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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Discussion... Stronger flow aloft will remain confined to the northern half of the U.S. Friday, with a couple of troughs progressing through this belt of flow -- one moving across the northwestern quarter of the country, and a second crossing the Great Lakes and eventually reaching New England. While both of these upper systems will be accompanied by a surface cold front, low-level moisture -- and thus any appreciable instability -- will remain confined to the southeastern quarter of the CONUS. Showers and a few thunderstorms will again be possible -- mainly across the Gulf Coast states. However, with flow aloft remaining weak in tandem with synoptic-scale upper ridging, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Discussion... Stronger flow aloft will remain confined to the northern half of the U.S. Friday, with a couple of troughs progressing through this belt of flow -- one moving across the northwestern quarter of the country, and a second crossing the Great Lakes and eventually reaching New England. While both of these upper systems will be accompanied by a surface cold front, low-level moisture -- and thus any appreciable instability -- will remain confined to the southeastern quarter of the CONUS. Showers and a few thunderstorms will again be possible -- mainly across the Gulf Coast states. However, with flow aloft remaining weak in tandem with synoptic-scale upper ridging, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no adjustments required. Consideration was made for introducing an Elevated risk area across central NE to far western IA where winds will likely reach to near 20 mph. However, latest ensemble guidance shows somewhat poor agreement regarding post-frontal RH reductions and only 20-40% of reaching elevated wind/RH thresholds. Additionally, recent deterministic solutions have demonstrated a slight dry bias across the Plains, which introduces further uncertainty. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed in subsequent forecasts. ..Moore.. 10/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern will start to become less zonal on Thursday with a ridge traversing the Northwest and some troughing developing over the Upper Midwest. The surface pattern will be somewhat nebulous during the day Thursday with surface high pressure building into the northern Plains. Some breezy northeasterly flow may develop in portions of the Plains as this high moves south and the pressure gradient tightens. However, winds do not look that strong at this time, and the cooler airmass should lead to relative humidity mostly above 25 percent. Therefore, some localized elevated conditions are possible, but no Elevated delineation is justified at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no adjustments required. Consideration was made for introducing an Elevated risk area across central NE to far western IA where winds will likely reach to near 20 mph. However, latest ensemble guidance shows somewhat poor agreement regarding post-frontal RH reductions and only 20-40% of reaching elevated wind/RH thresholds. Additionally, recent deterministic solutions have demonstrated a slight dry bias across the Plains, which introduces further uncertainty. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed in subsequent forecasts. ..Moore.. 10/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern will start to become less zonal on Thursday with a ridge traversing the Northwest and some troughing developing over the Upper Midwest. The surface pattern will be somewhat nebulous during the day Thursday with surface high pressure building into the northern Plains. Some breezy northeasterly flow may develop in portions of the Plains as this high moves south and the pressure gradient tightens. However, winds do not look that strong at this time, and the cooler airmass should lead to relative humidity mostly above 25 percent. Therefore, some localized elevated conditions are possible, but no Elevated delineation is justified at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no adjustments required. Consideration was made for introducing an Elevated risk area across central NE to far western IA where winds will likely reach to near 20 mph. However, latest ensemble guidance shows somewhat poor agreement regarding post-frontal RH reductions and only 20-40% of reaching elevated wind/RH thresholds. Additionally, recent deterministic solutions have demonstrated a slight dry bias across the Plains, which introduces further uncertainty. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed in subsequent forecasts. ..Moore.. 10/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern will start to become less zonal on Thursday with a ridge traversing the Northwest and some troughing developing over the Upper Midwest. The surface pattern will be somewhat nebulous during the day Thursday with surface high pressure building into the northern Plains. Some breezy northeasterly flow may develop in portions of the Plains as this high moves south and the pressure gradient tightens. However, winds do not look that strong at this time, and the cooler airmass should lead to relative humidity mostly above 25 percent. Therefore, some localized elevated conditions are possible, but no Elevated delineation is justified at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no adjustments required. Consideration was made for introducing an Elevated risk area across central NE to far western IA where winds will likely reach to near 20 mph. However, latest ensemble guidance shows somewhat poor agreement regarding post-frontal RH reductions and only 20-40% of reaching elevated wind/RH thresholds. Additionally, recent deterministic solutions have demonstrated a slight dry bias across the Plains, which introduces further uncertainty. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed in subsequent forecasts. ..Moore.. 10/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern will start to become less zonal on Thursday with a ridge traversing the Northwest and some troughing developing over the Upper Midwest. The surface pattern will be somewhat nebulous during the day Thursday with surface high pressure building into the northern Plains. Some breezy northeasterly flow may develop in portions of the Plains as this high moves south and the pressure gradient tightens. However, winds do not look that strong at this time, and the cooler airmass should lead to relative humidity mostly above 25 percent. Therefore, some localized elevated conditions are possible, but no Elevated delineation is justified at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no adjustments required. Consideration was made for introducing an Elevated risk area across central NE to far western IA where winds will likely reach to near 20 mph. However, latest ensemble guidance shows somewhat poor agreement regarding post-frontal RH reductions and only 20-40% of reaching elevated wind/RH thresholds. Additionally, recent deterministic solutions have demonstrated a slight dry bias across the Plains, which introduces further uncertainty. