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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential appears low during much of the period, but a low-probability threat may evolve around D6/Tuesday in the northern/central High/Great Plains vicinity. With weak flow and a blocking pattern in the East, a large-scale trough should reach the West Coast by D4/Sunday. Guidance consensus continues to indicate an embedded shortwave trough ejecting east-northeast over parts of the West, before pivoting more north-northeastward towards mid-week. However, run-to-run oscillation persists with both its spatial evolution and amplitude of an attendant mid-level jet. Today's 00Z runs suggest a more marginal setup for a 15 percent highlight. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential appears low during much of the period, but a low-probability threat may evolve around D6/Tuesday in the northern/central High/Great Plains vicinity. With weak flow and a blocking pattern in the East, a large-scale trough should reach the West Coast by D4/Sunday. Guidance consensus continues to indicate an embedded shortwave trough ejecting east-northeast over parts of the West, before pivoting more north-northeastward towards mid-week. However, run-to-run oscillation persists with both its spatial evolution and amplitude of an attendant mid-level jet. Today's 00Z runs suggest a more marginal setup for a 15 percent highlight. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential appears low during much of the period, but a low-probability threat may evolve around D6/Tuesday in the northern/central High/Great Plains vicinity. With weak flow and a blocking pattern in the East, a large-scale trough should reach the West Coast by D4/Sunday. Guidance consensus continues to indicate an embedded shortwave trough ejecting east-northeast over parts of the West, before pivoting more north-northeastward towards mid-week. However, run-to-run oscillation persists with both its spatial evolution and amplitude of an attendant mid-level jet. Today's 00Z runs suggest a more marginal setup for a 15 percent highlight. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential appears low during much of the period, but a low-probability threat may evolve around D6/Tuesday in the northern/central High/Great Plains vicinity. With weak flow and a blocking pattern in the East, a large-scale trough should reach the West Coast by D4/Sunday. Guidance consensus continues to indicate an embedded shortwave trough ejecting east-northeast over parts of the West, before pivoting more north-northeastward towards mid-week. However, run-to-run oscillation persists with both its spatial evolution and amplitude of an attendant mid-level jet. Today's 00Z runs suggest a more marginal setup for a 15 percent highlight. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential appears low during much of the period, but a low-probability threat may evolve around D6/Tuesday in the northern/central High/Great Plains vicinity. With weak flow and a blocking pattern in the East, a large-scale trough should reach the West Coast by D4/Sunday. Guidance consensus continues to indicate an embedded shortwave trough ejecting east-northeast over parts of the West, before pivoting more north-northeastward towards mid-week. However, run-to-run oscillation persists with both its spatial evolution and amplitude of an attendant mid-level jet. Today's 00Z runs suggest a more marginal setup for a 15 percent highlight. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential appears low during much of the period, but a low-probability threat may evolve around D6/Tuesday in the northern/central High/Great Plains vicinity. With weak flow and a blocking pattern in the East, a large-scale trough should reach the West Coast by D4/Sunday. Guidance consensus continues to indicate an embedded shortwave trough ejecting east-northeast over parts of the West, before pivoting more north-northeastward towards mid-week. However, run-to-run oscillation persists with both its spatial evolution and amplitude of an attendant mid-level jet. Today's 00Z runs suggest a more marginal setup for a 15 percent highlight. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential appears low during much of the period, but a low-probability threat may evolve around D6/Tuesday in the northern/central High/Great Plains vicinity. With weak flow and a blocking pattern in the East, a large-scale trough should reach the West Coast by D4/Sunday. Guidance consensus continues to indicate an embedded shortwave trough ejecting east-northeast over parts of the West, before pivoting more north-northeastward towards mid-week. However, run-to-run oscillation persists with both its spatial evolution and amplitude of an attendant mid-level jet. Today's 00Z runs suggest a more marginal setup for a 15 percent highlight. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential appears low during much of the period, but a low-probability threat may evolve around D6/Tuesday in the northern/central High/Great Plains vicinity. With weak flow and a blocking pattern in the East, a large-scale trough should reach the West Coast by D4/Sunday. Guidance consensus continues to indicate an embedded shortwave trough ejecting east-northeast over parts of the West, before pivoting more north-northeastward towards mid-week. However, run-to-run oscillation persists with both its spatial evolution and amplitude of an attendant mid-level jet. Today's 00Z runs suggest a more marginal setup for a 15 percent highlight. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 151200Z - 201200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe potential appears low during much of the period, but a low-probability threat may evolve around D6/Tuesday in the northern/central High/Great Plains vicinity. With weak flow and a blocking pattern in the East, a large-scale trough should reach the West Coast by D4/Sunday. Guidance consensus continues to indicate an embedded shortwave trough ejecting east-northeast over parts of the West, before pivoting more north-northeastward towards mid-week. However, run-to-run oscillation persists with both its spatial evolution and amplitude of an attendant mid-level jet. Today's 00Z runs suggest a more marginal setup for a 15 percent highlight. Read more

MD 2057 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 668... FOR COASTAL ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2057 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Areas affected...coastal Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle Concerning...Tornado Watch 668... Valid 120642Z - 120845Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 668 continues. SUMMARY...The risk for showers and storms with potential to produce tornadoes may be in the process of diminishing across southeastern Mississippi, but it could still increase across coastal areas of the western Florida Panhandle and adjacent coastal Alabama through 3-5 AM CDT. DISCUSSION...Rapid weakening of Francine continues, with notable drying circulating around its southern through southeastern periphery and likely to continue overspreading southeastern Mississippi and the Mobile Bay vicinity during the next few hours. The surface low is in the process of migrating near/northwest through north of the Lake Pontchartrain vicinity. As the north-northeastward motion continues, model forecast soundings indicate that initially enlarged clockwise curved low-level hodographs across southeastern Mississippi will begin to shrink within the next hour or two. Instability associated with mid/upper 70s surface dew points is probably needed for stronger convection to overcome the warm mid-levels. Aside from immediate coastal areas around Gulf Shores AL, this remains largely offshore, where a number of rotating cells have been evident the past few hours. However, some inland advection still appears possible through daybreak across at least the coastal western Florida Panhandle, where low-level hodographs are still forecast to become sufficiently enlarged and clockwise curved to support at least a conditional risk for tornadoes. ..Kerr.. 09/12/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TAE...MOB... LAT...LON 29608568 29498600 29488655 29588724 29858786 30118819 30528810 30478737 30438713 30448631 30238586 29608568 Read more

WW 0668 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 668 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSW PNS TO 40 SW PNS TO 20 SSW MOB TO 50 N MOB. ..KERR..09/12/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 668 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-097-129-120940- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN MOBILE WASHINGTON FLC005-033-091-113-131-120940- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON GMZ630-631-632-633-634-635-636-650-655-675-750-770-120940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE NORTH MOBILE BAY Read more

WW 0668 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 668 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SSW PNS TO 40 SW PNS TO 10 E GPT TO 35 S PIB TO 5 NNE PIB. ..KERR..09/12/24 ATTN...WFO...MOB...TAE...LIX...JAN... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 668 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC003-097-129-120840- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BALDWIN MOBILE WASHINGTON FLC005-033-091-113-131-120840- FL . FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAY ESCAMBIA OKALOOSA SANTA ROSA WALTON MSC035-039-041-047-059-111-131-120840- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FORREST GEORGE GREENE HARRISON JACKSON PERRY STONE Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Discussion... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears negligible across the CONUS on Saturday. The remnant circulation of post-TC Francine will further weaken as it drifts east-southeast over a portion of the Mid/Deep South. Potential for thunderstorm activity may be broadened northward into the Upper Midwest as modified tropical moisture is gradually advected around a mid-level anticyclone over the Great Lakes. Low-amplitude shortwave impulses within a quasi-zonal flow regime over the West may aid in sporadic thunderstorm development across parts of the Great Plains and the far northern Rockies. Across these regimes, the shear/instability combination appears insufficient for a severe-storm highlight. ..Grams.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Discussion... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears negligible across the CONUS on Saturday. The remnant circulation of post-TC Francine will further weaken as it drifts east-southeast over a portion of the Mid/Deep South. Potential for thunderstorm activity may be broadened northward into the Upper Midwest as modified tropical moisture is gradually advected around a mid-level anticyclone over the Great Lakes. Low-amplitude shortwave impulses within a quasi-zonal flow regime over the West may aid in sporadic thunderstorm development across parts of the Great Plains and the far northern Rockies. Across these regimes, the shear/instability combination appears insufficient for a severe-storm highlight. ..Grams.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Discussion... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears negligible across the CONUS on Saturday. The remnant circulation of post-TC Francine will further weaken as it drifts east-southeast over a portion of the Mid/Deep South. Potential for thunderstorm activity may be broadened northward into the Upper Midwest as modified tropical moisture is gradually advected around a mid-level anticyclone over the Great Lakes. Low-amplitude shortwave impulses within a quasi-zonal flow regime over the West may aid in sporadic thunderstorm development across parts of the Great Plains and the far northern Rockies. Across these regimes, the shear/instability combination appears insufficient for a severe-storm highlight. ..Grams.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Discussion... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears negligible across the CONUS on Saturday. The remnant circulation of post-TC Francine will further weaken as it drifts east-southeast over a portion of the Mid/Deep South. Potential for thunderstorm activity may be broadened northward into the Upper Midwest as modified tropical moisture is gradually advected around a mid-level anticyclone over the Great Lakes. Low-amplitude shortwave impulses within a quasi-zonal flow regime over the West may aid in sporadic thunderstorm development across parts of the Great Plains and the far northern Rockies. Across these regimes, the shear/instability combination appears insufficient for a severe-storm highlight. ..Grams.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Discussion... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears negligible across the CONUS on Saturday. The remnant circulation of post-TC Francine will further weaken as it drifts east-southeast over a portion of the Mid/Deep South. Potential for thunderstorm activity may be broadened northward into the Upper Midwest as modified tropical moisture is gradually advected around a mid-level anticyclone over the Great Lakes. Low-amplitude shortwave impulses within a quasi-zonal flow regime over the West may aid in sporadic thunderstorm development across parts of the Great Plains and the far northern Rockies. Across these regimes, the shear/instability combination appears insufficient for a severe-storm highlight. ..Grams.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Discussion... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears negligible across the CONUS on Saturday. The remnant circulation of post-TC Francine will further weaken as it drifts east-southeast over a portion of the Mid/Deep South. Potential for thunderstorm activity may be broadened northward into the Upper Midwest as modified tropical moisture is gradually advected around a mid-level anticyclone over the Great Lakes. Low-amplitude shortwave impulses within a quasi-zonal flow regime over the West may aid in sporadic thunderstorm development across parts of the Great Plains and the far northern Rockies. Across these regimes, the shear/instability combination appears insufficient for a severe-storm highlight. ..Grams.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Discussion... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears negligible across the CONUS on Saturday. The remnant circulation of post-TC Francine will further weaken as it drifts east-southeast over a portion of the Mid/Deep South. Potential for thunderstorm activity may be broadened northward into the Upper Midwest as modified tropical moisture is gradually advected around a mid-level anticyclone over the Great Lakes. Low-amplitude shortwave impulses within a quasi-zonal flow regime over the West may aid in sporadic thunderstorm development across parts of the Great Plains and the far northern Rockies. Across these regimes, the shear/instability combination appears insufficient for a severe-storm highlight. ..Grams.. 09/12/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0205 AM CDT Thu Sep 12 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Saturday. ...Discussion... Organized severe thunderstorm potential appears negligible across the CONUS on Saturday. The remnant circulation of post-TC Francine will further weaken as it drifts east-southeast over a portion of the Mid/Deep South. Potential for thunderstorm activity may be broadened northward into the Upper Midwest as modified tropical moisture is gradually advected around a mid-level anticyclone over the Great Lakes. Low-amplitude shortwave impulses within a quasi-zonal flow regime over the West may aid in sporadic thunderstorm development across parts of the Great Plains and the far northern Rockies. Across these regimes, the shear/instability combination appears insufficient for a severe-storm highlight. ..Grams.. 09/12/2024 Read more