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WW 0667 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 667 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 110 S BVE TO 50 S BVE TO 15 SSW BVE TO 20 W BVE TO 30 E HUM TO 5 NE HUM TO 20 WNW HUM TO 40 WNW HUM TO 45 NW HUM TO 50 SW MCB. ..JEWELL..09/11/24 ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 667 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-047-051-057-063-071-075-087-089-093-095-103-105-117- 120040- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION IBERVILLE JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA WASHINGTON MSC045-047-059-109-120040- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON PEARL RIVER GMZ530-532-534-536-538-555-557-575-577-632-650-670-120040- Read more

WW 667 TORNADO LA MS CW 111740Z - 120400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 667 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southern Louisiana Far Southern Mississippi Coastal Waters * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 1240 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Several tornadoes likely SUMMARY...Hurricane Francine will continue to approach the southern Louisiana coast and move inland as it progresses northeastward across the region through tonight. The potential for tornadoes is expected to increase through the afternoon and early evening. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles north and south of a line from 60 miles west southwest of Houma LA to 40 miles east southeast of Gulfport MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 16045. ...Guyer Read more

MD 2054 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN IDAHO INTO SOUTHWESTERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 2054 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Areas affected...Portions of southern Idaho into southwestern Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 112026Z - 112300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon posing a risk of severe hail and wind. The severe threat is expected to be too isolated and marginal to warrant a severe thunderstorm watch. DISCUSSION...A potent shortwave trough evident in water vapor imagery this afternoon is nosing into southwestern Idaho. As a result of the corresponding focused ascent, thunderstorms will continue to increase in coverage and intensity across the area through the afternoon and evening hours. Despite strong forcing for ascent and sufficient shear for supercells and organized storm modes, the moisture and instability are rather modest. Consequently, storms will be relatively high based, which will favor strong evaporative cooling and isolated severe gusts through the evening hours. Additionally, strong outflow winds from these thunderstorms will likely impact existing fires across the region, which may hinder fire suppression/containment efforts. ..Jirak/Guyer.. 09/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TFX...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN... LAT...LON 43431733 44231670 45571521 46281430 46781351 46841240 46421176 45791135 44651137 43871199 43161318 42471464 42131610 41951702 42401729 43431733 Read more

MD 2053 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 667... FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
Mesoscale Discussion 2053 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0323 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Areas affected...portions of southern and eastern Louisiana into southern Mississippi Concerning...Tornado Watch 667... Valid 112023Z - 112200Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 667 continues. SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Tornado Watch 667. A brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Multiple transient supercells, embedded within the broader rainbands associated with Hurricane Francine, have percolated in intensity and organization over the past few hours across southeast LA and adjacent areas offshore. However, a widespread and persistent rain-shield has limited diurnal heating, with surface temperatures barely exceeding the mid 70s F amid mid 70s F dewpoints. The resultant thermodynamic profiles yields scant buoyancy inland, with MLCAPE limited to 500 J/kg (perhaps less in spots), which is likely tempering tornado potential. Nonetheless, HDC VAD profiler trends show hodographs increasing in size and curvature as vertical wind fields increase in intensity with the approach of Francine's center. As such, a couple of brief tornadoes cannot be ruled out where any longer-lived, sustained supercell structure can traverse a favorable overlapping buoyancy/shear parameter space. ..Squitieri.. 09/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH... LAT...LON 29119144 29559204 29919209 30189163 30359087 30478862 30478846 30418846 30238859 29928872 29308895 28968928 28908966 28909051 29119144 Read more

WW 0667 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 667 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SQUITIERI..09/11/24 ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 667 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-045-047-051-057-063-071-075-087-089-093-095-099-101- 103-105-109-117-112140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION IBERIA IBERVILLE JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. MARTIN ST. MARY ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA TERREBONNE WASHINGTON MSC045-047-059-109-112140- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON PEARL RIVER GMZ435-436-455-530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575- 577-632-650-670-112140- Read more

WW 0667 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 667 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SQUITIERI..09/11/24 ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 667 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-045-047-051-057-063-071-075-087-089-093-095-099-101- 103-105-109-117-112140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION IBERIA IBERVILLE JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. MARTIN ST. MARY ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA TERREBONNE WASHINGTON MSC045-047-059-109-112140- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON PEARL RIVER GMZ435-436-455-530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575- 577-632-650-670-112140- Read more

