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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z The previous forecast remains on track. Consideration was made for introducing a risk area to portions of central to northeast NE and far northwest IA for this afternoon. Morning guidance continues to show a strong signal for sustained 20-25 mph winds this afternoon with the potential for gusts up to 30-35 mph. However, most 12 UTC solutions, including several HREF members, are showing a pronounced 5-10 F warm bias across the central Plains based on 15 UTC observations. Solutions that have captured recent temperature/dewpoint trends well suggest RH will only fall to the 25-30% range by late afternoon. Consequently, confidence in sustained elevated conditions remains very limited and precludes risk highlights. Further south across the southern High Plains, elevated wind/RH criteria will likely be met as winds increase on either side of a surface trough. However, fuel dryness does not appear sufficient to support a robust fire concern based on recent fuel guidance. ..Moore.. 10/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0217 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will traverse the western CONUS today. As this occurs, high pressure will also build into the northern Plains. Some breezy conditions are probable this afternoon in the wake of a cold front across the central Plains. However, relative humidities will not be that low (25-30 percent), and the strongest winds will likely be displaced south of the driest fuels. Therefore, no Elevated area is warranted today. However, warm and dry conditions will prevail across most of the western CONUS and result in continued drying of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z The previous forecast remains on track. Consideration was made for introducing a risk area to portions of central to northeast NE and far northwest IA for this afternoon. Morning guidance continues to show a strong signal for sustained 20-25 mph winds this afternoon with the potential for gusts up to 30-35 mph. However, most 12 UTC solutions, including several HREF members, are showing a pronounced 5-10 F warm bias across the central Plains based on 15 UTC observations. Solutions that have captured recent temperature/dewpoint trends well suggest RH will only fall to the 25-30% range by late afternoon. Consequently, confidence in sustained elevated conditions remains very limited and precludes risk highlights. Further south across the southern High Plains, elevated wind/RH criteria will likely be met as winds increase on either side of a surface trough. However, fuel dryness does not appear sufficient to support a robust fire concern based on recent fuel guidance. ..Moore.. 10/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0217 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will traverse the western CONUS today. As this occurs, high pressure will also build into the northern Plains. Some breezy conditions are probable this afternoon in the wake of a cold front across the central Plains. However, relative humidities will not be that low (25-30 percent), and the strongest winds will likely be displaced south of the driest fuels. Therefore, no Elevated area is warranted today. However, warm and dry conditions will prevail across most of the western CONUS and result in continued drying of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z The previous forecast remains on track. Consideration was made for introducing a risk area to portions of central to northeast NE and far northwest IA for this afternoon. Morning guidance continues to show a strong signal for sustained 20-25 mph winds this afternoon with the potential for gusts up to 30-35 mph. However, most 12 UTC solutions, including several HREF members, are showing a pronounced 5-10 F warm bias across the central Plains based on 15 UTC observations. Solutions that have captured recent temperature/dewpoint trends well suggest RH will only fall to the 25-30% range by late afternoon. Consequently, confidence in sustained elevated conditions remains very limited and precludes risk highlights. Further south across the southern High Plains, elevated wind/RH criteria will likely be met as winds increase on either side of a surface trough. However, fuel dryness does not appear sufficient to support a robust fire concern based on recent fuel guidance. ..Moore.. 10/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0217 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will traverse the western CONUS today. As this occurs, high pressure will also build into the northern Plains. Some breezy conditions are probable this afternoon in the wake of a cold front across the central Plains. However, relative humidities will not be that low (25-30 percent), and the strongest winds will likely be displaced south of the driest fuels. Therefore, no Elevated area is warranted today. However, warm and dry conditions will prevail across most of the western CONUS and result in continued drying of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z The previous forecast remains on track. Consideration was made for introducing a risk area to portions of central to northeast NE and far northwest IA for this afternoon. Morning guidance continues to show a strong signal for sustained 20-25 mph winds this afternoon with the potential for gusts up to 30-35 mph. However, most 12 UTC solutions, including several HREF members, are showing a pronounced 5-10 F warm bias across the central Plains based on 15 UTC observations. Solutions that have captured recent temperature/dewpoint trends well suggest RH will only fall to the 25-30% range by late afternoon. Consequently, confidence in sustained elevated conditions remains very limited and precludes risk highlights. Further south across the southern High Plains, elevated wind/RH criteria will likely be met as winds increase on either side of a surface trough. However, fuel dryness does not appear sufficient to support a robust fire concern based on recent fuel guidance. ..Moore.. 