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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z Fire-weather concerns over the CONUS are low through the extended forecast period. Predominately zonal mid-level flow will gradually amplify as broad troughing develops over the eastern US early in the week. Ridging and strong northwesterly flow will intensify over the western US as the upper-level pattern becomes quasi stationary. At the surface, a cold front and high pressure will shift over the central and eastern US as the ridge builds. A much cooler and stable air mass, reinforced by multiple intrusions of Arctic air, will favor weaker winds and poor overlap of dry conditions with receptive across much of the US into week 2. The only exceptions may be across parts of the southern High Plains and the FL Peninsula middle to late next week. Gusty winds behind a strong cold front could support periodic dry and breezy conditions from eastern NM and across central FL. However, fuels in both locations are not overly receptive, and model guidance varies substantially on the duration/intensity of any strong winds and low humidity that may develop. Thus, the probability of sustained critical fire-weather conditions is low. ..Lyons.. 11/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z Fire-weather concerns over the CONUS are low through the extended forecast period. Predominately zonal mid-level flow will gradually amplify as broad troughing develops over the eastern US early in the week. Ridging and strong northwesterly flow will intensify over the western US as the upper-level pattern becomes quasi stationary. At the surface, a cold front and high pressure will shift over the central and eastern US as the ridge builds. A much cooler and stable air mass, reinforced by multiple intrusions of Arctic air, will favor weaker winds and poor overlap of dry conditions with receptive across much of the US into week 2. The only exceptions may be across parts of the southern High Plains and the FL Peninsula middle to late next week. Gusty winds behind a strong cold front could support periodic dry and breezy conditions from eastern NM and across central FL. However, fuels in both locations are not overly receptive, and model guidance varies substantially on the duration/intensity of any strong winds and low humidity that may develop. Thus, the probability of sustained critical fire-weather conditions is low. ..Lyons.. 11/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0352 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 021200Z Fire-weather concerns over the CONUS are low through the extended forecast period. Predominately zonal mid-level flow will gradually amplify as broad troughing develops over the eastern US early in the week. Ridging and strong northwesterly flow will intensify over the western US as the upper-level pattern becomes quasi stationary. At the surface, a cold front and high pressure will shift over the central and eastern US as the ridge builds. A much cooler and stable air mass, reinforced by multiple intrusions of Arctic air, will favor weaker winds and poor overlap of dry conditions with receptive across much of the US into week 2. The only exceptions may be across parts of the southern High Plains and the FL Peninsula middle to late next week. Gusty winds behind a strong cold front could support periodic dry and breezy conditions from eastern NM and across central FL. However, fuels in both locations are not overly receptive, and model guidance varies substantially on the duration/intensity of any strong winds and low humidity that may develop. Thus, the probability of sustained critical fire-weather conditions is low. ..Lyons.. 11/24/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 11/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024/ ...Pacific Northwest... Recent water vapor imagery shows persistent onshore flow regime along the Pacific Northwest coast, with several small vorticity maxima embedded in the flow. Several pockets of lightning have been noted with this offshore activity, but the trend has been for rapid dissipation of lightning as activity moved ashore. This trend should continue through the day, with the risk of thunderstorms primarily focused along the coast of southwest OR and northwest CA. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 11/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024/ ...Pacific Northwest... Recent water vapor imagery shows persistent onshore flow regime along the Pacific Northwest coast, with several small vorticity maxima embedded in the flow. Several pockets of lightning have been noted with this offshore activity, but the trend has been for rapid dissipation of lightning as activity moved ashore. This trend should continue through the day, with the risk of thunderstorms primarily focused along the coast of southwest OR and northwest CA. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 11/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024/ ...Pacific Northwest... Recent water vapor imagery shows persistent onshore flow regime along the Pacific Northwest coast, with several small vorticity maxima embedded in the flow. Several pockets of lightning have been noted with this offshore activity, but the trend has been for rapid dissipation of lightning as activity moved ashore. This trend should continue through the day, with the risk of thunderstorms primarily focused along the coast of southwest OR and northwest CA. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 11/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024/ ...Pacific Northwest... Recent water vapor imagery shows persistent onshore flow regime along the Pacific Northwest coast, with several small vorticity maxima embedded in the flow. Several pockets of lightning have been noted with this offshore activity, but the trend has been for rapid dissipation of lightning as activity moved ashore. This trend should continue through the day, with the risk of thunderstorms primarily focused along the coast of southwest OR and northwest CA. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are unlikely through tonight. ...20z Update... No changes are needed to the current D1 Convective Outlook. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton.. 11/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1004 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024/ ...Pacific Northwest... Recent water vapor imagery shows persistent onshore flow regime along the Pacific Northwest coast, with several small vorticity maxima embedded in the flow. Several pockets of lightning have been noted with this offshore activity, but the trend has been for rapid dissipation of lightning as activity moved ashore. This trend should continue through the day, with the risk of thunderstorms primarily focused along the coast of southwest OR and northwest CA. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly across the Northeast on Tuesday. In conjunction with this shortwave, a surface low will move from the lower Great Lakes into Quebec, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of New England, the Mid Atlantic, and Southeast. Modest diurnal destabilization will be possible near the weakening front across parts of the Southeast, but with generally limited large-scale ascent across this region, thunderstorm potential appears low at this time. Farther north, weak convection will be possible in association with the front across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, but very weak instability is expected to limit thunderstorm potential. Across the West, a positively tilted mid/upper-level trough is expected to move across the Great Basin toward the central Rockies. Cold temperatures aloft associated with the trough could support weak convection with very isolated/sporadic lightning flashes from OR/northern CA into the Great Basin and central/northern Rockies. Confidence in sufficient coverage is too low to include a general-thunderstorm area at this time. ..Dean.. 11/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly across the Northeast on Tuesday. In conjunction with this shortwave, a surface low will move from the lower Great Lakes into Quebec, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of New England, the Mid Atlantic, and Southeast. Modest diurnal destabilization will be possible near the weakening front across parts of the Southeast, but with generally limited large-scale ascent across this region, thunderstorm potential appears low at this time. Farther north, weak convection will be possible in association with the front across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, but very weak instability is expected to limit thunderstorm potential. Across the West, a positively tilted mid/upper-level trough is expected to move across the Great Basin toward the central Rockies. Cold temperatures aloft associated with the trough could support weak convection with very isolated/sporadic lightning flashes from OR/northern CA into the Great Basin and central/northern Rockies. Confidence in sufficient coverage is too low to include a general-thunderstorm area at this time. ..Dean.. 11/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly across the Northeast on Tuesday. In conjunction with this shortwave, a surface low will move from the lower Great Lakes into Quebec, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of New England, the Mid Atlantic, and Southeast. Modest diurnal destabilization will be possible near the weakening front across parts of the Southeast, but with generally limited large-scale ascent across this region, thunderstorm potential appears low at this time. Farther north, weak convection will be possible in association with the front across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, but very weak instability is expected to limit thunderstorm potential. Across the West, a positively tilted mid/upper-level trough is expected to move across the Great Basin toward the central Rockies. Cold temperatures aloft associated with the trough could support weak convection with very isolated/sporadic lightning flashes from OR/northern CA into the Great Basin and central/northern Rockies. Confidence in sufficient coverage is too low to include a general-thunderstorm area at this time. ..Dean.. 11/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly across the Northeast on Tuesday. In conjunction with this shortwave, a surface low will move from the lower Great Lakes into Quebec, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of New England, the Mid Atlantic, and Southeast. Modest diurnal destabilization will be possible near the weakening front across parts of the Southeast, but with generally limited large-scale ascent across this region, thunderstorm potential appears low at this time. Farther north, weak convection will be possible in association with the front across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, but very weak instability is expected to limit thunderstorm potential. Across the West, a positively tilted mid/upper-level trough is expected to move across the Great Basin toward the central Rockies. Cold temperatures aloft associated with the trough could support weak convection with very isolated/sporadic lightning flashes from OR/northern CA into the Great Basin and central/northern Rockies. Confidence in sufficient coverage is too low to include a general-thunderstorm area at this time. ..Dean.. 11/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm potential appears low on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly across the Northeast on Tuesday. In conjunction with this shortwave, a surface low will move from the lower Great Lakes into Quebec, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of New England, the Mid Atlantic, and Southeast. Modest diurnal destabilization will be possible near the weakening front across parts of the Southeast, but with generally limited large-scale ascent across this region, thunderstorm potential appears low at this time. Farther north, weak convection will be possible in association with the front across parts of the Mid Atlantic and Northeast, but very weak instability is expected to limit thunderstorm potential. Across the West, a positively tilted mid/upper-level trough is expected to move across the Great Basin toward the central Rockies. Cold temperatures aloft associated with the trough could support weak convection with very isolated/sporadic lightning flashes from OR/northern CA into the Great Basin and central/northern Rockies. Confidence in sufficient coverage is too low to include a general-thunderstorm area at this time. ..Dean.. 11/24/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...1915z Update... No changes were made. Fire-weather potential is low. See prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 11/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will take on a negative tilt across the Great Lakes on Monday, helping to deepen a surface low across the eastern Great Lakes. Showers will develop along the attendant surface cold front as it progress east across the lower Mississippi Valley and much of the Ohio Valley before approaching the East Coast early Tuesday. To the west, zonal to broadly anticyclonic mid-level flow will develop across the central United States ahead of another mid-level trough. This will support/maintain a surface ridge across the Plains, allowing winds to relax and promoting limited fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...1915z Update... No changes were made. Fire-weather potential is low. See prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 11/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will take on a negative tilt across the Great Lakes on Monday, helping to deepen a