Aggregator

MD 1714 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ME
Mesoscale Discussion 1714 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0106 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Areas affected...Central/southern ME Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 121806Z - 122030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Storms capable of locally damaging wind and marginally severe hail are possible this afternoon. Watch issuance is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Despite widespread cloudiness, gradual heating is underway across much of Maine, with an increase in cumulus noted within the last hour. While large-scale ascent will generally be limited across the region this afternoon, widely scattered thunderstorm development will be possible as a weak surface trough and midlevel speed max approach the area from the west. Midlevel lapse rates are rather weak, but continued heating and sufficient moisture will result in MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg across portions of ME later this afternoon. Moderate southwesterly aloft will support effective shear of 30-40 kt, sufficient for some storm organization with the strongest updrafts. The most favorable overlap of shear and buoyancy is forecast over the central third of Maine. Marginally severe hail will be possible with the most organized cells, while locally damaging wind cannot be ruled out, especially in areas where greater heating occurs resulting in steeper low-level lapse rates. Due to the marginality of the threat, watch issuance is not expected. ..Dean/Grams.. 08/12/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX... LAT...LON 44586733 44676880 44656948 44617042 44707093 45047094 45287091 45717059 45967017 46036879 46016820 45936776 45876745 45056693 44586733 Read more

000
ABNT20 KNHC 121745
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Aug 12 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121744
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Aug 12 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Henriette, located a few hundred miles southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located just over 1000 miles
southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula are
associated with a trough of low pressure. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for some development during the next
few days, and a tropical depression could form later this week while
the system moves west-northwestward at around 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Henriette are issued under
WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Henriette are issued
under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Pasch

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Tuesday afternoon and early evening over the Middle Atlantic into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Other strong to severe storms are possible over the Upper Mississippi Valley and the central High Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... A subtle cyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place on Tuesday from the north-central states eastward into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward into the Mid-Atlantic extending west-southwestward into the mid Mississippi Valley. A surface low along the front will move eastward across the central Appalachians. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front should be in the lower 70s contributing to a corridor of moderate instability by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the front during the afternoon from southern Ohio eastward across the Virginias into Maryland. Cells may tend to organize into lines and MCS development will be possible from late afternoon into the early evening. NAM forecast soundings along the front from West Virginia into northern Virginia and southern Maryland suggest that MLCAPE values could reach 2500 J/kg at peak heating. Winds are veered to the southwest at the surface with about 30 kt of westerly flow in the mid-levels. This combined with steep lapse rates in the lowest 3 km AGL will be favorable for damaging wind gusts associated with line segments. If a cold pool can develop with a larger-scale line segment, then numerous damaging wind gusts will be possible from eastern West Virginia eastward to Delaware and southern New Jersey. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... A minor shortwave trough will move east-southeastward into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a low will track southeastward from central Minnesota to near Minneapolis and then along the Mississippi River. Ahead of the surface low track, an axis of maximized low-level moisture will exist with surface dewpoints in the mid 60s F. In response to surface heating, a pocket of moderate instability may develop by afternoon. Convection is forecast to initiate ahead of the shortwave trough and move southeastward across eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin during the mid to late afternoon. MLCAPE values in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg combined with 0-6 km shear of 35 to 45 kt may be favorable for an isolated severe threat with hail and strong gusty winds possible. Poor lapse rates should keep any threat marginal. ...Central Plains... A low-amplitude upper-level ridge will move across the western U.S. on Tuesday as west to northwest mid-level flow remains over the central High Plains. At the surface, a mesolow is forecast to develop in southeastern Colorado ahead of a front, moving southward into northeastern Colorado. Convection appears likely to initiate along the front during the late afternoon with thunderstorms moving southeastward into western Kansas by early evening. Strong directional shear profiles along with steep lapse rates may be enough for hail in the stronger cores. A few marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 30% - Enhanced Hail: 15% - Slight ..Broyles.. 