Aggregator

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of north Texas into central Oklahoma Monday morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted and pronounced mid-level trough over the southern Plains will quickly eject into the MS Valley in tandem with a rapidly deepening surface low tomorrow (Monday). A potentially severe squall line is expected to be ongoing at the start of the period across north TX into central OK. Through the afternoon though, stronger upper support should become increasingly displaced from the better low-level moisture and instability to the south, supporting a more isolated severe threat across portions of the MO Valley into the southern MS Valley later in the day toward evening. An additional round of isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorms may also develop closer to the surface low over central and eastern KS tomorrow afternoon as well. ...Southern Plains into the MO Valley... A QLCS/squall-line should be in progress immediately ahead of a surface low across southwestern OK into northwestern TX at 12Z Monday morning. The squall line will continue to move east-northeast with the surface low amid a 70+ kt southerly low-level jet, overspread by 70-90 kts of southwesterly 500 mb flow from the ejecting trough. Large and curved hodographs should precede the squall line amid 500 J/kg SBCAPE, driven mainly by mid 60s F surface dewpoints beneath poor mid-level lapse rates. Despite meager buoyancy through the troposphere, strong forcing for ascent and impressive deep-layer/low-level shear profiles may still support severe gusts and a few tornadoes during the morning hours. Through the afternoon and evening hours, QG ascent associated with the northeastward ejecting mid-level trough, and the surface low, will outpace the richer low-level moisture closer to the Red River, which may dampen the severe threat to a degree. Nonetheless, the persistence of strong shear and forcing with the eastward-tracking squall line will support the potential for a severe gust or a tornado. ...Southeast TX into the Lower MS Valley... As the mid-level trough and surface cyclone track toward the Mid-MS Valley through the day, trailing portions of the aforementioned squall line will interact with an increasingly moist and unstable boundary layer across southeastern TX into the Lower MS Valley. Furthermore, guidance consensus shows that the entrance region of the low-level jet may also persist across eastern TX and points east ahead of the squall line, encouraging modestly elongated and curved hodographs and 200+ m2/s2 0-3 km SRH. As such, a couple of severe gusts and perhaps a tornado or two may develop if more pronounced mesovortices or embedded supercell structures can develop within the squall line. ...Central and eastern KS... Behind the initial squall line and broader cloudy/precipitation-laden WAA regime, some clearing may take place immediately ahead of the surface low track, allowing for marginal boundary-layer destabilization. As such, a couple of thunderstorms may develop ahead of the surface low amid modestly steep tropospheric lapse rates and unidirectional vertical wind profiles/strong speed shear. Any of the more robust updrafts that can develop may produce a severe gust, tornado, or instance of marginally severe hail during the afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 11/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of north Texas into central Oklahoma Monday morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted and pronounced mid-level trough over the southern Plains will quickly eject into the MS Valley in tandem with a rapidly deepening surface low tomorrow (Monday). A potentially severe squall line is expected to be ongoing at the start of the period across north TX into central OK. Through the afternoon though, stronger upper support should become increasingly displaced from the better low-level moisture and instability to the south, supporting a more isolated severe threat across portions of the MO Valley into the southern MS Valley later in the day toward evening. An additional round of isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorms may also develop closer to the surface low over central and eastern KS tomorrow afternoon as well. ...Southern Plains into the MO Valley... A QLCS/squall-line should be in progress immediately ahead of a surface low across southwestern OK into northwestern TX at 12Z Monday morning. The squall line will continue to move east-northeast with the surface low amid a 70+ kt southerly low-level jet, overspread by 70-90 kts of southwesterly 500 mb flow from the ejecting trough. Large and curved hodographs should precede the squall line amid 500 J/kg SBCAPE, driven mainly by mid 60s F surface dewpoints beneath poor mid-level lapse rates. Despite meager buoyancy through the troposphere, strong forcing for ascent and impressive deep-layer/low-level shear profiles may still support severe gusts and a few tornadoes during the morning hours. Through the afternoon and evening hours, QG ascent associated with the northeastward ejecting mid-level trough, and the surface low, will outpace the richer low-level moisture closer to the Red River, which may dampen the severe threat to a degree. Nonetheless, the persistence of strong shear and forcing with the eastward-tracking squall line will support the potential for a severe gust or a tornado. ...Southeast TX into the Lower MS Valley... As the mid-level trough and surface cyclone track toward the Mid-MS Valley through the day, trailing portions of the aforementioned squall line will interact with an increasingly moist and unstable boundary layer across southeastern TX into the Lower MS Valley. Furthermore, guidance consensus shows that the entrance region of the low-level jet may also persist across eastern TX and points east ahead of the squall line, encouraging modestly elongated and curved hodographs and 200+ m2/s2 0-3 km SRH. As such, a couple of severe gusts and perhaps a tornado or two may develop if more pronounced mesovortices or embedded supercell structures can develop within the squall line. ...Central and eastern KS... Behind the initial squall line and broader cloudy/precipitation-laden WAA regime, some clearing may take place immediately ahead of the surface low