Aggregator

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0108 AM CST SAT DEC 28 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the East Texas to Alabama later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Central and southern Mississippi Central and northern Louisiana Western Alabama East Texas * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force Isolated large hail * SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms with tornadoes, wind damage, and large hail is expected today from parts of the southern Plains, eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states. Several long-track strong tornadoes are expected. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Edwards.. 12/28/2024 Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0108 AM CST SAT DEC 28 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the East Texas to Alabama later today and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Central and southern Mississippi Central and northern Louisiana Western Alabama East Texas * HAZARDS... Several tornadoes, a few intense Scattered damaging winds, some hurricane force Isolated large hail * SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms with tornadoes, wind damage, and large hail is expected today from parts of the southern Plains, eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states. Several long-track strong tornadoes are expected. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. && ..Edwards.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and upper Ohio Valley on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A pronounced upper-level trough will intensify as it pivots northeast across much of the eastern U.S. Sunday. An associated surface low will deepen as it moves northeast from western portions of KY/TN into the eastern Great Lakes region. A trailing cold front will move east across the southeast/mid-Atlantic states, approaching the coast during the afternoon/evening. ...Southeast/mid-Atlantic States... One or more lines of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12z Sunday near and in advance of the cold front, aided by large-scale ascent with the upper trough and low-level warm/moist advection. These early-day storms will have severe potential, primarily in the form of strong/damaging gusts. Low-level moisture, with surface dew points in the 60s, will advect north throughout the day, reaching as far north as the VA/NC border by afternoon. Extensive cloud cover will tend to temper heating/destabilization, with generally weak instability in advance of the cold front (pockets of MLCAPE between 500 and 1000 J/kg, locally higher over the northern FL peninsula). Thunderstorms should re-intensify or re-develop during the afternoon as the stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the moistening warm sector, with a linear structure likely the dominant storm mode along the cold front as it moves towards the coast by late afternoon/evening. Very strong low- and mid-level wind fields will aid in downward momentum transport resulting in damaging winds as the primary severe risk. Transient QLCS circulations will also pose a risk for a tornado or two, especially from portions of eastern GA across the central Carolinas, where the best overlap of instability and favorable low-level shear will exist. Isolated instances of hail will also be possible with the most intense updrafts. ...Upper Ohio Valley... Beneath the primary mid-level cold core near the center of the surface low, differential temperature advection above low-mid 50s F dewpoints should steepen low/mid-level lapse rates sufficiently for modest diurnal destabilization resulting in a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE. This may be sufficient for a risk of a few damaging wind gusts or small hail with low-topped strong storms, given 45-60 kt of low-level flow beneath the upper trough. ..Bunting.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and upper Ohio Valley on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A pronounced upper-level trough will intensify as it pivots northeast across much of the eastern U.S. Sunday. An associated surface low will deepen as it moves northeast from western portions of KY/TN into the eastern Great Lakes region. A trailing cold front will move east across the southeast/mid-Atlantic states, approaching the coast during the afternoon/evening. ...Southeast/mid-Atlantic States... One or more lines of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12z Sunday near and in advance of the cold front, aided by large-scale ascent with the upper trough and low-level warm/moist advection. These early-day storms will have severe potential, primarily in the form of strong/damaging gusts. Low-level moisture, with surface dew points in the 60s, will advect north throughout the day, reaching as far north as the VA/NC border by afternoon. Extensive cloud cover will tend to temper heating/destabilization, with generally weak instability in advance of the cold front (pockets of MLCAPE between 500 and 1000 J/kg, locally higher over the northern FL peninsula). Thunderstorms should re-intensify or re-develop during the afternoon as the stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the moistening warm sector, with a linear structure likely the dominant storm mode along the cold front as it moves towards the coast by late afternoon/evening. Very strong low- and mid-level wind fields will aid in downward momentum