Aggregator

574
ABPZ20 KNHC 300505
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Sep 29 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to gradually develop off the
coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so.
Environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive for
additional development after that, and a tropical depression could
form by the middle or late portions of this week. The disturbance is
forecast to meander near or just offshore the coast for most of the
week, and then begin moving slowly west-northwestward, parallel to
the coast of Mexico by next weekend. Regardless of development, this
system is expected to contribute to additional heavy rainfall across
portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico, and interests there
should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
Another area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec during the next day or two. Gradual development of
the disturbance is possible after that, if the system remains
offshore the coast of southern Mexico. The disturbance is forecast
to move erratically through mid-week, and then potentially move
northward toward the coast later this week. Regardless of formation,
heavy rain is possible along most of the coast of southern Mexico
throughout this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 300505
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sun Sep 29 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to gradually develop off the
coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so.
Environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive for
additional development after that, and a tropical depression could
form by the middle or late portions of this week. The disturbance is
forecast to meander near or just offshore the coast for most of the
week, and then begin moving slowly west-northwestward, parallel to
the coast of Mexico by next weekend. Regardless of development, this
system is expected to contribute to additional heavy rainfall across
portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico, and interests there
should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
Another area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec during the next day or two. Gradual development of
the disturbance is possible after that, if the system remains
offshore the coast of southern Mexico. The disturbance is forecast
to move erratically through mid-week, and then potentially move
northward toward the coast later this week. Regardless of formation,
heavy rain is possible along most of the coast of southern Mexico
throughout this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A weakening shortwave trough will progress east over the Lower Mid-Atlantic States on Tuesday and offshore Tuesday night. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over eastern North Carolina to far southeast Virginia during the afternoon before the trough departs. A strong upper-level trough will move across parts of the northern Great Lakes. A surface cold front associated with this trough will similarly move eastward, progressing into the lower Ohio Valley and the lower Great Lakes through the afternoon and evening. With surface dewpoints in the low 60s, marginal surface-based buoyancy of 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE could develop ahead of the front. Warm 700 mb temperatures and weak low-level winds suggest severe storms are unlikely. Elsewhere, widely scattered to scattered storms are possible in the Florida Peninsula where sea breeze boundaries are likely to initiate storms in a moist environment. Mid-level moisture near the Mogollon Rim into parts of southern Arizona may promote isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon. ..Wendt.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A weakening shortwave trough will progress east over the Lower Mid-Atlantic States on Tuesday and offshore Tuesday night. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over eastern North Carolina to far southeast Virginia during the afternoon before the trough departs. A strong upper-level trough will move across parts of the northern Great Lakes. A surface cold front associated with this trough will similarly move eastward, progressing into the lower Ohio Valley and the lower Great Lakes through the afternoon and evening. With surface dewpoints in the low 60s, marginal surface-based buoyancy of 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE could develop ahead of the front. Warm 700 mb temperatures and weak low-level winds suggest severe storms are unlikely. Elsewhere, widely scattered to scattered storms are possible in the Florida Peninsula where sea breeze boundaries are likely to initiate storms in a moist environment. Mid-level moisture near the Mogollon Rim into parts of southern Arizona may promote isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon. ..Wendt.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A weakening shortwave trough will progress east over the Lower Mid-Atlantic States on Tuesday and offshore Tuesday night. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over eastern North Carolina to far southeast Virginia during the afternoon before the trough departs. A strong upper-level trough will move across parts of the northern Great Lakes. A surface cold front associated with this trough will similarly move eastward, progressing into the lower Ohio Valley and the lower Great Lakes through the afternoon and evening. With surface dewpoints in the low 60s, marginal surface-based buoyancy of 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE could develop ahead of the front. Warm 700 mb temperatures and weak low-level winds suggest severe storms are unlikely. Elsewhere, widely scattered to scattered storms are possible in the Florida Peninsula where sea breeze boundaries are likely to initiate storms in a moist environment. Mid-level moisture near the Mogollon Rim into parts of southern Arizona may promote isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon. ..Wendt.