track, allowing for marginal boundary-layer destabilization. As such, a couple of thunderstorms may develop ahead of the surface low amid modestly steep tropospheric lapse rates and unidirectional vertical wind profiles/strong speed shear. Any of the more robust updrafts that can develop may produce a severe gust, tornado, or instance of marginally severe hail during the afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 11/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of north Texas into central Oklahoma Monday morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted and pronounced mid-level trough over the southern Plains will quickly eject into the MS Valley in tandem with a rapidly deepening surface low tomorrow (Monday). A potentially severe squall line is expected to be ongoing at the start of the period across north TX into central OK. Through the afternoon though, stronger upper support should become increasingly displaced from the better low-level moisture and instability to the south, supporting a more isolated severe threat across portions of the MO Valley into the southern MS Valley later in the day toward evening. An additional round of isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorms may also develop closer to the surface low over central and eastern KS tomorrow afternoon as well. ...Southern Plains into the MO Valley... A QLCS/squall-line should be in progress immediately ahead of a surface low across southwestern OK into northwestern TX at 12Z Monday morning. The squall line will continue to move east-northeast with the surface low amid a 70+ kt southerly low-level jet, overspread by 70-90 kts of southwesterly 500 mb flow from the ejecting trough. Large and curved hodographs should precede the squall line amid 500 J/kg SBCAPE, driven mainly by mid 60s F surface dewpoints beneath poor mid-level lapse rates. Despite meager buoyancy through the troposphere, strong forcing for ascent and impressive deep-layer/low-level shear profiles may still support severe gusts and a few tornadoes during the morning hours. Through the afternoon and evening hours, QG ascent associated with the northeastward ejecting mid-level trough, and the surface low, will outpace the richer low-level moisture closer to the Red River, which may dampen the severe threat to a degree. Nonetheless, the persistence of strong shear and forcing with the eastward-tracking squall line will support the potential for a severe gust or a tornado. ...Southeast TX into the Lower MS Valley... As the mid-level trough and surface cyclone track toward the Mid-MS Valley through the day, trailing portions of the aforementioned squall line will interact with an increasingly moist and unstable boundary layer across southeastern TX into the Lower MS Valley. Furthermore, guidance consensus shows that the entrance region of the low-level jet may also persist across eastern TX and points east ahead of the squall line, encouraging modestly elongated and curved hodographs and 200+ m2/s2 0-3 km SRH. As such, a couple of severe gusts and perhaps a tornado or two may develop if more pronounced mesovortices or embedded supercell structures can develop within the squall line. ...Central and eastern KS... Behind the initial squall line and broader cloudy/precipitation-laden WAA regime, some clearing may take place immediately ahead of the surface low track, allowing for marginal boundary-layer destabilization. As such, a couple of thunderstorms may develop ahead of the surface low amid modestly steep tropospheric lapse rates and unidirectional vertical wind profiles/strong speed shear. Any of the more robust updrafts that can develop may produce a severe gust, tornado, or instance of marginally severe hail during the afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 11/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of north Texas into central Oklahoma Monday morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted and pronounced mid-level trough over the southern Plains will quickly eject into the MS Valley in tandem with a rapidly deepening surface low tomorrow (Monday). A potentially severe squall line is expected to be ongoing at the start of the period across north TX into central OK. Through the afternoon though, stronger upper support should become increasingly displaced from the better low-level moisture and instability to the south, supporting a more isolated severe threat across portions of the MO Valley into the southern MS Valley later in the day toward evening. An additional round of isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorms may also develop closer to the surface low over central and eastern KS tomorrow afternoon as well. ...Southern Plains into the MO Valley... A QLCS/squall-line should be in progress immediately ahead of a surface low across southwestern OK into northwestern TX at 12Z Monday morning. The squall line will continue to move east-northeast with the surface low amid a 70+ kt southerly low-level jet, overspread by 70-90 kts of southwesterly 500 mb flow from the ejecting trough. Large and curved hodographs should precede the squall line amid 500 J/kg SBCAPE, driven mainly by mid 60s F surface dewpoints beneath poor mid-level lapse rates. Despite meager buoyancy through the troposphere, strong forcing for ascent and impressive deep-layer/low-level shear profiles may still support severe gusts and a few tornadoes during the morning hours. Through the afternoon and evening hours, QG ascent associated with the northeastward ejecting mid-level trough, and the surface low, will outpace the richer low-level moisture closer to the Red River, which may dampen the severe threat to a degree. Nonetheless, the persistence of strong shear and forcing with the eastward-tracking squall line will support the potential for a severe gust or a tornado. ...Southeast TX into the Lower MS Valley... As the mid-level trough and surface cyclone track toward the Mid-MS Valley through the day, trailing portions of the aforementioned squall line will interact with an increasingly moist and unstable boundary layer across southeastern TX into the Lower MS Valley. Furthermore, guidance consensus shows that the entrance region of the low-level jet may also persist across eastern TX and points east ahead of the squall line, encouraging modestly elongated