transport resulting in damaging winds as the primary severe risk. Transient QLCS circulations will also pose a risk for a tornado or two, especially from portions of eastern GA across the central Carolinas, where the best overlap of instability and favorable low-level shear will exist. Isolated instances of hail will also be possible with the most intense updrafts. ...Upper Ohio Valley... Beneath the primary mid-level cold core near the center of the surface low, differential temperature advection above low-mid 50s F dewpoints should steepen low/mid-level lapse rates sufficiently for modest diurnal destabilization resulting in a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE. This may be sufficient for a risk of a few damaging wind gusts or small hail with low-topped strong storms, given 45-60 kt of low-level flow beneath the upper trough. ..Bunting.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and upper Ohio Valley on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A pronounced upper-level trough will intensify as it pivots northeast across much of the eastern U.S. Sunday. An associated surface low will deepen as it moves northeast from western portions of KY/TN into the eastern Great Lakes region. A trailing cold front will move east across the southeast/mid-Atlantic states, approaching the coast during the afternoon/evening. ...Southeast/mid-Atlantic States... One or more lines of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12z Sunday near and in advance of the cold front, aided by large-scale ascent with the upper trough and low-level warm/moist advection. These early-day storms will have severe potential, primarily in the form of strong/damaging gusts. Low-level moisture, with surface dew points in the 60s, will advect north throughout the day, reaching as far north as the VA/NC border by afternoon. Extensive cloud cover will tend to temper heating/destabilization, with generally weak instability in advance of the cold front (pockets of MLCAPE between 500 and 1000 J/kg, locally higher over the northern FL peninsula). Thunderstorms should re-intensify or re-develop during the afternoon as the stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the moistening warm sector, with a linear structure likely the dominant storm mode along the cold front as it moves towards the coast by late afternoon/evening. Very strong low- and mid-level wind fields will aid in downward momentum transport resulting in damaging winds as the primary severe risk. Transient QLCS circulations will also pose a risk for a tornado or two, especially from portions of eastern GA across the central Carolinas, where the best overlap of instability and favorable low-level shear will exist. Isolated instances of hail will also be possible with the most intense updrafts. ...Upper Ohio Valley... Beneath the primary mid-level cold core near the center of the surface low, differential temperature advection above low-mid 50s F dewpoints should steepen low/mid-level lapse rates sufficiently for modest diurnal destabilization resulting in a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE. This may be sufficient for a risk of a few damaging wind gusts or small hail with low-topped strong storms, given 45-60 kt of low-level flow beneath the upper trough. ..Bunting.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and upper Ohio Valley on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A pronounced upper-level trough will intensify as it pivots northeast across much of the eastern U.S. Sunday. An associated surface low will deepen as it moves northeast from western portions of KY/TN into the eastern Great Lakes region. A trailing cold front will move east across the southeast/mid-Atlantic states, approaching the coast during the afternoon/evening. ...Southeast/mid-Atlantic States... One or more lines of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12z Sunday near and in advance of the cold front, aided by large-scale ascent with the upper trough and low-level warm/moist advection. These early-day storms will have severe potential, primarily in the form of strong/damaging gusts. Low-level moisture, with surface dew points in the 60s, will advect north throughout the day, reaching as far north as the VA/NC border by afternoon. Extensive cloud cover will tend to temper heating/destabilization, with generally weak instability in advance of the cold front (pockets of MLCAPE between 500 and 1000 J/kg, locally higher over the northern FL peninsula). Thunderstorms should re-intensify or re-develop during the afternoon as the stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the moistening warm sector, with a linear structure likely the dominant storm mode along the cold front as it moves towards the coast by late afternoon/evening. Very strong low- and mid-level wind fields will aid in downward momentum transport resulting in damaging winds as the primary severe risk. Transient QLCS circulations will also pose a risk for a tornado or two, especially from portions of eastern GA across the central Carolinas, where the best overlap of instability and favorable low-level shear will exist. Isolated instances of hail will also be possible with the most intense updrafts. ...Upper Ohio Valley... Beneath the primary mid-level cold core near the center of the surface low, differential temperature advection above low-mid 50s F dewpoints should steepen low/mid-level lapse rates sufficiently for modest diurnal destabilization resulting in a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE. This may be sufficient for a risk of a few damaging wind gusts or small hail with low-topped strong storms, given 45-60 kt of low-level flow beneath the upper trough. ..Bunting.