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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. However, a few strong storms are expected over parts of Iowa tonight. ...20Z Update... Scattered storms persist across the central FL Peninsula within a moist easterly flow regime south of the upper ridge. Moderate instability may support locally strong gusts within the diurnal and weakly sheared regime. To the west, a small area of strong thunderstorm potential is forecast from IA into northwest IL after 06Z, in association with a shortwave trough moving across the upper MS Valley. Lift near the 850 mb front along with steepening lapse rates may yield an elevated cluster of storms forming over south-central IA. Radar presentation of the initial activity may indicate hail in the strongest storm cores, but this may be short lived due to merging updrafts over time. While severe hail is not currently forecast, at least small hail appears likely. ..Jewell.. 10/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... Morning surface observations depict a southwest/northeast-oriented quasi-stationary boundary extending from the central Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Within the base of a large-scale trough over the north-central CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough and related lift will overspread the boundary during the overnight/early morning hours. The associated low-level mass response will favor the east-northeastward movement of a weak frontal-wave low along the boundary -- promoting isolated to widely scattered elevated thunderstorms atop the frontal surface in the 06-12Z time frame (generally focused over eastern IA and northwest IL). Around 30-40 kt of effective shear could lead to a couple embedded cells capable of small to marginally severe hail initially, though the steeper midlevel lapse-rate plume and favorable instability should be displaced to the south of this activity -- generally limiting the severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. However, a few strong storms are expected over parts of Iowa tonight. ...20Z Update... Scattered storms persist across the central FL Peninsula within a moist easterly flow regime south of the upper ridge. Moderate instability may support locally strong gusts within the diurnal and weakly sheared regime. To the west, a small area of strong thunderstorm potential is forecast from IA into northwest IL after 06Z, in association with a shortwave trough moving across the upper MS Valley. Lift near the 850 mb front along with steepening lapse rates may yield an elevated cluster of storms forming over south-central IA. Radar presentation of the initial activity may indicate hail in the strongest storm cores, but this may be short lived due to merging updrafts over time. While severe hail is not currently forecast, at least small hail appears likely. ..Jewell.. 10/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... Morning surface observations depict a southwest/northeast-oriented quasi-stationary boundary extending from the central Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Within the base of a large-scale trough over the north-central CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough and related lift will overspread the boundary during the overnight/early morning hours. The associated low-level mass response will favor the east-northeastward movement of a weak frontal-wave low along the boundary -- promoting isolated to widely scattered elevated thunderstorms atop the frontal surface in the 06-12Z time frame (generally focused over eastern IA and northwest IL). Around 30-40 kt of effective shear could lead to a couple embedded cells capable of small to marginally severe hail initially, though the steeper midlevel lapse-rate plume and favorable instability should be displaced to the south of this activity -- generally limiting the severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. However, a few strong storms are expected over parts of Iowa tonight. ...20Z Update... Scattered storms persist across the central FL Peninsula within a moist easterly flow regime south of the upper ridge. Moderate instability may support locally strong gusts within the diurnal and weakly sheared regime. To the west, a small area of strong thunderstorm potential is forecast from IA into northwest IL after 06Z, in association with a shortwave trough moving across the upper MS Valley. Lift near the 850 mb front along with steepening lapse rates may yield an elevated cluster of storms forming over south-central IA. Radar presentation of the initial activity may indicate hail in the strongest storm cores, but this may be short lived due to merging updrafts over time. While severe hail is not currently forecast, at least small hail appears likely. ..Jewell.. 10/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... Morning surface observations depict a southwest/northeast-oriented quasi-stationary boundary extending from the central Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Within the base of a large-scale trough over the north-central CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough and related lift will overspread the boundary during the overnight/early morning hours. The associated low-level mass response will favor the east-northeastward movement of a weak frontal-wave low along the boundary -- promoting isolated to widely scattered elevated thunderstorms atop the frontal surface in the 06-12Z time frame (generally focused over eastern IA and northwest IL). Around 30-40 kt of effective shear could lead to a couple embedded cells capable of small to marginally severe hail initially, though the steeper midlevel lapse-rate plume and favorable instability should be displaced to the south of this activity -- generally limiting the severe threat. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast. However, a few strong storms are expected over parts of Iowa tonight. ...20Z Update... Scattered storms persist across the central FL Peninsula within a moist easterly flow regime south of the upper ridge. Moderate instability may support locally strong gusts within the diurnal and weakly sheared regime. To the west, a small area of strong thunderstorm potential is forecast from IA into northwest IL after 06Z, in association with a shortwave trough moving across the upper MS Valley. Lift near the 850 mb front along with steepening lapse rates may yield an elevated cluster of storms forming over south-central IA. Radar presentation of the initial activity may indicate hail in the strongest storm cores, but this may be short lived due to merging updrafts over time. While severe hail is not currently forecast, at least small hail appears likely. ..Jewell.. 10/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024/ ...Synopsis/Discussion... Morning surface observations depict a southwest/northeast-oriented quasi-stationary boundary extending from the central Plains into the Mid/Upper MS Valley. Within the base of a large-scale trough over the north-central CONUS, an embedded shortwave trough and related lift will overspread the boundary during the overnight/early morning hours. The associated low-level mass response will favor the east-northeastward movement of a weak frontal-wave low along the boundary -- promoting isolated to widely scattered elevated thunderstorms atop the frontal surface in the 06-12Z time frame (generally focused over eastern IA and northwest IL). Around 30-40 kt of effective shear could lead to a couple embedded cells capable of small to marginally severe hail initially, though the steeper midlevel lapse-rate plume and favorable instability should be displaced to the south of this activity -- generally limiting the severe threat. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe storms appears low on Saturday. ...Discussion... A strong mid-level short-wave trough within fast northern-stream flow over the northern U.S. will cross the northern Plains and eventually move into the Upper Great Lakes region Saturday. Accompanying this trough, a surface low will advance quickly across the Canadian Prairie while a trailing cold front shifts southeastward across the northern and eventually the central Plains, and the Upper Midwest region, through the period. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms should again affect southeastern Atlantic and Gulf Coast areas, while showers and thunderstorms also evolve during the afternoon and evening across the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes area. Here, modest low-level moisture but steepening mid-level lapse rates suggests that convection should remain largely elevated atop a weakly stable boundary layer. Still, with strong west-southwesterly flow through the lower half of the troposphere, a few stronger updrafts -- possibly capable of producing hail or even locally gusty winds -- may occur. At this time, any risk for severe-caliber events appears likely to remain low, and thus no hail/wind probabilities will be included at this time. ..Goss.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe storms appears low on Saturday. ...Discussion... A strong mid-level short-wave trough within fast northern-stream flow over the northern U.S. will cross the northern Plains and eventually move into the Upper Great Lakes region Saturday. Accompanying this trough, a surface low will advance quickly across the Canadian Prairie while a trailing cold front shifts southeastward across the northern and eventually the central Plains, and the Upper Midwest region, through the period. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms should again affect southeastern Atlantic and Gulf Coast areas, while showers and thunderstorms also evolve during the afternoon and evening across the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes area. Here, modest low-level moisture but steepening mid-level lapse rates suggests that convection should remain largely elevated atop a weakly stable boundary layer. Still, with strong west-southwesterly flow through the lower half of the troposphere, a few stronger updrafts -- possibly capable of producing hail or even locally gusty winds -- may occur. At this time, any risk for severe-caliber events appears likely to remain low, and thus no hail/wind probabilities will be included at this time. ..Goss.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe storms appears low on Saturday. ...Discussion... A strong mid-level short-wave trough within fast northern-stream flow over the northern U.S. will cross the northern Plains and eventually move into the Upper Great Lakes region Saturday. Accompanying this trough, a surface low will advance quickly across the Canadian Prairie while a trailing cold front shifts southeastward across the northern and eventually the central Plains, and the Upper Midwest region, through the period. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms should again affect southeastern Atlantic and Gulf Coast areas, while showers and thunderstorms also evolve during the afternoon and evening across the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes area. Here, modest low-level moisture but steepening mid-level lapse rates suggests that convection should remain largely elevated atop a weakly stable boundary layer. Still, with strong west-southwesterly flow through the lower half of the troposphere, a few stronger updrafts -- possibly capable of producing hail or even locally gusty winds -- may occur. At this time, any risk for severe-caliber events appears likely to remain low, and thus no hail/wind probabilities will be included at this time. ..Goss.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe storms appears low on Saturday. ...Discussion... A strong mid-level short-wave trough within fast northern-stream flow over the northern U.S. will cross the northern Plains and eventually move into the Upper Great Lakes region Saturday. Accompanying this trough, a surface low will advance quickly across the Canadian Prairie while a trailing cold front shifts southeastward across the northern and eventually the central Plains, and the Upper Midwest region, through the period. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms should again affect southeastern Atlantic and Gulf Coast areas, while showers and thunderstorms also evolve during the afternoon and evening across the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes area. Here, modest low-level moisture but steepening mid-level lapse rates suggests that convection should remain largely elevated atop a weakly stable boundary layer. Still, with strong west-southwesterly flow through the lower half of the troposphere, a few stronger updrafts -- possibly capable of producing hail or even locally gusty winds -- may occur. At this time, any risk for severe-caliber events appears likely to remain low, and thus no hail/wind probabilities will be included at this time. ..Goss.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe storms appears low on Saturday. ...Discussion... A strong mid-level short-wave trough within fast northern-stream flow over the northern U.S. will cross the northern Plains and eventually move into the Upper Great Lakes region Saturday. Accompanying this trough, a surface low will advance quickly across the Canadian Prairie while a trailing cold front shifts southeastward across the northern and eventually the central Plains, and the Upper Midwest region, through the period. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms should again affect southeastern Atlantic and Gulf Coast areas, while showers and thunderstorms also evolve during the afternoon and evening across the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes area. Here, modest low-level moisture but steepening mid-level lapse rates suggests that convection should remain largely elevated atop a weakly stable boundary layer. Still, with strong west-southwesterly flow through the lower half of the troposphere, a few stronger updrafts -- possibly capable of producing hail or even locally gusty winds -- may occur. At this time, any risk for severe-caliber events appears likely to remain low, and thus no hail/wind probabilities will be included at this time. ..Goss.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe storms appears low on Saturday. ...Discussion... A strong mid-level short-wave trough within fast northern-stream flow over the northern U.S. will cross the northern Plains and eventually move into the Upper Great Lakes region Saturday. Accompanying this trough, a surface low will advance quickly across the Canadian Prairie while a trailing cold front shifts southeastward across the northern and eventually the central Plains, and the Upper Midwest region, through the period. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms should again affect southeastern Atlantic and Gulf Coast areas, while showers and thunderstorms also evolve during the afternoon and evening across the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes area. Here, modest low-level moisture but steepening mid-level lapse rates suggests that convection should remain largely elevated atop a weakly stable boundary layer. Still, with strong west-southwesterly flow through the lower half of the troposphere, a few stronger updrafts -- possibly capable of producing hail or even locally gusty winds -- may occur. At this time, any risk for severe-caliber events appears likely to remain low, and thus no hail/wind probabilities will be included at this time. ..Goss.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Potential for severe storms appears low on Saturday. ...Discussion... A strong mid-level short-wave trough within fast northern-stream flow over the northern U.S. will cross the northern Plains and eventually move into the Upper Great Lakes region Saturday. Accompanying this trough, a surface low will advance quickly across the Canadian Prairie while a trailing cold front shifts southeastward across the northern and eventually the central Plains, and the Upper Midwest region, through the period. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms should again affect southeastern Atlantic and Gulf Coast areas, while showers and thunderstorms also evolve during the afternoon and evening across the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes area. Here, modest low-level moisture but steepening mid-level lapse rates suggests that convection should remain largely elevated atop a weakly stable boundary layer. Still, with strong west-southwesterly flow through the lower half of the troposphere, a few stronger updrafts -- possibly capable of producing hail or even locally gusty winds -- may occur. At this time, any risk for severe-caliber events appears likely to remain low, and thus no hail/wind probabilities will be included at this time. ..Goss.. 10/03/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC NORTHWEST... The primary adjustment for this forecast update was a consolidation of the separate Elevated risk areas. Latest forecast guidance continues to trend towards increasing winds across much of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. As such, dry and windy downslope conditions are expected in the lee of most prominent mountain ranges across the region. While some gaps in dry/windy conditions are anticipated, the majority of the northern Rockies will see the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Consideration was given for additional Critical risk areas across southwest MT and central WY, but the strongest winds will likely remain somewhat confined to the lee of terrain features, casting some uncertainty into the coverage of critical conditions. An expansion of the Elevated risk area across central to eastern MT was also considered as the cold front pushes east overnight. While drier solutions hint that elevated conditions are possible in the immediate wake of the front, ensemble guidance shows muted probabilities (30-40%) for reaching elevated criteria (likely due to the influence of nocturnal cooling). Trends will continue to be monitored for additional risk highlights across these regions. ..Moore.. 