WW 0667 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 667 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SQUITIERI..09/11/24 ATTN...WFO...LIX...LCH...MOB... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 667 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS LAC005-007-045-047-051-057-063-071-075-087-089-093-095-099-101- 103-105-109-117-112140- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE ASCENSION ASSUMPTION IBERIA IBERVILLE JEFFERSON LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST ST. MARTIN ST. MARY ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA TERREBONNE WASHINGTON MSC045-047-059-109-112140- MS . MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON PEARL RIVER GMZ435-436-455-530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575- 577-632-650-670-112140- Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Fire weather concerns are generally expected to be on a downward trend during the extended period. Upper-level troughs will be impact portions of the West. Precipitation associated with these troughs should moderate fuels from the Great Basin into the Northwest and northern Rockies. Localized concerns are possible, but overall critical fire weather potential is low and uncertain. ...Portions of southern Great Lakes Region... With the upper-ridge building into the Great Lakes late this week, the expectation is for hot/dry conditions to continue. The remnant circulation of TC Francine is also forecast to move into the mid-Mississippi Valley during the same time frame. Some increase in surface winds is possible as this occurs. Given drying fuels, some fire weather concerns could develop where RH can fall low enough coincident with stronger surface winds. It is uncertain where this overlap will occur, if at all. No highlights will be added. ...Great Basin... Some areas of dry and breezy conditions appear possible as upper troughs swing through the region. However, precipitation is also expected. While local fire weather concerns are possible next week, the overall fire environment is expected to moderate and critical fire weather potential is low. ..Wendt.. 09/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Fire weather concerns are generally expected to be on a downward trend during the extended period. Upper-level troughs will be impact portions of the West. Precipitation associated with these troughs should moderate fuels from the Great Basin into the Northwest and northern Rockies. Localized concerns are possible, but overall critical fire weather potential is low and uncertain. ...Portions of southern Great Lakes Region... With the upper-ridge building into the Great Lakes late this week, the expectation is for hot/dry conditions to continue. The remnant circulation of TC Francine is also forecast to move into the mid-Mississippi Valley during the same time frame. Some increase in surface winds is possible as this occurs. Given drying fuels, some fire weather concerns could develop where RH can fall low enough coincident with stronger surface winds. It is uncertain where this overlap will occur, if at all. No highlights will be added. ...Great Basin... Some areas of dry and breezy conditions appear possible as upper troughs swing through the region. However, precipitation is also expected. While local fire weather concerns are possible next week, the overall fire environment is expected to moderate and critical fire weather potential is low. ..Wendt.. 09/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Fire weather concerns are generally expected to be on a downward trend during the extended period. Upper-level troughs will be impact portions of the West. Precipitation associated with these troughs should moderate fuels from the Great Basin into the Northwest and northern Rockies. Localized concerns are possible, but overall critical fire weather potential is low and uncertain. ...Portions of southern Great Lakes Region... With the upper-ridge building into the Great Lakes late this week, the expectation is for hot/dry conditions to continue. The remnant circulation of TC Francine is also forecast to move into the mid-Mississippi Valley during the same time frame. Some increase in surface winds is possible as this occurs. Given drying fuels, some fire weather concerns could develop where RH can fall low enough coincident with stronger surface winds. It is uncertain where this overlap will occur, if at all. No highlights will be added. ...Great Basin... Some areas of dry and breezy conditions appear possible as upper troughs swing through the region. However, precipitation is also expected. While local fire weather concerns are possible next week, the overall fire environment is expected to moderate and critical fire weather potential is low. ..Wendt.. 09/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Fire weather concerns are generally expected to be on a downward trend during the extended period. Upper-level troughs will be impact portions of the West. Precipitation associated with these troughs should moderate fuels from the Great Basin into the Northwest and northern Rockies. Localized concerns are possible, but overall critical fire weather potential is low and uncertain. ...Portions of southern Great Lakes Region... With the upper-ridge building into the Great Lakes late this week, the expectation is for hot/dry conditions to continue. The remnant circulation of TC Francine is also forecast to move into the mid-Mississippi Valley during the same time frame. Some increase in surface winds is possible as this occurs. Given drying fuels, some fire weather concerns could develop where RH can fall low enough coincident with stronger surface winds. It is uncertain where this overlap will occur, if at all. No highlights will be added. ...Great Basin... Some areas of dry and breezy conditions appear possible as upper troughs swing through the region. However, precipitation is also expected. While local fire weather concerns are possible next week, the overall fire environment is expected to moderate and critical fire weather potential is low. ..Wendt.. 