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and upper Ohio Valley on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A pronounced upper-level trough will intensify as it pivots northeast across much of the eastern U.S. Sunday. An associated surface low will deepen as it moves northeast from western portions of KY/TN into the eastern Great Lakes region. A trailing cold front will move east across the southeast/mid-Atlantic states, approaching the coast during the afternoon/evening. ...Southeast/mid-Atlantic States... One or more lines of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12z Sunday near and in advance of the cold front, aided by large-scale ascent with the upper trough and low-level warm/moist advection. These early-day storms will have severe potential, primarily in the form of strong/damaging gusts. Low-level moisture, with surface dew points in the 60s, will advect north throughout the day, reaching as far north as the VA/NC border by afternoon. Extensive cloud cover will tend to temper heating/destabilization, with generally weak instability in advance of the cold front (pockets of MLCAPE between 500 and 1000 J/kg, locally higher over the northern FL peninsula). Thunderstorms should re-intensify or re-develop during the afternoon as the stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the moistening warm sector, with a linear structure likely the dominant storm mode along the cold front as it moves towards the coast by late afternoon/evening. Very strong low- and mid-level wind fields will aid in downward momentum transport resulting in damaging winds as the primary severe risk. Transient QLCS circulations will also pose a risk for a tornado or two, especially from portions of eastern GA across the central Carolinas, where the best overlap of instability and favorable low-level shear will exist. Isolated instances of hail will also be possible with the most intense updrafts. ...Upper Ohio Valley... Beneath the primary mid-level cold core near the center of the surface low, differential temperature advection above low-mid 50s F dewpoints should steepen low/mid-level lapse rates sufficiently for modest diurnal destabilization resulting in a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE. This may be sufficient for a risk of a few damaging wind gusts or small hail with low-topped strong storms, given 45-60 kt of low-level flow beneath the upper trough. ..Bunting.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and upper Ohio Valley on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A pronounced upper-level trough will intensify as it pivots northeast across much of the eastern U.S. Sunday. An associated surface low will deepen as it moves northeast from western portions of KY/TN into the eastern Great Lakes region. A trailing cold front will move east across the southeast/mid-Atlantic states, approaching the coast during the afternoon/evening. ...Southeast/mid-Atlantic States... One or more lines of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12z Sunday near and in advance of the cold front, aided by large-scale ascent with the upper trough and low-level warm/moist advection. These early-day storms will have severe potential, primarily in the form of strong/damaging gusts. Low-level moisture, with surface dew points in the 60s, will advect north throughout the day, reaching as far north as the VA/NC border by afternoon. Extensive cloud cover will tend to temper heating/destabilization, with generally weak instability in advance of the cold front (pockets of MLCAPE between 500 and 1000 J/kg, locally higher over the northern FL peninsula). Thunderstorms should re-intensify or re-develop during the afternoon as the stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the moistening warm sector, with a linear structure likely the dominant storm mode along the cold front as it moves towards the coast by late afternoon/evening. Very strong low- and mid-level wind fields will aid in downward momentum transport resulting in damaging winds as the primary severe risk. Transient QLCS circulations will also pose a risk for a tornado or two, especially from portions of eastern GA across the central Carolinas, where the best overlap of instability and favorable low-level shear will exist. Isolated instances of hail will also be possible with the most intense updrafts. ...Upper Ohio Valley... Beneath the primary mid-level cold core near the center of the surface low, differential temperature advection above low-mid 50s F dewpoints should steepen low/mid-level lapse rates sufficiently for modest diurnal destabilization resulting in a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE. This may be sufficient for a risk of a few damaging wind gusts or small hail with low-topped strong storms, given 45-60 kt of low-level flow beneath the upper trough. ..Bunting.