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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Hurricane Francine will pose a tornado threat through tonight across the middle Gulf Coast region. ...20z Update... The forecast remains on track with no changes needed to the current D1 Outlook. Hurricane Francine continues to move northeastward, with an increasing threat for tornadoes expected across southern Louisiana shifting into southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida panhandle this evening. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024/ ...Gulf Coast - Hurricane Francine... Hurricane Francine will continue to generally move northeastward toward the southern Louisiana coast. Reference NHC for the latest forecast track and intensity details. As Francine approaches the coast later this afternoon into evening, a considerable strengthening of east-southeasterly winds on its east-northeast periphery will lead to an increasing near-shore/inland supercell risk. This will be in tandem with a northward shift of a maritime warm front and associated moisture-rich air, which will tend to stay with about 50-75 miles within the Gulf Coast spanning southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The supercell/tornado risk is expected to steadily increase this afternoon across southeast Louisiana, transitioning northeastward toward southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into this evening and overnight, with a few tornadoes possible regionally. ...Northern Rockies and northern High Plains... High-based thunderstorms are expected to pose an isolated severe risk late this afternoon into evening, with severe-caliber wind gusts a possibility, along with some hail possible as well across the northern Rockies including parts of Idaho and western Montana. This is influenced by the lead portion of a Pacific Northwest upper-level trough, with preceding height falls and the exit region of the upper jet overspreading the northern Rockies and northern High Plains through tonight. Thunderstorms should increase in coverage/intensity by late afternoon, especially from far southeast Oregon into southern Idaho, southern Montana and northwest Wyoming. Around 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE coincident with 25-35 kt of effective shear will support clusters and bands of storms capable of hail and stronger wind gusts. Additional widely scattered storms are expected across the northern High Plains within a modestly moist environment. Dry sub-cloud layers will support the potential for stronger downdrafts and the possibility of some severe-caliber wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Hurricane Francine will pose a tornado threat through tonight across the middle Gulf Coast region. ...20z Update... The forecast remains on track with no changes needed to the current D1 Outlook. Hurricane Francine continues to move northeastward, with an increasing threat for tornadoes expected across southern Louisiana shifting into southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida panhandle this evening. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024/ ...Gulf Coast - Hurricane Francine... Hurricane Francine will continue to generally move northeastward toward the southern Louisiana coast. Reference NHC for the latest forecast track and intensity details. As Francine approaches the coast later this afternoon into evening, a considerable strengthening of east-southeasterly winds on its east-northeast periphery will lead to an increasing near-shore/inland supercell risk. This will be in tandem with a northward shift of a maritime warm front and associated moisture-rich air, which will tend to stay with about 50-75 miles within the Gulf Coast spanning southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The supercell/tornado risk is expected to steadily increase this afternoon across southeast Louisiana, transitioning northeastward toward southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into this evening and overnight, with a few tornadoes possible regionally. ...Northern Rockies and northern High Plains... High-based thunderstorms are expected to pose an isolated severe risk late this afternoon into evening, with severe-caliber wind gusts a possibility, along with some hail possible as well across the northern Rockies including parts of Idaho and western Montana. This is influenced by the lead portion of a Pacific Northwest upper-level trough, with preceding height falls and the exit region of the upper jet overspreading the northern Rockies and northern High Plains through tonight. Thunderstorms should increase in coverage/intensity by late afternoon, especially from far southeast Oregon into southern Idaho, southern Montana and northwest Wyoming. Around 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE coincident with 25-35 kt of effective shear will support clusters and bands of storms capable of hail and stronger wind gusts. Additional widely scattered storms are expected across the northern High Plains within a modestly moist environment. Dry sub-cloud layers will support the potential for stronger downdrafts and the possibility of some severe-caliber wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Hurricane Francine will pose a tornado threat through tonight across the middle Gulf Coast region. ...20z Update... The forecast remains on track with no changes needed to the current D1 Outlook. Hurricane Francine continues to move northeastward, with an increasing threat for tornadoes expected across southern Louisiana shifting into southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida panhandle this evening. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024/ ...Gulf Coast - Hurricane Francine... Hurricane Francine will continue to generally move northeastward toward the southern Louisiana coast. Reference NHC for the latest forecast track and intensity details. As Francine approaches the coast later this afternoon into evening, a considerable strengthening of east-southeasterly winds on its east-northeast periphery will lead to an increasing near-shore/inland supercell risk. This will be in tandem with a northward shift of a maritime warm front and associated moisture-rich air, which will tend to stay with about 50-75 miles within the Gulf Coast spanning southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The supercell/tornado risk is expected to steadily increase this afternoon across southeast Louisiana, transitioning northeastward toward southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into this evening and overnight, with a few tornadoes possible regionally. ...Northern Rockies and northern High Plains... High-based thunderstorms are expected to pose an isolated severe risk late this afternoon into evening, with severe-caliber wind gusts a possibility, along with some hail possible as well across the northern Rockies including parts of Idaho and western Montana. This is influenced by the lead portion of a Pacific Northwest upper-level trough, with preceding height falls and the exit region of the upper jet overspreading the northern Rockies and northern High Plains through tonight. Thunderstorms should increase in coverage/intensity by late afternoon, especially from far southeast Oregon into southern Idaho, southern Montana and northwest Wyoming. Around 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE coincident with 25-35 kt of effective shear will support clusters and bands of storms capable of hail and stronger wind gusts. Additional widely scattered storms are expected across the northern High Plains within a modestly moist environment. Dry sub-cloud layers will support the potential for stronger downdrafts and the possibility of some severe-caliber wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Hurricane Francine will pose a tornado threat through tonight across the middle Gulf Coast region. ...20z Update... The forecast remains on track with no changes needed to the current D1 Outlook. Hurricane Francine continues to move northeastward, with an increasing threat for tornadoes expected across southern Louisiana shifting into southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida panhandle this evening. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024/ ...Gulf Coast - Hurricane Francine... Hurricane Francine will continue to generally move northeastward toward the southern Louisiana coast. Reference NHC for the latest forecast track and intensity details. As Francine approaches the coast later this afternoon into evening, a considerable strengthening of east-southeasterly winds on its east-northeast periphery will lead to an increasing near-shore/inland supercell risk. This will be in tandem with a northward shift of a maritime warm front and associated moisture-rich air, which will tend to stay with about 50-75 miles within the Gulf Coast spanning southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The supercell/tornado risk is expected to steadily increase this afternoon across southeast Louisiana, transitioning northeastward toward southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into this evening and overnight, with a few tornadoes possible regionally. ...Northern Rockies and northern High Plains... High-based thunderstorms are expected to pose an isolated severe risk late this afternoon into evening, with severe-caliber wind gusts a possibility, along with some hail possible as well across the northern Rockies including parts of Idaho and western Montana. This is influenced by the lead portion of a Pacific Northwest upper-level trough, with preceding height falls and the exit region of the upper jet overspreading the northern Rockies and northern High Plains through tonight. Thunderstorms should increase in coverage/intensity by late afternoon, especially from far southeast Oregon into southern Idaho, southern Montana and northwest Wyoming. Around 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE coincident with 25-35 kt of effective shear will support clusters and bands of storms capable of hail and stronger wind gusts. Additional widely scattered storms are expected across the northern High Plains within a modestly moist environment. Dry sub-cloud layers will support the potential for stronger downdrafts and the possibility of some severe-caliber wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Hurricane Francine will pose a tornado threat through tonight across the middle Gulf Coast region. ...20z Update... The forecast remains on track with no changes needed to the current D1 Outlook. Hurricane Francine continues to move northeastward, with an increasing threat for tornadoes expected across southern Louisiana shifting into southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida panhandle this evening. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024/ ...Gulf Coast - Hurricane Francine... Hurricane Francine will continue to generally move northeastward toward the southern Louisiana coast. Reference NHC for the latest forecast track and intensity details. As Francine approaches the coast later this afternoon into evening, a considerable strengthening of east-southeasterly winds on its east-northeast periphery will lead to an increasing near-shore/inland supercell risk. This will be in tandem with a northward shift of a maritime warm front and associated moisture-rich air, which will tend to stay with about 50-75 miles within the Gulf Coast spanning southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The supercell/tornado risk is expected to steadily increase this afternoon across southeast Louisiana, transitioning northeastward toward southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into this evening and overnight, with a few tornadoes possible regionally. ...Northern Rockies and northern High Plains... High-based thunderstorms are expected to pose an isolated severe risk late this afternoon into evening, with severe-caliber wind gusts a possibility, along with some hail possible as well across the northern Rockies including parts of Idaho and western Montana. This is influenced by the lead portion of a Pacific Northwest upper-level trough, with preceding height falls and the exit region of the upper jet overspreading the northern Rockies and northern High Plains through tonight. Thunderstorms should increase in coverage/intensity by late afternoon, especially from far southeast Oregon into southern Idaho, southern Montana and northwest Wyoming. Around 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE coincident with 25-35 kt of effective shear will support clusters and bands of storms capable of hail and stronger wind gusts. Additional widely scattered storms are expected across the northern High Plains within a modestly moist environment. Dry sub-cloud layers will support the potential for stronger downdrafts and the possibility of some severe-caliber wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Hurricane Francine will pose a tornado threat through tonight across the middle Gulf Coast region. ...20z Update... The forecast remains on track with no changes needed to the current D1 Outlook. Hurricane Francine continues to move northeastward, with an increasing threat for tornadoes expected across southern Louisiana shifting into southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida panhandle this evening. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024/ ...Gulf Coast - Hurricane Francine... Hurricane Francine will continue to generally move northeastward toward the southern Louisiana coast. Reference NHC for the latest forecast track and intensity details. As Francine approaches the coast later this afternoon into evening, a considerable strengthening of east-southeasterly winds on its east-northeast periphery will lead to an increasing near-shore/inland supercell risk. This will be in tandem with a northward shift of a maritime warm front and associated moisture-rich air, which will tend to stay with about 50-75 miles within the Gulf Coast spanning southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The supercell/tornado risk is expected to steadily increase this afternoon across southeast Louisiana, transitioning northeastward toward southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into this evening and overnight, with a few tornadoes possible regionally. ...Northern Rockies and northern High Plains... High-based thunderstorms are expected to pose an isolated severe risk late this afternoon into evening, with severe-caliber wind gusts a possibility, along with some hail possible as well across the northern Rockies including parts of Idaho and western Montana. This is influenced by the lead portion of a Pacific Northwest upper-level trough, with preceding height falls and the exit region of the upper jet overspreading the northern Rockies and northern High Plains through tonight. Thunderstorms should increase in coverage/intensity by late afternoon, especially from far southeast Oregon into southern Idaho, southern Montana and northwest Wyoming. Around 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE coincident with 25-35 kt of effective shear will support clusters and bands of storms capable of hail and stronger wind gusts. Additional widely scattered storms are expected across the northern High Plains within a modestly moist environment. Dry sub-cloud layers will support the potential for stronger downdrafts and the possibility of some severe-caliber wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Hurricane Francine will pose a tornado threat through tonight across the middle Gulf Coast region. ...20z Update... The forecast remains on track with no changes needed to the current D1 Outlook. Hurricane Francine continues to move northeastward, with an increasing threat for tornadoes expected across southern Louisiana shifting into southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida panhandle this evening. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024/ ...Gulf Coast - Hurricane Francine... Hurricane Francine will continue to generally move northeastward toward the southern Louisiana coast. Reference NHC for the latest forecast track and intensity details. As Francine approaches the coast later this afternoon into evening, a considerable strengthening of east-southeasterly winds on its east-northeast periphery will lead to an increasing near-shore/inland supercell risk. This will be in tandem with a northward shift of a maritime warm front and associated moisture-rich air, which will tend to stay with about 50-75 miles within the Gulf Coast spanning southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The supercell/tornado risk is expected to steadily increase this afternoon across southeast Louisiana, transitioning northeastward toward southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into this evening and overnight, with a few tornadoes possible regionally. ...Northern Rockies and northern High Plains... High-based thunderstorms are expected to pose an isolated severe risk late this afternoon into evening, with severe-caliber wind gusts a possibility, along with some hail possible as well across the northern Rockies including parts of Idaho and western Montana. This is influenced by the lead portion of a Pacific Northwest upper-level trough, with preceding height falls and the exit region of the upper jet overspreading the northern Rockies and northern High Plains through tonight. Thunderstorms should increase in coverage/intensity by late afternoon, especially from far southeast Oregon into southern Idaho, southern Montana and northwest Wyoming. Around 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE coincident with 25-35 kt of effective shear will support clusters and bands of storms capable of hail and stronger wind gusts. Additional widely scattered storms are expected across the northern High Plains within a modestly moist environment. Dry sub-cloud layers will support the potential for stronger downdrafts and the possibility of some severe-caliber wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Hurricane Francine will pose a tornado threat through tonight across the middle Gulf Coast region. ...20z Update... The forecast remains on track with no changes needed to the current D1 Outlook. Hurricane Francine continues to move northeastward, with an increasing threat for tornadoes expected across southern Louisiana shifting into southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida panhandle this evening. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024/ ...Gulf Coast - Hurricane Francine... Hurricane Francine will continue to generally move northeastward toward the southern Louisiana coast. Reference NHC for the latest forecast track and intensity details. As Francine approaches the coast later this afternoon into evening, a considerable strengthening of east-southeasterly winds on its east-northeast periphery will lead to an increasing near-shore/inland supercell risk. This will be in tandem with a northward shift of a maritime warm front and associated moisture-rich air, which will tend to stay with about 50-75 miles within the Gulf Coast spanning southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The supercell/tornado risk is expected to steadily increase this afternoon across southeast Louisiana, transitioning northeastward toward southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into this evening and overnight, with a few tornadoes possible regionally. ...Northern Rockies and northern High Plains... High-based thunderstorms are expected to pose an isolated severe risk late this afternoon into evening, with severe-caliber wind gusts a possibility, along with some hail possible as well across the northern Rockies including parts of Idaho and western Montana. This is influenced by the lead portion of a Pacific Northwest upper-level trough, with preceding height falls and the exit region of the upper jet overspreading the northern Rockies and northern High Plains through tonight. Thunderstorms should increase in coverage/intensity by late afternoon, especially from far southeast Oregon into southern Idaho, southern Montana and northwest Wyoming. Around 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE coincident with 25-35 kt of effective shear will support clusters and bands of storms capable of hail and stronger wind gusts. Additional widely scattered storms are expected across the northern High Plains within a modestly moist environment. Dry sub-cloud layers will support the potential for stronger downdrafts and the possibility of some severe-caliber wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Hurricane Francine will pose a tornado threat through tonight across the middle Gulf Coast region. ...20z Update... The forecast remains on track with no changes needed to the current D1 Outlook. Hurricane Francine continues to move northeastward, with an increasing threat for tornadoes expected across southern Louisiana shifting into southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida panhandle this evening. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024/ ...Gulf Coast - Hurricane Francine... Hurricane Francine will continue to generally move northeastward toward the southern Louisiana coast. Reference NHC for the latest forecast track and intensity details. As Francine approaches the coast later this afternoon into evening, a considerable strengthening of east-southeasterly winds on its east-northeast periphery will lead to an increasing near-shore/inland supercell risk. This will be in tandem with a northward shift of a maritime warm front and associated moisture-rich air, which will tend to stay with about 50-75 miles within the Gulf Coast spanning southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The supercell/tornado risk is expected to steadily increase this afternoon across southeast Louisiana, transitioning northeastward toward southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into this evening and overnight, with a few tornadoes possible regionally. ...Northern Rockies and northern High Plains... High-based thunderstorms are expected to pose an isolated severe risk late this afternoon into evening, with severe-caliber wind gusts a possibility, along with some hail possible as well across the northern Rockies including parts of Idaho and western Montana. This is influenced by the lead portion of a Pacific Northwest upper-level trough, with preceding height falls and the exit region of the upper jet overspreading the northern Rockies and northern High Plains through tonight. Thunderstorms should increase in coverage/intensity by late afternoon, especially from far southeast Oregon into southern Idaho, southern Montana and northwest Wyoming. Around 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE coincident with 25-35 kt of effective shear will support clusters and bands of storms capable of hail and stronger wind gusts. Additional widely scattered storms are expected across the northern High Plains within a modestly moist environment. Dry sub-cloud layers will support the potential for stronger downdrafts and the possibility of some severe-caliber wind gusts. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the Southeast on Friday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will de-amplify as it moves into the Canadian Prairies on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move across the northern/central Plains. The remnants of Hurricane Francine will likely be extratropical and vertically stacked, somewhere near eastern Arkansas Friday morning. This system will slowly drift east through the day Friday. ...Southeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow will be persistent south and southeast of a mid-level closed-low in the Tennessee Valley which will overspread moderate shear across a moist and moderately unstable surface airmass across eastern Alabama and western Georgia. 850mb flow will be quite weak and thus, low-level shear and the tornado threat will likely be somewhat limited. However, 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear of 30 to 40 knots will support isolated stronger storms capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Central and Northern High Plains... Some forced convection may develop along a cold front as it moves through the northern Plains on Friday. However, limited moisture and instability should mitigate the severe weather threat with this activity. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the Southeast on Friday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will de-amplify as it moves into the Canadian Prairies on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move across the northern/central Plains. The remnants of Hurricane Francine will likely be extratropical and vertically stacked, somewhere near eastern Arkansas Friday morning. This system will slowly drift east through the day Friday. ...Southeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow will be persistent south and southeast of a mid-level closed-low in the Tennessee Valley which will overspread moderate shear across a moist and moderately unstable surface airmass across eastern Alabama and western Georgia. 