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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across south Texas. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An expansive mid/upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS will move slowly eastward on Monday, while upstream midlevel height rises reinforce surface high pressure from the northern Plains into the Southeast. As a result, boundary-layer moisture will remain confined to the Gulf of Mexico, limiting thunderstorm potential across much of the CONUS. The one exception will be over south TX, where a weak frontal wave interacting with sufficient boundary-layer moisture will promote scattered showers with isolated/embedded lightning potential. Any stronger storms should remain offshore, where instability will be greater. ..Weinman.. 11/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across south Texas. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An expansive mid/upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS will move slowly eastward on Monday, while upstream midlevel height rises reinforce surface high pressure from the northern Plains into the Southeast. As a result, boundary-layer moisture will remain confined to the Gulf of Mexico, limiting thunderstorm potential across much of the CONUS. The one exception will be over south TX, where a weak frontal wave interacting with sufficient boundary-layer moisture will promote scattered showers with isolated/embedded lightning potential. Any stronger storms should remain offshore, where instability will be greater. ..Weinman.. 11/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across south Texas. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An expansive mid/upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS will move slowly eastward on Monday, while upstream midlevel height rises reinforce surface high pressure from the northern Plains into the Southeast. As a result, boundary-layer moisture will remain confined to the Gulf of Mexico, limiting thunderstorm potential across much of the CONUS. The one exception will be over south TX, where a weak frontal wave interacting with sufficient boundary-layer moisture will promote scattered showers with isolated/embedded lightning potential. Any stronger storms should remain offshore, where instability will be greater. ..Weinman.. 11/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across south Texas. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An expansive mid/upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS will move slowly eastward on Monday, while upstream midlevel height rises reinforce surface high pressure from the northern Plains into the Southeast. As a result, boundary-layer moisture will remain confined to the Gulf of Mexico, limiting thunderstorm potential across much of the CONUS. The one exception will be over south TX, where a weak frontal wave interacting with sufficient boundary-layer moisture will promote scattered showers with isolated/embedded lightning potential. Any stronger storms should remain offshore, where instability will be greater. ..Weinman.. 11/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0122 PM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across south Texas. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... An expansive mid/upper-level trough over the eastern CONUS will move slowly eastward on Monday, while upstream midlevel height rises reinforce surface high pressure from the northern Plains into the Southeast. As a result, boundary-layer moisture will remain confined to the Gulf of Mexico, limiting thunderstorm potential across much of the CONUS. The one exception will be over south TX, where a weak frontal wave interacting with sufficient boundary-layer moisture will promote scattered showers with isolated/embedded lightning potential. Any stronger storms should remain offshore, where instability will be greater. ..Weinman.. 11/30/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No changes need to be made to the fire-weather forecast for Sunday. Please see the previous discussion from below. ..Barnes.. 11/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1234 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Ridging will continue to build across the West while persistent toughing remains across the central/eastern CONUS. This will result in localized offshore flow across parts of Southern CA, but in general, quiet fire-weather conditions are expected to prevail across the CONUS on Sunday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No changes need to be made to the fire-weather forecast for Sunday. Please see the previous discussion from below. ..Barnes.. 11/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1234 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Ridging will continue to build across the West while persistent toughing remains across the central/eastern CONUS. This will result in localized offshore flow across parts of Southern CA, but in general, quiet fire-weather conditions are expected to prevail across the CONUS on Sunday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No changes need to be made to the fire-weather forecast for Sunday. Please see the previous discussion from below. ..Barnes.. 