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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts and small to marginally severe hail will be possible on Monday afternoon to early evening across parts of the eastern Great Basin to Four Corners. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough currently in place across the northeastern Pacific is forecast to amplify over the next 24-72 hours as it migrates southward along the West Coast and eventually into the Great Basin. As this occurs, an attendant mid-level jet streak will pivot into the interior West. The combination of increasing ascent and strengthening mid/upper-level winds will support isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin and Four Corners. To the east across the Plains, surface pressure falls will become increasingly concentrated across the central to northern High Plains, which will maintain a moisture return regime. Weak ascent over a broadening warm sector will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm chances. ...Great Basin/Four Corners... Forecast guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in strengthening wind fields across NV into UT and AZ by peak heating Monday as the mid/upper jet noses into the region. Mid-level lapse rates will steepen through the day ahead of the approaching wave, which, despite very modest moisture content, should support adequate buoyancy for convection. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers will facilitate efficient downward mixing of strong mid-level flow, which will likely be augmented by evaporatively-cooled downdraft accelerations. Consequently, the probability for strong to severe wind gusts appears higher and somewhat more concentrated compared to preceding days. Portions of the Four Corners region may also see a large hail threat given elongated wind profiles and slightly better buoyancy due to an influx of low/mid-level moisture from the Gulf of California. ...Central to northern Plains... Northward moisture return is expected to persist through Monday evening as a lee cyclone becomes more consolidated across the central to northern High Plains. With the primary upper-level trough displaced well to the west, synoptic-scale ascent will remain weak across the Great Plains region. However, signals for thunderstorm development within a modest warm-advection regime across ND and along the lee trough over parts of central/western KS into far northwest OK are noted in recent solutions. Predictability in either scenario is too limited to warrant risk probabilities, but the convective parameter space across both ND and KS/OK appears conducive for a conditional severe threat. ...Coastal North Carolina... A low off the Carolina coast is forecast to gradually intensify/organize over the next 72 hours, though forecast uncertainty regarding its exact evolution remains very high (see the latest NHC forecast discussion for additional details). However, a few solutions, notably recent GFS and NAM runs, suggest the low will migrate inland across the Carolinas during the day Monday. As this occurs, a narrow swath of high theta-e air will span from the NC coast into eastern NC and perhaps southeast VA. Wind profiles within this swath may feature strong low-level helicity that could support some tornado threat given sufficient buoyancy for deep convection. Confidence in this scenario remains very limited, but forecast trends will be monitored. ..Moore.. 09/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts and small to marginally severe hail will be possible on Monday afternoon to early evening across parts of the eastern Great Basin to Four Corners. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough currently in place across the northeastern Pacific is forecast to amplify over the next 24-72 hours as it migrates southward along the West Coast and eventually into the Great Basin. As this occurs, an attendant mid-level jet streak will pivot into the interior West. The combination of increasing ascent and strengthening mid/upper-level winds will support isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin and Four Corners. To the east across the Plains, surface pressure falls will become increasingly concentrated across the central to northern High Plains, which will maintain a moisture return regime. Weak ascent over a broadening warm sector will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm chances. ...Great Basin/Four Corners... Forecast guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in strengthening wind fields across NV into UT and AZ by peak heating Monday as the mid/upper jet noses into the region. Mid-level lapse rates will steepen through the day ahead of the approaching wave, which, despite very modest moisture content, should support adequate buoyancy for convection. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers will facilitate efficient downward mixing of strong mid-level flow, which will likely be augmented by evaporatively-cooled downdraft accelerations. Consequently, the probability for strong to severe wind gusts appears higher and somewhat more concentrated compared to preceding days. Portions of the Four Corners region may also see a large hail threat given elongated wind profiles and slightly better buoyancy due to an influx of low/mid-level moisture from the Gulf of California. ...Central to northern Plains... Northward moisture return is expected to persist through Monday evening as a lee cyclone becomes more consolidated across the central to northern High Plains. With the primary upper-level trough displaced well to the west, synoptic-scale ascent will remain weak across the Great Plains region. However, signals for thunderstorm development within a modest warm-advection regime across ND and along the lee trough over parts of central/western KS into far northwest OK are noted in recent solutions. Predictability in either scenario is too limited to warrant risk probabilities, but the convective parameter space across both ND and KS/OK appears conducive for a conditional severe threat. ...Coastal North Carolina... A low off the Carolina coast is forecast to gradually intensify/organize over the next 72 hours, though forecast uncertainty regarding its exact evolution remains very high (see the latest NHC forecast discussion for additional details). However, a few solutions, notably recent GFS and NAM runs, suggest the low will migrate inland across the Carolinas during the day Monday. As this occurs, a narrow swath of high theta-e air will span from the NC coast into eastern NC and perhaps southeast VA. Wind profiles within this swath may feature strong low-level helicity that could support some tornado threat given sufficient buoyancy for deep convection. Confidence in this scenario remains very limited, but forecast trends will be monitored. ..Moore.. 