850mb flow will be quite weak and thus, low-level shear and the tornado threat will likely be somewhat limited. However, 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear of 30 to 40 knots will support isolated stronger storms capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Central and Northern High Plains... Some forced convection may develop along a cold front as it moves through the northern Plains on Friday. However, limited moisture and instability should mitigate the severe weather threat with this activity. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the Southeast on Friday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will de-amplify as it moves into the Canadian Prairies on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move across the northern/central Plains. The remnants of Hurricane Francine will likely be extratropical and vertically stacked, somewhere near eastern Arkansas Friday morning. This system will slowly drift east through the day Friday. ...Southeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow will be persistent south and southeast of a mid-level closed-low in the Tennessee Valley which will overspread moderate shear across a moist and moderately unstable surface airmass across eastern Alabama and western Georgia. 850mb flow will be quite weak and thus, low-level shear and the tornado threat will likely be somewhat limited. However, 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear of 30 to 40 knots will support isolated stronger storms capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Central and Northern High Plains... Some forced convection may develop along a cold front as it moves through the northern Plains on Friday. However, limited moisture and instability should mitigate the severe weather threat with this activity. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the Southeast on Friday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will de-amplify as it moves into the Canadian Prairies on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move across the northern/central Plains. The remnants of Hurricane Francine will likely be extratropical and vertically stacked, somewhere near eastern Arkansas Friday morning. This system will slowly drift east through the day Friday. ...Southeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow will be persistent south and southeast of a mid-level closed-low in the Tennessee Valley which will overspread moderate shear across a moist and moderately unstable surface airmass across eastern Alabama and western Georgia. 850mb flow will be quite weak and thus, low-level shear and the tornado threat will likely be somewhat limited. However, 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear of 30 to 40 knots will support isolated stronger storms capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Central and Northern High Plains... Some forced convection may develop along a cold front as it moves through the northern Plains on Friday. However, limited moisture and instability should mitigate the severe weather threat with this activity. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the Southeast on Friday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will de-amplify as it moves into the Canadian Prairies on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move across the northern/central Plains. The remnants of Hurricane Francine will likely be extratropical and vertically stacked, somewhere near eastern Arkansas Friday morning. This system will slowly drift east through the day Friday. ...Southeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow will be persistent south and southeast of a mid-level closed-low in the Tennessee Valley which will overspread moderate shear across a moist and moderately unstable surface airmass across eastern Alabama and western Georgia. 850mb flow will be quite weak and thus, low-level shear and the tornado threat will likely be somewhat limited. However, 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear of 30 to 40 knots will support isolated stronger storms capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Central and Northern High Plains... Some forced convection may develop along a cold front as it moves through the northern Plains on Friday. However, limited moisture and instability should mitigate the severe weather threat with this activity. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the Southeast on Friday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will de-amplify as it moves into the Canadian Prairies on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move across the northern/central Plains. The remnants of Hurricane Francine will likely be extratropical and vertically stacked, somewhere near eastern Arkansas Friday morning. This system will slowly drift east through the day Friday. ...Southeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow will be persistent south and southeast of a mid-level closed-low in the Tennessee Valley which will overspread moderate shear across a moist and moderately unstable surface airmass across eastern Alabama and western Georgia. 850mb flow will be quite weak and thus, low-level shear and the tornado threat will likely be somewhat limited. However, 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear of 30 to 40 knots will support isolated stronger storms capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Central and Northern High Plains... Some forced convection may develop along a cold front as it moves through the northern Plains on Friday. However, limited moisture and instability should mitigate the severe weather threat with this activity. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the Southeast on Friday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will de-amplify as it moves into the Canadian Prairies on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move across the northern/central Plains. The remnants of Hurricane Francine will likely be extratropical and vertically stacked, somewhere near eastern Arkansas Friday morning. This system will slowly drift east through the day Friday. ...Southeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow will be persistent south and southeast of a mid-level closed-low in the Tennessee Valley which will overspread moderate shear across a moist and moderately unstable surface airmass across eastern Alabama and western Georgia. 