10/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0217 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will traverse the western CONUS today. As this occurs, high pressure will also build into the northern Plains. Some breezy conditions are probable this afternoon in the wake of a cold front across the central Plains. However, relative humidities will not be that low (25-30 percent), and the strongest winds will likely be displaced south of the driest fuels. Therefore, no Elevated area is warranted today. However, warm and dry conditions will prevail across most of the western CONUS and result in continued drying of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z The previous forecast remains on track. Consideration was made for introducing a risk area to portions of central to northeast NE and far northwest IA for this afternoon. Morning guidance continues to show a strong signal for sustained 20-25 mph winds this afternoon with the potential for gusts up to 30-35 mph. However, most 12 UTC solutions, including several HREF members, are showing a pronounced 5-10 F warm bias across the central Plains based on 15 UTC observations. Solutions that have captured recent temperature/dewpoint trends well suggest RH will only fall to the 25-30% range by late afternoon. Consequently, confidence in sustained elevated conditions remains very limited and precludes risk highlights. Further south across the southern High Plains, elevated wind/RH criteria will likely be met as winds increase on either side of a surface trough. However, fuel dryness does not appear sufficient to support a robust fire concern based on recent fuel guidance. ..Moore.. 10/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0217 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will traverse the western CONUS today. As this occurs, high pressure will also build into the northern Plains. Some breezy conditions are probable this afternoon in the wake of a cold front across the central Plains. However, relative humidities will not be that low (25-30 percent), and the strongest winds will likely be displaced south of the driest fuels. Therefore, no Elevated area is warranted today. However, warm and dry conditions will prevail across most of the western CONUS and result in continued drying of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 248 FOPZ11 KNHC 031435 PWSEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ANGEL 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 95W 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 909 WTPZ41 KNHC 031435 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Eleven-E Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 900 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 The depression continues to produce a large, but poorly organized, area of convection, with the low-level center most likely in the northern portion of the convective mass. Satellite intensity estimates from SAB and TAFB remain 30 kt, and this is the initial intensity for this advisory. The center position has a larger than normal amount of uncertainty, and the initial motion is also a bit uncertain at 045/5. The track forecast guidance suggests a generally northward motion should occur during the next 24-36 h, and the new track forecast follows this in bringing the center to the coast of Mexico in 12-24 hours and inland over the Isthmus of Tehuantepec after that. It is possible that some adjustments to the forecast may occur if data that better shows the center position becomes available. While the environment does not favor significant strengthening before landfall, any intensification at all would bring the system to tropical storm strength, and the new intensity forecast continues to show this occurring. After landfall, the system should quickly weaken, with the remnants eventually becoming absorbed into the large area of disturbed weather that is forming over the western Gulf of Mexico. While the forecast shows the system lasting through 36 h, it could dissipate at any time as it crosses the mountains of Mexico. Regardless of whether intensification occurs, the primary threat remains heavy rainfall that will continue over portions of southern Mexico for the next day or two. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm before it reaches the coast of southern Mexico. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for portions of the southern coast of Mexico. 2. Tropical Depression Eleven-E will likely bring heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico this week. Flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain, are possible, especially across portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/1500Z 15.2N 95.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 04/0000Z 15.9N 95.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 04/1200Z 17.1N 95.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 05/0000Z 18.2N 95.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL/INLAND 48H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 14:40:13 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 15:34:50 GMT

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 031435 TCMEP1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 95.6W AT 03/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 95.6W AT 03/1500Z AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 95.7W FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 15.9N 95.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.1N 95.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.2N 95.5W...POST-TROPICAL/INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 95.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPEP1...AT 03/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 900 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 031435 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 900 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 ...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...CONTINUED HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 900 AM CST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.2N 95.6W ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM ESE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 AM CST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 15.2 North, longitude 95.6 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a northeastward to northward motion is forecast through Friday. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move toward southern Mexico and make landfall within the warning area tonight or early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible, and the system is forecast to be a tropical storm when it reaches the coast of Mexico. Weakening is expected after landfall, and the system is forecast to dissipate on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area beginning later today and continuing into early Friday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 8 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding from storm surge is possible in areas of onshore flow. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 PM CST. Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE COAST OF MEXICO... ...CONTINUED HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 9:00 AM CST Thu Oct 3 the center of Eleven-E was located near 15.2, -95.6 with movement NE at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 ZCZC MIAPWSEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112024 1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2024 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ANGEL 34 3 X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 95W 34 6 X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a nearly zonal northern-stream pattern will prevail either side of the Canadian border, from the Pacific Coast across the Great Lakes to New England. The main feature perturbing that belt for this period will be a strongly positively tilted trough, currently over south-central parts of SK/MB northwestward to north-central AB. This trough will amplify and pivot southeastward/ eastward across northern ON, northern MN and Lake Superior into tonight. By 12Z, the trailing part of this feature should be moving across the western U.P of MI, northern WI and central MN. A weak shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over eastern OR and southwestern ID -- may reach the Quad Cities area of IA/IL by 12Z tomorrow and phase with the larger trough. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a frontal wave low over northwestern KS, with warm front eastward to west-central/ northwestern MO, and cold front across east-central CO. The low should migrate eastward through the period, reaching north-central/ northwestern MO by 12Z, with cold front trailing across southern KS, western OK and the TX South Plains, and warm front extending to east-central MO and southern IL. ...Mid/upper Mississippi Valley... Capping and meager boundary-layer moisture will inhibit convective potential today along/ahead of the front and low. However, an area of isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms is possible overnight northeast of the low, supported by large-scale DCVA/lift ahead of the ejecting shortwave trough, and warm advection/ isentropic lift to LFC of increasingly moist parcels above the surface. Activity should be rooted in the 700-800-mb layer, amidst MUCAPE roughly 500-800 J/kg, and around 35-40 kt effective-shear magnitudes. This may support small hail, especially early in the convective cycle when cells are still at least somewhat discrete. Modes should become messier and precip more expansive fairly quickly, as inflow-layer moisture and MUCAPE only slowly increase in the immediate upstream airmass to the southwest. The overall severe threat appears too limited and conditional for an outlook at this time. ..Edwards/Dean.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a nearly zonal northern-stream pattern will prevail either side of the Canadian border, from the Pacific Coast across the Great Lakes to New England. The main feature perturbing that belt for this period will be a strongly positively tilted trough, currently over south-central parts of SK/MB northwestward to north-central AB. This trough will amplify and pivot southeastward/ eastward across northern ON, northern MN and Lake Superior into tonight. By 12Z, the trailing part of this feature should be moving across the western U.P of MI, northern WI and central MN. A weak shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over eastern OR and southwestern ID -- may reach the Quad Cities area of IA/IL by 12Z tomorrow and phase with the larger trough. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a frontal wave low over northwestern KS, with warm front eastward to west-central/ northwestern MO, and cold front across east-central CO. The low should migrate eastward through the period, reaching north-central/ northwestern MO by 12Z, with cold front trailing across southern KS, western OK and the TX South Plains, and warm front extending to east-central MO and southern IL. ...Mid/upper Mississippi Valley... Capping and meager boundary-layer moisture will inhibit convective potential today along/ahead of the front and low. However, an area of isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms is possible overnight northeast of the low, supported by large-scale DCVA/lift ahead of the ejecting shortwave trough, and warm advection/ isentropic lift to LFC of increasingly moist parcels above the surface. Activity should be rooted in the 700-800-mb layer, amidst MUCAPE roughly 500-800 J/kg, and around 35-40 kt effective-shear magnitudes. This may support small hail, especially early in the convective cycle when cells are still at least somewhat discrete. Modes should become messier and precip more expansive fairly quickly, as inflow-layer moisture and MUCAPE only slowly increase in the immediate upstream airmass to the southwest. The overall severe threat appears too limited and conditional for an outlook at this time. ..Edwards/Dean.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a nearly zonal northern-stream pattern will prevail either side of the Canadian border, from the Pacific Coast across the Great Lakes to New England. The main feature perturbing that belt for this period will be a strongly positively tilted trough, currently over south-central parts of SK/MB northwestward to north-central AB. This trough will amplify and pivot southeastward/ eastward across northern ON, northern MN and Lake Superior into tonight. By 12Z, the trailing part of this feature should be moving across the western U.P of MI, northern WI and central MN. A weak shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over eastern OR and southwestern ID -- may reach the Quad Cities area of IA/IL by 12Z tomorrow and phase with the larger trough. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a frontal wave low over northwestern KS, with warm front eastward to west-central/ northwestern MO, and cold front across east-central CO. The low should migrate eastward through the period, reaching north-central/ northwestern MO by 12Z, with cold front trailing across southern KS, western OK and the TX South Plains, and warm front extending to east-central MO and southern IL. ...Mid/upper Mississippi Valley... Capping and meager boundary-layer moisture will inhibit convective potential today along/ahead of the front and low. However, an area of isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms is possible overnight northeast of the low, supported by large-scale DCVA/lift ahead of the ejecting shortwave trough, and warm advection/ isentropic lift to LFC of increasingly moist parcels above the surface. Activity should be rooted in the 700-800-mb layer, amidst MUCAPE roughly 500-800 J/kg, and around 35-40 kt effective-shear magnitudes. This may support small hail, especially early in the convective cycle when cells are still at least somewhat discrete. Modes should become messier and precip more expansive fairly quickly, as inflow-layer moisture and MUCAPE only slowly increase in the immediate upstream airmass to the southwest. The overall severe threat appears too limited and conditional for an outlook at this time. ..Edwards/Dean.