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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mature mid/upper-level cyclone will move from the Great Lakes/OH Valley to the East Coast today. Modest low-level warm advection may support occasional elevated thunderstorms to the north of a front near Long Island NY. This activity should generally remain offshore. Otherwise, isolated lightning flashes may be noted with shallow convection today across parts of the central Appalachians, beneath cold mid-level temperatures associated with the upper low. Although low-level moisture and related MUCAPE are both forecast to remain meager, some of this activity may acquire sufficient depth to support charge separation. Finally, isolated convection producing occasional lightning may brush parts of the WA Coast through this afternoon. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mature mid/upper-level cyclone will move from the Great Lakes/OH Valley to the East Coast today. Modest low-level warm advection may support occasional elevated thunderstorms to the north of a front near Long Island NY. This activity should generally remain offshore. Otherwise, isolated lightning flashes may be noted with shallow convection today across parts of the central Appalachians, beneath cold mid-level temperatures associated with the upper low. Although low-level moisture and related MUCAPE are both forecast to remain meager, some of this activity may acquire sufficient depth to support charge separation. Finally, isolated convection producing occasional lightning may brush parts of the WA Coast through this afternoon. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mature mid/upper-level cyclone will move from the Great Lakes/OH Valley to the East Coast today. Modest low-level warm advection may support occasional elevated thunderstorms to the north of a front near Long Island NY. This activity should generally remain offshore. Otherwise, isolated lightning flashes may be noted with shallow convection today across parts of the central Appalachians, beneath cold mid-level temperatures associated with the upper low. Although low-level moisture and related MUCAPE are both forecast to remain meager, some of this activity may acquire sufficient depth to support charge separation. Finally, isolated convection producing occasional lightning may brush parts of the WA Coast through this afternoon. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mature mid/upper-level cyclone will move from the Great Lakes/OH Valley to the East Coast today. Modest low-level warm advection may support occasional elevated thunderstorms to the north of a front near Long Island NY. This activity should generally remain offshore. Otherwise, isolated lightning flashes may be noted with shallow convection today across parts of the central Appalachians, beneath cold mid-level temperatures associated with the upper low. Although low-level moisture and related MUCAPE are both forecast to remain meager, some of this activity may acquire sufficient depth to support charge separation. Finally, isolated convection producing occasional lightning may brush parts of the WA Coast through this afternoon. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/21/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0630 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Valid 211300Z - 221200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today and tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A mature mid/upper-level cyclone will move from the Great Lakes/OH Valley to the East Coast today. Modest low-level warm advection may support occasional elevated thunderstorms to the north of a front near Long Island NY. This activity should generally remain offshore. Otherwise, isolated lightning flashes may be noted with shallow convection today across parts of the central Appalachians, beneath cold mid-level temperatures associated with the upper low. Although low-level moisture and related MUCAPE are both forecast to remain meager, some of this activity may acquire sufficient depth to support charge separation. Finally, isolated convection producing occasional lightning may brush parts of the WA Coast through this afternoon. ..Gleason/Kerr.. 11/21/2024 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models indicate a relatively strong zonal pattern over much of the CONUS for Sun/D4 into Mon/D5, with a shortwave trough skirting the Great Lakes area. Then, through the Thu/D8 period, there is a possibility of a low-amplitude trough amplification within this strong belt of flow, moving across the southern Plains and Southeast. Predictability for this later scenario is low at this time, as there is little run-to-run consistency. However, the air mass over the western Gulf of Mexico, spreading into the lower MS Valley, will become progressively more moist and unstable each day, and severe weather may become possible in those areas. The initial more robust moisture return from southeast TX across LA and southern MS/AL may be accompanied by substantial clouds and precipitation, but stronger destabilization will be possible as the warm front potentially moves north into the Wed/D7 to Thu/D8 time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models indicate a relatively strong zonal pattern over much of the CONUS for Sun/D4 into Mon/D5, with a shortwave trough skirting the Great Lakes area. Then, through the Thu/D8 period, there is a possibility of a low-amplitude trough amplification within this strong belt of flow, moving across the southern Plains and Southeast. Predictability for this later scenario is low at this time, as there is little run-to-run