and curved hodographs and 200+ m2/s2 0-3 km SRH. As such, a couple of severe gusts and perhaps a tornado or two may develop if more pronounced mesovortices or embedded supercell structures can develop within the squall line. ...Central and eastern KS... Behind the initial squall line and broader cloudy/precipitation-laden WAA regime, some clearing may take place immediately ahead of the surface low track, allowing for marginal boundary-layer destabilization. As such, a couple of thunderstorms may develop ahead of the surface low amid modestly steep tropospheric lapse rates and unidirectional vertical wind profiles/strong speed shear. Any of the more robust updrafts that can develop may produce a severe gust, tornado, or instance of marginally severe hail during the afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 11/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of north Texas into central Oklahoma Monday morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted and pronounced mid-level trough over the southern Plains will quickly eject into the MS Valley in tandem with a rapidly deepening surface low tomorrow (Monday). A potentially severe squall line is expected to be ongoing at the start of the period across north TX into central OK. Through the afternoon though, stronger upper support should become increasingly displaced from the better low-level moisture and instability to the south, supporting a more isolated severe threat across portions of the MO Valley into the southern MS Valley later in the day toward evening. An additional round of isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorms may also develop closer to the surface low over central and eastern KS tomorrow afternoon as well. ...Southern Plains into the MO Valley... A QLCS/squall-line should be in progress immediately ahead of a surface low across southwestern OK into northwestern TX at 12Z Monday morning. The squall line will continue to move east-northeast with the surface low amid a 70+ kt southerly low-level jet, overspread by 70-90 kts of southwesterly 500 mb flow from the ejecting trough. Large and curved hodographs should precede the squall line amid 500 J/kg SBCAPE, driven mainly by mid 60s F surface dewpoints beneath poor mid-level lapse rates. Despite meager buoyancy through the troposphere, strong forcing for ascent and impressive deep-layer/low-level shear profiles may still support severe gusts and a few tornadoes during the morning hours. Through the afternoon and evening hours, QG ascent associated with the northeastward ejecting mid-level trough, and the surface low, will outpace the richer low-level moisture closer to the Red River, which may dampen the severe threat to a degree. Nonetheless, the persistence of strong shear and forcing with the eastward-tracking squall line will support the potential for a severe gust or a tornado. ...Southeast TX into the Lower MS Valley... As the mid-level trough and surface cyclone track toward the Mid-MS Valley through the day, trailing portions of the aforementioned squall line will interact with an increasingly moist and unstable boundary layer across southeastern TX into the Lower MS Valley. Furthermore, guidance consensus shows that the entrance region of the low-level jet may also persist across eastern TX and points east ahead of the squall line, encouraging modestly elongated and curved hodographs and 200+ m2/s2 0-3 km SRH. As such, a couple of severe gusts and perhaps a tornado or two may develop if more pronounced mesovortices or embedded supercell structures can develop within the squall line. ...Central and eastern KS... Behind the initial squall line and broader cloudy/precipitation-laden WAA regime, some clearing may take place immediately ahead of the surface low track, allowing for marginal boundary-layer destabilization. As such, a couple of thunderstorms may develop ahead of the surface low amid modestly steep tropospheric lapse rates and unidirectional vertical wind profiles/strong speed shear. Any of the more robust updrafts that can develop may produce a severe gust, tornado, or instance of marginally severe hail during the afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 11/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of north Texas into central Oklahoma Monday morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted and pronounced mid-level trough over the southern Plains will quickly eject into the MS Valley in tandem with a rapidly deepening surface low tomorrow (Monday). A potentially severe squall line is expected to be ongoing at the start of the period across north TX into central OK. Through the afternoon though, stronger upper support should become increasingly displaced from the better low-level moisture and instability to the south, supporting a more isolated severe threat across portions of the MO Valley into the southern MS Valley later in the day toward evening. An additional round of isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorms may also develop closer to the surface low over central and eastern KS tomorrow afternoon as well. ...Southern Plains into the MO Valley... A QLCS/squall-line should be in progress immediately ahead of a surface low across southwestern OK into northwestern TX at 12Z Monday morning. The squall line will continue to move east-northeast with the surface low amid a 70+ kt southerly low-level jet, overspread by 70-90 kts of southwesterly 500 mb flow from the ejecting trough. Large and curved hodographs should precede the squall line amid 500 J/kg SBCAPE, driven mainly by mid 60s F surface dewpoints beneath poor mid-level lapse rates. Despite meager buoyancy through the troposphere, strong forcing for ascent and impressive deep-layer/low-level shear profiles may still support severe gusts and a few tornadoes during the morning hours. Through the afternoon and evening hours, QG ascent associated with the northeastward ejecting mid-level trough, and the surface low, will outpace the richer low-level moisture closer to the Red River, which may dampen the severe threat to a degree. Nonetheless, the persistence of strong shear and forcing with the eastward-tracking squall line will support the potential for a severe gust or a tornado. ...Southeast TX into the Lower MS Valley... As the mid-level trough and surface