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed in subsequent forecasts. ..Moore.. 10/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern will start to become less zonal on Thursday with a ridge traversing the Northwest and some troughing developing over the Upper Midwest. The surface pattern will be somewhat nebulous during the day Thursday with surface high pressure building into the northern Plains. Some breezy northeasterly flow may develop in portions of the Plains as this high moves south and the pressure gradient tightens. However, winds do not look that strong at this time, and the cooler airmass should lead to relative humidity mostly above 25 percent. Therefore, some localized elevated conditions are possible, but no Elevated delineation is justified at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track with no adjustments required. Consideration was made for introducing an Elevated risk area across central NE to far western IA where winds will likely reach to near 20 mph. However, latest ensemble guidance shows somewhat poor agreement regarding post-frontal RH reductions and only 20-40% of reaching elevated wind/RH thresholds. Additionally, recent deterministic solutions have demonstrated a slight dry bias across the Plains, which introduces further uncertainty. Trends will continue to be monitored and highlights may be needed in subsequent forecasts. ..Moore.. 10/02/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024/ ...Synopsis... The upper-level pattern will start to become less zonal on Thursday with a ridge traversing the Northwest and some troughing developing over the Upper Midwest. The surface pattern will be somewhat nebulous during the day Thursday with surface high pressure building into the northern Plains. Some breezy northeasterly flow may develop in portions of the Plains as this high moves south and the pressure gradient tightens. However, winds do not look that strong at this time, and the cooler airmass should lead to relative humidity mostly above 25 percent. Therefore, some localized elevated conditions are possible, but no Elevated delineation is justified at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021734
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1100 AM PDT Wed Oct 2 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eleven-E, located near the coast of southeastern
Mexico.

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP97):
Recent satellite imagery suggests that the area of low pressure that
was located a few hundred miles south of the coast of southeastern
Mexico is being absorbed by Tropical Depression Eleven-E, and is no
longer expected to become a tropical cyclone. Regardless, shower and
thunderstorm activity that was associated with this system is
expected to add to heavy rainfall across portions of the southern
coast of Mexico that were already adversely affected by substantial
rainfall last week. Interests in these areas should monitor the
progress of Tropical Depression Eleven-E as highlighted in advisory
data and Key Messages being issued on the system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven-E are issued under
WMO header WTPZ31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP1.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Depression Eleven-E are issued
under WMO header WTPZ21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP1.
Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO
header WTPZ41 KNHC.

$$
Forecaster Papin/Torres-Vazquez

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Weak flow aloft will prevail across the southern half of the U.S. Thursday, where general ridging aloft will prevail. Over the northern half of the country, faster flow will reside, with a trough forecast to progress across the north-central states and eventually reach the Upper Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward across the Great Lakes, and more slowly southward across the Plains. Meager low-level moisture is expected ahead of this front, however, with the richer/tropical moisture remaining confined to the Southeast and Gulf Coast states. Thus, lack of appreciable instability should preclude thunderstorm activity with this front. As a weak disturbance aloft drifts northward out of the central Gulf of Mexico and into the central Gulf Coast states, showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to evolve, from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Florida. However, weak flow aloft will preclude any appreciable risk for severe weather through the period. ..Goss.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Weak flow aloft will prevail across the southern half of the U.S. Thursday, where general ridging aloft will prevail. Over the northern half of the country, faster flow will reside, with a trough forecast to progress across the north-central states and eventually reach the Upper Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward across the Great Lakes, and more slowly southward across the Plains. Meager low-level moisture is expected ahead of this front, however, with the richer/tropical moisture remaining confined to the Southeast and Gulf Coast states. Thus, lack of appreciable instability should preclude thunderstorm activity with this front. As a weak disturbance aloft drifts northward out of the central Gulf of Mexico and into the central Gulf Coast states, showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to evolve, from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Florida. However, weak flow aloft will preclude any appreciable risk for severe weather through the period. ..Goss.