09/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Fire weather concerns are generally expected to be on a downward trend during the extended period. Upper-level troughs will be impact portions of the West. Precipitation associated with these troughs should moderate fuels from the Great Basin into the Northwest and northern Rockies. Localized concerns are possible, but overall critical fire weather potential is low and uncertain. ...Portions of southern Great Lakes Region... With the upper-ridge building into the Great Lakes late this week, the expectation is for hot/dry conditions to continue. The remnant circulation of TC Francine is also forecast to move into the mid-Mississippi Valley during the same time frame. Some increase in surface winds is possible as this occurs. Given drying fuels, some fire weather concerns could develop where RH can fall low enough coincident with stronger surface winds. It is uncertain where this overlap will occur, if at all. No highlights will be added. ...Great Basin... Some areas of dry and breezy conditions appear possible as upper troughs swing through the region. However, precipitation is also expected. While local fire weather concerns are possible next week, the overall fire environment is expected to moderate and critical fire weather potential is low. ..Wendt.. 09/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Fire weather concerns are generally expected to be on a downward trend during the extended period. Upper-level troughs will be impact portions of the West. Precipitation associated with these troughs should moderate fuels from the Great Basin into the Northwest and northern Rockies. Localized concerns are possible, but overall critical fire weather potential is low and uncertain. ...Portions of southern Great Lakes Region... With the upper-ridge building into the Great Lakes late this week, the expectation is for hot/dry conditions to continue. The remnant circulation of TC Francine is also forecast to move into the mid-Mississippi Valley during the same time frame. Some increase in surface winds is possible as this occurs. Given drying fuels, some fire weather concerns could develop where RH can fall low enough coincident with stronger surface winds. It is uncertain where this overlap will occur, if at all. No highlights will be added. ...Great Basin... Some areas of dry and breezy conditions appear possible as upper troughs swing through the region. However, precipitation is also expected. While local fire weather concerns are possible next week, the overall fire environment is expected to moderate and critical fire weather potential is low. ..Wendt.. 09/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Fire weather concerns are generally expected to be on a downward trend during the extended period. Upper-level troughs will be impact portions of the West. Precipitation associated with these troughs should moderate fuels from the Great Basin into the Northwest and northern Rockies. Localized concerns are possible, but overall critical fire weather potential is low and uncertain. ...Portions of southern Great Lakes Region... With the upper-ridge building into the Great Lakes late this week, the expectation is for hot/dry conditions to continue. The remnant circulation of TC Francine is also forecast to move into the mid-Mississippi Valley during the same time frame. Some increase in surface winds is possible as this occurs. Given drying fuels, some fire weather concerns could develop where RH can fall low enough coincident with stronger surface winds. It is uncertain where this overlap will occur, if at all. No highlights will be added. ...Great Basin... Some areas of dry and breezy conditions appear possible as upper troughs swing through the region. However, precipitation is also expected. While local fire weather concerns are possible next week, the overall fire environment is expected to moderate and critical fire weather potential is low. ..Wendt.. 09/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Fire weather concerns are generally expected to be on a downward trend during the extended period. Upper-level troughs will be impact portions of the West. Precipitation associated with these troughs should moderate fuels from the Great Basin into the Northwest and northern Rockies. Localized concerns are possible, but overall critical fire weather potential is low and uncertain. ...Portions of southern Great Lakes Region... With the upper-ridge building into the Great Lakes late this week, the expectation is for hot/dry conditions to continue. The remnant circulation of TC Francine is also forecast to move into the mid-Mississippi Valley during the same time frame. Some increase in surface winds is possible as this occurs. Given drying fuels, some fire weather concerns could develop where RH can fall low enough coincident with stronger surface winds. It is uncertain where this overlap will occur, if at all. No highlights will be added. ...Great Basin... Some areas of dry and breezy conditions appear possible as upper troughs swing through the region. However, precipitation is also expected. While local fire weather concerns are possible next week, the overall fire environment is expected to moderate and critical fire weather potential is low. ..Wendt.. 09/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Fire weather concerns are generally expected to be on a downward trend during the extended period. Upper-level troughs will be impact portions of the West. Precipitation associated with these troughs should moderate fuels from the Great Basin into the Northwest and northern Rockies. Localized concerns are possible, but overall critical fire weather potential is low and uncertain. ...Portions of southern Great Lakes Region... With the upper-ridge building into the Great Lakes late this week, the expectation is for hot/dry conditions to continue. The remnant circulation of TC Francine is also forecast to move into the mid-Mississippi Valley during the same time frame. Some increase in surface winds is possible as this occurs. Given drying fuels, some fire weather concerns could develop where RH can fall low enough coincident with stronger surface winds. It is uncertain where this overlap will occur, if at all. No highlights will be added. ...Great Basin... Some areas of dry and breezy conditions appear possible as upper troughs swing through the region. However, precipitation is also expected. While local fire weather concerns are possible next week, the overall fire environment is expected to moderate and critical fire weather potential is low. ..Wendt.. 