cyclone track toward the Mid-MS Valley through the day, trailing portions of the aforementioned squall line will interact with an increasingly moist and unstable boundary layer across southeastern TX into the Lower MS Valley. Furthermore, guidance consensus shows that the entrance region of the low-level jet may also persist across eastern TX and points east ahead of the squall line, encouraging modestly elongated and curved hodographs and 200+ m2/s2 0-3 km SRH. As such, a couple of severe gusts and perhaps a tornado or two may develop if more pronounced mesovortices or embedded supercell structures can develop within the squall line. ...Central and eastern KS... Behind the initial squall line and broader cloudy/precipitation-laden WAA regime, some clearing may take place immediately ahead of the surface low track, allowing for marginal boundary-layer destabilization. As such, a couple of thunderstorms may develop ahead of the surface low amid modestly steep tropospheric lapse rates and unidirectional vertical wind profiles/strong speed shear. Any of the more robust updrafts that can develop may produce a severe gust, tornado, or instance of marginally severe hail during the afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 11/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN TEXAS INTO CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms associated with isolated severe gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of north Texas into central Oklahoma Monday morning. A marginal risk for severe gusts is expected across a relatively large area during the afternoon and evening from the eastern parts of the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks and lower Mississippi Valley. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted and pronounced mid-level trough over the southern Plains will quickly eject into the MS Valley in tandem with a rapidly deepening surface low tomorrow (Monday). A potentially severe squall line is expected to be ongoing at the start of the period across north TX into central OK. Through the afternoon though, stronger upper support should become increasingly displaced from the better low-level moisture and instability to the south, supporting a more isolated severe threat across portions of the MO Valley into the southern MS Valley later in the day toward evening. An additional round of isolated strong to potentially severe thunderstorms may also develop closer to the surface low over central and eastern KS tomorrow afternoon as well. ...Southern Plains into the MO Valley... A QLCS/squall-line should be in progress immediately ahead of a surface low across southwestern OK into northwestern TX at 12Z Monday morning. The squall line will continue to move east-northeast with the surface low amid a 70+ kt southerly low-level jet, overspread by 70-90 kts of southwesterly 500 mb flow from the ejecting trough. Large and curved hodographs should precede the squall line amid 500 J/kg SBCAPE, driven mainly by mid 60s F surface dewpoints beneath poor mid-level lapse rates. Despite meager buoyancy through the troposphere, strong forcing for ascent and impressive deep-layer/low-level shear profiles may still support severe gusts and a few tornadoes during the morning hours. Through the afternoon and evening hours, QG ascent associated with the northeastward ejecting mid-level trough, and the surface low, will outpace the richer low-level moisture closer to the Red River, which may dampen the severe threat to a degree. Nonetheless, the persistence of strong shear and forcing with the eastward-tracking squall line will support the potential for a severe gust or a tornado. ...Southeast TX into the Lower MS Valley... As the mid-level trough and surface cyclone track toward the Mid-MS Valley through the day, trailing portions of the aforementioned squall line will interact with an increasingly moist and unstable boundary layer across southeastern TX into the Lower MS Valley. Furthermore, guidance consensus shows that the entrance region of the low-level jet may also persist across eastern TX and points east ahead of the squall line, encouraging modestly elongated and curved hodographs and 200+ m2/s2 0-3 km SRH. As such, a couple of severe gusts and perhaps a tornado or two may develop if more pronounced mesovortices or embedded supercell structures can develop within the squall line. ...Central and eastern KS... Behind the initial squall line and broader cloudy/precipitation-laden WAA regime, some clearing may take place immediately ahead of the surface low track, allowing for marginal boundary-layer destabilization. As such, a couple of thunderstorms may develop ahead of the surface low amid modestly steep tropospheric lapse rates and unidirectional vertical wind profiles/strong speed shear. Any of the more robust updrafts that can develop may produce a severe gust, tornado, or instance of marginally severe hail during the afternoon. ..Squitieri.. 11/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of west/northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening and continuing through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level low/trough over northwest Mexico with a downstream ridge centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A mid-level vorticity maximum near the middle part of the Gulf of California will pivot east into Chihuahua by mid evening while the larger-scale trough becomes negatively tilted and moves northeastward into the southern High Plains. In the low levels, cyclogenesis over northern Mexico will gradually evolve today before the surface low deepens tonight reaching the northwest TX/western OK vicinity at the end of the period. Seasonably moist air via southeasterly flow from the western Gulf will advect into west TX before a Pacific front sweeps eastward across the Chihuahuan Desert and portions of the southern High Plains tonight. An attendant warm frontal zone will advance northward from north TX into OK late. ...Southern Great Plains... The 12 UTC Fort Worth, TX observed sounding showed an adequately moist/deep moist layer featuring a mean mixing ratio of 12.6 g/kg. The richer low-level moisture, featuring dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s as of late morning, is currently near the I-35 corridor from the Metroplex and