Aggregator

Issued at 1200 PM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 031732 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Eleven-E Intermediate Advisory Number 8A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112024 1200 PM CST Thu Oct 03 2024 ...SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THE DEPRESSION IS LESS ORGANIZED... ...CONTINUED HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 1200 PM CST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.6N 95.1W ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM E OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning west of Puerto Angel. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Angel to Boca de Pijijiapan A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. Interests elsewhere in southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1200 PM CST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven-E was located near latitude 15.6 North, longitude 95.1 West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h), and a northeastward to northward motion is forecast through Friday. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move toward southern Mexico and make landfall within the warning area tonight or early Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is possible, and the system could be a tropical storm when it reaches the coast of Mexico. Weakening is expected after landfall, and the system is forecast to dissipate on Saturday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Depression Eleven-E can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within portions of the warning area beginning later today and continuing into early Friday. RAINFALL: Tropical Depression Eleven-E is expected to produce an additional 3 to 6 inches of rainfall, with localized amounts up to 8 inches, across portions of the Mexican states of Chiapas, Oaxaca, Veracruz Tabasco and coastal Guerrero. This rainfall may lead to areas of flooding and mudslides. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Tropical Depression Eleven-E, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?rainqpf STORM SURGE: Minor coastal flooding from storm surge is possible in areas of onshore flow. SURF: Swells generated by the depression are affecting portions of the coast of southern and southeastern Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 PM CST. $$ Forecaster Beven

...SATELLITE DATA INDICATES THE DEPRESSION IS LESS ORGANIZED... ...CONTINUED HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IN PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO... As of 12:00 PM CST Thu Oct 3 the center of Eleven-E was located near 15.6, -95.1 with movement NE at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Discussion... A fast/progressive upper flow field will persist across the northern third of the U.S. Friday, while ridging generally prevails over the southern two-thirds of the country. Once exception will be a weak upper disturbance shifting out of the northern Gulf of Mexico, which will partially phase with a northern-stream trough crossing the Great Lakes region. By the end of the period, this trough will reach New England and the Atlantic Coast. At the surface, a cold front will cross the northern Intermountain region and eventually emerge into the northern Plains, ahead of a trough embedded in the fast northern-stream flow field aloft. Otherwise, a rather nondescript surface pattern will prevail elsewhere. At low levels, tropical moisture will be confined to the Gulf and Southeast Coasts. Lesser moisture -- dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s -- will extend northward across the Tennessee, Ohio, Mid-Mississippi, and Mid Missouri Valleys, but weak lapse rates aloft across these areas will yield only modest destabilization. Greatest thunderstorm potential will extend from the Texas Coastal Plain eastward across the Southeast -- aided by ascent associated with the aforementioned southeastern U.S. upper disturbance phasing with a northern-stream trough, and other vorticity maxima extending westward across the Gulf and into northern Mexico. Elevated showers and a few thunderstorms will also be possible early in the period over the northeastern Missouri/southeastern Iowa/northern Illinois area. In all of these locales, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Discussion... A fast/progressive upper flow field will persist across the northern third of the U.S. Friday, while ridging generally prevails over the southern two-thirds of the country. Once exception will be a weak upper disturbance shifting out of the northern Gulf of Mexico, which will partially phase with a northern-stream trough crossing the Great Lakes region. By the end of the period, this trough will reach New England and the Atlantic Coast. At the surface, a cold front will cross the northern Intermountain region and eventually emerge into the northern Plains, ahead of a trough embedded in the fast northern-stream flow field aloft. Otherwise, a rather nondescript surface pattern will prevail elsewhere. At low levels, tropical moisture will be confined to the Gulf and Southeast Coasts. Lesser moisture -- dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s -- will extend northward across the Tennessee, Ohio, Mid-Mississippi, and Mid Missouri Valleys, but weak lapse rates aloft across these areas will yield only modest destabilization. Greatest thunderstorm potential will extend from the Texas