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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST IA TO CENTRAL IL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today over the middle Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley. Damaging gusts are the primary risk but a few tornadoes are possible. ...Mid MS/OH Valley Region... An impressive amount of deep convection has developed over the central Plains early this morning ahead of a disturbance that should approach western IA by sunrise. A reservoir of untapped buoyancy currently extends ahead of the MCS over eastern KS which should aid eastward progression of organized convection into the beginning of the upcoming day1 period. Latest NAM model guidance suggests leading edge of this activity will be near the MO River at sunrise; however, current speed/movement of the convection is considerably faster and storms could advance into western IA by 09z. It's not entirely clear whether the MCS will slow its forward propagation so confidence in timing/placement of this complex of storms is somewhat in doubt. Current outlook is predicated on MCS slowing a bit toward sunrise. For these reasons have adjusted severe probs west across IA/northern MO to account for possible severe at the beginning of the period. If boundary layer is able to warm/destabilize ahead of this activity, as NAM currently depicts, environmental parameters would seem supportive of organized convection continuing downstream, with some upward evolution expected by late morning. If convection maintains MCS structure then damaging winds will be the primary threat. However, forecast soundings across southeast IA into west-central IL exhibit favorable CAPE/shear for supercells and possible tornadoes. Will introduce low tornado probs to account for possible discrete updrafts by early afternoon. ...Eastern Dakotas... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough over MT/WY shifting east toward the northern Plains. This feature is forecast to advance into the western Dakotas by 13/00z where it should aid scattered convection along/ahead of progressive wind shift. Hail/wind are the primary risks with scattered storms later today. ...ME... Weak mid-level height falls are forecast to spread south across ME later Monday. Deep westerly flow should allow boundary layer to warm such that inhibition is removed by 17z ahead of a zone of weak low-level confluence. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop across northern New England within a flow regime that could support storm organization capable of producing isolated damaging wind gusts. ..Darrow/Cook.. 08/12/2019 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Mon Aug 12 2019 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHEAST IA TO CENTRAL IL... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are likely today over the middle Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley. Damaging gusts are the primary risk but a few tornadoes are possible. ...Mid MS/OH Valley Region... An impressive amount of deep convection has developed over the central Plains early this morning ahead of a disturbance that should approach western IA by sunrise. A reservoir of untapped buoyancy currently extends ahead of the MCS over eastern KS which should aid eastward progression of organized convection into the beginning of the upcoming day1 period. Latest NAM model guidance suggests leading edge of this activity will be near the MO River at sunrise; however, current speed/movement of the convection is considerably faster and storms could advance into western IA by 09z. It's not entirely clear whether the MCS will slow its forward propagation so confidence in timing/placement of this complex of storms is somewhat in doubt. Current outlook is predicated on MCS slowing a bit toward sunrise. For these reasons have adjusted severe probs west across IA/northern MO to account for possible severe at the beginning of the period. If boundary layer is able to warm/destabilize ahead of this activity, as NAM currently depicts, environmental parameters would seem supportive of organized convection continuing downstream, with some upward evolution expected by late morning. If convection maintains MCS structure then damaging winds will be the primary threat. However, forecast soundings across southeast IA into west-central IL exhibit favorable CAPE/shear for supercells and possible tornadoes. Will introduce low tornado probs to account for possible discrete updrafts by early afternoon. ...Eastern Dakotas... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined short-wave trough over MT/WY shifting east toward the northern Plains. This feature is forecast to advance into the western Dakotas by 13/00z where it should aid scattered convection along/ahead of progressive wind shift. Hail/wind are the primary risks with scattered storms later today. ...ME... Weak mid-level height falls are forecast to spread south across ME later Monday. Deep westerly flow should allow boundary layer to warm such that inhibition is removed by 17z ahead of a zone of weak low-level confluence. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop across northern New England within a flow regime that could support storm organization capable of producing isolated damaging wind gusts. ..Darrow/Cook.. 08/12/2019 Read more