09/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0343 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Fire weather concerns are generally expected to be on a downward trend during the extended period. Upper-level troughs will be impact portions of the West. Precipitation associated with these troughs should moderate fuels from the Great Basin into the Northwest and northern Rockies. Localized concerns are possible, but overall critical fire weather potential is low and uncertain. ...Portions of southern Great Lakes Region... With the upper-ridge building into the Great Lakes late this week, the expectation is for hot/dry conditions to continue. The remnant circulation of TC Francine is also forecast to move into the mid-Mississippi Valley during the same time frame. Some increase in surface winds is possible as this occurs. Given drying fuels, some fire weather concerns could develop where RH can fall low enough coincident with stronger surface winds. It is uncertain where this overlap will occur, if at all. No highlights will be added. ...Great Basin... Some areas of dry and breezy conditions appear possible as upper troughs swing through the region. However, precipitation is also expected. While local fire weather concerns are possible next week, the overall fire environment is expected to moderate and critical fire weather potential is low. ..Wendt.. 09/11/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Sep 11 20:03:07 UTC 2024.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Hurricane Francine will pose a tornado threat through tonight across the middle Gulf Coast region. ...20z Update... The forecast remains on track with no changes needed to the current D1 Outlook. Hurricane Francine continues to move northeastward, with an increasing threat for tornadoes expected across southern Louisiana shifting into southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida panhandle this evening. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024/ ...Gulf Coast - Hurricane Francine... Hurricane Francine will continue to generally move northeastward toward the southern Louisiana coast. Reference NHC for the latest forecast track and intensity details. As Francine approaches the coast later this afternoon into evening, a considerable strengthening of east-southeasterly winds on its east-northeast periphery will lead to an increasing near-shore/inland supercell risk. This will be in tandem with a northward shift of a maritime warm front and associated moisture-rich air, which will tend to stay with about 50-75 miles within the Gulf Coast spanning southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The supercell/tornado risk is expected to steadily increase this afternoon across southeast Louisiana, transitioning northeastward toward southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into this evening and overnight, with a few tornadoes possible regionally. ...Northern Rockies and northern High Plains... High-based thunderstorms are expected to pose an isolated severe risk late this afternoon into evening, with severe-caliber wind gusts a possibility, along with some hail possible as well across the northern Rockies including parts of Idaho and western Montana. This is influenced by the lead portion of a Pacific Northwest upper-level trough, with preceding height falls and the exit region of the upper jet overspreading the northern Rockies and northern High Plains through tonight. Thunderstorms should increase in coverage/intensity by late afternoon, especially from far southeast Oregon into southern Idaho, southern Montana and northwest Wyoming. Around 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE coincident with 25-35 kt of effective shear will support clusters and bands of storms capable of hail and stronger wind gusts. Additional widely scattered storms are expected across the northern High Plains within a modestly moist environment. Dry sub-cloud layers will support the potential for stronger downdrafts and the possibility of some severe-caliber wind gusts. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Hurricane Francine will pose a tornado threat through tonight across the middle Gulf Coast region. ...20z Update... The forecast remains on track with no changes needed to the current D1 Outlook. Hurricane Francine continues to move northeastward, with an increasing threat for tornadoes expected across southern Louisiana shifting into southeastern Mississippi, southern Alabama, and the Florida panhandle this evening. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Guyer.. 09/11/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Wed Sep 11 2024/ ...Gulf Coast - Hurricane Francine... Hurricane Francine will continue to generally move northeastward toward the southern Louisiana coast. Reference NHC for the latest forecast track and intensity details. As Francine approaches the coast later this afternoon into evening, a considerable strengthening of east-southeasterly winds on its east-northeast periphery will lead to an increasing near-shore/inland supercell risk. This will be in tandem with a northward shift of a maritime warm front and associated moisture-rich air, which will tend to stay with about 50-75 miles within the Gulf Coast spanning southeast Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle. The supercell/tornado risk is expected to steadily increase this afternoon across southeast Louisiana, transitioning northeastward toward southeast Mississippi, southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle into this evening and overnight, with a few tornadoes possible regionally. ...Northern Rockies and northern High Plains... High-based thunderstorms are expected to pose an isolated severe risk late this afternoon into evening, with severe-caliber wind gusts a possibility, along with some hail possible as well across the northern Rockies including parts of Idaho and western Montana. This is influenced by the lead portion of a Pacific Northwest upper-level trough, with preceding height falls and the exit region of the upper jet overspreading the northern Rockies and northern High Plains through tonight. Thunderstorms should increase in coverage/intensity by late afternoon, especially from far southeast Oregon into southern Idaho, southern Montana and northwest Wyoming. Around 250-750 J/kg MLCAPE coincident with 25-35 kt of effective shear will support clusters and bands of storms capable of hail and stronger wind gusts. Additional widely scattered storms are expected across the northern High Plains within a modestly moist environment. Dry sub-cloud layers will support the potential for stronger downdrafts and the possibility of some severe-caliber wind gusts. Read more