areas south/southeast. Moisture advection will contribute to gradual destabilization through this evening across parts of west TX northeastward into southwest OK despite considerable cloud cover through the day. As an intense 100-kt 500-mb speed max moves from Chihuahua into west TX overnight, large-scale ascent will favor the development of scattered thunderstorms initially developing near the Permian Basin vicinity and becoming more widespread as very strong low-level warm advection attendant to an intensifying LLJ develops tonight. Model guidance indicates 250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across the destabilizing warm sector. A forced band of storms will likely evolve tonight across west TX and rapidly move northeast in the area southeast of the surface low track. As the squall line matures, the propensity for severe gusts will probably increase despite relatively poor lapse given the intense flow expected to develop. It remains uncertain if cellular development will occur either ahead of the line or be loosely maintained in parts of the larger band of storms. Nonetheless, elongated and enlarged hodographs will favor a risk for scattered severe gusts and possibly a tornado risk, especially as the squall line encounters greater moisture from west-central TX northeastward into southwest OK late. ..Smith/Weinman.. 11/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of west/northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening and continuing through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level low/trough over northwest Mexico with a downstream ridge centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A mid-level vorticity maximum near the middle part of the Gulf of California will pivot east into Chihuahua by mid evening while the larger-scale trough becomes negatively tilted and moves northeastward into the southern High Plains. In the low levels, cyclogenesis over northern Mexico will gradually evolve today before the surface low deepens tonight reaching the northwest TX/western OK vicinity at the end of the period. Seasonably moist air via southeasterly flow from the western Gulf will advect into west TX before a Pacific front sweeps eastward across the Chihuahuan Desert and portions of the southern High Plains tonight. An attendant warm frontal zone will advance northward from north TX into OK late. ...Southern Great Plains... The 12 UTC Fort Worth, TX observed sounding showed an adequately moist/deep moist layer featuring a mean mixing ratio of 12.6 g/kg. The richer low-level moisture, featuring dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s as of late morning, is currently near the I-35 corridor from the Metroplex and areas south/southeast. Moisture advection will contribute to gradual destabilization through this evening across parts of west TX northeastward into southwest OK despite considerable cloud cover through the day. As an intense 100-kt 500-mb speed max moves from Chihuahua into west TX overnight, large-scale ascent will favor the development of scattered thunderstorms initially developing near the Permian Basin vicinity and becoming more widespread as very strong low-level warm advection attendant to an intensifying LLJ develops tonight. Model guidance indicates 250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across the destabilizing warm sector. A forced band of storms will likely evolve tonight across west TX and rapidly move northeast in the area southeast of the surface low track. As the squall line matures, the propensity for severe gusts will probably increase despite relatively poor lapse given the intense flow expected to develop. It remains uncertain if cellular development will occur either ahead of the line or be loosely maintained in parts of the larger band of storms. Nonetheless, elongated and enlarged hodographs will favor a risk for scattered severe gusts and possibly a tornado risk, especially as the squall line encounters greater moisture from west-central TX northeastward into southwest OK late. ..Smith/Weinman.. 11/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of west/northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening and continuing through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level low/trough over northwest Mexico with a downstream ridge centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A mid-level vorticity maximum near the middle part of the Gulf of California will pivot east into Chihuahua by mid evening while the larger-scale trough becomes negatively tilted and moves northeastward into the southern High Plains. In the low levels, cyclogenesis over northern Mexico will gradually evolve today before the surface low deepens tonight reaching the northwest TX/western OK vicinity at the end of the period. Seasonably moist air via southeasterly flow from the western Gulf will advect into west TX before a Pacific front sweeps eastward across the Chihuahuan Desert and portions of the southern High Plains tonight. An attendant warm frontal zone will advance northward from north TX into OK late. ...Southern Great Plains... The 12 UTC Fort Worth, TX observed sounding showed an adequately moist/deep moist layer featuring a mean mixing ratio of 12.6 g/kg. The richer low-level moisture, featuring dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s as of late morning, is currently near the I-35 corridor from the Metroplex and areas south/southeast. Moisture advection will contribute to gradual destabilization through this evening across parts of west TX northeastward into southwest OK despite considerable cloud cover through the day. As an intense 100-kt 500-mb speed max moves from Chihuahua into west TX overnight, large-scale ascent will favor the development of scattered thunderstorms initially developing near the Permian Basin vicinity and becoming more widespread as very strong low-level warm advection attendant to an intensifying LLJ develops tonight. Model guidance indicates 250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across the destabilizing warm sector. A forced band of storms will likely evolve tonight across west TX and rapidly move northeast in the area southeast of the surface low track. As the squall line matures, the propensity for severe gusts will probably increase despite relatively poor lapse given the intense flow expected to develop. It remains uncertain if cellular development will occur either ahead of the line or be loosely maintained in parts of the larger band of storms. Nonetheless, elongated and enlarged hodographs will favor a risk for scattered severe gusts and possibly a tornado risk, especially as the squall line encounters greater moisture from west-central TX northeastward into southwest OK late. ..Smith/Weinman.. 