WW 0573 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 573 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW BHK TO 30 SE OLF TO 65 NNE OLF. ..KERR..08/12/19 ATTN...WFO...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 573 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC021-083-085-109-120640- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAWSON RICHLAND ROOSEVELT WIBAUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0573 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 573 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW BHK TO 30 SE OLF TO 65 NNE OLF. ..KERR..08/12/19 ATTN...WFO...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 573 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC021-083-085-109-120640- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAWSON RICHLAND ROOSEVELT WIBAUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 573 SEVERE TSTM MT 112305Z - 120700Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 573 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 505 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Montana * Effective this Sunday afternoon and Monday morning from 505 PM until 100 AM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms over central Montana will track east-northeastward across the watch area this evening. A few supercells and bow echoes capable of damaging winds and large hail are possible. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 85 miles west southwest of Glasgow MT to 10 miles north northeast of Sidney MT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 569...WW 570...WW 571...WW 572... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Hart Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 120516
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Aug 11 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Depression Nine-E, located a few hundred miles south of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An elongated area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
nearly 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula is associated with a trough of low pressure.
Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for
development during the next few days, and a tropical depression
could form later this week while the system moves west-
northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Nine-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Brown

000
ABNT20 KNHC 120516
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Aug 12 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

MD 1712 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 574... FOR SOUTHERN NEBRASKA/NORTHERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1712 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1130 PM CDT Sun Aug 11 2019 Areas affected...southern Nebraska/northern Kansas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 574... Valid 120430Z - 120630Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 574 continues. SUMMARY...Severe risk continues across WW 574 -- particularly across the north-central Kansas/south-central Nebraska border counties. Risk for damaging winds, including the possibility for winds in excess of 70 MPH, remains evident. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows a well-defined bow echo moving east-northeastward at 45 kt across the southern Nebraska/northern Kansas area, with the surging apex of the bow right along the border, affecting Harlon and Franklin Counties in Nebraska, and Phillips and Smith Counties in Kansas. While no obs sites have been in the direct path of the bow's apex, where the strongest winds are indicated by radar, gusts in excess of 70 MPH appear likely to be occurring. With a very moist/unstable airmass downstream of the convection available to continue to fuel stout updrafts, expect damaging wind risk to continue spreading across the watch area. ..Goss.. 08/12/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD... LAT...LON 38730022 39050033 40840038 41099636 39249659 38730022 Read more

WW 0572 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 572 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE GLD TO 25 E GLD TO 40 S MCK TO 20 WSW MCK TO 55 ENE SNY. ..GOSS..08/12/19 ATTN...WFO...GLD...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 572 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC039-063-109-179-193-120440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DECATUR GOVE LOGAN SHERIDAN THOMAS NEC063-085-087-101-111-135-145-120440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRONTIER HAYES HITCHCOCK KEITH LINCOLN PERKINS RED WILLOW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0572 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 572 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE GLD TO 25 E GLD TO 40 S MCK TO 20 WSW MCK TO 55 ENE SNY. ..GOSS..08/12/19 ATTN...WFO...GLD...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 572 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC039-063-109-179-193-120440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DECATUR GOVE LOGAN SHERIDAN THOMAS NEC063-085-087-101-111-135-145-120440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRONTIER HAYES HITCHCOCK KEITH LINCOLN PERKINS RED WILLOW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0572 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 572 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE GLD TO 25 E GLD TO 40 S MCK TO 20 WSW MCK TO 55 ENE SNY. ..GOSS..08/12/19 ATTN...WFO...GLD...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 572 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC039-063-109-179-193-120440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DECATUR GOVE LOGAN SHERIDAN THOMAS NEC063-085-087-101-111-135-145-120440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRONTIER HAYES HITCHCOCK KEITH LINCOLN PERKINS RED WILLOW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0572 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 572 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 SSE GLD TO 25 E GLD TO 40 S MCK TO 20 WSW MCK TO 55 ENE SNY. ..GOSS..08/12/19 ATTN...WFO...GLD...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 572 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC039-063-109-179-193-120440- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DECATUR GOVE LOGAN SHERIDAN THOMAS NEC063-085-087-101-111-135-145-120440- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FRONTIER HAYES HITCHCOCK KEITH LINCOLN PERKINS RED WILLOW THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 572 TORNADO CO KS NE 112045Z - 120400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 572 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Far eastern Colorado Northwest Kansas Southwest Nebraska * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until 1000 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 85 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Multiple discrete supercells will develop into far eastern Colorado with all severe hazards possible. These storms will likely consolidate and evolve into a bowing MCS that accelerates east along the Kansas-Nebraska border. This will yield an increasing risk for significant severe wind gusts later this evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles north and south of a line from 65 miles west southwest of Imperial NE to 25 miles south southeast of Mccook NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 569...WW 570...WW 571... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 75 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 25035. ...Grams Read more