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and upper Ohio Valley on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A pronounced upper-level trough will intensify as it pivots northeast across much of the eastern U.S. Sunday. An associated surface low will deepen as it moves northeast from western portions of KY/TN into the eastern Great Lakes region. A trailing cold front will move east across the southeast/mid-Atlantic states, approaching the coast during the afternoon/evening. ...Southeast/mid-Atlantic States... One or more lines of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12z Sunday near and in advance of the cold front, aided by large-scale ascent with the upper trough and low-level warm/moist advection. These early-day storms will have severe potential, primarily in the form of strong/damaging gusts. Low-level moisture, with surface dew points in the 60s, will advect north throughout the day, reaching as far north as the VA/NC border by afternoon. Extensive cloud cover will tend to temper heating/destabilization, with generally weak instability in advance of the cold front (pockets of MLCAPE between 500 and 1000 J/kg, locally higher over the northern FL peninsula). Thunderstorms should re-intensify or re-develop during the afternoon as the stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the moistening warm sector, with a linear structure likely the dominant storm mode along the cold front as it moves towards the coast by late afternoon/evening. Very strong low- and mid-level wind fields will aid in downward momentum transport resulting in damaging winds as the primary severe risk. Transient QLCS circulations will also pose a risk for a tornado or two, especially from portions of eastern GA across the central Carolinas, where the best overlap of instability and favorable low-level shear will exist. Isolated instances of hail will also be possible with the most intense updrafts. ...Upper Ohio Valley... Beneath the primary mid-level cold core near the center of the surface low, differential temperature advection above low-mid 50s F dewpoints should steepen low/mid-level lapse rates sufficiently for modest diurnal destabilization resulting in a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE. This may be sufficient for a risk of a few damaging wind gusts or small hail with low-topped strong storms, given 45-60 kt of low-level flow beneath the upper trough. ..Bunting.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0102 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms are possible across parts of the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and upper Ohio Valley on Sunday. ...Synopsis... A pronounced upper-level trough will intensify as it pivots northeast across much of the eastern U.S. Sunday. An associated surface low will deepen as it moves northeast from western portions of KY/TN into the eastern Great Lakes region. A trailing cold front will move east across the southeast/mid-Atlantic states, approaching the coast during the afternoon/evening. ...Southeast/mid-Atlantic States... One or more lines of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing at 12z Sunday near and in advance of the cold front, aided by large-scale ascent with the upper trough and low-level warm/moist advection. These early-day storms will have severe potential, primarily in the form of strong/damaging gusts. Low-level moisture, with surface dew points in the 60s, will advect north throughout the day, reaching as far north as the VA/NC border by afternoon. Extensive cloud cover will tend to temper heating/destabilization, with generally weak instability in advance of the cold front (pockets of MLCAPE between 500 and 1000 J/kg, locally higher over the northern FL peninsula). Thunderstorms should re-intensify or re-develop during the afternoon as the stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the moistening warm sector, with a linear structure likely the dominant storm mode along the cold front as it moves towards the coast by late afternoon/evening. Very strong low- and mid-level wind fields will aid in downward momentum transport resulting in damaging winds as the primary severe risk. Transient QLCS circulations will also pose a risk for a tornado or two, especially from portions of eastern GA across the central Carolinas, where the best overlap of instability and favorable low-level shear will exist. Isolated instances of hail will also be possible with the most intense updrafts. ...Upper Ohio Valley... Beneath the primary mid-level cold core near the center of the surface low, differential temperature advection above low-mid 50s F dewpoints should steepen low/mid-level lapse rates sufficiently for modest diurnal destabilization resulting in a few hundred J/kg of MUCAPE. This may be sufficient for a risk of a few damaging wind gusts or small hail with low-topped strong storms, given 45-60 kt of low-level flow beneath the upper trough. ..Bunting.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The western ridge will continue to build and shift eastward across the Rockies on D2 - Sunday. Across the Plains, a cooler continental air mass will remain in place with generally light winds. A few westerly downslope breezes will be possible across eastern New Mexico. Overall fire concerns will remain low. Little overlap of dry/windy conditions with receptive fuels is expected and thus no areas are needed at this time. ..Thornton.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The western ridge will continue to build and shift eastward across the Rockies on D2 - Sunday. Across the Plains, a cooler continental air mass will remain in place with generally light winds. A few westerly downslope breezes will be possible across eastern New Mexico. Overall fire concerns will remain low. Little overlap of dry/windy conditions with receptive fuels is expected and thus no areas are needed at this time. ..Thornton.