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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z Elevated fire weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon across portions of the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains in Texas, where sustained northwesterly winds of 15-20 mph overlap minimum RH values near 15% and at least modestly receptive fuels. Primary modification with this forecast update was to extend the Elevated Fire Weather area a bit farther east across the Edwards Plateau, where the latest guidance suggests fuels are critically receptive - this area is also in Severe-to-Extreme drought based on the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 12/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will exit the Plains today before moving across the southeastern US. High pressure will build in across the western US, with heights rising over the Rockies. Cooler northwesterly flow will filter across the high terrain and into Plains, with increasing relative humidity. Increased northwesterly flow sustained around 15-20 mph (gusting 25-35 mph) will overlap relative-humidity reductions to around 15 percent across portions of far western Texas. Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Texas Hill Country near the Rio Grande. Though 100-hour fuels remain around the 50-70th percentile, fine fuels and freeze cured grasses may support fire spread given potential for stronger winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z Elevated fire weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon across portions of the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains in Texas, where sustained northwesterly winds of 15-20 mph overlap minimum RH values near 15% and at least modestly receptive fuels. Primary modification with this forecast update was to extend the Elevated Fire Weather area a bit farther east across the Edwards Plateau, where the latest guidance suggests fuels are critically receptive - this area is also in Severe-to-Extreme drought based on the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 12/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will exit the Plains today before moving across the southeastern US. High pressure will build in across the western US, with heights rising over the Rockies. Cooler northwesterly flow will filter across the high terrain and into Plains, with increasing relative humidity. Increased northwesterly flow sustained around 15-20 mph (gusting 25-35 mph) will overlap relative-humidity reductions to around 15 percent across portions of far western Texas. Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Texas Hill Country near the Rio Grande. Though 100-hour fuels remain around the 50-70th percentile, fine fuels and freeze cured grasses may support fire spread given potential for stronger winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z Elevated fire weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon across portions of the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains in Texas, where sustained northwesterly winds of 15-20 mph overlap minimum RH values near 15% and at least modestly receptive fuels. Primary modification with this forecast update was to extend the Elevated Fire Weather area a bit farther east across the Edwards Plateau, where the latest guidance suggests fuels are critically receptive - this area is also in Severe-to-Extreme drought based on the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 12/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will exit the Plains today before moving across the southeastern US. High pressure will build in across the western US, with heights rising over the Rockies. Cooler northwesterly flow will filter across the high terrain and into Plains, with increasing relative humidity. Increased northwesterly flow sustained around 15-20 mph (gusting 25-35 mph) will overlap relative-humidity reductions to around 15 percent across portions of far western Texas. Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Texas Hill Country near the Rio Grande. Though 100-hour fuels remain around the 50-70th percentile, fine fuels and freeze cured grasses may support fire spread given potential for stronger winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z Elevated fire weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon across portions of the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains in Texas, where sustained northwesterly winds of 15-20 mph overlap minimum RH values near 15% and at least modestly receptive fuels. Primary modification with this forecast update was to extend the Elevated Fire Weather area a bit farther east across the Edwards Plateau, where the latest guidance suggests fuels are critically receptive - this area is also in Severe-to-Extreme drought based on the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 12/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will exit the Plains today before moving across the southeastern US. High pressure will build in across the western US, with heights rising over the Rockies. Cooler northwesterly flow will filter across the high terrain and into Plains, with increasing relative humidity. Increased northwesterly flow sustained around 15-20 mph (gusting 25-35 mph) will overlap relative-humidity reductions to around 15 percent across portions of far western Texas. Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Texas Hill Country near the Rio Grande. Though 100-hour fuels remain around the 50-70th percentile, fine fuels and freeze cured grasses may support fire spread given potential for stronger winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z Elevated fire weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon across portions of the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains in Texas, where sustained northwesterly winds of 15-20 mph overlap minimum RH values near 15% and at least modestly receptive fuels. Primary modification with this forecast update was to extend the Elevated Fire Weather area a bit farther east across the Edwards Plateau, where the latest guidance suggests fuels are critically receptive - this area is also in Severe-to-Extreme drought based on the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 12/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will exit the Plains today before moving across the southeastern US. High pressure will build in across the western US, with heights rising over the Rockies. Cooler northwesterly flow will filter across the high terrain and into Plains, with increasing relative humidity. Increased northwesterly flow sustained around 15-20 mph (gusting 25-35 mph) will overlap relative-humidity reductions to around 15 percent across portions of far western Texas. Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Texas Hill Country near the Rio Grande. Though 100-hour fuels remain around the 50-70th percentile, fine fuels and freeze cured grasses may support fire spread given potential for stronger winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1042 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z Elevated fire weather conditions are expected for a few hours this afternoon across portions of the Edwards Plateau and Rio Grande Plains in Texas, where sustained northwesterly winds of 15-20 mph overlap minimum RH values near 15% and at least modestly receptive fuels. Primary modification with this forecast update was to extend the Elevated Fire Weather area a bit farther east across the Edwards Plateau, where the latest guidance suggests fuels are critically receptive - this area is also in Severe-to-Extreme drought based on the latest U.S. Drought Monitor. Please see the previous discussion below for more information on today's fire weather forecast. ..Elliott.. 12/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 PM CST Fri Dec 27 2024/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will exit the Plains today before moving across the southeastern US. High pressure will build in across the western US, with heights rising over the Rockies. Cooler northwesterly flow will filter across the high terrain and into Plains, with increasing relative humidity. Increased northwesterly flow sustained around 15-20 mph (gusting 25-35 mph) will overlap relative-humidity reductions to around 15 percent across portions of far western Texas. Elevated fire weather concerns are expected across parts of the Texas Hill Country near the Rio Grande. Though 100-hour fuels remain around the 50-70th percentile, fine fuels and freeze cured grasses may support fire spread given potential for stronger winds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1033 AM CST SAT DEC 28 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Central and Southern Mississippi Much of Louisiana Southeast Arkansas Southwestern Alabama East Texas * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Isolated large hail * SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will shift eastward from parts of north and central Texas early, across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1033 AM CST SAT DEC 28 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Central and Southern Mississippi Much of Louisiana Southeast Arkansas Southwestern Alabama East Texas * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Isolated large hail * SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will shift eastward from parts of north and central Texas early, across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1033 AM CST SAT DEC 28 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Central and Southern Mississippi Much of Louisiana Southeast Arkansas Southwestern Alabama East Texas * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Isolated large hail * SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will shift eastward from parts of north and central Texas early, across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1033 AM CST SAT DEC 28 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Central and Southern Mississippi Much of Louisiana Southeast Arkansas Southwestern Alabama East Texas * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Isolated large hail * SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will shift eastward from parts of north and central Texas early, across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1033 AM CST SAT DEC 28 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Central and Southern Mississippi Much of Louisiana Southeast Arkansas Southwestern Alabama East Texas * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Isolated large hail * SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will shift eastward from parts of north and central Texas early, across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more

Public Severe Weather Outlook
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1033 AM CST SAT DEC 28 2024 ...Severe thunderstorms expected over parts of the lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon and tonight... * LOCATIONS... Central and Southern Mississippi Much of Louisiana Southeast Arkansas Southwestern Alabama East Texas * HAZARDS... Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force Several tornadoes, a few intense Isolated large hail * SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will shift eastward from parts of north and central Texas early, across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight. Preparedness actions... Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A watch means that conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms over the next several hours. If a severe thunderstorm warning is issued for your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will shift eastward from parts of north and central Texas early, across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...East TX to AL/GA... A powerful mid-level shortwave trough and associated 80-90 knot jet max will rotate quickly eastward across TX today and become negatively-tilted as it tracks into the lower MS Valley this evening. Ample low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s) is in place ahead of this system across east TX, much of LA, and central/southern MS. Morning convection is slowly weakening across the warm sector, and low-clouds will continue to erode. This will help to develop a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. This will set the stage for a significant severe weather event through the evening as supercells and bowing structures form over east TX and race eastward across LA into MS. The co-location of the mid-level jet, strengthening winds in the low-levels, surface cyclogenesis, and ample moisture provide a synoptically-evident setup for all severe hazards through the evening. The corridor of greatest concern will be late afternoon through the evening from central LA into central MS. Considered an upgrade to HIGH for this area, but will maintain the ongoing MDT after consultation with local WFOs. Strong and long-tracked tornadoes and widespread damaging winds are possible in this region, with the primary uncertainty regarding storm-mode and linear forcing mechanisms. Activity will spread across AL overnight, where slightly less low-level moisture will somewhat decrease the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an active squall line with damaging wind potential and embedded rotating storms/tornado threat will likely persist. ..Hart/Lyons.