Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough over the West will deamplify, though moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the Rockies will maintain a lee trough/dryline along the central/southern High Plains. Behind the dryline over northeastern NM into the TX Panhandle, breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will develop in response to a weak lee cyclone over the TX/OK Panhandles. These winds will overlap a hot/dry boundary layer during the afternoon, potentially yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough over the West will deamplify, though moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the Rockies will maintain a lee trough/dryline along the central/southern High Plains. Behind the dryline over northeastern NM into the TX Panhandle, breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will develop in response to a weak lee cyclone over the TX/OK Panhandles. These winds will overlap a hot/dry boundary layer during the afternoon, potentially yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough over the West will deamplify, though moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the Rockies will maintain a lee trough/dryline along the central/southern High Plains. Behind the dryline over northeastern NM into the TX Panhandle, breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will develop in response to a weak lee cyclone over the TX/OK Panhandles. These winds will overlap a hot/dry boundary layer during the afternoon, potentially yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough over the West will deamplify, though moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the Rockies will maintain a lee trough/dryline along the central/southern High Plains. Behind the dryline over northeastern NM into the TX Panhandle, breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will develop in response to a weak lee cyclone over the TX/OK Panhandles. These winds will overlap a hot/dry boundary layer during the afternoon, potentially yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131700Z - 141200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... No changes. See previous discussion below. ..Bentley.. 09/13/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024/ ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough over the West will deamplify, though moderate west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the Rockies will maintain a lee trough/dryline along the central/southern High Plains. Behind the dryline over northeastern NM into the TX Panhandle, breezy west-southwesterly surface winds will develop in response to a weak lee cyclone over the TX/OK Panhandles. These winds will overlap a hot/dry boundary layer during the afternoon, potentially yielding locally elevated fire-weather conditions. However, the fire-weather threat appears too localized for an Elevated area. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal/isolated tornado threat should continue through this afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia, and middle Tennessee. Isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...Southeast... The remnant surface circulation associated with Francine located over AR late this morning is forecast to continue filling/weakening through the day as a weak mid-level trough across the Mid-South moves slowly eastward. Surface observations/analysis indicate a front is draped northwest to southeast from western TN into northern/central AL and southern GA. This boundary may serve as a focus for additional convective development this afternoon, even though the overall system is weakening. Cloud cover remains prevalent across much of this region, which should hinder daytime heating to some extent. Poor mid-level lapse rates are also present, which will likely limit updraft intensities. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment expected, modest but sufficient low-level shear will persist through at least early afternoon. This may support occasional low-level updraft rotation, and the threat for a tornado or two. Otherwise, occasional damaging winds may also occur with any robust thunderstorm that can persist. This isolated/marginal severe threat should remain focused along/near the surface front, before waning this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal/isolated tornado threat should continue through this afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia, and middle Tennessee. Isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...Southeast... The remnant surface circulation associated with Francine located over AR late this morning is forecast to continue filling/weakening through the day as a weak mid-level trough across the Mid-South moves slowly eastward. Surface observations/analysis indicate a front is draped northwest to southeast from western TN into northern/central AL and southern GA. This boundary may serve as a focus for additional convective development this afternoon, even though the overall system is weakening. Cloud cover remains prevalent across much of this region, which should hinder daytime heating to some extent. Poor mid-level lapse rates are also present, which will likely limit updraft intensities. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment expected, modest but sufficient low-level shear will persist through at least early afternoon. This may support occasional low-level updraft rotation, and the threat for a tornado or two. Otherwise, occasional damaging winds may also occur with any robust thunderstorm that can persist. This isolated/marginal severe threat should remain focused along/near the surface front, before waning this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal/isolated tornado threat should continue through this afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia, and middle Tennessee. Isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...Southeast... The remnant surface circulation associated with Francine located over AR late this morning is forecast to continue filling/weakening through the day as a weak mid-level trough across the Mid-South moves slowly eastward. Surface observations/analysis indicate a front is draped northwest to southeast from western TN into northern/central AL and southern GA. This boundary may serve as a focus for additional convective development this afternoon, even though the overall system is weakening. Cloud cover remains prevalent across much of this region, which should hinder daytime heating to some extent. Poor mid-level lapse rates are also present, which will likely limit updraft intensities. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment expected, modest but sufficient low-level shear will persist through at least early afternoon. This may support occasional low-level updraft rotation, and the threat for a tornado or two. Otherwise, occasional damaging winds may also occur with any robust thunderstorm that can persist. This isolated/marginal severe threat should remain focused along/near the surface front, before waning this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal/isolated tornado threat should continue through this afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia, and middle Tennessee. Isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...Southeast... The remnant surface circulation associated with Francine located over AR late this morning is forecast to continue filling/weakening through the day as a weak mid-level trough across the Mid-South moves slowly eastward. Surface observations/analysis indicate a front is draped northwest to southeast from western TN into northern/central AL and southern GA. This boundary may serve as a focus for additional convective development this afternoon, even though the overall system is weakening. Cloud cover remains prevalent across much of this region, which should hinder daytime heating to some extent. Poor mid-level lapse rates are also present, which will likely limit updraft intensities. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment expected, modest but sufficient low-level shear will persist through at least early afternoon. This may support occasional low-level updraft rotation, and the threat for a tornado or two. Otherwise, occasional damaging winds may also occur with any robust thunderstorm that can persist. This isolated/marginal severe threat should remain focused along/near the surface front, before waning this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal/isolated tornado threat should continue through this afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia, and middle Tennessee. Isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...Southeast... The remnant surface circulation associated with Francine located over AR late this morning is forecast to continue filling/weakening through the day as a weak mid-level trough across the Mid-South moves slowly eastward. Surface observations/analysis indicate a front is draped northwest to southeast from western TN into northern/central AL and southern GA. This boundary may serve as a focus for additional convective development this afternoon, even though the overall system is weakening. Cloud cover remains prevalent across much of this region, which should hinder daytime heating to some extent. Poor mid-level lapse rates are also present, which will likely limit updraft intensities. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment expected, modest but sufficient low-level shear will persist through at least early afternoon. This may support occasional low-level updraft rotation, and the threat for a tornado or two. Otherwise, occasional damaging winds may also occur with any robust thunderstorm that can persist. This isolated/marginal severe threat should remain focused along/near the surface front, before waning this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal/isolated tornado threat should continue through this afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia, and middle Tennessee. Isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...Southeast... The remnant surface circulation associated with Francine located over AR late this morning is forecast to continue filling/weakening through the day as a weak mid-level trough across the Mid-South moves slowly eastward. Surface observations/analysis indicate a front is draped northwest to southeast from western TN into northern/central AL and southern GA. This boundary may serve as a focus for additional convective development this afternoon, even though the overall system is weakening. Cloud cover remains prevalent across much of this region, which should hinder daytime heating to some extent. Poor mid-level lapse rates are also present, which will likely limit updraft intensities. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment expected, modest but sufficient low-level shear will persist through at least early afternoon. This may support occasional low-level updraft rotation, and the threat for a tornado or two. Otherwise, occasional damaging winds may also occur with any robust thunderstorm that can persist. This isolated/marginal severe threat should remain focused along/near the surface front, before waning this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal/isolated tornado threat should continue through this afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia, and middle Tennessee. Isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...Southeast... The remnant surface circulation associated with Francine located over AR late this morning is forecast to continue filling/weakening through the day as a weak mid-level trough across the Mid-South moves slowly eastward. Surface observations/analysis indicate a front is draped northwest to southeast from western TN into northern/central AL and southern GA. This boundary may serve as a focus for additional convective development this afternoon, even though the overall system is weakening. Cloud cover remains prevalent across much of this region, which should hinder daytime heating to some extent. Poor mid-level lapse rates are also present, which will likely limit updraft intensities. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment expected, modest but sufficient low-level shear will persist through at least early afternoon. This may support occasional low-level updraft rotation, and the threat for a tornado or two. Otherwise, occasional damaging winds may also occur with any robust thunderstorm that can persist. This isolated/marginal severe threat should remain focused along/near the surface front, before waning this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 09/13/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Fri Sep 13 2024 Valid 131630Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... A marginal/isolated tornado threat should continue through this afternoon across parts of Alabama, western Georgia, and middle Tennessee. Isolated damaging winds may also occur. ...Southeast... The remnant surface circulation associated with Francine located over AR late this morning is forecast to continue filling/weakening through the day as a weak mid-level trough across the Mid-South moves slowly eastward. Surface observations/analysis indicate a front is draped northwest to southeast from western TN into northern/central AL and southern GA. This boundary may serve as a focus for additional convective development this afternoon, even though the overall system is weakening. Cloud cover remains prevalent across much of this region, which should hinder daytime heating to some extent. Poor mid-level lapse rates are also present, which will likely limit updraft intensities. Even with a marginal thermodynamic environment expected, modest but sufficient low-level shear will persist through at least early afternoon. This may support occasional low-level updraft rotation, and the threat for a tornado or two. Otherwise, occasional damaging winds may also occur with any robust thunderstorm that can persist. This isolated/marginal severe threat should remain focused along/near the surface front, before waning this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ..Gleason/Leitman.. 09/13/2024 Read more