08/12/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Tuesday afternoon and early evening over the Middle Atlantic into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Other strong to severe storms are possible over the Upper Mississippi Valley and the central High Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... A subtle cyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place on Tuesday from the north-central states eastward into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward into the Mid-Atlantic extending west-southwestward into the mid Mississippi Valley. A surface low along the front will move eastward across the central Appalachians. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front should be in the lower 70s contributing to a corridor of moderate instability by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the front during the afternoon from southern Ohio eastward across the Virginias into Maryland. Cells may tend to organize into lines and MCS development will be possible from late afternoon into the early evening. NAM forecast soundings along the front from West Virginia into northern Virginia and southern Maryland suggest that MLCAPE values could reach 2500 J/kg at peak heating. Winds are veered to the southwest at the surface with about 30 kt of westerly flow in the mid-levels. This combined with steep lapse rates in the lowest 3 km AGL will be favorable for damaging wind gusts associated with line segments. If a cold pool can develop with a larger-scale line segment, then numerous damaging wind gusts will be possible from eastern West Virginia eastward to Delaware and southern New Jersey. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... A minor shortwave trough will move east-southeastward into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a low will track southeastward from central Minnesota to near Minneapolis and then along the Mississippi River. Ahead of the surface low track, an axis of maximized low-level moisture will exist with surface dewpoints in the mid 60s F. In response to surface heating, a pocket of moderate instability may develop by afternoon. Convection is forecast to initiate ahead of the shortwave trough and move southeastward across eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin during the mid to late afternoon. MLCAPE values in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg combined with 0-6 km shear of 35 to 45 kt may be favorable for an isolated severe threat with hail and strong gusty winds possible. Poor lapse rates should keep any threat marginal. ...Central Plains... A low-amplitude upper-level ridge will move across the western U.S. on Tuesday as west to northwest mid-level flow remains over the central High Plains. At the surface, a mesolow is forecast to develop in southeastern Colorado ahead of a front, moving southward into northeastern Colorado. Convection appears likely to initiate along the front during the late afternoon with thunderstorms moving southeastward into western Kansas by early evening. Strong directional shear profiles along with steep lapse rates may be enough for hail in the stronger cores. A few marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 30% - Enhanced Hail: 15% - Slight ..Broyles.. 08/12/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Tuesday afternoon and early evening over the Middle Atlantic into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Other strong to severe storms are possible over the Upper Mississippi Valley and the central High Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... A subtle cyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place on Tuesday from the north-central states eastward into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward into the Mid-Atlantic extending west-southwestward into the mid Mississippi Valley. A surface low along the front will move eastward across the central Appalachians. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front should be in the lower 70s contributing to a corridor of moderate instability by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the front during the afternoon from southern Ohio eastward across the Virginias into Maryland. Cells may tend to organize into lines and MCS development will be possible from late afternoon into the early evening. NAM forecast soundings along the front from West Virginia into northern Virginia and southern Maryland suggest that MLCAPE values could reach 2500 J/kg at peak heating. Winds are veered to the southwest at the surface with about 30 kt of westerly flow in the mid-levels. This combined with steep lapse rates in the lowest 3 km AGL will be favorable for damaging wind gusts associated with line segments. If a cold pool can develop with a larger-scale line segment, then numerous damaging wind gusts will be possible from eastern West Virginia eastward to Delaware and southern New Jersey. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... A minor shortwave trough will move east-southeastward into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a low will track southeastward from central Minnesota to near Minneapolis and then along the Mississippi River. Ahead of the surface low track, an axis of maximized low-level moisture will exist with surface dewpoints in the mid 60s F. In response to surface heating, a pocket of moderate instability may develop by afternoon. Convection is forecast to initiate ahead of the shortwave trough and move southeastward across eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin during the mid to late afternoon. MLCAPE values in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg combined with 0-6 km shear of 35 to 45 kt may be favorable for an isolated severe threat with hail and strong gusty winds possible. Poor lapse rates should keep any threat marginal. ...Central Plains... A low-amplitude upper-level ridge will move across the western U.S. on Tuesday as west to northwest mid-level flow remains over the central High Plains. At the surface, a mesolow is forecast to develop in southeastern Colorado ahead of a front, moving southward into northeastern Colorado. Convection appears likely to initiate along the front during the late afternoon with thunderstorms moving southeastward into western Kansas by early evening. Strong directional shear profiles along with steep lapse rates may be enough for hail in the stronger cores. A few marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 30% - Enhanced Hail: 15% - Slight ..Broyles.. 08/12/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1219 PM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EASTWARD TO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are expected Tuesday afternoon and early evening over the Middle Atlantic into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Other strong to severe storms are possible over the Upper Mississippi Valley and the central High Plains. ...Mid-Atlantic/Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... A subtle cyclonic mid-level flow pattern will be in place on Tuesday from the north-central states eastward into the Northeast. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward into the Mid-Atlantic extending west-southwestward into the mid Mississippi Valley. A surface low along the front will move eastward across the central Appalachians. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front should be in the lower 70s contributing to a corridor of moderate instability by afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop along the front during the afternoon from southern Ohio eastward across the Virginias into Maryland. Cells may tend to organize into lines and MCS development will be possible from late afternoon into the early evening. NAM forecast soundings along the front from West Virginia into northern Virginia and southern Maryland suggest that MLCAPE values could reach 2500 J/kg at peak heating. Winds are veered to the southwest at the surface with about 30 kt of westerly flow in the mid-levels. This combined with steep lapse rates in the lowest 3 km AGL will be favorable for damaging wind gusts associated with line segments. If a cold pool can develop with a larger-scale line segment, then numerous damaging wind gusts will be possible from eastern West Virginia eastward to Delaware and southern New Jersey. ...Upper Mississippi Valley... A minor shortwave trough will move east-southeastward into the Upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. At the surface, a low will track southeastward from central Minnesota to near Minneapolis and then along the Mississippi River. Ahead of the surface low track, an axis of maximized low-level moisture will exist with surface dewpoints in the mid 60s F. In response to surface heating, a pocket of moderate instability may develop by afternoon. Convection is forecast to initiate ahead of the shortwave trough and move southeastward across eastern Minnesota and western Wisconsin during the mid to late afternoon. MLCAPE values in the 1000 to 2000 J/kg combined with 0-6 km shear of 35 to 45 kt may be favorable for an isolated severe threat with hail and strong gusty winds possible. Poor lapse rates should keep any threat marginal. ...Central Plains... A low-amplitude upper-level ridge will move across the western U.S. on Tuesday as west to northwest mid-level flow remains over the central High Plains. At the surface, a mesolow is forecast to develop in southeastern Colorado ahead of a front, moving southward into northeastern Colorado. Convection appears likely to initiate along the front during the late afternoon with thunderstorms moving southeastward into western Kansas by early evening. Strong directional shear profiles along with steep lapse rates may be enough for hail in the stronger cores. A few marginally severe wind gusts will also be possible. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 5% - Slight Wind: 30% - Enhanced Hail: 15% - Slight ..Broyles.. 08/12/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST IA TO WEST-CENTRAL IN... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, a couple possibly strong, and significant damaging winds will be likely across southeast Iowa through central Illinois, mainly this evening. ...IA/IL/IN... An upgrade to Moderate Risk for tornado and/or wind may become necessary in later outlooks today. A leading MCV is tracking east into eastern IA with a lingering surface cyclone centered over west-central IA. This latter feature should move east into northern IL through this evening. Diffuse convective outflow from remnant leading MCS over southern IL has been shunted across southeast to northwest MO. Nevertheless, air mass recovery is underway north of the boundary into extreme southern IA and west-central IL. Further erosion of the prior cold pool amid cloud breaks should yield at least weak to moderate surface-based buoyancy by late afternoon in IA to northern IL. More robust destabilization is expected farther south where greater unimpeded insolation occurs while a plume of 77-81 F surface dew points is advected north from the Mid-South. Despite relatively warm mid-level temperatures, the very rich boundary-layer moisture and surface heating should yield a plume