Coastal Plain eastward across the Southeast -- aided by ascent associated with the aforementioned southeastern U.S. upper disturbance phasing with a northern-stream trough, and other vorticity maxima extending westward across the Gulf and into northern Mexico. Elevated showers and a few thunderstorms will also be possible early in the period over the northeastern Missouri/southeastern Iowa/northern Illinois area. In all of these locales, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Discussion... A fast/progressive upper flow field will persist across the northern third of the U.S. Friday, while ridging generally prevails over the southern two-thirds of the country. Once exception will be a weak upper disturbance shifting out of the northern Gulf of Mexico, which will partially phase with a northern-stream trough crossing the Great Lakes region. By the end of the period, this trough will reach New England and the Atlantic Coast. At the surface, a cold front will cross the northern Intermountain region and eventually emerge into the northern Plains, ahead of a trough embedded in the fast northern-stream flow field aloft. Otherwise, a rather nondescript surface pattern will prevail elsewhere. At low levels, tropical moisture will be confined to the Gulf and Southeast Coasts. Lesser moisture -- dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s -- will extend northward across the Tennessee, Ohio, Mid-Mississippi, and Mid Missouri Valleys, but weak lapse rates aloft across these areas will yield only modest destabilization. Greatest thunderstorm potential will extend from the Texas Coastal Plain eastward across the Southeast -- aided by ascent associated with the aforementioned southeastern U.S. upper disturbance phasing with a northern-stream trough, and other vorticity maxima extending westward across the Gulf and into northern Mexico. Elevated showers and a few thunderstorms will also be possible early in the period over the northeastern Missouri/southeastern Iowa/northern Illinois area. In all of these locales, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Discussion... A fast/progressive upper flow field will persist across the northern third of the U.S. Friday, while ridging generally prevails over the southern two-thirds of the country. Once exception will be a weak upper disturbance shifting out of the northern Gulf of Mexico, which will partially phase with a northern-stream trough crossing the Great Lakes region. By the end of the period, this trough will reach New England and the Atlantic Coast. At the surface, a cold front will cross the northern Intermountain region and eventually emerge into the northern Plains, ahead of a trough embedded in the fast northern-stream flow field aloft. Otherwise, a rather nondescript surface pattern will prevail elsewhere. At low levels, tropical moisture will be confined to the Gulf and Southeast Coasts. Lesser moisture -- dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s -- will extend northward across the Tennessee, Ohio, Mid-Mississippi, and Mid Missouri Valleys, but weak lapse rates aloft across these areas will yield only modest destabilization. Greatest thunderstorm potential will extend from the Texas Coastal Plain eastward across the Southeast -- aided by ascent associated with the aforementioned southeastern U.S. upper disturbance phasing with a northern-stream trough, and other vorticity maxima extending westward across the Gulf and into northern Mexico. Elevated showers and a few thunderstorms will also be possible early in the period over the northeastern Missouri/southeastern Iowa/northern Illinois area. In all of these locales, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Discussion... A fast/progressive upper flow field will persist across the northern third of the U.S. Friday, while ridging generally prevails over the southern two-thirds of the country. Once exception will be a weak upper disturbance shifting out of the northern Gulf of Mexico, which will partially phase with a northern-stream trough crossing the Great Lakes region. By the end of the period, this trough will reach New England and the Atlantic Coast. At the surface, a cold front will cross the northern Intermountain region and eventually emerge into the northern Plains, ahead of a trough embedded in the fast northern-stream flow field aloft. Otherwise, a rather nondescript surface pattern will prevail elsewhere. At low levels, tropical moisture will be confined to the Gulf and Southeast Coasts. Lesser moisture -- dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s -- will extend northward across the Tennessee, Ohio, Mid-Mississippi, and Mid Missouri Valleys, but weak lapse rates aloft across these areas will yield only modest destabilization. Greatest thunderstorm potential will extend from the Texas Coastal Plain eastward across the Southeast -- aided by ascent associated with the aforementioned southeastern U.S. upper disturbance phasing with a northern-stream trough, and other vorticity maxima extending westward across the Gulf and into northern Mexico. Elevated showers and a few thunderstorms will also be possible early in the period over the northeastern Missouri/southeastern Iowa/northern Illinois area. In all of these locales, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Discussion... A fast/progressive upper flow field will persist across the northern third of the U.S. Friday, while ridging generally prevails over the southern two-thirds