The Interstate Commission on the Potomac River Basin began drought monitoring on September 11 as the river fell below 2,000 cubic feet per second at Point of Rocks, Maryland, which is upriver of Potomac intakes for the Washington Aqueduct, WSSC Water and Fairfax Water. WTOP News (Washington, D.C.), Sept 13, 2024

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 14:37:54 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 13 Sep 2024 15:28:58 GMT

Issued at 800 AM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 960 WTPZ44 KNHC 131435 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Ileana Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 800 AM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 Recent satellite imagery shows that Ileana is producing a large convective canopy with clouds top temperatures as cold as -80C. However, data from the Mexican radar at Cabo San Lucas shows that the convective banding under the canopy is poorly organized and suggests that the circulation center is still broad and elongated. The various satellite intensity estimates are little changed since the previous advisory, so the initial intensity remains 40 kt. The initial motion is 335/8 kt. This general motion should continue for the next 12 h or so, bringing the center across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula later today and into the southern Gulf of California by early Saturday. After that, a slower northward to north-northwestward motion is forecast until the cyclone dissipates over the weekend. There are no significant changes to either the track forecast guidance and the forecast track. Ileana currently appears too disorganized to take advantage of the current environment of light to moderate shear, good moisture, and warm water. Thus, little change in strength is expected before landfall in Baja California Sur. When the cyclone reaches the Gulf of California, it is forecast to move into increasing westerly shear and a drier airmass, which should cause weakening despite the very warm sea surface temperatures. Based on this scenario and the intensity guidance, the intensity forecast continues to show weakening, with the cyclone forecast to become a remnant low by 48 h and dissipate by 72 hr. Key Messages: 1. Tropical Storm Ileana will bring heavy rainfall to portions of western Mexico and southern Baja California through this weekend. This heavy rainfall will bring a risk of flash flooding and mudslides to portions of the area. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in portions of Baja California Sur during the next several hours where Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 22.3N 109.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 23.5N 109.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 24H 14/1200Z 24.8N 109.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 36H 15/0000Z 25.8N 110.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 26.7N 110.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 16/0000Z 27.6N 111.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 131435 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CABO SAN LUCAS 34 14 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) SAN JOSE CABO 34 23 3(26) X(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) LA PAZ 34 4 6(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) LORETO 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GUAYMAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HUATABAMPO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) LOS MOCHIS 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 674 WTPZ24 KNHC 131434 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 1500 UTC FRI SEP 13 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 109.3W AT 13/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.3N 109.3W AT 13/1500Z AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.9N 109.1W FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 23.5N 109.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 24.8N 109.9W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 25.8N 110.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 26.7N 110.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 27.6N 111.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.3N 109.3W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 13/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 800 AM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 673 WTPZ34 KNHC 131434 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Advisory Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 800 AM MST Fri Sep 13 2024 ...CENTER OF ILEANA APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... SUMMARY OF 800 AM MST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.3N 109.3W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * West coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from Santa Fe southward * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico from San Evaristo southward A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * East coast of Baja California Sur Mexico north of San Evaristo to Loreto * Mainland Mexico from Topolobampo to Huatabampito A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 to 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM MST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 22.3 North, longitude 109.3 West. Ileana is moving toward the north-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A slower north-northwestward to northward motion is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Ileana is expected to move across the southern portion of the Baja California peninsula today and over the southern and central Gulf of California this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before Ileana reaches the Baja California peninsula. Weakening is expected over the weekend, and Ileana is forecast to dissipate by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Through this weekend, Tropical Storm Ileana may produce rainfall of 4 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 8 inches, across southern Baja California. For northwest coastal Sinaloa, Tropical Storm Ileana may result between 6 to 8 inches with localized higher amounts up to 12 inches. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula within the warning area during the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by early Saturday. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and the coast of the southern Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1100 AM MST. Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...CENTER OF ILEANA APPROACHING BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS... As of 8:00 AM MST Fri Sep 13 the center of Ileana was located near 22.3, -109.3 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.