consistency. However, the air mass over the western Gulf of Mexico, spreading into the lower MS Valley, will become progressively more moist and unstable each day, and severe weather may become possible in those areas. The initial more robust moisture return from southeast TX across LA and southern MS/AL may be accompanied by substantial clouds and precipitation, but stronger destabilization will be possible as the warm front potentially moves north into the Wed/D7 to Thu/D8 time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models indicate a relatively strong zonal pattern over much of the CONUS for Sun/D4 into Mon/D5, with a shortwave trough skirting the Great Lakes area. Then, through the Thu/D8 period, there is a possibility of a low-amplitude trough amplification within this strong belt of flow, moving across the southern Plains and Southeast. Predictability for this later scenario is low at this time, as there is little run-to-run consistency. However, the air mass over the western Gulf of Mexico, spreading into the lower MS Valley, will become progressively more moist and unstable each day, and severe weather may become possible in those areas. The initial more robust moisture return from southeast TX across LA and southern MS/AL may be accompanied by substantial clouds and precipitation, but stronger destabilization will be possible as the warm front potentially moves north into the Wed/D7 to Thu/D8 time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models indicate a relatively strong zonal pattern over much of the CONUS for Sun/D4 into Mon/D5, with a shortwave trough skirting the Great Lakes area. Then, through the Thu/D8 period, there is a possibility of a low-amplitude trough amplification within this strong belt of flow, moving across the southern Plains and Southeast. Predictability for this later scenario is low at this time, as there is little run-to-run consistency. However, the air mass over the western Gulf of Mexico, spreading into the lower MS Valley, will become progressively more moist and unstable each day, and severe weather may become possible in those areas. The initial more robust moisture return from southeast TX across LA and southern MS/AL may be accompanied by substantial clouds and precipitation, but stronger destabilization will be possible as the warm front potentially moves north into the Wed/D7 to Thu/D8 time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models indicate a relatively strong zonal pattern over much of the CONUS for Sun/D4 into Mon/D5, with a shortwave trough skirting the Great Lakes area. Then, through the Thu/D8 period, there is a possibility of a low-amplitude trough amplification within this strong belt of flow, moving across the southern Plains and Southeast. Predictability for this later scenario is low at this time, as there is little run-to-run consistency. However, the air mass over the western Gulf of Mexico, spreading into the lower MS Valley, will become progressively more moist and unstable each day, and severe weather may become possible in those areas. The initial more robust moisture return from southeast TX across LA and southern MS/AL may be accompanied by substantial clouds and precipitation, but stronger destabilization will be possible as the warm front potentially moves north into the Wed/D7 to Thu/D8 time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models indicate a relatively strong zonal pattern over much of the CONUS for Sun/D4 into Mon/D5, with a shortwave trough skirting the Great Lakes area. Then, through the Thu/D8 period, there is a possibility of a low-amplitude trough amplification within this strong belt of flow, moving across the southern Plains and Southeast. Predictability for this later scenario is low at this time, as there is little run-to-run consistency. However, the air mass over the western Gulf of Mexico, spreading into the lower MS Valley, will become progressively more moist and unstable each day, and severe weather may become possible in those areas. The initial more robust moisture return from southeast TX across LA and southern MS/AL may be accompanied by substantial clouds and precipitation, but stronger destabilization will be possible as the warm front potentially moves north into the Wed/D7 to Thu/D8 time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models indicate a relatively strong zonal pattern over much of the CONUS for Sun/D4 into Mon/D5, with a shortwave trough skirting the Great Lakes area. Then, through the Thu/D8 period, there is a possibility of a low-amplitude trough amplification within this strong belt of flow, moving across the southern Plains and Southeast. Predictability for this later scenario is low at this time, as there is little run-to-run consistency. However, the air mass over the western Gulf of Mexico, spreading into the lower MS Valley, will become progressively more moist and unstable each day, and severe weather may become possible in those areas. The initial more robust moisture return from southeast TX across LA and southern MS/AL may be accompanied by substantial clouds and precipitation, but stronger destabilization will be possible as the warm front potentially moves north into the Wed/D7 to Thu/D8 time frame. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Valid 241200Z - 291200Z ...DISCUSSION... Models indicate a relatively strong zonal pattern over much of the CONUS for Sun/D4 into Mon/D5, with a shortwave trough skirting the Great Lakes area. Then, through the Thu/D8 period, there is a possibility of a low-amplitude trough amplification within this strong belt of flow, moving across the southern Plains and Southeast. Predictability for this later scenario is low at this time, as there is little run-to-run consistency. However, the air mass over the western Gulf of Mexico, spreading into the lower MS Valley, will become progressively more moist and unstable each day, and severe weather may become possible in those areas. The initial more robust moisture return from southeast TX across LA and southern MS/AL may be accompanied by substantial clouds and precipitation, but stronger destabilization will be possible as the warm front potentially moves north into the Wed/D7 to Thu/D8 time frame. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely across the USA on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A temporary/weakening upper ridge will exist over the Plains, with a departing trough over the Northeast and a broad region of west/southwest flow aloft over the West. By 12Z Sunday, this ridge will all but disappear due in part to an upper wave from MT into ND, and continued height falls across the West. The beginnings of moisture return will develop over TX in response to lower pressure over the Plains, with 50s F dewpoints primarily away from coast. Little if any instability is forecast across the entire CONUS through the period, and as such thunderstorms are not expected. ..Jewell.. 11/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely across the USA on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A temporary/weakening upper ridge will exist over the Plains, with a departing trough over the Northeast and a broad region of west/southwest flow aloft over the West. By 12Z Sunday, this ridge will all but disappear due in part to an upper wave from MT into ND, and continued height falls across the West. The beginnings of moisture return will develop over TX in response to lower pressure over the Plains, with 50s F dewpoints primarily away from coast. Little if any instability is forecast across the entire CONUS through the period, and as such thunderstorms are not expected. ..Jewell.. 11/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely across the USA on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A temporary/weakening upper ridge will exist over the Plains, with a departing trough over the Northeast and a broad region of west/southwest flow aloft over the West. By 12Z Sunday, this ridge will all but disappear due in part to an upper wave from MT into ND, and continued height falls across the West. The beginnings of moisture return will develop over TX in response to lower pressure over the Plains, with 50s F dewpoints primarily away from coast. Little if any instability is forecast across the entire CONUS through the period, and as such thunderstorms are not expected. ..Jewell.. 11/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely across the USA on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A temporary/weakening upper ridge will exist over the Plains, with a departing trough over the Northeast and a broad region of west/southwest flow aloft over the West. By 12Z Sunday, this ridge will all but disappear due in part to an upper wave from MT into ND, and continued height falls across the West. The beginnings of moisture return will develop over TX in response to lower pressure over the Plains, with 50s F dewpoints primarily away from coast. Little if any instability is forecast across the entire CONUS through the period, and as such thunderstorms are not expected. ..Jewell.. 11/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely across the USA on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A temporary/weakening upper ridge will exist over the Plains, with a departing trough over the Northeast and a broad region of west/southwest flow aloft over the West. By 12Z Sunday, this ridge will all but disappear due in part to an upper wave from MT into ND, and continued height falls across the West. The beginnings of moisture return will develop over TX in response to lower pressure over the Plains, with 50s F dewpoints primarily away from coast. Little if any instability is forecast across the entire CONUS through the period, and as such thunderstorms are not expected. ..Jewell.. 11/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely across the USA on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A temporary/weakening upper ridge will exist over the Plains, with a departing trough over the Northeast and a broad region of west/southwest flow aloft over the West. By 12Z Sunday, this ridge will all but disappear due in part to an upper wave from MT into ND, and continued height falls across the West. The beginnings of moisture return will develop over TX in response to lower pressure over the Plains, with 50s F dewpoints primarily away from coast. Little if any instability is forecast across the entire CONUS through the period, and as such thunderstorms are not expected. ..Jewell.. 11/21/2024 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0148 AM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms appear unlikely across the USA on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A temporary/weakening upper ridge will exist over the Plains, with a departing trough over the Northeast and a broad region of west/southwest flow aloft over the West. By 12Z Sunday, this ridge will all but disappear due in part to an upper wave from MT into ND, and continued height falls across the West. The beginnings of moisture return will develop over TX in response to lower pressure over the Plains, with 50s F dewpoints primarily away from coast. Little if any instability is forecast across the entire CONUS through the period, and as such thunderstorms are not expected. ..Jewell.. 11/21/2024 Read more