of the country. Once exception will be a weak upper disturbance shifting out of the northern Gulf of Mexico, which will partially phase with a northern-stream trough crossing the Great Lakes region. By the end of the period, this trough will reach New England and the Atlantic Coast. At the surface, a cold front will cross the northern Intermountain region and eventually emerge into the northern Plains, ahead of a trough embedded in the fast northern-stream flow field aloft. Otherwise, a rather nondescript surface pattern will prevail elsewhere. At low levels, tropical moisture will be confined to the Gulf and Southeast Coasts. Lesser moisture -- dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s -- will extend northward across the Tennessee, Ohio, Mid-Mississippi, and Mid Missouri Valleys, but weak lapse rates aloft across these areas will yield only modest destabilization. Greatest thunderstorm potential will extend from the Texas Coastal Plain eastward across the Southeast -- aided by ascent associated with the aforementioned southeastern U.S. upper disturbance phasing with a northern-stream trough, and other vorticity maxima extending westward across the Gulf and into northern Mexico. Elevated showers and a few thunderstorms will also be possible early in the period over the northeastern Missouri/southeastern Iowa/northern Illinois area. In all of these locales, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Discussion... A fast/progressive upper flow field will persist across the northern third of the U.S. Friday, while ridging generally prevails over the southern two-thirds of the country. Once exception will be a weak upper disturbance shifting out of the northern Gulf of Mexico, which will partially phase with a northern-stream trough crossing the Great Lakes region. By the end of the period, this trough will reach New England and the Atlantic Coast. At the surface, a cold front will cross the northern Intermountain region and eventually emerge into the northern Plains, ahead of a trough embedded in the fast northern-stream flow field aloft. Otherwise, a rather nondescript surface pattern will prevail elsewhere. At low levels, tropical moisture will be confined to the Gulf and Southeast Coasts. Lesser moisture -- dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s -- will extend northward across the Tennessee, Ohio, Mid-Mississippi, and Mid Missouri Valleys, but weak lapse rates aloft across these areas will yield only modest destabilization. Greatest thunderstorm potential will extend from the Texas Coastal Plain eastward across the Southeast -- aided by ascent associated with the aforementioned southeastern U.S. upper disturbance phasing with a northern-stream trough, and other vorticity maxima extending westward across the Gulf and into northern Mexico. Elevated showers and a few thunderstorms will also be possible early in the period over the northeastern Missouri/southeastern Iowa/northern Illinois area. In all of these locales, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Friday. ...Discussion... A fast/progressive upper flow field will persist across the northern third of the U.S. Friday, while ridging generally prevails over the southern two-thirds of the country. Once exception will be a weak upper disturbance shifting out of the northern Gulf of Mexico, which will partially phase with a northern-stream trough crossing the Great Lakes region. By the end of the period, this trough will reach New England and the Atlantic Coast. At the surface, a cold front will cross the northern Intermountain region and eventually emerge into the northern Plains, ahead of a trough embedded in the fast northern-stream flow field aloft. Otherwise, a rather nondescript surface pattern will prevail elsewhere. At low levels, tropical moisture will be confined to the Gulf and Southeast Coasts. Lesser moisture -- dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s -- will extend northward across the Tennessee, Ohio, Mid-Mississippi, and Mid Missouri Valleys, but weak lapse rates aloft across these areas will yield only modest destabilization. Greatest thunderstorm potential will extend from the Texas Coastal Plain eastward across the Southeast -- aided by ascent associated with the aforementioned southeastern U.S. upper disturbance phasing with a northern-stream trough, and other vorticity maxima extending westward across the Gulf and into northern Mexico. Elevated showers and a few thunderstorms will also be possible early in the period over the northeastern Missouri/southeastern Iowa/northern Illinois area. In all of these locales, severe weather is not expected. ..Goss.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Morning surface observations depict a southwest/northeast-oriented quasi-stationary boundary extending from the central Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Within the base of a large-scale trough over the north-central CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough and related lift will overspread the boundary during the overnight/early morning hours. The associated low-level mass response will favor the east-northeastward movement of a weak frontal-wave low along the boundary -- promoting isolated to widely scattered elevated thunderstorms atop the frontal surface in the 06-12Z time frame (generally focused over eastern IA and northwest IL). Around 30-40 kt of effective shear could lead to a couple embedded cells capable of small to marginally severe hail initially, though the steeper midlevel lapse-rate plume and favorable instability should be displaced to the south of this activity -- generally limiting the severe threat. ..Weinman.