11/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of west/northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening and continuing through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level low/trough over northwest Mexico with a downstream ridge centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A mid-level vorticity maximum near the middle part of the Gulf of California will pivot east into Chihuahua by mid evening while the larger-scale trough becomes negatively tilted and moves northeastward into the southern High Plains. In the low levels, cyclogenesis over northern Mexico will gradually evolve today before the surface low deepens tonight reaching the northwest TX/western OK vicinity at the end of the period. Seasonably moist air via southeasterly flow from the western Gulf will advect into west TX before a Pacific front sweeps eastward across the Chihuahuan Desert and portions of the southern High Plains tonight. An attendant warm frontal zone will advance northward from north TX into OK late. ...Southern Great Plains... The 12 UTC Fort Worth, TX observed sounding showed an adequately moist/deep moist layer featuring a mean mixing ratio of 12.6 g/kg. The richer low-level moisture, featuring dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s as of late morning, is currently near the I-35 corridor from the Metroplex and areas south/southeast. Moisture advection will contribute to gradual destabilization through this evening across parts of west TX northeastward into southwest OK despite considerable cloud cover through the day. As an intense 100-kt 500-mb speed max moves from Chihuahua into west TX overnight, large-scale ascent will favor the development of scattered thunderstorms initially developing near the Permian Basin vicinity and becoming more widespread as very strong low-level warm advection attendant to an intensifying LLJ develops tonight. Model guidance indicates 250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across the destabilizing warm sector. A forced band of storms will likely evolve tonight across west TX and rapidly move northeast in the area southeast of the surface low track. As the squall line matures, the propensity for severe gusts will probably increase despite relatively poor lapse given the intense flow expected to develop. It remains uncertain if cellular development will occur either ahead of the line or be loosely maintained in parts of the larger band of storms. Nonetheless, elongated and enlarged hodographs will favor a risk for scattered severe gusts and possibly a tornado risk, especially as the squall line encounters greater moisture from west-central TX northeastward into southwest OK late. ..Smith/Weinman.. 11/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of west/northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening and continuing through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level low/trough over northwest Mexico with a downstream ridge centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A mid-level vorticity maximum near the middle part of the Gulf of California will pivot east into Chihuahua by mid evening while the larger-scale trough becomes negatively tilted and moves northeastward into the southern High Plains. In the low levels, cyclogenesis over northern Mexico will gradually evolve today before the surface low deepens tonight reaching the northwest TX/western OK vicinity at the end of the period. Seasonably moist air via southeasterly flow from the western Gulf will advect into west TX before a Pacific front sweeps eastward across the Chihuahuan Desert and portions of the southern High Plains tonight. An attendant warm frontal zone will advance northward from north TX into OK late. ...Southern Great Plains... The 12 UTC Fort Worth, TX observed sounding showed an adequately moist/deep moist layer featuring a mean mixing ratio of 12.6 g/kg. The richer low-level moisture, featuring dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s as of late morning, is currently near the I-35 corridor from the Metroplex and areas south/southeast. Moisture advection will contribute to gradual destabilization through this evening across parts of west TX northeastward into southwest OK despite considerable cloud cover through the day. As an intense 100-kt 500-mb speed max moves from Chihuahua into west TX overnight, large-scale ascent will favor the development of scattered thunderstorms initially developing near the Permian Basin vicinity and becoming more widespread as very strong low-level warm advection attendant to an intensifying LLJ develops tonight. Model guidance indicates 250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across the destabilizing warm sector. A forced band of storms will likely evolve tonight across west TX and rapidly move northeast in the area southeast of the surface low track. As the squall line matures, the propensity for severe gusts will probably increase despite relatively poor lapse given the intense flow expected to develop. It remains uncertain if cellular development will occur either ahead of the line or be loosely maintained in parts of the larger band of storms. Nonetheless, elongated and enlarged hodographs will favor a risk for scattered severe gusts and possibly a tornado risk, especially as the squall line encounters greater moisture from west-central TX northeastward into southwest OK late. ..Smith/Weinman.. 