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Weak flow aloft will prevail across the southern half of the U.S. Thursday, where general ridging aloft will prevail. Over the northern half of the country, faster flow will reside, with a trough forecast to progress across the north-central states and eventually reach the Upper Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward across the Great Lakes, and more slowly southward across the Plains. Meager low-level moisture is expected ahead of this front, however, with the richer/tropical moisture remaining confined to the Southeast and Gulf Coast states. Thus, lack of appreciable instability should preclude thunderstorm activity with this front. As a weak disturbance aloft drifts northward out of the central Gulf of Mexico and into the central Gulf Coast states, showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to evolve, from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Florida. However, weak flow aloft will preclude any appreciable risk for severe weather through the period. ..Goss.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Weak flow aloft will prevail across the southern half of the U.S. Thursday, where general ridging aloft will prevail. Over the northern half of the country, faster flow will reside, with a trough forecast to progress across the north-central states and eventually reach the Upper Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward across the Great Lakes, and more slowly southward across the Plains. Meager low-level moisture is expected ahead of this front, however, with the richer/tropical moisture remaining confined to the Southeast and Gulf Coast states. Thus, lack of appreciable instability should preclude thunderstorm activity with this front. As a weak disturbance aloft drifts northward out of the central Gulf of Mexico and into the central Gulf Coast states, showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to evolve, from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Florida. However, weak flow aloft will preclude any appreciable risk for severe weather through the period. ..Goss.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Weak flow aloft will prevail across the southern half of the U.S. Thursday, where general ridging aloft will prevail. Over the northern half of the country, faster flow will reside, with a trough forecast to progress across the north-central states and eventually reach the Upper Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward across the Great Lakes, and more slowly southward across the Plains. Meager low-level moisture is expected ahead of this front, however, with the richer/tropical moisture remaining confined to the Southeast and Gulf Coast states. Thus, lack of appreciable instability should preclude thunderstorm activity with this front. As a weak disturbance aloft drifts northward out of the central Gulf of Mexico and into the central Gulf Coast states, showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to evolve, from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Florida. However, weak flow aloft will preclude any appreciable risk for severe weather through the period. ..Goss.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Thursday. ...Discussion... Weak flow aloft will prevail across the southern half of the U.S. Thursday, where general ridging aloft will prevail. Over the northern half of the country, faster flow will reside, with a trough forecast to progress across the north-central states and eventually reach the Upper Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward across the Great Lakes, and more slowly southward across the Plains. Meager low-level moisture is expected ahead of this front, however, with the richer/tropical moisture remaining confined to the Southeast and Gulf Coast states. Thus, lack of appreciable instability should preclude thunderstorm activity with this front. As a weak disturbance aloft drifts northward out of the central Gulf of Mexico and into the central Gulf Coast states, showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to evolve, from the mouth of the Mississippi River to Florida. However, weak flow aloft will preclude any appreciable risk for severe weather through the period. ..Goss.. 10/02/2024 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 17:33:24 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 02 Oct 2024 15:29:50 GMT

Issued at 1200 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 021732 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 1200 PM CST Wed Oct 02 2024 ...DEPRESSION CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.6N 96.2W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 225 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...5 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within the next 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 14.6 North, longitude 96.2 West. The depression is moving toward the southwest near 3 mph (5 km/h). A turn toward the northwest is expected tonight, and that general motion should continue through Friday and Friday night. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will be near the coast of Mexico in the Tropical Storm Warning area late Thursday or Thursday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible before the center reaches the coast, and the system could become a tropical storm later today or tonight. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area later today through Thursday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...DEPRESSION CURRENTLY MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHWESTWARD SOUTH OF THE COAST OF EASTERN MEXICO... As of 12:00 PM CST Wed Oct 2 the center of Eleven-E was located near 14.6, -96.2 with movement SW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate a quasi-stationary surface boundary extending across portions of northern FL. South of the boundary, diurnal heating of a moist air mass, coupled with sea breeze circulations, will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm development. Deep tropospheric moisture and steepening low-level lapse rates may support a few wet microbursts with strong-gust potential over central FL -- where any localized clustering occurs. However, weak deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates should limit the organization and intensity of storms. ..Weinman.. 10/02/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1121 AM CDT Wed Oct 02 2024 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis... Latest visible satellite imagery and surface observations indicate a quasi-stationary surface boundary extending across portions of northern FL. South of the boundary, diurnal heating of a moist air mass, coupled with sea breeze circulations, will support scattered diurnal thunderstorm development. Deep tropospheric moisture and steepening low-level lapse rates may support a few wet microbursts with strong-gust potential over central FL -- where any localized clustering occurs. However, weak deep-layer shear and poor midlevel lapse rates should limit the organization and intensity of storms. ..Weinman.. 10/02/2024 Read more