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Morning surface observations depict a southwest/northeast-oriented quasi-stationary boundary extending from the central Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Within the base of a large-scale trough over the north-central CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough and related lift will overspread the boundary during the overnight/early morning hours. The associated low-level mass response will favor the east-northeastward movement of a weak frontal-wave low along the boundary -- promoting isolated to widely scattered elevated thunderstorms atop the frontal surface in the 06-12Z time frame (generally focused over eastern IA and northwest IL). Around 30-40 kt of effective shear could lead to a couple embedded cells capable of small to marginally severe hail initially, though the steeper midlevel lapse-rate plume and favorable instability should be displaced to the south of this activity -- generally limiting the severe threat. ..Weinman.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Morning surface observations depict a southwest/northeast-oriented quasi-stationary boundary extending from the central Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Within the base of a large-scale trough over the north-central CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough and related lift will overspread the boundary during the overnight/early morning hours. The associated low-level mass response will favor the east-northeastward movement of a weak frontal-wave low along the boundary -- promoting isolated to widely scattered elevated thunderstorms atop the frontal surface in the 06-12Z time frame (generally focused over eastern IA and northwest IL). Around 30-40 kt of effective shear could lead to a couple embedded cells capable of small to marginally severe hail initially, though the steeper midlevel lapse-rate plume and favorable instability should be displaced to the south of this activity -- generally limiting the severe threat. ..Weinman.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Morning surface observations depict a southwest/northeast-oriented quasi-stationary boundary extending from the central Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Within the base of a large-scale trough over the north-central CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough and related lift will overspread the boundary during the overnight/early morning hours. The associated low-level mass response will favor the east-northeastward movement of a weak frontal-wave low along the boundary -- promoting isolated to widely scattered elevated thunderstorms atop the frontal surface in the 06-12Z time frame (generally focused over eastern IA and northwest IL). Around 30-40 kt of effective shear could lead to a couple embedded cells capable of small to marginally severe hail initially, though the steeper midlevel lapse-rate plume and favorable instability should be displaced to the south of this activity -- generally limiting the severe threat. ..Weinman.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Morning surface observations depict a southwest/northeast-oriented quasi-stationary boundary extending from the central Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Within the base of a large-scale trough over the north-central CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough and related lift will overspread the boundary during the overnight/early morning hours. The associated low-level mass response will favor the east-northeastward movement of a weak frontal-wave low along the boundary -- promoting isolated to widely scattered elevated thunderstorms atop the frontal surface in the 06-12Z time frame (generally focused over eastern IA and northwest IL). Around 30-40 kt of effective shear could lead to a couple embedded cells capable of small to marginally severe hail initially, though the steeper midlevel lapse-rate plume and favorable instability should be displaced to the south of this activity -- generally limiting the severe threat. ..Weinman.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Morning surface observations depict a southwest/northeast-oriented quasi-stationary boundary extending from the central Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Within the base of a large-scale trough over the north-central CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough and related lift will overspread the boundary during the overnight/early morning hours. The associated low-level mass response will favor the east-northeastward movement of a weak frontal-wave low along the boundary -- promoting isolated to widely scattered elevated thunderstorms atop the frontal surface in the 06-12Z time frame (generally focused over eastern IA and northwest IL). Around 30-40 kt of effective shear could lead to a couple embedded cells capable of small to marginally severe hail initially, though the steeper midlevel lapse-rate plume and favorable instability should be displaced to the south of this activity -- generally limiting the severe threat. ..Weinman.