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will shift eastward from parts of north and central Texas early, across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...East TX to AL/GA... A powerful mid-level shortwave trough and associated 80-90 knot jet max will rotate quickly eastward across TX today and become negatively-tilted as it tracks into the lower MS Valley this evening. Ample low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s) is in place ahead of this system across east TX, much of LA, and central/southern MS. Morning convection is slowly weakening across the warm sector, and low-clouds will continue to erode. This will help to develop a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. This will set the stage for a significant severe weather event through the evening as supercells and bowing structures form over east TX and race eastward across LA into MS. The co-location of the mid-level jet, strengthening winds in the low-levels, surface cyclogenesis, and ample moisture provide a synoptically-evident setup for all severe hazards through the evening. The corridor of greatest concern will be late afternoon through the evening from central LA into central MS. Considered an upgrade to HIGH for this area, but will maintain the ongoing MDT after consultation with local WFOs. Strong and long-tracked tornadoes and widespread damaging winds are possible in this region, with the primary uncertainty regarding storm-mode and linear forcing mechanisms. Activity will spread across AL overnight, where slightly less low-level moisture will somewhat decrease the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an active squall line with damaging wind potential and embedded rotating storms/tornado threat will likely persist. ..Hart/Lyons.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will shift eastward from parts of north and central Texas early, across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...East TX to AL/GA... A powerful mid-level shortwave trough and associated 80-90 knot jet max will rotate quickly eastward across TX today and become negatively-tilted as it tracks into the lower MS Valley this evening. Ample low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s) is in place ahead of this system across east TX, much of LA, and central/southern MS. Morning convection is slowly weakening across the warm sector, and low-clouds will continue to erode. This will help to develop a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. This will set the stage for a significant severe weather event through the evening as supercells and bowing structures form over east TX and race eastward across LA into MS. The co-location of the mid-level jet, strengthening winds in the low-levels, surface cyclogenesis, and ample moisture provide a synoptically-evident setup for all severe hazards through the evening. The corridor of greatest concern will be late afternoon through the evening from central LA into central MS. Considered an upgrade to HIGH for this area, but will maintain the ongoing MDT after consultation with local WFOs. Strong and long-tracked tornadoes and widespread damaging winds are possible in this region, with the primary uncertainty regarding storm-mode and linear forcing mechanisms. Activity will spread across AL overnight, where slightly less low-level moisture will somewhat decrease the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an active squall line with damaging wind potential and embedded rotating storms/tornado threat will likely persist. ..Hart/Lyons.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will shift eastward from parts of north and central Texas early, across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...East TX to AL/GA... A powerful mid-level shortwave trough and associated 80-90 knot jet max will rotate quickly eastward across TX today and become negatively-tilted as it tracks into the lower MS Valley this evening. Ample low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s) is in place ahead of this system across east TX, much of LA, and central/southern MS. Morning convection is slowly weakening across the warm sector, and low-clouds will continue to erode. This will help to develop a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. This will set the stage for a significant severe weather event through the evening as supercells and bowing structures form over east TX and race eastward across LA into MS. The co-location of the mid-level jet, strengthening winds in the low-levels, surface cyclogenesis, and ample moisture provide a synoptically-evident setup for all severe hazards through the evening. The corridor of greatest concern will be late afternoon through the evening from central LA into central MS. Considered an upgrade to HIGH for this area, but will maintain the ongoing MDT after consultation with local WFOs. Strong and long-tracked tornadoes and widespread damaging winds are possible in this region, with the primary uncertainty regarding storm-mode and linear forcing mechanisms. Activity will spread across AL overnight, where slightly less low-level moisture will somewhat decrease the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an active squall line with damaging wind potential and embedded rotating storms/tornado threat will likely persist. ..Hart/Lyons.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will shift eastward from parts of north and central Texas early, across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...East TX to AL/GA... A powerful mid-level shortwave trough and associated 80-90 knot jet max will rotate quickly eastward across TX today and become negatively-tilted as it tracks into the lower MS Valley this evening. Ample low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s) is in place ahead of this system across east TX, much of LA, and central/southern MS. Morning convection is slowly weakening across the warm sector, and low-clouds will continue to erode. This will help to develop a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. This will set the stage for a significant severe weather event through the evening as supercells and bowing structures form over east TX and race eastward across LA into MS. The co-location of the mid-level jet, strengthening winds in the low-levels, surface cyclogenesis, and ample moisture provide a synoptically-evident setup for all severe hazards through the evening. The corridor of greatest concern will be late afternoon through the evening from central LA into central MS. Considered an upgrade to HIGH for this area, but will maintain the ongoing MDT after consultation with local WFOs. Strong and long-tracked tornadoes and widespread damaging winds are possible in this region, with the primary uncertainty regarding storm-mode and linear forcing mechanisms. Activity will spread across AL overnight, where slightly less low-level moisture will somewhat decrease the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an active squall line with damaging wind potential and embedded rotating storms/tornado threat will likely persist. ..Hart/Lyons.