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A weakening shortwave trough will progress east over the Lower Mid-Atlantic States on Tuesday and offshore Tuesday night. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over eastern North Carolina to far southeast Virginia during the afternoon before the trough departs. A strong upper-level trough will move across parts of the northern Great Lakes. A surface cold front associated with this trough will similarly move eastward, progressing into the lower Ohio Valley and the lower Great Lakes through the afternoon and evening. With surface dewpoints in the low 60s, marginal surface-based buoyancy of 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE could develop ahead of the front. Warm 700 mb temperatures and weak low-level winds suggest severe storms are unlikely. Elsewhere, widely scattered to scattered storms are possible in the Florida Peninsula where sea breeze boundaries are likely to initiate storms in a moist environment. Mid-level moisture near the Mogollon Rim into parts of southern Arizona may promote isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon. ..Wendt.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1158 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday. ...Synopsis... A weakening shortwave trough will progress east over the Lower Mid-Atlantic States on Tuesday and offshore Tuesday night. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible over eastern North Carolina to far southeast Virginia during the afternoon before the trough departs. A strong upper-level trough will move across parts of the northern Great Lakes. A surface cold front associated with this trough will similarly move eastward, progressing into the lower Ohio Valley and the lower Great Lakes through the afternoon and evening. With surface dewpoints in the low 60s, marginal surface-based buoyancy of 500-750 J/kg MLCAPE could develop ahead of the front. Warm 700 mb temperatures and weak low-level winds suggest severe storms are unlikely. Elsewhere, widely scattered to scattered storms are possible in the Florida Peninsula where sea breeze boundaries are likely to initiate storms in a moist environment. Mid-level moisture near the Mogollon Rim into parts of southern Arizona may promote isolated thunderstorm development during the afternoon. ..Wendt.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An intense upper trough will move quickly from MT across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley through 00Z, and to the upper Great Lakes into Tuesday morning. In the low levels, a cold front will push east in concert with the upper trough, extending from Lake MI into western TX by 12Z Tuesday. Due to lack of moisture and instability ahead of the front, thunderstorms are not forecast with this system. To the east, a positive-tilt upper trough will remain over parts of the Appalachians, with 40-45 kt 500 mb southwesterlies from GA into the Carolinas. A weak surface low is forecast over the central Carolinas, and sufficient convergence may exist to support scattered daytime thunderstorms. Deep-layer shear on the order of 40 kt will exist, with elongated hodographs in the mid and high levels. However, poor lapse rates aloft should limit any potential to mainly non-severe outflow/gusts. Elsewhere, mid 70s F dewpoints within a weak flow regime will again favor scattered daytime storms over the FL Peninsula. Midlevel lapse rates will remain poor, limiting storm intensity despite ample moisture. Finally, isolated weak thunderstorms may occur over parts of AZ and NM during the peak heating hours. While under a midlevel ridge, 500 mb temperatures will still be cool at around -10 C, aiding lapse rates. ..Jewell/Bentley.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An intense upper trough will move quickly from MT across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley through 00Z, and to the upper Great Lakes into Tuesday morning. In the low levels, a cold front will push east in concert with the upper trough, extending from Lake MI into western TX by 12Z Tuesday. Due to lack of moisture and instability ahead of the front, thunderstorms are not forecast with this system. To the east, a positive-tilt upper trough will remain over parts of the Appalachians, with 40-45 kt 500 mb southwesterlies from GA into the Carolinas. A weak surface low is forecast over the central Carolinas, and sufficient convergence may exist to support scattered daytime thunderstorms. Deep-layer shear on the order of 40 kt will exist, with elongated hodographs in the mid and high levels. However, poor lapse rates aloft should limit any potential to mainly non-severe outflow/gusts. Elsewhere, mid 70s F dewpoints within a weak flow regime will again favor scattered daytime storms over the FL Peninsula. Midlevel lapse rates will remain poor, limiting storm intensity despite ample moisture. Finally, isolated weak thunderstorms may occur over parts of AZ and NM during the peak heating hours. While under a midlevel ridge, 500 mb temperatures will still be cool at around -10 C, aiding lapse rates. ..Jewell/Bentley.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An intense upper trough will move quickly from MT across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley through 00Z, and to the upper Great Lakes into Tuesday morning. In the low levels, a cold front will push east in concert with the upper trough, extending from Lake MI into western TX by 12Z Tuesday. Due to lack of moisture and instability ahead of the front, thunderstorms are not forecast with this system. To the east, a positive-tilt upper trough will remain over parts of the Appalachians, with 40-45 kt 500 mb southwesterlies from GA into the Carolinas. A weak surface low is forecast over the central Carolinas, and sufficient convergence may exist to support scattered daytime thunderstorms. Deep-layer shear on the order of 40 kt will exist, with elongated hodographs in the mid and high levels. However, poor lapse rates aloft should limit any potential to mainly non-severe outflow/gusts. Elsewhere, mid 70s F dewpoints within a weak flow regime will again favor scattered daytime storms over the FL Peninsula. Midlevel lapse rates will remain poor, limiting storm intensity despite ample moisture. Finally, isolated weak thunderstorms may occur over parts of AZ and NM during the peak heating hours. While under a midlevel ridge, 500 mb temperatures will still be cool at around -10 C, aiding lapse rates. ..Jewell/Bentley.