11/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of west/northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening and continuing through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level low/trough over northwest Mexico with a downstream ridge centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A mid-level vorticity maximum near the middle part of the Gulf of California will pivot east into Chihuahua by mid evening while the larger-scale trough becomes negatively tilted and moves northeastward into the southern High Plains. In the low levels, cyclogenesis over northern Mexico will gradually evolve today before the surface low deepens tonight reaching the northwest TX/western OK vicinity at the end of the period. Seasonably moist air via southeasterly flow from the western Gulf will advect into west TX before a Pacific front sweeps eastward across the Chihuahuan Desert and portions of the southern High Plains tonight. An attendant warm frontal zone will advance northward from north TX into OK late. ...Southern Great Plains... The 12 UTC Fort Worth, TX observed sounding showed an adequately moist/deep moist layer featuring a mean mixing ratio of 12.6 g/kg. The richer low-level moisture, featuring dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s as of late morning, is currently near the I-35 corridor from the Metroplex and areas south/southeast. Moisture advection will contribute to gradual destabilization through this evening across parts of west TX northeastward into southwest OK despite considerable cloud cover through the day. As an intense 100-kt 500-mb speed max moves from Chihuahua into west TX overnight, large-scale ascent will favor the development of scattered thunderstorms initially developing near the Permian Basin vicinity and becoming more widespread as very strong low-level warm advection attendant to an intensifying LLJ develops tonight. Model guidance indicates 250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across the destabilizing warm sector. A forced band of storms will likely evolve tonight across west TX and rapidly move northeast in the area southeast of the surface low track. As the squall line matures, the propensity for severe gusts will probably increase despite relatively poor lapse given the intense flow expected to develop. It remains uncertain if cellular development will occur either ahead of the line or be loosely maintained in parts of the larger band of storms. Nonetheless, elongated and enlarged hodographs will favor a risk for scattered severe gusts and possibly a tornado risk, especially as the squall line encounters greater moisture from west-central TX northeastward into southwest OK late. ..Smith/Weinman.. 11/17/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 171630Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across parts of west/northwest Texas into southwest Oklahoma this evening and continuing through daybreak on Monday, posing a risk for severe wind gusts and a few tornadoes. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a potent mid-level low/trough over northwest Mexico with a downstream ridge centered over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. A mid-level vorticity maximum near the middle part of the Gulf of California will pivot east into Chihuahua by mid evening while the larger-scale trough becomes negatively tilted and moves northeastward into the southern High Plains. In the low levels, cyclogenesis over northern Mexico will gradually evolve today before the surface low deepens tonight reaching the northwest TX/western OK vicinity at the end of the period. Seasonably moist air via southeasterly flow from the western Gulf will advect into west TX before a Pacific front sweeps eastward across the Chihuahuan Desert and portions of the southern High Plains tonight. An attendant warm frontal zone will advance northward from north TX into OK late. ...Southern Great Plains... The 12 UTC Fort Worth, TX observed sounding showed an adequately moist/deep moist layer featuring a mean mixing ratio of 12.6 g/kg. The richer low-level moisture, featuring dewpoints in the mid-upper 60s as of late morning, is currently near the I-35 corridor from the Metroplex and areas south/southeast. Moisture advection will contribute to gradual destabilization through this evening across parts of west TX northeastward into southwest OK despite considerable cloud cover through the day. As an intense 100-kt 500-mb speed max moves from Chihuahua into west TX overnight, large-scale ascent will favor the development of scattered thunderstorms initially developing near the Permian Basin vicinity and becoming more widespread as very strong low-level warm advection attendant to an intensifying LLJ develops tonight. Model guidance indicates 250-1000 J/kg MLCAPE across the destabilizing warm sector. A forced band of storms will likely evolve tonight across west TX and rapidly move northeast in the area southeast of the surface low track. As the squall line matures, the propensity for severe gusts will probably increase despite relatively poor lapse given the intense flow expected to develop. It remains uncertain if cellular development will occur either ahead of the line or be loosely maintained in parts of the larger band of storms. Nonetheless, elongated and enlarged hodographs will favor a risk for scattered severe gusts and possibly a tornado risk, especially as the squall line encounters greater moisture from west-central TX northeastward into southwest OK late. ..Smith/Weinman.. 11/17/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z The Elevated risk area has been expanded northeastward to encompass more of the New England region. This change was driven by morning surface observations, which are reporting relative humidity values between 20-25% - lower than anticipated by most model solutions. Given recent fire starts over the past 24 hours, fuels remain supportive across the region for at least a low-grade fire concern. Wind gusts up to 15 mph remain possible through early afternoon, but should still be less frequent and widespread compared to yesterday. ..Moore.. 