of large buoyancy with MLCAPE likely reaching 3000-4000 J/kg across much of MO into central/southern IL. Renewed thunderstorm development is probable towards late afternoon near the surface cyclone in southeast IA and during the early evening to the southeast in central IL within a corridor of strengthening low-level warm advection. The initial storms will likely be supercells capable of producing all hazards, given the enhanced low-level shear/hodograph curvature near the cyclone/warm front. Hodographs aloft should tend to favor relatively quick upscale growth, but even semi-discrete supercells will pose a risk for at least a few tornadoes, a couple of which be may strong. A forward-propagating MCS should eventually evolve along the MLCAPE gradient from central IL into central IN where severe wind gusts will remain a threat before weakening overnight. ...TX Panhandle to southern KS/northern OK... A remnant midlevel trough will drift slowly east-northeastward over the TX Panhandle, as a weak cold front moves slowly southeastward from KS/CO. Surface heating and deep mixing will result in inverted-v profiles along and south of the front, and will support the potential for isolated strong downburst winds. Convection will tend to develop east-northeastward tonight along the front, with strong downdrafts still possible in an environment of lingering large CAPE/DCAPE. ...ME... A midlevel trough over James Bay will pivot east-southeastward to Maine overnight. In advance of this trough, a weak pre-frontal trough at the surface and band of weak ascent will provide a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Though moisture and lapse rates will be modest, increasing deep-layer westerly shear and surface heating on the south edge of the thicker clouds could support storms capable of producing isolated damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. ...Dakotas... Widespread clouds and rain are spreading slowly eastward across the eastern Dakotas in association with a couple of diffuse MCVs from overnight convection. A little clearing of clouds and surface heating will be possible from west to east this afternoon, in advance of a larger-scale trough moving east-southeastward from MT to ND. Isolated thunderstorm development and a low-end severe threat will be possible this afternoon if sufficient near-surface destabilization occurs, given enough vertical shear for organized storms. ..Grams/Dean.. 08/12/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST IA TO WEST-CENTRAL IN... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, a couple possibly strong, and significant damaging winds will be likely across southeast Iowa through central Illinois, mainly this evening. ...IA/IL/IN... An upgrade to Moderate Risk for tornado and/or wind may become necessary in later outlooks today. A leading MCV is tracking east into eastern IA with a lingering surface cyclone centered over west-central IA. This latter feature should move east into northern IL through this evening. Diffuse convective outflow from remnant leading MCS over southern IL has been shunted across southeast to northwest MO. Nevertheless, air mass recovery is underway north of the boundary into extreme southern IA and west-central IL. Further erosion of the prior cold pool amid cloud breaks should yield at least weak to moderate surface-based buoyancy by late afternoon in IA to northern IL. More robust destabilization is expected farther south where greater unimpeded insolation occurs while a plume of 77-81 F surface dew points is advected north from the Mid-South. Despite relatively warm mid-level temperatures, the very rich boundary-layer moisture and surface heating should yield a plume of large buoyancy with MLCAPE likely reaching 3000-4000 J/kg across much of MO into central/southern IL. Renewed thunderstorm development is probable towards late afternoon near the surface cyclone in southeast IA and during the early evening to the southeast in central IL within a corridor of strengthening low-level warm advection. The initial storms will likely be supercells capable of producing all hazards, given the enhanced low-level shear/hodograph curvature near the cyclone/warm front. Hodographs aloft should tend to favor relatively quick upscale growth, but even semi-discrete supercells will pose a risk for at least a few tornadoes, a couple of which be may strong. A forward-propagating MCS should eventually evolve along the MLCAPE gradient from central IL into central IN where severe wind gusts will remain a threat before weakening overnight. ...TX Panhandle to southern KS/northern OK... A remnant midlevel trough will drift slowly east-northeastward over the TX Panhandle, as a weak cold front moves slowly southeastward from KS/CO. Surface heating and deep mixing will result in inverted-v profiles along and south of the front, and will support the potential for isolated strong downburst winds. Convection will tend to develop east-northeastward tonight along the front, with strong downdrafts still possible in an environment of lingering large CAPE/DCAPE. ...ME... A midlevel trough over James Bay will pivot east-southeastward to Maine overnight. In advance of this trough, a weak pre-frontal trough at the surface and band of weak ascent will provide a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Though moisture and lapse rates will be modest, increasing deep-layer westerly shear and surface heating on the south edge of the thicker clouds could support storms capable of producing isolated damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. ...Dakotas... Widespread clouds and rain are spreading slowly eastward across the eastern Dakotas in association with a couple of diffuse MCVs from overnight convection. A little clearing of clouds and surface heating will be possible from west to east this afternoon, in advance of a larger-scale trough moving east-southeastward from MT to ND. Isolated thunderstorm development and a low-end severe threat will be possible this afternoon if sufficient near-surface destabilization occurs, given enough vertical shear for organized storms. ..Grams/Dean.. 08/12/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST IA TO WEST-CENTRAL IN... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, a couple possibly strong, and significant damaging winds will be likely across southeast Iowa through central Illinois, mainly this evening. ...IA/IL/IN... An upgrade to Moderate Risk for tornado and/or wind may become necessary in later outlooks today. A leading MCV is tracking east into eastern IA with a lingering surface cyclone centered over west-central IA. This latter feature should move east into northern IL through this evening. Diffuse convective outflow from remnant leading MCS over southern IL has been shunted across southeast to northwest MO. Nevertheless, air mass recovery is underway north of the boundary into extreme southern IA and west-central IL. Further erosion of the prior cold pool amid cloud breaks should yield at least weak to moderate surface-based buoyancy by late afternoon in IA to northern IL. More robust destabilization is expected farther south where greater unimpeded insolation occurs while a plume of 77-81 F surface dew points is advected north from the Mid-South. Despite relatively warm mid-level temperatures, the very rich boundary-layer moisture and surface heating should yield a plume of large buoyancy with MLCAPE likely reaching 3000-4000 J/kg across much of MO into central/southern IL. Renewed thunderstorm development is probable towards late afternoon near the surface cyclone in southeast IA and during the early evening to the southeast in central IL within a corridor of strengthening low-level warm advection. The initial storms will likely be supercells capable of producing all hazards, given the enhanced low-level shear/hodograph curvature near the cyclone/warm front. Hodographs aloft should tend to favor relatively quick upscale growth, but even semi-discrete supercells will pose a risk for at least a few tornadoes, a couple of which be may strong. A forward-propagating MCS should eventually evolve along the MLCAPE gradient from central IL into central IN where severe wind gusts will remain a threat before weakening overnight. ...TX Panhandle to southern KS/northern OK... A remnant midlevel trough will drift slowly east-northeastward over the TX Panhandle, as a weak cold front moves slowly southeastward from KS/CO. Surface heating and deep mixing will result in inverted-v profiles along and south of the front, and will support the potential for isolated strong downburst winds. Convection will tend to develop east-northeastward tonight along the front, with strong downdrafts still possible in an environment of lingering large CAPE/DCAPE. ...ME... A midlevel trough over James Bay will pivot east-southeastward to Maine overnight. In advance of this trough, a weak pre-frontal trough at the surface and band of weak ascent will provide a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Though moisture and lapse rates will be modest, increasing deep-layer westerly shear and surface heating on the south edge of the thicker clouds could support storms capable of producing isolated damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. ...Dakotas... Widespread clouds and rain are spreading slowly eastward across the eastern Dakotas in association with a couple of diffuse MCVs from overnight convection. A little clearing of clouds and surface heating will be possible from west to east this afternoon, in advance of a larger-scale trough moving east-southeastward from MT to ND. Isolated thunderstorm development and a low-end severe threat will be possible this afternoon if sufficient near-surface destabilization occurs, given enough vertical shear for organized storms. ..Grams/Dean.. 08/12/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST IA TO WEST-CENTRAL IN... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, a couple possibly strong, and significant damaging winds will be likely across southeast Iowa through central Illinois, mainly this evening. ...IA/IL/IN... An upgrade to Moderate Risk for tornado and/or wind may become necessary in later outlooks today. A leading MCV is tracking east into eastern IA with a lingering surface cyclone centered over west-central IA. This latter feature should move east into northern IL through this evening. Diffuse convective outflow from remnant leading MCS over southern IL has been shunted across southeast to northwest MO. Nevertheless, air mass recovery is underway north of the boundary into extreme southern IA and west-central IL. Further erosion of the prior cold pool amid cloud breaks should yield at least weak to moderate surface-based buoyancy by late afternoon in IA to northern IL. More robust destabilization is expected farther south where greater unimpeded insolation occurs while a plume of 77-81 F surface dew points is advected north from the Mid-South. Despite relatively warm mid-level temperatures, the very rich boundary-layer moisture and surface heating should yield a plume of large buoyancy with MLCAPE likely reaching 3000-4000 J/kg across much of MO into central/southern IL. Renewed thunderstorm development is probable towards late afternoon near the surface cyclone in southeast IA and during the early evening to the southeast in central IL within a corridor of strengthening low-level warm advection. The initial storms will likely be supercells capable of producing all hazards, given the enhanced