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No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Sep 14 23:59:01 UTC 2024.

No watches are valid as of Sat Sep 14 23:59:01 UTC 2024.

Issued at 500 PM MST Sat Sep 14 2024 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 142346 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ileana Intermediate Advisory Number 10A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092024 500 PM MST Sat Sep 14 2024 ...ILEANA DRIFTING NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE SPREADING INLAND OVER SINALOA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM MST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.4N 109.0W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSE OF LOS MOCHIS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...S OR 180 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...3 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Altata to Huatabampito Mexico A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within 12 hours. Interests elsewhere in the Mexican states of Sinaloa and Sonora should closely monitor the progress of Ileana. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM MST (0000 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ileana was located near latitude 25.4 North, longitude 109.0 West. Ileana is drifting toward the south near 2 mph (3 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected later tonight or on Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Ileana will move near, over the coastal region of northern Sinaloa during the next several hours, and then move over the Gulf of California roughly parallel to the coast on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast to begin this evening, and Ileana is likely to degenerate into a remnant low tonight or on Sunday. The remnant low is expected to dissipate by Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center. The Mexican Navy station at Topolobampo recently reported sustained winds of 44 mph (71 km/h) and a wind gust of 55 mph (89 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Ileana can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: Tropical Storm Ileana is expected to bring additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with localized higher amounts up to 10 inches, across northwest coastal Sinaloa through this weekend. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Ileana, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?rainqpf WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of the warning area in northern Sinaloa and southern Sonora into this evening. SURF: Swells generated by Ileana will affect portions of the Gulf of California coasts of Sinaloa, southern Sonora, and southern Baja California Sur during the next day or so. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM MST. $$ Forecaster Bucci

...ILEANA DRIFTING NEAR THE COAST OF NORTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE SPREADING INLAND OVER SINALOA... As of 5:00 PM MST Sat Sep 14 the center of Ileana was located near 25.4, -109.0 with movement S at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2024 23:46:56 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2024 21:28:42 GMT

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 142341
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ileana, located near the coast of northwest Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 142320
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Sep 14 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ileana, located inland near the coast of northwest Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2024 20:34:52 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 14 Sep 2024 21:28:42 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 919 FOPZ14 KNHC 142032 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092024 2100 UTC SAT SEP 14 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ILEANA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HUATABAMPO 34 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LOS MOCHIS 34 11 1(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

...CENTER OF ILEANA MAKES LANDFALL ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO SOUTHEAST OF TOPOLOBAMPO... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND HEAVY RAINS SPREADING ONSHORE... As of 2:00 PM MST Sat Sep 14 the center of Ileana was located near 25.5, -108.9 with movement N at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible over parts of the north-central Plains this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to trim the northern Plains Marginal behind ongoing convection, otherwise the Day 1 Convective Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 09/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024/ ...Northern/Central Plains... Modest ascent associated with a weak shortwave trough over eastern WY is encouraging towering cu and recent thunderstorm initiation across parts of western/central NE late this morning. This convective development is also occurring along/near a weak surface trough. Even though large-scale ascent is expected to remain fairly modest across much of the northern/central Plains today in the wake of a more prominent upper trough moving northeastward over central Canada, most guidance still shows potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon across parts of northwest NE into western/central SD along/near the surface trough. With modest/shallow low-level moisture in place, but steep mid-level lapse rates per 12Z LBF/UNR soundings, robust daytime heating will likely support around 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon. West-southwesterly flow at mid levels is forecast to be only modestly enhanced by the passing shortwave trough. Still, a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile with height through mid levels should support around 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear. Occasional hail may occur with any marginal supercells that can initially develop, although tendency for clustering and outflow interactions may lead to an isolated severe wind threat with time late this afternoon and early evening. The overall severe risk should quickly wane this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Southern High Plains... At least isolated high-based thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the TX Panhandle and vicinity along/east of a weak surface front/trough. With a deeply mixed boundary layer expected with daytime heating, occasional strong/gusty downdraft winds may occur with the more robust cores. However, weak deep-layer shear should keep the overall severe wind threat rather isolated. ...East Texas into Southern Louisiana/Mississippi... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may develop along a weak front from parts of east TX into southern LA/MS later this afternoon. This activity would occur on the back side of a remnant mid-level circulation over the Mid-South. While modestly enhanced mid-level flow will be present, the potential for a more organized severe wind threat appears too low to include probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible over parts of the north-central Plains this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to trim the northern Plains Marginal behind ongoing convection, otherwise the Day 1 Convective Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 09/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024/ ...Northern/Central Plains... Modest ascent associated with a weak shortwave trough over eastern WY is encouraging towering cu and recent thunderstorm initiation across parts of western/central NE late this morning. This convective development is also occurring along/near a weak surface trough. Even though large-scale ascent is expected to remain fairly modest across much of the northern/central Plains today in the wake of a more prominent upper trough moving northeastward over central Canada, most guidance still shows potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon across parts of northwest NE into western/central SD along/near the surface trough. With modest/shallow low-level moisture in place, but steep mid-level lapse rates per 12Z LBF/UNR soundings, robust daytime heating will likely support around 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon. West-southwesterly flow at mid levels is forecast to be only modestly enhanced by the passing shortwave trough. Still, a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile with height through mid levels should support around 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear. Occasional hail may occur with any marginal supercells that can initially develop, although tendency for clustering and outflow interactions may lead to an isolated severe wind threat with time late this afternoon and early evening. The overall severe risk should quickly wane this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Southern High Plains... At least isolated high-based thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the TX Panhandle and vicinity along/east of a weak surface front/trough. With a deeply mixed boundary layer expected with daytime heating, occasional strong/gusty downdraft winds may occur with the more robust cores. However, weak deep-layer shear should keep the overall severe wind threat rather isolated. ...East Texas into Southern Louisiana/Mississippi... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may develop along a weak front from parts of east TX into southern LA/MS later this afternoon. This activity would occur on the back side of a remnant mid-level circulation over the Mid-South. While modestly enhanced mid-level flow will be present, the potential for a more organized severe wind threat appears too low to include probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible over parts of the north-central Plains this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to trim the northern Plains Marginal behind ongoing convection, otherwise the Day 1 Convective Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 09/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024/ ...Northern/Central Plains... Modest ascent associated with a weak shortwave trough over eastern WY is encouraging towering cu and recent thunderstorm initiation across parts of western/central NE late this morning. This convective development is also occurring along/near a weak surface trough. Even though large-scale ascent is expected to remain fairly modest across much of the northern/central Plains today in the wake of a more prominent upper trough moving northeastward over central Canada, most guidance still shows potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon across parts of northwest NE into western/central SD along/near the surface trough. With modest/shallow low-level moisture in place, but steep mid-level lapse rates per 12Z LBF/UNR soundings, robust daytime heating will likely support around 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon. West-southwesterly flow at mid levels is forecast to be only modestly enhanced by the passing shortwave trough. Still, a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile with height through mid levels should support around 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear. Occasional hail may occur with any marginal supercells that can initially develop, although tendency for clustering and outflow interactions may lead to an isolated severe wind threat with time late this afternoon and early evening. The overall severe risk should quickly wane this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Southern High Plains... At least isolated high-based thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the TX Panhandle and vicinity along/east of a weak surface front/trough. With a deeply mixed boundary layer expected with daytime heating, occasional strong/gusty downdraft winds may occur with the more robust cores. However, weak deep-layer shear should keep the overall severe wind threat rather isolated. ...East Texas into Southern Louisiana/Mississippi... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may develop along a weak front from parts of east TX into southern LA/MS later this afternoon. This activity would occur on the back side of a remnant mid-level circulation over the Mid-South. While modestly enhanced mid-level flow will be present, the potential for a more organized severe wind threat appears too low to include probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible over parts of the north-central Plains this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to trim the northern Plains Marginal behind ongoing convection, otherwise the Day 1 Convective Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 09/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024/ ...Northern/Central Plains... Modest ascent associated with a weak shortwave trough over eastern WY is encouraging towering cu and recent thunderstorm initiation across parts of western/central NE late this morning. This convective development is also occurring along/near a weak surface trough. Even though large-scale ascent is expected to remain fairly modest across much of the northern/central Plains today in the wake of a more prominent upper trough moving northeastward over central Canada, most guidance still shows potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon across parts of northwest NE into western/central SD along/near the surface trough. With modest/shallow low-level moisture in place, but steep mid-level lapse rates per 12Z LBF/UNR soundings, robust daytime heating will likely support around 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon. West-southwesterly flow at mid levels is forecast to be only modestly enhanced by the passing shortwave trough. Still, a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile with height through mid levels should support around 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear. Occasional hail may occur with any marginal supercells that can initially develop, although tendency for clustering and outflow interactions may lead to an isolated severe wind threat with time late this afternoon and early evening. The overall severe risk should quickly wane this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Southern High Plains... At least isolated high-based thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the TX Panhandle and vicinity along/east of a weak surface front/trough. With a deeply mixed boundary layer expected with daytime heating, occasional strong/gusty downdraft winds may occur with the more robust cores. However, weak deep-layer shear should keep the overall severe wind threat rather isolated. ...East Texas into Southern Louisiana/Mississippi... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may develop along a weak front from parts of east TX into southern LA/MS later this afternoon. This activity would occur on the back side of a remnant mid-level circulation over the Mid-South. While modestly enhanced mid-level flow will be present, the potential for a more organized severe wind threat appears too low to include probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible over parts of the north-central Plains this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to trim the northern Plains Marginal behind ongoing convection, otherwise the Day 1 Convective Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 09/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024/ ...Northern/Central Plains... Modest ascent associated with a weak shortwave trough over eastern WY is encouraging towering cu and recent thunderstorm initiation across parts of western/central NE late this morning. This convective development is also occurring along/near a weak surface trough. Even though large-scale ascent is expected to remain fairly modest across much of the northern/central Plains today in the wake of a more prominent upper trough moving northeastward over central Canada, most guidance still shows potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon across parts of northwest NE into western/central SD along/near the surface trough. With modest/shallow low-level moisture in place, but steep mid-level lapse rates per 12Z LBF/UNR soundings, robust daytime heating will likely support around 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon. West-southwesterly flow at mid levels is forecast to be only modestly enhanced by the passing shortwave trough. Still, a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile with height through mid levels should support around 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear. Occasional hail may occur with any marginal supercells that can initially develop, although tendency for clustering and outflow interactions may lead to an isolated severe wind threat with time late this afternoon and early evening. The overall severe risk should quickly wane this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Southern High Plains... At least isolated high-based thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the TX Panhandle and vicinity along/east of a weak surface front/trough. With a deeply mixed boundary layer expected with daytime heating, occasional strong/gusty downdraft winds may occur with the more robust cores. However, weak deep-layer shear should keep the overall severe wind threat rather isolated. ...East Texas into Southern Louisiana/Mississippi... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may develop along a weak front from parts of east TX into southern LA/MS later this afternoon. This activity would occur on the back side of a remnant mid-level circulation over the Mid-South. While modestly enhanced mid-level flow will be present, the potential for a more organized severe wind threat appears too low to include probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible over parts of the north-central Plains this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... Minimal changes have been made to trim the northern Plains Marginal behind ongoing convection, otherwise the Day 1 Convective Outlook remains on track. See previous discussion below for more information. ..Thornton/Gleason.. 