11/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... With the upper-level trough and stronger mid-level flow departing to the east, surface winds are expected to weaken from previous days across the Northeast. Stronger wind gusts are also likely to be much less widespread as well. Even so, very dry conditions with very dry fuels will support a low-end elevated threat for parts of southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. Winds of 10-15 mph are possible, though these are most likely to occur earlier in the day mostly offset from the lowest RH. RH itself will fall to 25-35%, with local values near 20%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z The Elevated risk area has been expanded northeastward to encompass more of the New England region. This change was driven by morning surface observations, which are reporting relative humidity values between 20-25% - lower than anticipated by most model solutions. Given recent fire starts over the past 24 hours, fuels remain supportive across the region for at least a low-grade fire concern. Wind gusts up to 15 mph remain possible through early afternoon, but should still be less frequent and widespread compared to yesterday. ..Moore.. 11/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... With the upper-level trough and stronger mid-level flow departing to the east, surface winds are expected to weaken from previous days across the Northeast. Stronger wind gusts are also likely to be much less widespread as well. Even so, very dry conditions with very dry fuels will support a low-end elevated threat for parts of southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. Winds of 10-15 mph are possible, though these are most likely to occur earlier in the day mostly offset from the lowest RH. RH itself will fall to 25-35%, with local values near 20%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z The Elevated risk area has been expanded northeastward to encompass more of the New England region. This change was driven by morning surface observations, which are reporting relative humidity values between 20-25% - lower than anticipated by most model solutions. Given recent fire starts over the past 24 hours, fuels remain supportive across the region for at least a low-grade fire concern. Wind gusts up to 15 mph remain possible through early afternoon, but should still be less frequent and widespread compared to yesterday. ..Moore.. 11/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... With the upper-level trough and stronger mid-level flow departing to the east, surface winds are expected to weaken from previous days across the Northeast. Stronger wind gusts are also likely to be much less widespread as well. Even so, very dry conditions with very dry fuels will support a low-end elevated threat for parts of southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. Winds of 10-15 mph are possible, though these are most likely to occur earlier in the day mostly offset from the lowest RH. RH itself will fall to 25-35%, with local values near 20%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z The Elevated risk area has been expanded northeastward to encompass more of the New England region. This change was driven by morning surface observations, which are reporting relative humidity values between 20-25% - lower than anticipated by most model solutions. Given recent fire starts over the past 24 hours, fuels remain supportive across the region for at least a low-grade fire concern. Wind gusts up to 15 mph remain possible through early afternoon, but should still be less frequent and widespread compared to yesterday. ..Moore.. 11/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... With the upper-level trough and stronger mid-level flow departing to the east, surface winds are expected to weaken from previous days across the Northeast. Stronger wind gusts are also likely to be much less widespread as well. Even so, very dry conditions with very dry fuels will support a low-end elevated threat for parts of southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. Winds of 10-15 mph are possible, though these are most likely to occur earlier in the day mostly offset from the lowest RH. RH itself will fall to 25-35%, with local values near 20%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z The Elevated risk area has been expanded northeastward to encompass more of the New England region. This change was driven by morning surface observations, which are reporting relative humidity values between 20-25% - lower than anticipated by most model solutions. Given recent fire starts over the past 24 hours, fuels remain supportive across the region for at least a low-grade fire concern. Wind gusts up to 15 mph remain possible through early afternoon, but should still be less frequent and widespread compared to yesterday. ..Moore.. 11/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... With the upper-level trough and stronger mid-level flow departing to the east, surface winds are expected to weaken from previous days across the Northeast. Stronger wind gusts are also likely to be much less widespread as well. Even so, very dry conditions with very dry fuels will support a low-end elevated threat for parts of southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. Winds of 10-15 mph are possible, though these are most likely to occur earlier in the day mostly offset from the lowest RH. RH itself will fall to 25-35%, with local values near 20%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1005 AM CST Sun Nov 17 2024 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z The Elevated risk area has been expanded northeastward to encompass more of the New England region. This change was driven by morning surface observations, which are reporting relative humidity values between 20-25% - lower than anticipated by most model solutions. Given recent fire starts over the past 24 hours, fuels remain supportive across the region for at least a low-grade fire concern. Wind gusts up to 15 mph remain possible through early afternoon, but should still be less frequent and widespread compared to yesterday. ..Moore.. 11/17/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1135 PM CST Sat Nov 16 2024/ ...Synopsis... With the upper-level trough and stronger mid-level flow departing to the east, surface winds are expected to weaken from previous days across the Northeast. Stronger wind gusts are also likely to be much less widespread as well. Even so, very dry conditions with very dry fuels will support a low-end elevated threat for parts of southern New England into the northern Mid-Atlantic this afternoon. Winds of 10-15 mph are possible, though these are most likely to occur earlier in the day mostly offset from the lowest RH. RH itself will fall to 25-35%, with local values near 20%. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more