10/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will approach and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest on Friday. Ahead of this trough, a strong surface cyclone will develop in Alberta, which will result in a tightening surface pressure gradient across much of the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. In addition, 60+ mph of mid-level flow will move across the Northwest and northern Great Basin. This stronger mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across southeast Oregon and northern Nevada and vicinity, which will result in even stronger winds across this region. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected with relative humidity ranging from 15 percent to 25 percent. Given the critically dry nature of the fuels in this area, a Critical delineation was warranted. As the pressure gradient tightens across the northern Rockies and northern Plains, strong winds are expected to develop both across southern Wyoming and from the Nebraska Panhandle northward across the western Dakotas. Single-digit relative humidities are forecast across southern Wyoming with 15 to 25 percent relative humidity in the Plains. An Elevated delineation is warranted for both areas, and if winds trend stronger in Wyoming or relative humidity drier in the Plains, a Critical area may also need to be considered in these areas in later outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC NORTHWEST... The primary adjustment for this forecast update was a consolidation of the separate Elevated risk areas. Latest forecast guidance continues to trend towards increasing winds across much of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. As such, dry and windy downslope conditions are expected in the lee of most prominent mountain ranges across the region. While some gaps in dry/windy conditions are anticipated, the majority of the northern Rockies will see the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Consideration was given for additional Critical risk areas across southwest MT and central WY, but the strongest winds will likely remain somewhat confined to the lee of terrain features, casting some uncertainty into the coverage of critical conditions. An expansion of the Elevated risk area across central to eastern MT was also considered as the cold front pushes east overnight. While drier solutions hint that elevated conditions are possible in the immediate wake of the front, ensemble guidance shows muted probabilities (30-40%) for reaching elevated criteria (likely due to the influence of nocturnal cooling). Trends will continue to be monitored for additional risk highlights across these regions. ..Moore.. 10/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will approach and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest on Friday. Ahead of this trough, a strong surface cyclone will develop in Alberta, which will result in a tightening surface pressure gradient across much of the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. In addition, 60+ mph of mid-level flow will move across the Northwest and northern Great Basin. This stronger mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across southeast Oregon and northern Nevada and vicinity, which will result in even stronger winds across this region. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected with relative humidity ranging from 15 percent to 25 percent. Given the critically dry nature of the fuels in this area, a Critical delineation was warranted. As the pressure gradient tightens across the northern Rockies and northern Plains, strong winds are expected to develop both across southern Wyoming and from the Nebraska Panhandle northward across the western Dakotas. Single-digit relative humidities are forecast across southern Wyoming with 15 to 25 percent relative humidity in the Plains. An Elevated delineation is warranted for both areas, and if winds trend stronger in Wyoming or relative humidity drier in the Plains, a Critical area may also need to be considered in these areas in later outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC NORTHWEST... The primary adjustment for this forecast update was a consolidation of the separate Elevated risk areas. Latest forecast guidance continues to trend towards increasing winds across much of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. As such, dry and windy downslope conditions are expected in the lee of most prominent mountain ranges across the region. While some gaps in dry/windy conditions are anticipated, the majority of the northern Rockies will see the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Consideration was given for additional Critical risk areas across southwest MT and central WY, but the strongest winds will likely remain somewhat confined to the lee of terrain features, casting some uncertainty into the coverage of critical conditions. An expansion of the Elevated risk area across central to eastern MT was also considered as the cold front pushes east overnight. While drier solutions hint that elevated conditions are possible in the immediate wake of the front, ensemble guidance shows muted probabilities (30-40%) for reaching elevated criteria (likely due to the influence of nocturnal cooling). Trends will continue to be monitored for additional risk highlights across these regions. ..Moore.. 10/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will approach and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest on Friday. Ahead of this trough, a strong surface cyclone will develop in Alberta, which will result in a tightening surface pressure gradient across much of the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. In addition, 60+ mph of mid-level flow will move across the Northwest and northern Great Basin. This stronger mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across southeast Oregon and northern Nevada and vicinity, which will result in even stronger winds across this region. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected with relative humidity ranging from 15 percent to 25 percent. Given the critically dry nature of the fuels in this area, a Critical delineation was warranted. As the pressure gradient tightens across the northern Rockies and northern Plains, strong winds are expected to develop both across southern Wyoming and from the Nebraska Panhandle northward across the western Dakotas. Single-digit relative humidities are forecast across southern Wyoming with 15 to 25 percent relative humidity in the Plains. An Elevated delineation is warranted for both areas, and if winds trend stronger in Wyoming or relative humidity drier in the Plains, a Critical area may also need to be considered in these areas in later outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC NORTHWEST... The primary adjustment for this forecast update was a consolidation of the separate Elevated risk areas. Latest forecast guidance continues to trend towards increasing winds across much of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. As such, dry and windy downslope conditions are expected in the lee of most prominent mountain ranges across the region. While some gaps in dry/windy conditions are anticipated, the majority of the northern Rockies will see the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Consideration was given for additional Critical risk areas across southwest MT and central WY, but the strongest winds will likely remain somewhat confined to the lee of terrain features, casting some uncertainty into the coverage of critical conditions. An expansion of the Elevated risk area across central to eastern MT was also considered as the cold front pushes east overnight. While drier solutions hint that elevated conditions are possible in the immediate wake of the front, ensemble guidance shows muted probabilities (30-40%) for reaching elevated criteria (likely due to the influence of nocturnal cooling). Trends will continue to be monitored for additional risk highlights across these regions. ..Moore.. 10/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will approach and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest on Friday. Ahead of this trough, a strong surface cyclone will develop in Alberta, which will result in a tightening surface pressure gradient across much of the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. In addition, 60+ mph of mid-level flow will move across the Northwest and northern Great Basin. This stronger mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across southeast Oregon and northern Nevada and vicinity, which will result in even stronger winds across this region. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected with relative humidity ranging from 15 percent to 25 percent. Given the critically dry nature of the fuels in this area, a Critical delineation was warranted. As the pressure gradient tightens across the northern Rockies and northern Plains, strong winds are expected to develop both across southern Wyoming and from the Nebraska Panhandle northward across the western Dakotas. Single-digit relative humidities are forecast across southern Wyoming with 15 to 25 percent relative humidity in the Plains. An Elevated delineation is warranted for both areas, and if winds trend stronger in Wyoming or relative humidity drier in the Plains, a Critical area may also need to be considered in these areas in later outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC NORTHWEST... The primary adjustment for this forecast update was a consolidation of the separate Elevated risk areas. Latest forecast guidance continues to trend towards increasing winds across much of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. As such, dry and windy downslope conditions are expected in the lee of most prominent mountain ranges across the region. While some gaps in dry/windy conditions are anticipated, the majority of the northern Rockies will see the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Consideration was given for additional Critical risk areas across southwest MT and central WY, but the strongest winds will likely remain somewhat confined to the lee of terrain features, casting some uncertainty into the coverage of critical conditions. An expansion of the Elevated risk area across central to eastern MT was also considered as the cold front pushes east overnight. While drier solutions hint that elevated conditions are possible in the immediate wake of the front, ensemble guidance shows muted probabilities (30-40%) for reaching elevated criteria (likely due to the influence of nocturnal cooling). Trends will continue to be monitored for additional risk highlights across these regions. ..Moore.. 10/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will approach and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest on Friday. Ahead of this trough, a strong surface cyclone will develop in Alberta, which will result in a tightening surface pressure gradient across much of the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. In addition, 60+ mph of mid-level flow will move across the Northwest and northern Great Basin. This stronger mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across southeast Oregon and northern Nevada and vicinity, which will result in even stronger winds across this region. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected with relative humidity ranging from 15 percent to 25 percent. Given the critically dry nature of the fuels in this area, a Critical delineation was warranted. As the pressure gradient tightens across the northern Rockies and northern Plains, strong winds are expected to develop both across southern Wyoming and from the Nebraska Panhandle northward across the western Dakotas. Single-digit relative humidities are forecast across southern Wyoming with 15 to 25 percent relative humidity in the Plains. An Elevated delineation is warranted for both areas, and if winds trend stronger in Wyoming or relative humidity drier in the Plains, a Critical area may also need to be considered in these areas in later outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC NORTHWEST... The primary adjustment for this forecast update was a consolidation of the separate Elevated risk areas. Latest forecast guidance continues to trend towards increasing winds across much of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. As such, dry and windy downslope conditions are expected in the lee of most prominent mountain ranges across the region. While some gaps in dry/windy conditions are anticipated, the majority of the northern Rockies will see the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Consideration was given for additional Critical risk areas across southwest MT and central WY, but the strongest winds will likely remain somewhat confined to the lee of terrain features, casting some uncertainty into the coverage of critical conditions. An expansion of the Elevated risk area across central to eastern MT was also considered as the cold front pushes east overnight. While drier solutions hint that elevated conditions are possible in the immediate wake of the front, ensemble guidance shows muted probabilities (30-40%) for reaching elevated criteria (likely due to the influence of nocturnal cooling). Trends will continue to be monitored for additional risk highlights across these regions. ..Moore.. 