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will shift eastward from parts of north and central Texas early, across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...East TX to AL/GA... A powerful mid-level shortwave trough and associated 80-90 knot jet max will rotate quickly eastward across TX today and become negatively-tilted as it tracks into the lower MS Valley this evening. Ample low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s) is in place ahead of this system across east TX, much of LA, and central/southern MS. Morning convection is slowly weakening across the warm sector, and low-clouds will continue to erode. This will help to develop a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. This will set the stage for a significant severe weather event through the evening as supercells and bowing structures form over east TX and race eastward across LA into MS. The co-location of the mid-level jet, strengthening winds in the low-levels, surface cyclogenesis, and ample moisture provide a synoptically-evident setup for all severe hazards through the evening. The corridor of greatest concern will be late afternoon through the evening from central LA into central MS. Considered an upgrade to HIGH for this area, but will maintain the ongoing MDT after consultation with local WFOs. Strong and long-tracked tornadoes and widespread damaging winds are possible in this region, with the primary uncertainty regarding storm-mode and linear forcing mechanisms. Activity will spread across AL overnight, where slightly less low-level moisture will somewhat decrease the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an active squall line with damaging wind potential and embedded rotating storms/tornado threat will likely persist. ..Hart/Lyons.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will shift eastward from parts of north and central Texas early, across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...East TX to AL/GA... A powerful mid-level shortwave trough and associated 80-90 knot jet max will rotate quickly eastward across TX today and become negatively-tilted as it tracks into the lower MS Valley this evening. Ample low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s) is in place ahead of this system across east TX, much of LA, and central/southern MS. Morning convection is slowly weakening across the warm sector, and low-clouds will continue to erode. This will help to develop a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. This will set the stage for a significant severe weather event through the evening as supercells and bowing structures form over east TX and race eastward across LA into MS. The co-location of the mid-level jet, strengthening winds in the low-levels, surface cyclogenesis, and ample moisture provide a synoptically-evident setup for all severe hazards through the evening. The corridor of greatest concern will be late afternoon through the evening from central LA into central MS. Considered an upgrade to HIGH for this area, but will maintain the ongoing MDT after consultation with local WFOs. Strong and long-tracked tornadoes and widespread damaging winds are possible in this region, with the primary uncertainty regarding storm-mode and linear forcing mechanisms. Activity will spread across AL overnight, where slightly less low-level moisture will somewhat decrease the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an active squall line with damaging wind potential and embedded rotating storms/tornado threat will likely persist. ..Hart/Lyons.. 12/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Sat Dec 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...AND SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA.... ...SUMMARY... Tornadoes (some strong with at least EF2 damage possible), severe gusts and hail are expected today into tonight. The threat area will shift eastward from parts of north and central Texas early, across east Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley today, then over the Tennessee Valley, parts of Georgia, and the central Gulf Coast tonight. ...East TX to AL/GA... A powerful mid-level shortwave trough and associated 80-90 knot jet max will rotate quickly eastward across TX today and become negatively-tilted as it tracks into the lower MS Valley this evening. Ample low-level moisture (dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s) is in place ahead of this system across east TX, much of LA, and central/southern MS. Morning convection is slowly weakening across the warm sector, and low-clouds will continue to erode. This will help to develop a corridor of moderate instability with MLCAPE values of 1500-2000 J/kg. This will set the stage for a significant severe weather event through the evening as supercells and bowing structures form over east TX and race eastward across LA into MS. The co-location of the mid-level jet, strengthening winds in the low-levels, surface cyclogenesis, and ample moisture provide a synoptically-evident setup for all severe hazards through the evening. The corridor of greatest concern will be late afternoon through the evening from central LA into central MS. Considered an upgrade to HIGH for this area, but will maintain the ongoing MDT after consultation with local WFOs. Strong and long-tracked tornadoes and widespread damaging winds are possible in this region, with the primary uncertainty regarding storm-mode and linear forcing mechanisms. Activity will spread across AL overnight, where slightly less low-level moisture will somewhat decrease the overall severe threat. Nevertheless, an active squall line with damaging wind potential and embedded rotating storms/tornado threat will likely persist. ..Hart/Lyons.. 12/28/2024 Read more