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The western ridge will continue to build and shift eastward across the Rockies on D2 - Sunday. Across the Plains, a cooler continental air mass will remain in place with generally light winds. A few westerly downslope breezes will be possible across eastern New Mexico. Overall fire concerns will remain low. Little overlap of dry/windy conditions with receptive fuels is expected and thus no areas are needed at this time. ..Thornton.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The western ridge will continue to build and shift eastward across the Rockies on D2 - Sunday. Across the Plains, a cooler continental air mass will remain in place with generally light winds. A few westerly downslope breezes will be possible across eastern New Mexico. Overall fire concerns will remain low. Little overlap of dry/windy conditions with receptive fuels is expected and thus no areas are needed at this time. ..Thornton.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The western ridge will continue to build and shift eastward across the Rockies on D2 - Sunday. Across the Plains, a cooler continental air mass will remain in place with generally light winds. A few westerly downslope breezes will be possible across eastern New Mexico. Overall fire concerns will remain low. Little overlap of dry/windy conditions with receptive fuels is expected and thus no areas are needed at this time. ..Thornton.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The western ridge will continue to build and shift eastward across the Rockies on D2 - Sunday. Across the Plains, a cooler continental air mass will remain in place with generally light winds. A few westerly downslope breezes will be possible across eastern New Mexico. Overall fire concerns will remain low. Little overlap of dry/windy conditions with receptive fuels is expected and thus no areas are needed at this time. ..Thornton.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The western ridge will continue to build and shift eastward across the Rockies on D2 - Sunday. Across the Plains, a cooler continental air mass will remain in place with generally light winds. A few westerly downslope breezes will be possible across eastern New Mexico. Overall fire concerns will remain low. Little overlap of dry/windy conditions with receptive fuels is expected and thus no areas are needed at this time. ..Thornton.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1257 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... The western ridge will continue to build and shift eastward across the Rockies on D2 - Sunday. Across the Plains, a cooler continental air mass will remain in place with generally light winds. A few westerly downslope breezes will be possible across eastern New Mexico. Overall fire concerns will remain low. Little overlap of dry/windy conditions with receptive fuels is expected and thus no areas are needed at this time. ..Thornton.. 12/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND FAR WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms with tornadoes, wind damage, and large hail is expected today from parts of the southern Plains, eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states. Several long-track strong tornadoes are expected. ...Tornado Outbreak Likely This Afternoon and Evening Across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast States... A mid-level trough will move quickly eastward across the southern Plains today, as an associated mid-level jet moves through the base of the trough. A surface low will deepen across northeast Texas as a warm front advances northward into the Ark-La-Tex. Scattered thunderstorms will first develop near the surface low during the morning, as surface temperatures warm and as large-scale ascent rapidly increases due to the approaching system. Isolated large hail will be the initial severe threat across northeast Texas. The exit region of a 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet will overspread much of east Texas around midday, where more vigorous thunderstorms are expected to develop during the early afternoon. These storms will have potential to produce severe wind gusts, isolated large hail and tornadoes. A severe MCS appears likely to intensify and organize as this activity increases in coverage. Further to the east, an axis of maximized low-level moisture is expected to be in place during the early afternoon, oriented from southern Louisiana into western Mississippi. Surface dewpoints along and near the axis will be in the mid to upper 60s F. The moist axis will be aligned with a strengthening low-level jet. Scattered discrete cells are expected to initiate across the undisturbed moist sector during the afternoon, with several vigorous storms moving east-northeastward across the central Gulf Coast states. RAP forecast soundings near the exit region of the mid-level jet, from central Louisiana into central Mississippi, show steep mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km, with 0-6 km shear in the 45 to 55 knot range. This environment will support supercell development, with a potential for strong tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. Forecast soundings in the early to mid afternoon near the low-level jet from eastern Louisiana into south-central Mississippi show backed surface winds to the southeast, and increase 0-3 km storm-relatively helicity to around 300 