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An intense upper trough will move quickly from MT across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley through 00Z, and to the upper Great Lakes into Tuesday morning. In the low levels, a cold front will push east in concert with the upper trough, extending from Lake MI into western TX by 12Z Tuesday. Due to lack of moisture and instability ahead of the front, thunderstorms are not forecast with this system. To the east, a positive-tilt upper trough will remain over parts of the Appalachians, with 40-45 kt 500 mb southwesterlies from GA into the Carolinas. A weak surface low is forecast over the central Carolinas, and sufficient convergence may exist to support scattered daytime thunderstorms. Deep-layer shear on the order of 40 kt will exist, with elongated hodographs in the mid and high levels. However, poor lapse rates aloft should limit any potential to mainly non-severe outflow/gusts. Elsewhere, mid 70s F dewpoints within a weak flow regime will again favor scattered daytime storms over the FL Peninsula. Midlevel lapse rates will remain poor, limiting storm intensity despite ample moisture. Finally, isolated weak thunderstorms may occur over parts of AZ and NM during the peak heating hours. While under a midlevel ridge, 500 mb temperatures will still be cool at around -10 C, aiding lapse rates. ..Jewell/Bentley.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1156 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected today. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An intense upper trough will move quickly from MT across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley through 00Z, and to the upper Great Lakes into Tuesday morning. In the low levels, a cold front will push east in concert with the upper trough, extending from Lake MI into western TX by 12Z Tuesday. Due to lack of moisture and instability ahead of the front, thunderstorms are not forecast with this system. To the east, a positive-tilt upper trough will remain over parts of the Appalachians, with 40-45 kt 500 mb southwesterlies from GA into the Carolinas. A weak surface low is forecast over the central Carolinas, and sufficient convergence may exist to support scattered daytime thunderstorms. Deep-layer shear on the order of 40 kt will exist, with elongated hodographs in the mid and high levels. However, poor lapse rates aloft should limit any potential to mainly non-severe outflow/gusts. Elsewhere, mid 70s F dewpoints within a weak flow regime will again favor scattered daytime storms over the FL Peninsula. Midlevel lapse rates will remain poor, limiting storm intensity despite ample moisture. Finally, isolated weak thunderstorms may occur over parts of AZ and NM during the peak heating hours. While under a midlevel ridge, 500 mb temperatures will still be cool at around -10 C, aiding lapse rates. ..Jewell/Bentley.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for the remainder of the period. ...Discussion... Scattered low-topped convection remains ongoing from WV into VA and central NC, where weak instability exists. This activity will continue to diminish with the loss of heating. To the south, stronger storms exist over the east-central FL Peninsula near Cape Canaveral. However, this activity is mostly producing heavy rain and lightning in a weak-shear environment, and will continue to spread offshore. Additional isolated activity cannot be ruled out a bit farther south and within the instability axis. Elsewhere, high-based convection from northern AZ across UT will gradually weaken as well with the loss of heating and as the influence of the upper trough to the north lessens. ..Jewell.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for the remainder of the period. ...Discussion... Scattered low-topped convection remains ongoing from WV into VA and central NC, where weak instability exists. This activity will continue to diminish with the loss of heating. To the south, stronger storms exist over the east-central FL Peninsula near Cape Canaveral. However, this activity is mostly producing heavy rain and lightning in a weak-shear environment, and will continue to spread offshore. Additional isolated activity cannot be ruled out a bit farther south and within the instability axis. Elsewhere, high-based convection from northern AZ across UT will gradually weaken as well with the loss of heating and as the influence of the upper trough to the north lessens. ..Jewell.. 09/30/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Valid 300100Z - 301200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast for the remainder of the period. ...Discussion... Scattered low-topped convection remains ongoing from WV into VA and central NC, where weak instability exists. This activity will continue to diminish with the loss of heating. To the south, stronger storms exist over the east-central FL Peninsula near Cape Canaveral. However, this activity is mostly producing heavy rain and lightning in a weak-shear environment, and will continue to spread offshore. Additional isolated activity cannot be ruled out a bit farther south and within the instability axis. Elsewhere, high-based convection from northern AZ across UT will gradually weaken as well with the loss of heating and as the influence of the upper trough to the north lessens. ..Jewell.. 09/30/2024 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sun Sep 29 23:52:01 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Sep 29 23:52:01 UTC 2024.

