evening and overnight. However, boundary-layer instability is forecast to remain minimal with eastward extent, which should limit the storm intensity. ...Coastal Pacific Northwest... A powerful upper cyclone west of British Columbia will occlude and gradually move away from the coast. Low-level warm advection will support intermittent low-topped convection across coastal portions of the Pacific Northwest. With surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 40s over land, instability will remain scant---precluding a severe risk. ..Smith/Flournoy.. 11/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Mid-Atlantic into North Carolina... Midday water-vapor imagery shows a cyclone over the Upper Midwest that will move eastward across the Great Lakes through tonight. A cold front will advance eastward over these regions. While low-level moisture will gradually increase across NC into the southern Mid-Atlantic by early evening, considerable cloud cover and relatively meager lapse rates will only result in pockets of weak instability. Nonetheless, low-topped convection should still form along or just ahead of the cold front across eastern OH into western PA and WV by late this afternoon according to the latest guidance. This elevated convection is forecast to continue moving eastward over the southern Mid-Atlantic this evening and overnight. However, boundary-layer instability is forecast to remain minimal with eastward extent, which should limit the storm intensity. ...Coastal Pacific Northwest... A powerful upper cyclone west of British Columbia will occlude and gradually move away from the coast. Low-level warm advection will support intermittent low-topped convection across coastal portions of the Pacific Northwest. With surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 40s over land, instability will remain scant---precluding a severe risk. ..Smith/Flournoy.. 11/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Mid-Atlantic into North Carolina... Midday water-vapor imagery shows a cyclone over the Upper Midwest that will move eastward across the Great Lakes through tonight. A cold front will advance eastward over these regions. While low-level moisture will gradually increase across NC into the southern Mid-Atlantic by early evening, considerable cloud cover and relatively meager lapse rates will only result in pockets of weak instability. Nonetheless, low-topped convection should still form along or just ahead of the cold front across eastern OH into western PA and WV by late this afternoon according to the latest guidance. This elevated convection is forecast to continue moving eastward over the southern Mid-Atlantic this evening and overnight. However, boundary-layer instability is forecast to remain minimal with eastward extent, which should limit the storm intensity. ...Coastal Pacific Northwest... A powerful upper cyclone west of British Columbia will occlude and gradually move away from the coast. Low-level warm advection will support intermittent low-topped convection across coastal portions of the Pacific Northwest. With surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 40s over land, instability will remain scant---precluding a severe risk. ..Smith/Flournoy.. 11/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Mid-Atlantic into North Carolina... Midday water-vapor imagery shows a cyclone over the Upper Midwest that will move eastward across the Great Lakes through tonight. A cold front will advance eastward over these regions. While low-level moisture will gradually increase across NC into the southern Mid-Atlantic by early evening, considerable cloud cover and relatively meager lapse rates will only result in pockets of weak instability. Nonetheless, low-topped convection should still form along or just ahead of the cold front across eastern OH into western PA and WV by late this afternoon according to the latest guidance. This elevated convection is forecast to continue moving eastward over the southern Mid-Atlantic this evening and overnight. However, boundary-layer instability is forecast to remain minimal with eastward extent, which should limit the storm intensity. ...Coastal Pacific Northwest... A powerful upper cyclone west of British Columbia will occlude and gradually move away from the coast. Low-level warm advection will support intermittent low-topped convection across coastal portions of the Pacific Northwest. With surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 40s over land, instability will remain scant---precluding a severe risk. ..Smith/Flournoy.. 