low-level shear/hodograph curvature near the cyclone/warm front. Hodographs aloft should tend to favor relatively quick upscale growth, but even semi-discrete supercells will pose a risk for at least a few tornadoes, a couple of which be may strong. A forward-propagating MCS should eventually evolve along the MLCAPE gradient from central IL into central IN where severe wind gusts will remain a threat before weakening overnight. ...TX Panhandle to southern KS/northern OK... A remnant midlevel trough will drift slowly east-northeastward over the TX Panhandle, as a weak cold front moves slowly southeastward from KS/CO. Surface heating and deep mixing will result in inverted-v profiles along and south of the front, and will support the potential for isolated strong downburst winds. Convection will tend to develop east-northeastward tonight along the front, with strong downdrafts still possible in an environment of lingering large CAPE/DCAPE. ...ME... A midlevel trough over James Bay will pivot east-southeastward to Maine overnight. In advance of this trough, a weak pre-frontal trough at the surface and band of weak ascent will provide a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Though moisture and lapse rates will be modest, increasing deep-layer westerly shear and surface heating on the south edge of the thicker clouds could support storms capable of producing isolated damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. ...Dakotas... Widespread clouds and rain are spreading slowly eastward across the eastern Dakotas in association with a couple of diffuse MCVs from overnight convection. A little clearing of clouds and surface heating will be possible from west to east this afternoon, in advance of a larger-scale trough moving east-southeastward from MT to ND. Isolated thunderstorm development and a low-end severe threat will be possible this afternoon if sufficient near-surface destabilization occurs, given enough vertical shear for organized storms. ..Grams/Dean.. 08/12/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 121630Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST IA TO WEST-CENTRAL IN... ...SUMMARY... A few tornadoes, a couple possibly strong, and significant damaging winds will be likely across southeast Iowa through central Illinois, mainly this evening. ...IA/IL/IN... An upgrade to Moderate Risk for tornado and/or wind may become necessary in later outlooks today. A leading MCV is tracking east into eastern IA with a lingering surface cyclone centered over west-central IA. This latter feature should move east into northern IL through this evening. Diffuse convective outflow from remnant leading MCS over southern IL has been shunted across southeast to northwest MO. Nevertheless, air mass recovery is underway north of the boundary into extreme southern IA and west-central IL. Further erosion of the prior cold pool amid cloud breaks should yield at least weak to moderate surface-based buoyancy by late afternoon in IA to northern IL. More robust destabilization is expected farther south where greater unimpeded insolation occurs while a plume of 77-81 F surface dew points is advected north from the Mid-South. Despite relatively warm mid-level temperatures, the very rich boundary-layer moisture and surface heating should yield a plume of large buoyancy with MLCAPE likely reaching 3000-4000 J/kg across much of MO into central/southern IL. Renewed thunderstorm development is probable towards late afternoon near the surface cyclone in southeast IA and during the early evening to the southeast in central IL within a corridor of strengthening low-level warm advection. The initial storms will likely be supercells capable of producing all hazards, given the enhanced low-level shear/hodograph curvature near the cyclone/warm front. Hodographs aloft should tend to favor relatively quick upscale growth, but even semi-discrete supercells will pose a risk for at least a few tornadoes, a couple of which be may strong. A forward-propagating MCS should eventually evolve along the MLCAPE gradient from central IL into central IN where severe wind gusts will remain a threat before weakening overnight. ...TX Panhandle to southern KS/northern OK... A remnant midlevel trough will drift slowly east-northeastward over the TX Panhandle, as a weak cold front moves slowly southeastward from KS/CO. Surface heating and deep mixing will result in inverted-v profiles along and south of the front, and will support the potential for isolated strong downburst winds. Convection will tend to develop east-northeastward tonight along the front, with strong downdrafts still possible in an environment of lingering large CAPE/DCAPE. ...ME... A midlevel trough over James Bay will pivot east-southeastward to Maine overnight. In advance of this trough, a weak pre-frontal trough at the surface and band of weak ascent will provide a focus for thunderstorm development this afternoon. Though moisture and lapse rates will be modest, increasing deep-layer westerly shear and surface heating on the south edge of the thicker clouds could support storms capable of producing isolated damaging gusts and marginally severe hail. ...Dakotas... Widespread clouds and rain are spreading slowly eastward across the eastern Dakotas in association with a couple of diffuse MCVs from overnight convection. A little clearing of clouds and surface heating will be possible from west to east this afternoon, in advance of a larger-scale trough moving east-southeastward from MT to ND. Isolated thunderstorm development and a low-end severe threat will be possible this afternoon if sufficient near-surface destabilization occurs, given enough vertical shear for organized storms. ..Grams/Dean.. 08/12/2019 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes made. Please see below for details. ..Squitieri.. 