850mb flow will be quite weak and thus, low-level shear and the tornado threat will likely be somewhat limited. However, 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear of 30 to 40 knots will support isolated stronger storms capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Central and Northern High Plains... Some forced convection may develop along a cold front as it moves through the northern Plains on Friday. However, limited moisture and instability should mitigate the severe weather threat with this activity. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the Southeast on Friday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will de-amplify as it moves into the Canadian Prairies on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move across the northern/central Plains. The remnants of Hurricane Francine will likely be extratropical and vertically stacked, somewhere near eastern Arkansas Friday morning. This system will slowly drift east through the day Friday. ...Southeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow will be persistent south and southeast of a mid-level closed-low in the Tennessee Valley which will overspread moderate shear across a moist and moderately unstable surface airmass across eastern Alabama and western Georgia. 850mb flow will be quite weak and thus, low-level shear and the tornado threat will likely be somewhat limited. However, 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear of 30 to 40 knots will support isolated stronger storms capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Central and Northern High Plains... Some forced convection may develop along a cold front as it moves through the northern Plains on Friday. However, limited moisture and instability should mitigate the severe weather threat with this activity. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across portions of the Southeast on Friday. ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will de-amplify as it moves into the Canadian Prairies on Friday. At the surface, a cold front will move across the northern/central Plains. The remnants of Hurricane Francine will likely be extratropical and vertically stacked, somewhere near eastern Arkansas Friday morning. This system will slowly drift east through the day Friday. ...Southeast... A belt of stronger mid-level flow will be persistent south and southeast of a mid-level closed-low in the Tennessee Valley which will overspread moderate shear across a moist and moderately unstable surface airmass across eastern Alabama and western Georgia. 850mb flow will be quite weak and thus, low-level shear and the tornado threat will likely be somewhat limited. However, 1500 to 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and effective shear of 30 to 40 knots will support isolated stronger storms capable of damaging wind gusts. ...Central and Northern High Plains... Some forced convection may develop along a cold front as it moves through the northern Plains on Friday. However, limited moisture and instability should mitigate the severe weather threat with this activity. ..Bentley.. 09/11/2024 Read more

WW 0667 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 667 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SQUITIERI..09/11/24 ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 667 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-045-047-051-057-063-071-075-087-089-093-095-099-101- 103-105-109-117-112040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION IBERIA IBERVILLE JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. MARTIN ST. MARY ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA TERREBONNE WASHINGTON MSC045-047-059-109-112040- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON PEARL RIVER GMZ435-436-455-530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575- 577-632-650-670-112040- Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MUCH OF THE CENTRAL INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS... The forecast remains unchanged. Strong surface winds are still expected into eastern portions of the Dakotas into eastern Nebraska. Fuel receptiveness and RH trends will continue to be monitored in these areas, but current guidance continues to suggest lesser concerns with eastern extent. ..Wendt.. 09/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0205 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level troughing will continue to intensify as it crosses the Intermountain West and overspreads the northern/central Rockies Thursday. Strong flow aloft will approach the central High Plains as a lee low quickly deepens. A surface lee trough will trail south from the developing low, enhancing southerly winds over much of the Plains. With dry conditions in place, critical fire-weather concerns are likely. ...Central High Plains... Southerly surface winds will begin to increase overnight D1/Wednesday and into early D2/Thursday as upper-level forcing approaches from the west. Winds should continue to intensify through the day as the lee trough/low deepen considerably. South/southwesterly gusts of 20-30 mph are possible along with RH values below 25%. RH will be less favorable farther east, though winds will still be strong. Area fine fuels are dry, but should dry further over the next 24-36 hours, reaching critical levels. With the potent combination of strong winds and low RH likely over several hours D2/Thursday, widespread elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely. ...Intermountain West... Across parts of western CO/WY, strong southwesterly winds are expected ahead of the cold front moving out of the eastern Great Basin. Aided by the strong flow aloft, wind gusts of 25-30 mph are likely. Dry southwesterly flow and warm temperatures will support afternoon RH values below 20%. Meteorological conditions are quite conducive to fire spread. However, area fuels are much less favorable after recent rainfall. Given the magnitude of the wind and relatively dry conditions, several hours of elevated to near-critical fire-weather conditions still appear likely before the front passes through. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more