m2/s2. This should be favorable for tornadic supercells. The low-level jet is forecast to move east-northeastward across the central Gulf Coast states in the mid to late afternoon. Supercells that can tap the higher surface dewpoints and stay within or near the axis of the low-level jet should be able to produce long-track EF3+ tornadoes, and several of these will be possible. The severe linear MCS further to the west, is expected to move quickly eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley during the afternoon, and will likely be accompanied with widespread severe wind gusts, with potential for gusts above 65 knots along the more intense part of the line. By early evening, this line of severe storms is expected to become the dominant feature across the region. Widespread wind damage is expected along the leading edge of the line from the central Gulf Coast states into southern parts of the Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes will be possible with embedded supercells within the line, and with line echo wave patterns that form. Due to the fast-moving mid-level trough, large-scale ascent is expected to support the severe linear MCS from the evening into the overnight. A potential for wind damage and tornadoes is expected to continue after midnight as the line moves across middle Tennessee and Alabama. The MCS with some severe potential, is expected to move into the southern Appalachians and northern to central Georgia by the end of the period. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1159 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND FAR WESTERN ALABAMA... ...SUMMARY... An outbreak of severe storms with tornadoes, wind damage, and large hail is expected today from parts of the southern Plains, eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast states. Several long-track strong tornadoes are expected. ...Tornado Outbreak Likely This Afternoon and Evening Across the Lower Mississippi Valley and Central Gulf Coast States... A mid-level trough will move quickly eastward across the southern Plains today, as an associated mid-level jet moves through the base of the trough. A surface low will deepen across northeast Texas as a warm front advances northward into the Ark-La-Tex. Scattered thunderstorms will first develop near the surface low during the morning, as surface temperatures warm and as large-scale ascent rapidly increases due to the approaching system. Isolated large hail will be the initial severe threat across northeast Texas. The exit region of a 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet will overspread much of east Texas around midday, where more vigorous thunderstorms are expected to develop during the early afternoon. These storms will have potential to produce severe wind gusts, isolated large hail and tornadoes. A severe MCS appears likely to intensify and organize as this activity increases in coverage. Further to the east, an axis of maximized low-level moisture is expected to be in place during the early afternoon, oriented from southern Louisiana into western Mississippi. Surface dewpoints along and near the axis will be in the mid to upper 60s F. The moist axis will be aligned with a strengthening low-level jet. Scattered discrete cells are expected to initiate across the undisturbed moist sector during the afternoon, with several vigorous storms moving east-northeastward across the central Gulf Coast states. RAP forecast soundings near the exit region of the mid-level jet, from central Louisiana into central Mississippi, show steep mid-level lapse rates around 8 C/km, with 0-6 km shear in the 45 to 55 knot range. This environment will support supercell development, with a potential for strong tornadoes, wind damage and isolated large hail. Forecast soundings in the early to mid afternoon near the low-level jet from eastern Louisiana into south-central Mississippi show backed surface winds to the southeast, and increase 0-3 km storm-relatively helicity to around 300 m2/s2. This should be favorable for tornadic supercells. The low-level jet is forecast to move east-northeastward across the central Gulf Coast states in the mid to late afternoon. Supercells that can tap the higher surface dewpoints and stay within or near the axis of the low-level jet should be able to produce long-track EF3+ tornadoes, and several of these will be possible. The severe linear MCS further to the west, is expected to move quickly eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley during the afternoon, and will likely be accompanied with widespread severe wind gusts, with potential for gusts above 65 knots along the more intense part of the line. By early evening, this line of severe storms is expected to become the dominant feature across the region. Widespread wind damage is expected along the leading edge of the line from the central Gulf Coast states into southern parts of the Tennessee Valley. Tornadoes will be possible with embedded supercells within the line, and with line echo wave patterns that form. Due to the fast-moving mid-level trough, large-scale ascent is expected to support the severe linear MCS from the evening into the overnight. A potential for wind damage and tornadoes is expected to continue after midnight as the line moves across middle Tennessee and Alabama. The MCS with some severe potential, is expected to move into the southern Appalachians and northern to central Georgia by the end of the period. ..Broyles/Thornton.. 12/28/2024 Read more