surface low across the eastern Great Lakes. Showers will develop along the attendant surface cold front as it progress east across the lower Mississippi Valley and much of the Ohio Valley before approaching the East Coast early Tuesday. To the west, zonal to broadly anticyclonic mid-level flow will develop across the central United States ahead of another mid-level trough. This will support/maintain a surface ridge across the Plains, allowing winds to relax and promoting limited fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...1915z Update... No changes were made. Fire-weather potential is low. See prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 11/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will take on a negative tilt across the Great Lakes on Monday, helping to deepen a surface low across the eastern Great Lakes. Showers will develop along the attendant surface cold front as it progress east across the lower Mississippi Valley and much of the Ohio Valley before approaching the East Coast early Tuesday. To the west, zonal to broadly anticyclonic mid-level flow will develop across the central United States ahead of another mid-level trough. This will support/maintain a surface ridge across the Plains, allowing winds to relax and promoting limited fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...1915z Update... No changes were made. Fire-weather potential is low. See prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 11/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will take on a negative tilt across the Great Lakes on Monday, helping to deepen a surface low across the eastern Great Lakes. Showers will develop along the attendant surface cold front as it progress east across the lower Mississippi Valley and much of the Ohio Valley before approaching the East Coast early Tuesday. To the west, zonal to broadly anticyclonic mid-level flow will develop across the central United States ahead of another mid-level trough. This will support/maintain a surface ridge across the Plains, allowing winds to relax and promoting limited fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...1915z Update... No changes were made. Fire-weather potential is low. See prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 11/24/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0132 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will take on a negative tilt across the Great Lakes on Monday, helping to deepen a surface low across the eastern Great Lakes. Showers will develop along the attendant surface cold front as it progress east across the lower Mississippi Valley and much of the Ohio Valley before approaching the East Coast early Tuesday. To the west, zonal to broadly anticyclonic mid-level flow will develop across the central United States ahead of another mid-level trough. This will support/maintain a surface ridge across the Plains, allowing winds to relax and promoting limited fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday into Monday night from Louisiana into parts of the Mid-South, and also near the Oregon and northern California coasts. ...Synopsis... A strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to take on a negative tilt on Monday, as it moves quickly eastward across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. An associated surface low is forecast to move from IL toward lower MI through the day and evening, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and the mid/lower Mississippi Valley. Isolated thunderstorms may develop later Monday near the front from parts of LA into the Mid-South. Farther west, a mid/upper-level trough and embedded midlevel low are forecast are forecast to move eastward across parts of the Pacific Northwest, northern CA, and the Great Basin. Weak convection with isolated lightning flashes will be possible near the OR and northern CA coasts, in association with this trough. ...Parts of LA into the TN/OH Valleys... Low-level moisture return along/ahead of the cold front will result in 60s F dewpoints reaching as far north as the Mid-South by Monday afternoon, with 50s F dewpoints extending into parts of the Ohio Valley. Stronger large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough will be displaced to the north of the richer low-level moisture, and buoyancy is expected to generally remain weak. As a result, organized deep convection is currently not anticipated, despite the presence of favorable deep-layer shear. Generally weak convection with isolated thunderstorm potential will be possible (primarily later in the forecast period) in the vicinity of the front from parts of LA into the Mid-South. Weak low-topped convection (with localized gusty winds) will be possible into the Ohio Valley, but increasingly negligible buoyancy is expected to limit thunderstorm potential with northward extent. ..Dean.. 11/24/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1112 AM CST Sun Nov 24 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible Monday into Monday night from Louisiana into parts of the Mid-South, and also near the Oregon and northern California coasts. ...Synopsis... A strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to take on a negative tilt on Monday, as it moves quickly eastward across parts of the Midwest and Ohio Valley. An associated surface low is forecast to move from IL toward lower MI through the day and evening, as a trailing cold front moves through parts of the Great Lakes, Ohio/Tennessee Valleys, and the mid/lower Mississippi Valley. Isolated thunderstorms may develop later Monday near the front from parts of LA into the Mid-South. Farther west, a mid/upper-level trough and embedded midlevel low are forecast are forecast to move eastward across parts of the Pacific Northwest, northern CA, and the Great Basin. Weak convection with isolated lightning flashes will be possible near the OR and northern CA coasts, in association with this trough. ...Parts of LA into the TN/OH Valleys... Low-level moisture return along/ahead of the cold front will result in 60s F dewpoints reaching as far north as the Mid-South by Monday afternoon, with 50s F dewpoints extending into parts of the Ohio Valley. Stronger large-scale ascent associated with the shortwave trough will be displaced to the north of the richer low-level moisture, and buoyancy is expected to generally remain weak. As a result, organized deep convection is currently not anticipated, despite the presence of favorable deep-layer shear. Generally weak convection with isolated thunderstorm potential will be possible (primarily later in the forecast period) in the vicinity of the front from parts of LA into the Mid-South. Weak low-topped convection (with localized gusty winds) will be possible into the Ohio Valley, but increasingly negligible buoyancy is expected to limit thunderstorm potential with northward extent. ..Dean.. 11/24/2024 Read more