09/14/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024/ ...Northern/Central Plains... Modest ascent associated with a weak shortwave trough over eastern WY is encouraging towering cu and recent thunderstorm initiation across parts of western/central NE late this morning. This convective development is also occurring along/near a weak surface trough. Even though large-scale ascent is expected to remain fairly modest across much of the northern/central Plains today in the wake of a more prominent upper trough moving northeastward over central Canada, most guidance still shows potential for isolated to scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon across parts of northwest NE into western/central SD along/near the surface trough. With modest/shallow low-level moisture in place, but steep mid-level lapse rates per 12Z LBF/UNR soundings, robust daytime heating will likely support around 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE by mid afternoon. West-southwesterly flow at mid levels is forecast to be only modestly enhanced by the passing shortwave trough. Still, a veering and gradually strengthening wind profile with height through mid levels should support around 25-35 kt of deep-layer shear. Occasional hail may occur with any marginal supercells that can initially develop, although tendency for clustering and outflow interactions may lead to an isolated severe wind threat with time late this afternoon and early evening. The overall severe risk should quickly wane this evening with the loss of daytime heating. ...Southern High Plains... At least isolated high-based thunderstorms should develop this afternoon across parts of the TX Panhandle and vicinity along/east of a weak surface front/trough. With a deeply mixed boundary layer expected with daytime heating, occasional strong/gusty downdraft winds may occur with the more robust cores. However, weak deep-layer shear should keep the overall severe wind threat rather isolated. ...East Texas into Southern Louisiana/Mississippi... Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms may develop along a weak front from parts of east TX into southern LA/MS later this afternoon. This activity would occur on the back side of a remnant mid-level circulation over the Mid-South. While modestly enhanced mid-level flow will be present, the potential for a more organized severe wind threat appears too low to include probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A broad mid-level trough, with multiple embedded impulses, will amplify while gradually translating eastward from the West Coast to the Plains states through the upcoming week. Rainfall should accompany the passing mid-level trough across the Interior West through early parts of the week. Ahead of the mid-level trough, patches of overlapping dry and breezy conditions may develop along parts of the High Plains through Day 5/Wednesday. These conditions are too localized to address with Critical probabilities this outlook, though Elevated highlights may be introduced by Days 1-2. A dry low-level air mass should linger over parts of the Ohio Valley through the middle of the upcoming week. Surface high pressure across the Northeast will encourage dry easterly flow atop receptive fuels over portions of Indiana into Ohio and surrounding areas. Medium-range guidance consensus suggests that surface winds should not be overly strong, so any fire weather highlights that are added would probably take place in the Days 1-2 time frame if areas of locally higher gusts becomes apparent in short-range guidance. ..Squitieri.. 09/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A broad mid-level trough, with multiple embedded impulses, will amplify while gradually translating eastward from the West Coast to the Plains states through the upcoming week. Rainfall should accompany the passing mid-level trough across the Interior West through early parts of the week. Ahead of the mid-level trough, patches of overlapping dry and breezy conditions may develop along parts of the High Plains through Day 5/Wednesday. These conditions are too localized to address with Critical probabilities this outlook, though Elevated highlights may be introduced by Days 1-2. A dry low-level air mass should linger over parts of the Ohio Valley through the middle of the upcoming week. Surface high pressure across the Northeast will encourage dry easterly flow atop receptive fuels over portions of Indiana into Ohio and surrounding areas. Medium-range guidance consensus suggests that surface winds should not be overly strong, so any fire weather highlights that are added would probably take place in the Days 1-2 time frame if areas of locally higher gusts becomes apparent in short-range guidance. ..Squitieri.. 09/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A broad mid-level trough, with multiple embedded impulses, will amplify while gradually translating eastward from the West Coast to the Plains states through the upcoming week. Rainfall should accompany the passing mid-level trough across the Interior West through early parts of the week. Ahead of the mid-level trough, patches of overlapping dry and breezy conditions may develop along parts of the High Plains through Day 5/Wednesday. These conditions are too localized to address with Critical probabilities this outlook, though Elevated highlights may be introduced by Days 1-2. A dry low-level air mass should linger over parts of the Ohio Valley through the middle of the upcoming week. Surface high pressure across the Northeast will encourage dry easterly flow atop receptive fuels over portions of Indiana into Ohio and surrounding areas. Medium-range guidance consensus suggests that surface winds should not be overly strong, so any fire weather highlights that are added would probably take place in the Days 1-2 time frame if areas of locally higher gusts becomes apparent in short-range guidance. ..Squitieri.. 09/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Valid 161200Z - 221200Z A broad mid-level trough, with multiple embedded impulses, will amplify while gradually translating eastward from the West Coast to the Plains states through the upcoming week. Rainfall should accompany the passing mid-level trough across the Interior West through early parts of the week. Ahead of the mid-level trough, patches of overlapping dry and breezy conditions may develop along parts of the High Plains through Day 5/Wednesday. These conditions are too localized to address with Critical probabilities this outlook, though Elevated highlights may be introduced by Days 1-2. A dry low-level air mass should linger over parts of the Ohio Valley through the middle of the upcoming week. Surface high pressure across the Northeast will encourage dry easterly flow atop receptive fuels over portions of Indiana into Ohio and surrounding areas. Medium-range guidance consensus suggests that surface winds should not be overly strong, so any fire weather highlights that are added would probably take place in the Days 1-2 time frame if areas of locally higher gusts becomes apparent in short-range guidance. ..Squitieri.. 09/14/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more