11/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Mid-Atlantic into North Carolina... Midday water-vapor imagery shows a cyclone over the Upper Midwest that will move eastward across the Great Lakes through tonight. A cold front will advance eastward over these regions. While low-level moisture will gradually increase across NC into the southern Mid-Atlantic by early evening, considerable cloud cover and relatively meager lapse rates will only result in pockets of weak instability. Nonetheless, low-topped convection should still form along or just ahead of the cold front across eastern OH into western PA and WV by late this afternoon according to the latest guidance. This elevated convection is forecast to continue moving eastward over the southern Mid-Atlantic this evening and overnight. However, boundary-layer instability is forecast to remain minimal with eastward extent, which should limit the storm intensity. ...Coastal Pacific Northwest... A powerful upper cyclone west of British Columbia will occlude and gradually move away from the coast. Low-level warm advection will support intermittent low-topped convection across coastal portions of the Pacific Northwest. With surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 40s over land, instability will remain scant---precluding a severe risk. ..Smith/Flournoy.. 11/20/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Valid 201630Z - 211200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely through tonight across the contiguous United States. ...Mid-Atlantic into North Carolina... Midday water-vapor imagery shows a cyclone over the Upper Midwest that will move eastward across the Great Lakes through tonight. A cold front will advance eastward over these regions. While low-level moisture will gradually increase across NC into the southern Mid-Atlantic by early evening, considerable cloud cover and relatively meager lapse rates will only result in pockets of weak instability. Nonetheless, low-topped convection should still form along or just ahead of the cold front across eastern OH into western PA and WV by late this afternoon according to the latest guidance. This elevated convection is forecast to continue moving eastward over the southern Mid-Atlantic this evening and overnight. However, boundary-layer instability is forecast to remain minimal with eastward extent, which should limit the storm intensity. ...Coastal Pacific Northwest... A powerful upper cyclone west of British Columbia will occlude and gradually move away from the coast. Low-level warm advection will support intermittent low-topped convection across coastal portions of the Pacific Northwest. With surface dewpoints generally in the low to mid 40s over land, instability will remain scant---precluding a severe risk. ..Smith/Flournoy.. 11/20/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...Central Plains... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on recent observations and trends in forecast guidance. Gradient winds gusting to 40-50 mph are already being observed across southern SD and will spread into NE by late morning as a shallow nocturnal inversion (evident on the 12z LBF sounding) mixes out. The greatest fire threat should be focused across southwest SD into western NE where fuels are driest, but elevated to critical fire weather conditions will likely spread into south-central NE as well. However, recent 1+ inch rainfall amounts within the past 24 hours should limit fire potential with eastward extent. ...Western to central Nevada... Localized elevated to critical fire weather conditions are ongoing this morning across far western NV within the downslope wind regime in the lee of the central Sierra Nevada. Such conditions should gradually become more widespread into central NV by late afternoon as diurnal heating promotes drying/mixing. Despite the wind/RH conditions, recent fuel guidance suggests ERCs remain below critical thresholds to warrant risk highlights. ..Moore.. 11/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level low initially in the northern Plains will shift eastward into the Upper Midwest and intensify today. Strong low to mid-level winds will continue across portions of the central Plains as an associated surface low deepens in the Lower Great Lakes region. ...Central Plains... Temperatures will again be rather cool (mid/upper 40s F appear most probable). However, strong surface winds of 15-25 mph (with higher gusts) are likely across parts of eastern Wyoming into adjacent South Dakota and western Nebraska. RH will also fall to near 20% given the very dry airmass. Some fire weather concern could develop in fine fuels. Some weakening of the pressure gradient is expected by late afternoon which will limit the duration of the threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...Central Plains... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on recent observations and trends in forecast guidance. Gradient winds gusting to 40-50 mph are already being observed across southern SD and will spread into NE by late morning as a shallow nocturnal inversion (evident on the 12z LBF sounding) mixes out. The greatest fire threat should be focused across southwest SD into western NE where fuels are driest, but elevated to critical fire weather conditions will likely spread into south-central NE as well. However, recent 1+ inch rainfall amounts within the past 24 hours should limit fire potential with eastward extent. ...Western to central Nevada... Localized elevated to critical fire weather conditions are ongoing this morning across far western NV within the downslope wind regime in the lee of the central Sierra Nevada. Such conditions should gradually become more widespread into central NV by late afternoon as diurnal heating promotes drying/mixing. Despite the wind/RH conditions, recent fuel guidance suggests ERCs remain below critical thresholds to warrant risk highlights. ..Moore.. 