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a nearly zonal northern-stream pattern will prevail either side of the Canadian border, from the Pacific Coast across the Great Lakes to New England. The main feature perturbing that belt for this period will be a strongly positively tilted trough, currently over south-central parts of SK/MB northwestward to north-central AB. This trough will amplify and pivot southeastward/ eastward across northern ON, northern MN and Lake Superior into tonight. By 12Z, the trailing part of this feature should be moving across the western U.P of MI, northern WI and central MN. A weak shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over eastern OR and southwestern ID -- may reach the Quad Cities area of IA/IL by 12Z tomorrow and phase with the larger trough. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a frontal wave low over northwestern KS, with warm front eastward to west-central/ northwestern MO, and cold front across east-central CO. The low should migrate eastward through the period, reaching north-central/ northwestern MO by 12Z, with cold front trailing across southern KS, western OK and the TX South Plains, and warm front extending to east-central MO and southern IL. ...Mid/upper Mississippi Valley... Capping and meager boundary-layer moisture will inhibit convective potential today along/ahead of the front and low. However, an area of isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms is possible overnight northeast of the low, supported by large-scale DCVA/lift ahead of the ejecting shortwave trough, and warm advection/ isentropic lift to LFC of increasingly moist parcels above the surface. Activity should be rooted in the 700-800-mb layer, amidst MUCAPE roughly 500-800 J/kg, and around 35-40 kt effective-shear magnitudes. This may support small hail, especially early in the convective cycle when cells are still at least somewhat discrete. Modes should become messier and precip more expansive fairly quickly, as inflow-layer moisture and MUCAPE only slowly increase in the immediate upstream airmass to the southwest. The overall severe threat appears too limited and conditional for an outlook at this time. ..Edwards/Dean.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0736 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 031300Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... In mid/upper levels, a nearly zonal northern-stream pattern will prevail either side of the Canadian border, from the Pacific Coast across the Great Lakes to New England. The main feature perturbing that belt for this period will be a strongly positively tilted trough, currently over south-central parts of SK/MB northwestward to north-central AB. This trough will amplify and pivot southeastward/ eastward across northern ON, northern MN and Lake Superior into tonight. By 12Z, the trailing part of this feature should be moving across the western U.P of MI, northern WI and central MN. A weak shortwave trough -- evident in moisture-channel imagery over eastern OR and southwestern ID -- may reach the Quad Cities area of IA/IL by 12Z tomorrow and phase with the larger trough. At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a frontal wave low over northwestern KS, with warm front eastward to west-central/ northwestern MO, and cold front across east-central CO. The low should migrate eastward through the period, reaching north-central/ northwestern MO by 12Z, with cold front trailing across southern KS, western OK and the TX South Plains, and warm front extending to east-central MO and southern IL. ...Mid/upper Mississippi Valley... Capping and meager boundary-layer moisture will inhibit convective potential today along/ahead of the front and low. However, an area of isolated to scattered elevated thunderstorms is possible overnight northeast of the low, supported by large-scale DCVA/lift ahead of the ejecting shortwave trough, and warm advection/ isentropic lift to LFC of increasingly moist parcels above the surface. Activity should be rooted in the 700-800-mb layer, amidst MUCAPE roughly 500-800 J/kg, and around 35-40 kt effective-shear magnitudes. This may support small hail, especially early in the convective cycle when cells are still at least somewhat discrete. Modes should become messier and precip more expansive fairly quickly, as inflow-layer moisture and MUCAPE only slowly increase in the immediate upstream airmass to the southwest. The overall severe threat appears too limited and conditional for an outlook at this time. ..Edwards/Dean.. 10/03/2024 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 11:34:00 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 09:34:45 GMT

Issued at 600 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 031132 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Intermediate Advisory Number 7A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 600 AM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 ...CONTINUED HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... SUMMARY OF 600 AM CST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.0N 95.7W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM SSE OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 4 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Lagunas de Chacahua to Boca de Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 600 AM CST (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 15.0 North, longitude 95.7 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 4 mph (6 km/h), and a slightly faster northeastward to northward motion is forecast through Friday. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move toward southern Mexico and make landfall within the warning area tonight or early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible, and the system is forecast to be a tropical storm when it reaches the coast of Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area beginning later today and continuing into early Friday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 12 inches, across portions of western Guatemala and the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz, Tabasco, and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...CONTINUED HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... As of 6:00 AM CST Thu Oct 3 the center of Eleven-E was located near 15.0, -95.7 with movement NE at 4 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.