11/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1234 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Ridging will continue to build across the West while persistent toughing remains across the central/eastern CONUS. This will result in localized offshore flow across parts of Southern CA, but in general, quiet fire-weather conditions are expected to prevail across the CONUS on Sunday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No changes need to be made to the fire-weather forecast for Sunday. Please see the previous discussion from below. ..Barnes.. 11/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1234 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Ridging will continue to build across the West while persistent toughing remains across the central/eastern CONUS. This will result in localized offshore flow across parts of Southern CA, but in general, quiet fire-weather conditions are expected to prevail across the CONUS on Sunday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No changes need to be made to the fire-weather forecast for Sunday. Please see the previous discussion from below. ..Barnes.. 11/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1234 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Ridging will continue to build across the West while persistent toughing remains across the central/eastern CONUS. This will result in localized offshore flow across parts of Southern CA, but in general, quiet fire-weather conditions are expected to prevail across the CONUS on Sunday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... No changes need to be made to the fire-weather forecast for Sunday. Please see the previous discussion from below. ..Barnes.. 11/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1234 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Ridging will continue to build across the West while persistent toughing remains across the central/eastern CONUS. This will result in localized offshore flow across parts of Southern CA, but in general, quiet fire-weather conditions are expected to prevail across the CONUS on Sunday. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2246 CONCERNING HEAVY SNOW FOR THE I-70 CORRIDOR IN MO
Mesoscale Discussion 2246 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0916 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Areas affected...the I-70 corridor in MO Concerning...Heavy snow Valid 301516Z - 301845Z SUMMARY...A narrow band of moderate to heavy snow should produce rates near 1 in/hr as it shifts east along the I-70 corridor from the Kansas City towards the St. Louis Metro Areas into early afternoon. DISCUSSION...Multiple bands have recently consolidated into a higher-reflectivity singular band along the I-70 corridor in eastern KS to western MO. This has impacted the Topeka to Kansas City Metro Areas with heavy snow being reported in the 15Z obs at TOP and MKC. Along the leading edge of the 35-dBZ reflectivity, enhanced KDP values of 0.6-0.7 deg/km have been coincident with the dendritic layer aloft, indicative of rates around 1 in/hr. While 12Z models (outside of the RAP) have signaled lesser snowfall rates relative to 00Z guidance, the 00Z WRF-NSSL had a decent representation of the band, albeit a few hours too slow. It appears this band will probably continue eastward along the I-70 corridor towards the St. Louis Metro Area into early afternoon. ..Grams.. 11/30/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TOP... LAT...LON 39259491 39259273 39209163 39119105 38899047 38509044 38399081 38389161 38519314 38629445 38919513 39259491 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough will persist across the eastern half of the CONUS, while an expansive continental polar air mass is reinforced from the northern Plains into the Southeast. Accompanying the large-scale trough, cold midlevel temperatures above the relatively warmer Great Lakes will contribute to steep lapse rates and weak instability. An isolated lightning flash cannot be ruled out within the stronger lake-effect snow bands downwind of Lake Ontario and possibly over Lake Huron, though coverage appears too limited for General Thunderstorm highlights. Farther south, ample boundary-layer moisture in the vicinity of a weak frontal-wave low off the Lower TX Coast will support isolated thunderstorms during the overnight hours, though most of this activity should remain offshore. ..Weinman.. 11/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough will persist across the eastern half of the CONUS, while an expansive continental polar air mass is reinforced from the northern Plains into the Southeast. Accompanying the large-scale trough, cold midlevel temperatures above the relatively warmer Great Lakes will contribute to steep lapse rates and weak instability. An isolated lightning flash cannot be ruled out within the stronger lake-effect snow bands downwind of Lake Ontario and possibly over Lake Huron, though coverage appears too limited for General Thunderstorm highlights. Farther south, ample boundary-layer moisture in the vicinity of a weak frontal-wave low off the Lower TX Coast will support isolated thunderstorms during the overnight hours, though most of this activity should remain offshore. ..Weinman.. 