WW 0573 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 573 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW MLS TO 50 N MLS TO 30 SW OLF TO 25 WNW OLF TO 35 NE GGW TO 60 NNE GGW. ..COOK..08/12/19 ATTN...WFO...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 573 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC021-055-079-083-085-109-120440- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAWSON MCCONE PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROOSEVELT WIBAUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0573 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 573 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 NW MLS TO 50 N MLS TO 30 SW OLF TO 25 WNW OLF TO 35 NE GGW TO 60 NNE GGW. ..COOK..08/12/19 ATTN...WFO...GGW... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 573 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MTC021-055-079-083-085-109-120440- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAWSON MCCONE PRAIRIE RICHLAND ROOSEVELT WIBAUX THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 120251 TCDEP4 Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092019 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019 The broad low pressure system that the NHC has been tracking the past several days has finally developed a well-defined surface circulation and enough organized deep convection to be classified as a tropical depression. A late-arriving 1716Z ASCAT-C scatterometer pass indicated the surface wind field was possibly closed at that time, but since then deep convection with tops of -75C to -80C have persisted near and to the west of the mid-level circulation center, suggesting that a low-level center has likely closed off now. Dvorak satellite intensity estimates are T1.5/25 kt from both TAFB and SAB, but the initial intensity is set at 30 kt based on 30-31 kt winds indicated in the aforementioned scatterometer data. The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward or 295/12 kt, based primarily on scatterometer and passive microwave fixes. The small cyclone is expected to move west-northwestward around the southern periphery of a deep-layer ridge for the next 3 days until dissipation occurs. The NHC track forecast lies near the southern portion of the guidance envelope, between the TVCE consensus model and the ECMWF-ensemble mean model. The small cyclone only has about 36 hours to strengthen before the system moves over sub-26 deg C SSTs. The shear is forecast to be low at less than 10 kt for the next 72 hours or so, even decreasing to near 5 kt in 24-36 h, which would normally result in significant development. However, intermittent intrusions of dry mid-level air are expected to disrupt the typical intensification process, thus only modest strengthening is forecast through 36 h, after which much cooler waters will induce a weakening trend. The official intensity forecast closely follows a blend of the HCCA and IVCN intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0300Z 18.9N 109.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1200Z 19.4N 111.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 13/0000Z 20.3N 113.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 13/1200Z 21.3N 115.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 14/0000Z 22.1N 117.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0000Z 23.7N 123.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 16/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 12 Aug 2019 02:49:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 12 Aug 2019 03:24:28 GMT

Issued at 0300 UTC MON AUG 12 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 120248 PWSEP4 TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092019 0300 UTC MON AUG 12 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 110W 34 5 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 34 27 4(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) ISLA CLARION 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X 4( 4) 16(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER STEWART

Issued at 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 120248 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092019 900 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 2019 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 109.8W ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of newly formed Tropical Depression Nine-E was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 109.8 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening will be possible for the next day or so, and the depression could become a tropical storm on Monday. Weakening is expected on Tuesday and the system forecast to become a remnant low by late Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS WELL SOUTH OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... As of 9:00 PM MDT Sun Aug 11 the center of Nine-E was located near 18.9, -109.8 with movement WNW at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.