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 292325
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Sep 29 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to gradually develop off the
coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or so.
Environmental conditions are expected to be generally conducive for
additional development after that, and a tropical depression could
form by the middle or late portions of this week. The disturbance is
forecast to meander near or just offshore the coast for most of the
week, and then begin moving slowly west-northwestward, parallel to
the coast of Mexico by next weekend. Regardless of development, this
system is expected to contribute to additional heavy rainfall across
portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico, and interests there
should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
Another area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the Gulf
of Tehuantepec during the next couple of days. Gradual development
of the disturbance will be possible after that, if the system
remains offshore the coast of southern Mexico. The disturbance is
forecast to move erratically through mid-week, and then potentially
move northward toward the coast later this week. Regardless of
formation, heavy rain will be possible along most of the coast of
southern Mexico throughout this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Fire weather concerns may persist through the early parts of the upcoming work week across parts of the Rockies and High Plains, but confidence in robust fire weather concerns abates heading into the later parts of the week. Long-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in a gradually building upper ridge over the central CONUS through the next 7 days. This will maintain relatively dry conditions across the central Rockies and Plains where fuels are fairly dry. This upper-air regime will also favor surface low development primarily across the Canadian Prairies with occasional cold frontal intrusions into the Plains. Fire weather concerns will likely emerge as winds increase with each of these dry frontal passages. ...D3/Tuesday - High Plains and southern Wyoming... Breezy pressure gradient winds are anticipated along the central to northern High Plains D3/Tuesday afternoon amid weak troughing in the lee of the Canadian Rockies juxtaposed with a strong surface high over the central Great Plains. Winds generally in the 15-20 mph range appear most likely per recent ensemble solutions, but some locations may see winds up to 20-25 mph. Dry conditions will persist from this weekend into early next week with 15-25% RH expected by peak heating. Consequently, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible. Fire weather concerns may emerge across the Wyoming Basin as well within a westerly downslope flow regime; however, stronger mid-level flow is expected to be displaced to the north which limits confidence in a robust/sustained fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 09/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0314 PM CDT Sun Sep 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 071200Z Fire weather concerns may persist through the early parts of the upcoming work week across parts of the Rockies and High Plains, but confidence in robust fire weather concerns abates heading into the later parts of the week. Long-range guidance shows reasonably good agreement in a gradually building upper ridge over the central CONUS through the next 7 days. This will maintain relatively dry conditions across the central Rockies and Plains where fuels are fairly dry. This upper-air regime will also favor surface low development primarily across the Canadian Prairies with occasional cold frontal intrusions into the Plains. Fire weather concerns will likely emerge as winds increase with each of these dry frontal passages. ...D3/Tuesday - High Plains and southern Wyoming... Breezy pressure gradient winds are anticipated along the central to northern High Plains D3/Tuesday afternoon amid weak troughing in the lee of the Canadian Rockies juxtaposed with a strong surface high over the central Great Plains. Winds generally in the 15-20 mph range appear most likely per recent ensemble solutions, but some locations may see winds up to 20-25 mph. Dry conditions will persist from this weekend into early next week with 15-25% RH expected by peak heating. Consequently, elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions appear possible. Fire weather concerns may emerge across the Wyoming Basin as well within a westerly downslope flow regime; however, stronger mid-level flow is expected to be displaced to the north which limits confidence in a robust/sustained fire weather threat. ..Moore.. 09/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more