10/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will approach and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest on Friday. Ahead of this trough, a strong surface cyclone will develop in Alberta, which will result in a tightening surface pressure gradient across much of the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. In addition, 60+ mph of mid-level flow will move across the Northwest and northern Great Basin. This stronger mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across southeast Oregon and northern Nevada and vicinity, which will result in even stronger winds across this region. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected with relative humidity ranging from 15 percent to 25 percent. Given the critically dry nature of the fuels in this area, a Critical delineation was warranted. As the pressure gradient tightens across the northern Rockies and northern Plains, strong winds are expected to develop both across southern Wyoming and from the Nebraska Panhandle northward across the western Dakotas. Single-digit relative humidities are forecast across southern Wyoming with 15 to 25 percent relative humidity in the Plains. An Elevated delineation is warranted for both areas, and if winds trend stronger in Wyoming or relative humidity drier in the Plains, a Critical area may also need to be considered in these areas in later outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0128 PM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHEASTERN PACIFIC NORTHWEST... The primary adjustment for this forecast update was a consolidation of the separate Elevated risk areas. Latest forecast guidance continues to trend towards increasing winds across much of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. As such, dry and windy downslope conditions are expected in the lee of most prominent mountain ranges across the region. While some gaps in dry/windy conditions are anticipated, the majority of the northern Rockies will see the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Consideration was given for additional Critical risk areas across southwest MT and central WY, but the strongest winds will likely remain somewhat confined to the lee of terrain features, casting some uncertainty into the coverage of critical conditions. An expansion of the Elevated risk area across central to eastern MT was also considered as the cold front pushes east overnight. While drier solutions hint that elevated conditions are possible in the immediate wake of the front, ensemble guidance shows muted probabilities (30-40%) for reaching elevated criteria (likely due to the influence of nocturnal cooling). Trends will continue to be monitored for additional risk highlights across these regions. ..Moore.. 10/03/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0221 AM CDT Thu Oct 03 2024/ ...Synopsis... A strong mid-level trough will approach and eventually overspread the Pacific Northwest on Friday. Ahead of this trough, a strong surface cyclone will develop in Alberta, which will result in a tightening surface pressure gradient across much of the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies. In addition, 60+ mph of mid-level flow will move across the Northwest and northern Great Basin. This stronger mid-level flow will overspread a deeply mixed airmass across southeast Oregon and northern Nevada and vicinity, which will result in even stronger winds across this region. Sustained winds of 25 to 30 mph are expected with relative humidity ranging from 15 percent to 25 percent. Given the critically dry nature of the fuels in this area, a Critical delineation was warranted. As the pressure gradient tightens across the northern Rockies and northern Plains, strong winds are expected to develop both across southern Wyoming and from the Nebraska Panhandle northward across the western Dakotas. Single-digit relative humidities are forecast across southern Wyoming with 15 to 25 percent relative humidity in the Plains. An Elevated delineation is warranted for both areas, and if winds trend stronger in Wyoming or relative humidity drier in the Plains, a Critical area may also need to be considered in these areas in later outlooks. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 031732
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Oct 3 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Eleven-E, located near the coast of southeastern
Mexico.

Western Portion of the East Pacific (EP98):
A low pressure system located well to the west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Some limited
development is possible while the low moves slowly northward or
north-northeastward during the next couple of days. Atmospheric
conditions should become less conducive and prevent further
development by the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

Offshore of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form off the coast of southwestern
Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Thereafter,
some slow development is possible while the system drifts
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly/E.Adams

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 17:33:30 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2024 15:34:50 GMT