11/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough will persist across the eastern half of the CONUS, while an expansive continental polar air mass is reinforced from the northern Plains into the Southeast. Accompanying the large-scale trough, cold midlevel temperatures above the relatively warmer Great Lakes will contribute to steep lapse rates and weak instability. An isolated lightning flash cannot be ruled out within the stronger lake-effect snow bands downwind of Lake Ontario and possibly over Lake Huron, though coverage appears too limited for General Thunderstorm highlights. Farther south, ample boundary-layer moisture in the vicinity of a weak frontal-wave low off the Lower TX Coast will support isolated thunderstorms during the overnight hours, though most of this activity should remain offshore. ..Weinman.. 11/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough will persist across the eastern half of the CONUS, while an expansive continental polar air mass is reinforced from the northern Plains into the Southeast. Accompanying the large-scale trough, cold midlevel temperatures above the relatively warmer Great Lakes will contribute to steep lapse rates and weak instability. An isolated lightning flash cannot be ruled out within the stronger lake-effect snow bands downwind of Lake Ontario and possibly over Lake Huron, though coverage appears too limited for General Thunderstorm highlights. Farther south, ample boundary-layer moisture in the vicinity of a weak frontal-wave low off the Lower TX Coast will support isolated thunderstorms during the overnight hours, though most of this activity should remain offshore. ..Weinman.. 11/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough will persist across the eastern half of the CONUS, while an expansive continental polar air mass is reinforced from the northern Plains into the Southeast. Accompanying the large-scale trough, cold midlevel temperatures above the relatively warmer Great Lakes will contribute to steep lapse rates and weak instability. An isolated lightning flash cannot be ruled out within the stronger lake-effect snow bands downwind of Lake Ontario and possibly over Lake Huron, though coverage appears too limited for General Thunderstorm highlights. Farther south, ample boundary-layer moisture in the vicinity of a weak frontal-wave low off the Lower TX Coast will support isolated thunderstorms during the overnight hours, though most of this activity should remain offshore. ..Weinman.. 11/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough will persist across the eastern half of the CONUS, while an expansive continental polar air mass is reinforced from the northern Plains into the Southeast. Accompanying the large-scale trough, cold midlevel temperatures above the relatively warmer Great Lakes will contribute to steep lapse rates and weak instability. An isolated lightning flash cannot be ruled out within the stronger lake-effect snow bands downwind of Lake Ontario and possibly over Lake Huron, though coverage appears too limited for General Thunderstorm highlights. Farther south, ample boundary-layer moisture in the vicinity of a weak frontal-wave low off the Lower TX Coast will support isolated thunderstorms during the overnight hours, though most of this activity should remain offshore. ..Weinman.. 11/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1114 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are not expected on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough will persist across the eastern half of the CONUS, while an expansive continental polar air mass is reinforced from the northern Plains into the Southeast. Accompanying the large-scale trough, cold midlevel temperatures above the relatively warmer Great Lakes will contribute to steep lapse rates and weak instability. An isolated lightning flash cannot be ruled out within the stronger lake-effect snow bands downwind of Lake Ontario and possibly over Lake Huron, though coverage appears too limited for General Thunderstorm highlights. Farther south, ample boundary-layer moisture in the vicinity of a weak frontal-wave low off the Lower TX Coast will support isolated thunderstorms during the overnight hours, though most of this activity should remain offshore. ..Weinman.. 11/30/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024 Valid 301700Z - 011200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Update... The fire-weather forecast remains unchanged for today. Localized northerly sustained wind speeds around 15 mph will briefly develop across portions of the FL peninsula this afternoon, where some receptive fuels are beginning to emerge. However, cooler temperatures behind the cold front will keep RH in the 40-50 percent range limiting the overall fire spread potential. Please see the previous discussion for additional details. ..Barnes.. 11/30/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1233 AM CST Sat Nov 30 2024/ ...Synopsis... Quiet fire-weather conditions are expected today, as most areas of the CONUS remain under the influence of an upper-level trough positioned over the eastern CONUS. An upper-level ridge is continuing to build across the West, with weak high pressure at the surface. This will result in offshore flow across parts of Southern CA, though this threat appears too localized to introduce any highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more