09/14/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0217 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe gusts and small to marginally severe hail will be possible on Monday afternoon to early evening across parts of the eastern Great Basin to Four Corners. ...Synopsis... The upper-level trough currently in place across the northeastern Pacific is forecast to amplify over the next 24-72 hours as it migrates southward along the West Coast and eventually into the Great Basin. As this occurs, an attendant mid-level jet streak will pivot into the interior West. The combination of increasing ascent and strengthening mid/upper-level winds will support isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms across parts of the Great Basin and Four Corners. To the east across the Plains, surface pressure falls will become increasingly concentrated across the central to northern High Plains, which will maintain a moisture return regime. Weak ascent over a broadening warm sector will support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm chances. ...Great Basin/Four Corners... Forecast guidance continues to show reasonably good agreement in strengthening wind fields across NV into UT and AZ by peak heating Monday as the mid/upper jet noses into the region. Mid-level lapse rates will steepen through the day ahead of the approaching wave, which, despite very modest moisture content, should support adequate buoyancy for convection. Deep, well-mixed boundary layers will facilitate efficient downward mixing of strong mid-level flow, which will likely be augmented by evaporatively-cooled downdraft accelerations. Consequently, the probability for strong to severe wind gusts appears higher and somewhat more concentrated compared to preceding days. Portions of the Four Corners region may also see a large hail threat given elongated wind profiles and slightly better buoyancy due to an influx of low/mid-level moisture from the Gulf of California. ...Central to northern Plains... Northward moisture return is expected to persist through Monday evening as a lee cyclone becomes more consolidated across the central to northern High Plains. With the primary upper-level trough displaced well to the west, synoptic-scale ascent will remain weak across the Great Plains region. However, signals for thunderstorm development within a modest warm-advection regime across ND and along the lee trough over parts of central/western KS into far northwest OK are noted in recent solutions. Predictability in either scenario is too limited to warrant risk probabilities, but the convective parameter space across both ND and KS/OK appears conducive for a conditional severe threat. ...Coastal North Carolina... A low off the Carolina coast is forecast to gradually intensify/organize over the next 72 hours, though forecast uncertainty regarding its exact evolution remains very high (see the latest NHC forecast discussion for additional details). However, a few solutions, notably recent GFS and NAM runs, suggest the low will migrate inland across the Carolinas during the day Monday. As this occurs, a narrow swath of high theta-e air will span from the NC coast into eastern NC and perhaps southeast VA. Wind profiles within this swath may feature strong low-level helicity that could support some tornado threat given sufficient buoyancy for deep convection. Confidence in this scenario remains very limited, but forecast trends will be monitored. ..Moore.. 09/14/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast remains generally on track. The main change to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook update was to add Elevated highlights to portions of the southern High Plains. Across portions of the northwestern Texas Panhandle and adjacent areas to the north, initially dry southerly surface flow (driven by lee troughing) will promote 15 mph sustained winds amid 15-20 percent RH on Sunday afternoon. Fuels in this region are modestly dry, warranting the addition of fire weather highlights. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is possible across portions of northeastern Nevada into Idaho during the afternoon as well. However, the marginal receptiveness of fuels, along with the wet/dry thunderstorm mix, suggests that isolated dry thunderstorm highlights are not currently needed. ..Squitieri.. 09/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West Coast, enhanced deep-layer meridional flow will overspread a diurnally deepening boundary layer (15-20 percent RH) over portions of the southern Great Basin. This, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of an evolving surface cyclone, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds. These winds will overlap the lowest RH over portions of southern NV, and given modestly receptive fuels here, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast remains generally on track. The main change to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook update was to add Elevated highlights to portions of the southern High Plains. Across portions of the northwestern Texas Panhandle and adjacent areas to the north, initially dry southerly surface flow (driven by lee troughing) will promote 15 mph sustained winds amid 15-20 percent RH on Sunday afternoon. Fuels in this region are modestly dry, warranting the addition of fire weather highlights. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is possible across portions of northeastern Nevada into Idaho during the afternoon as well. However, the marginal receptiveness of fuels, along with the wet/dry thunderstorm mix, suggests that isolated dry thunderstorm highlights are not currently needed. ..Squitieri.. 09/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West Coast, enhanced deep-layer meridional flow will overspread a diurnally deepening boundary layer (15-20 percent RH) over portions of the southern Great Basin. This, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of an evolving surface cyclone, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds. These winds will overlap the lowest RH over portions of southern NV, and given modestly receptive fuels here, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast remains generally on track. The main change to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook update was to add Elevated highlights to portions of the southern High Plains. Across portions of the northwestern Texas Panhandle and adjacent areas to the north, initially dry southerly surface flow (driven by lee troughing) will promote 15 mph sustained winds amid 15-20 percent RH on Sunday afternoon. Fuels in this region are modestly dry, warranting the addition of fire weather highlights. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is possible across portions of northeastern Nevada into Idaho during the afternoon as well. However, the marginal receptiveness of fuels, along with the wet/dry thunderstorm mix, suggests that isolated dry thunderstorm highlights are not currently needed. ..Squitieri.. 09/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West Coast, enhanced deep-layer meridional flow will overspread a diurnally deepening boundary layer (15-20 percent RH) over portions of the southern Great Basin. This, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of an evolving surface cyclone, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds. These winds will overlap the lowest RH over portions of southern NV, and given modestly receptive fuels here, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast remains generally on track. The main change to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook update was to add Elevated highlights to portions of the southern High Plains. Across portions of the northwestern Texas Panhandle and adjacent areas to the north, initially dry southerly surface flow (driven by lee troughing) will promote 15 mph sustained winds amid 15-20 percent RH on Sunday afternoon. Fuels in this region are modestly dry, warranting the addition of fire weather highlights. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is possible across portions of northeastern Nevada into Idaho during the afternoon as well. However, the marginal receptiveness of fuels, along with the wet/dry thunderstorm mix, suggests that isolated dry thunderstorm highlights are not currently needed. ..Squitieri.. 09/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West Coast, enhanced deep-layer meridional flow will overspread a diurnally deepening boundary layer (15-20 percent RH) over portions of the southern Great Basin. This, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of an evolving surface cyclone, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds. These winds will overlap the lowest RH over portions of southern NV, and given modestly receptive fuels here, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast remains generally on track. The main change to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook update was to add Elevated highlights to portions of the southern High Plains. Across portions of the northwestern Texas Panhandle and adjacent areas to the north, initially dry southerly surface flow (driven by lee troughing) will promote 15 mph sustained winds amid 15-20 percent RH on Sunday afternoon. Fuels in this region are modestly dry, warranting the addition of fire weather highlights. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is possible across portions of northeastern Nevada into Idaho during the afternoon as well. However, the marginal receptiveness of fuels, along with the wet/dry thunderstorm mix, suggests that isolated dry thunderstorm highlights are not currently needed. ..Squitieri.. 09/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West Coast, enhanced deep-layer meridional flow will overspread a diurnally deepening boundary layer (15-20 percent RH) over portions of the southern Great Basin. This, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of an evolving surface cyclone, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds. These winds will overlap the lowest RH over portions of southern NV, and given modestly receptive fuels here, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z The previous forecast remains generally on track. The main change to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook update was to add Elevated highlights to portions of the southern High Plains. Across portions of the northwestern Texas Panhandle and adjacent areas to the north, initially dry southerly surface flow (driven by lee troughing) will promote 15 mph sustained winds amid 15-20 percent RH on Sunday afternoon. Fuels in this region are modestly dry, warranting the addition of fire weather highlights. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms is possible across portions of northeastern Nevada into Idaho during the afternoon as well. However, the marginal receptiveness of fuels, along with the wet/dry thunderstorm mix, suggests that isolated dry thunderstorm highlights are not currently needed. ..Squitieri.. 09/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... Ahead of an amplifying large-scale trough over the West Coast, enhanced deep-layer meridional flow will overspread a diurnally deepening boundary layer (15-20 percent RH) over portions of the southern Great Basin. This, coupled with a tightening pressure gradient along the southern periphery of an evolving surface cyclone, will yield 20-25 mph sustained southerly surface winds. These winds will overlap the lowest RH over portions of southern NV, and given modestly receptive fuels here, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141739
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 14 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ileana, located over the southern Gulf of California.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Beven/Mahoney

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2024 17:35:15 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2024 15:28:40 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM MST Sat Sep 14 2024 606 WTPZ34 KNHC 141734 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 9A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 1100 AM MST Sat Sep 14 2024 ...CENTER OF ILEANA NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ONSHORE... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM MST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.2N 108.9W ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SSE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Altata to Huatabampito Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM MST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 25.2 North, longitude 108.9 West. Ileana is moving toward the north near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue today. A slower motion toward the north-northwest and northwest is expected tonight and on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Ileana will move near or over the coasts of northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora during the next several hours, and then move over the Gulf of California roughly parallel to the coast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast to begin later this afternoon or evening, and Ileana is likely to degenerate into a remnant low tonight. The remnant low is expected to dissipate by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The Mexican Navy station at Topolobampo recently reported sustained winds of 31 mph (50 km/h) and a wind gust of 40 mph (65 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ileana is expected to bring additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 10 inches, across northwest coastal Sinaloa through this weekend. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the warning area in northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora through this afternoon. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the Gulf of California coasts of Sinaloa, southern Sonora, and southern Baja California Sur during the next day or so. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...CENTER OF ILEANA NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ONSHORE... As of 11:00 AM MST Sat Sep 14 the center of Ileana was located near 25.2, -108.9 with movement N at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 09/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel jet streak will cross the northern Rockies today, encouraging lee troughing along the northern/central High Plains. Over portions of WY, 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds and 10-15 percent RH will develop in response to the lee troughing and deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft. Given modestly receptive fuels across the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon. Farther west, breezy southerly surface winds are expected amid 15-20 percent RH across portions of the southern Great Basin -- within the base of a gradually amplifying large-scale trough. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, a lack of stronger sustained surface winds should limit the overall fire-weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 09/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel jet streak will cross the northern Rockies today, encouraging lee troughing along the northern/central High Plains. Over portions of WY, 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds and 10-15 percent RH will develop in response to the lee troughing and deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft. Given modestly receptive fuels across the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon. Farther west, breezy southerly surface winds are expected amid 15-20 percent RH across portions of the southern Great Basin -- within the base of a gradually amplifying large-scale trough. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, a lack of stronger sustained surface winds should limit the overall fire-weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 09/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel jet streak will cross the northern Rockies today, encouraging lee troughing along the northern/central High Plains. Over portions of WY, 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds and 10-15 percent RH will develop in response to the lee troughing and deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft. Given modestly receptive fuels across the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon. Farther west, breezy southerly surface winds are expected amid 15-20 percent RH across portions of the southern Great Basin -- within the base of a gradually amplifying large-scale trough. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, a lack of stronger sustained surface winds should limit the overall fire-weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 09/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel jet streak will cross the northern Rockies today, encouraging lee troughing along the northern/central High Plains. Over portions of WY, 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds and 10-15 percent RH will develop in response to the lee troughing and deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft. Given modestly receptive fuels across the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon. Farther west, breezy southerly surface winds are expected amid 15-20 percent RH across portions of the southern Great Basin -- within the base of a gradually amplifying large-scale trough. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, a lack of stronger sustained surface winds should limit the overall fire-weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 09/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel jet streak will cross the northern Rockies today, encouraging lee troughing along the northern/central High Plains. Over portions of WY, 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds and 10-15 percent RH will develop in response to the lee troughing and deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft. Given modestly receptive fuels across the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon. Farther west, breezy southerly surface winds are expected amid 15-20 percent RH across portions of the southern Great Basin -- within the base of a gradually amplifying large-scale trough. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, a lack of stronger sustained surface winds should limit the overall fire-weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 09/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel jet streak will cross the northern Rockies today, encouraging lee troughing along the northern/central High Plains. Over portions of WY, 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds and 10-15 percent RH will develop in response to the lee troughing and deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft. Given modestly receptive fuels across the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon. Farther west, breezy southerly surface winds are expected amid 15-20 percent RH across portions of the southern Great Basin -- within the base of a gradually amplifying large-scale trough. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, a lack of stronger sustained surface winds should limit the overall fire-weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 141700Z - 151200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with no changes or additions made. ..Squitieri.. 09/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0144 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel jet streak will cross the northern Rockies today, encouraging lee troughing along the northern/central High Plains. Over portions of WY, 15-20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds and 10-15 percent RH will develop in response to the lee troughing and deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft. Given modestly receptive fuels across the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon. Farther west, breezy southerly surface winds are expected amid 15-20 percent RH across portions of the southern Great Basin -- within the base of a gradually amplifying large-scale trough. While locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, a lack of stronger sustained surface winds should limit the overall fire-weather risk. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more