08/12/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0712 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal today. A mid-level trough over the northern Rockies will weaken and eject, leaving behind weaker and more zonally oriented mid-level flow across the CONUS. Mid-level flow will become minimal across dry areas of the western U.S. Outside of areas of locally elevated fire weather in Wyoming and vicinity, the quiet overall pattern indicates that no highlights will be needed for this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes made. Please see below for details. ..Squitieri.. 08/12/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0712 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal today. A mid-level trough over the northern Rockies will weaken and eject, leaving behind weaker and more zonally oriented mid-level flow across the CONUS. Mid-level flow will become minimal across dry areas of the western U.S. Outside of areas of locally elevated fire weather in Wyoming and vicinity, the quiet overall pattern indicates that no highlights will be needed for this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes made. Please see below for details. ..Squitieri.. 08/12/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0712 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal today. A mid-level trough over the northern Rockies will weaken and eject, leaving behind weaker and more zonally oriented mid-level flow across the CONUS. Mid-level flow will become minimal across dry areas of the western U.S. Outside of areas of locally elevated fire weather in Wyoming and vicinity, the quiet overall pattern indicates that no highlights will be needed for this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 121700Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track, with no changes made. Please see below for details. ..Squitieri.. 08/12/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0712 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019/ ...Synopsis... Fire weather concerns will be minimal today. A mid-level trough over the northern Rockies will weaken and eject, leaving behind weaker and more zonally oriented mid-level flow across the CONUS. Mid-level flow will become minimal across dry areas of the western U.S. Outside of areas of locally elevated fire weather in Wyoming and vicinity, the quiet overall pattern indicates that no highlights will be needed for this outlook. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The area closure for the Verde Fire was lifted August 10 at 7:00am.The lightning caused Verde Fire was reported on Saturday, August 3rd after thunderstorms passed through the area. The fire is burning on the east side of the Verde River, near Black Mesa, approximately two miles northeast of Fort McDowell Reservation lands, and four miles east of the community of Rio Verde. The fire is burning in grass and brush in a remote area with limited road access for fire

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 12 Aug 2019 14:37:25 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 12 Aug 2019 15:24:18 GMT

Issued at 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 121433 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Henriette Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092019 900 AM MDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Henriette is a sheared tropical cyclone, with microwave and first-light visible satellite imagery revealing a low level center that is near the northeastern edge of the deep convection. The overall presentation of the cyclone has changed little over the past several hours, and therefore the initial intensity is being held at 35 kt. This is in agreement with an earlier ASCAT pass showing a very small area of 30-35 kt winds over the northwestern portion of the circulation. The initial motion is 295/10 kt. Henriette is expected to continue this general motion for the next 24 hours as it is steered by a mid-level ridge that extends from northern Mexico to the north of the cyclone. A turn to the west is expected on Tuesday as the system weakens and becomes steered by the low-level flow. The official forecast is slightly south of the previous one through 24 hours, due to a more southward initial position. Beyond 24 hours, the official forecast is very near the previous one, and near the middle of the consensus aids. Northeasterly shear and dry air over the northern portion of the cyclone should continue to keep the low level center near the edge of the deep convection into tonight, preventing any further strengthening. By 24 hours, the cyclone is forecast to cross the 26 C SST isotherm and move into a more stable airmass. This should cause the cyclone to lose its convection and weaken on Tuesday, with the system likely becoming a remnant low by Tuesday night. The official intensity forecast is close to the previous one, and is in agreement with the various dynamical and consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/1500Z 19.7N 112.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/0000Z 20.2N 113.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/1200Z 20.9N 116.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 14/0000Z 21.4N 118.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto/Pasch

Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 12 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 121432 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019 1500 UTC MON AUG 12 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 2 16(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) 20N 115W 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER LATTO/PASCH