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Morning surface observations depict a southwest/northeast-oriented quasi-stationary boundary extending from the central Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Within the base of a large-scale trough over the north-central CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough and related lift will overspread the boundary during the overnight/early morning hours. The associated low-level mass response will favor the east-northeastward movement of a weak frontal-wave low along the boundary -- promoting isolated to widely scattered elevated thunderstorms atop the frontal surface in the 06-12Z time frame (generally focused over eastern IA and northwest IL). Around 30-40 kt of effective shear could lead to a couple embedded cells capable of small to marginally severe hail initially, though the steeper midlevel lapse-rate plume and favorable instability should be displaced to the south of this activity -- generally limiting the severe threat. ..Weinman.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 031630Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight. ...Synopsis/Discussion... Morning surface observations depict a southwest/northeast-oriented quasi-stationary boundary extending from the central Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Within the base of a large-scale trough over the north-central CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough and related lift will overspread the boundary during the overnight/early morning hours. The associated low-level mass response will favor the east-northeastward movement of a weak frontal-wave low along the boundary -- promoting isolated to widely scattered elevated thunderstorms atop the frontal surface in the 06-12Z time frame (generally focused over eastern IA and northwest IL). Around 30-40 kt of effective shear could lead to a couple embedded cells capable of small to marginally severe hail initially, though the steeper midlevel lapse-rate plume and favorable instability should be displaced to the south of this activity -- generally limiting the severe threat. ..Weinman.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z The previous forecast remains on track. Consideration was made for introducing a risk area to portions of central to northeast NE and far northwest IA for this afternoon. Morning guidance continues to show a strong signal for sustained 20-25 mph winds this afternoon with the potential for gusts up to 30-35 mph. However, most 12 UTC solutions, including several HREF members, are showing a pronounced 5-10 F warm bias across the central Plains based on 15 UTC observations. Solutions that have captured recent temperature/dewpoint trends well suggest RH will only fall to the 25-30% range by late afternoon. Consequently, confidence in sustained elevated conditions remains very limited and precludes risk highlights. Further south across the southern High Plains, elevated wind/RH criteria will likely be met as winds increase on either side of a surface trough. However, fuel dryness does not appear sufficient to support a robust fire concern based on recent fuel guidance. ..Moore.. 10/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0217 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will traverse the western CONUS today. As this occurs, high pressure will also build into the northern Plains. Some breezy conditions are probable this afternoon in the wake of a cold front across the central Plains. However, relative humidities will not be that low (25-30 percent), and the strongest winds will likely be displaced south of the driest fuels. Therefore, no Elevated area is warranted today. However, warm and dry conditions will prevail across most of the western CONUS and result in continued drying of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1021 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 031700Z - 041200Z The previous forecast remains on track. Consideration was made for introducing a risk area to portions of central to northeast NE and far northwest IA for this afternoon. Morning guidance continues to show a strong signal for sustained 20-25 mph winds this afternoon with the potential for gusts up to 30-35 mph. However, most 12 UTC solutions, including several HREF members, are showing a pronounced 5-10 F warm bias across the central Plains based on 15 UTC observations. Solutions that have captured recent temperature/dewpoint trends well suggest RH will only fall to the 25-30% range by late afternoon. Consequently, confidence in sustained elevated conditions remains very limited and precludes risk highlights. Further south across the southern High Plains, elevated wind/RH criteria will likely be met as winds increase on either side of a surface trough. However, fuel dryness does not appear sufficient to support a robust fire concern based on recent fuel guidance. ..Moore.. 10/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0217 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... Shortwave ridging will traverse the western CONUS today. As this occurs, high pressure will also build into the northern Plains. Some breezy conditions are probable this afternoon in the wake of a cold front across the central Plains. However, relative humidities will not be that low (25-30 percent), and the strongest winds will likely be displaced south of the driest fuels. Therefore, no Elevated area is warranted today. However, warm and dry conditions will prevail across most of the western CONUS and result in continued drying of fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more