11/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level low initially in the northern Plains will shift eastward into the Upper Midwest and intensify today. Strong low to mid-level winds will continue across portions of the central Plains as an associated surface low deepens in the Lower Great Lakes region. ...Central Plains... Temperatures will again be rather cool (mid/upper 40s F appear most probable). However, strong surface winds of 15-25 mph (with higher gusts) are likely across parts of eastern Wyoming into adjacent South Dakota and western Nebraska. RH will also fall to near 20% given the very dry airmass. Some fire weather concern could develop in fine fuels. Some weakening of the pressure gradient is expected by late afternoon which will limit the duration of the threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...Central Plains... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on recent observations and trends in forecast guidance. Gradient winds gusting to 40-50 mph are already being observed across southern SD and will spread into NE by late morning as a shallow nocturnal inversion (evident on the 12z LBF sounding) mixes out. The greatest fire threat should be focused across southwest SD into western NE where fuels are driest, but elevated to critical fire weather conditions will likely spread into south-central NE as well. However, recent 1+ inch rainfall amounts within the past 24 hours should limit fire potential with eastward extent. ...Western to central Nevada... Localized elevated to critical fire weather conditions are ongoing this morning across far western NV within the downslope wind regime in the lee of the central Sierra Nevada. Such conditions should gradually become more widespread into central NV by late afternoon as diurnal heating promotes drying/mixing. Despite the wind/RH conditions, recent fuel guidance suggests ERCs remain below critical thresholds to warrant risk highlights. ..Moore.. 11/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level low initially in the northern Plains will shift eastward into the Upper Midwest and intensify today. Strong low to mid-level winds will continue across portions of the central Plains as an associated surface low deepens in the Lower Great Lakes region. ...Central Plains... Temperatures will again be rather cool (mid/upper 40s F appear most probable). However, strong surface winds of 15-25 mph (with higher gusts) are likely across parts of eastern Wyoming into adjacent South Dakota and western Nebraska. RH will also fall to near 20% given the very dry airmass. Some fire weather concern could develop in fine fuels. Some weakening of the pressure gradient is expected by late afternoon which will limit the duration of the threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1016 AM CST Wed Nov 20 2024 Valid 201700Z - 211200Z ...Central Plains... The previous forecast remains on track with only minor adjustments made based on recent observations and trends in forecast guidance. Gradient winds gusting to 40-50 mph are already being observed across southern SD and will spread into NE by late morning as a shallow nocturnal inversion (evident on the 12z LBF sounding) mixes out. The greatest fire threat should be focused across southwest SD into western NE where fuels are driest, but elevated to critical fire weather conditions will likely spread into south-central NE as well. However, recent 1+ inch rainfall amounts within the past 24 hours should limit fire potential with eastward extent. ...Western to central Nevada... Localized elevated to critical fire weather conditions are ongoing this morning across far western NV within the downslope wind regime in the lee of the central Sierra Nevada. Such conditions should gradually become more widespread into central NV by late afternoon as diurnal heating promotes drying/mixing. Despite the wind/RH conditions, recent fuel guidance suggests ERCs remain below critical thresholds to warrant risk highlights. ..Moore.. 11/20/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1141 PM CST Tue Nov 19 2024/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level low initially in the northern Plains will shift eastward into the Upper Midwest and intensify today. Strong low to mid-level winds will continue across portions of the central Plains as an associated surface low deepens in the Lower Great Lakes region. ...Central Plains... Temperatures will again be rather cool (mid/upper 40s F appear most probable). However, strong surface winds of 15-25 mph (with higher gusts) are likely across parts of eastern Wyoming into adjacent South Dakota and western Nebraska. RH will also fall to near 20% given the very dry airmass. Some fire weather concern could develop in fine fuels. Some weakening of the pressure gradient is expected by late afternoon which will limit the duration of the threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more